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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011438
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
938 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the first day of July 2016, a broad 591 decameter ridge at 500
HPa remains centered over much of TX. Expect this ridge to produce
warm temperatures and suppress rainfall across the ArkLaTex region
through much of this Independence Day holiday weekend.

Current text and grid forecasts on track with no changes planned for
this Friday afternoon. A few locations may observe heat indices
reaching 105 degrees for an hour or two late this afternoon. Finally
can not rule an isolated TSTM developing across the Ouachita
Mountains in SE OK and SW AR from outflow boundaries of ongoing
convection across NRN and Central OK. /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 01/12Z terminal forecast period expecting brief mvfr
visibility restrictions this morning at KLFK and KMLU and again
during the Saturday morning between 02/11Z-02/13Z...otherwise
vfr flight categories expected. winds will be light and variable
less than 7 knots. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have been watching convection upstream across Ncntrl AR diminish this
morning as they approached the Little Rock area...associated with
upper level shortwave energy diving SE from the MS Valley SW into AR.
While the latest mosaic radar imagery has mostly disspated the
convection this morning...an associated outflow bndry has been visible
in the radar and latest sfc obs extending from just SW of FSM...to
near MWT...HOT...and PBF. With the center of the H700-500 upper level
ridge expected to build E across N TX this morning and into E TX/N
LA/extreme Srn Ar this afternoon...weak perturbations aloft should
continue to drift atop the ridge across OK and into AR...and help
focus isolated convection this afternoon along this and other
potential mesoscale bndrys once heating/better instability has been
realized. Have added slight chance pops this afternoon and early
evening for McCurtain Co. OK as well as the Nrn counties iN SW
AR...before the convection diminishes with the loss of heating later
this evening. Farther S...subsidence beneath the upper ridge center as
well as the sfc ridge will contribute to another hot afternoon...with
the drier air above the bndry lyr quickly mixing down resulting in a
bit more tolerable RH/s similar to Thursday. Light SSE winds should
return though to E TX/SE OK this afternoon and result in a slow
advection of higher humidities...with this moistening air mass
contributing to slightly milder min temps tonight and higher RH/S
Saturday areawide.

The upper ridge center remains progged to shift SE but expand NNE
across the Lower MS Valley Saturday...thus inhibiting any isolated convection
development. Should also see a return to heat indices ranging between
100-105 degrees with the return to SSW winds both Saturday and Sunday...as
temps approach the upper 90s especially over portions of Ncntrl LA
beneath the ridge center. Afterwards...not expecting min temps to fall
much below the upper 70s as bndry lyr winds stay up over the next
several days. The ECMWF has finally begun to show signs of the
GFS/Canadian in flattening the upper ridge late Sunday into Monday in
response to a weak shortwave trough that will lift out of the Desert
SW and shift E across the Srn Rockies/Srn Plains. The GFS remains more
bullish with convective development over much of OK/TX Sunday
afternoon before shifting E into NE TX/AR Sunday night/Monday. Prefer
more of a blend of the Canadian/ECMWF with a weaker trough...with sct
convection still affecting portions of N TX/SE OK Sunday night before
reaching the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR Monday. Have increased pops
to low chance for extreme SE OK Sunday night...and expanded chance
pops Monday along I-30. Not quite sure how far this convection would
expand SSE into E TX/possibly N LA Monday afternoon...with the
proximity of the flat upper ridging in place over these areas. Did
expand slight chance pops S to the I-20 corridor of E TX as well as
extreme Srn AR...and left the remainder of E TX/N LA dry for now given
the consensus of the drier ECMWF/Canadian blend.

This may be the only wetting rainfall portions of the area will
receive throughout much of next week...as upper level ridging looks to
rebuild over the Srn Plains/lower MS Valley. This will maintain max
temps in the mid/possibly upper 90s for the remainder of the
extended...and possibly necessitating the need for heat headlines at
that time given the higher RH/s expected.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  96  73  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  95  70  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  97  75  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  96  73  96  77 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

08



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000
FXUS64 KLIX 011320
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
820 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot to discuss with this morning`s flight other than
the significant drying noted when compared to to yesterday`s 12z
flight and especially last evening`s 00z flight. PW has dropped to
1.68 inches which is a little below normal for this time of year.
The lower moisture content will limit convective coverage and
supports the lower PoPs being carried in today`s forecast. This
drier air will also allow afternoon temps to rise higher than last
few days for most places.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A pretty quiet radar this morning across the forecast area. Not as
much convection over the coastal waters this morning so things
should not be as exciting as previous mornings around here. No
major changes in the forecast as high pressure starts to build
into the region today. Rain chances will be small again today with
a slight chance of a shower or storm mainly along and south of
I-10/12. The heat will become the story as temperatures will
remain in the low to mid 90s today and through the weekend. Rain
chances through the weekend will be small as well with a small
chances of a shower or storm forming along seabreeze or lake
breezes.

LONG TERM...
Again high pressure should remain in place through the weekend. Guidance
suggests a system moving north of the area early next week. This
should could increased rain chances a little bit but it is
uncertain how much this will get into the area. Will have to watch
for more guidance in order to adjust pops accordingly. Temperatures
not expected to deviate from mid 90s through this part of the
forecast period.

AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions to prevail at all terminal locations next
24 hours. IFR conditions at KHUM appears to be local ground fog
affects and will likely improve abruptly when observations become
augmented after daybreak. convective coverage should remain isolated
and not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light onshore flow and low seas is expected to prevail next 5 days
or so under developing bermuda ridge extension regime over the
weekend into early next week. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  95  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  94  76  94  77 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  91  77  92  78 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  92  75  93  76 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011320
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
820 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Not a whole lot to discuss with this morning`s flight other than
the significant drying noted when compared to to yesterday`s 12z
flight and especially last evening`s 00z flight. PW has dropped to
1.68 inches which is a little below normal for this time of year.
The lower moisture content will limit convective coverage and
supports the lower PoPs being carried in today`s forecast. This
drier air will also allow afternoon temps to rise higher than last
few days for most places.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A pretty quiet radar this morning across the forecast area. Not as
much convection over the coastal waters this morning so things
should not be as exciting as previous mornings around here. No
major changes in the forecast as high pressure starts to build
into the region today. Rain chances will be small again today with
a slight chance of a shower or storm mainly along and south of
I-10/12. The heat will become the story as temperatures will
remain in the low to mid 90s today and through the weekend. Rain
chances through the weekend will be small as well with a small
chances of a shower or storm forming along seabreeze or lake
breezes.

LONG TERM...
Again high pressure should remain in place through the weekend. Guidance
suggests a system moving north of the area early next week. This
should could increased rain chances a little bit but it is
uncertain how much this will get into the area. Will have to watch
for more guidance in order to adjust pops accordingly. Temperatures
not expected to deviate from mid 90s through this part of the
forecast period.

AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions to prevail at all terminal locations next
24 hours. IFR conditions at KHUM appears to be local ground fog
affects and will likely improve abruptly when observations become
augmented after daybreak. convective coverage should remain isolated
and not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light onshore flow and low seas is expected to prevail next 5 days
or so under developing bermuda ridge extension regime over the
weekend into early next week. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  95  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  94  76  94  77 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  91  77  92  78 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  92  75  93  76 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011156
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
656 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 01/12Z terminal forecast period expecting brief mvfr
visibility restrictions this morning at KLFK and KMLU and again
during the Saturday morning between 02/11Z-02/13Z...otherwise
vfr flight categories expected. winds will be light and variable
less than 7 knots. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have been watching convection upstream across Ncntrl AR diminish this
morning as they approached the Little Rock area...associated with
upper level shortwave energy diving SE from the MS Valley SW into AR.
While the latest mosaic radar imagery has mostly disspated the
convection this morning...an associated outflow bndry has been visible
in the radar and latest sfc obs extending from just SW of FSM...to
near MWT...HOT...and PBF. With the center of the H700-500 upper level
ridge expected to build E across N TX this morning and into E TX/N
LA/extreme Srn Ar this afternoon...weak perturbations aloft should
continue to drift atop the ridge across OK and into AR...and help
focus isolated convection this afternoon along this and other
potential mesoscale bndrys once heating/better instability has been
realized. Have added slight chance pops this afternoon and early
evening for McCurtain Co. OK as well as the Nrn counties iN SW
AR...before the convection diminishes with the loss of heating later
this evening. Farther S...subsidence beneath the upper ridge center as
well as the sfc ridge will contribute to another hot afternoon...with
the drier air above the bndry lyr quickly mixing down resulting in a
bit more tolerable RH/s similar to Thursday. Light SSE winds should
return though to E TX/SE OK this afternoon and result in a slow
advection of higher humidities...with this moistening air mass
contributing to slightly milder min temps tonight and higher RH/S
Saturday areawide.

The upper ridge center remains progged to shift SE but expand NNE
across the Lower MS Valley Saturday...thus inhibiting any isolated convection
development. Should also see a return to heat indices ranging between
100-105 degrees with the return to SSW winds both Saturday and Sunday...as
temps approach the upper 90s especially over portions of Ncntrl LA
beneath the ridge center. Afterwards...not expecting min temps to fall
much below the upper 70s as bndry lyr winds stay up over the next
several days. The ECMWF has finally begun to show signs of the
GFS/Canadian in flattening the upper ridge late Sunday into Monday in
response to a weak shortwave trough that will lift out of the Desert
SW and shift E across the Srn Rockies/Srn Plains. The GFS remains more
bullish with convective development over much of OK/TX Sunday
afternoon before shifting E into NE TX/AR Sunday night/Monday. Prefer
more of a blend of the Canadian/ECMWF with a weaker trough...with sct
convection still affecting portions of N TX/SE OK Sunday night before
reaching the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR Monday. Have increased pops
to low chance for extreme SE OK Sunday night...and expanded chance
pops Monday along I-30. Not quite sure how far this convection would
expand SSE into E TX/possibly N LA Monday afternoon...with the
proximity of the flat upper ridging in place over these areas. Did
expand slight chance pops S to the I-20 corridor of E TX as well as
extreme Srn AR...and left the remainder of E TX/N LA dry for now given
the consensus of the drier ECMWF/Canadian blend.

This may be the only wetting rainfall portions of the area will
receive throughout much of next week...as upper level ridging looks to
rebuild over the Srn Plains/lower MS Valley. This will maintain max
temps in the mid/possibly upper 90s for the remainder of the
extended...and possibly necessitating the need for heat headlines at
that time given the higher RH/s expected.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  96  72  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
DEQ  94  69  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  96  73  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  95  70  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  97  75  96  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  96  73  96  77 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/15



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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011130
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
630 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.AVIATION...High pressure with drier air continues to overspread
the region. Any shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
to remain over the gulf waters. Clear to mostly clear skies over
all terminals and VFR ahead.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the
upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front
pushes into Missouri this morning.

Along the gulf coast... radar is indicating a few showers
offshore of CRP. Temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s
along the I-10 corridor with upper 60s across central Louisiana.
The main reason for temperature differences across se Tx and srn
La is a old decaying frontal boundary. This boundary is expected
to fall apart today with southerly flow expected to become
establish on Saturday.

Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in
from the west. That will mean fewer clouds and no rain cooled air
to trim afternoon temps a bit. The heat index will climb to around
the century mark today. The afternoon temperatures and heat index
will gradually rise into next week with heat indices around 105 to
107.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  93  77  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  20  10  10  10
BPT  94  76  94  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011007
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
507 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have been watching convection upstream across Ncntrl AR diminish this
morning as they approached the Little Rock area...associated with
upper level shortwave energy diving SE from the MS Valley SW into AR.
While the latest mosaic radar imagery has mostly disspated the
convection this morning...an associated outflow bndry has been visible
in the radar and latest sfc obs extending from just SW of FSM...to
near MWT...HOT...and PBF. With the center of the H700-500 upper level
ridge expected to build E across N TX this morning and into E TX/N
LA/extreme Srn Ar this afternoon...weak perturbations aloft should
continue to drift atop the ridge across OK and into AR...and help
focus isolated convection this afternoon along this and other
potential mesoscale bndrys once heating/better instability has been
realized. Have added slight chance pops this afternoon and early
evening for McCurtain Co. OK as well as the Nrn counties iN SW
AR...before the convection diminishes with the loss of heating later
this evening. Farther S...subsidence beneath the upper ridge center as
well as the sfc ridge will contribute to another hot afternoon...with
the drier air above the bndry lyr quickly mixing down resulting in a
bit more tolerable RH/s similar to Thursday. Light SSE winds should
return though to E TX/SE OK this afternoon and result in a slow
advection of higher humidities...with this moistening air mass
contributing to slightly milder min temps tonight and higher RH/S
Saturday areawide.

The upper ridge center remains progged to shift SE but expand NNE
across the Lower MS Valley Saturday...thus inhibiting any isolated convection
development. Should also see a return to heat indices ranging between
100-105 degrees with the return to SSW winds both Saturday and Sunday...as
temps approach the upper 90s especially over portions of Ncntrl LA
beneath the ridge center. Afterwards...not expecting min temps to fall
much below the upper 70s as bndry lyr winds stay up over the next
several days. The ECMWF has finally begun to show signs of the
GFS/Canadian in flattening the upper ridge late Sunday into Monday in
response to a weak shortwave trough that will lift out of the Desert
SW and shift E across the Srn Rockies/Srn Plains. The GFS remains more
bullish with convective development over much of OK/TX Sunday
afternoon before shifting E into NE TX/AR Sunday night/Monday. Prefer
more of a blend of the Canadian/ECMWF with a weaker trough...with sct
convection still affecting portions of N TX/SE OK Sunday night before
reaching the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR Monday. Have increased pops
to low chance for extreme SE OK Sunday night...and expanded chance
pops Monday along I-30. Not quite sure how far this convection would
expand SSE into E TX/possibly N LA Monday afternoon...with the
proximity of the flat upper ridging in place over these areas. Did
expand slight chance pops S to the I-20 corridor of E TX as well as
extreme Srn AR...and left the remainder of E TX/N LA dry for now given
the consensus of the drier ECMWF/Canadian blend.

This may be the only wetting rainfall portions of the area will
receive throughout much of next week...as upper level ridging looks to
rebuild over the Srn Plains/lower MS Valley. This will maintain max
temps in the mid/possibly upper 90s for the remainder of the
extended...and possibly necessitating the need for heat headlines at
that time given the higher RH/s expected.

Prelims to follow below...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  77 /   0   0   5   5
MLU  96  72  97  75 /   0   0   5   5
DEQ  94  69  94  73 /  20  10   5   5
TXK  96  73  96  76 /   5   5   5   5
ELD  95  70  96  74 /   5   5   5   5
TYR  97  75  96  77 /   5   5   5   5
GGG  96  73  96  77 /   5   0   5   5
LFK  96  74  96  75 /   5   5  10   5

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010847
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A pretty quiet radar this morning across the forecast area. Not as
much convection over the coastal waters this morning so things
should not be as exciting as previous mornings around here. No
major changes in the forecast as high pressure starts to build
into the region today. Rain chances will be small again today with
a slight chance of a shower or storm mainly along and south of
I-10/12. The heat will become the story as temperatures will
remain in the low to mid 90s today and through the weekend. Rain
chances through the weekend will be small as well with a small
chances of a shower or storm forming along seabreeze or lake
breezes.

.LONG TERM...
Again high pressure should remain in place through the weekend. Guidance
suggests a system moving north of the area early next week. This
should could increased rain chances a little bit but it is
uncertain how much this will get into the area. Will have to watch
for more guidance in order to adjust pops accordingly. Temperatures
not expected to deviate from mid 90s through this part of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions to prevail at all terminal locations next
24 hours. IFR conditions at KHUM appears to be local ground fog
affects and will likely improve abruptly when observations become
augmented after daybreak. convective coverage should remain isolated
and not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow and low seas is expected to prevail next 5 days
or so under developing bermuda ridge extension regime over the
weekend into early next week. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  95  74  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  94  76  94  77 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  92  78  93  78 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  91  77  92  78 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  92  75  93  76 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010824
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
324 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Quite a range of temperatures across the US this morning with the
upper plain states reporting upper 40s to mid 50s as a cold front
pushes into Missouri this morning.

Along the gulf coast... radar is indicating a few showers
offshore of CRP. Temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 70s
along the I-10 corridor with upper 60s across central Louisiana.
The main reason for temperature differences across se Tx and srn
La is a old decaying frontal boundary. This boundary is expected
to fall apart today with southerly flow expected to become
establish on Saturday.

Rain chances are also falling as the ridge aloft builds back in
from the west. That will mean fewer clouds and no rain cooled air
to trim afternoon temps a bit. The heat index will climb to around
the century mark today. The afternoon temperatures and heat index
will gradually rise into next week with heat indices around 105 to
107.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  93  77  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  94  77  95  77 /  20  10  10  10
BPT  94  76  94  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010452
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Rather light and at times variable southeast winds occurring at
the TAF sites tonight. Potential still exists for VFR-MVFR fog to
develop particularly at kmlu, klfk and keld overnight. Otherwise,
SKC will give way to FEW-SCT VFR CIGS Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly persistent conditions with the upper ridge resulting in 9
pm temps falling into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Expect
overnight lows around 70 north once again and lower to mid 70s
elsewhere as dewpoints remain mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Very isold convection just outside cwa has diminished. No
update needed./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Very dry atmosphere for the last day of June resulted in limited
CU this afternoon with temperatures easily topping 90 degrees with
many areas reaching the mid 90s. This general pattern with prevail
into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west
begins to build back into the region. The only change will come by
way of returning southerly winds on Saturday and the subsequent
climb in humidity. This may warrant heat advisories for the latter
half of the holiday weekend to include the 4th of July on Monday.
However, the next chance of showers and thunderstorms will also
come back into play late Sunday through Independence Day as a
frontal boundary advances southward from the Plains. The question
is how far south will the front make it before being shunted east
by the Gulf coast ridge, which is still expected to be firmly in
place. Regardless, it does appear that scattered convection will
be a good bet at least for the I-30 corridor and possibly as far
south as the I-20 corridor. This could certainly impact outdoor
plans and festivities for the holiday on Monday.

The ridge looks to reestablish control by mid week with decreasing
rain chances and the potential for additional heat advisories as
we maintain deep southerly flow and high temperatures likely still
running in the mid 90s, possibly flirting with upper 90s for much
of next week. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  68  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  97  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010452
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Rather light and at times variable southeast winds occurring at
the TAF sites tonight. Potential still exists for VFR-MVFR fog to
develop particularly at kmlu, klfk and keld overnight. Otherwise,
SKC will give way to FEW-SCT VFR CIGS Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fairly persistent conditions with the upper ridge resulting in 9
pm temps falling into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Expect
overnight lows around 70 north once again and lower to mid 70s
elsewhere as dewpoints remain mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Very isold convection just outside cwa has diminished. No
update needed./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Very dry atmosphere for the last day of June resulted in limited
CU this afternoon with temperatures easily topping 90 degrees with
many areas reaching the mid 90s. This general pattern with prevail
into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west
begins to build back into the region. The only change will come by
way of returning southerly winds on Saturday and the subsequent
climb in humidity. This may warrant heat advisories for the latter
half of the holiday weekend to include the 4th of July on Monday.
However, the next chance of showers and thunderstorms will also
come back into play late Sunday through Independence Day as a
frontal boundary advances southward from the Plains. The question
is how far south will the front make it before being shunted east
by the Gulf coast ridge, which is still expected to be firmly in
place. Regardless, it does appear that scattered convection will
be a good bet at least for the I-30 corridor and possibly as far
south as the I-20 corridor. This could certainly impact outdoor
plans and festivities for the holiday on Monday.

The ridge looks to reestablish control by mid week with decreasing
rain chances and the potential for additional heat advisories as
we maintain deep southerly flow and high temperatures likely still
running in the mid 90s, possibly flirting with upper 90s for much
of next week. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  68  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  97  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/07/19




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010443
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1145 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...All is quiet now aviation wise. All terminals currently
reside in vfr status and see no real impacts outside of the normal
problem locations seeing tempo mvfr vsbys and cigs but that should
be minimal. Convection will have a harder time today but can not
rule out a storm or two; however the chances are so low have opted
to keep vcts out of the terminals for now. CAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  73  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  74  94  76  94 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  77  92  78  93 /  20  30  10  30
GPT  75  91  77  92 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  73  92  75  93 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010424
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1124 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the 01/06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection has dissipated for the night leaving behind stable
conditions with mostly clear skies and light winds. KARA received
rainfall this afternoon from a thunderstorm. Therefore, this site
may see some low clouds and patchy fog that could bring about a
period of MVFR conditions around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
conditions at all other sites. On Friday, does not look like too
much in the way of convection as upper level ridge continues to
build in. Probability of showers or storms too low to mention even
VC at any TAF site.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 909 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

UPDATE...The modest convection across the area this past afternoon
continues to decay as heating is lost. The previous forecast is on
target for tonight and no changes are needed at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Regional 88D mosaic continues to show convection associated with
weak low/shear axis aloft developing over the coastal waters...
particularly just off the mouth of the Atchafalaya River. Local
88Ds show a sea breeze front developing along the coast ATTM with
a few showers beginning to pop up along it west of Marsh Island.
Otherwise another typical summer-like day ongoing as sfc
obs/satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies and warm temps in
the 90s persisting.

Best POPs will linger over the coastal waters tonight as the
feature aloft pushes slowly ewd and out of the area. Slim daylight
POPs linger into the holiday weekend as drying on the backside of
an ern conus trof limits moisture especially at the mid/upper
levels per forecast soundings. Convection could get a little boost
as weak low-level flow should allow for sea breeze development
each day...but again moisture looks rather limited. As ridging
aloft gets a firmer grip on the region next week...rain chances
look practically nil for the first full week of July.

Main story looks to be the heat/humidity as sfc high gradually
pushes east of the area and onshore flow develops...pushing up
dewpoints. Apparent temps mostly top out around 105F the next few
days...but some locations could approach the heat advisory
threshold of 108F. For now not looking at any advisories to be
issued but heat-related cautions have been mentioned in local
HWO/FWF products.

MARINE...
Light and somewhat variable winds should persist through Friday as
a decaying sfc boundary lingers over the nwrn Gulf. Sfc high is
progged to build past the region early in the weekend...allowing
onshore flow to develop. Winds should remain light to maybe
sometimes moderate...with no flags anticipated on the coastal
waters ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  76  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010233
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly persistent conditions with the upper ridge resulting in 9
pm temps falling into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Expect
overnight lows around 70 north once again and lower to mid 70s
elsewhere as dewpoints remain mostly in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Very isold convection just outside cwa has diminished. No
update needed./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions occurring early this evening with light
East Southeast winds becoming variable at times. Could see
another round of brief VFR-MVFR fog developing at kmlu, klfk and
keld overnight as skies clear out and radiational cooling takes
place.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Very dry atmosphere for the last day of June resulted in limited
CU this afternoon with temperatures easily topping 90 degrees with
many areas reaching the mid 90s. This general pattern with prevail
into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west
begins to build back into the region. The only change will come by
way of returning southerly winds on Saturday and the subsequent
climb in humidity. This may warrant heat advisories for the latter
half of the holiday weekend to include the 4th of July on Monday.
However, the next chance of showers and thunderstorms will also
come back into play late Sunday through Independence Day as a
frontal boundary advances southward from the Plains. The question
is how far south will the front make it before being shunted east
by the Gulf coast ridge, which is still expected to be firmly in
place. Regardless, it does appear that scattered convection will
be a good bet at least for the I-30 corridor and possibly as far
south as the I-20 corridor. This could certainly impact outdoor
plans and festivities for the holiday on Monday.

The ridge looks to reestablish control by mid week with decreasing
rain chances and the potential for additional heat advisories as
we maintain deep southerly flow and high temperatures likely still
running in the mid 90s, possibly flirting with upper 90s for much
of next week. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  68  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  97  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010209
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
909 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...The modest convection across the area this past afternoon
continues to decay as heating is lost. The previous forecast is on
target for tonight and no changes are needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the 01/00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Just a few showers remain over the forecast area, mainly over
south central Louisiana. Therefore, will mention VCSH at KLFT/KARA
through 01/01z, then activity should dissipate with loss of
daytime heating. For the remainder of the night, mainly VFR
conditions with a slight chance of some low clouds and patchy fog
at KARA that could bring about a period of MVFR conditions around
sunrise.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Regional 88D mosaic continues to show convection associated with
weak low/shear axis aloft developing over the coastal waters...
particularly just off the mouth of the Atchafalaya River. Local
88Ds show a sea breeze front developing along the coast ATTM with
a few showers beginning to pop up along it west of Marsh Island.
Otherwise another typical summer-like day ongoing as sfc
obs/satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies and warm temps in
the 90s persisting.

Best POPs will linger over the coastal waters tonight as the
feature aloft pushes slowly ewd and out of the area. Slim daylight
POPs linger into the holiday weekend as drying on the backside of
an ern conus trof limits moisture especially at the mid/upper
levels per forecast soundings. Convection could get a little boost
as weak low-level flow should allow for sea breeze development
each day...but again moisture looks rather limited. As ridging
aloft gets a firmer grip on the region next week...rain chances
look practically nil for the first full week of July.

Main story looks to be the heat/humidity as sfc high gradually
pushes east of the area and onshore flow develops...pushing up
dewpoints. Apparent temps mostly top out around 105F the next few
days...but some locations could approach the heat advisory
threshold of 108F. For now not looking at any advisories to be
issued but heat-related cautions have been mentioned in local
HWO/FWF products.

MARINE...
Light and somewhat variable winds should persist through Friday as
a decaying sfc boundary lingers over the nwrn Gulf. Sfc high is
progged to build past the region early in the weekend...allowing
onshore flow to develop. Winds should remain light to maybe
sometimes moderate...with no flags anticipated on the coastal
waters ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  76  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010135
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
835 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Flight was launched on time with a weakening thunderstorm north
of the station. It appears that balloon may have caught an updraft
associated with the storm based on high ascension rates through
400 mb. Ascension rates above 400 mb were within tolerance. Data
should be used with caution. Flight terminated between Mandeville
and Lacombe at a height of 111,400 feet or 21.1 miles above the
surface.

Precipitable water was very high, 2.41 inches, with a saturated
sounding between 3,000 and 8,000 feet. Sounding was unstable with
a lifted index of -6 and CAPE of 2400. Boundary layer lapse rates
were around 7.5 J/Kg with mid-level rates closer to 6. Freezing
level was at 16,200 feet and the -20C level at 26,700 feet with
the wet bulb zero just under 15,000 feet.

Mean wind through the lower layers was 5 knots or less. Light
southeast winds at the surface became northeast at 850 mb,
becoming north by 550 mb, northwest between 500 and 300 mb, and
fluctuated between southwest and northwest for much of the
remainder of the flight. Peak wind was 42 knots at 35,000 feet.

35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Current synopsis shows broad upper trough over the eastern third of
the country and ridge to the west. The local CWA is on the sw cusp
of the trough but ridge is building in from the west/northwest. This
is evident in with the lack of inland convection this afternoon. The
bulk of precip remains offshore along a weak stalled frontal
boundary. Upper trough will slowly lift northeast Friday and
Saturday with weak ridge passing east along the Gulf Coast. This
will result in similar rain chances as today with the majority of
showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters and coastal
parishes/counties with minimal pops inland up to Interstate 12.
Temperatures will moderate slightly as well with highs in the mid
90s each day and heat indicies mainly around 103 to 107, or just
below heat advisory criteria.

LONG TERM...
No big changes late weekend through the middle of next week. A weak
trough will pass across the middle of the country Sunday through
Tuesday. Only a weak inflection of sfc and upper trough will move
over the forecast area. Thus not expecting a tremendous amount
rainfall, but rather slight chance to chance pops during that
period. Temperatures not expected to deviate from mid 90s through
this part of the forecast period.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
Isolated SHRA/TSRA will briefly impact some of the airports near the
coast and Lake Pontchartrain, so have mention in the vicinity and
also a TEMPO group of some lower conditions at a few airports.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Friday.
22/TD

MARINE...
A very weak surface pattern is in place. This will result in light
wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain at 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters.

MEFFER/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  73  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  74  94  76  94 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  77  92  78  93 /  20  30  10  30
GPT  75  91  77  92 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  73  92  75  93 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 302329
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For the 01/00z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Just a few showers remain over the forecast area, mainly over
south central Louisiana. Therefore, will mention VCSH at KLFT/KARA
through 01/01z, then activity should dissipate with loss of
daytime heating. For the remainder of the night, mainly VFR
conditions with a slight chance of some low clouds and patchy fog
at KARA that could bring about a period of MVFR conditions around
sunrise.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Regional 88D mosaic continues to show convection associated with
weak low/shear axis aloft developing over the coastal waters...
particularly just off the mouth of the Atchafalaya River. Local
88Ds show a sea breeze front developing along the coast ATTM with
a few showers beginning to pop up along it west of Marsh Island.
Otherwise another typical summer-like day ongoing as sfc
obs/satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies and warm temps in
the 90s persisting.

Best POPs will linger over the coastal waters tonight as the
feature aloft pushes slowly ewd and out of the area. Slim daylight
POPs linger into the holiday weekend as drying on the backside of
an ern conus trof limits moisture especially at the mid/upper
levels per forecast soundings. Convection could get a little boost
as weak low-level flow should allow for sea breeze development
each day...but again moisture looks rather limited. As ridging
aloft gets a firmer grip on the region next week...rain chances
look practically nil for the first full week of July.

Main story looks to be the heat/humidity as sfc high gradually
pushes east of the area and onshore flow develops...pushing up
dewpoints. Apparent temps mostly top out around 105F the next few
days...but some locations could approach the heat advisory
threshold of 108F. For now not looking at any advisories to be
issued but heat-related cautions have been mentioned in local
HWO/FWF products.

MARINE...
Light and somewhat variable winds should persist through Friday as
a decaying sfc boundary lingers over the nwrn Gulf. Sfc high is
progged to build past the region early in the weekend...allowing
onshore flow to develop. Winds should remain light to maybe
sometimes moderate...with no flags anticipated on the coastal
waters ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  76  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 302324
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
624 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions occurring early this evening with light
East Southeast winds becoming variable at times. Could see
another round of brief VFR-MVFR fog developing at kmlu, klfk and
keld overnight as skies clear out and radiational cooling takes
place.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Very dry atmosphere for the last day of June resulted in limited
CU this afternoon with temperatures easily topping 90 degrees with
many areas reaching the mid 90s. This general pattern with prevail
into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west
begins to build back into the region. The only change will come by
way of returning southerly winds on Saturday and the subsequent
climb in humidity. This may warrant heat advisories for the latter
half of the holiday weekend to include the 4th of July on Monday.
However, the next chance of showers and thunderstorms will also
come back into play late Sunday through Independence Day as a
frontal boundary advances southward from the Plains. The question
is how far south will the front make it before being shunted east
by the Gulf coast ridge, which is still expected to be firmly in
place. Regardless, it does appear that scattered convection will
be a good bet at least for the I-30 corridor and possibly as far
south as the I-20 corridor. This could certainly impact outdoor
plans and festivities for the holiday on Monday.

The ridge looks to reestablish control by mid week with decreasing
rain chances and the potential for additional heat advisories as
we maintain deep southerly flow and high temperatures likely still
running in the mid 90s, possibly flirting with upper 90s for much
of next week. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  68  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  97  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 302111
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
411 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Very dry atmosphere for the last day of June resulted in limited
CU this afternoon with temperatures easily topping 90 degrees with
many areas reaching the mid 90s. This general pattern with prevail
into the long holiday weekend as the upper level ridge out west
begins to build back into the region. The only change will come by
way of returning southerly winds on Saturday and the subsequent
climb in humidity. This may warrant heat advisories for the latter
half of the holiday weekend to include the 4th of July on Monday.
However, the next chance of showers and thunderstorms will also
come back into play late Sunday through Independence Day as a
frontal boundary advances southward from the Plains. The question
is how far south will the front make it before being shunted east
by the Gulf coast ridge, which is still expected to be firmly in
place. Regardless, it does appear that scattered convection will
be a good bet at least for the I-30 corridor and possibly as far
south as the I-20 corridor. This could certainly impact outdoor
plans and festivities for the holiday on Monday.

The ridge looks to reestablish control by mid week with decreasing
rain chances and the potential for additional heat advisories as
we maintain deep southerly flow and high temperatures likely still
running in the mid 90s, possibly flirting with upper 90s for much
of next week. /19/




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  94  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  68  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  96  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  73  97  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  96  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 302037
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
337 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Regional 88D mosaic continues to show convection associated with
weak low/shear axis aloft developing over the coastal waters...
particularly just off the mouth of the Atchafalaya River. Local
88Ds show a sea breeze front developing along the coast ATTM with
a few showers beginning to pop up along it west of Marsh Island.
Otherwise another typical summer-like day ongoing as sfc
obs/satellite imagery show partly cloudy skies and warm temps in
the 90s persisting.

Best POPs will linger over the coastal waters tonight as the
feature aloft pushes slowly ewd and out of the area. Slim daylight
POPs linger into the holiday weekend as drying on the backside of
an ern conus trof limits moisture especially at the mid/upper
levels per forecast soundings. Convection could get a little boost
as weak low-level flow should allow for sea breeze development
each day...but again moisture looks rather limited. As ridging
aloft gets a firmer grip on the region next week...rain chances
look practically nil for the first full week of July.

Main story looks to be the heat/humidity as sfc high gradually
pushes east of the area and onshore flow develops...pushing up
dewpoints. Apparent temps mostly top out around 105F the next few
days...but some locations could approach the heat advisory
threshold of 108F. For now not looking at any advisories to be
issued but heat-related cautions have been mentioned in local
HWO/FWF products.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and somewhat variable winds should persist through Friday as
a decaying sfc boundary lingers over the nwrn Gulf. Sfc high is
progged to build past the region early in the weekend...allowing
onshore flow to develop. Winds should remain light to maybe
sometimes moderate...with no flags anticipated on the coastal
waters ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  76  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

     Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Friday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302022
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
322 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Current synopsis shows broad upper trough over the eastern third of
the country and ridge to the west. The local CWA is on the sw cusp
of the trough but ridge is building in from the west/northwest. This
is evident in with the lack of inland convection this afternoon. The
bulk of precip remains offshore along a weak stalled frontal
boundary. Upper trough will slowly lift northeast Friday and
Saturday with weak ridge passing east along the Gulf Coast. This
will result in similar rain chances as today with the majority of
showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters and coastal
parishes/counties with minimal pops inland up to Interstate 12.
Temperatures will moderate slightly as well with highs in the mid
90s each day and heat indicies mainly around 103 to 107, or just
below heat advisory criteria.

.LONG TERM...
No big changes late weekend through the middle of next week. A weak
trough will pass across the middle of the country Sunday through
Tuesday. Only a weak inflection of sfc and upper trough will move
over the forecast area. Thus not expecting a tremendous amount
rainfall, but rather slight chance to chance pops during that
period. Temperatures not expected to deviate from mid 90s through
this part of the forecast period.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated SHRA/TSRA will briefly impact some of the airports near the
coast and Lake Pontchartrain, so have mention in the vicinity and
also a TEMPO group of some lower conditions at a few airports.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Friday.
22/TD


&&

.MARINE...
A very weak surface pattern is in place. This will result in light
wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain at 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters.

MEFFER/RR
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  73  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  74  94  76  94 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  77  92  78  93 /  20  30  10  30
GPT  75  91  77  92 /  20  30  10  20
PQL  73  92  75  93 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1259 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA will briefly impact some of the airports near
the coast and Lake Pontchartrain, so have mention in the vicinity
and also a TEMPO group of some lower conditions at a few airports.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Friday.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  30  20  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1259 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA will briefly impact some of the airports near
the coast and Lake Pontchartrain, so have mention in the vicinity
and also a TEMPO group of some lower conditions at a few airports.
Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions will prevail through Friday.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  20  30  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  30  20  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301748
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
30/18Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
KLCH radar and satellite imagery show widely sctd -SHRA acrs the
coastal waters with CU beginning to develop over inland areas.
Drier air noted aloft on WV imagery will continue to spread south
acrs the area today and this should limit convective development
inland. Overall, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the next
24 hours, with just an isltd aftn shower or storm possible between
20Z-01Z acrs the srn TAF sites. Some brief vsby reductions will
be possible at ARA due to patchy fog toward daybreak. NE/E winds
will gradually shift SEly late this aftn with speeds less than 10
kt, then become lt/vrbl overnight.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Combo of decaying sfc boundary and weak low/shear axis aloft
continues to produce scattered convection over the nwrn Gulf this
morning. Water vapor imagery shows a little area of drier air
pushing into the region from the north ATTM which should help
limit convection over the nrn zones this afternoon...otherwise
expect another summer-like day with a few showers/storms to
develop with heating later. Inherited grids/zones look in good
shape with minimal changes...thus no update is planned for now.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  20
LCH  75  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  75  93  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  74  95  77  94 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301743
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
VFR conditions will prevail for all terminal sites for the 01/18Z
TAFS packages. Winds will be light and variable today and
tonight. Otherwise for the KTYR,LFK,KELD terminals MVFR could
occur around 01/1200Z. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1120 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A near cloudless sky is observed across the region with 11 AM
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Expect some very
spotty CU to develop later in the afternoon but mostly sunny skies
will prevail. The current forecast look to be well on track so no
changes are planned at this time. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period. A
small area of AC near/just W of TXK should thin out by mid to late
morning...with a weak cu field developing by midday/early
afternoon especially over E TX/Ncntrl LA/SE OK. These will
dissipate shortly after 00Z...with possibly some thin cirrus
spilling SE into the area overnight. Any isolated -TSRA this
afternoon will be confined to SE TX/Srn LA...SSE of the LFK
terminal where the deeper low level moisture will reside today.
ENE winds around 5kts today will become LT/VRB after 00Z...with a
light SE wind returning to E TX late. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  71  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  70  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  72  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  69  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  74  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  72  95  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  72  95  75  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1120 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A near cloudless sky is observed across the region with 11 AM
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Expect some very
spotty CU to develop later in the afternoon but mostly sunny skies
will prevail. The current forecast look to be well on track so no
changes are planned at this time. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period. A
small area of AC near/just W of TXK should thin out by mid to late
morning...with a weak cu field developing by midday/early
afternoon especially over E TX/Ncntrl LA/SE OK. These will
dissipate shortly after 00Z...with possibly some thin cirrus
spilling SE into the area overnight. Any isolated -TSRA this
afternoon will be confined to SE TX/Srn LA...SSE of the LFK
terminal where the deeper low level moisture will reside today.
ENE winds around 5kts today will become LT/VRB after 00Z...with a
light SE wind returning to E TX late. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  95  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  95  72  95  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301555
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Combo of decaying sfc boundary and weak low/shear axis aloft
continues to produce scattered convection over the nwrn Gulf this
morning. Water vapor imagery shows a little area of drier air
pushing into the region from the north ATTM which should help
limit convection over the nrn zones this afternoon...otherwise
expect another summer-like day with a few showers/storms to
develop with heating later. Inherited grids/zones look in good
shape with minimal changes...thus no update is planned for now.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301247
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301247
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
747 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
The sounding this morning depicts a tropical airmass. PW is above
average at 2.05 inches and the profile is very moist from the sfc
to about 550 mb. Winds are light and variable from the sfc to 300
mb then become light from the west. About 1000 J/KG of mixed layer
CAPE and 2200 J/KG of most unstable CAPE will still allow for
scattered storms today... especially to the south and over coastal
waters. Waterspouts are possible under building cumulus towers
this morning as one was already reported at dawn near the
spillway.

Krautmann

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301146 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/12Z TAF period. A
small area of AC near/just W of TXK should thin out by mid to late
morning...with a weak cu field developing by midday/early
afternoon especially over E TX/Ncntrl LA/SE OK. These will
dissipate shortly after 00Z...with possibly some thin cirrus
spilling SE into the area overnight. Any isolated -TSRA this
afternoon will be confined to SE TX/Srn LA...SSE of the LFK
terminal where the deeper low level moisture will reside today.
ENE winds around 5kts today will become LT/VRB after 00Z...with a
light SE wind returning to E TX late. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure and northwest flow of dry air aloft to
prevail across the region through the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the mid 90s areawide
with dewpoint values forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s.
With drier air at the surface, heat index values to remain at or
below 100 degrees today.

Moisture to gradually increase across the region on Saturday as
surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow returns
across the region. With upper-level ridge forecast to build across
the region through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to
climb into the mid 90s areawide. Heat index values ranging from
100 to 105 degrees are forecast through much of next week.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through the forecast
period. The exception will be on Independence day as an upper-
level disturbance progressing east across the northern plains into
the midwest will allow for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the interstate 30 corridor. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /   5   5   5   5
MLU  93  71  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /   5   5   5   5
TXK  94  72  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
ELD  93  69  95  73 /   5   5   5   5
TYR  95  74  96  76 /   5   5   5   5
GGG  95  72  95  74 /   5   5   5   5
LFK  95  72  95  75 /   5   5   5   5

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300849
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Nocturnal showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
coastal waters this morning. These showers and storms are slowly
drifting northward. A few showers have developed over the land and
we could see a few showers this morning mainly along and south of
Lake Pontchartrain. In fact, that is where the majority of the
shower and storm activity should be this afternoon as well. Will
carry chance pops today for a large portion of the area with the
same threats as the last few days continuing today. Rain chances
will continue to fall over the next few days as this trough moves
east as high pressure moves in and the main storm track moves well
north. As the high moves in subsidence will occur and restrict
afternoon convection. Will still carry a 20 percent chance of
showers through the weekend as a shower or two may get going on
seabreezes and other common features. Temperatures will rebound
into the mid 90s this weekend.

.LONG TERM...
High pressure will remain in place through early next week. Expect
lower rain chances with only a 20 percent chance each afternoon of
a shower. Temperatures will be the main story as they will
continue to be in the mid 90s and could reach the upper 90s by
early next week. Some drier air from aloft should mix down each
afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 60s.
This will allow heat indices to remain in the 100 to 105 range,
and below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
Typical summer gulf breeze pattern with some convective initiation
in the mid afternoon to place thunderstorms in the vicinity of most
of the terminals. Generally VFR conditions outside convection. Wet-
microburst potential in the 25-35 kt range. Prevailing wind
direction should be variable between east and southeast much of the
day before becoming light and variable after 01/01Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Light wind regime to be greatly influenced by gulf breeze during the
daylight hours and land breeze in nocturnal hours for the next few
days. Seas should also remain 1 to 2 feet next 5 days in the open
waters and relatively calm in the sounds and tidal lakes outside
scattered thunderstorms mainly in the late night and early morning
hours in the near coastal waters. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  91  74  94  76 /  40  10  20  10
MSY  91  77  92  78 /  40  10  20  10
GPT  90  75  91  77 /  40  10  30  10
PQL  91  73  92  75 /  40  10  30  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 300832
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper




000
FXUS64 KLCH 300832
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
332 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Typical weather across the nation w/ storms in the plain states
and along the east coast. Temperatures range from upper 50s in the
northern plain states to the mid 70s across the gulf region this
am and mid 80s in the Florida Keys. Closer to home looking at
storms in the coastal waters off southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

A weak boundary in the coastal waters this morning will gradually
fall apart today. The ridge aloft that shifted back to the west
during the first part of the week is creeping back into our
region. This will dry the atmosphere out... with fewer clouds and
afternoon rains... temperatures are set to rise a bit over the
weekend and into next week. The heat index will again pop above
the century mark in southeast Texas today with southern Louisiana
expected to follow suit tomorrow. Since there is nothing that
looks to push the heat out of the region... next week will be hot
w/ afternoon heat indices will be above the century mark across
southeast Texas and southern and central Louisiana.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  92  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  91  75  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
BPT  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ201-215-216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

K. Kuyper




000
FXUS64 KSHV 300720
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
220 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure and northwest flow of dry air aloft to
prevail across the region through the remainder of the work week.
Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the mid 90s areawide
with dewpoint values forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s.
With drier air at the surface, heat index values to remain at or
below 100 degrees today.

Moisture to gradually increase across the region on Saturday as
surface high pressure shifts east and southerly flow returns
across the region. With upper-level ridge forecast to build across
the region through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to
climb into the mid 90s areawide. Heat index values ranging from
100 to 105 degrees are forecast through much of next week.

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected through the forecast
period. The exception will be on Independence day as an upper-
level disturbance progressing east across the northern plains into
the midwest will allow for a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the interstate 30 corridor. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  93  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  95  74  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  95  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  95  72  95  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300453
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...Only one terminal is currently dealing with issues and
that is HDC with lowered vsbys and cigs. All other terminals are
currently in VFR status and foresee this to continue through the
night and the morning until convection tries to develop again
tomorrow afternoon. That said terminals may not see nearly as much
impact from convection as they have the last two days but have opted
to mention VCTS at most terminals around 20/21z. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 300452
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1152 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
The lingering -SHRA that was once well North of ktxk have
diminished. MVFR haze briefly occurred at klfk earlier this
evening, therefore insinuating that holding on to overnight MVFR
fog as well as MVFR-IFR scattered CIGS is warranted. Furthermore,
can not rule out VFR fog at keld as hinted at by computer models.
Otherwise, relatively light East to Southeast winds are expected
throughout the TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
No changes needed at this time. We will resend the zones to remove
early to mid evening wording on slight/chance pops/wx to 03Z. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 300301
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
No changes needed at this time. We will resend the zones to remove
early to mid evening wording on slight/chance pops/wx to 03Z. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered -TSRA noted well North of ktxk and keld were gradually
drifting South. A few computer models hint at this activity
nearing/affecting the said terminals, therefore a VCTS is
warranted for a few hours. By this evening, any lingering
precipitation should be waning. Attention will turn to the
potential for VFR fog particularly at keld and klfk overnight,
with hints of FEW-SCT MVFR-IFR CIGS, more so at klfk. Otherwise,
light East to Southeast winds will prevail. Tomorrow afternoon,
chances for rain should remain South of all terminals, though can
not rule out a few stray storms nearing klfk.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 300136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
836 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak pressure gradient over the region due to
proximity to sfc trof across SE TX/S LA and adjacent coastal
waters. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA still occurring, but diminishing this
evening, confined to the coastal parishes/counties and eventually
the coastal waters once again. Updated forecast earlier to reflect
this, and current trends support eventually increasing SHRA/TSRA
across the coastal waters later tonight into THU. Otherwise,
ongoing forecast on target.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  30  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  50  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 300136
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
836 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak pressure gradient over the region due to
proximity to sfc trof across SE TX/S LA and adjacent coastal
waters. SCT SHRA/ISO TSRA still occurring, but diminishing this
evening, confined to the coastal parishes/counties and eventually
the coastal waters once again. Updated forecast earlier to reflect
this, and current trends support eventually increasing SHRA/TSRA
across the coastal waters later tonight into THU. Otherwise,
ongoing forecast on target.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  30  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  50  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300118
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
818 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Routine flight terminated over the middle of Lake Pontchartrain at
a height of 115,800 feet or almost 22 miles above the surface.

Airmass continues to be extremely moist with a precipitable water
value of 2.21 inches, similar to the previous 3 flights. Still
unstable with a lifted index of -5 and CAPE of almost 2000 J/Kg.
Lapse rates were between 5.5 and 6C/Km. Some dry air evident in
the sounding between 400 and 500 mb. Freezing level at 15,400
feet, -20C at about 26,000 feet and wet bulb zero at 15,000 feet.

Winds generally northeast to east from launch through 500 mb,
northerly between 400 and 500 mb, then generally westerly for the
remainder of the flight. A little more wind at jet level than the
last couple of nights with a 39 knot west wind maximum at 42,000
feet. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...

A weak upper level trough axis along with some difluence in the
upper level pattern will keep higher than normal chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow. The
driving factor on where the greatest convective coverage is
expected is the amount of atmospheric moisture in place. The
greatest amount of moisture will remain across areas along the
immediate coast and across the coastal waters. As a result, have
more numerous showers and storms in the forecast for this area.
For the remainder of the forecast area, some weak negative
vorticity advection on the western side of the trough axis and the
growing influence of a ridge axis across the Southern Plains will
allow for some slight drying of the mid and upper levels due to
sinking air aloft. With slightly lower PW values in place, the
forecast calls for only isolated to scattered convective coverage
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in
the lower 90s.

The upper level ridge over Texas will continue to expand to the
east on Friday and Saturday with diminishing rain chances each
day. This decrease in convective coverage and overall cloud
development is directly tied to the increase in subsidence aloft
which in turn dries out and warms the atmosphere in the mid and
upper levels. As a result, capping increases and convective
potential decreases. Have only isolated convection in the forecast
for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm
as the ridge builds in, and expect to see highs climb into the
middle 90s by Saturday. Heat index readings should rise into the
100 to 105 range as well.

LONG TERM...

The ridge axis should become stretched out in a west-east
alignment along the Gulf Coast by Sunday and remain in this
configuration through the middle of next week. This pattern
supports warmer than normal temperatures and lower than normal
rain chances through the entire long term period. The convection
will be very diurnal each day with thunderstorms only expected
once the convective temperature is reached each afternoon.
Given the higher convective temperatures needed to support
convective activity, only expect to see isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Have 20 to 30
percent POP in the forecast each day to reflect this risk. Once
the sun sets, any convection should quickly dissipate due to the
loss of instability associated with daytime heating. Temperatures
will be quite warm during the afternoon hours. Highs should rise
into the middle to upper 90s each day. Some drier air from aloft
should mix down each afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall
into the upper 60s. This will allow heat indices to remain in the
100 to 105 range, and below heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
evening. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to low
confidence. Convective coverage is expected to be lower tomorrow,
so no mention of thunderstorms is in forecast.

MARINE...

High pressure will remain in firm control of the coastal waters
through the holiday weekend. Winds will generally be around 10
knots or less, and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through
the period. There will continue to some convective activity
developing through Friday as a weak upper level trough slowly
moves east toward the Florida Panhandle. This convection could
produce gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts each day.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 292328
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
628 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered -TSRA noted well North of ktxk and keld were gradually
drifting South. A few computer models hint at this activity
nearing/affecting the said terminals, therefore a VCTS is
warranted for a few hours. By this evening, any lingering
precipitation should be waning. Attention will turn to the
potential for VFR fog particularly at keld and klfk overnight,
with hints of FEW-SCT MVFR-IFR CIGS, more so at klfk. Otherwise,
light East to Southeast winds will prevail. Tomorrow afternoon,
chances for rain should remain South of all terminals, though can
not rule out a few stray storms nearing klfk.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/24/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 292326
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
To add pops and weather over our Northern tier of counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The water vapor shows a little mid level vort over SW MO with a
waking short wave axis stretching into NE OK. Sfc winds are
Northerly and some of this may be orographic with heating, but a
weak complex TS outflow stretches from Little Rock over into SW AR
and as so, this activity may linger beyond sunset with a good
convective assist. We will monitor and update to add or remove.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  30  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  20   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 292256
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 292256
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
556 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...A few clusters of showers and storms will continue
across the area through the next few hours with KARA,KLFT, and
KLCH possibly seeing reduced vis and ceilings through 2Z. Mostly
VFR conditions are expected through the period, however isolated
storms are expected again Thursday.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 292101
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
401 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Hot but slightly less humid conditions are the best we can manage
this time of year with a weak frontal boundary ushering in drier
air across the region. So despite temperatures in the lower to mid
90s this afternoon, heat index readings have also remained largely
in the 90s with only a few areas reaching triple digit territory
in North LA where we were unable to mix out quite as much today.
Despite the lack of relief from the daytime heat, this drier air
in place will result in more pleasant nighttime temperatures with
lows falling off into the 60s over much of the I-30 corridor while
areas farther south should see lower 70s on the next few mornings.
Rain chances will remain slim to none during this timeframe so do
not expect any relief from the afternoon heat through the end of
the week except for possibly our far northern counties in SW AR
and SE OK as another frontal boundary approaches with additional
short wave energy later on Friday.

By Saturday, expect southerly winds to return with increasingly
humid conditions more typical of summertime. This pattern will
prevail through the holiday weekend as upper level ridging takes
hold once again. Convection will be very isolated and mainly be
confined to our far southern tier through Sunday. Slightly better
rain chances may come by the 4th of July holiday as another front
moves south from the Plains, mainly over the I-30 corridor as this
front looks to be shunted eastward with the upper level ridge
still dominating along the Gulf coast states. This will keep our
temperatures running in the mid 90s for highs with some areas even
approaching upper 90s during the holiday weekend. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  70  93  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
DEQ  67  94  70  93 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  70  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
ELD  66  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
TYR  73  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  71  95  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  73  95  72  95 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KLIX 292040
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
340 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A weak upper level trough axis along with some difluence in the
upper level pattern will keep higher than normal chances of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through tomorrow. The
driving factor on where the greatest convective coverage is
expected is the amount of atmospheric moisture in place. The
greatest amount of moisture will remain across areas along the
immediate coast and across the coastal waters. As a result, have
more numerous showers and storms in the forecast for this area.
For the remainder of the forecast area, some weak negative
vorticity advection on the western side of the trough axis and the
growing influence of a ridge axis across the Southern Plains will
allow for some slight drying of the mid and upper levels due to
sinking air aloft. With slightly lower PW values in place, the
forecast calls for only isolated to scattered convective coverage
tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages in
the lower 90s.

The upper level ridge over Texas will continue to expand to the
east on Friday and Saturday with diminishing rain chances each
day. This decrease in convective coverage and overall cloud
development is directly tied to the increase in subsidence aloft
which in turn dries out and warms the atmosphere in the mid and
upper levels. As a result, capping increases and convective
potential decreases. Have only isolated convection in the forecast
for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm
as the ridge builds in, and expect to see highs climb into the
middle 90s by Saturday. Heat index readings should rise into the
100 to 105 range as well.

.LONG TERM...

The ridge axis should become stretched out in a west-east
alignment along the Gulf Coast by Sunday and remain in this
configuration through the middle of next week. This pattern
supports warmer than normal temperatures and lower than normal
rain chances through the entire long term period. The convection
will be very diurnal each day with thunderstorms only expected
once the convective temperature is reached each afternoon.
Given the higher convective temperatures needed to support
convective activity, only expect to see isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Have 20 to 30
percent POP in the forecast each day to reflect this risk. Once
the sun sets, any convection should quickly dissipate due to the
loss of instability associated with daytime heating. Temperatures
will be quite warm during the afternoon hours. Highs should rise
into the middle to upper 90s each day. Some drier air from aloft
should mix down each afternoon, so dewpoints are expected to fall
into the upper 60s. This will allow heat indices to remain in the
100 to 105 range, and below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
evening. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to low
confidence. Convective coverage is expected to be lower tomorrow,
so no mention of thunderstorms is in forecast.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in firm control of the coastal waters
through the holiday weekend. Winds will generally be around 10
knots or less, and seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through
the period. There will continue to some convective activity
developing through Friday as a weak upper level trough slowly
moves east toward the Florida Panhandle. This convection could
produce gusty winds and possibly a few waterspouts each day.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  72  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
ASD  72  91  73  92 /  40  40  20  20
MSY  75  90  76  91 /  40  40  20  20
GPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  20
PQL  71  90  72  92 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLCH 292030
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
330 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
With daytime heating, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
have developed across the forecast area. This activity over land
will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Will
keep decent pops in overnight offshore and near the coast for
redevelopment of showers and storms.

Upper level weakness will gradually fill in over the next few
days. Until then, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon hours, with the best chance from the I-10
corridor to the coast with the seabreeze.

Over the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build in, and
this should decrease activity further, with isolated diurnal
convection at best.

For the 4th of July Holiday into early next week, upper level
ridging will continue to strengthen over the region, basically
eliminating showers and storms and any of nature`s fireworks. On
the other hand, hot and humid conditions will prevail, with
afternoon heat index values around 105F.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
An old weak surface boundary just off the coast will keep winds on
the light and variable side with relatively low seas through
Friday. Winds and seas will be higher near scattered showers and
thunderstorms that will be possible through the end of the week.

Over the weekend, high pressure over the Southeast U.S. will
become more established, and ridge across the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This will allow for a more light to moderate prevailing
onshore winds to develop.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
LCH  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  75  92  75  93 /  20  30  10  20
BPT  75  94  75  94 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM to 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc obs/satellite imagery shows morning low clouds have risen to
at least MVFR levels over the course of the morning...and with
additional heating expect sct/bkn cu to rise to VFR ceilings
before long if they haven`t already. Regional 88ds show a few
spotty showers popping up...these should become a little more
widespread during the afternoon as heating continues and
convective temps are met. Elected to cap precip mention at VC for
now as going tempo could be slight overkill...will amend once we
get a better idea of where the convection will have the best
coverage. Expect precip to end with sunset...could still see a
lingering shower or two mainly the sern terminals overnight but
not enough chance to warrant any mention attm. Forecast time-
height sections indicate a little drier low-levels late tonight
into tomorrow morning so VFR conditions should prevail.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sfc obs/satellite imagery shows morning low clouds have risen to
at least MVFR levels over the course of the morning...and with
additional heating expect sct/bkn cu to rise to VFR ceilings
before long if they haven`t already. Regional 88ds show a few
spotty showers popping up...these should become a little more
widespread during the afternoon as heating continues and
convective temps are met. Elected to cap precip mention at VC for
now as going tempo could be slight overkill...will amend once we
get a better idea of where the convection will have the best
coverage. Expect precip to end with sunset...could still see a
lingering shower or two mainly the sern terminals overnight but
not enough chance to warrant any mention attm. Forecast time-
height sections indicate a little drier low-levels late tonight
into tomorrow morning so VFR conditions should prevail.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity will be limited this afternoon with drier air
filtering in from the north but isolated shower may be possible today.
VFR conditions for all terminal sites through the 30/18z. TAFS package
with cloud heights above 5KFT will be common. Surfacre ridge overhead
will provide East to Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph across the region,
becoming light and variable overnight. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/21




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291730
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity will be limited this afternoon with drier air
filtering in from the north but isolated shower may be possible today.
VFR conditions for all terminal sites through the 30/18z. TAFS package
with cloud heights above 5KFT will be common. Surfacre ridge overhead
will provide East to Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph across the region,
becoming light and variable overnight. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/21




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291717
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
afternoon and early evening. TEMPO groups at KBTR, KHDC, and KASD
try to time out the storms that drift southward and amendments to
add in TEMPO groups at other terminals may be warranted later
today. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to
low confidence.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 291717
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

...18Z AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail outside of scattered thunderstorms
that develop and drift in a general southward direction this
afternoon and early evening. TEMPO groups at KBTR, KHDC, and KASD
try to time out the storms that drift southward and amendments to
add in TEMPO groups at other terminals may be warranted later
today. After storms dissipate this evening, VFR conditions will
persist. It`s possible some patchy fog may form toward daybreak at
KMCB, but have not added TEMPO group at this time due to
low confidence.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A moisture laden atmosphere persists over the central Gulf Coast
with a precipitable water value at 2.26 inches, which is just 0.1
inches away from the daily record. Yep, it`s muggy out there.
With widespread rainfall yesterday and an inversion up to 1000
feet, some patchy fog was able to develop with visibilities
dropping to 1 to 2 miles at its lowest over Slidell, Baton Rouge,
and McComb observing stations. The atmosphere remains unstable
with MLCAPE around 1150 J/kg, but lapse rates and shear also
remain weak. As was the case yesterday, main concern today will be
efficient rain producers as storm motions will be even slower.
Winds remain light and variable as we are about a month away from
the climatological lowest winds speeds in the atmosphere.

12z balloon info: A routine flight reaching 20.7 miles above the
ground after ascended for 105 minutes bursting over central Lake
Pontchartrain 22 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
One more day of much higher pops in store for the forecast area
today. Storms pushed off shore last night and this morning we are
getting some development over St. Bernard parish and the adjacent
waters. Some patchy fog is present over portions of the forecast
area this morning. Expect another day of widespread shower and
thunderstorm development. Will carry 60 to 70 percent chance of
rain for today across the area. The tropical moisture is still
present and expect showers and storms to produce heavy rainfall in
a brief amount of time. This could lead to some localized street
flooding. Other threats today will be lightning and gusty winds
with stronger storms. Going forward into Thursday, not much change
in the thinking. Some of the guidance has come in a little bit
wetter for Thursday. The main focus of shower and storm activity
should be confined closer to coastal areas, basically along and
south of I-10. Going into Friday high pressure builds in and
temperatures begin to rebound and rain chances will diminish. Rain
chances will be in the 20 percent range on Friday and temps will
start back reaching the lower to mid 90`s. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
Pushing on into the holiday weekend, the high pressure remains in
place and we continue to warm through the weekend. this high will
limit most convection Saturday through Monday with only a few
storms expected to pop up during peak heating hours each day.
Expect only 20 percent chance of rain at best each day through
early next week. Highs should climb into the middle to upper 90s
by Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to fall
into the middle to upper 60s, so heat index values should remain
in the 100 to 105 range. 13/MH

AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions expected at terminals through the forecast
period. TS chances will be high enough to set VCTS in prevailing
conditions today for mainly coastal terminals. Some light BR will be
possible at a few terminals overnight but this is not expected to
last long.

MARINE...
A weak trough remains stalled over the nearshore coastal waters. It
is expected to slowly dissipate on today through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity will cause winds and seas to be higher within
their vicinity and waterspouts will also be possible with some of
these storms. As high pressure settles back over the northern gulf,
sh/ts will decrease in coverage over the holiday weekend and winds
and seas will remain light.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  71  92  71 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  88  72  92  73 /  50  20  20  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  40  30  20
MSY  86  75  90  76 /  60  40  40  20
GPT  86  74  90  74 /  60  40  40  20
PQL  87  72  90  74 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291654
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Surface ridge building across the region to maintain east to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast period with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291654
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Much drier atmosphere compared to 24 hours ago per the 12Z SHV
raob leading to less cloud cover and a rapid warm-up underway this
morning, but some CU has begun to develop in the past hour over
much of the region. However, the lack of any significant mid-level
moisture and additional drier air mixing farther south out of S AR
should preclude any convection across the region today. Of course,
we cannot completely rule out a stray shower popping up during the
heat of the afternoon but this does not warrant any pops given our
current atmospheric profile. Thus, will let the current forecast
ride with afternoon highs projected to reach the lower to mid 90s.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Surface ridge building across the region to maintain east to
northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots with higher gusts this
afternoon. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions to prevail through the
terminal forecast period with winds becoming light and variable
overnight. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  69  93  70 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  94  67  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  94  70  93  72 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  95  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

19/05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291516
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1016 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
A very moist and unstable air mass is over the region today.
Latest upper air sounding from KLCH at 29/12z, has a precipitable
water value over 2 inches. Convective temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, so once that is reached around noon time, convection
should begin to develop. Best chance for shower activity should be
over the southern zones and near the coast...with an old surface
boundary and upper level weakness are located. Made some minor
adjustments to the pops based on current trends, basically lowered
inland for the remainder of the morning, as low clouds and patchy
fog has delayed heating, then increase pops for this afternoon.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

AVIATION...Will start with some IFR conditions at all terminals
this morning from fog and clouds. Conditions will improve through
the morning once again advancing into VFR. Radar depicting most
convection now offshore with the exception of a few showers over
interior southeast Texas. Ample moisture remains in place for a
few showers at all terminals through the morning, transitioning
into thunderstorms for the afternoon as temperatures warm. Will
continue to maintain VCSH overnight at our terminals of LFT and
ARA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temps have settled into the low to mid 70s acrs the rgn this
am. Radar is indicating storms down alng the cst sw of Vermilion
Bay. This activity looks to spread westward ovr the nxt svrl hrs.

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday although precip
chcs will be a bit less... precip wtr in the atmosphere rmns abv
two inches but is xpcd to drop through the day. Looking for cloud
development to begin around the noon hour with storms firing off
around 1 to 2 pm. Overall storm movement will be to the south and
southwest. Storms today will produce cloud to ground lightning and
brief heavy rainfall. Heat index to climb above the century mark
across central Louisiana and remain there outside of cloud and
storms. Elsewhere... over all heat index will remain from the
mid 90s to near the century mark.

This pattern will continue into Friday and through the weekend
with afternoon rain chcs dropping back into a normal pattern of
about 30 Percent drg the aftn hrs by Sat. As for the 4th... its
shaping up to be hot with only an isolated storm xpcd. This will
mean the heat index to range from 103 to 107 degrees inland
locations drg the aftn hrs. Take it easy and drink plenty of
fluids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  90  75  92  76 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  90  75  92  76 /  50  20  20  10
BPT  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




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