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000
FXUS64 KSHV 051639
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N LA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH THE AID OF LATE MORNING HEATING...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX INTO WEST CENTRAL LA.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL KEEP VCTS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE TYR
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.

TERMINALS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF LIMITED VSBYS.

EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD CLIMBING AND SCATTERING
OUT BY 16Z MON.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051639
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BUT A LEFT OVER SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF N LA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS AVAILABLE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROUGH AND WITH THE AID OF LATE MORNING HEATING...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TX INTO WEST CENTRAL LA.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL KEEP VCTS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE TYR
TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.

TERMINALS IN AND AROUND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CAN EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AND BRIEF LIMITED VSBYS.

EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH THE CU FIELD CLIMBING AND SCATTERING
OUT BY 16Z MON.

13


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 051624 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051624 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051624 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051624 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051624 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
THE 2500 RANGE AND PRECIP WATER NEAR 2 INCHES. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REACHES
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE SOUTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
CENTRAL MS THAT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH AND EAST. STEEP LAPSE MID
LEVEL RATES FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUPPORT FOR STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. 21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  70  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  60  30  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  60  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  70  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  70  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051609 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051609 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BUT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SE NEBRASKA WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH TONIGHT. ASCENT FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRIDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BUT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  30  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051337
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051337
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051337
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
758 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND TRAILING INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. OTHER WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS ALONG
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OTHER TERMINALS DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL START OFF THE TERMINAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND GIVE
WAY TO MVFR INTO THE MORNING WITH VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN DURING THE LATER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM 06/08Z-06/14Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 051137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR WILL CONT ESE TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH AMPLE MSTR
AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST AT
KAEX AND LOWEST AT KBPT...BUT AGAIN WITH MESOSCALE DRIVERS LIKE
THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOWS AT PLAY...NAILING DOWN TIMING AT ANY
SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS A DUBIOUS PROSPECT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE EARLY EVENING...WITH VFR
PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

24

DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

24

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MANY OF US WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH...BUT
MOSTLY LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. OUR DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE
DRIER NORTH OF I-20. THE KSHV 88D IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM EL DORADO...TO
RUSTON...TO SIKES AND OLLA. MOVEMENT WAS DUE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
OUR UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE ON INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH NW FLOW ON UP.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING THE VORT THAT WAS OVER NE OK/W AR
YESTERDAY...NOW OVER TN/KY AND WRAPPING UP THE TROPICAL
CONNECTION WHICH STILL EXTENDS OVERHEAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
HEATING WILL ENHANCE LIFT WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE LOW IS SO
DISTANT...WE CAN EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN THE
LAST DAY OR SO.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W TX AND MEXICO ALL SET TO
EXPAND BACK NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD OVER US WITH HEIGHTS READY TO
RISE. THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT OUR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO JUST
ISOLATED OR NONE DURING THE WEEK AHEAD. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A
SHORT WAVE FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO THE BEST DAY
FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AS IT SWINGS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE THE
TROUGH/S LAST IMPULSE WHICH IS NOW OVER IA AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD
IN THE FLOW ALOFT. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAS BEEN WEIGHTED
INTO OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  93  76 /  30  20  10  10
MLU  86  71  92  74 /  50  20  10  10
DEQ  87  70  90  74 /  40  20  10  20
TXK  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  70  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
TYR  91  73  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GGG  91  73  92  76 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  92  74  93  76 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050941
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050941
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
441 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT ACRS TN
THIS MORNING...WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WV IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A COUPLE OF SPINNING LOW PRES AREAS ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND EAST OF FLA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF...WITH SLY WINDS USHERING GULF MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THAT CROSSED NRN AND CNTL LA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER CNTL LA AND THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING
OFF THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACRS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION (PRECIP WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES) AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEABREEZE ALONG WITH ANY LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
ACRS THE AREA WILL ACTIVATE CONVECTION. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS COULD PULSE TO MINIMAL SVR LIMITS AS
INSTABILITY IS ENHANCED DURING PEAK HEATING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...AFTN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

THE 700 MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AT 500 MB BY MIDWEEK.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL KEEP SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WILL LIMIT SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
AREA FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SLY LOW LVL
WINDS MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORT OF MOIST GULF AIR OVER THE REGION. AFTN
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S...NOT TOO FAR OFF SUMMERTIME NORMALS. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE...NOT QUITE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
USING PRECAUTIONS IF WORKING OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN CHCS WILL
STAY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME ISLTD TO WIDELY SCT
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM LATE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  74  92  75 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  90  76  91  78 /  30  10  10  10
LFT  88  74  91  76 /  40  10  10  10
BPT  91  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 050853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

.LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM.
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050457
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050457
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...WILL STAY WITH VFR AND VCSH BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN, NOCTURNAL GULF DEVELOPMENT,
AND AMPLE MOISTURE. BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY VCTS AND VFR EXCEPT AEX
WHERE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES FROM A MOISTURE POOL WILL RESULT IN
PREDOMINANT -TSRA WITH VFR TO START WITH. WILL LET SUBSEQUENT
RADAR IMAGERY DEFINE PERIODS OF ANY MVFR TEMPOS. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION ON SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED AIRMASS IN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY HAVE SOME NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
SHORT-TERM MODELS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO INDICATE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL FOR INCLUSION THOUGH MODELS WOULD FAVOR
KMCB...KASD...KGPT GENERALLY IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. RESIDUAL
MOISUTRE OVER THE REGION MAY ALSO IMPART MVFR VSBY THAT MAY BE
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM FIREWORK DISPLAYS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFER 15Z OUTSIDE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON LAKE AND GULF BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE QUITE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THATS EASY TO SEE JUST BY LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS VERY
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A MAX OF ONLY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES F IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS ALL EQUATES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES FOR PRECIP WATER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THIS STANDS COMPARED TO
NORMAL PER SPC`S SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1.75" AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS 1.93". THE RESULT OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MAX LOW/MID LEVEL JET IS ABOUT 35 KNOTS. SO
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH PRECIP LOADING.

MEFFER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED AIRMASS IN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY HAVE SOME NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS INDICATED BY CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
SHORT-TERM MODELS. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO INDICATE AT ANY
PARTICULAR TERMINAL FOR INCLUSION THOUGH MODELS WOULD FAVOR
KMCB...KASD...KGPT GENERALLY IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. RESIDUAL
MOISUTRE OVER THE REGION MAY ALSO IMPART MVFR VSBY THAT MAY BE
MIXED WITH SMOKE FROM FIREWORK DISPLAYS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFER 15Z OUTSIDE PERIODS OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON LAKE AND GULF BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 822 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE QUITE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THATS EASY TO SEE JUST BY LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS VERY
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A MAX OF ONLY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES F IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS ALL EQUATES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES FOR PRECIP WATER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THIS STANDS COMPARED TO
NORMAL PER SPC`S SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1.75" AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS 1.93". THE RESULT OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MAX LOW/MID LEVEL JET IS ABOUT 35 KNOTS. SO
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH PRECIP LOADING.

MEFFER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 05/14Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z...IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 05/14Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN
POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050300
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE NERN ZONES...
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND HELPED ALONG
EARLIER BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...IS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME. LIKEWISE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS DISSIPATING
AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED ON EACH OF THESE TRENDS...MORAL OF
THE STORY IS DIMINISHING POPS WITH TIME TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE JUST
MINOR TWEAKS...UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  50  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050259 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS FINALLY MOVED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH
OF THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF KTYR TO
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION FARTHER NW IN
SRN OK HAS BEEN QUICKLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL ACROSS THE REGION SO
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS HAS LARGELY STABILIZED...SOME MID LVL
DRY AIR IS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH...AND THE MAIN VORT MAX IS
MOVING FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM US. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LIMIT
POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS BOTH MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. IN
FACT...THE 00Z NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY. RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
ZERO SO HAVE GENERALLY MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

THE PRECIP AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE DISSIPATING CONVECTION
HAS ALLOWED TEMPS IN MANY AREAS TO FALL BELOW FCST MIN TEMP
VALUES. LOCATIONS THAT FELL TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F EARLIER THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR TEMPS RISE A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED THE MIN TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LOWS THAT HAVE
ALREADY BEEN MET AND THEN EDITED THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED IN THOSE COOL SPOTS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  20  10
DEQ  71  88  72  90 /  30  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  30  50  30  10
ELD  72  88  73  92 /  30  50  30  10
TYR  75  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  75  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KLIX 050122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
822 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE QUITE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THATS EASY TO SEE JUST BY LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS VERY
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A MAX OF ONLY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES F IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS ALL EQUATES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES FOR PRECIP WATER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THIS STANDS COMPARED TO
NORMAL PER SPC`S SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1.75" AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS 1.93". THE RESULT OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MAX LOW/MID LEVEL JET IS ABOUT 35 KNOTS. SO
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH PRECIP LOADING.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 050122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
822 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE QUITE A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THATS EASY TO SEE JUST BY LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS VERY
LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH A MAX OF ONLY
ABOUT 20 DEGREES F IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS ALL EQUATES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES FOR PRECIP WATER. IN TERMS OF WHERE THIS STANDS COMPARED TO
NORMAL PER SPC`S SOUNDING CLIMO PAGE...THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
BE ABOUT 1.75" AND THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS 1.93". THE RESULT OF
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MAX LOW/MID LEVEL JET IS ABOUT 35 KNOTS. SO
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH PRECIP LOADING.

MEFFER
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050053
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
753 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
POP GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BLOWN
UP AS SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW CONVECTION COLLIDED WITH INLAND-ADVANCING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  60  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050035 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050035 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
735 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE OLD WATCH AREA. HEAVIEST CONVECTION
HAS MOVED LARGELY SOUTH OF I-20 ACROSS DEEP E TX INTO THE TOLEDO
BEND COUNTRY AND N CNTRL LA. NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE NW ACROSS SRN OK WHICH SHOULD
MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. HAVE UPDATED
POP/QPF/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  20  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 042352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES AROUND AEX FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH TEMPO IFR. VCTS AROUND LCH DUE TO CB DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST...SHOULD BE DONE IN A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ON SUNDAY
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD AND
PRODUCES VCTS FOR LFT AND ARA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 042333
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 05/06Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND
05/10Z. VCTS CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 05/18Z. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KLIX 042037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 042037
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONT
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ORGANIZED SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER TO WELL INTO THE EVENING AND
SAG SLOWLY SLOWLY SOUTH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS ARMS REMAINS UNSTABLE UNTIL SUNSET.
WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...KEPT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE ON
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD START LIFTING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST DOMINATES THE WEATHER REGIME FROM MID WEEK TO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...90 TO 95 RANGE...AND ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 04Z LOWERING CIG AND
VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AFTER 04Z BUT CONTINUE THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  20
BTR  74  90  74  91 /  40  50  10  10
ASD  74  89  74  91 /  60  60  20  20
MSY  77  89  77  91 /  50  50  10  20
GPT  76  87  76  87 /  60  60  30  30
PQL  74  88  72  88 /  60  60  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 042013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...
HEAVY RAIN...AND OCCASIONALLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...STARTING
IN THE MORNING AS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE...BEFORE A MORE
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE SCENARIO AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
SUNDAYS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER IN COVERAGE IN ACADIANA
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND LOWER IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FOR THE WORK-WEEK...THERE WILL BE A MUCH LOWER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY A 20
PERCENT COVERAGE FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

WITH LESS THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  90  75  93 /  40  40  10  10
LCH  76  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  10
LFT  75  90  76  92 /  30  30  10  10
BPT  77  91  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041951
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
251 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SSEWD THIS AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CLARKSVILLE...SEWD TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DOES APPEAR TO BE MAKING SOME VERY SLOW SWWD PROGRESS. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE CONVECTION S OF I-20 BY 00Z. NOT
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE VERY SLOW
SWD PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS. HAVE KEPT THE ONGOING CONSERVATIVE
POPS FOR TONIGHT...AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY PLAY
A ROLE IN DISSIPATING STORMS. THEN LATE TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SEEN SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM...AND WILL
ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO REEVALUATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
REGION BEGINS TO DRY OUT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REINFORCE ITSELF OVER OUR REGION...AND
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RATCHET UPWARDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE DURING TUESDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OK/AR. THIS WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR
THOSE AREAS...BUT WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE DEPARTS TO THE NE.

CONSENSUS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE FOR TEMPS THROUGHOUT
THE PD...SO HAVE STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  10
MLU  73  88  73  92 /  50  50  20  10
DEQ  70  88  72  90 /  40  50  30  10
TXK  72  89  74  92 /  40  50  30  10
ELD  71  88  73  92 /  40  50  30  10
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  74  90  75  93 /  30  30  10  10
LFK  75  93  76  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041849
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015


.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF TSTMS..WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN..FQT LTG...AND POSSIBLE
GUSTY WINDS...MOVG SWD AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE MOVING
SE INTO CENTRAL AR. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED CONVECTION REMAINING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA ACROSS SE TX/CENTRAL LA. TSTMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH OF KTXK BY AROUND 21Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KELD...AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY
AT KSHV. TSTMS TO LIKELY MOVE INTO KMLU LATER THIS AFTN. WHETHER
EAST TX TERMINALS SEE ANY TSTMS IS QUESTIONABLE. TERMINALS THAT
EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...AS
LACK OF HEATING LIMITED TEMPS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THUS FAR AT
KTXK AND KELD AND GROUND WILL REMAIN VERY WET. THIS COULD ALSO BE
THE CASE AT KSHV AND KMLU WHERE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING. ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN CWA...THUS PLACED
TEMPO TSTMS AFTER 05/12Z AT KELD AND 05/14Z AT KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION... WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION
CO...UNION PARISH AND CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30.
OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND
LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR
PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID
TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST. THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE
TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE WATCH POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR TRENDS INTO
HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF TEXARKANA RIGHT
NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WE/LL
WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  92  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  90  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041543
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 041338
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING MEASURES PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT 2700 J/KG... MU CAPE 3600 J/KG. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP AT ABOUT 6.8 C/KM AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURE IS -10 C. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ENOUGH FORCING... WHICH WE WILL SEE FIRST FROM SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION OFF THE GULF JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA.
INDEED WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SFC TO 500 MB THEN
NORTHWEST ABOVE. LATER TODAY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD FROM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH LA AND CENTRAL MS...
WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR SW MS COUNTIES. THE 12Z SOUNDING
FROM SHREVEPORT SAMPLED THE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND STORM MAINTANCE
ENVIRONMENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS IS
SAMPLED BY THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING WITH PW AT 1.99 INCHES... AT
LIX THE PW IS NEAR AVERAGE AT 1.73 INCHES.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 041153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. INSERTED VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS MORNING EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY VS YESTERDAY. FORCED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIVE NE THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS...THE TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN
LARGELY BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOWS.
AS SUCH...INSERTED VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE MORNING...WITH
CONVECTION ENDING BY MID EVENING. VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL SITES VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PER REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. INSERTED VCSH AT THE COASTAL SITES THIS MORNING EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS...THOUGH MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY VS YESTERDAY. FORCED BY DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND A SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO DIVE NE THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS...THE TIMING/PLACEMENT WILL NEVERTHELESS BE DRIVEN
LARGELY BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOWS.
AS SUCH...INSERTED VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE MORNING...WITH
CONVECTION ENDING BY MID EVENING. VFR TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041146
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS AND WEATHER WITH START OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

.SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  60  30  30  20
MLU  86  72  88  73 /  60  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  40  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  60  30  60  30
ELD  85  71  87  73 /  80  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ004-006.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041003
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SE ACRS
KS/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WEAKENING THE BROAD AREA OF RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN CONUS ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH PW PER REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND STLT BLENDED TPW NEAR 1.8
INCHES.

SFC MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AS IT STRETCHES FM OK EAST ACRS KY TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WEST ACRS
THE GULF COAST WITH SLY WINDS MAINTAINING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC FRONT AND APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WAS PRODUCING A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS SE OK INTO SRN
ARK THIS MORNING WHILE CLOSER TO HOME WIDELY SCTD NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND STREAMING NE
INTO COASTAL LA/SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTION EXPECTED TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
DIGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY ACRS OK AND ARK...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THAT AREA WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE LAKES REGION AND CNTL LA LATER
TODAY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
ALLOW ACTIVITY TO BECOME SCTD OVER INLAND AREAS AS DAYTIME
HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTN...EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE ACRS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
CNTL LA AS SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINES
WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING BENEATH THE COOLER
AIR ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING ONCE HEATING
CEASES...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD LINGER INTO LATE
EVENING. RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER WEST.

THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY
MONDAY...REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER RAIN CHCS...WITH ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS BEING ISLTD
AT BEST. MEANWHILE...SFC PATTERN ACRS THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATUS QUO AS THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDS WEST ACRS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS.
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP COOL THINGS OFF...AFTN HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.MARINE...
A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGES WEST ACRS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING
SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHCS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOW SIDE AS UPR LVL RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THIS WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  74  90  73 /  60  30  40  10
LCH  88  77  89  77 /  40  20  20  10
LFT  88  75  90  75 /  40  20  30  10
BPT  90  78  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OK/AR/TN WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
BECOME DEFUSE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
LOCATED IN AR TODAY AT 18Z AND ON THE TN/KY LINE AT 18Z SUN. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF 1000-500MB RH VALUES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PW AT 00Z SOUNDING WAS 1.78 IN WITH AN LI
AROUND -9. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED OR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
HOWEVER PLENTY OF PARCEL INSTABILITY. HRRR PROGS SOME SHRA
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AROUND 15Z BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS A MRGL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AS THE AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ANY INTERACTION WITH SEA AND
LAKE BREEZES PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE
TSRA ACTIVITY RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING... STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS WHICH REACH
SEVERE CRITERIA WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON FOURTH OF JULY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM HOWEVER COOLER
NEAR AREAS OF RAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH TX/OK BORDER WILL
BUILD BY MID WEEK. A FEW IMPULSES WILL BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO
THE AREA HOWEVER POPS WILL BE WILL LOW. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
WEST ACROSS THE GULF NEXT WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT OUTSIDE OF
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
COME WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH TOWERING
CUMULUS BEING NOTED AT ALL SITES. SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE BEING MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. TS DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREAD OVER BTR AND MCB
SITES INITIALLY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHSHORE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING
FOR COASTAL MISS. TS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND
SHOULD AFFECT ALL SITES BEFORE THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AS WELL AS ALONG
A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE
TIDAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL OF THESE MAY BE
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE LATE TODAY. THE AMOUNT OF MARINE TRAFFIC WILL
BE HIGHER THAN USUAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...PLEASE BE ALERT FOR ANY
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  88  72 /  60  60  60  20
BTR  89  74  90  74 /  60  60  50  10
ASD  90  74  89  74 /  60  60  50  20
MSY  89  77  89  76 /  60  60  50  10
GPT  88  76  87  75 /  50  50  50  30
PQL  89  74  88  74 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AROUND DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER 05/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 040435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE TNITE WITH A FEW
SHOWERS PER LATEST HRRR MOVING IN FROM THE GULF INTO BPT AND LCH
BEFORE MORNING. WILL GO WITH LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED VCTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ON THE 4TH AS THE UPPER TROF BRINGS IN A COOL POOL ALOFT
AND ALLOWS CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED. SHOWERS SHOULD END
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND
THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040432
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1132 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL
BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPO GROUPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN EACH OF THE TAFS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD TO
REFLECT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 040325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWRD INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SOUTH...ONE
LONE TSTM IS MOVING ACROSS SHV ATTM BUT OTHERWISE ALL IS QUIET
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
SWRD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO BUT DID
UPDATE DEW POINTS AND QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 040255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
955 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLIER TO OUR
NORTH HAS MOSTLY FIZZLED OUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RADARS
DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO POP UP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
SOMETHING OF NOTE THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LATEST HIGH RES RUN
DEPICTS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
SWRN ZONES BEFORE SPREADING NEWD OVERNIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE WHAT
IT`S PICKING UP ON ATTM TO PRODUCE SUCH PRECIP SO HAVE ELECTED TO
IGNORE IT FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE TWEAKS TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WERE
MINOR AT MOST...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 040126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES OBSERVED IN THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING COMPARED TO 12 AND
24 HOURS AGO. PRECIP WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND
INSTABILITY VALUES HIGH AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE SUBSIDENCE KEEPING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT
OFFSHORE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEST/SW IN THE LOWER 500MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE FINAL
EXPIRATION OF THE FLIGHT OCCURRED AT 6.08 MB WHICH IS OVER 34K
METERS.

MEFFER
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL TROF ON SATURDAY WITH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 4TH.
MEANWHILE MVFR AROUND LATE TNITE OR BY DAYBREAK BPT AND LCH AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE MORNING VFR BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TS AND MVFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH 04/04Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND
THEN RETURNING AROUND 04/09Z ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LFK. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AND MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05



000
FXUS64 KLIX 032125
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 032125
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 90S AS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
ABSENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY REMAINED TO
THE NORTH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS HAS TRIGGERED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SINK SOUTHWARD. A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD BE A LITTLE BIT MORE SHARP AND SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AS THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT OVERLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THE SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE. THE TRIGGERS WILL BE THE
SHORTWAVE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND SEA BREEZES AND LAKE
BREEZES SO THERE WILL BE A LOT OF INGREDIENTS LAYING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING
OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED PLEASE STAY AWARE OF THE FORECAST
AND AWARE OF THE STORMS THAT COULD BE IN THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE MENTION OF
REMOVING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK DID NOT
COMPLETELY HAPPEN BUT I HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM TUESDAY
ON TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A BLENDED
APPROACH FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS IN THE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SCT CUMULUS DECK WILL DISSIPATED AROUND 23Z THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IF ANY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY MENTION
PROB30 TS FOR GPT AND MCB FOR NOW. 18

&&

.MARINE...
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. SQUALL LINE GENERATION FROM FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY BRING A THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS ONTO THE TIDAL LAKES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  87  72  89 /  20  60  60  60
BTR  75  90  75  91 /  10  60  60  50
ASD  76  90  75  89 /  10  60  60  50
MSY  78  90  77  90 /  10  60  60  50
GPT  78  89  77  88 /  10  50  50  50
PQL  76  89  76  89 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 032024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH LOUISIANA COULD MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND COULD REACH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES ARE 90 OR ABOVE REGION-WIDE...EXCEPT AT THE COAST
WHERE IT IS IN THE MID 80S.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...PER
SPC...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE REGION...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PRIMARY THREATS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

MOST OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SATURDAY EVENING...SO INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES AFTER
SUNSET LOOK TO BE GOOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE EAST...SO THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE HIGHEST IN ACADIANA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY...A DRY PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP FOR THE WORK-WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION...AND THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AS WELL...EXPECTING
MID 90S TO PREVAIL IN EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THAT WILL
SET UP MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 F RANGE...JUST BELOW THE
THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  90  74  91 /  20  60  20  40
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
LFT  77  89  76  90 /  10  40  20  40
BPT  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 032014
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INITIAL MCS THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH HAS SCATTERED OUT....AND HAS
YET TO REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AR...WHICH MAY AFFECT
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTN WHERE MOISTURE WAS DEEPER AT 12Z LZK
SOUNDING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUITE DIFFUSE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS SO LESS CONFIDENT OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER SAME
AREA AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. STILL...WITH JUICY PCPN WATER VALUES
JUST EDGING ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAKENING MID LVL CAPS...WILL SEE
MOSTLY CHANCE CATEGORY POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
LIKELY POPS NORTH WITH EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. POPS TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY FROM THE WEST AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
AREA FROM TX. CLOUD COOLED TEMPS AT SOME LOCATIONS WILL WARM WELL
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LITTLE
TO NO POPS AND BUILDING RIDGING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
THIS MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS...ACROSS N
TX/SE OK INTO S AR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE GO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS GETTING IN ON THE ACTION
FIRST WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TREND TO THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTN/EVNG FOR THE I-20 TERMINALS. THIS SOUTHWARD TREND HAS GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODELS AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
OUTPUT.

EXPECT LIMITED VSBYS AND BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS WITH THE
CONVECTION NOT TO MENTION VARIABLE STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY VCTS MENTION AFTER THE 03-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AN HOUR OR TWO
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE ON SAT THE 4TH. IF TRENDS SUPPORT TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...THEN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED WITH
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  74  91 /  40  40  30  30
MLU  75  87  73  89 /  60  60  50  40
DEQ  71  86  71  86 /  60  60  30  40
TXK  73  87  72  88 /  60  60  30  40
ELD  73  86  72  87 /  60  60  50  40
TYR  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
GGG  75  90  74  91 /  40  40  20  20
LFK  76  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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