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000
FXUS64 KLCH 231006
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13





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000
FXUS64 KLIX 230849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH OF THE LAKE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S...TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN. EURO HAS
SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE
IS THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A CLEANER/STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE EURO...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. LUCKILY THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...SO A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY ABATE TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET
OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  77  56  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





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000
FXUS64 KSHV 230800
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 230458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 23/06Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV FROM THE WEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO
ALL THE TAF SITES BY 12Z. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BECOME
SKC BY 24/01Z AT ALL SITES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE BETWEEN 3 TO 6
KNOTS AREA WIDE...EXCEPT AT TYR...WHERE WINDS ARE ESE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME ESE BY 24/02Z AT GGG/TXK. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA FROM
OK/TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE TROUGH AND ARE JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. RAISED MIN
TEMP FCST AREAWIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  75  49  80  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  47  75  46  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  48  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10  10   0
TXK  50  73  49  80  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ELD  46  73  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
TYR  55  77  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  53  76  52  81  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  53  80  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/09/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 23/06Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV FROM THE WEST AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO
ALL THE TAF SITES BY 12Z. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BECOME
SKC BY 24/01Z AT ALL SITES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE BETWEEN 3 TO 6
KNOTS AREA WIDE...EXCEPT AT TYR...WHERE WINDS ARE ESE. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME ESE BY 24/02Z AT GGG/TXK. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA FROM
OK/TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE TROUGH AND ARE JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. RAISED MIN
TEMP FCST AREAWIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  75  49  80  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  47  75  46  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  48  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10  10   0
TXK  50  73  49  80  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ELD  46  73  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
TYR  55  77  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  53  76  52  81  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  53  80  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/09/13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230453
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY
AS ITS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE VA/MD/NJ COASTLINES. A WEAKER TROUGH
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NERN ZONES. SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR THOSE AREAS AND HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST LOWS WHICH WERE RIGHT INLINE WITH THAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING AND COULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 35

MARINE...

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR
PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE AREA IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230453
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY
AS ITS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE VA/MD/NJ COASTLINES. A WEAKER TROUGH
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NERN ZONES. SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR THOSE AREAS AND HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST LOWS WHICH WERE RIGHT INLINE WITH THAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING AND COULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 35

MARINE...

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR
PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE AREA IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230251 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
951 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA FROM
OK/TX AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE TROUGH AND ARE JUST W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF AN IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. FCST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT DID MAKE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. RAISED MIN
TEMP FCST AREAWIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON THE EXPECTED
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 23/00Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING SCATTERED BY 18Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KNOTS AREA WIDE...WITH
TYR/GGG BECOMING ESE AFTER 06Z. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  75  49  80  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  47  75  46  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  48  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10  10   0
TXK  50  73  49  80  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ELD  46  73  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
TYR  55  77  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  53  76  52  81  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  53  80  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/20/13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME CIRRUS CURRENTLY AS FAR EAST AS BRYAN AND CORSICANA
TX WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW
POINTS AROUND CEN LA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PROGGED. SOME COOLER AIR AROUND BATON ROUGE LOOKS POISED TO MOVE
INTO S CEN LA. TWEAKED TEMPS UP AROUND ALEXANDRIA AND LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE AND FILTER COOLER AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THU...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...TO
LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES THU AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND EXPECTED. WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.

DML

MARINE...
NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RE-INFORCING HIGH AND TD#9 IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NE
WINDS ~15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING A BIT...MAINLY
REMAINING NE 10-15 KTS THROUGH EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING FURTHER AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S WINDS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  79  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  57  79  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  52  76  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  79  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME CIRRUS CURRENTLY AS FAR EAST AS BRYAN AND CORSICANA
TX WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEW
POINTS AROUND CEN LA ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PROGGED. SOME COOLER AIR AROUND BATON ROUGE LOOKS POISED TO MOVE
INTO S CEN LA. TWEAKED TEMPS UP AROUND ALEXANDRIA AND LOWERED
TEMPS IN THE LAFAYETTE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE AND FILTER COOLER AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THU...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...TO
LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES THU AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND EXPECTED. WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.

DML

MARINE...
NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RE-INFORCING HIGH AND TD#9 IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NE
WINDS ~15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING A BIT...MAINLY
REMAINING NE 10-15 KTS THROUGH EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING FURTHER AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S WINDS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  54  79  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  57  79  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  52  76  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  79  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230019
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE AND FILTER COOLER AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THU...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...TO
LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES THU AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND EXPECTED. WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.

DML

MARINE...
NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RE-INFORCING HIGH AND TD#9 IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NE
WINDS ~15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING A BIT...MAINLY
REMAINING NE 10-15 KTS THROUGH EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING FURTHER AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S WINDS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  77  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  58  77  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  75  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  53  77  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230019
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
719 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE AND FILTER COOLER AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THU...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...TO
LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES THU AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND EXPECTED. WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.

DML

MARINE...
NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RE-INFORCING HIGH AND TD#9 IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NE
WINDS ~15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING A BIT...MAINLY
REMAINING NE 10-15 KTS THROUGH EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING FURTHER AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S WINDS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  77  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  58  77  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  75  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  53  77  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 222352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 23/00Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING SCATTERED BY 18Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KNOTS AREA WIDE...WITH
TYR/GGG BECOMING ESE AFTER 06Z. /20/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  49  80  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  46  75  46  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  47  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10  10   0
TXK  49  73  49  80  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ELD  45  73  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
TYR  54  77  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  52  76  52  81  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  52  80  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222352
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 23/00Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. BKN CIGS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KFT CAN BE
EXPECTED BY 12Z ACROSS THE REGION...BECOMING SCATTERED BY 18Z.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ENE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KNOTS AREA WIDE...WITH
TYR/GGG BECOMING ESE AFTER 06Z. /20/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  49  80  53 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  46  75  46  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  47  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10  10   0
TXK  49  73  49  80  54 /  10  20  10  10   0
ELD  45  73  44  78  50 /  10  10  10  10   0
TYR  54  77  54  82  59 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  52  76  52  81  56 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  52  80  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY
AS ITS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE VA/MD/NJ COASTLINES. A WEAKER TROUGH
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NERN ZONES. SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR THOSE AREAS AND HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST LOWS WHICH WERE RIGHT INLINE WITH THAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING AND COULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR
PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE AREA IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW WRAPPING UP TIGHTLY
AS ITS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE VA/MD/NJ COASTLINES. A WEAKER TROUGH
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND
OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE HAS
LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 2 MORNINGS.
THIS IS A PRIME SETUP FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN NERN ZONES. SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S FOR THOSE AREAS AND HAVE
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST LOWS WHICH WERE RIGHT INLINE WITH THAT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE AND THUS ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WELL
OFFSHORE.

MODELS SHOW THAT THIS UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING AND COULD SEE
RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AS WELL AS CHANDELEUR AND BRETON
SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS FOR
PART OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE MARINE AREA IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  75  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  51  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  48  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  76  56  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  52  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221929
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
229 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS LARGE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE AND FILTER COOLER AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT
INTO THU...EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...TO
LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS THU GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES THU AFTERNOON
THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND EXPECTED. WITH
DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES
OCCURRED FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINED TIGHTER BETWEEN THE RE-INFORCING HIGH AND TD#9 IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...NE
WINDS ~15 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING A BIT...MAINLY
REMAINING NE 10-15 KTS THROUGH EARLY FRI...DIMINISHING FURTHER AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S WINDS RETURNING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  77  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  58  77  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  75  50  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  53  77  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 221905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST
TEXAS...WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND INTO ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. WE WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND SOME OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS IN TX
AND AR...BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE ARGUES FOR KEEPING POPS AT 20
PERCENT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT ONLY SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MID
70S.

THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL
EXPAND AND INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST OVER THE
AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING BY MONDAY. MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOT
STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AFTER
TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOK ADEQUATE
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH FRONTAL LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...
MAINLY FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

GP/FWD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  49  80  53 /   0  10  10   0   0
MLU  46  75  46  78  50 /   0  10  10   0   0
DEQ  47  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10   0   0
TXK  49  73  49  80  54 /   0  20  10   0   0
ELD  45  73  44  78  50 /   0  10  10   0   0
TYR  54  77  54  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
GGG  52  76  52  81  56 /   0  10  10   0   0
LFK  52  80  51  82  53 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221741
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY DRY
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND HELP VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH...AND TD#9 IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. NW WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRU MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
ONLY KAEX IS CURRENTLY HAVING VIS RESTRICTION, BUT OTHER TERMINALS
MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  80  58  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  49  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  53  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221741
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY DRY
AND LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND HELP VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH...AND TD#9 IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. NW WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRU MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
ONLY KAEX IS CURRENTLY HAVING VIS RESTRICTION, BUT OTHER TERMINALS
MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  80  58  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  49  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  53  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
AND ARKLAMISS REGIONS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROMOTE A
LOW LEVEL E TO ENE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZES SHOULD ALSO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENT IN THE
MORNING FWD AND SHV RAOBS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN VFR CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR LUFKIN WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO MITIGATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...A FEW PERIODS OF
BR/FG MAY DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

99

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN
SHALLOW FOG ACROSS EAST TEXAS UNTIL 14Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME BRIEF CIGS
THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT...MAINLY OVER SE OK...SW AR...AND
NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 16Z. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  77  48  74  48  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  74  48  73  48  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  75  50  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  47  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  56  75  56  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  76  53  75  53  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  78  54  78  54  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221733 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
AND ARKLAMISS REGIONS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL PROMOTE A
LOW LEVEL E TO ENE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THESE BREEZES SHOULD ALSO ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A FEW AREAS OF CU WILL DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX
WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENT IN THE
MORNING FWD AND SHV RAOBS. A FEW PERIODS OF BKN VFR CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR LUFKIN WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SERVE TO MITIGATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. IF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THE CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS...A FEW PERIODS OF
BR/FG MAY DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.

99

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN
SHALLOW FOG ACROSS EAST TEXAS UNTIL 14Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME BRIEF CIGS
THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT...MAINLY OVER SE OK...SW AR...AND
NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 16Z. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  77  48  74  48  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  74  48  73  48  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  75  50  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  47  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  56  75  56  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  76  53  75  53  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  78  54  78  54  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLIX 221723
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO CLOUDINESS BELOW FL150 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS SHOULD FALL BELOW
10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR
TO THE REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT
AND SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 76 TO 83
DEGREE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE AREA AND LOWS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR. THE
EURO IS A MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALSO LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THUS THE SURFACE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY PUSH
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES
DO NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 THROUGH 8 WITH A
HEAVIER RELIANCE ON THE EURO...WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO
FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  OVER THE
WEEKEND...A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.   THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  51  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  52  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 221723
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1223 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LITTLE
OR NO CLOUDINESS BELOW FL150 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS SHOULD FALL BELOW
10 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR
TO THE REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT
AND SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 76 TO 83
DEGREE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE AREA AND LOWS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR. THE
EURO IS A MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALSO LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THUS THE SURFACE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY PUSH
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES
DO NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 THROUGH 8 WITH A
HEAVIER RELIANCE ON THE EURO...WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO
FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  OVER THE
WEEKEND...A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.   THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  51  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  52  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BASICALLY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE GULF COAST WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OFFSHORE...SLIGHTLY
INCREASED GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH...AND TD#9 IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. NW WINDS 15-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS ~25 KTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES CONTINUE THIS
MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THRU MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER
OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
ONLY KAEX IS CURRENTLY HAVING VIS RESTRICTION, BUT OTHER TERMINALS
MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  80  58  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  49  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  53  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 221156
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
656 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY IFR VSBYS IN
SHALLOW FOG ACROSS EAST TEXAS UNTIL 14Z. ALSO EXPECT SOME BRIEF CIGS
THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT...MAINLY OVER SE OK...SW AR...AND
NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 16Z. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  79  47  74  47  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  76  49  73  47  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  77  48  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  76  46  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  79  53  75  53  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  78  51  75  50  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  80  52  78  52  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014


.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING, HOWEVER
ONLY KAEX IS CURRENTLY HAVING VIS RESTRICTION, BUT OTHER TERMINALS
MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF RESTRICTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND THE REST OF THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AREA WIDE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  81  58  78  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  50  75  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  54  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  81  58  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  54  77  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 221012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  81  58  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  54  77  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 220809
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF DRY AIR
TO THE REGION. WITH DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE EFFICIENT
AND SHOULD SEE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT GENERALLY IN THE 76 TO 83
DEGREE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE AREA AND LOWS RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
BY SATURDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE A BIT MORE
SLOWLY GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY. AT
THAT POINT...SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR. THE
EURO IS A MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND PUSHES
THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALSO LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THUS THE SURFACE FRONT DOES NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY PUSH
TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. SINCE THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES
DO NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE
GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON DAYS 6 THROUGH 8 WITH A
HEAVIER RELIANCE ON THE EURO...WHICH IS ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM HPC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL ALSO
FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  OVER THE
WEEKEND...A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN AND
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.   THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL
BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  81  51  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  81  48  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  52  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220758
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LVL DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED POSITION OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS MO BOOTHEEL...WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO
LOWER A FEW DEGREES ACROSS AT LEAST SW AR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL MOISTURE THICKENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVG TOWARDS RED RIVER VALLEY. DAYTIME HIGHS
MAINLY IN UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
ONLY PLAYING LIMITED ROLE MAINLY WEST IN REGARDS TO DAYTIME HIGHS.
HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SHARPER TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH PERHAPS LESS MID
LVL CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS OVER RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING ONLY AS THIS TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NE OF
THE AREA. BIG 592 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY OVER CENTRAL TX
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS TO WARM INTO MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE FOR SAT
AND SUN...AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY. NEXT SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK APPEARS MOSTLY NON SFC BASED AND SLOWER WITH GFS THAN
THE FASTER ECMWF. THINKING BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
WILL KEEP POPS ISOLD NOW FOR EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS ALSO SHOWING
TROPICAL LOW MOVG NWD ACROSS EASTERN GULF...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A SLIGHT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BEYOND END OF EXTENDED...BUT PRECIP
LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  51  75  51  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  79  47  74  47  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  76  49  73  47  81 /   0  10  20  10   0
TXK  77  48  74  50  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  76  46  72  47  78 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  79  53  75  53  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
GGG  78  51  75  50  83 /   0   0  10  10   0
LFK  80  52  78  52  83 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 220515
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 220515
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...

ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
DOMINATES THE GULF SOUTH. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  78  58  76  56 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  45  75  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...ADDED SOME MENTION OF FEW CU FOR BPT AND LCH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE CAVOK WITH A DRY AND LIGHT NE FLOW
FROM LARGE SCALE RIDGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG IN A FEW HOURS AS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING BUT NOT SO MUCH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH MAINTAINING A
COOL AND LIGHT NERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE WHICH IS CORROBORATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A
LITTLE CIRRUS NOTED MAINLY TO OUR WEST WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN FINE
SHAPE AS IS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

25

MARINE...
WITH NRLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FAR SRN GULF...THE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...ADDED SOME MENTION OF FEW CU FOR BPT AND LCH DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE CAVOK WITH A DRY AND LIGHT NE FLOW
FROM LARGE SCALE RIDGING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG IN A FEW HOURS AS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING BUT NOT SO MUCH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH MAINTAINING A
COOL AND LIGHT NERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE WHICH IS CORROBORATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A
LITTLE CIRRUS NOTED MAINLY TO OUR WEST WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN FINE
SHAPE AS IS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

25

MARINE...
WITH NRLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FAR SRN GULF...THE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 220415
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
AS EXPECTED...STARTING TO SEE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ON IR IMAGERY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS HEIGHTS ARE AROUND
4-5KFT AND SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME VSBY ISSUES HOWEVER AT ELD AND MLU WITH 2-5 MILES
BEING OBSERVED ATTM. THE LEADING EDGE OF A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISS ATTM. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGD TO MOVE INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND BACKDOOR ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY THIS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE OR WE COULD SEE VSBYS CONTINUE TO
CRATER. FOR THIS REASON...PREVAILED MVFR VSBYS AT ELD AND MLU WITH
A MUCH LOWER TEMPO GROUP OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY WITH NE WINDS PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS ON
WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220253 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220253 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ROUGHLY OVER THE OK/AR AND TX/LA BORDERS. WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT STILL REMAINS NE OF THE AREA. LATEST WV LOOPS
INDICATE DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE NE AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS S TX. SOME INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES CLOSER. THIS COULD
KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST.
HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THE ARRIVAL OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH COOL AND DRY AIR TO OFFSET THE INCREASED
CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE MIN TEMP FCST INTACT FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEWPOINT/WIND/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 220247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH MAINTAINING A
COOL AND LIGHT NERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE WHICH IS CORROBORATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A
LITTLE CIRRUS NOTED MAINLY TO OUR WEST WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN FINE
SHAPE AS IS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WITH NRLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FAR SRN GULF...THE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER EVENING ONGOING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH MAINTAINING A
COOL AND LIGHT NERLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN TO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE WHICH IS CORROBORATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A
LITTLE CIRRUS NOTED MAINLY TO OUR WEST WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN FINE
SHAPE AS IS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
THIS EVENING.

25

&&

.MARINE...
WITH NRLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FAR SRN GULF...THE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212342
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 212058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLIX 212040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS TO SLOW AS THIS OCCURS AND THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE AT A MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
INVESTIGATING AT THIS TIME. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S TRACK INCREASES
QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPLITTING IN HALF
WITH ONE PORTION BEING PICKED UP WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH AND ANOTHER
BEING LEFT BEHIND. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
LEFTOVER ENERGY. AT THE LEAST IT WOULD BE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN REGIME IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THIS NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND BODIES OF
WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL MOVE THROUGH
KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW.

KEG
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THUS... MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  62  78  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211903
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

JT
$$











000
FXUS64 KSHV 211715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014


.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU BETWEEN
22/08Z-22/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 211708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND
BODIES OF WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL
MOVE THROUGH KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

$$

KEG






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK SHIFTING SWRD THIS MORNING FROM S AR/SE OK HAS
GRADUALLY BEGUN TO ERODE AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA. THE CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURE
RISE OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA.
/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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