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000
FXUS64 KLIX 250509
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU IN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITHIN 300 MILES OF NEW ORLEANS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL
AGAIN WITH READINGS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...THEN
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 3-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING EACH DAY. 35

LONG TERM...

UPPER TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED...AND
CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN 20-30 POPS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROF/FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL NOTE
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE
FRIDAY FRONT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH PAST LOWER 70S NEXT SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND CURRENT FORECAST MAX FOR NEXT SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST AND NO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED. /CAB/

MARINE...

OVERALL THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THROUGH SAT. THE CTR OF
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TWRD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN/MON LEADING
TO ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING MON. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  84  58  82 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  54  86  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  54  84  60  82 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  60  83  64  83 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  57  83  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  53  83  59  81 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250440
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
EARLIER CIRRUS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AND AS A RESULT...WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE VSBY PROBLEMS AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS. FOR THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL PREVAIL 3SM AT BOTH TERMINAL LOCATIONS
BRINGING THEM DOWN WITH TEMPO GROUPS MUCH LOWER TO 1/2 MILE PRIOR
TO 13Z. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TXK/LFK
TERMINALS AS WELL. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE AT AROUND
5KFT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER
AROUND TO A SW DIRECTION AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MAINLY NEAR
4-7KTS. OTHER THAN THE VSBY CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE AND NO
UPDATED NEEDED.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  86  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  83  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  85  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  85  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  83  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  86  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  87  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  53  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 250245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
FOUR STATE AREA. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE AND NO
UPDATED NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHOULD THIN MUCH LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIMITED MOISTURE
BELOW THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT THE MLU
TERMINAL BUT CIRRUS MIGHT PRECLUDE THIS FROM FORMING. LOOKING FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT OR NEAR CALM WITH SW WINDS NEAR
4-7KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PASSING CIRRUS IS THICKENING OVER E OK...BUT WILL BE AN EVENING
AFFAIR FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND
SPREADS CLOSING WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG IN THE
USUAL SPOTS OVER AR...NE LA AND SE TX. OTHERWISE...A WARMER NIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AND CLOSER AND EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORDS IN THE 90 WILL REMAIN SAFE...BUT A
NICE EARLY FALL WEEKEND TO BE SURE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF THE NATION. OUR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON THE SURFACE WILL BOOST THE MERCURY INTO THE MID AND A FEW UPPER
80S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE INCREASING TOO WITH EVEN SOME
SCATTERED 60S. ASIDE FROM IN AND OUT CLOUDS THIS EVENING...MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND 1020ISH MB HIGH INTO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILTER IN FOR MIDWEEK AND
LINGER A BIT AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS MORE OR LESS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...STRONGER REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE WITH A LARGE
1035MB HIGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE MONTH AND FIRST
WEEKEND INTO NOVEMBER FOR THAT MATTER. MAV/MEX IS REASONABLE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  86  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  83  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  85  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  85  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  83  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  86  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  87  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  53  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 250050
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
OTHER THAN VERY SHORT TERM GRID REFRESH...SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT FALL WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILING AND BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE THE RESULT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT
MODERATION AND UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AND
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
RETURN AS A RESULT AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY VALUES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HOLDS. ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE NEARING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  83  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  55  84  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  83  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  83  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 242310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CIRRUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING SHOULD THIN MUCH LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE LIMITED MOISTURE
BELOW THIS HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AT THE MLU
TERMINAL BUT CIRRUS MIGHT PRECLUDE THIS FROM FORMING. LOOKING FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT OR NEAR CALM WITH SW WINDS NEAR
4-7KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PASSING CIRRUS IS THICKENING OVER E OK...BUT WILL BE AN EVENING
AFFAIR FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND
SPREADS CLOSING WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG IN THE
USUAL SPOTS OVER AR...NE LA AND SE TX. OTHERWISE...A WARMER NIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AND CLOSER AND EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORDS IN THE 90 WILL REMAIN SAFE...BUT A
NICE EARLY FALL WEEKEND TO BE SURE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF THE NATION. OUR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON THE SURFACE WILL BOOST THE MERCURY INTO THE MID AND A FEW UPPER
80S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE INCREASING TOO WITH EVEN SOME
SCATTERED 60S. ASIDE FROM IN AND OUT CLOUDS THIS EVENING...MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND 1020ISH MB HIGH INTO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILTER IN FOR MIDWEEK AND
LINGER A BIT AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS MORE OR LESS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...STRONGER REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE WITH A LARGE
1035MB HIGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE MONTH AND FIRST
WEEKEND INTO NOVEMBER FOR THAT MATTER. MAV/MEX IS REASONABLE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  86  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  83  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  85  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  85  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  83  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  86  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  87  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  53  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 242040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PASSING CIRRUS IS THICKENING OVER E OK...BUT WILL BE AN EVENING
AFFAIR FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND
SPREADS CLOSING WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG IN THE
USUAL SPOTS OVER AR...NE LA AND SE TX. OTHERWISE...A WARMER NIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST AND CLOSER AND EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. RECORDS IN THE 90 WILL REMAIN SAFE...BUT A
NICE EARLY FALL WEEKEND TO BE SURE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
MUCH OF THE NATION. OUR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
ON THE SURFACE WILL BOOST THE MERCURY INTO THE MID AND A FEW UPPER
80S THIS WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE INCREASING TOO WITH EVEN SOME
SCATTERED 60S. ASIDE FROM IN AND OUT CLOUDS THIS EVENING...MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND 1020ISH MB HIGH INTO MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILTER IN FOR MIDWEEK AND
LINGER A BIT AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS MORE OR LESS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...STRONGER REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE WITH A LARGE
1035MB HIGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE MONTH AND FIRST
WEEKEND INTO NOVEMBER FOR THAT MATTER. MAV/MEX IS REASONABLE
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AND HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  86  60  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  48  83  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  54  85  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  56  85  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  83  58  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  86  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  87  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  53  86  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KLIX 242025
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU IN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITHIN 300 MILES OF NEW ORLEANS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE CENTERED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL
AGAIN WITH READINGS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...THEN
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 3-4 DEGREES OF
WARMING EACH DAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

UPPER TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED...AND
CANNOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN 20-30 POPS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROF/FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL NOTE
THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE
FRIDAY FRONT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT MUCH PAST LOWER 70S NEXT SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND CURRENT FORECAST MAX FOR NEXT SATURDAY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED CONSIDERABLY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST AND NO ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

OVERALL THINGS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THROUGH SAT. THE CTR OF
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TWRD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN/MON LEADING
TO ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING MON. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  47  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  79  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  51  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  46  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 241941
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
241 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A PLEASANT FALL WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PREVAILING AND BRINGING NORTHERLY
FLOW AND A DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOW
HUMIDITY AND AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE THE RESULT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT A SLIGHT
MODERATION AND UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AND
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL
RETURN AS A RESULT AND THIS WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY VALUES.

A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
STALL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. HOLDS. ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE NEARING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON LATE THURSDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER CHILLY AIR
MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN FROM THE
NORTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
SLIGHTLY BUILDING SEAS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  83  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  55  84  58  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  83  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  83  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 241736
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND NNWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE. LIGHT AND VRBL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SWLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY WAS THE ONLY REASON FOR THE UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
PARTS OF NE TX REMAIN UNDER SOME CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND
ERODE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND
THE CURVE AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN THE HOURLY PROGRESSION WITH NO
CHANGE TO EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD A GOOD 5 OR MORE DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
EFFORT. THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AGREED WITH 79 FOR SHV. A NEW
SUITE OF PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT BE ON THE NOAA
WX RADIO AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE STILL A FEW BUGS DUE TO THE
RECENT UPDATE. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN.
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 241714
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1214 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING TO THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE MODERATING TREND IS
PROGGED TO ACCELERATE A BIT ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATE SAT PERMITTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY UPSTREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WRN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS AS THIS WRN TROF
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FETCH
AND INCREASING MSTR QUALITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL STALL AND WASH OUT NORTH/WEST
OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST HIGHS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...APPARENT OVER THE WRN CONUS
WED...BEGIN TO REAR THEIR HEAD HERE ON THU WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A ROBUST FROPA THU/THU NIGHT. CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREV FCST BY BLENDING THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS...SHOWING A
COOLING/CLEARING TREND FROM THU INTO FRI.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  53  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  79  55  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  76  50  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  77  52  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 241613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY WAS THE ONLY REASON FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PARTS OF NE TX REMAIN UNDER SOME CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE TO SHIFT AND
ERODE. OTHERWISE...CURRENT READINGS ARE RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND
THE CURVE AND HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN THE HOURLY PROGRESSION WITH NO
CHANGE TO EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD YIELD A GOOD 5 OR MORE DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS
EFFORT. THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING AGREED WITH 79 FOR SHV. A NEW
SUITE OF PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT...ALTHOUGH MAY NOT BE ON THE NOAA
WX RADIO AT THIS TIME. THERE ARE STILL A FEW BUGS DUE TO THE
RECENT UPDATE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY FG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A BKN 5KFT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER SE OK AND ECNTRL TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPILL S
AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT. A FEW CU WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E
ACROSS SW AR/WRN LA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THIN
CIRRUS WILL SPILLING S THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE...SKC WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z. LT/VRB WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONAL WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN.
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 241525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. THE
RESULT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. CURRENT
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING TO THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE MODERATING TREND IS
PROGGED TO ACCELERATE A BIT ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATE SAT PERMITTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY UPSTREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WRN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS AS THIS WRN TROF
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FETCH
AND INCREASING MSTR QUALITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL STALL AND WASH OUT NORTH/WEST
OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST HIGHS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...APPARENT OVER THE WRN CONUS
WED...BEGIN TO REAR THEIR HEAD HERE ON THU WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A ROBUST FROPA THU/THU NIGHT. CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREV FCST BY BLENDING THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS...SHOWING A
COOLING/CLEARING TREND FROM THU INTO FRI.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  53  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  79  55  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  76  50  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  77  52  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 241303
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
803 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A STABLE...DRY...AND OVERALL COOLER ATMOSPHERE SUMMARIZES THIS
MORNING/S SOUNDING. MORE SPECIFICALLY...A BIT MORE MOISTURE HAS
MADE ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE THIS MORNING BRINGING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE UP TO
0.61 INCHES. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ARE LOWER /COOLER/
THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT EVERY LEVEL IN THE
TROPOSPHERE. ONLY THE LOWEST 2500 FEET IS ABOUT 1 DEGREE HIGHER
/WARMER/ THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...WINDS ARE
FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FROM THE SURFACE TO 12000 FEET AND THEN
FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION ABOVE THAT. A PEAK WIND OF 86 KNOTS WAS
FOUND AT 40500 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT LASTED 113 MINUTES
AND REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING
SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT NEAR SHIP ISLAND 50 MILES DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES WILL GENERALLY ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PERSIST BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTH SHORE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS...HOWEVER...WILL GRADUALLY
WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. THIS WILL MARK THE
START OF A VERY SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO A BLAND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. TWILL NOTE THAT
THE MEX SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN IT IS ACTUALLY
FORECASTING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. STILL USED A BLEND...
BUT WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE COOLER EURO MOS GUIDANCE.

MOVING INTO MIDWEEK...A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COAST...BUT IT NOW
LOOKS AS IF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE
CLEARING THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH AS
THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS AWAY...AND WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING. IN GENERAL AM
CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LIMITED EVEN AS THE FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY RESTRICT
VSBY AT MCB AND HUM SATURDAY MORNING 10 AND 13Z.

MARINE...
A 1021MB HIGH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WEST TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ON THE LAND AREAS AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  58  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 241137 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY FG OVER PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A BKN 5KFT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED OVER SE OK AND ECNTRL TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPILL S
AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT. A FEW CU WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E
ACROSS SW AR/WRN LA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME THIN
CIRRUS WILL SPILLING S THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE...SKC WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z. LT/VRB WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONAL WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN.
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 241118
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING TO THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE MODERATING TREND IS
PROGGED TO ACCELERATE A BIT ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATE SAT PERMITTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY UPSTREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WRN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS AS THIS WRN TROF
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FETCH
AND INCREASING MSTR QUALITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL STALL AND WASH OUT NORTH/WEST
OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST HIGHS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...APPARENT OVER THE WRN CONUS
WED...BEGIN TO REAR THEIR HEAD HERE ON THU WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A ROBUST FROPA THU/THU NIGHT. CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREV FCST BY BLENDING THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS...SHOWING A
COOLING/CLEARING TREND FROM THU INTO FRI.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  53  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  79  55  83  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  76  50  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  77  52  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 241024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
524 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND ONLY
SLOWLY MODERATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AT THE SFC AND DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROF DIGGING TO THE EAST.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS ADVERTISED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS HEADING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THE MODERATING TREND IS
PROGGED TO ACCELERATE A BIT ONCE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA LATE SAT PERMITTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER
RIDGE IS FCST TO TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
FLATTEN OUT A BIT BY UPSTREAM ENERGY TRAVERSING THE WRN CONUS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RE-AMPLIFY OVER THE SE CONUS AS THIS WRN TROF
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW...RESULTING IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FETCH
AND INCREASING MSTR QUALITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROF WILL STALL AND WASH OUT NORTH/WEST
OF THE REGION...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS STILL
SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF FCST HIGHS COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.
DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...APPARENT OVER THE WRN CONUS
WED...BEGIN TO REAR THEIR HEAD HERE ON THU WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A ROBUST FROPA THU/THU NIGHT. CONTINUED ALONG THE LINES OF THE
PREV FCST BY BLENDING THIS SOLUTION INTO THE GRIDS...SHOWING A
COOLING/CLEARING TREND FROM THU INTO FRI.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A
LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  53  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  79  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  76  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  77  52  81  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KLIX 240820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE
LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LOW DEWPOINTS AND NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES WILL GENERALLY ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO PERSIST BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SOUTH SHORE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. AFTERNOON HIGHS...HOWEVER...WILL GRADUALLY
WARM ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. THIS WILL MARK THE
START OF A VERY SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...
SO A BLAND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE. TWILL NOTE THAT
THE MEX SEEMS TO BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE ON AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR
THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN IT IS ACTUALLY
FORECASTING UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. STILL USED A BLEND...
BUT WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHT ON THE COOLER EURO MOS GUIDANCE.

MOVING INTO MIDWEEK...A COUPLE SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE AREA.
THE FIRST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE COAST...BUT IT NOW
LOOKS AS IF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE
CLEARING THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH AS
THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS AWAY...AND WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL AREA. A STRONGER IMPULSE LOOKS TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT
INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA SOME TIME LATE NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TIMING. IN GENERAL AM
CARRYING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LIMITED EVEN AS THE FRONTS APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY RESTRICT
VSBY AT MCB AND HUM SATURDAY MORNING 10 AND 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A 1021MB HIGH FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO WEST TENNESSEE WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ON THE LAND AREAS AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  79  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  76  58  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  77  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  46  78  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONAL WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN.
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 240804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH TROUGH AXIS WELL TO THE EAST...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH 590 RIDGE INTO EAST TX BY FRI NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF SW AR/NORTH
LA...WILL BEGIN TO RISE INTO THE 50S LATER TODAY. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL BRING UNSEASONAL WARMTH OF MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS IN MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS.
GFS ALSO SLOWER THAN ECMWF WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND THUS DELAYED ISOLD CONVECTION UNTIL TUE AFTN.
POPS TO REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLD DESPITE DECENT LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
LOW LVL WIND SHEAR...AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL. HOWEVER...ADDED
SOME 30 POPS NORTH MID WEEK WITH K INDICES REACHING INTO LOWER
30S. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST OF AREA NEAR END OF
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO NO POPS. KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT APPEARING TO MAKE A SHARP
PENETRATION ACROSS THE REGION./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  78  52  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  79  54  85  56  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  77  57  84  59  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  76  54  83  57  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  82  59  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  80  56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  81  56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY FILTER SUNSHINE FOR ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOONS PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
CLOUDS DEPART TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN CLOUDINESS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER END WHERE THERE WAS. 35

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES...SO DO NOT REALLY EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE THE MINIMAL MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID AND LATE WEEK THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
NUMBERS...MAINLY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.  OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  AS A RESULT...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...

AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS TO END THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.  SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TO 1
TO 3 FEET BY SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY FILTER SUNSHINE FOR ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOONS PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
CLOUDS DEPART TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN CLOUDINESS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER END WHERE THERE WAS. 35

LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES...SO DO NOT REALLY EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE THE MINIMAL MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID AND LATE WEEK THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
NUMBERS...MAINLY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 35

AVIATION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.  OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  AS A RESULT...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...

AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS TO END THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.  SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TO 1
TO 3 FEET BY SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 240411
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SKC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY CLOUD COVER DEPICTED ON IR IMAGERY ACROSS NE OK
INTO NW AR. WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AND GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION. ALREADY SEEING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AT THE MLU
TERMINAL AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME AT THE ELD TERMINAL OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SPREADS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER BUT WENT AHEAD AND MADE
MENTION OF AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT
THE POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS TO FALL TO
LIFR CONDITIONS IF NOT LOWER.

ANY FOG CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE 13-14Z TIMEFRAME ON
FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. THAT WILL SPELL MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. ALL IN ALL...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...
AND ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS WERE MADE.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 240250
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. THAT WILL SPELL MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. ALL IN ALL...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...
AND ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS WERE MADE.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. MOST
OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME REMNANT 850MB MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT THIS LEVEL COULD
RESULT IN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. PREVAILED SCT050 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AS WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT CLOUD
COVER NEAR 4-5KFT ONCE AGAIN BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM ARKANSAS WITH ANY MORNING CU EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR VARIABLE
WINDS NEAR 4 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA
IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER ON TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR W/SW AREAS IN E/NE TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO
WE MAY SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS PERSIST THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240250
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. THAT WILL SPELL MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. ALL IN ALL...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...
AND ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS WERE MADE.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. MOST
OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME REMNANT 850MB MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT THIS LEVEL COULD
RESULT IN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. PREVAILED SCT050 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AS WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT CLOUD
COVER NEAR 4-5KFT ONCE AGAIN BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM ARKANSAS WITH ANY MORNING CU EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR VARIABLE
WINDS NEAR 4 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA
IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER ON TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR W/SW AREAS IN E/NE TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO
WE MAY SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS PERSIST THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 240153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
853 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER TROF MOVED THROUGH LATE TODAY, CLEARING OUR SKIES
AND PRODUCING DECENT THICKNESS FALLS TNITE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE I TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER. WAS ABLE
TO INDIRECTLY VIEW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE AND AGAIN NOTED A
PROMINENT SUNSPOT STILL EVIDENT FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER WEST TEXAS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...

BKN250....LGHT WNDS... P6SM... VFR THRU SUNRISE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER
E TX...CONTINUING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE
ENOUGH BREAKS TO VIEW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OF COURSE THE PROPER VIEWING EQUIPMENT...AND NOT
DIRECTLY WITH THE UNPROTECTED EYE. SAFEST WAY TO VIEW IT IS
FOCUSING THE IMAGE OF THE SUN ONTO A WHITE CARDBOARD WITH EITHER
BINOCULARS...TELESCOPE...OR PINHOLE THROUGH CARD STOCK. IT SHOULD
START AROUND 5 PM...WITH MID ECLIPSE CLOSE TO 6 PM WITH ABOUT 23%
COVERAGE.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES
THU AFTERNOON THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND
EXPECTED. WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP RETURNS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BUT EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE CHACE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU
THU UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER
AIR MASS TO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE 0-20 KTS WITH 10-15 KTS ACROSS
THE 20-60NM ZONES WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S-SE WINDS RETURNING THRU MID NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  81  55  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  53  82  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  47  80  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  47  80  53  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 232339
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

BKN250....LGHT WNDS... P6SM... VFR THRU SUNRISE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER
E TX...CONTINUING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE
ENOUGH BREAKS TO VIEW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OF COURSE THE PROPER VIEWING EQUIPMENT...AND NOT
DIRECTLY WITH THE UNPROTECTED EYE. SAFEST WAY TO VIEW IT IS
FOCUSING THE IMAGE OF THE SUN ONTO A WHITE CARDBOARD WITH EITHER
BINOCULARS...TELESCOPE...OR PINHOLE THROUGH CARD STOCK. IT SHOULD
START AROUND 5 PM...WITH MID ECLIPSE CLOSE TO 6 PM WITH ABOUT 23%
COVERAGE.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES
THU AFTERNOON THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND
EXPECTED. WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP RETURNS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BUT EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE CHACE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU
THU UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER
AIR MASS TO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE 0-20 KTS WITH 10-15 KTS ACROSS
THE 20-60NM ZONES WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S-SE WINDS RETURNING THRU MID NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  78  55  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  54  78  57  82  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  48  77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  50  77  53  81  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 232259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. MOST
OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME REMNANT 850MB MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT THIS LEVEL COULD
RESULT IN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. PREVAILED SCT050 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AS WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT CLOUD
COVER NEAR 4-5KFT ONCE AGAIN BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM ARKANSAS WITH ANY MORNING CU EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR VARIABLE
WINDS NEAR 4 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

13







&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA
IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER ON TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR W/SW AREAS IN E/NE TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO
WE MAY SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS PERSIST THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 232056
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA
IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER ON TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR W/SW AREAS IN E/NE TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO
WE MAY SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS PERSIST THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLIX 232015
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MICHIGAN INTO ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MAY FILTER SUNSHINE FOR ABOUT THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA DURING THIS AFTERNOONS PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AT THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
CLOUDS DEPART TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVEN CLOUDINESS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WILL GO WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE. TRENDED
TOWARD THE COOLER END WHERE THERE WAS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES...SO DO NOT REALLY EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE THE MINIMAL MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MID AND LATE WEEK THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORKWEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
NUMBERS...MAINLY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

A SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.  OVERALL...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.  AS A RESULT...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...

AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS TO END THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER GULF
WATERS.  A GENERAL NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER
THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.  SEAS WILL DECREASE FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TO 1
TO 3 FEET BY SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 10
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  77  45  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231926
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER
E TX...CONTINUING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE
ENOUGH BREAKS TO VIEW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OF COURSE THE PROPER VIEWING EQUIPMENT...AND NOT
DIRECTLY WITH THE UNPROTECTED EYE. SAFEST WAY TO VIEW IT IS
FOCUSING THE IMAGE OF THE SUN ONTO A WHITE CARDBOARD WITH EITHER
BINOCULARS...TELESCOPE...OR PINHOLE THROUGH CARD STOCK. IT SHOULD
START AROUND 5 PM...WITH MID ECLIPSE CLOSE TO 6 PM WITH ABOUT 23%
COVERAGE.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES
THU AFTERNOON THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND
EXPECTED. WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP RETURNS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BUT EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE CHACE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU
THU UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER
AIR MASS TO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE 0-20 KTS WITH 10-15 KTS ACROSS
THE 20-60NM ZONES WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S-SE WINDS RETURNING THRU MID NEXT WEEK.
.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  78  55  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  54  78  57  82  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  48  77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  50  77  53  81  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231926
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER
E TX...CONTINUING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX/LA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE
ENOUGH BREAKS TO VIEW THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH OF COURSE THE PROPER VIEWING EQUIPMENT...AND NOT
DIRECTLY WITH THE UNPROTECTED EYE. SAFEST WAY TO VIEW IT IS
FOCUSING THE IMAGE OF THE SUN ONTO A WHITE CARDBOARD WITH EITHER
BINOCULARS...TELESCOPE...OR PINHOLE THROUGH CARD STOCK. IT SHOULD
START AROUND 5 PM...WITH MID ECLIPSE CLOSE TO 6 PM WITH ABOUT 23%
COVERAGE.

THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE N GULF STATES
THU AFTERNOON THRU EARLY SAT...WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND
EXPECTED. WITH DIMINISHED WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT
LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

EXPECT SLOW MODERATION OF THE HIGH LEADING TO GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS FOR SAT...BECOMING MORE NOTICEABLY BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND S TO SE FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP RETURNS BY TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BUT EXPECTED TO
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE CHACE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THRU
THU UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION
THAT AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO BRING A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER
AIR MASS TO THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS THE 0-20 KTS WITH 10-15 KTS ACROSS
THE 20-60NM ZONES WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST BY SUN...WITH S-SE WINDS RETURNING THRU MID NEXT WEEK.
.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  78  55  82  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  54  78  57  82  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  48  77  52  82  56 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  50  77  53  81  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE
SURFACE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 6 STATUTE MILES. EXPECT TO SEE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
24/18Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA STARTING OUT AROUND 15 KFT
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 KFT AND ARRIVING AROUND 4-5 KFT. LOOKS TO BE
LATER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN CLOUD COVEAGE DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VBARIABLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY
LIGHT SHWRS OVER PARTS OF SE OK/SW AR/NE TX. HOWEVER...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THESE SHWRS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME AS THE TROF
ENCOUNTERS SOME VERY DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT PER THE 12Z SHV RAOB.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE TROF LIFTING NWRD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS ENDING. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING...ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE
COVERAGE TO THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS TO THE
WEST AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
158 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AVIATION...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE
SURFACE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 6 STATUTE MILES. EXPECT TO SEE VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
24/18Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA STARTING OUT AROUND 15 KFT
LOWERING TO AROUND 7 KFT AND ARRIVING AROUND 4-5 KFT. LOOKS TO BE
LATER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN CLOUD COVEAGE DECREASES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VBARIABLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY
LIGHT SHWRS OVER PARTS OF SE OK/SW AR/NE TX. HOWEVER...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THESE SHWRS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME AS THE TROF
ENCOUNTERS SOME VERY DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT PER THE 12Z SHV RAOB.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE TROF LIFTING NWRD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS ENDING. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING...ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE
COVERAGE TO THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS TO THE
WEST AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231715
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE RESULT
WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT...MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL...AND THIS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF
NICELY OVER C AND W TX...BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX
INTO W LA THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS ACTUALLY SOME ECHO RETURNS
OVER NE TX WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS IS VIRGA...OR NOT
REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR OUR FORECAST...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FROM W TO E THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND WEAK CAA FROM THE NE...AFTERNOON HIGHS OF THE MID 70S STILL
LOOK GOOD IN FORECAST.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 231715
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE RESULT
WITH CLEARING SKIES DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT...MAINLY
NORTHEAST WINDS FROM A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL...AND THIS WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF
NICELY OVER C AND W TX...BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX
INTO W LA THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS ACTUALLY SOME ECHO RETURNS
OVER NE TX WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS IS VIRGA...OR NOT
REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR OUR FORECAST...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FROM W TO E THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND WEAK CAA FROM THE NE...AFTERNOON HIGHS OF THE MID 70S STILL
LOOK GOOD IN FORECAST.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 231708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUD DECK RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET OVER KMCB AND KBTR...THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN
TERMS OF AVIATION IMPACTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MISSISIPPI VALLEY AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF CONTINUE TO INTERACT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  78  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 231708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

OUTSIDE OF A HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUD DECK RANGING AROUND 20K
FEET OVER KMCB AND KBTR...THERE IS REALLY NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN
TERMS OF AVIATION IMPACTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-MISSISIPPI VALLEY AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF CONTINUE TO INTERACT. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  46  77  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  48  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  76  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  50  78  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  44  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231608
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWRD ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY
LIGHT SHWRS OVER PARTS OF SE OK/SW AR/NE TX. HOWEVER...THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THESE SHWRS TO DIMINISH OVER TIME AS THE TROF
ENCOUNTERS SOME VERY DRY AIR BELOW 15KFT PER THE 12Z SHV RAOB.
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE TROF LIFTING NWRD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS ENDING. FOR THE UPDATE THIS
MORNING...ONLY MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE
COVERAGE TO THE EAST AS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME BREAKS TO THE
WEST AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TX INTO
SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST AR THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...WITH CIGS REMAINING
ABOVE 10 KFT. OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 24/12Z.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231526
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1026 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SW
INTO THE GULF COAST. WATER VAPOR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROF
NICELY OVER C AND W TX...BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER E TX
INTO W LA THIS MORNING. AREA RADARS ACTUALLY SOME ECHO RETURNS
OVER NE TX WITH THIS FEATURE. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...EXPECTING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS IS VIRGA...OR NOT
REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR OUR FORECAST...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FROM W TO E THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUD COVER
AND WEAK CAA FROM THE NE...AFTERNOON HIGHS OF THE MID 70S STILL
LOOK GOOD IN FORECAST.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 231243
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
743 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE
INVERSION HAS SET UP THROUGH ABOUT 900MB. DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX
THIS INVERSION OUT. THERE ARE TWO SMALLER...WEAKER INVERSIONS WITH
THE FIRST AROUND 425 MB AND THE OTHER AROUND 160 MB...WHICH IS
NEAR THE TROPOPAUSE. WINDS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND LIGHT. WINDS ARE STRONGER
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN
THE UPPER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND OF 66 KNOTS AT 36500 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT REACHED A
HEIGHT OF 19.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AFTER 93 MINUTES IN FLIGHT.
THE BALLOON WENT 29.6 MILES DOWNRANGE BURSTING OVER DIAMONDHEAD
MS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH OF THE LAKE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S...TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN. EURO HAS
SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE
IS THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A CLEANER/STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE EURO...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. LUCKILY THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...SO A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY ABATE TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET
OR LESS ON MONDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  56  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  74  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 231143
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TX INTO
SOUTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST AR THROUGH 18Z. HOWEVER THE CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON VISIBILITY...WITH CIGS REMAINING
ABOVE 10 KFT. OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH 24/12Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231141
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231006
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
506 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...AS THE MILD AND
DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

ELONGATED UPPER TROF QUITE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST TODAY. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS AND OB REPORTS OF DZ/-RA SHOWING UP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TX THIS MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO
DECREASING MEAN LAYER RH...IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
SQUEEZE OUT EVEN THAT. THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT. JUST A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER.

AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY TREKS
EAST. BY SUN...WITH THE RIDGE PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ALSO
FLATTENING OUT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WRN CONUS TROF...SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN...PROVIDING A MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION
TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR IN PLACE. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MSTR WILL RESULT...ALONG WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN POOR AGREEMENT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE GFS...INDICATING A WEAKER FRONT MORE LIKELY TO LIMP INTO
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...EXTENDED SMALL POPS INTO TUE NIGHT AND
WED...BUT LEFT DRY THEREAFTER GIVEN THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  77  55  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  74  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230849
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT FEW NIGHTS
NORTH OF THE LAKE AND NEAR NORMAL SOUTH OF THE LAKE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID 70S...TODAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY SLIDES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AGAIN. EURO HAS
SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT FRONT AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
GFS TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. ALSO OF NOTE
IS THAT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING A CLEANER/STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE EURO...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. LUCKILY THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...SO A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND BEYOND. A
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES 150-250 WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOTS RANGE AT KNEW AND KMSY
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY SLOWLY ABATE TODAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RELAXES.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST GETS
RE-ENFORCED.

THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF SOUTH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY MONDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD AND EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  SEAS WILL ALSO FALL TO 2 FEET
OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  77  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  77  46  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  77  56  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  50  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  77  44  78  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...18
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230800
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST WITH MOVMNT OF
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EAST TX/SE OK. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE REACHING
THE GROUND...SO WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHOWERS FOR THESE
SECTIONS OF AREA. THEREAFTER..CONTINUED DRY LOW LVL AIR ADVECTING
SWWD INTO AREA...AND BUILDING RIDGE INTO TX...WITH BOTH INTERACT
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS 590 RIDGE
BUILDS INTO EAST TX...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY IN
THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF AREA...WITH A FEW UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS MARGINAL
AND WILL KEEP ALL POPS ISOLD FOR NOW...STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STGR
LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A FEW TSTMS ACROSS
AREA INTO MID WEEK DURG EXTENDED PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  49  78  55  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
MLU  72  46  76  52  85 /  10  10  10   0   0
DEQ  72  49  79  54  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
TXK  72  50  78  56  85 /  20  10  10   0   0
ELD  71  45  76  53  84 /  10  10  10   0   0
TYR  76  53  81  58  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  75  50  79  58  86 /  20  10  10   0   0
LFK  77  49  80  55  87 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









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