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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300349
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WITH MINOR CHANGES MAINLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH DEW POINTS AND WINDS. GRADIENT KEEPING
WINDS UP THIS EVENING BUT WILL RELAX LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A
DECREASE IN SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT LOWER IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH
THE CLOUD COVER BUT DID NOT ADJUST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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000
FXUS64 KLCH 300344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CWA...LOCATED ROUGHLY FM SIMMESPORT TO
BUNDICK LAKE TO WARREN TEXAS AS OF 9 PM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBS
INDICATE LT WLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDOW
FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO NARROW AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH NEARLY ALL OBS SITES SHOWING 10SM
VSBY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED PATCHY FOG MENTION FM GRIDS AND
ZONES ALTHOUGH SOME RURAL LOCATIONS IN THE SRN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE SOME VERY BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRIDS EDITS WERE MINOR WITH TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND SKY COVER MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM ROUGHLY 30/03Z TO 30/07Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
ABOUT A SHORT WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
.POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  41  61 /  10   0   0  20
KBPT  49  59  44  60 /  10   0  10  20
KAEX  43  57  37  59 /  10   0   0  20
KLFT  47  59  42  62 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CWA...LOCATED ROUGHLY FM SIMMESPORT TO
BUNDICK LAKE TO WARREN TEXAS AS OF 9 PM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBS
INDICATE LT WLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDOW
FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO NARROW AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH NEARLY ALL OBS SITES SHOWING 10SM
VSBY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED PATCHY FOG MENTION FM GRIDS AND
ZONES ALTHOUGH SOME RURAL LOCATIONS IN THE SRN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE SOME VERY BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRIDS EDITS WERE MINOR WITH TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND SKY COVER MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM ROUGHLY 30/03Z TO 30/07Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
ABOUT A SHORT WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
.POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  41  61 /  10   0   0  20
KBPT  49  59  44  60 /  10   0  10  20
KAEX  43  57  37  59 /  10   0   0  20
KLFT  47  59  42  62 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CWA...LOCATED ROUGHLY FM SIMMESPORT TO
BUNDICK LAKE TO WARREN TEXAS AS OF 9 PM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBS
INDICATE LT WLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDOW
FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO NARROW AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH NEARLY ALL OBS SITES SHOWING 10SM
VSBY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED PATCHY FOG MENTION FM GRIDS AND
ZONES ALTHOUGH SOME RURAL LOCATIONS IN THE SRN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE SOME VERY BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRIDS EDITS WERE MINOR WITH TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND SKY COVER MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM ROUGHLY 30/03Z TO 30/07Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
ABOUT A SHORT WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
.POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  41  61 /  10   0   0  20
KBPT  49  59  44  60 /  10   0  10  20
KAEX  43  57  37  59 /  10   0   0  20
KLFT  47  59  42  62 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 300344
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE CWA...LOCATED ROUGHLY FM SIMMESPORT TO
BUNDICK LAKE TO WARREN TEXAS AS OF 9 PM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NLY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINT AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER
OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OBS
INDICATE LT WLY WINDS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS ARE HELPING TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORMATION AT BAY THIS EVENING...AND THE WINDOW
FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO NARROW AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTH. WITH NEARLY ALL OBS SITES SHOWING 10SM
VSBY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND REMOVED PATCHY FOG MENTION FM GRIDS AND
ZONES ALTHOUGH SOME RURAL LOCATIONS IN THE SRN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE SOME VERY BRIEF SHALLOW FOG PRIOR TO FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...GRIDS EDITS WERE MINOR WITH TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AND SKY COVER MAINLY TO BRING IN LINE WITH
RECENT OBS AND TRENDS.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM ROUGHLY 30/03Z TO 30/07Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
ABOUT A SHORT WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
.POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  46  59  41  61 /  10   0   0  20
KBPT  49  59  44  60 /  10   0  10  20
KAEX  43  57  37  59 /  10   0   0  20
KLFT  47  59  42  62 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 300143
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS WESTERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 500 MB. A JET MAX OF 90 KTS IS
PRESENT AT 180 MB. THERE IS AN ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
550 MB RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS. NEAR THE SFC THE PROFILE IS
10-15 F WARMER THAN 0Z YESTERDAY. PW IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AT .84 INCHES.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  42  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  45  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  70  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  49  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  67  46  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  46  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 300101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
701 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT DENSE CIRRUS MOVING SE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NW OKLAHOMA. WINDS ARE
GUSTING FROM THE NW OVER 15 KTS ACROSS SOME OF OUR SITES...BUT
SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET. SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KTS. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 292338
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
538 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE TAF SITES DURING THE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FROM ROUGHLY 30/03Z TO 30/07Z.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
ABOUT A SHORT WINDOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS...NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR...SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
..POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 292159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR A CLL...TO LFK...TO
IER...TO MLU/GLH LINE AS OF 21Z. WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO GUST
SOME BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF MIXING...AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DENSE
CIRRUS SHIELD RAPIDLY FILLING SE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK ACROSS N TX
INTO WRN/SCNTRL AR...WHICH SHOULD SPILL QUICKLY SE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS DEEPENS AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF SE OK/WRN AR. GIVEN THE WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED TEMPS EVEN BEHIND THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP A TAD BASED ON THE NEW MOS OUTPUT...IN
ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THUS KEEP THE AIR MIXED DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE
THE RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS E
INTO MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE NICE CHANGE OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL
END AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND.

SHOULD ALREADY SEE THE DEEPENING ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF OVER NRN BAJA/SRN
CA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AC CIGS LOWERING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER
THESE AREAS NEAR/JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND IN HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...UNTIL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/COLUMN SATURATION. THE PROGS HAVE HELD
OFF ON MEASURABLE QPF ACROSS NW LA/SCNTRL AR SATURDAY...THUS HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
QUICKLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/MS VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST QPF/S
/0.50-0.75 INCH/ MAINLY ALONG/N OF I-20 ACROSS E TX/N LA...QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. DID LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY EVENING FOR
DEEP E TX/N LA SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING POPS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THIS 2ND FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY MODIFY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AREAS OF SHRA SPREAD BACK ENE INTO
E TX/N LA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE NOT ADDED EMBEDDED
THUNDER YET TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL BEAR
WATCHING AS THE GFS DEPICTS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INCREASING
INSTABILITY NEAR AND N OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW AS IT SHIFTS E
ALONG THE SE TX/SRN LA COAST. DRY CONDITIONS/NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS
LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  56  37  54  47 /   0   0   0  10  70
MLU  40  54  33  56  46 /   0   0   0  10  50
DEQ  31  53  33  48  41 /   0   0  10  20  80
TXK  37  53  35  49  43 /   0   0  10  20  80
ELD  36  53  32  52  43 /   0   0   0  10  60
TYR  40  55  41  52  48 /   0   0  10  30  80
GGG  40  56  40  53  48 /   0   0  10  20  80
LFK  44  59  42  57  51 /   0   0  10  20  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLIX 292157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 292157
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT ESTIMATED TO BE FROM GREENWOOD MS...MONROE...ALEXANDRIA
LA TO COLLEGE STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. MODELS ARE COMING IN DRIER FOR
SATURDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED AS RETURN FLOW ONSETS AHEAD
OF NEXT SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHERN BRANCH FAST MOVING SYSTEM INDUCES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT AIDS A PACIFIC FRONT EASTWARD WHILE A CANADIAN AIRMASS
BUILDS SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE TO PROVIDE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH GULF THAT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVATED
BY CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WEST GULF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EVENTUAL TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KEEPING LAND AREAS ON THE COOLER BUT WET
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG 4-5SM BR BETWEEN 06-10Z PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE AT A FEW LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
FROPA. VFR CAVOK/CAVU AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BLOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN
NORTHEAST THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL A BE A PERIOD WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10Z TO ABOUT 18Z WITH
WINDS IN THE LOW 20 KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. WE HAVE CHOSEN TO USE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE SAME
TIME PERIOD IN THESE AREAS (MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES) AS
THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

TUESDAY WILL HAVE EAST WINDS AS A HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT WINDS/WAVES FOLLOW THE THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE NEAR OR
OFF THE COAST KEEPING NORTHEAST AND NORTH WINDS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  42  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  45  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  49  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  46  59  39  58 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  46  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR






000
FXUS64 KLCH 292149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 292149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 292149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 292149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HAVE SEEN AN EXCEPTIONALLY PLEASANT LATE JANUARY
DAY EVOLVE AFTER A RATHER FOGGY START. WITH JUST A FEW CU AND
MINIMAL CIRRUS OVERHEAD YIELDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S. WITH SOUTHERLIES REMAINING WEAK...HAVE
MANAGED TO ONLY INCREASE OUR DEWPOINTS INTO A RELATIVELY DRY MID
50S. CHANGES ARE COMING.

A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH FEATURE WILL ASSURE A DRY PASSAGE.
HAVE HOWEVER INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE
...POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE NORM FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

WILL SEE LOW END RAIN CHANCES RETURNING SATURDAY...RAMPING UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROF ADVANCES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...
SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE INCOMING FROM PERTURBATIONS INCOMING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EJECTED FROM A CUTOFF BAJA LOW. RAIN CHANCES
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-WEEK...BEFORE
RETURNING AGAIN AS THE BAJA LOW IS PICKED UP AND ADVANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SHORT LIVED MODERATE WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS WILL
FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE....RELAXING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS TRENDING EAST THEN SOUTH...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  60  41  61  52 /  10   0   0  20  40
KBPT  49  59  44  60  53 /  10   0  10  20  40
KAEX  43  57  37  59  49 /  10   0   0  20  40
KLFT  47  59  42  62  52 /  10   0   0  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291818
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1218 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA FOR THE ARKLATEX...ATTM FM
KSHV...TO KELD WITH UPPER TROUGH GATHERING SOME MIDDECK. HIGHER
DECKS WILL PERSIST AS AN UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO APPROACHES. SFC
GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z...VEERING OVERNIGHT TO NE FOR FRIDAY.
ALOFT...OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE W 15-45KTS VEERING TO NW TODAY AND NE
OVERNIGHT UP TO 8KFT BY 12Z AT 15-30KTS...THEN BECOMING MUCH
LIGHTER BY END OF THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK...IS FOR INCREASING MIDDECK
AND EVENTUAL MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH A COLD RA BY 01/06Z THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NW LA PER LATEST SFC OBS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING KAEX BY
EARLY EVENING AND THE COASTAL SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING WITH FEW/SCT CLDS NEAR 2K FT STILL
EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DUE TO THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING OF
FROPA...REDUCED VSBYS AT THE SRN SITES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. DID SEND OUT
A NEW ZFP MINUS THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42 /  10  10   0  10
KBPT  72  49  61  44 /  10  10   0  10
KAEX  72  43  59  37 /   0  10   0  10
KLFT  74  47  61  42 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 291749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CDFNT CURRENTLY JUST ABOUT TO ENTER NW LA PER LATEST SFC OBS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY/TONIGHT...REACHING KAEX BY
EARLY EVENING AND THE COASTAL SITES CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED LATE THIS MORNING WITH FEW/SCT CLDS NEAR 2K FT STILL
EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DUE TO THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING OF
FROPA...REDUCED VSBYS AT THE SRN SITES ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
EVENING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. DID SEND OUT
A NEW ZFP MINUS THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42 /  10  10   0  10
KBPT  72  49  61  44 /  10  10   0  10
KAEX  72  43  59  37 /   0  10   0  10
KLFT  74  47  61  42 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 291733
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS NE
TX/WRN AR THIS MORNING...HAVING NEARED A TYR/GGG/ASL LINE...TO JUST S
OF TXK...TO PBF AS OF 17Z. STRONGER WINDS NOTED ON THE SFC OBS
REMAIN N AND W OF THE AREA...WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVING
DAMMED UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITAS OF WRN AR/SE
OK. THUS...WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME PICKING UP...WITH MOST
LOCALES ACROSS SW AR/SE OK STILL BELOW 10KTS. WHILE WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PICK UP ONCE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS GRADUALLY DEEPENS
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC LAYER ARE PROGGED TO
DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING...THUS HAVE
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR MCCURTAIN AND RED
RIVER COUNTIES.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BAND OF LOW AC
CIGS OVER LOWER E TX INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA JUST AHEAD OF THE
850MB TROUGH...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF EXTENSIVE AC/CIRRUS CIGS OVER
SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. THE NRN BAND OF CIGS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL CIGS SPREADING SE OVER THESE
AREAS FROM WRN/SCNTRL OK...WITH THE AC CIGS FARTHER S EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
850MB TROUGH. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO
CLIMB RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...THUS HAVE RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT A FEW DEGREES BEFORE TEMPS ARE ABLE TO LEVEL OFF WITH THE
FROPA. THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SPILL S
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THE AIR MASS IS ABLE TO
DEEPEN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N.
HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS TONIGHT AND BY
THIS TIME FRIDAY.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  73  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  67  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  70  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  70  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  72  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  74  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 291620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. DID SEND OUT
A NEW ZFP MINUS THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 291620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1020 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES NEEDED. DID SEND OUT
A NEW ZFP MINUS THE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 291341
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION OF 9 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 FEET THAT WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY. AIR REMAINS
A BIT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 0.56 INCHES. WHILE WINDS WERE CALM AT THE SURFACE...THEY
WERE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION. WINDS ARE
THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 3500 FEET...THEN MAINLY FROM THE
WEST UP TO ABOUT 22500 FEET AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE MORNING FLIGHT THAT LASTED
102 MINUTES AND BURST SOUTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND 48 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  58  36  58 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  44  60  40  60 /  10   0   0  10
ASD  44  59  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MSY  48  58  44  60 /  10   0   0  10
GPT  45  59  39  59 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  44  59  37  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 291205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 291205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 291205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 291205
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS SHOW DENSE FOG IS EITHER ONGOING OR POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
AT ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW CEILINGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES POOLING VIA ONSHORE
FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...AND POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 10 KNOTS
OR MORE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN
     NEWTON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 291126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PD. SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS/BR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT NW LA...AND IS MOVING NWD INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MIXING WILL SCATTER ANY
REMAINING STRATUS BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING NLY WINDS 10-12 KTS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 291126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PD. SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS/BR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP E TX AND ADJACENT NW LA...AND IS MOVING NWD INTO THE I-20
CORRIDOR RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...AMPLE MIXING WILL SCATTER ANY
REMAINING STRATUS BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLEAR AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING NLY WINDS 10-12 KTS...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 290947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 290947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
347 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION....MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DENSE
FOG.  CURRENTLY VISIBILITIES ARE AROUND A QUARTER MILE ESPECIALLY
ALONG I10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES.  CURRENT ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION LOOK FINE FOR NOW. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT
IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED LONGER THAN 14Z.

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST UNSEASONABLY WARM AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ENTER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT. NO
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED  THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS ARE PROGGED TO BE LOWER.  DRIER MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND NEXT FRONT...WHICH SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.


&&

.MARINE...ALONG BAYS...WILL CONTINUE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM.
APPEARS THAT ANY FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND NOT
OFFSHORE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCEC AND PERHAPS SCA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON FRIDAY. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONT IS FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
MORE PERSISTENT SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  71  47  61  42  61 /  10  10   0  10  20
KBPT  72  49  61  44  60 /  10  10   0  10  20
KAEX  72  43  59  37  59 /   0  10   0  10  20
KLFT  74  47  61  42  62 /   0  10   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 290931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  41  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  44  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  71  44  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  48  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  68  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  44  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER






000
FXUS64 KLIX 290931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...QUIET COOL NIGHT AGAIN WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAD DROPPED INTO THE 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8Z.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HRS. WEAK NW
FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ESTABLISHED
AS A NRN STREAM S/W DROPS THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND THE MID MS
VALLEY AND TWRDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT AHEAD OF IT LOOK FOR A WARM DAY. H925
TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS COULD BE IN THE MID 70S IN A FEW
AREAS.

TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SLIDE
IN. IN ADDITION DONT EXPECT ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED. H925 TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO 6-8C WHICH COULD MEAN AS MUCH
AS A 15 TO ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR A HIGH ON FRI.

FRI NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER A RIDGE WHILE A LARGE CLOSED
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND THIS LOW WILL
ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND STILL BE OVER THE BAJA BY SUN MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/W WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL PUT
US UNDER WEAK SW FLOW. IN ADDITION ON SUN A WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF RAIN SUN. WILL NOT
MENTION TSRA AS THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE NOT IN TERRIBLE
AGREEMENT. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME
BEFORE IT FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT. WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF
THE MDLS.

SUN NIGHT OUR LITTLE SFC WAVE/LOW SHOULD QUICKLY PULL OUT TO THE NE
WITH A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEFORE
SUNRISE MON AS OUR COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. ANOTHER COLD DRY
AIRMASS WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THIS WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW FINALLY GETS
KICKED OUT OF THE BAJA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MDLS AS TO WHEN THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE GFS THE
FASTEST ON TUE AND THE EURO HOLDING OFF MORE TWRDS WED. ONCE THIS
OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF RAIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUE NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY ON WED. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS SHOWING UP AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW
TERMINALS WEST OF HDC COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT
SUNRISE.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADY VEERING FROM ENE TO SSE SINCE SUNSET
YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA...SHIFTING EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES
TO HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT AS WINDS
JUMP UP TO 15-20 KNOTS. FOR NOW HAVE THE HEADLINE DROPPING OFF BY
NOON FRIDAY BUT ELEVATED WINDS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  41  58  36 /   0  10   0   0
BTR  74  44  60  40 /   0  10   0   0
ASD  71  44  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
MSY  72  48  58  44 /   0  10   0   0
GPT  68  45  59  39 /   0  10   0   0
PQL  68  44  59  37 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: MEFFER





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290842
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 290842
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STRONGER
WINDS...AROUND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.

TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR COULD SEE
LIGHT FREEZE CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PACIFIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF
OF RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  39  56  38  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  72  39  54  34  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  64  31  55  35  50 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  66  35  53  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  68  35  53  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  68  39  55  40  53 /   0   0   0  10  40
GGG  70  40  55  39  54 /   0   0   0  10  30
LFK  73  43  58  40  58 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 290603
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SE TX AND
FAR SW LA. VSBYS AT SE TX AIRPORTS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS SW LA...WITH VSBYS
CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING BUT EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  47  59 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  50  61 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  58 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  48  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CALCASIEU-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290603
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1203 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER SE TX AND
FAR SW LA. VSBYS AT SE TX AIRPORTS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACRS SW LA...WITH VSBYS
CURRENTLY FLUCTUATING BUT EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING THURSDAY.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  47  59 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  50  61 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  58 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  48  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CALCASIEU-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
     ORANGE-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  53  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  50  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 290530
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE RIDGE IS EAST OF THE REGION WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPING TO BRING SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. SHORT
WAVE PRODUCING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
ALSO LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO DEW POINTS WITH SOME FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW WHAT
THE EVENING DEW POINTS WERE...AND WITH THAT...VISIBILITY DOWN TO
LIFR AT KBPT AND BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR/IFR AT KLCH. EXPECT KBPT TO
EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH KLCH ALSO SETTLING IN FOR MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 29/09Z. THE OTHER TAF SITES THAT HAVE SEEN LESS RETURN FLOW
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE BRIEF POSSIBILITY OF IFR. WITH INCREASING WINDS AND DAYTIME
HEATING...ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 29/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET MOVING WITH THE
FRONT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  53  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  50  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 290529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 290529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 290529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 290529
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK...WILL REACH CWA BY MID MORNING
THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BTWN 29/21-24Z. SCT MID DECKS UNDERNEATH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SKIES TO REMAIN
VFR AREAWIDE THRU 30/06Z FCST CYCLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK...WILL REACH CWA BY MID MORNING
THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BTWN 29/21-24Z. SCT MID DECKS UNDERNEATH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SKIES TO REMAIN
VFR AREAWIDE THRU 30/06Z FCST CYCLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 290350
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  46  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 290350
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING SELY WINDS TO BRING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS ACRS SW LA AND SE TX ARE IN THE LOWER
50S WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACRS ALL BUT THE
ERN-MOST ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/NR 50.

WITH LT WINDS ACRS THE AREA AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
NARROWING...FOG SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACRS LOWER SE TX/SW LA INITIALLY...THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACRS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SREF PROBABILITIES AS WELL AS NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE...AND
DENSE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  72  45  58 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  55  72  47  59 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  51  72  43  56 /   0   0  10   0
KLFT  50  74  46  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KSHV 290340
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06







000
FXUS64 KLIX 290126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
726 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PW
OF .51 INCHES. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LOW LEVELS
THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET MAX IS 100 KTS
AT 215 MB.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STILL MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES AND MOVES EAST. A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THAT USHERS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THAT FRONT IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH BULK
OF COLD MOVING EAST.

LONG TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LONG TERM. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC TROPICAL CONNECTION
WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH FIRST SWINGS DOWN FOR A SOFT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THAT
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTH GULF MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE
EJECTING SYSTEM THEN INDUCES A SURFACE GULF LOW OF SOME MAGNITUDE
TUESDAY THAT RIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND PLACES PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW IN THE GULF WATERS AND LESS PENETRATION
INLAND OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER TECHNIQUE FAVORS
THE GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING AND LOCATION BUT WILL DEFER TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS
BETTER AND WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY COME IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30
HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE TO BRING HIGH END MVFR VSBY AT KMCB AND KHUM.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTH GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE FRIDAY THEN
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST
GULF THAT RIDES A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT
UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY  WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  46  73  43 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  68  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  46  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  66  49  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  63  48  68  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  63  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 290126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
726 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING DEPICTS THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PW
OF .51 INCHES. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LOW LEVELS
THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET MAX IS 100 KTS
AT 215 MB.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STILL MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES AND MOVES EAST. A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THAT USHERS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THAT FRONT IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH BULK
OF COLD MOVING EAST.

LONG TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LONG TERM. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC TROPICAL CONNECTION
WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH FIRST SWINGS DOWN FOR A SOFT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THAT
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTH GULF MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE
EJECTING SYSTEM THEN INDUCES A SURFACE GULF LOW OF SOME MAGNITUDE
TUESDAY THAT RIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND PLACES PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW IN THE GULF WATERS AND LESS PENETRATION
INLAND OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER TECHNIQUE FAVORS
THE GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING AND LOCATION BUT WILL DEFER TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS
BETTER AND WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY COME IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30
HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE TO BRING HIGH END MVFR VSBY AT KMCB AND KHUM.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTH GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE FRIDAY THEN
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST
GULF THAT RIDES A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT
UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY  WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  46  73  43 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  68  47  75  46 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  66  46  71  47 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  66  49  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  63  48  68  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  63  47  69  47 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 282337
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 282337
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU 30/00Z FCST PERIOD WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
MOVG EAST ACROSS REGION ATTM...AND SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KTS AND
GUSTY...DIMINISHING ONLY SLIGHTLY DURG EVE. COLD FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS AREA...CROSSING I-20 AROUND 29/15-18Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NW AROUND 10 KTS...AND MID LVL CLOUD DECKS DURG DAYTIME./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282147
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 282120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
AIR MASS TO MODIFY OVER NIGHT. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG COULD DEVELOP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE
IN THE SHORT TERM. BOTH MODELS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY AND THEN HAVE IT MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF STATES
BY SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE CUT OFF LOW FINALLY OPENS UP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GULF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS
A RISK OF PATCHY MARINE FOG FORMING OVER THE SHALLOW COOL COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF MARINE FOG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  51  71  45  59  42 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  52  72  47  59  43 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  50  72  43  56  38 /   0   0  10   0  10
KLFT  51  74  46  58  42 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 282051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
251 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STILL MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES AND MOVES EAST. A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THAT USHERS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THAT FRONT IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH BULK
OF COLD MOVING EAST.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LONG TERM. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC TROPICAL CONNECTION
WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH FIRST SWINGS DOWN FOR A SOFT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THAT
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTH GULF MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE
EJECTING SYSTEM THEN INDUCES A SURFACE GULF LOW OF SOME MAGNITUDE
TUESDAY THAT RIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND PLACES PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW IN THE GULF WATERS AND LESS PENETRATION
INLAND OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER TECHNIQUE FAVORS
THE GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING AND LOCATION BUT WILL DEFER TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS
BETTER AND WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY COME IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30
HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE TO BRING HIGH END MVFR VSBY AT KMCB AND KHUM.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTH GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE FRIDAY THEN
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST
GULF THAT RIDES A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT
UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY  WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 282051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
251 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STILL MILD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY AS CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE MODERATES AND MOVES EAST. A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PLAINS STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
THAT USHERS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD. THAT FRONT IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS LIMITED WITH BULK
OF COLD MOVING EAST.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS FINE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DIVERGE
CONSIDERABLY IN THE LONG TERM. THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY TAPS INTO A PACIFIC TROPICAL CONNECTION
WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. A NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH FIRST SWINGS DOWN FOR A SOFT FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY THAT
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY IN NORTH GULF MONDAY. THE ENERGY FROM THE
EJECTING SYSTEM THEN INDUCES A SURFACE GULF LOW OF SOME MAGNITUDE
TUESDAY THAT RIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEASTWARD HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW
AND PLACES PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR WHEREAS THE
ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW IN THE GULF WATERS AND LESS PENETRATION
INLAND OF THE RAIN SHIELD. THE LOCAL HOVMOLLER TECHNIQUE FAVORS
THE GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING AND LOCATION BUT WILL DEFER TO MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES AND JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS
BETTER AND WILL AWAIT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THEY COME IN
BETTER ALIGNMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30
HOURS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT A FEW LOCATIONS BRIEFLY
AROUND SUNRISE TO BRING HIGH END MVFR VSBY AT KMCB AND KHUM.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE NORTH GULF
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE FRIDAY THEN
SETTLE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE WEST FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP IN THE WEST
GULF THAT RIDES A FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD RESPOND TO SOME TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT
UNCERTAIN TO WHAT EXTENT AT THIS TIME...BUT STRONGER SOUTHERLY  WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  73  43  57 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  47  75  46  60 /   0   0  10   0
ASD  46  71  47  60 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  49  73  50  58 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  48  68  48  59 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  47  69  47  59 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281752
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
APPROACHING CIRRUS ATTM WILL INCREASE AND S/SW 10-20KTS WINDS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...LESS THAN 10KTS. LIGHTER WINDS AT KLFK
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF VLIFR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ARKLATEX. W/NW 10-15KTS WILL ENSUE W TO E AFTER
DAYBREAK. ALOFT...S/SW FLOW WILL BE INCREASING INTO LLJ OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR TO 25-35KT FM 1-3KFT. THESE WINDS WILL VEER TO
W AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN SLACK AND VEER TO NW END OF THIS CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...INCREASING DECKS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COLD RA BY 31/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND VISIBILITY 10 MILES ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281751
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1151 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND VISIBILITY 10 MILES ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED BETWEEN 09 AND 14Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281605
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
AND WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THEREFORE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL DEGREES AREAWIDE. I STILL MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED TEMPS ENOUGH AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS E TX ARE ALREADY
IN THE MID 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SOME READINGS ABOVE 80
DEGREES F.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  71  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  73  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  74  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  72  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  78  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  77  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  78  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281538
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281538
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
938 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COMBINATION OF PATCHY ADVECTION
AND RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. PATCHY ADVECTION FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORE TONIGHT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO
MOVE OVER THE COOL SHALLOW COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281155
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
555 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AVIATION-WISE AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SFC/DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD
SEE SRLY WINDS PICK UP A BIT AT KBPT/KLCH/KARA TODAY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. BIG
QUESTION LOOKS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCH UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...FOR NOW HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT
SOMEWHAT TO ALLOW LATER FORECASTS THE CHANCE TO BETTER REFINE ITS
DEVELOPMENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS PD. LIGHT
AND VRBL WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SE AT 8-12 KTS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME AFTER SUNSET. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLIX 281018
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1025MB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND 1005MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM MAINE TO EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM EAST TEXAS TO
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
ONE THIRD CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECION WAS NOT ABLE TO OFFSET HEATING OF THE DRY AIR
YESTERDAY AS SURF TEMPS WARMED ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS. TODAY...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL GO 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUT HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE
MID 70S ON THURSDAY.

A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE AND MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE STILL SHOWING A
POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY YIELD SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHOW
SOME MARGINAL MID LAYER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AND THE REST OF FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. ERGO...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL FINALLY
OPEN AND PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BUT
KEEPING THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR SOUTH OF LAND AREAS ACCORDING
EURO AND GFS. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO FOG IN SIGHT THIS MORNING...
THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT
PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED
THROUGH HAS BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING...SO WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY TOWARDS FLORIDA WHICH
WILL BRING LOCAL WINDS BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE. YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF
ROUND OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK
AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDS UP INTO STRONG SCA LEVELS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  45  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  67  47  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  65  46  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  65  48  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  60  48  70  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  61  47  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281018
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1025MB OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL
GULF AND 1005MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM MAINE TO EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM EAST TEXAS TO
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN
ONE THIRD CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR ADVECION WAS NOT ABLE TO OFFSET HEATING OF THE DRY AIR
YESTERDAY AS SURF TEMPS WARMED ABOVE GUIDANCE LEVELS. TODAY...COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL GO 2 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUT HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE
MID 70S ON THURSDAY.

A STRONG WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSAGE AND MAINTAIN
COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. GFS AND EURO ARE STILL SHOWING A
POSITIVELY TILTED BROAD TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY YIELD SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHOW
SOME MARGINAL MID LAYER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES AND THE REST OF FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY EVENING. ERGO...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OLD MEXICO WILL FINALLY
OPEN AND PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF BUT
KEEPING THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR SOUTH OF LAND AREAS ACCORDING
EURO AND GFS. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NO FOG IN SIGHT THIS MORNING...
THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY THE CASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IFR TO MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT
PATCHY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVED
THROUGH HAS BROUGHT WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING...SO WILL INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WITH THIS FCST
PACKAGE. SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY TOWARDS FLORIDA WHICH
WILL BRING LOCAL WINDS BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE. YET ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A BRIEF
ROUND OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS. A REPEAT OF WINDS ROTATING BACK
AROUND TO ONSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED AS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN KEEPS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVING EAST. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE COMING IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING WINDS UP INTO STRONG SCA LEVELS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  45  74  42 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  67  47  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  65  46  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  65  48  74  49 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  60  48  70  48 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  61  47  71  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
414 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE OBSERVED SOME SLIGHTLY LOWERED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG THAT BEGAN
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
VISIBILITIES BOUNCING UP AND DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE BUT IN
GENERAL THE FOG EXTENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR 70 MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE
SPRING THAN THE END OF JANUARY.

FOG WILL BE MUCH MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREADING
INLAND OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY AROUND 9:00 AM
BUT MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY...LIKELY DISRUPTING MARINE TRAFFIC...UNTIL
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SWEEPS IT OUT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND IT MAKING FOR A VERY
PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL ALSO MARK THE
END TO OUR STRETCH OF VERY PLEASANT WEATHER.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA
RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY EARLY SATURDAY.
CONCORDANTLY...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO DECIDED
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE T STORMS FOR THAT TIME FRAME BUT OTHERWISE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY LIGHTNING FREE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SLIDING IN BEHIND IT. ITS FROM
HERE ON THAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
BEFORE LIFTING IT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY ON THE BACK OF A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GULF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS SHOWS A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT WITH THE
FRONT GETTING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EURO HAS PRECIP
REENTERING OUR COASTAL WATERS AND COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...DESPITE HAVING THE GULF LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE
GFS SHOWS A MUCH LARGER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
SEEING RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY SINCE
WE`RE TALKING ABOUT DAY 7 THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER SOLUTION SO OPTED TO GO WITH LOW POPS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR THE TIME BEING.

SO IN SUMMARY...FOG TONIGHT...DRY FRONT FRIDAY...WET FRONT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY MONDAY...WHO KNOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THANKS TO A PASSING COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 1 MI LIKELY IPACTING
MARINE TRAFFIC.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND INCREASING WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  52  73  48  60 /   0   0  10  10  10
KBPT  71  52  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  10  10
KAEX  70  49  73  43  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
KLFT  70  50  74  48  60 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

66






000
FXUS64 KSHV 280837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280837
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. WINDS TO
AVERAGE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREDOMINATES ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

COLDER AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER...UPPER-TROUGH
FROM BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S TO LOWS AROUND FREEZING. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  53  69  40  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
MLU  68  51  70  39  54 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  62  33  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  51  65  36  52 /   0  10   0   0  10
ELD  69  50  67  36  53 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  75  53  67  39  56 /   0   0  10   0  10
GGG  74  53  69  41  55 /   0   0  10   0  10
LFK  75  52  72  43  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KLIX 280545
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN FOG
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE HIGH PRESSURE
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THERE MAY BE
A FEW AIRPORTS WITH SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 1-2 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO BECOME DRIER TODAY...WITH A DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.55 INCHES AT 12Z TO 0.46 INCHES AT 00Z.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ON AVERAGE 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE LAUNCH TIME SURFACE DEWPOINT. THIS DRIER AIR EASILY MIXED DOWN THE
SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 700MB AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ALSO NOTED. OVERALL...A VERY STABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  72  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  42  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  46  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  43  59  46 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280545
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN FOG
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE HIGH PRESSURE
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THERE MAY BE
A FEW AIRPORTS WITH SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 1-2 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO BECOME DRIER TODAY...WITH A DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.55 INCHES AT 12Z TO 0.46 INCHES AT 00Z.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ON AVERAGE 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE LAUNCH TIME SURFACE DEWPOINT. THIS DRIER AIR EASILY MIXED DOWN THE
SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 700MB AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ALSO NOTED. OVERALL...A VERY STABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  72  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  42  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  46  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  43  59  46 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280545
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN FOG
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE HIGH PRESSURE
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THERE MAY BE
A FEW AIRPORTS WITH SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 1-2 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO BECOME DRIER TODAY...WITH A DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.55 INCHES AT 12Z TO 0.46 INCHES AT 00Z.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ON AVERAGE 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE LAUNCH TIME SURFACE DEWPOINT. THIS DRIER AIR EASILY MIXED DOWN THE
SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 700MB AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ALSO NOTED. OVERALL...A VERY STABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  72  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  42  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  46  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  43  59  46 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280545
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION OF IFR OR MVFR CATEGORY VSBYS IN FOG
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SINCE HIGH PRESSURE
IS GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD
VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN THERE MAY BE
A FEW AIRPORTS WITH SOME FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 1-2 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUED TO BECOME DRIER TODAY...WITH A DROP IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM 0.55 INCHES AT 12Z TO 0.46 INCHES AT 00Z.
THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ON AVERAGE 15 DEGREES LOWER THAN
THE LAUNCH TIME SURFACE DEWPOINT. THIS DRIER AIR EASILY MIXED DOWN THE
SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AROUND 700MB AND WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ALSO NOTED. OVERALL...A VERY STABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  72  42  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  69  42  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  67  46  62  49 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  67  43  59  46 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  67  40  61  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP HERE AT
THE LCH AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS
AT BPT AND POSSIBLY LCH...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION...FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND SHALLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BPT/LCH FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  47  72  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  69  52  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 280529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK
OUTSIDE SHOWS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP HERE AT
THE LCH AIRPORT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VSBYS
AT BPT AND POSSIBLY LCH...BUT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACRS THE
REGION...FOG SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY AND SHALLOW. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT BPT/LCH FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08-12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING (28/00Z) FROM KLCH VERIFIES WHAT IS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS A DRY AIR MASS PREVAILS. SOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RISEN THE DEW POINTS SOME THIS EVENING
AT A FEW SPOTS. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
CALM...AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY AIR MASS...OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES STILL ON TRACK. WITH THIS...A FEW SITES MAY SEE SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS AIR TEMPERATURES LATER ON REACH DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...THINKING IS THAT OVERALL AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT PLACE IN WEATHER
GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
28/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRES RIDGING SW ACRS THE AREA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SKC SKIES
AND LT VRBL WINDS WHICH WILL VEER MORE SELY DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE AND A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALSO LIES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER
WARM AIR TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY...FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...SOME
15F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE GULF GRADUALLY RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE
MORE MOIST AND COOLER GULF AIR HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY LOWER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY. HOWEVER...THESE
VALUES WILL STILL BE SOME 10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE INCREASE
IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR
AT-LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN THE SIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S.
RIDGE LATE TOMORROW AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
PROFILES DO HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1 INCH WITH
MEAN RH BRIEFLY OVER 50 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TO BE RATHER SHALLOW AND MAINLY BELOW
5K FEET. WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALSO STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH
WITH THIS FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP WITH IT...AND WILL KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE AS DRY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST OLD MEXICO AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET WILL INCREASE PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS PUSH DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE MOISTURE PROFILES AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST PAC MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO BETWEEN
1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES...WITH MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT...BOTH
RESPECTABLE NUMBERS FOR THE COOL SEASON. INCREASING LIFT FROM
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHERN JET...AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE SUNDAY...WILL TAP INTO THE
DECENT MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO WILL KEEP ACTIVITY AS JUST
SHOWERS...AND NOT MENTION THUNDER.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BACK A MORE MOIST MARINE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION...AND WITH
DEW POINTS NEARING THE NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES...AT-LEAST
SOME PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON
THURSDAY EVENING...ENDING FOG CHANCES AND BRINGING MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS.

WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND BECOME EASTERLY ON SATURDAY
THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HELPS FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
LATE SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  45  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  47  72  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
KAEX  41  71  49  73 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  45  69  52  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 280509
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC AREAWIDE THRU 29/06Z...ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW MID OR UPPER
LVL CLOUDS INTO NE TX AFTER 29/00Z. LGT WINDS BECMG SE-E NEAR 10
KTS WED AFTN...AND SOUTH AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AREAWIDE
AFTER 29/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA FOR THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES NECESSARY TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST. NO UPDATE NEEDED. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SHARP RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH
FROM CANADA BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...SO SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DRY. ON FRIDAY...THE WEST COAST
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHWEST U.S...REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLDER SURFACE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WARMER...
MOIST AIR TO BE LIFTED...RESULTING IN A WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  72  53  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  40  70  53  68  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  38  68  44  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  71  51  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  70  51  68  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  48  74  53  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  45  73  53  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  45  74  54  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280509
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC AREAWIDE THRU 29/06Z...ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW MID OR UPPER
LVL CLOUDS INTO NE TX AFTER 29/00Z. LGT WINDS BECMG SE-E NEAR 10
KTS WED AFTN...AND SOUTH AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AREAWIDE
AFTER 29/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA FOR THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES NECESSARY TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST. NO UPDATE NEEDED. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SHARP RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH
FROM CANADA BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...SO SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DRY. ON FRIDAY...THE WEST COAST
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHWEST U.S...REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLDER SURFACE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WARMER...
MOIST AIR TO BE LIFTED...RESULTING IN A WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  72  53  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  40  70  53  68  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  38  68  44  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  71  51  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  70  51  68  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  48  74  53  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  45  73  53  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  45  74  54  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280509
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC AREAWIDE THRU 29/06Z...ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW MID OR UPPER
LVL CLOUDS INTO NE TX AFTER 29/00Z. LGT WINDS BECMG SE-E NEAR 10
KTS WED AFTN...AND SOUTH AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AREAWIDE
AFTER 29/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA FOR THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES NECESSARY TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST. NO UPDATE NEEDED. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SHARP RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH
FROM CANADA BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...SO SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DRY. ON FRIDAY...THE WEST COAST
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHWEST U.S...REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLDER SURFACE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WARMER...
MOIST AIR TO BE LIFTED...RESULTING IN A WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  72  53  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  40  70  53  68  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  38  68  44  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  71  51  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  70  51  68  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  48  74  53  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  45  73  53  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  45  74  54  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280509
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC AREAWIDE THRU 29/06Z...ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW MID OR UPPER
LVL CLOUDS INTO NE TX AFTER 29/00Z. LGT WINDS BECMG SE-E NEAR 10
KTS WED AFTN...AND SOUTH AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KTS AREAWIDE
AFTER 29/00Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED
DATA FOR THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES NECESSARY TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST. NO UPDATE NEEDED. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON...A SHARP RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE WARM TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIPS SOUTH
FROM CANADA BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY...SO SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DRY. ON FRIDAY...THE WEST COAST
SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHWEST U.S...REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. COLDER SURFACE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WARMER...
MOIST AIR TO BE LIFTED...RESULTING IN A WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. RAIN SHOULD END BY MONDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  72  53  70  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  40  70  53  68  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  38  68  44  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  71  51  66  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  39  70  51  68  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  48  74  53  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  45  73  53  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  45  74  54  73  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








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