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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS
SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. NE WINDS THIS MORNING FROM 5-10 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LGT/VRBL TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 02/00Z. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 1033MB HIGH IS TOO FAR NORTH IN N MO WITH STILL BREEZY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN OUR FOUR STATE AREA FOR MANY FREEZING READINGS IN
THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR IS COMING IN THE
BACK DOOR ANYWAY. WE STILL HAVEN/T BOTTOMED OUT...BUT IDABEL OK
AND DE QUEEN AR ARE AT FREEZING ADN FOR THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH
CALM WINDS. SO WE CAN CHECK THOSE SITES OFF THE FUTURE FREEZE
WARNING ISSUANCE FOR THIS FALL. SPEAKING OF WHICH...A NEW WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE OUACHITA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE DAYLIGHT STANDARD TIME FRAME OF 2 AM TO 8 AM
SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE FULLY EXPANDED OUT AND CENTERED
OVER KT/TN BY 12 TOMORROW. THE LOWER ELEVATION DELTA AREA WILL SEE
THE GREATEST CHILL TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A GOOD
AREAS OF FROST LIKELY FOR EVEN SOME MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN HALF. THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS
OF EVAPORATING AND FORMING DEW ALLOW FOR THAT NEEDED ADDITIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR...THUS ALLOWING DEW TO BECOME FROST ON THE
GROUND...SO A GOOD IDEA...IF NOT BETTER IDEA TO PROTECT PLANTS
ALMOST AREA WIDE. KEEP IN MIND OUR SENSOR ARE NOT ON THE
GROUND...BUT AT LEAST 2 METERS UP. IN ADDITION...THE AIR MASS WILL
BE MOISTENING FROM BELOW WITH GREEN EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND
SHADED AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST SOIL AND OUR MANY LAKES...RIVERS
AND BAYOUS DURING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG WARM UP IS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK AND AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT DRIFTS THE WET STUFF INTO
THE PICTURE FOR OUR ELECTION DAY. WE ARE STILL IN MUCH NEED
RAIN...BUT THE ANNUAL DEFICIT WILL GAIN GROUND WITH SOME ONE TO
THREE INCH TOTALS PER WPC 5 TO 7 DAY TOTAL INTO THE EARLY NOVEMBER
BUCKETS. THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LATE PERIOD WITH GFS DRY AND
EURO WET. OBVIOUSLY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS AND
SHOULD HAVE CLARITY IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR NOW MAV/MEX BLENDED
INTO THE LOW CONFIDENCE LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  34  66  43  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  56  31  63  40  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  58  29  63  37  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  56  33  63  42  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  56  29  62  38  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  62  35  69  50  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  61  33  67  44  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  63  33  68  47  77 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-014-021-022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 011109
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
609 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033MB HIGH IS TOO FAR NORTH IN N MO WITH STILL BREEZY SURFACE
CONDITIONS IN OUR FOUR STATE AREA FOR MANY FREEZING READINGS IN
THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR IS COMING IN THE
BACK DOOR ANYWAY. WE STILL HAVEN/T BOTTOMED OUT...BUT IDABEL OK
AND DE QUEEN AR ARE AT FREEZING ADN FOR THE LAST TWO HOURS WITH
CALM WINDS. SO WE CAN CHECK THOSE SITES OFF THE FUTURE FREEZE
WARNING ISSUANCE FOR THIS FALL. SPEAKING OF WHICH...A NEW WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAINLY THE OUACHITA AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FOR THE DAYLIGHT STANDARD TIME FRAME OF 2 AM TO 8 AM
SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE FULLY EXPANDED OUT AND CENTERED
OVER KT/TN BY 12 TOMORROW. THE LOWER ELEVATION DELTA AREA WILL SEE
THE GREATEST CHILL TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS WITH A GOOD
AREAS OF FROST LIKELY FOR EVEN SOME MID 30S WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN HALF. THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS
OF EVAPORATING AND FORMING DEW ALLOW FOR THAT NEEDED ADDITIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR...THUS ALLOWING DEW TO BECOME FROST ON THE
GROUND...SO A GOOD IDEA...IF NOT BETTER IDEA TO PROTECT PLANTS
ALMOST AREA WIDE. KEEP IN MIND OUR SENSOR ARE NOT ON THE
GROUND...BUT AT LEAST 2 METERS UP. IN ADDITION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOISTENING FROM BELOW WITH GREEN EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND SHADED
AND STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST SOIL AND OUR MANY LAKES...RIVERS AND
BAYOUS DURING TODAY AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE BIG WARM UP IS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK AND AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONT DRIFTS THE WET STUFF INTO
THE PICTURE FOR OUR ELECTION DAY. WE ARE STILL IN MUCH NEED
RAIN...BUT THE ANNUAL DEFICIT WILL GAIN GROUND WITH SOME ONE TO
THREE INCH TOTALS PER WPC 5 TO 7 DAY TOTAL INTO THE EARLY NOVEMBER
BUCKETS. THE MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LATE PERIOD WITH GFS DRY AND
EURO WET. OBVIOUSLY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS AND
SHOULD HAVE CLARITY IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR NOW MAV/MEX BLENDED
INTO THE LOW CONFIDENCE LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  34  66  43  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  56  31  63  40  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  58  29  63  37  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  56  33  63  42  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  56  29  62  38  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  62  35  69  50  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  61  33  67  44  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  63  33  68  47  77 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-014-021-022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

24





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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011104
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
604 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WITH AN EXTREMELY
DRY AIRMASS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA...ANTICIPATING ANOTHER DAY
ABSENT OF CLOUDS. VFR CONTINUES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN N-NE
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS...BECOMING LIGHT AND POSSIBLY
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWING THE
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH OF AEX DRIVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ATTM. TODAY...WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE BRISK.

THIS IS THE FIRST...BUT NOT THE LAST TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
WILL MAKE IT`S WAY INTO OUR REGION THIS FALL. UNDER SUNNY SKIES
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS CNTRL LA AND THE
LAKES REGION IN SE TX...LWR 60S ELSEWHERE. THAT WILL BE ABOUT A
15 DEGREE DROP FROM YESTERDAY WHICH SAW MID TO UPPER 70S. IF YOU
ARE GOING OUT TODAY A GOOD WARM COAT WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S...ONE OF
THE NICE THINGS ABOUT LIVING IN THIS REGION. THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING
LATE TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DRAG
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRAG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF... COMBINING THIS WITH APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE LAST TRUE RAINFALL WAS THE MIDDLE OF LAST MONTH SO
ANY RAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION FROM DRYING OUT. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  66  49  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
KBPT  64  41  67  55  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
KAEX  59  34  64  42  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  60  36  67  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010932
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
432 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. DEW POINTS ARE SHOWING THE
NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTH OF AEX DRIVING TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ATTM. TODAY...WINDS ALONG AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE BRISK.

THIS IS THE FIRST...BUT NOT THE LAST TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT
WILL MAKE IT`S WAY INTO OUR REGION THIS FALL. UNDER SUNNY SKIES
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS CNTRL LA AND THE
LAKES REGION IN SE TX...LWR 60S ELSEWHERE. THAT WILL BE ABOUT A
15 DEGREE DROP FROM YESTERDAY WHICH SAW MID TO UPPER 70S. IF YOU
ARE GOING OUT TODAY A GOOD WARM COAT WILL BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S...ONE OF
THE NICE THINGS ABOUT LIVING IN THIS REGION. THE GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH SHOWERS RETURNING
LATE TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL DRAG
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DRAG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF... COMBINING THIS WITH APPROACH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE LAST TRUE RAINFALL WAS THE MIDDLE OF LAST MONTH SO
ANY RAINS WILL HELP KEEP THE REGION FROM DRYING OUT. RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  66  49  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
KBPT  64  41  67  55  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
KAEX  59  34  64  42  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
KLFT  60  36  67  47  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CDT
     TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







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000
FXUS64 KLIX 010932
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD STEADILY INTO THE GULF
STATES WITH THE STRONGER ADVECTION TO ABATE LATER THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SETTLE THOUGH STILL REMAINING RATHER
GUSTY DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MAIN
ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH FREEZE POTENTIAL. WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE THAT A LARGE PART OF THE AREA MAY FALL
BELOW 32F WOULD PROMPT AN UPGRADE TO WARNING. GUIDANCE IS
TEETERING RIGHT AT 32F AND HOURLY GRIDS ARE ONLY SHOWING 1 HOUR
DURATION OF 31-32F AT SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN SHORT DURATION
EXPECTATIONS AND MAINLY DRAINAGE DRIVEN AS OPPOSED TO ADVECTIVE
COLD...HAVE OPTED TO JUST MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME AND
LET DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS WITH NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT A FEW LOW-
LYING AND DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SHOULD SEE 32F THAT WOULD NEED
MINIMAL TO NO MITIGATION MEASURES ASIDE FROM PET CONSIDERATIONS.
AIR MASS SHOULD MODERATE SLOWLY COME MONDAY AS CENTER OF HIGH
SETTLES OVER EASTERN SEABOARD.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON DEWPOINT RECOVERY...SOME FOG ISSUES MAY DEVELOP OR AT
LEAST A LOW MARINE LAYER CLOUD DECK TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD
FRONT THOUGH MOISTURE FIELD MAY BE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT UPON
ARRIVAL. CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAINFALL MAY HANG STUBBORNLY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A MILD AUTUMN
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWED THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE GUSY WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AS SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND VISIBILITIES ALL WELL
ABOVE THESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY WINDS NEAR MINIMAL
GALES UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE ADVECTION NEUTRALIZES. AN
UPDATED MARINE PACKAGE WILL BE NEEDED TO DROP GALE HEADLINES ONCE
WINDS LESSEN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE NORTH GULF. WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER TO EASTERLIES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING ONSHORE ORIENTED AHEAD OF NEXT COLD
FRONT MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NEXT HIGH SURGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
STRONG AS CURRENT HIGH...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A PERIOD POST-FRONTAL THURSDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...GALE WARNING BECOMING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
...SLURRY SUPPORT...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON FIRE CONDITIONS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  32  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  59  32  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  60  32  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  58  43  63  52 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  60  36  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  60  32  64  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR
KEG







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010537
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1237 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS ACROSS MLU/ELD/SHV AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE TO CONTINUE THROUGH 01/12Z...RELAXING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL AREAS THEREAFTER. WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS...AFTER 02/00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  34  68  43  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  55  31  64  39  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  56  29  64  39  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  56  33  64  42  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  56  30  63  39  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  60  36  68  51  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  59  33  67  44  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  62  33  69  47  76 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 010439
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AND SETTLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS IS MY FINAL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. I WILL BE RETIRING AT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!

IN ADDITION...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT (JOHN TRARES)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

OTHERWISE...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS FALL AS THE POLAR HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL AS LOWER ACADIANA TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. DEW POINTS APPEAR HEADED FOR THE
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
THE FALLING TEMPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO
WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN TROF MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS WHICH HAS A DEEPENING TROF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW AROUND EAST
TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER EURO
WHICH DELAYS THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

MARINE...AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE CAUTION FOR THE VERMILION BAY WATERS
THROUGH TNITE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  44  64  39  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  35  58  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  38  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTH AT THE MORE
COASTAL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  38  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  46  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT UPDATE TO TWEAK TEMPS ACROSS LA PORTIONS OF AREA UPWARD A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN EITHER TO
THE EAST OR THE WEST...AND OVERNIGHT BREEZE MAY HINDER COOLING JUST
SLIGHTLY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF
THE 01/00Z TAF PERIOD TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 6 KNOTS OR
LESS AND BECOME NORTHEAST BY 01/04Z. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  35  59  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  35  55  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  28  56  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  31  56  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  30  56  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  60  36  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  33  59  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  38  62  33  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS IS MY FINAL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. I WILL BE RETIRING AT
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. BEST OF LUCK TO ALL!

IN ADDITION...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT (JOHN TRARES)


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

OTHERWISE...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
MASS WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS FALL AS THE POLAR HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL AS LOWER ACADIANA TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. DEW POINTS APPEAR HEADED FOR THE
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
THE FALLING TEMPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO
WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN TROF MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS WHICH HAS A DEEPENING TROF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW AROUND EAST
TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER EURO
WHICH DELAYS THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

MARINE...AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE CAUTION FOR THE VERMILION BAY WATERS
THROUGH TNITE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  44  64  39  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  35  58  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  38  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 9 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 010114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
814 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST SOUNDING OF NOVEMBER /IN UTC/ HAS WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS AND THEN FROM THE WEST ABOVE
300MB. A PEAK WIND OF 86 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 19800 FEET. THESE
WINDS ARE BRINGING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL AND DRY AIR.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW THE DRY ADIABATS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT
6500 FEET. THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO IS RIGHT ABOVE THIS LEVEL AND ALSO WHERE A SIGNIFICANT DRYING
OF THE COLUMN OCCURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF COURSE ARE ALSO
BELOW THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE
BALLOON WAS IN FLIGHT FOR 101 MINUTES BEFORE TERMINATING AT A HEIGHT
OF 19.6 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND 60 MILES
DOWNRANGE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...BUT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DRIEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI AND KANSAS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

SHORT TERM...

CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS AS
LOW AS 1000 FEET LATER THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY AS EARLIER ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE OVER LAND. MIXING WILL HELP PREVENT
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TOMORROW NIGHT AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. WITH THIS
BEING THE FIRST COLD SPELL OF THE YEAR...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
FREEZE WATCH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING
NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 35

LONG TERM...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. BEYOND
TUESDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS
THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO HOUSTON BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH SPREADS A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER...NEAR
EL PASO ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL
BE USED FOR NOW. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-30 RANGE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON RAIN CHANCES. 35

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS AT KMSY AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT
KNEW FROM ABOUT 23Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 12Z SATURDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...

STRONG COLD FRONT WITH COLDEST AIR OF SEASON WILL HELP TRANSPORT
STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DOWN FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT. PATTERN OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO BE NEAR OR ON THE STRONG SIDE OF MARINE MOS GUIDANCE
TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING
VALID THROUGH 6 AM ON SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS...THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
THEN MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RISING AGAIN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS
UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY BEFORE EASING BACK TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 22/TD

FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 PERCENT TOMORROW WITH
15-20 MPH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
COORDINATION WITH THE US FOREST SERVICE AND MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
CONCERNS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...GALE WARNING...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  38  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  46  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE WATERS.

OTHERWISE...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
MASS WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS FALL AS THE POLAR HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL AS LOWER ACADIANA TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. DEW POINTS APPEAR HEADED FOR THE
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
THE FALLING TEMPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO
WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN TROF MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS WHICH HAS A DEEPENING TROF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW AROUND EAST
TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER EURO
WHICH DELAYS THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

MARINE...AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE CAUTION FOR THE VERMILION BAY WATERS
THROUGH TNITE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  44  64  39  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  35  58  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  38  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 312324
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
624 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
MASS WILL MAKE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS FALL AS THE POLAR HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL AS LOWER ACADIANA TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. DEW POINTS APPEAR HEADED FOR THE
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
THE FALLING TEMPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO
WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN TROF MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS WHICH HAS A DEEPENING TROF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW AROUND EAST
TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER EURO
WHICH DELAYS THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

MARINE...AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE CAUTION FOR THE VERMILION BAY WATERS
THROUGH TNITE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  44  64  39  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  36  58  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  38  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST.
     MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CDT SATURDAY THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 312318
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. NORTH WINDS 10 KNOTS AT THE START OF
THE 01/00Z TAF PERIOD TO QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 6 KNOTS OR
LESS AND BECOME NORTHEAST BY 01/04Z. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  59  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  33  55  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  26  56  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  31  56  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  30  56  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  60  36  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  33  59  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  38  62  33  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 312239
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR SURGE IS UNDERWAY AS EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DID REBOUND NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A COOL MORNING BUT THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE AR/LA
STATE LINE AND EXTENDING WWRD ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX.
THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER
OF SW AR THAT WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY INCLUDED IN THE WARNED AREA. A
REPEAT IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WE MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GOOD ADVICE FOR
BOTH NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND IS TO PROTECT TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS SOME
PATCHY FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EVEN IN SPOTS THAT DO NOT REACH
FREEZING. AS FOR WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON SO
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF AND DEVELOPING
CUT OFF LOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO EXTEND THE PERIOD FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE EXITING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  59  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  33  55  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  26  56  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  31  56  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  30  56  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  60  36  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  33  59  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  38  62  33  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 312239
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AS WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR SURGE IS UNDERWAY AS EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DID REBOUND NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A COOL MORNING BUT THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE AR/LA
STATE LINE AND EXTENDING WWRD ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX.
THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER
OF SW AR THAT WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY INCLUDED IN THE WARNED AREA. A
REPEAT IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WE MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GOOD ADVICE FOR
BOTH NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND IS TO PROTECT TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS SOME
PATCHY FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EVEN IN SPOTS THAT DO NOT REACH
FREEZING. AS FOR WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON SO
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF AND DEVELOPING
CUT OFF LOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO EXTEND THE PERIOD FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE EXITING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  59  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  33  55  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  26  56  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  31  56  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  30  56  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  60  36  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  33  59  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  38  62  33  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 312113
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR SURGE IS UNDERWAY AS EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DID REBOUND NICELY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A COOL MORNING BUT THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE AR/LA
STATE LINE AND EXTENDING WWRD ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX.
THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER
OF SW AR THAT WAS NOT PREVIOUSLY INCLUDED IN THE WARNED AREA. A
REPEAT IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY MORNING AND WE MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN
ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. GOOD ADVICE FOR
BOTH NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND IS TO PROTECT TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS SOME
PATCHY FROST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EVEN IN SPOTS THAT DO NOT REACH
FREEZING. AS FOR WINDS...THEY HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS AFTERNOON SO
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH OUR TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION WITH AN UPPER TROF AND DEVELOPING
CUT OFF LOW. THIS IS LIKELY TO EXTEND THE PERIOD FOR SHWRS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BEFORE EXITING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  59  34  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  33  55  31  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  26  56  29  64  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TXK  31  56  33  64  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  30  56  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  60  36  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  33  59  33  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  38  62  33  69  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 312044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND WILL BE PUSHING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST SO
FAR THIS FALL AS THE POLAR HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES
AS WELL AS LOWER ACADIANA TO EXPIRE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE ALEXANDRIA AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH. DEW POINTS APPEAR HEADED FOR THE
20S DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE
THE FALLING TEMPS UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHEAST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO
WHICH SHOWS AN OPEN TROF MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFS WHICH HAS A DEEPENING TROF SETTING UP A CLOSED LOW AROUND EAST
TEXAS. USED A BLEND OF TEMPS LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER EURO
WHICH DELAYS THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROF UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

SWEENEY

&&

.MARINE...AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH LATE TNITE. OTHERWISE CAUTION FOR THE VERMILION BAY WATERS
THROUGH TNITE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  62  34  66  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  44  64  39  67  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  36  58  31  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  38  58  33  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST.
     MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
     SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 312038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER...DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...BUT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DRIEST AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IN ARKANSAS...MISSOURI AND KANSAS...WHERE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY
MONDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.

MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE WINDS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS AS
LOW AS 1000 FEET LATER THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WILL CONTINUE THE
WIND ADVISORY AS EARLIER ISSUED. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE OVER LAND. MIXING WILL HELP PREVENT
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TOMORROW NIGHT AND LIGHTER
WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. WITH THIS
BEING THE FIRST COLD SPELL OF THE YEAR...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A
FREEZE WATCH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING
NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN. BEYOND
TUESDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS
THE FASTEST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW TO HOUSTON BY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY
WEDNESDAY WHICH SPREADS A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER...NEAR
EL PASO ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WAS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL
BE USED FOR NOW. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
20-30 RANGE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST. IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON RAIN CHANCES. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS AT KMSY AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT
KNEW FROM ABOUT 23Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 12Z SATURDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG COLD FRONT WITH COLDEST AIR OF SEASON WILL HELP TRANSPORT
STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS DOWN FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
TONIGHT. PATTERN OF COLD AIR MOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATER...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO BE NEAR OR ON THE STRONG SIDE OF MARINE MOS GUIDANCE
TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING
VALID THROUGH 6 AM ON SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN
COASTAL WATERS...THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS ON SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
THEN MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RISING AGAIN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING AGAIN DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS
UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON TUESDAY BEFORE EASING BACK TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. 22/TD


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE NEAR 25 PERCENT TOMORROW WITH
15-20 MPH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
COORDINATION WITH THE US FOREST SERVICE AND MISSISSIPPI FORESTRY
CONCERNS...WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...GALE WARNING...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  35  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  38  60  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  38  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  46  59  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  41  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  38  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...LIVINGSTON...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...POINTE
     COUPEE...SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. HELENA...ST.
     TAMMANY...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 8 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE
     ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
     OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 311752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE
COLUMN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...THEREFORE THIS ISSUANCE REMAINS
JUST A WIND FORECAST FOR NOW. TIGHT GRADIENT/CAA BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE MORNING FROPA WILL ALLOW NRLY WINDS TO EXCEED 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AGAIN BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY BEFORE
RELAXING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF LUFKIN
AND NATCHITOCHES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA COVERING ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
INCLUDE LAFAYETTE AND POINTS EAST CONSIDERING THE UPDATED GFS MOS
DATA. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE VALID TIME TO AROUND SUNSET AS WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH.

MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE MID 70S FOR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKING GOOD WITH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY... NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICKUP AND WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX...NOW JUST
SOUTH OF I-20. ACROSS OUR REGION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S N OF I-10...WITH NEAR/LOWER 50S ALONG AND S OF I-10.

ALOFT...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY & SAT...ALLOWING FOR THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN OPEN
DOOR FROM CANADA FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOME OF COLD AIR TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE STRONG CAA EVENTS...WINDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS AREAS OF SE TX/S LA FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...MOST
NOTABLY TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR THIS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE AREA LAKES/BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWS FOR
SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA...TO NEAR 40/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONGER N
WINDS...TEMPS WILL FEEL SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.

WITH THE HIGH MAINLY SETTLING JUST NE OF THE REGION...LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS C LA...LIKELY TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO. THUS...A FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FURTHER S AND W...TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND
MON...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY TUE...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG
TERM SOLNS...WITH CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER
TX...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE BY WED. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND
PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES HERE. THUS...KEPT ONGOING
TRENDS OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COME IN) FOR THU.

DML

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE LAKES/BAYS...WITH
COASTAL WATERS IMPROVING FROM N TO S AS THE HIGH BUILDS S.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  44  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  72  36  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  74  40  59  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311615
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARMING WELL UNDERWAY WITH CLEAR SKIES BUT SOME COLD AIR STRATOCU
IS BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE OK AND OUR ADJACENT SW AR COUNTIES SO
HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. GUSTY N/NW WINDS ARE ALREADY MEETING OR EXCEEDING CRITERIA
FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
ATTM AND NEW PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0813 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/12Z TAF PD.
HOWEVER...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY. SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR BY 01/00Z. WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
COLUMN. /24/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND SEASONAL FALL WEATHER FOR NOW...BUT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
AND 48 HOURS OF WINTER ARE ON THE WAY AND WITH A NORTHERLY PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL SOON BE FELT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA IN SHORT ORDER DURING TODAY. WE
HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNSET. TECHNICALLY 2 HOURS OR MORE OF GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL VERIFY THE ADVISORY AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
HAVE HAD A LATER START TIME...BUT OUR 88D VAD ALREADY HAS 30KTS AT
1KFT...SO WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS EVEN BEFORE LATE MORNING WITH GOOD
MIXING AND SUNNY SKIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND AREA WIDE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP UP FOR THIS
EVENING...SO JACKETS ARE GOOD TAKE ALONG FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT
ON THIS ALL SAINT/S EVE WITH FIFTIES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO 40S
DURING THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE FOR AN
ISSUE AS WELL. AIR IN THE 30S WILL FILTER IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING TEMPS CROPPING UP BY THREE AM NORTH OF I-30 UNTIL WELL
AFTER SUNUP. WE WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 20S THERE WITH NUMBERS DOWN
TO AROUND 30 OR 31 FOR THE WARNING AREA...LIKEWISE AT LEAST TWO
HOURS TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS. SEVERAL RURAL
AREAS WILL GET DOWN TO 32 FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE WINDS WILL SLACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND THAT COULD FREEZE
LEAVES ON TENDER TROPICAL PLANTS. IT WILL BE BETTER SAFE THAN
SORRY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
THE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS HOUR AT JUST INTO NE KN AND IA. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUR ALLY AND KEEP FROST FROM BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE
EXCEPT WHERE 20S OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ONLY AS THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER...AFTER A 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...THE SECOND NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
FROSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES WITH STILL
GREEN PLANTS AND MOIST SOIL IN SHADED AREAS. IF YOU CAN ESCAPE THE
PLANT LOSS ON THE FIRST DAY...THE SECOND ATTEMPT MAY NOT BE
ADVISED TO CHANCE. THE AIR MASS MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE DURING
SUNDAY AS WE RESUME WITH MORE NORMAL FALL CONDITIONS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK IS SIMILAR WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS. THE MODELS STILL LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING ELECTION DAY FOR THE MOST PART...SLOW
AND STEADY TO COMPLETE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM
THERE AND STILL SOME QUESTIONS NOW FOR HOW IT ALL ENDS OVER OUR
CWA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGHOUT THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  34  59  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  33  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  26  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  31  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  32  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  68  34  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  33  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  38  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 311531
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1031 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF LUFKIN
AND NATCHITOCHES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
THE WIND ADVISORY AREA COVERING ALL OF THE COASTAL ZONES TO
INCLUDE LAFAYETTE AND POINTS EAST CONSIDERING THE UPDATED GFS MOS
DATA. ALSO TRIMMED BACK THE VALID TIME TO AROUND SUNSET AS WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH.

MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE MID 70S FOR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKING GOOD WITH COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY... NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICKUP AND WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX...NOW JUST
SOUTH OF I-20. ACROSS OUR REGION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S N OF I-10...WITH NEAR/LOWER 50S ALONG AND S OF I-10.

ALOFT...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY & SAT...ALLOWING FOR THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN OPEN
DOOR FROM CANADA FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOME OF COLD AIR TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE STRONG CAA EVENTS...WINDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS AREAS OF SE TX/S LA FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...MOST
NOTABLY TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR THIS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE AREA LAKES/BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWS FOR
SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA...TO NEAR 40/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONGER N
WINDS...TEMPS WILL FEEL SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.

WITH THE HIGH MAINLY SETTLING JUST NE OF THE REGION...LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS C LA...LIKELY TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO. THUS...A FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FURTHER S AND W...TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND
MON...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY TUE...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG
TERM SOLNS...WITH CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER
TX...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE BY WED. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND
PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES HERE. THUS...KEPT ONGOING
TRENDS OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COME IN) FOR THU.

DML

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE LAKES/BAYS...WITH
COASTAL WATERS IMPROVING FROM N TO S AS THE HIGH BUILDS S.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  44  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  72  36  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  74  40  59  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...UPPER ST.
     MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311312 CCA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
0813 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/12Z TAF PD.
HOWEVER...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY. SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR BY 01/00Z. WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...WE ARE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
COLUMN. /24/

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND SEASONAL FALL WEATHER FOR NOW...BUT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
AND 48 HOURS OF WINTER ARE ON THE WAY AND WITH A NORTHERLY PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL SOON BE FELT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA IN SHORT ORDER DURING TODAY. WE
HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNSET. TECHNICALLY 2 HOURS OR MORE OF GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL VERIFY THE ADVISORY AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
HAVE HAD A LATER START TIME...BUT OUR 88D VAD ALREADY HAS 30KTS AT
1KFT...SO WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS EVEN BEFORE LATE MORNING WITH GOOD
MIXING AND SUNNY SKIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND AREA WIDE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP UP FOR THIS
EVENING...SO JACKETS ARE GOOD TAKE ALONG FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT
ON THIS ALL SAINT/S EVE WITH FIFTIES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO 40S
DURING THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE FOR AN
ISSUE AS WELL. AIR IN THE 30S WILL FILTER IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING TEMPS CROPPING UP BY THREE AM NORTH OF I-30 UNTIL WELL
AFTER SUNUP. WE WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 20S THERE WITH NUMBERS DOWN
TO AROUND 30 OR 31 FOR THE WARNING AREA...LIKEWISE AT LEAST TWO
HOURS TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS. SEVERAL RURAL
AREAS WILL GET DOWN TO 32 FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE WINDS WILL SLACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND THAT COULD FREEZE
LEAVES ON TENDER TROPICAL PLANTS. IT WILL BE BETTER SAFE THAN
SORRY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
THE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS HOUR AT JUST INTO NE KN AND IA. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUR ALLY AND KEEP FROST FROM BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE
EXCEPT WHERE 20S OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ONLY AS THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER...AFTER A 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...THE SECOND NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
FROSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES WITH STILL
GREEN PLANTS AND MOIST SOIL IN SHADED AREAS. IF YOU CAN ESCAPE THE
PLANT LOSS ON THE FIRST DAY...THE SECOND ATTEMPT MAY NOT BE
ADVISED TO CHANCE. THE AIR MASS MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE DURING
SUNDAY AS WE RESUME WITH MORE NORMAL FALL CONDITIONS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK IS SIMILAR WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS. THE MODELS STILL LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING ELECTION DAY FOR THE MOST PART...SLOW
AND STEADY TO COMPLETE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM
THERE AND STILL SOME QUESTIONS NOW FOR HOW IT ALL ENDS OVER OUR
CWA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGHOUT THE PACKAGE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  34  59  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  33  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  26  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  31  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  32  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  68  34  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  33  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  38  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

24/06









000
FXUS64 KLCH 311244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY... NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICKUP AND WILL BE THE PROBLEM OF THE DAY... OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT
RULES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX...NOW JUST
SOUTH OF I-20. ACROSS OUR REGION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S N OF I-10...WITH NEAR/LOWER 50S ALONG AND S OF I-10.

ALOFT...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY & SAT...ALLOWING FOR THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN OPEN
DOOR FROM CANADA FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOME OF COLD AIR TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE STRONG CAA EVENTS...WINDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS AREAS OF SE TX/S LA FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...MOST
NOTABLY TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR THIS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE AREA LAKES/BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWS FOR
SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA...TO NEAR 40/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONGER N
WINDS...TEMPS WILL FEEL SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.

WITH THE HIGH MAINLY SETTLING JUST NE OF THE REGION...LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS C LA...LIKELY TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO. THUS...A FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FURTHER S AND W...TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND
MON...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY TUE...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG
TERM SOLNS...WITH CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER
TX...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE BY WED. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND
PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES HERE. THUS...KEPT ONGOING
TRENDS OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COME IN) FOR THU.

DML

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE LAKES/BAYS...WITH
COASTAL WATERS IMPROVING FROM N TO S AS THE HIGH BUILDS S.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  75  44  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  72  36  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  75  40  59  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST.
     MARTIN...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 311013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND SEASONAL FALL WEATHER FOR NOW...BUT THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
AND 48 HOURS OF WINTER ARE ON THE WAY AND WITH A NORTHERLY PROFILE
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...THIS NEXT FRONT WILL SOON BE FELT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA IN SHORT ORDER DURING TODAY. WE
HAVE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OUT FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING TO JUST PAST SUNSET. TECHNICALLY 2 HOURS OR MORE OF GUSTS
TO 25 MPH WILL VERIFY THE ADVISORY AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 COULD
HAVE HAD A LATER START TIME...BUT OUR 88D VAD ALREADY HAS 30KTS AT
1KFT...SO WE MAY SEE SOME GUSTS EVEN BEFORE LATE MORNING WITH GOOD
MIXING AND SUNNY SKIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND AREA WIDE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

AT ANY RATE...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP UP FOR THIS
EVENING...SO JACKETS ARE GOOD TAKE ALONG FOR THOSE VENTURING OUT
ON THIS ALL SAINT/S EVE WITH FIFTIES QUICKLY DROPPING INTO 40S
DURING THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE WIND CHILL WILL MAKE FOR AN
ISSUE AS WELL. AIR IN THE 30S WILL FILTER IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
FREEZING TEMPS CROPPING UP BY THREE AM NORTH OF I-30 UNTIL WELL
AFTER SUNUP. WE WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 20S THERE WITH NUMBERS DOWN
TO AROUND 30 OR 31 FOR THE WARNING AREA...LIKEWISE AT LEAST TWO
HOURS TO BE SIGNIFICANT FOR PIPES...PETS AND PLANTS. SEVERAL RURAL
AREAS WILL GET DOWN TO 32 FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
WHEN THE WINDS WILL SLACK TO LESS THAN 5 MPH AND THAT COULD FREEZE
LEAVES ON TENDER TROPICAL PLANTS. IT WILL BE BETTER SAFE THAN
SORRY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING AREA IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.
THE FREEZING TEMPS AT THIS HOUR AT JUST INTO NE KN AND IA. THE
WINDS WILL BE OUR ALLY AND KEEP FROST FROM BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE
EXCEPT WHERE 20S OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ONLY AS THE FRESH ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE TOO DRY. HOWEVER...AFTER A 15 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW
AVERAGE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...THE SECOND NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
FROSTY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES WITH STILL
GREEN PLANTS AND MOIST SOIL IN SHADED AREAS. IF YOU CAN ESCAPE THE
PLANT LOSS ON THE FIRST DAY...THE SECOND ATTEMPT MAY NOT BE
ADVISED TO CHANCE. THE AIR MASS MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE DURING
SUNDAY AS WE RESUME WITH MORE NORMAL FALL CONDITIONS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK IS SIMILAR WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS. THE MODELS STILL LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EDGE INTO THE AREA DURING ELECTION DAY FOR THE MOST PART...SLOW
AND STEADY TO COMPLETE COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS DIVERGE FROM
THERE AND STILL SOME QUESTIONS NOW FOR HOW IT ALL ENDS OVER OUR
CWA. MAV/MEX NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BLENDED THROUGHOUT THE PACKAGE.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  34  59  34  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  33  55  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  26  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  31  56  33  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  67  32  56  30  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  68  34  58  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  70  33  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  38  62  33  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112.

&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLIX 310941
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
441 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A QUIET AND COOL MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. YOU WILL KNOW
WHEN THE COLDER DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND A
DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TIGHTENING OF
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE OUR WINDS BUT IS THE
DRIVING FORCE PUSHING THE COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THAT IS
COULD POSSIBLY BRING THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON THIS WEEKEND.
WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR LOOKS TO BE ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. ALL GUIDANCE STILL POINTS TO A POTENTIAL FREEZE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE
AREA...CLEAR SKIES AND A CHANCE FOR OUR WINDS TO DECOUPLE OR GO
CALM SETS THE STAGE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESS TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT HAVE A PROBLEM DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
LOW 30S...THE QUESTION REMAINS JUST HOW LOW DO THEY GO AND HOW
LONG. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
BE SHORT...HOWEVER THERE IS A REAL CHANCE THAT A FREEZE WARNING
COULD BE NEEDED IF THE WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXCEED 2 TO
3 HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY AS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
MONDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF. AFTER THAT THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY OR SOMETIME
SHORTLY THERE AFTER...THE REASON THAT IS BEING SAID THAT WAY IS
BECAUSE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE MULTIPLE PLAYERS ON THE
FIELD IN THE LONG RANGE. ALL MODELS POINT TO A SLOW MOVING
ELONGATED FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THE
INTERESTING THING IS THIS FRONT INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL LOW THAT
IS WELL SOUTH INTO MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL FEATURE TRAVERSES MEXICO
ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS UP IN TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY ALL OF THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS ALL MAJOR MODELS...AT LEAST
THESE RUNS...POINT TO THE SCENARIO PLAYING OUT BUT WITH DIFFERENT
TIMING AND PROGRESSION. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG
RANGE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN FOR TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WILL BE WINDS. AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DIVES DOWN INTO THE
REGION WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTN AND
THROUGH THE EVNG. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF
THE LAKE IMPACTING KNEW AND KMSY. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY AND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS
RAMPING BACK UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN AND MORE SO THIS EVNG AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 25 KTS OVER
MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THAT WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A SCY FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS BEGINNING AT 21Z. CAA WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THEN SLACK OFF AS WE MOVE INTO SAT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE TIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING SAT BUT
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN DURING THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL FINALLY RELAX.
WAVES/SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 8-9 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND RIGHT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
RIVER. WINDS WILL BACK OFF ENOUGH FOR HEADLINES TO DROP BY SUN
MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS THROUGH SUN AND INTO
MON BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST ONSHORE WILL COMMENCE
AND WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL START TO PICK BACK UP. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  74  37  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  74  37  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  45  59  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  75  40  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  36  60  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 310926
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
426 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TX...NOW JUST
SOUTH OF I-20. ACROSS OUR REGION...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S N OF I-10...WITH NEAR/LOWER 50S ALONG AND S OF I-10.

ALOFT...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. TODAY & SAT...ALLOWING FOR THE LONGWAVE
TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL LEAVE AN OPEN
DOOR FROM CANADA FOR A SIGNIFICANT DOME OF COLD AIR TO CONTINUE
PLUNGING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT N WINDS TO INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE STRONG CAA EVENTS...WINDS WILL
BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER ACROSS AREAS OF SE TX/S LA FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...MOST
NOTABLY TOWARDS THE COAST. FOR THIS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE AREA LAKES/BAYS AND
COASTAL WATERS HAVE ACCOMPANYING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. LOWS FOR
SAT MORNING WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C
LA...TO NEAR 40/LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STRONGER N
WINDS...TEMPS WILL FEEL SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER.

WITH THE HIGH MAINLY SETTLING JUST NE OF THE REGION...LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST ACROSS C LA...LIKELY TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR SO. THUS...A FREEZE WARNING MAY HAVE
TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
FURTHER S AND W...TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND
MON...WITH RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
BY TUE...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG LONG
TERM SOLNS...WITH CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW FORMATION POSSIBLE OVER
TX...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF EAST PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANCE BY WED. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND
PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES HERE. THUS...KEPT ONGOING
TRENDS OF HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE TUE INTO WED...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY COME IN) FOR THU.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR
SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM
4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE LAKES/BAYS...WITH
COASTAL WATERS IMPROVING FROM N TO S AS THE HIGH BUILDS S.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  42  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  75  44  61  42  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  72  36  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  75  40  59  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST.
     MARTIN...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION
     BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 310445
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/06Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR BY 01/00Z. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 310411
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 310411
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AT KNEW AND KMSY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 310202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
902 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVG INTO SE OK...TO MOVE ACROSS AREA TONIGHT.
LATE NIGHT BREEZES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND A FEW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. THESE FACTORS WILL SOMEWHAT CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT...
THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH COULD DROP A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN VALLEY
REGIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/00Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 310049
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
749 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ATMOSPHERE HAS REALLY COOLED OFF AND DRIED OUT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. OVERALL...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN/S TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN
LOWERED BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS DOWN AN INCH AND WELL BELOW THE 0.90
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR LATE OCTOBER. WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE
MID-LEVELS AND FINALLY THE WEST ABOVE 350MB. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF
57 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 26500 FEET.

00Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS EVENING/S FLIGHT. THE
BALLOON WAS IN FLIGHT FOR 100 MINUTES AND BURST AT A HEIGHT OF 20
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE TERMINATION OCCURRED OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO SOUTH OF PASS CHRISTIAN MS 40 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE
LAUNCH SITE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCALLY...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COOLER
AIR MASS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SITTING IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES SINCE
THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AGAIN. LATE BUT THEN A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FRIDAY
EVENING AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES AT TRICK OR TREAT TIME WILL DROP FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 5PM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 8PM. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY SETS IN...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE A FEW PLACES WON/T
EVEN REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING THE
SEASON/S FIRST FREEZE HAS WARMED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND IS NOW
IN LINE WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTING LOWS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. AM STILL CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH THE
JET PATTERN BRINGING IN COLD AIR DIRECT FROM CANADA...CAN/T RULE
OUT THAT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED LOCATIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECASTS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY...AND BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. WHILE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HOLDING THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT WITH
ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUN ELONGATED THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF A LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH RESULTED IN HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z RUN...HOWEVER...HAS COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE IT STILL CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER TEXAS...IT NEVER TRULY DISSOCIATES FROM THE MEAN FLOW.
INSTEAD...IT MOVES EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS FASTER SOLUTION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER BEING ELEVATED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRI/SAT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  71  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  47  74  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  45  75  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  74  45  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  46  75  40  61 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  41  76  36  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 302334
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 31/00Z TAF
PD. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU/ELD/TXK
TERMINAL SITES BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NLY WINDS OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
/05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLCH 302322
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT VRB TO NEAR CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY DURING FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT OVER SE OK NORTH CENTRAL TX PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE GULF WATERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TWD THE NE GULF COAST. A BREEZY BUT STILL WARM AFTERNOON IS ON
TAP...AS THE REAL DRY/COLD PUNCH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW EVENING AS A
SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
MIDWEST PLUNGES INTO THE SE CONUS. TRICK OR TREAT TIME FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AND COOL AS TEMPERATURES FALL
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STOUT CAA.

CLEAR AND COLD WILL PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD...WITH SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKING QUITE
COLD WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA. AMID
LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL MARSHES FALLING INTO THE 30S.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DEEPER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WRN CONUS TROF. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF AND
THE DOWNSTREAM AFFECTS IN OUR REGION...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON GOOD
GULF AND PACIFIC MSTR FEEDS YIELDING A DECENT RAIN EVENT IN THE
TUE-THU TIME PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
FRONT. THE LATEST ECMWF TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS...SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT TUE NIGHT AND WED.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FRIDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
SUNDAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH TUESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  75  42  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  55  76  44  63  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  71  37  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  74  40  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 302129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CDFNT OVER SE OK NORTH CENTRAL TX PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE GULF WATERS TOMORROW
MORNING AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TWD THE NE GULF COAST. A BREEZY BUT STILL WARM AFTERNOON IS ON
TAP...AS THE REAL DRY/COLD PUNCH WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW EVENING AS A
SECOND AND MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
MIDWEST PLUNGES INTO THE SE CONUS. TRICK OR TREAT TIME FRIDAY
EVENING WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AND COOL AS TEMPERATURES FALL
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND STOUT CAA.

CLEAR AND COLD WILL PREVAIL FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD...WITH SAT NIGHT STILL LOOKING QUITE
COLD WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA. AMID
LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OF THE COLD
AND DRY AIRMASS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL MARSHES FALLING INTO THE 30S.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS
TO SHIFT EAST...WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DEEPER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WRN CONUS TROF. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAFFLE A BIT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF AND
THE DOWNSTREAM AFFECTS IN OUR REGION...BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON GOOD
GULF AND PACIFIC MSTR FEEDS YIELDING A DECENT RAIN EVENT IN THE
TUE-THU TIME PERIOD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC
FRONT. THE LATEST ECMWF TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS...SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT TUE NIGHT AND WED.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FRIDAY
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING
SUNDAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH TUESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  75  42  61 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  55  76  44  63 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  49  71  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  51  74  40  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 302104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
404 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 30/20Z...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KSPS...TO
KMLC...AND INTO NW AR. THE FRONT CAN ALSO BE LOCATED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF IT FROM N TX NEWD INTO NRN AR AND SE MO.
FRONT HAS GOTTEN QUITE THE PUSH SWD TODAY THANKS TO A 35 KT JET
STREAK AT H85 DIVING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHWRS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER N TX AND AR TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT COMPARISONS OF 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM KSHV/KFWD/KLZK INDICATE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER N TX AND AR. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR.
THEREFORE...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A POP-FREE FCST WITH THIS
FROPA. COLD FRONT ITSELF IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AS EVIDENCE BY TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S IN NRN OK.

STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO DIVE
SWD INTO THE SERN CONUS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AS A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN
HIGH BUILDS SWD INTO THE SRN CONUS. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OUR FIRST
FREEZING TEMPS IN MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-20. FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CWA N OF I-20 FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
FOR SUNDAY MORNING BUT INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AND SELY SFC WINDS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EXTREME SWRN
AR.

THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. THE RETURN OF SLY SFC WINDS AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO A FAST RECOVERY WITH NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH RETURNING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY
RAIN EVENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE AS THE MODELS ARE FCSTING QUITE
A BIT OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE A
POSSIBILITY BUT THE FINE DETAILS ARE STILL MURKY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A KOKC TO KPPF
LINE...WILL CONTINUE RACING SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT NLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  70  36  61  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  70  33  57  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
DEQ  43  65  26  57  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  50  67  30  56  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  47  66  31  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  51  67  36  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  69  36  60  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  49  74  39  63  36 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12





000
FXUS64 KLIX 302038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCALLY...DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COOLER
AIR MASS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY SITTING IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES SINCE
THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA AND HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AGAIN. LATE BUT THEN A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND FRIDAY
EVENING AND TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

TEMPERATURES AT TRICK OR TREAT TIME WILL DROP FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 5PM TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 8PM. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY SETS IN...SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT COOLER.
LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH. CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND IT APPEARS POSSIBLE A FEW PLACES WON/T
EVEN REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THE MID 20S...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE EURO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING THE
SEASON/S FIRST FREEZE HAS WARMED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AND IS NOW
IN LINE WITH THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE FORECASTING LOWS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. AM STILL CARRYING TEMPS IN THE MID 30S...BUT WITH THE
JET PATTERN BRINGING IN COLD AIR DIRECT FROM CANADA...CAN/T RULE
OUT THAT ONE OR TWO ISOLATED LOCATIONS MIGHT BRIEFLY TOUCH THE
FREEZING MARK FOR AN HOUR OR TWO NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECASTS AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.

THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY...AND BOTH
LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ALMOST A FULL 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RESPOND SIMILARLY...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST. WHILE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...THEN MID TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL
FORECASTS BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HOLDING THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE GFS INDICATES THE NEXT FRONT
COULD ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT MORE INCONSISTENT WITH
ITS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUN ELONGATED THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CUT OFF A LOW OVER TEXAS WHICH RESULTED IN HOLDING THE
FRONT BACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z RUN...HOWEVER...HAS COME MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. WHILE IT STILL CLOSES OFF A LOW
OVER TEXAS...IT NEVER TRULY DISSOCIATES FROM THE MEAN FLOW.
INSTEAD...IT MOVES EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
RUNS AND PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED THE FAR
EXTENDED FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS AND ITS FASTER SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER BEING ELEVATED THIS
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRI/SAT AS A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR FRI EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED NEAR THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ON MONDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  47  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  76  47  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  45  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  75  55  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  76  46  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  76  41  76  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301807
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF
PD. A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG A KOKC TO KPPF
LINE...WILL CONTINUE RACING SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT NLY WINDS TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN OF SLY WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS WAY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE NW...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...INTO NW OK...AND INTO NE KS. GOING FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 301735
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...CAVOK AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO RUNWAY USEAGE
PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS, MENTIONED WINDS DECOUPLING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
MID- MORNING FRIDAY DUE TO A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLR SKIES AND NE WINDS. VFR FLIGHT RULES TO HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND IT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...WITH LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY
FROPA. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE WITH ONGOING FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...WITH
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO
WED. DIDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 40% FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...AS STILL
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH
POSSIBLY INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES
HERE.

DML

MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS BY FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  75  43  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  55  75  46  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  75  50  72  38  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  74  41  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301735
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...CAVOK AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IN FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO RUNWAY USEAGE
PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS, MENTIONED WINDS DECOUPLING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY NORTH WINDS
MID- MORNING FRIDAY DUE TO A REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR
ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLR SKIES AND NE WINDS. VFR FLIGHT RULES TO HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND IT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...WITH LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY
FROPA. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE WITH ONGOING FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...WITH
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO
WED. DIDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 40% FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...AS STILL
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH
POSSIBLY INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES
HERE.

DML

MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS BY FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  75  43  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  55  75  46  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  75  50  72  38  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  74  41  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 301717
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY
TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING AS A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  72  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  50  74  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  46  74  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  55  75  45  61 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  48  74  41  62 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  43  75  39  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301538 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1038 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...TEMPS ARE QUICKLY REBOUNDING UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND THE RETURN OF SLY WINDS. NEXT COLD FRONT IS
ON ITS WAY BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE NW...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE...INTO NW OK...AND INTO NE KS. GOING FCST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS E TX/NW LA...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN AC FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z ACROSS SE OK/SW AR AND
EVENTUALLY NCNTRL LA. THIS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
SKC EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD ALSO
SEE A SCT CU FIELD AFFECT THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX AFTER 00Z...BEFORE
QUICKLY SCOURING BY 06Z. SFC RIDGING WILL RESULT IN LT/VRB WINDS
TODAY...BEFORE TURNING NW AROUND 5KTS LATE WITH THE NEXT COLD FROPA. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS SPRAWLED OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS OR CALM IN MANY CASES. OUR SKIES ARE CLEAR OVERHEAD
WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE FORTIES ALMOST AREA WIDE. WE ARE CLOSING IN
ON DEW POINTS WITH DEW AND SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND THERE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL...A STELLAR DAY IS AHEAD RIGHT AROUND
PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS DESPITE THE COOLER START. OUR SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE COMING AROUND TO S AND E AS THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER.

OVERNIGHT THE NEXT APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SHALLOW
AND HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO DISPLACE...SO A DRY PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...EVEN A CU FIELD NOW IN THE AUSTIN AREA...COULD TOUCH OFF SOME
ACTIVITY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH. THE FRESH ARCTIC WINDS
WILL BE BLOWING AND GOING SOUTH TOMORROW AS THIS NEXT HIGH POWERS
INTO THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TOMORROW
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SATURDAY MORNING AT DAYBREAK OR
SO...THE WINDS WILL SLACK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPIRED FROM VEGETATION AND SOIL FOR SOME LIGHT FROST IN THE
I-CORRIDOR ONLY...BUT THE AIR WILL BE VERY DRY WITH 20 DEW POINTS.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AND THIS FROST MAY ONLY OCCUR IN
SHELTERED AREAS...BUT ONE THING FOR SURE IS THAT IT WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AREA WIDE TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. OUR HIGHS
WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOV AVERAGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND
PATCHY FROST MAY AFFECT A FEW MORE LOCALES EARLY SUNDAY AREA WIDE.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WHILE RADIATING DOWN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROM THERE THE WINDS QUICKLY WARM US IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE IS NOT A LOT
DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INTO ELECTION DAY. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAINFALL
COVERAGE WILL BE SPREADING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
STILL A MUCH NEEDED SOAKING FOR MANY EXPECTED TO UNFOLD DURING THE
EVENING AS RESULTS TRICKLE IN...THE RAIN WILL BE PICKING UP AREA
WIDE. WEDNESDAY IS STILL A LACKING TOTAL AGREEMENT AS THE GFS
LOSES THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE SLOWER EURO IS
SLOWLY RAMPING UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY. SO FOR NOW 50/50 CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE FOR OUR EXPECTATIONS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  50  71  36  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
MLU  74  46  71  35  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
DEQ  75  43  66  28  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  74  50  68  33  56 /   0  10   0   0   0
ELD  73  47  67  32  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
TYR  77  51  68  36  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  76  48  70  35  60 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  78  49  75  39  63 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09







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