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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014


.AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 010930
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010907
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
407 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER WARM AND MOIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH PW`S REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PER THE
GPS-MET DATA.

GUIDANCE DEPICTS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW`S
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVING NORTHWARDS INTO THE AREA TODAY.
TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY NOTED ON AREA
RADARS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF SOUTH LA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

EXPECT THAT ONCE WE GET TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED PER THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. THIS RIBBON OF
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST FOR TUESDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TRYING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THE DRIER AIRMASS...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS AND QPF
POTENTIAL MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH THE BETTER FOCUS.

PW`S REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WITH TYPICAL LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEARLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY LOWERING AS WELL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE OFF AND ON THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  77  90  76  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  77  90  77  91 /  30  20  40  20  20
KAEX  92  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  20  20
KLFT  90  77  91  76  91 /  50  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 010830
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AIRMASS DRIED OUT MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...WITH THE 00Z
LIX SOUNDING SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.
THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS DEW POINTS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MANY AREAS ARE STILL AT 80 DEGREES OR
WARMER AS OF 3 AM. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION
AS OF THE CURRENT TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HRRR
MESOSCALE MODEL A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
BY MIDDAY THAN IS THE WRF. PLANNING ON TAKING A BLENDED APPROACH
ON RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REALIZING THAT EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD BUST A FEW FORECAST HIGHS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST FROM PACKAGE THAT WAS IN PLACE. UPPER
RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER
PATTERN. SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EACH DAY WITH LAND AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES PROVIDING A POTENTIAL
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE EITHER CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN LIGHT FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS BY 10-12Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 15-17Z. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCB
FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND  HAVE INDICATED VCTS IN THE TAFS STARTING AROUND
14Z AT KHUM AND 17-19Z ELSEWHERE...THEN ENDING AT 00Z. A FEW
AIRPORTS MAY LOWER TO MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OCCURRED SINCE LAST EVENING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHEAST WINDS RANGED FROM NEAR 10 KNOTS
ON THE TIDAL LAKES...10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE SOUNDS...AROUND 15
KNOTS OVER EASTERN COASTAL WATERS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS. SEAS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 3 TO 5 FEET RANGE...BUT AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWEST MARINE ZONE MAY HAVE 6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR BELOW
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE...SO WILL DROP THE /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/ HEADLINE.

AS THE INVERTED TROUGHS MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE AREA...SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT...AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 4
FEET TUESDAY MORNING AND 1 TO 3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  74  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
BTR  92  75  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
ASD  92  76  92  75 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  40  20  40  20
GPT  91  77  91  77 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  75  92  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
CLEAR OF ANY INLAND PRECIP WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. GULF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART UPON
MOVING ONSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE. BRINGING
IN VCSH WITHIN MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD MID MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING INTO PROB30S FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING MAX HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 010444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
CLEAR OF ANY INLAND PRECIP WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. GULF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART UPON
MOVING ONSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE. BRINGING
IN VCSH WITHIN MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD MID MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING INTO PROB30S FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING MAX HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 02/00Z. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 010444
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
CLEAR OF ANY INLAND PRECIP WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. GULF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL APART UPON
MOVING ONSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES AFTER SUNRISE. BRINGING
IN VCSH WITHIN MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD MID MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS...TRANSITIONING INTO PROB30S FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING MAX HEATING. ACTIVITY WILL THEN DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVE POP WORDING FROM THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WILL FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE LAST SHOWERS
LONG GONE. STILL HALF OF US UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 70S ASIDE FROM A FEW HOLD OUTS IN NE
TX WHERE THE DAY WAS WARMER AS WELL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON THE SURFACE WITH A LOW LEVEL SW JET DEEP ON OUR
SOUNDING AND VAD WITH LOW STRATUS AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 010249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVE POP WORDING FROM THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET EVENING WILL FADE INTO THE OVERNIGHT THE LAST SHOWERS
LONG GONE. STILL HALF OF US UNDER THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 70S ASIDE FROM A FEW HOLD OUTS IN NE
TX WHERE THE DAY WAS WARMER AS WELL. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON THE SURFACE WITH A LOW LEVEL SW JET DEEP ON OUR
SOUNDING AND VAD WITH LOW STRATUS AREA WIDE BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  10  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  10  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  10  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 010145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TWEAKED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS AS PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMP TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...BUT DID NOT CHANGE EXPECTED LOW TEMPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 312339
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 312339
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AND
WILL BE GONE BY 02Z. EXPECTING MONDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  50  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 312333 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS 11-15Z. GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. HAVE
VCTS BEGINNING 15-17Z FOR KHUM/KMSY/KNEW AND AROUND 19Z FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES OF
1-3SM...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE IN TSRA MONDAY AFTN.

14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SAT/RADAR NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE RADAR...A ROUGE SHOWER TRIED
TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS WEAKENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SAME
PATTERNS IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE NOT STRAYED AWAY FROM
LAST ISSUANCE. THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING AND THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. MAIN PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN A FEW
SPOTS. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST GULF. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF ASSOCIATED INVERTED/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WEST GULF AND
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER EASTERN WATERS. WILL INSERT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/HEADLINES TONIGHT.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  74  91 /  30  40  40  40
BTR  74  91  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
ASD  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  30  30
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  40
GPT  77  91  77  91 /  20  30  30  30
PQL  73  91  75  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 312333 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  14/MM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS 11-15Z. GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY. HAVE
VCTS BEGINNING 15-17Z FOR KHUM/KMSY/KNEW AND AROUND 19Z FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES OF
1-3SM...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE IN TSRA MONDAY AFTN.

14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SAT/RADAR NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE RADAR...A ROUGE SHOWER TRIED
TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS WEAKENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SAME
PATTERNS IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE NOT STRAYED AWAY FROM
LAST ISSUANCE. THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING AND THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. MAIN PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN A FEW
SPOTS. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST GULF. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF ASSOCIATED INVERTED/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WEST GULF AND
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER EASTERN WATERS. WILL INSERT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/HEADLINES TONIGHT.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  74  91 /  30  40  40  40
BTR  74  91  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
ASD  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  30  30
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  40
GPT  77  91  77  91 /  20  30  30  30
PQL  73  91  75  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 312318
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 312318
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM 01/10Z TO 01/14Z ACROSS
LFK/MLU/SHV/GGG/ELD TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AROSS LFK/MLU/ELD/SHV/GGG TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 312108
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
REBUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS KEPT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
SAT/RADAR NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE RADAR...A ROUGE SHOWER TRIED
TO DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
IS WEAKENING. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE SAME
PATTERNS IN THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. HAVE NOT STRAYED AWAY FROM
LAST ISSUANCE. THE GFS AND NAM STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGING AND THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE. MAIN PATTERN IN
THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WITH
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN A FEW
SPOTS. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST GULF. THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF ASSOCIATED INVERTED/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WEST GULF AND
WESTERN COASTAL ZONES TONIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS TONIGHT.
SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OVER EASTERN WATERS. WILL INSERT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION/HEADLINES TONIGHT.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  74  91 /  30  40  40  40
BTR  74  91  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
ASD  75  91  76  91 /  20  30  30  30
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  40  40
GPT  77  91  77  91 /  20  30  30  30
PQL  73  91  75  91 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 312102
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 312102
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS STORMS NOTED
OVER SW LOUISIANA. OVER ALL STORM MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTH.
STORMS TODAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MOISTURE STREAM THAT EXTENDS
FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
STREAM IS BEING HELD IN PLACE FROM A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST SOUNDING STILL
IS INDICATING HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES AND STLT IMAGES ARE
INDICATING A SHORTWAVE IS SLOWLY DRAGGING INTO SE TX. THIS ENERGY
WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TOWARDS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.

ACTVTY IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE WITH OVERNIGHT W/ TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL LA AND
THE LAKES REGION IN SE TX AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST BY MORNING.

LABOR DAY LOOKS TO SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TOWARDS THE NOON
HOUR WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 90. THE PRECIP WATER TOTALS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP AND WE SHOULD SEE A TRADITIONAL LABOR DAY AHEAD.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA AND THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM ACTVTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  91  77  91  76 /  30  30  20  30  20
KBPT  77  91  77  91  77 /  30  30  20  30  20
KAEX  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  91  77  92  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 311957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLD THUNDER HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK LAPSE RATES INHIBITING ANY STG
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOW TO MOVE EAST...SO
LOOKING AT MORE ISOLD AFTN DEVELOPMENT SOUTHERN CWA FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. BY MID WEEK...UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
SW STATES...BEGINS TO MERGE INTO ONE BROAD TROUGH. DEEP SOUTH
FLOW...UNDERNEATH WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS...SO EXPECTING THAT DIURNAL PATTERN TO HOLD UNTIL NEAR
WEEKEND...AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT REMAIN NORTH OF I-40. AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DURG THE WEEKEND...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DROP TOWARDS AREA AS IT WASHES OUT. A LOSS OF
LOW LVL GULF FLOW WILL ALSO OCCUR...AS LOW LVL EAST FLOW IN
NORTHERN GULF CUTS OFF STREAM OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY HELP GENERATE CONVECTION DURG WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  77  95  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
MLU  72  92  75  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  30
DEQ  72  93  74  94  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  94  75  93  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
ELD  72  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  10  20  20
TYR  75  95  77  95  76 /  30  10  10  20  20
GGG  73  94  76  95  75 /  30  20  20  20  20
LFK  75  94  76  93  76 /  40  20  20  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 311825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT
A BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 311825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT
A BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 311825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT
A BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 311825
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT
A BTR...MCB AND HUM. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 311805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AS HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS KEEP THE LCL LOW. PERIODIC LOWER
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL ALSO CAUSE LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED.
SE TO SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND 10-12 KTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SETTING UP FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA INCLUDING CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TAF SITES WILL START OUT
WITH VFR IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY. THEN BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY RECORD SETTING RAINS LIKE WE HAD IN LAKE CHARLES YESTERDAY...BUT
WE COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 3 TO 6
INCHES ACCORDING TO MRMS QPE. ACCURACY SHOULD BE GOOD SINCE BOTH
LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK RADARS WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL ZR FOR
THIS EVENT. RADARS ARE BACK TO THE DEFAULT CONTINENTAL ZR. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY...HELPED ALONG BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS
EVEDENTLY FED INTO OUR AREA ALOFT THANKS TO THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AS SUMMER WANES AS DOES THE SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER ISSUANCE OF FLOODING PRODUCTS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE CULPRITS REMAIN A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO
FOR LATE AUGUST...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW FORMS UP OVER THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE AND HELPS DRAW ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE.

SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TODAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED TODAY. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD LAG BELOW NORMS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST.

LONG TERM...THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE AMPLE. THE DRIEST DAYS
THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  89  77  89  76 /  20  30  20  30  20
KBPT  80  89  77  89  77 /  20  30  20  30  20
KAEX  75  92  75  92  73 /  10  30  20  30  20
KLFT  76  89  77  90  76 /  10  40  20  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311703
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS FOR FAR SOUTH CWA TO
50 PERCENT..AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX...AND
MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND AREA. DECREASED TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 80S...WHERE THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING...AND WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS GREATER INTO PORTIONS OF LA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

07/07





000
FXUS64 KSHV 311703
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS FOR FAR SOUTH CWA TO
50 PERCENT..AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX...AND
MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND AREA. DECREASED TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 80S...WHERE THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING...AND WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS GREATER INTO PORTIONS OF LA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

07/07






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311701
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 311232
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
732 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SETTING UP FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA INCLUDING CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TAF SITES WILL START OUT
WITH VFR IN THE MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY. THEN BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES. NOT LOOKING FOR
ANY RECORD SETTING RAINS LIKE WE HAD IN LAKE CHARLES YESTERDAY...BUT
WE COULD STILL SEE SOME GOOD RAINS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE IS MORE PRONOUNCED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 3 TO 6
INCHES ACCORDING TO MRMS QPE. ACCURACY SHOULD BE GOOD SINCE BOTH
LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK RADARS WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL ZR FOR
THIS EVENT. RADARS ARE BACK TO THE DEFAULT CONTINENTAL ZR. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY...HELPED ALONG BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS
EVEDENTLY FED INTO OUR AREA ALOFT THANKS TO THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AS SUMMER WANES AS DOES THE SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER ISSUANCE OF FLOODING PRODUCTS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE CULPRITS REMAIN A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO
FOR LATE AUGUST...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW FORMS UP OVER THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE AND HELPS DRAW ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE.

SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TODAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED TODAY. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD LAG BELOW NORMS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST.

LONG TERM...THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE AMPLE. THE DRIEST DAYS
THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  77  87  77 /  40  20  30  20
KBPT  87  80  88  77 /  40  20  30  20
KAEX  90  75  92  75 /  30  10  30  20
KLFT  90  76  87  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-IBERIA-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. LANDRY-ST.
     MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 311201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF IFR/MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR
TERMINALS. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS SUPPORT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z BEFORE WE SEE CEILING ABOVE 3KFT.
EVENTUALLY...WE SHOULD SEE THESE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AREAWIDE.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS OPPORTUNITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY EFFECT THE MLU TERMINAL.

SKIES FAIR OFF THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 311025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 3 TO 6
INCHES ACCORDING TO MRMS QPE. ACCURACY SHOULD BE GOOD SINCE BOTH
LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK RADARS WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL ZR FOR
THIS EVENT. RADARS ARE BACK TO THE DEFAULT CONTINENTAL ZR. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY...HELPED ALONG BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS
EVEDENTLY FED INTO OUR AREA ALOFT THANKS TO THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AS SUMMER WANES AS DOES THE SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER ISSUANCE OF FLOODING PRODUCTS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE CULPRITS REMAIN A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO
FOR LATE AUGUST...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW FORMS UP OVER THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE AND HELPS DRAW ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TODAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED TODAY. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD LAG BELOW NORMS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE AMPLE. THE DRIEST DAYS
THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  77  87  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  87  80  88  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KAEX  90  75  92  75  92 /  30  10  30  20  30
KLFT  90  76  87  77  90 /  20  10  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 311025
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ESTIMATED 10 INCHES OF RAIN FELL DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS NORTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. MUCH OF THE AREA SAW 3 TO 6
INCHES ACCORDING TO MRMS QPE. ACCURACY SHOULD BE GOOD SINCE BOTH
LAKE CHARLES AND FORT POLK RADARS WERE PLACED IN TROPICAL ZR FOR
THIS EVENT. RADARS ARE BACK TO THE DEFAULT CONTINENTAL ZR. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE REMAINS AS EVIDENCED BY WV IMAGERY...HELPED ALONG BY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WAS
EVEDENTLY FED INTO OUR AREA ALOFT THANKS TO THE REMAINS OF PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MARIE FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

AS SUMMER WANES AS DOES THE SUN AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RETURNS LATE TONIGHT. CHOSE TO MAINTAIN
THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST NOON AS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER ISSUANCE OF FLOODING PRODUCTS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ADDTIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE CULPRITS REMAIN A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A BROAD AND STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO
FOR LATE AUGUST...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS IN THE CARDS FOR MONDAY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW FORMS UP OVER THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE AND HELPS DRAW ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT TODAY. EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED TODAY. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD LAG BELOW NORMS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT OF THE EAST SHOULD
PUT A DAMPER ON RAIN COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL GO FOR A
CHANCE SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE QUITE AMPLE. THE DRIEST DAYS
THIS WEEK LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  77  87  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KBPT  87  80  88  77  89 /  40  20  30  20  30
KAEX  90  75  92  75  92 /  30  10  30  20  30
KLFT  90  76  87  77  90 /  20  10  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER
     ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 310929
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  88  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  92  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  92  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLIX 310844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAIN PORTION OF UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT HAS TRANSLATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED ON KLIX RADAR AT 3
AM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THE RAIN THAT FELL ON SATURDAY ALSO
PULLED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS DEW POINTS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30-40
PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES THAT SEE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z MIGHT
NOT QUITE MAKE FORECAST LEVELS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GFS/NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE BODILY IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD GFS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS POINT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY WOULD END UP
BEING DRY. MAIN PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW FASTER FLOW AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...A SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS
IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TODAY...AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
COUPLE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME LIFR CONTINUING AT KMCB EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGARDING SHRA/TSRA...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY...15 TO 25 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

TO PUT THINGS SIMPLY...THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COMPLICATION WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A
SLIGHT INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...AND THAT AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG
WITH A SWELL TRAIN SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LULL IN STRONGER WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SEAS EARLY TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4
TO 5 FEET OVER EASTERN WATERS. /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  92  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
GPT  90  75  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 310844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAIN PORTION OF UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT HAS TRANSLATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED ON KLIX RADAR AT 3
AM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THE RAIN THAT FELL ON SATURDAY ALSO
PULLED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS DEW POINTS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30-40
PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES THAT SEE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z MIGHT
NOT QUITE MAKE FORECAST LEVELS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GFS/NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE BODILY IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD GFS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS POINT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY WOULD END UP
BEING DRY. MAIN PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW FASTER FLOW AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...A SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS
IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TODAY...AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
COUPLE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME LIFR CONTINUING AT KMCB EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGARDING SHRA/TSRA...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY...15 TO 25 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

TO PUT THINGS SIMPLY...THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COMPLICATION WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A
SLIGHT INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...AND THAT AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG
WITH A SWELL TRAIN SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LULL IN STRONGER WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SEAS EARLY TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4
TO 5 FEET OVER EASTERN WATERS. /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  92  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
GPT  90  75  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 310844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAIN PORTION OF UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT HAS TRANSLATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED ON KLIX RADAR AT 3
AM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THE RAIN THAT FELL ON SATURDAY ALSO
PULLED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS DEW POINTS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30-40
PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES THAT SEE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z MIGHT
NOT QUITE MAKE FORECAST LEVELS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GFS/NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE BODILY IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD GFS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS POINT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY WOULD END UP
BEING DRY. MAIN PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW FASTER FLOW AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...A SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS
IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TODAY...AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
COUPLE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME LIFR CONTINUING AT KMCB EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGARDING SHRA/TSRA...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY...15 TO 25 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

TO PUT THINGS SIMPLY...THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COMPLICATION WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A
SLIGHT INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...AND THAT AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG
WITH A SWELL TRAIN SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LULL IN STRONGER WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SEAS EARLY TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4
TO 5 FEET OVER EASTERN WATERS. /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  92  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
GPT  90  75  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 310844
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAIN PORTION OF UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BEST LIFT HAS TRANSLATED NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION NOTED ON KLIX RADAR AT 3
AM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS
LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISH. THE RAIN THAT FELL ON SATURDAY ALSO
PULLED SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...AS DEW POINTS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ARE IN THE LOWER 70S INSTEAD OF THE
MID AND UPPER 70S. MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
TODAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
MEAN QUITE A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...STILL NOT MUCH MORE THAN 30-40
PERCENT AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH A FEW PLACES THAT SEE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z MIGHT
NOT QUITE MAKE FORECAST LEVELS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

STILL SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHERE GFS/NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA...AND ECMWF KEEPS RIDGE BODILY IN PLACE.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD GFS AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO
CHANGE AT THIS POINT. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY WOULD END UP
BEING DRY. MAIN PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WITH EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WOULD BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING EACH AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING IN A FEW SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW FASTER FLOW AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...A SIGN THAT A CHANGE IN SEASONS
IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY AS WE ENTER SEPTEMBER. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z TODAY...AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z ON MONDAY WHEN
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS WILL BRING TEMPO MVFR AT A
COUPLE AIRPORTS...WITH SOME LIFR CONTINUING AT KMCB EARLY THIS
MORNING. REGARDING SHRA/TSRA...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY...15 TO 25 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

TO PUT THINGS SIMPLY...THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE TYPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE COMPLICATION WITH REGARDS TO
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A
SLIGHT INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS A NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...AND THAT AREA OF STRONGER WINDS ALONG
WITH A SWELL TRAIN SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LULL IN STRONGER WINDS AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER SEAS EARLY TODAY SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...REACHING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AND AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER EASTERN WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AT 5 TO 6 FEET OVER WESTERN WATERS AND 4
TO 5 FEET OVER EASTERN WATERS. /SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION/
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE WEST OF THE MARINE
AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDDAY
ON MONDAY...AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY...THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD EASE
SLOWLY BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. SPOT FORECAST NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  73  91  74 /  20  10  30  20
BTR  92  74  91  75 /  20  10  40  20
ASD  91  74  91  75 /  20  10  30  20
MSY  91  78  91  79 /  20  10  40  20
GPT  90  75  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310439
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR AND BELOW ACROSS AREA TERMINAL SITES
FROM 31/06Z THROUGH 31/14Z. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREAWIDE AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 01/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 310421
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1121 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND. LIMITED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND JUST CARRYING VCSH AT
OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUNCHING INTO THE AREA
WITH THE WESTWARD EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS
AREA COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINTAINING VCTS OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A RECORD SETTING DAY FOR RAINFALL...PRECIPITATION
HAS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OVER
GULF WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

WITH ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING...STILL NEED TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH.
WILL REMOVE NORTHERN PARISHES FROM WATCH. ALSO...ARW AND RAPID
REFRESH HINT SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG TEXAS COAST TO NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND WATCH UNTIL NOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UNTIL 12Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  90  77  91  76 /  40  40  10  30  10
KBPT  74  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  72  91  72  93  74 /  30  40  10  30  10
KLFT  74  91  77  92  76 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 310421
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1121 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING NO MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND. LIMITED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND JUST CARRYING VCSH AT
OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUNCHING INTO THE AREA
WITH THE WESTWARD EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LESS
AREA COVERAGE OF PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINTAINING VCTS OR PROB30
AT THIS TIME. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A RECORD SETTING DAY FOR RAINFALL...PRECIPITATION
HAS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OVER
GULF WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

WITH ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING...STILL NEED TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH.
WILL REMOVE NORTHERN PARISHES FROM WATCH. ALSO...ARW AND RAPID
REFRESH HINT SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG TEXAS COAST TO NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND WATCH UNTIL NOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UNTIL 12Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  90  77  91  76 /  40  40  10  30  10
KBPT  74  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  72  91  72  93  74 /  30  40  10  30  10
KLFT  74  91  77  92  76 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 310420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.MARINE...TIDES HAVE CREPT ABOVE 3 FEET THIS EVENING AT CALCASIEU
PASS SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TIDE CYCLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
INCREASING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  74  90  77  91 / 100  40  40  10  30
KBPT  86  74  89  77  92 / 100  50  50  10  30
KAEX  81  72  91  72  93 / 100  30  40  10  30
KLFT  84  74  91  77  92 / 100  40  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 310420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.MARINE...TIDES HAVE CREPT ABOVE 3 FEET THIS EVENING AT CALCASIEU
PASS SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TIDE CYCLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
INCREASING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  74  90  77  91 / 100  40  40  10  30
KBPT  86  74  89  77  92 / 100  50  50  10  30
KAEX  81  72  91  72  93 / 100  30  40  10  30
KLFT  84  74  91  77  92 / 100  40  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 310420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.MARINE...TIDES HAVE CREPT ABOVE 3 FEET THIS EVENING AT CALCASIEU
PASS SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TIDE CYCLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
INCREASING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  74  90  77  91 / 100  40  40  10  30
KBPT  86  74  89  77  92 / 100  50  50  10  30
KAEX  81  72  91  72  93 / 100  30  40  10  30
KLFT  84  74  91  77  92 / 100  40  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 310420
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.MARINE...TIDES HAVE CREPT ABOVE 3 FEET THIS EVENING AT CALCASIEU
PASS SO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TIDE CYCLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
INCREASING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  74  90  77  91 / 100  40  40  10  30
KBPT  86  74  89  77  92 / 100  50  50  10  30
KAEX  81  72  91  72  93 / 100  30  40  10  30
KLFT  84  74  91  77  92 / 100  40  30  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 310249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE A FEW CHANGES TO SKY WEST AND POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW 80S LEFT IN THE CWA OVER NE TX...MOST LOCALES NOW IN THE
70S WHERE WE WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE LOWER END BY DAYBREAK. SKIES
ARE THINNING A BIT AND EVEN CLEARING OVER NE TX. THE SHV 88D IS
NOW IN CLEAR AIR MODE SEARCHING FOR RETURNS WITH LITTLE TO BE
FOUND. THE LAST FEW STREAMERS OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED UNION PARISH
THIS PAST HOUR. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS IN GENERAL WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENTS TO SKY OVER OUR WEST AS WELL. THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS LINGERING...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST NOT IN PLACE
ANY LONGER WITH THE WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL LOWS YESTERDAY. MUCH OF THAT LEAD VORTICITY
IS NOW OVER E TN AND N GA. MOST MODELS ARE VERY MODEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE HRRR MODEL DOES FLICKER IN AND OUT A BIT OF
QPF OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS THERE.
SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 310242 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER A RECORD SETTING DAY FOR RAINFALL...PRECIPITATION
HAS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OVER
GULF WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

WITH ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING...STILL NEED TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH.
WILL REMOVE NORTHERN PARISHES FROM WATCH. ALSO...ARW AND RAPID
REFRESH HINT SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG TEXAS COAST TO NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND WATCH UNTIL NOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UNTIL 12Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  90  77  91  76 /  40  40  10  30  10
KBPT  74  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  72  91  72  93  74 /  30  40  10  30  10
KLFT  74  91  77  92  76 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 310242 AAA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
942 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER A RECORD SETTING DAY FOR RAINFALL...PRECIPITATION
HAS TAPERED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OVER
GULF WATERS VERY LATE TONIGHT.

WITH ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNING...STILL NEED TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH.
WILL REMOVE NORTHERN PARISHES FROM WATCH. ALSO...ARW AND RAPID
REFRESH HINT SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG TEXAS COAST TO NEAR THE SABINE
RIVER AROUND 12Z. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND WATCH UNTIL NOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS UNTIL 12Z BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  90  77  91  76 /  40  40  10  30  10
KBPT  74  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  72  91  72  93  74 /  30  40  10  30  10
KLFT  74  91  77  92  76 /  40  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 310132
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
832 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE MID
LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.97 INCHES...DOWN FROM
2.29 INCHES IN THE 12Z RELEASE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...BUT LESS SO
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE SOUNDING EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 400
MB...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OBSERVED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
EVEN CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BUT NOTHING TOO
MAJOR OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
REACHED INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE BUT THAT WAS AN EXTREME CASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SOME AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
GUSTS TO GET THAT HIGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE STRONG CONVECTION WEAKENING SOME HOWEVER THERE IS
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FROM BATON ROUGE AND POINTS SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WE DO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO BREAK UP SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW WE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MOSTLY MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 18

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING SLIGHTLY
OVER 15 KNOTS AT SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS
A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER
END ON WEDNESDAY.TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  74  91 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  30
MSY  78  91  79  91 /  50  20  30  30
GPT  77  91  76  90 /  60  20  30  30
PQL  75  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 310132
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
832 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE MID
LEVELS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.97 INCHES...DOWN FROM
2.29 INCHES IN THE 12Z RELEASE THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE WAS
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ABOVE A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION...BUT LESS SO
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE SOUNDING EARLIER TODAY. MODERATE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 400
MB...WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW OBSERVED ABOVE THAT LEVEL. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
EVEN CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BUT NOTHING TOO
MAJOR OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
REACHED INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE BUT THAT WAS AN EXTREME CASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SOME AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
GUSTS TO GET THAT HIGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE STRONG CONVECTION WEAKENING SOME HOWEVER THERE IS
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FROM BATON ROUGE AND POINTS SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WE DO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO BREAK UP SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW WE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
MOSTLY MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 18

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING SLIGHTLY
OVER 15 KNOTS AT SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS
A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER
END ON WEDNESDAY.TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  74  91 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  30
MSY  78  91  79  91 /  50  20  30  30
GPT  77  91  76  90 /  60  20  30  30
PQL  75  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 302332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN VCSH
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 302332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN VCSH
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 302332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN VCSH
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 302332
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
632 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN VCSH
AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014


.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
31/14Z...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AREAWIDE
AFTER 31/15Z. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 302058
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302058
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS HAS
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SEVEN INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH FLOODING ISSUES IN CALCASIEU PARISH
TODAY. THE OTHER RESULT HAS SEEN TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS GETTING DRIVEN BY MOISTURE GETTING FORCED BETWEEN TO AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THEM ALLOWING FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND THIS WILL BE
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL DIMINISH A BIT ON SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE
STREAM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND INTO NE TX AND NRN LA. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE UPPER 80S. THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL THIN ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WHICH WILL SEE AFTN STORMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90. RAINS LOOK
TO FINALLY END TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  77  91  76 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  75  89  77  92  77 /  50  50  10  30  10
KAEX  73  91  72  93  74 /  40  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  92  76 /  60  30  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLIX 302048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
EVEN CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BUT NOTHING TOO
MAJOR OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
REACHED INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE BUT THAT WAS AN EXTREME CASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SOME AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
GUSTS TO GET THAT HIGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE STRONG CONVECTION WEAKENING SOME HOWEVER THERE IS
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FROM BATON ROUGE AND POINTS SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WE DO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO BREAK UP SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW WE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 18

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING SLIGHTLY
OVER 15 KNOTS AT SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS
A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER
END ON WEDNESDAY.TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  74  91 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  30
MSY  78  91  79  91 /  50  20  30  30
GPT  77  91  76  90 /  60  20  30  30
PQL  75  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 302048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND
EVEN CAUSED SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BUT NOTHING TOO
MAJOR OVER OUR AREA. WIND GUSTS WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION HAVE
REACHED INTO THE 60 MPH RANGE BUT THAT WAS AN EXTREME CASE. THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER SOME AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
GUSTS TO GET THAT HIGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THE STRONG CONVECTION WEAKENING SOME HOWEVER THERE IS
MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FROM BATON ROUGE AND POINTS SOUTH.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WE DO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO BREAK UP SOME AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECT A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE TOMORROW WE ONLY HAVE A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE.
THE GFS STILL WANTS TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST MORE TOWARD A GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MODERATE SHRA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL
TAF AIRPORTS THROUGH 23Z. TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...SO NO MENTION WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS AFTER 00Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF RAIN AREAS...POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CIGS. 18

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY PEAKING SLIGHTLY
OVER 15 KNOTS AT SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET...PERHAPS
A BIT HIGHER OVER THE FAR WEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ON THE LOWER
END ON WEDNESDAY.TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT. MONITORING RADAR.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  74  91 /  60  30  30  30
BTR  75  92  75  91 /  60  30  30  30
ASD  75  91  75  91 /  50  20  30  30
MSY  78  91  79  91 /  50  20  30  30
GPT  77  91  76  90 /  60  20  30  30
PQL  75  91  76  90 /  40  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301746
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VSBY DUE TO RAINS AND CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE EVE HOURS AS TRAINING OF STORMS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
RAINS AND GETTING FOCUSED INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. A FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EVANGELINE....
ALLEN...SE BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU... AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABILIZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  89  78  90  77 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  76  90  78  90  78 /  50  40  10  30  10
KAEX  76  90  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  91  77 /  50  40  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301746
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1246 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND
VSBY DUE TO RAINS AND CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE EVE HOURS AS TRAINING OF STORMS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
RAINS AND GETTING FOCUSED INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. A FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EVANGELINE....
ALLEN...SE BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU... AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABILIZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  89  78  90  77 /  50  40  10  30  10
KBPT  76  90  78  90  78 /  50  40  10  30  10
KAEX  76  90  74  92  74 /  50  40  10  30  10
KLFT  75  91  77  91  77 /  50  40  10  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...
     WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301606
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FOR SOME AIRPORTS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/SW LA COAST AND THE RESULT WILL BE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS. REGIONAL RADAR
ANALYSIS SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY FILLING IN NOW ACROSS
SW LA WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNE. EXPECTING SEVERAL
HOURS OF PREVAILING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
ELD/MLU TERMINALS AS A RESULT. FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK TERMINALS
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE GGG/TYR TERMINALS.

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR ACROSS MOST OF NE TX WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY LOWERING FURTHER EAST AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD MOVES NNE.

A MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PULL OUT NORTH AND EAST
OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS WELL BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
RAINS AND GETTING FOCUSED INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. A FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EVANGELINE....
ALLEN...SE BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU... AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABILIZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  77  89  78  90 / 100  50  20  10  20
KBPT  81  76  90  78  90 / 100  50  30  10  30
KAEX  81  76  90  74  92 / 100  50  20  10  20
KLFT  85  75  91  77  91 / 100  50  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
RAINS AND GETTING FOCUSED INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. A FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EVANGELINE....
ALLEN...SE BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU... AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABILIZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  77  89  78  90 / 100  50  20  10  20
KBPT  81  76  90  78  90 / 100  50  30  10  30
KAEX  81  76  90  74  92 / 100  50  20  10  20
KLFT  85  75  91  77  91 / 100  50  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301250
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABLIZING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  77  89  78 /  70  30  20  10
KBPT  83  76  90  78 /  70  40  30  10
KAEX  83  76  90  74 /  80  30  20  10
KLFT  87  75  91  77 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-ALLEN-
     AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-EVANGELINE-
     IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-RAPIDES-
     ST. LANDRY-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-VERNON-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06





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