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000
FXUS64 KSHV 250459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TERMINALS
ATTM...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE 06Z TAF
PD AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD...AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THIS
ASPECT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  40  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  40  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  40  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  40  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  40  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  40  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  40  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT MOST AREA TERMINALS
ATTM...BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE START OF THE 06Z TAF
PD AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PD...AS FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THIS
ASPECT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  40  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  40  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  40  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  40  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  40  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  40  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  40  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12


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000
FXUS64 KLIX 250456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
VFR TO MVFR WITH SOME TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CURRENT ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY IMPACT A FEW TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
VFR TO MVFR WITH SOME TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY...TOOK PATCHY FOG OUT FOR
THE EARLY AM HOURS. EXPECTING VCTS DURING THE DAY HOURS ON MONDAY
BEFORE QUIETING DOWN AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250235
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
935 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH SOUNDING THIS EVENING DESPITE A LOWER THAN NORMAL
ASCENSION RATE EARLY ON. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO LCL
AROUND 2900 FT...PSEUDO TO 500 MB WHERE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS NOTED THEN PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 133 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURES OF -75.8C. AN INVERTED-V MOISTURE PROFILE SURFACE TO
3200FT...THEN MODERATELY MOIST TO 9400FT/710 MB...DRY LAYER TO
623MB...THEN SATURATED CLOUD DECK NEAR FREEZING LEVEL OF
14.1KFT/600 MB...DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. WINDS ARE VEERING SE
THROUGH S 15-35KT FROM SURFACE UP TO 20KFT...THEN SW 25-30KT TO
33KFT...A LAYER OF WEST 10-25KT TO 37KFT...THEN SW 25-40KT ABOVE.
PEAK WIND 219/38KT AT 49.3KFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS 156
M2/S2...LIFTED INDEX -5 WITH A CAPE OF 2390 AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
1.57". BALLOON BURST IN PEARL RIVER COUNTY ON BLACKWELL ROAD OFF
HIGHWAY 11 NORTH OF MCNEILL AT AN ALTITUDE OF 20.9 MILES UP AND
DOWNRANGE ABOUT THE SAME DISTANCE. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 250154
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STORM COMPLEX MOVING MOVING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH RAIN
SHIELD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SE TX AND
SW LA HAS BECOME STABLED. MORE RAINS/TSTMS XPCD FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENT ZONES LOOK FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  30  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250138
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  40  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  40  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  40  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  40  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  40  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  40  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  40  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 250138
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  40  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  40  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  40  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  40  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  40  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  40  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  40  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 250138
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
838 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS FEELING THE EFFECT OF MID ATMOSPHERIC DRY SLOTTING
AND THIS IS PROBABLY BEST OBSERVED ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR HAVING WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT AND ABOVE THE 5KFT LEVEL. THIS IS TO BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WHICH
SWUNG THROUGH OUR REGION EARLIER. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL WE
ANTICIPATED TODAY DID NOT MATERIALIZE...ITS IMPORTANT THAT WE NOT
LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMING TO OUR REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HRRR NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AND WHILE OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SOUTHWEST...NOT SEEING
ANYTHING IN THIS FLOW TO TRIGGER MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT AT BEST. CURRENT TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE TO FCST MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND WHILE THE CLEARING LINE ON IR IMAGERY THIS
EVENING IS RAPIDLY MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE WEST...SHOULD SEE THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH MORE.

ALL OTHER GRIDS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  40  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  40  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  40  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  40  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  40  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  40  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  40  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 250133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR BATON ROUGE
SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. TORNADO WATCH 204 WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 ALONG AND EAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE. CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY JUST RECEIVE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE SENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED BEFORE 10 PM.
22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 242354
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS AREA TERMINALS ATTM...BUT THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY NOT LAST LONG. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION 03-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AREAL COVERAGE HAVE CHOSEN TO
ONLY INCLUDE VCTS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS 8-12 KTS THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGHT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT JUST
ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED PRODUCE
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE A
BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO LATE MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR STATE REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND
OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO
FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING
DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR SATURATION AND HIGH
WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE
TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A
CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT
INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ATTM...BUT WATCHING KLFT AND KARA
FOR MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AS RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  50  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  70  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 242201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUSIAIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT
JUST ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
TEXAS AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO
AFFECT PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR
STATE REION INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFLL...WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR
SATURATION AND HIGH WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE
DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA
COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 242201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCHES NUMBER 202 AND 204 FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION WITH ONLY ONE STORM LEFT IN CALDWELL PARISH THAT
WOULD POSE A THREAT TO BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUSIAIANA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING BAND THAT BROUGH
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
AND WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE WE HAD RAIN AT
JUST ABOUT ALL SITES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT HELPED
PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST BUT ON ITS HEELS ANOTHER ONE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REMAINING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM RAIN...BUT ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL BECOME NEGATIVE TILTED...SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
TEXAS AND INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION...AND PRODUCE THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE LOOK TO DEVELOP AND START TO
AFFECT PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR MID DAY TO
LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FOUR
STATE REION INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFLL...WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS BAND OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT
WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL
OF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING...SINCE GROUNDS WILL STILL BE NEAR
SATURATION AND HIGH WATER IN ALL RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LAKES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY FOR THE
DEEP EAST TEXAS LAKES AREA AND ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND
INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AFFECTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES
MOVING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA
COAST AND THEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS ALONG THE WESTERN
COAST. THROUGH THE LATE WEEK A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SHIFT OUT INTO THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROLONG THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  90  40
MLU  70  83  70  83 /  70  70  90  80
DEQ  69  79  66  83 /  70  70  90  30
TXK  69  81  67  84 /  70  70  90  40
ELD  69  83  68  84 /  70  70  90  80
TYR  71  81  68  85 /  70  80  90  30
GGG  71  82  68  85 /  70  70  90  30
LFK  72  83  70  86 /  70  70  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 242133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MCS THAT DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...AND IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER LOWER ACADIANA...ALTHOUGH THIS AREA CAN PROBABLY HANDLE THE
RAINFALL BETTER THAN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A SEVERE STORM IN THAT AREA AHEAD
OF THE MAIN BAND...MAINLY FROM A QUICK SPIN UP OR WIND DAMAGE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS OUT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THAT AREA...BUT MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

AIR MASS BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS STABILIZED...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS ROBUST WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY AND ALSO REMOVED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION ON MONDAY
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL VERY HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH EFFICIENT HIGH RAINFALL RATE STORMS POSSIBLE. SO THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT ON MONDAY AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE KEPT GROUNDS WET AND HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS.
ALSO...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY...ENOUGH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...THAT AGAIN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THE MAIN HAZARDS OTHER THAN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SO
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...THE MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
COAST BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  83  69  83 /  60  70  70  60
LCH  73  85  73  85 /  40  60  60  60
LFT  72  85  72  84 /  60  60  60  60
BPT  74  84  73  85 /  40  60  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KLIX 242118
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF A SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DECENT INSTABILITY FROM THE
HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN A SHORT LIVED TORNADO. THE AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. ALREADY...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS INCLUDING A 57 MPH WIND
GUST IN BILOXI.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEN MOVE INTO THE NEW ORLEANS
METRO AREA/SLIDELL AROUND 7PM OR SO. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BETWEEN 8 AND 9PM AT THE
CURRENT SPEED. THAT SAID...THE LINE HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS
TIME DURING THE DAY TODAY.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES
ARE STILL CERTAINLY THERE.

MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...

WITH THE FOCUS ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND THE TORNADO WATCH...
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE PATTERN OF DISTURBANCES
ROLLING IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL
KEEP THE GULF MOISTURE FLOWING.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING OCCASIONAL MVFR DUE TO
LOW CLOUDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNWARD TREND WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN LOSING DEFINITION OVER
THE LAST COUPLE HOURS AS IT OUTRUNS THE MCV THAT GENERATED IT.

MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY 03Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN. TOMORROW MAY BE
CLOSE TO A REPLAY OF TODAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE
RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE UP AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF LOWER WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  70  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  70  60  60  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  70  60  50  70
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  70  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  70  70  50  70
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241915
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241915
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241915
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241915
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE HEADLINES FOR TORNADO WATCH 204
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 01Z/8PM CDT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THE LINE OF STORMS NOW MOVING
INTO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA A FEW QUICK SPIN UPS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. FULL FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT IN A FEW HOURS.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  83  70  82 /  60  70  50  70
BTR  70  84  72  84 /  60  70  50  70
ASD  72  82  71  82 /  60  70  40  60
MSY  72  83  74  84 /  60  70  50  70
GPT  72  81  73  82 /  60  70  40  60
PQL  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241902
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 ISSUED
BY SPC UNTIL 8 PM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHEAR IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER MCS. SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR IN THE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  60  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  60  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  60  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241902
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 ISSUED
BY SPC UNTIL 8 PM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
AND SHEAR IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
EARLIER MCS. SOME ROTATION MAY OCCUR IN THE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS BAND...THEN ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  60  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  60  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  60  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  60  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241801
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69  85 /  90  60  70  80  40
MLU  86  70  82  70  84 /  90  80  70  80  70
DEQ  78  68  79  67  83 /  90  60  70  80  30
TXK  81  69  82  68  84 /  90  60  70  80  40
ELD  83  69  82  68  84 /  90  80  70  80  60
TYR  79  71  83  69  85 /  60  40  80  80  30
GGG  79  71  83  69  85 /  70  40  70  80  30
LFK  81  73  83  70  85 /  60  50  70  80  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241801
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69  85 /  90  60  70  80  40
MLU  86  70  82  70  84 /  90  80  70  80  70
DEQ  78  68  79  67  83 /  90  60  70  80  30
TXK  81  69  82  68  84 /  90  60  70  80  40
ELD  83  69  82  68  84 /  90  80  70  80  60
TYR  79  71  83  69  85 /  60  40  80  80  30
GGG  79  71  83  69  85 /  70  40  70  80  30
LFK  81  73  83  70  85 /  60  50  70  80  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
LINE OF NORTH/SOUTH THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO AEX AREA OF
OPERATIONS IN THE NEXT HOUR FOLLOWED BY LFT AND ARA. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CLOUD
TO CLOUD LIGHTNING. AVIATION INTEREST SHOULD BE AWARE OF LOWER
CEILING NEAR STORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. CONDS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE OVER SE TX AS
THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241656
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BEFORE WE REACH THE NOON HOUR. MCS IS
PLUGGING ALONG SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH MAIN BAND ALONG THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY AND NEARING THE GREATER LAKE CHARLES AREA...JUST A
TAD FASTER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR WAS SHOWING. ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE NOW...REDUCING THE RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE NEAR TERM OVER THAT AREA...WITH
MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM EAST OF THE SABINE
RIVER TO ROUGHLY JUST WEST OF ALEXANDRIA TO JENNINGS. THIS IS ALSO
ROUGHLY THE AREA THAT WPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...AND THE AREA THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. TIDE
LEVELS ALSO ALONG THE COAST ARE RUNNING A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND NEARING 3 FEET MLLW AT THE CALCASIEU PASS GAUGE. AGAIN
THESE HIGHER TIDES COULD CAUSE BACK-UPS FOR BAYOUS THAT WOULD
NORMALLY DRAIN INTO SYSTEMS THAT GO INTO THE GULF...AND ALLOW
FLOODING TO OCCUR MORE EASILY.

ALSO...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOTED BY SPC ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. DECENT HEATING TAKING PLACE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET WITH JUST
ENOUGH SHEAR THAT POCKETS ALONG THE MAIN BAND OR ISOLATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE BAND COULD TEND TO ROTATE WITH A CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  70  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  50  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 / 100  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241652
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241652
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241652
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241523
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241523
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241523
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241523
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
NOCTURNAL MCS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING TO SLOW UP AND
THIS IS RAISING CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS REALLY GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST TO HELP FEED AND FOCUS CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENT OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS RICH WITH MOISTURE WITH PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH OVER 90 PERCENT. THEREFORE...THESE
STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TIDE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST ARE
ALSO RUNNING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WHICH
WILL HELP KEEP THE BAYOUS AND CREEKS FROM PROPERLY DRAINING. WILL
BE MONITORING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD
ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BEFORE THE MORNING IS UP.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH HRRR SHOWING THIS
BAND REACHING SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AROUND 18Z. ALTHOUGH DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
DURING THE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR AND SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE TRENDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  82  70  83 /  80  70  70  70
LCH  73  84  73  85 /  80  60  70  70
LFT  73  84  73  85 /  80  70  60  70
BPT  74  83  74  85 /  80  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLIX 241340
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 241340
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
840 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

MORNING SOUNDING INDICATING PW AT 1.40IN WITH MOIST LAYERS AT THE
SFC TO 6KT AND FROM 20 TO 30KT. WIND PROFILE SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SFC TO 45KT. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 81 ALREADY
EXCEEDED AT 8AM SO CU FIELD DEVELOPING RAPIDLY. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE SOUNDING WHEN IT COMES TO
LIFTING A PARCEL WITH A CAPE OF 723J/KG AND LI AROUND MINUS 5.
SFC TO 1KM SHEAR CALCULATION WAS 31KT WITH A BRN SHEAR AT 11M2/S2.
PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HOWEVER WIDESPREAD SVR
WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. BALLOON BURST AT 111995FT ABOVE BURGETOWN ROAD JUST
WEST OF HWY 11 IN CARRIERE MS. /KEG/

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18

DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS SEEN WORKING
ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR MOST SITES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL VFR PERIODS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WRAPS
UP FROM SW TO NE ALONG A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO
THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AS STRONG S/SE WINDS
DROP OFF SOMEWHAT AFTER 25/00Z...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SITES.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241209
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 24/12Z TAFS...IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SLOWLY TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION IS SEEN WORKING
ACROSS CNTRL AND SOUTH TX ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR TERMINALS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE
UPPER TROF LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL KEEP CIGS IN
THE MVFR RANGE FOR MOST SITES WITH SOME OCCASIONAL VFR PERIODS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WRAPS
UP FROM SW TO NE ALONG A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING INTO
THE REGION. CIGS WILL LIKELY FALL FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG AS STRONG S/SE WINDS
DROP OFF SOMEWHAT AFTER 25/00Z...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SITES.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 241209
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
709 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MCV CROSSING METRO
HOUSTON ATTM. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GET INTO KBPT TOWARD 15Z AND
KLCH 17Z. HRRR SHOWS THIS LINE BREAKING UP AFTER IT PASSES KLCH SO
HAVE ELECTED FOR NOW TO NOT CARRY PREVAILING PRECIP FOR REMAINING
SITES. OTHERWISE PRIMARY ISSUE REMAINS STRONG SRLY WINDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THANKS TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION...AS WELL AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

..FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.

MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 241031
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MCS
OVER CNTRL AND SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH A SECOND SYSTEM FARTHER N
ACROSS N TX/SRN AND ERN OK ALONG AND N OF A WELL-DEFINED MCV THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AND SHIFTED TO THE RED RIVER OF SRN OK. THESE ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WELL-DEFINED AND AMPLIFED SHORTWAVE NOTED
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING ENE ACROSS NM...S OF THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST
AIR MASS HAS SPREAD BACK N INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL HELP FUEL CONVECTION AS IT
INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING OVER SE OK/E TX WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE ONCE IT ENTERS WCNTRL TX. HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SEE
LOW STRATUS DEVELOP/ADVECT N ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD SHIELD MAY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER N LA/SW AR ALLOWING FOR BNDRY LYR HEATING
TO OCCUR...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST CAPE. STRONG
MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ATOP THIS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
SHOULD HELP INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING ARRIVES LATER TODAY...WITH A DEEPENING WARM LAYER AND PW/S
OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE NOT AGGRESSIVE AT ALL WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND FEEL THEY ARE UNDERDONE...AND AM
EXPECTING TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT AREAWIDE...FALLING
ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FELL EARLIER
THIS PAST WEEK.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE UNION COUNTY
AR AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF NCNTRL LA...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM W TO E THIS EVENING AS DRY
SLOTTING ALOFT RAPIDLY ENTRAINS NEWD BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION TODAY/THIS EVENING
WHERE BETTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE TONIGHT...BUT ROUND TWO WILL SET UP MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE
SRN CA COAST...QUICKLY SLIDES E ACROSS THE DESERT SW INTO NRN OLD
MX S OF THE ROCKIES CLOSED LOW...BEFORE LIFTING ENE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BECOME
NEGATIVE TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING...WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER HEATING OVER
MORE OF THE REGION MONDAY...RESULTING AGAIN IN MODERATE CAPES
DEVELOPING ONCE DEEP LYR SHEAR/STRONG FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE W.
THUS...A SVR THREAT MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT LOADS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH QPF/S OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST SYSTEM TODAY LOOKS TO ONLY PRIME THE REGION FOR WHAT COULD
BE A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THUS THE REASON WHY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AGAIN SPREADS QUICKLY ENE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS FROM W TO E TUESDAY...WITH FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. DID KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNAL
IN NATURE. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO
AS WELL...PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERAL CONCENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SW BY THURSDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED MID CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THANKS WFO/S LZK AND LCH FOR COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  60  80  70  80
DEQ  76  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  70  80  70  80
TYR  78  71  83  69 /  90  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  90  40  70  80
LFK  79  73  83  70 /  90  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 240945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR AREA IS
APPROACHING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE LARGER WEST U.S. TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY OVER TX STORMS ARE STRETCHED FROM BROWNSVILLE
TO DFW. THE PORTION OF WX THAT CONCERNS SE TX AND LA IS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX COAST AND WILL ARRIVE ROUGHLY AT 9 AM TO
JEFFERSON, HARDIN, AND TYLER COUNTIES. ALREADY SATURATED GROUND,
HIGH RAINFALL RATES, AND POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SE TX, SW AND CENTRAL LA
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRETCH IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS AND HIGHER AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
QPF REMAINING JUST WEST OF LOWER ACADIANA THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED
TO THAT AREA, HOWEVER ANY TRAINING STORM, IF IT DOES OCCUR, WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TX ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CA IS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN HIGH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DURING
TUESDAY THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. A
SLIGHT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS WILL OCCUR ALOFT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST.

ALSO DURING THE PERIOD OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY... WHILE FLOODING
WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT OF THIS EVENT, THERE IS A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LIMITED,
HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINES OF STORMS
MOVE THROUGH.

MAINLY SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WED AND THU
EVEN AS MODEST RIDGING OCCURS. THE MODEST RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN AGAIN BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER, YET
WEAKER, UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WESTERN STATES INTO THE
PLAINS.



&&

.MARINE...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH NEAR SCA CRITERIA WINDS OCCURRING. THE
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
PLAINS LIFTS NE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF A STRONG STORM APPROACHES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  70  82  70 /  80  80  70  70
LCH  83  73  84  73 /  80  80  60  70
LFT  85  73  84  73 /  60  80  70  60
BPT  80  74  83  74 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18


&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 240941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18


&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 240941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18


&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 240941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18


&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 240941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DEEP 1005MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHEAST
FLOW WAS PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MISSOURI AND OVER MID AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEWPOINT READINGS OF 70 DEGREES WAS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ANTI-
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS
PRESENT FROM TEXAS TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 18


&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE
AXIS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST FROM ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
AND NORTHWEST GULF. MID LAYER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE MOISTURE AXIS. SURFACE HEATING WILL CREATE LL INSTABILITY.
ERGO...LOOKING FOR CONVECTION TO TRACK ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ERGO...WILL CARRY
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AXIS
WILL REMAIN IN PLAY MONDAY SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG
STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TROUGH
WILL LIFT AS ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS GFS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY DRY AIR TRACKING TO THE AREA FROM
FLORIDA AND EURO SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE NEXT
SUNDAY. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR WITH A FEW OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO EITHER
FEW/SCT LOWER CLOUD DECKS OR LIGHT FOG. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY MORE FOG
AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF KHUM AT THIS
TIME BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE A LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN WITH LOW VIS
FROM HEAVY RAIN.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU MIDWEEK.
SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER WESTERN
TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. THE RESULT
OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE
WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  84  71 /  50  60  70  50
BTR  87  72  84  72 /  60  60  70  50
ASD  87  72  83  73 /  30  60  70  40
MSY  87  75  85  75 /  50  60  70  50
GPT  85  74  82  75 /  30  60  70  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  30  50  70  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240504
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS
CONVECTION BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 12 AND 18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP
WITH IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS ENDING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE
PROFILE CONDS TO DEEPEN. LOOKING FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT TMRW
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT AS STORMS IN CNTRL
TX MOV EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 240259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
STORMS ENDING OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE
PROFILE CONDS TO DEEPEN. LOOKING FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT TMRW
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT AS STORMS IN CNTRL
TX MOV EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

..SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
908 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREDIBLE RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
HELPING TO DRIVE THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THIS REGION. 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOWING A NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THIS EVENING AND WITH STRONG DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A NEARLY 100KT UPPER
LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY...YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY FOR AN EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN FACT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT...I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THE FLOODING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OR INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER BASIN...
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAINFALL IS NOT NEEDED.

THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THIS PRECIPITATION BEGIN
TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO OUR REGION. LATEST OOZ WRF AND
ACCOMPANYING HRRR ARE WANTING TO KEEP A BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF OUR REGION UNTIL 12Z WHEN THEY FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING SOME
SORT OF LINEAR CONVECTION INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT THE
COLD POOL THAT WAS GENERATED EARLIER WITH THE CENTRAL OK CONVECTION
HAS ALL BUT STALLED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY HAVING MET UP WITH
IT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...THIS LATER SCENARIO SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE.

OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINS AT 4 AM AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH
GOING ON ACROSS OUR REGION AT THAT TIME...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
HOWEVER AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS IS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE
WATCH AND THE OVERNIGHT POP FORECAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IS
WIDESPREAD AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP FROM
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
FALL TOO MUCH MORE BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SOONER
THAN EXPECTED RAINFALL. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CURRENT MIN FCST AS
IS.

NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  30  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  75  86  72  85 /  20  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  20  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXASAND
INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN THAT WILL BE
SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT ALL WATER
STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE FLOODING
ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED WILL WASH OUT
MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL
TAIL DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 240054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LULL OVERNIGHT...BUT INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BRING LOW CIGS BACK TO AREA TERMINALS AFTER
06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PD...AS CONVECTION
BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SELY
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING SUNDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXASAND
INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE
LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN THAT WILL BE
SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT ALL WATER
STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE FLOODING
ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED WILL WASH OUT
MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL
TAIL DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 232127
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
427 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WERE
SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN
GULF NORTH INTO THE UPPER MID WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS
ONE LEAD WAVE BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SWINGS ACROSS TEXAAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY AFTERNOON SENDING THE FIRST MAJOR ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE HEELS OF THIS WAVE COMES THE NEXT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL ALONG
WITH THE LARGE AMOUNT FROM THE PREVIOUS WILL FALL ON THE BASIN
THAT WILL BE SATURATED PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MAKE SURE THAT
ALL WATER STORAGE WILL FILL TO CAPACITY. RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE
FLOODING ALONG WITH ROADS...STREETS...AND LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO HIGH WATER. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
WILL WASH OUT MANY ROADS AND CULVERTS AND MOTORISTS WILL WANT TO
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF VENTURING OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME RELEIF
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT BY NEXT FRIDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  81  69  81 /  40  80  80  80
MLU  70  85  70  81 /  30  60  80  70
DEQ  68  75  67  79 /  70  90  80  80
TXK  70  79  69  80 /  60  80  80  80
ELD  69  82  69  80 /  40  70  80  70
TYR  71  77  70  80 /  60  80  70  80
GGG  71  79  70  81 /  50  80  70  80
LFK  73  79  72  81 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 232042
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 232042
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING STILL EXISTS
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MOISTURE...SO HAS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CONDITIONS STILL SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR WHAT NORMALLY
WOULD BE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS IT BUMPS
UP AGAINST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING DEEP MOIST FEED WITH DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL FORM
OVER THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWN
POURS IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A SHORT WAVE
MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS BAND
TO WORK WITH...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2
INCHES...TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION...AND MEAN RH OVER 80
PERCENT. SO VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING AS ACTIVITY
RAINS ITSELF OUT. HOWEVER...AS WHAT NORMALLY HAPPENS WITH UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS...NOCTURNAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE BY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS (WET
GROUNDS...HIGH HYDROLOGIC FLOWS)...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. CURRENT QPF
PROJECTIONS SHOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD
(SUNDAY INTO MONDAY) IN THE WATCH AREA FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
BURSTS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT EXPAND THE WATCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
AS THE PATTERN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY SWITCH TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND PULL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TAKING WITH IT THE VERY HIGH MOISTURE
ENVIRONMENT...ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ALONG WITH
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO CALL FOR DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST RIDGES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS TONIGHT MAY NEAR 20 KNOTS
AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE TIME...SO WILL KEEP JUST SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION GOING.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1
NM...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  83  69  81 /  30  70  70  70
LCH  74  83  72  83 /  30  70  80  70
LFT  73  85  72  84 /  30  60  60  70
BPT  76  82  73  84 /  30  80  80  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO



000
FXUS64 KLIX 232034
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

.LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  84  70  82 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  72  85  70  84 /  40  60  70  70
ASD  72  85  72  83 /  20  50  60  70
MSY  76  86  72  85 /  30  50  60  70
GPT  75  83  72  83 /  10  40  60  70
PQL  72  84  72  83 /  10  30  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...35
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231805
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
105 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NOW WITH SCAT SHWRS OVER TOLEDO BEND. SOME AMENDMENTS FOR THE
AFTN WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR AT A FEW
SITES. OTHERWISE...THE SFC WINDS ARE SE LESS THAN 10KTS AND VEER
TO DUE SOUTH BY 5KFT AND SW/W THROUGH THE MID LEVELS MAXING OUT
LESS THAN 50KTS FOR THE ARKLATEX AERODROME. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH
IS EDGING ACROSS E NM WITH NUM TSTMS OVER KN/OK THAT WILL TAIL
DOWN ACROSS THE RED INTO N TX THIS CYCLE. OUTLOOK IS FOR
INCREASING ARKLATEX TSTM COVERAGE AND MVFR/IFR BEYOND THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KLIX 231717
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...PROVIDING
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AROUND FL035. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST THREAT AT KHUM AND KBTR WHERE VCTS
WILL BE CARRIED FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT
MORE LIKELY AS CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. NO MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING...BUT 00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED
A MENTION AT SOME OR MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH THIS MORNING BURSTING AROUND BUD
ROAD JUST WEST OF STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KHSA) AT 93563FT.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AS THE PW VALUE INCREASED TO 1.65 INCHES.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS MEASURED AT 14120FT. NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW BY 4900FT PEAKING OUT AT 50KT AT
37000FT. SHOULD REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 82F TODAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WONT HAVE MUCH INHIBITION SO A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN WONT BE SURPRISING BUT COVERAGE WONT BE MUCH. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  30  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  30  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  40  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  20  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 231717
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...PROVIDING
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AROUND FL035. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST THREAT AT KHUM AND KBTR WHERE VCTS
WILL BE CARRIED FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD
BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT
MORE LIKELY AS CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. NO MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING...BUT 00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED
A MENTION AT SOME OR MOST TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH THIS MORNING BURSTING AROUND BUD
ROAD JUST WEST OF STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KHSA) AT 93563FT.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AS THE PW VALUE INCREASED TO 1.65 INCHES.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS MEASURED AT 14120FT. NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW BY 4900FT PEAKING OUT AT 50KT AT
37000FT. SHOULD REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 82F TODAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WONT HAVE MUCH INHIBITION SO A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN WONT BE SURPRISING BUT COVERAGE WONT BE MUCH. /KEG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  30  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  30  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  40  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  20  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231650
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...NO CAP AND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CARRYING TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER AT ALL
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...WHILE SUNDAY
LOOKING INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT UPPER TROF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  20  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  30  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  20  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231625
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BUMPED UP THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ALSO MADE MINOR
CHANGES THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SAME AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231521
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...IS MAKING A MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST MOISTURE IN
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS VERIFYING THIS WITH A GOOD CU FIELD
BUILDING IN THIS AREA...AND RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW BLIPS
AND FIRST SIGNS OF CONVECTION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SURGE TO THE NORTH...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY...THEN INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WILL
ALSO NEED TO UPDATE THE FFA PRODUCT BEFORE NOON. WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THAT PRODUCT AT THIS TIME...WITH AREA COVERAGE AND
TIMING THE SAME...THUS HAZARD DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  40  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07



000
FXUS64 KLIX 231315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015



.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH THIS MORNING BURSTING AROUND BUD
ROAD JUST WEST OF STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KHSA) AT 93563FT.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AS THE PW VALUE INCREASED TO 1.65 INCHES.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS MEASURED AT 14120FT. NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW BY 4900FT PEAKING OUT AT 50KT AT
37000FT. SHOULD REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 82F TODAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WONT HAVE MUCH INHIBITION SO A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN WONT BE SURPRISING BUT COVERAGE WONT BE MUCH. /KEG/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 231315
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015



.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH THIS MORNING BURSTING AROUND BUD
ROAD JUST WEST OF STENNIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KHSA) AT 93563FT.
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AS THE PW VALUE INCREASED TO 1.65 INCHES.
FREEZING LEVEL WAS MEASURED AT 14120FT. NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE
GIVES WAY TO WESTERLY FLOW BY 4900FT PEAKING OUT AT 50KT AT
37000FT. SHOULD REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 82F TODAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT
DOES DEVELOP WONT HAVE MUCH INHIBITION SO A FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN WONT BE SURPRISING BUT COVERAGE WONT BE MUCH. /KEG/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS TO BEGIN THIS TAF
PERIOD AS SELY WINDS RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWRD ALONG AN
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT THESE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES EXCEPT ELD/MLU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVECT.
THIS AIR MASS WILL USHER IN SOME LIGHT SHWRS LATER TODAY...AND
THESE WILL MAINLY AFFECT OUR E TX TERMINALS BUT GRADUALLY WORK
FARTHER EAST TO SHV/TXK WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WE
SHIFT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BACK TO AT LEAST LOW VFR AT MOST SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE WITH MOIST
SOILS. SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A SELY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS LATER TODAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 231130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN STALLED OVERNIGHT FROM ROUGHLY WEST OF
KBPT TO JUST ALONG THE COAST...WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...AND OVER LAND IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLFT/KARA. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. ALSO...SOME MVFR CEILINGS
LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE ARRIVED AT KBPT...AND
THESE CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MVFR UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TODAY AS TROUGH OUT DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS...HELPING TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS...AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING NEAR KLCH AND KBPT...THEN
NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK OVER TAF SITES.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 231026
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
526 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL REMAINS QUIET THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT STILL RESIDING FROM CNTRL AND SE TX ALONG THE LA
COAST SHOULD QUICKLY MIX N/WASH OUT AS SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
TODAY. THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES FLAT UPPER RIDGING
FROM E TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS FEATURE
REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT E TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION DRIFTS NE INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES/WRN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SRLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY...ENHANCING THE SEABREEZE AS IT WORKS INLAND FROM THE S
LA/SE TX COASTS. CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW ONGOING FROM ERN
NM/NW TX AS WELL AS S TX SHOULD SHIFT NNE INTO CNTRL TX/OK BY
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS E INTO THESE AREAS AHEAD OF
THE CLOSED LOW. WHILE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLOODING EXPECTED TO REMAIN W
OF THE REGION. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CLIMB ANOTHER SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED FRIDAY...BACK TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH
AXIS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING W TX LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING SLOWLY SPREADING ENE ACROSS CNTRL TX INTO
CNTRL/ERN OK. SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SCT CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY NW
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF/S WAITING
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE
DEEP WARM LAYER AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ENHANCING CELL
TRAINING...FLASH FLOODING IS A GOOD BET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST
W OF THE REGION...BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO SE
OK/E TX AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STILL SATURATED GROUNDS IN
WAKE OF WIDESPREAD 4-8+ INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE OK/E TX/MUCH
OF SW AR AND NW LA FROM 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS DEPICT THE W TX SHORTWAVE AS RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS IT SHIFTS ENE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS A STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
RATES...DESPITE ITS STEADY ENE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS DO
TAPER QPF AMOUNTS OFF CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER NCNTRL LA
AS THIS TROUGH DAMPENS OUT/EXITS THE REGION TO THE NE. HOWEVER...THE
REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SCT
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT
SPREAD NE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OPENING LOW OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS TX/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN
LOADING UP WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THUS...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
AS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY PRIME THE ALREADY MOIST
SOIL CONDITIONS. MODEST HEATING WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS NEXT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN
ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES...EVEN FROM THE
SUB-SVR STORMS.

THE SVR/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E TUESDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A WSW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCT AND DIURNAL EACH DAY. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO
NEAR/ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  71  81  69 /  30  40  80  80
MLU  85  70  86  70 /  20  30  60  80
DEQ  78  68  74  67 /  40  60  90  80
TXK  82  70  79  69 /  30  50  80  80
ELD  84  69  82  69 /  20  40  70  80
TYR  82  71  77  70 /  40  50  80  70
GGG  83  71  79  70 /  40  40  80  70
LFK  84  73  79  71 /  40  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     LAZ001>004-010>012-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLIX 230941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 230941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 230941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 230941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE MAP REVEALED A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND A 1026MB HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SURFACE FLOW WAS MAINLY EASTERLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINT
READINGS HAVE REBOUNDED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE PLOTS SHOWED A MOISTURE SURGE TO
EASTERN KANSAS...1.5 INCHES TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA....1.75 INCHES
ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...RIDGE
AXIS FROM NORTHWEST GULF TO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND GENERALLY WEST
FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND LOWERED
THICKNESS LAYERS WILL INCREASE TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND END MOST WORDING OF A COLD FRONT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. HIGHER PW VALUES AND SURFACE INSTABILITY OVER WEST ZONES WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
BULK OF THE RAINFALL WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND OPEN GULF WILL YIELD
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND BRING A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF FORECAST
AREA. TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TO CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE NOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL TOO HIGH FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MINIMUM CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 3KFT. TERMINALS ALONG AND WEST OF A KNEW
TO KMCB LINE COULD BE IMPACTED BY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BRIEFLY DROP VIS/CIG TO MVFR OR IFR CATEGORIES. VFR WILL RETURN UPON
SUNSET WHEN CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WINDS THRU THE PERIOD WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE S TO SE AND AROUND 10 KNOTS.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST THRU
MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA OVER
WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT.
THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST WINDS IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. SO EXPECT TO SEE EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO RELAX A BIT.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  86  70 /  20  20  50  40
BTR  85  72  86  72 /  40  20  50  50
ASD  86  72  85  74 /  20  20  40  40
MSY  85  76  87  75 /  30  20  40  40
GPT  85  75  84  74 /  10  20  50  40
PQL  85  72  83  73 /  10  20  50  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 230935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 230935
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPS
ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH AROUND 80 SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY... A SLOW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS MORE TODAY,
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ALONG THE COAST WILL LIFT NORTH
RETURNING THE HIGH DEWPOINTS TO SE TX AND LA. FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAA TODAY, HOWEVER QPF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE... FLASH FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY... HOWEVER BY SUNDAY MORNING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY THE FIRST IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL MOVING INTO SE TX BEFORE NOON. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND OR OVER 2", NEAR LATE MAY DAILY RECORD VALUES,
WHILE A SHORT WAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHILE MULTI DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION LEADING TO A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.

WITH THE RAIN THAT HAS RECENTLY FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
INCOMING HEAVY RAIN, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SE
TX AND WEST LA STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND GOING THROUGH MON. THIS
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED EAST AND IN TIME AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN LA.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WED THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW STATES
FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF FLOODING AS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE EXITS EAST,
HOWEVER SCT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS STALLED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN SOME THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER A MODERATE SE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  85  70  83  69 /  40  40  70  80
LCH  84  74  84  71 /  40  40  60  80
LFT  85  72  85  72 /  50  30  50  70
BPT  85  76  83  73 /  40  30  80  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ027-030-041-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




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