Home > Products > State Listing > Louisiana Data
Latest:
 AFDSHV |  AFDLCH |  AFDLIX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240923
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
423 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA. 5H
TEMPS ARE -7C ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA AND -6C ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH FLORIDA WITH A 1MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 00Z
SHOWED VALUES ABV 1.8 INCHES FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO NORTH
FLORIDA AND VALUES LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST OVER
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST DOWN GLIDE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BUILDING OVER EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL INCREASE 5H TEMPS AT UP TO -5C THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS A MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S DUE TO LESS CLOUDS AND INCREASED HEIGHTS. WIND FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WEAK TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES EACH AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND STALLING OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AROUND THE FRONT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 18

&&


.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MCB AND HUM THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE LOCATIONS SEEING VIS ABOUT 5SM.  OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CU FIELD WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH AN EARLIER START NEAR THE
COAST.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  72 /  30  20  20  10
BTR  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  90  72  92  75 /  30  20  30  10
MSY  89  77  90  77 /  30  20  30  10
GPT  90  74  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  72  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.


&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.


&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.


&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 240913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
ACADIANA. UNDER THE DISTURBANCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
NOTED NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES HAVE RECENTLY
REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAMERON PARISH. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY A LEFT OVER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EARLIER MCS FROM
NORTH LA, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER
TODAY AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM.

FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LVLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH
GRADUALLY NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING TEMPS SOMEWHAT... EXCEPT FROM ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SOUTH FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES "COOLER". HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105
RANGE ALONG A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEK... A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WEAKENING THE UPPER LVL RIDGE LOCALLY.
THIS MAY SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE STATES POTENTIALLY DRIFTING
INTO THE AREA BY TUE. ANY LOWER TEMPS OR DEW POINTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.


&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE TODAY, HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY INCREASING THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW THAT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  76  93  77  93 /  40  20  20  10  10
KBPT  94  75  94  76  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
KAEX  93  74  96  74  95 /  30  20  20  10  10
KLFT  92  75  93  75  93 /  40  20  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 240514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME KICKING IN THE DOOR WITH A PRE FRONTAL
DERECHO. UPPER LEVEL EGG BEATERS FUNNELED THE ENERGY FROM THE
BOOT HEEL OF MO DOWN INTO NE TX. THE SFC WINDS ARE L/V OR CALM IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY FAR TO OUR N. THE SFC FRONT AND IT/S
DRY AIR ARE WORKING INTO N AR ATTM. A WEAK FRONT WITH NE SFC WINDS
FOR THE ARKLATEX ON THURSDAY. JUST ENOUGH RAIN LAST EVENING TO
MAKE SOME SPOTTY IFR/MVFR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR BR MAYBE A CIG...BUT
HARD CALL WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT THIS TIME. RADAR EST ARE
A BIT OVER DONE COMPLICATING THE PICTURE. LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FAIR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS DRY THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 240455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...TSTMS AROUND BPT AND LCH, APPROACHING LFT BUT SHOULD
MISS TO THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH. VCSH
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND BPT AND LCH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THIS REMNANTS OF AN MCS WHICH MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH.
ADDED VCTS FOR ARA AND AEX THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER SE LA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AT LFT, LCH AND BPT,
NOT SO MUCH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 240455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...TSTMS AROUND BPT AND LCH, APPROACHING LFT BUT SHOULD
MISS TO THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH. VCSH
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND BPT AND LCH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THIS REMNANTS OF AN MCS WHICH MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH.
ADDED VCTS FOR ARA AND AEX THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER SE LA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AT LFT, LCH AND BPT,
NOT SO MUCH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
...06 TAF ISSUANCE...
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT MCB AND HUM. MVRF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
10 AND 13Z BOTH SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 240455
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
...06 TAF ISSUANCE...
PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT MCB AND HUM. MVRF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
10 AND 13Z BOTH SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE IMPACTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AT EACH TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z
FRIDAY. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED
ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  50  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  50  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  50  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  50  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 240203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240203
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 240159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
859 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED ALL WATCHES ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION DUE TO COOL POOL
OUTRUNNING MAIN LINE. COOLER AIR BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SURPASSED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. WENT
AHEAD AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  67  93  70  96  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TXK  68  94  70  95  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
ELD  67  93  68  93  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
GGG  68  95  75  96  75 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MMS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240106
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MMS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  60  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 240056
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
756 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION NOW ALONG INTERSTATE 20 FROM TYLER TO
SHREVEPORT. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE MCS FROM ONGOING WATCHES. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 240053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON BURST WSW OF COVINGTON AT A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES DESPITE INSTABILITY AND SOME DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 550MB ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. ABOVE 550MB WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 27 KNOTS AT ABOUT 7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING/S BALLOON BURST WSW OF COVINGTON AT A HEIGHT OF
ALMOST 20 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES DESPITE INSTABILITY AND SOME DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR. WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 550MB ARE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. ABOVE 550MB WINDS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 27 KNOTS AT ABOUT 7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THEIR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 232346
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALSO...WITH CONVECTION EXITING SOME
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WENT AHEAD AND CANCELED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431.
WATCH 434 REMAINS INTACT AND IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  30  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  30  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232255
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
555 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WOW...JUST AMENDED KTXK...HOPE IT IS ENOUGH AS GUSTS TO 91KTS
COMING DOWN THE PIPE. A LARGE WIDESPREAD OPEN ENDED DERECHO IS
NEARLY ENTERING THE CITY LIMITS WITH WIDE SPREAD GUSTS OVER 60KTS.
OUR RADAR IS NOW IN THE PURPLE HAZE LAST SCAN. LOOK FOR MANY
TERMINALS TO BE EFFECTED THIS EVENING WITH MANY AMENDMENTS YET TO
COME EVEN IN THE NEW ISSUANCE. WE WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...BUT THE
NON AMENDMENTS PERIOD IS NEARLY UPON US. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TOPS ARE WANNING NOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HEAT OF THE DAY. WHY
ALOFT WE ARE NE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...45KTS PEAK SO FAR AT KTXK.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLIX 232053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 232053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE AREA BUT AT MUCH LESSER OF A
DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE
BECOMING STRETCHED OUT AND STARTING TO LOSE ITS INTEGRITY. THIS IS
WHAT YOU/D EXPECT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST. JUST NOT MUCH ROOM FOR A
LOW TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BETWEEN ALL THESE. LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW
THIS WITH CONVECTION MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. MAYBE NOT BUT A LOT...BUT DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DECREASE.
HRRR IS SLIGHTLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE AT THE CURRENT TIME STAMP
AND IT SUGGESTS A QUICK DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE SUN SETS...
WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. OFFSHORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPS...BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO
THE CLIMO NORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN BERMUDA SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
SUB-LIKE CENTER BEING MAINTAINED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND 8-13 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSES WINDS TO BECOME
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  20
BTR  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  20
ASD  71  90  72  92 /  20  40  20  20
MSY  75  89  77  90 /  20  40  20  20
GPT  75  90  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  72  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 232040
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SVR MCS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AND CNTRL
AR...WITH THE CNTRL AR CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO THE BOW
ECHO RIDING S ALONG THE OK/AR LINE. SBCAPES ARE VERY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 4500-5000+ J/KG NOTED JUST S OF THIS
COMPLEX...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED OVER NRN/ERN OK INTO CNTRL AR. HAVE NOTICED A TREND OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW
AR...THUS HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION INTO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS
THIS MCS CONTINUES SWD BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THIS LINE
STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR PERHAPS AS FAR S AS I-30...IF NOT EVEN FARTHER
S TOWARDS TYR/GGG BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL
THIS MORNING ON THE SE KS CONVECTION AND REMAINS CONSISTENT
PROPAGATING THIS MCS SSWWD ACROSS NE TX/SW AR BEFORE
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EXTREME NW LA CAN/T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY.

AFTERWARDS...THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO
EXTREME SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR BY 12Z THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY
BACKDOORING SW INTO N LA/NE TX BY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFTERNOON PROGS
TUESDAY...WITH THIS BNDRY LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NEAR AND S OF IT OVER NE TX/N LA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING COULD BE AN ISSUE ALONG THIS BNDRY AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE TODAY FARTHER N...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO THE EFFECT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE ON THE CURRENT
AIR MASS...HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...THE SFC TROUGH MAY
FOCUS SCT CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME ERN TX/N LA. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT GIVEN THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING/POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM
THREAT...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMIZED GIVEN THE LACK
OF AN UPPER LEVEL FOCUS/SLIGHTLY WEAKER BULK SHEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS NEAR AND N OF IT...WITH ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

AFTERWARDS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL EXPAND E ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...DIALING
UP THE HEAT AND ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY OVER E TX THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL DIG SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY HELP TO USHER IN ANOTHER UNUSUAL JULY COOL FRONT LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FROPA...ALTHOUGH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SPILL SWD FOR THE MID AND LATE WEEK
TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT THOUGH IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THESE COOLER TEMPS LOOK TO
LINGER AS WE ENTER AUGUST.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /  20  30  10  10   0
MLU  72  93  70  93  73 /  20  30  10  10   0
DEQ  72  93  70  96  72 /  40  20  10  10   0
TXK  73  94  70  95  74 /  40  20  10  10   0
ELD  72  93  68  93  72 /  30  20  10  10   0
TYR  74  97  76  98  76 /  30  20  10  10   0
GGG  73  95  75  96  75 /  30  20  10  10   0
LFK  74  97  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231959
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KBPT  75  92  76  93  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
KAEX  72  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231812 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO INCLUDE SVR WATCH 431 FOR MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AS WELL AS LITTLE RIVER/SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW AR
THROUGH 01Z. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ISSUED AT 1137 AM FOR
REASONING.

15

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN AREA TAFS.
SOME SCATTERED TSRA ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 20Z AND 01Z
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I30 CORRIDOR...SO WE MAY HAVE TO AMD TXK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF THEY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. /11/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THIS IS
VISIBLY SHOWN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING LOTS OF
CLOUD AND CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE NEW ORLEANS REGION.
LOCALLY...WE ARE SEEING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR TO RULE.
MOISTURE IS PLENTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BECAUSE
THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS EAST AND SOUTH.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS MID AFTERNOON IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...
AFTERNOON SUMMER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALTHOUGH
MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON START. ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE
GOOD FLIGHT PLANS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  40  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73 /  40  20  30  10
KLFT  90  73  91  75 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231749
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THIS IS
VISIBLY SHOWN ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING LOTS OF
CLOUD AND CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE NEW ORLEANS REGION.
LOCALLY...WE ARE SEEING SOME BORDERLINE MVFR TO VFR CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO
VFR IN THESE AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR TO RULE.
MOISTURE IS PLENTY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND BECAUSE
THE TROUGH AXIS IS IN THE VICINITY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM LFT AND ARA TERMINALS EAST AND SOUTH.
HAVE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS MID AFTERNOON IN THESE LOCATIONS. ELSEWHERE...
AFTERNOON SUMMER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS WELL ALTHOUGH
MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON START. ALL IN ALL...PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE
GOOD FLIGHT PLANS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76 /  50  20  40  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73 /  40  20  30  10
KLFT  90  73  91  75 /  50  20  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...04
AVIATION...06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 231703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 231703
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD ABATE BY 01Z AND
REDEVELOP GENERALLY AFTER 16Z THURSDAY. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. DON/T BELIEVE THE SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE NRN ZONES. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS
INSTABILITY /THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE WEST AS IT OPENS UP AND WEAKENS. SO FAR THIS MORNING...A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE
CHARLES AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SOME STORMS IN THE OUTER WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE. INHERITED CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM KLCH SHOWED A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 80S. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT KEEPING THE SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST...WITH DI-
URNAL HEATING AND/OR BOUNDARIES FROM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST THAT
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START DEVELOPING AROUND 1 PM. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 23/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON
THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW TRACKING SWWRD INTO SE LA WILL INDUCE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION LATER TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT MLU FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS...ALLOWING FOR THE CHANCE
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING WWD TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY
FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD. OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE BEING OVER THE SERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE BETTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED UNDER THIS FEATURE ALOFT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.

MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 231141
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ON ITS WAY DOWN THE
TEXAS COAST AND WESTERN GULF REGION. TO THE NORTHWEST A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CO AND COVERED MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. TODAY/S WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRAILING
FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AND NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THE
EARLY HALF OF TODAY AND THEN INCREASE INTO AFTERNOON WITH HEATING
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
AS THE ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ADVANCES EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING INTO
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COVERS
THE FORECAST AREA AND REPOSITIONS OVER NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECT TO MOISTURE
IN THE GROUND TO DECREASE WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. DURING THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE FOUR
STATE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  72  96 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  92  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  93  70  94  68  95 /  30  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  20  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  10  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
GGG  93  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  20  10   0
LFK  94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230922
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
422 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
COLORADO. 5H TEMPS ARE -8C ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A RELATIVE COOL POCKET AROUND AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
GFS AND EURO INITIALIZED A VORT MAX OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A 2MB
DIFFERENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON A PLANER VIEW AT 12Z
SHOWED THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST EDGE HAS MADE IT TO LAFAYETTE
WITH 1.9 INCHES AT SLIDELL AND 1.5 INCHES AT LAKE CHARLES. 18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...A COOL 5H TEMP ALOFT AND
ELEVATED PW VALUES IN PLACE...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN LAND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT WEST
THROUGH TODAY AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TO THE LOW AND MID LAYER
NORTHERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST. THEREFORE...EXPECTED
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND A FEW STRONG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WEST OF I-55 AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
GUSTY WINDS FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OUT WEST WILL PROVIDE SOME DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
PW VALUES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 1.8 INCHES THURSDAY TO 1.5 TO
1.6 INCHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...5H TEMPS WILL RISE
TO -6C BY THEN. SOME SUPPRESSIVE FACTORS WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION A
BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...INTENSE SURFACE HEATING AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN STILL YIELD ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY. A FEW AREAS MAY REACH THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 18

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS CAN EB EXPECTED. THERE
MAY BE A ISLTD AREAS OF TEMPO MVFR VSBYS UNTIL SUNRISE BUT AFTER
THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RULE THE DAY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO LOOK
FOR MOST TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY AND
THROUGH THE AFTN. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FCST. MOST OF THE TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 10-12 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS EAST OF THE MS
DELTA WILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 3 FT OR LOWER. MDLS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER RARE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  70  93  70 /  40  20  30  20
BTR  92  72  94  73 /  50  20  30  20
ASD  90  71  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  90  75  91  77 /  30  30  30  20
GPT  89  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  89  71  91  72 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230906
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.


EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.



&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230906
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
ACROSS SOUTH LA THROUGH TODAY AND THU. WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER POPS FROM
KLCH EASTWARD. ACROSS SE TX A DRIER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP POPS
MORE SUPPRESSED TODAY YET THERE WILL STILL BE A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE BY AFTERNOON. THU THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN
YET STILL ALLOW FOR SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION INCREASING TEMPS AND LOWERING POPS.


EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME FINGERS WILL REMAIN CROSSED FOR LOWER
DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS UNTIL MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE FRONT TIMING AND STRENGTH.



&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF STORMS, THE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND AT
TIMES VRB TODAY AND THU. FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL NUDGE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF RETURNING THE
MORE TYPICAL SOUTH FLOW AT 5 TO 15KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  75  91  76  90 /  50  20  40  20  20
KBPT  91  75  91  75  91 /  40  20  40  20  20
KAEX  91  73  93  73  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  90  73  91  75  90 /  50  20  40  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230428
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1128 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MS LATE THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINNING ACROSS SE LA. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS DEBRIS CLOUD COVER
SPILLING OVER NE LA WITH THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING.

WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT BY 13Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BY 15-16Z
TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED WITH THE VCTS WORDING AT THE MLU TERMINAL
ONLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
910 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI COAST CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MIGRATION THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING AS FAR WEST AS NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI AND SHOWERS
SKIRTING LA SALLE AND GRANT PARISHES. DESPITE THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL STRAY SHOWER. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KLIX 230141
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.5
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE MAUREPAS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT/S SOUNDING WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PROFILE WAS FAIRLY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE
AND ABOVE 700MB. THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PROFILE WAS
1.94 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1750
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.7...THOUGH LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230141
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
841 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S SUCCESSFUL BALLOON LAUNCH REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.5
MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND BURST OVER LAKE MAUREPAS. WINDS
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT/S SOUNDING WERE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PROFILE WAS FAIRLY MOIST NEAR THE SURFACE
AND ABOVE 700MB. THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE PROFILE WAS
1.94 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1750
J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -5.7...THOUGH LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230057
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
757 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT AS A
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE LCH RADAR OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES. COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE MARSHES AROUND THIS
ZONE. CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. CLOSED AND STACKED LOW WILL BE OVER SE LA TNITE.
THIS LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230057
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
757 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EVIDENT AS A
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE LCH RADAR OVER THE COASTAL MARSHES. COULD
SEE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE MARSHES AROUND THIS
ZONE. CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL KEEP INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AS RADAR TRENDS SHOW ACTIVITY MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. CLOSED AND STACKED LOW WILL BE OVER SE LA TNITE.
THIS LOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EVANGELINE AND ST LANDRY PARISH. THE
STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU MIDNIGHT
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR TAF LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EVANGELINE AND ST LANDRY PARISH. THE
STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU MIDNIGHT
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR TAF LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EVANGELINE AND ST LANDRY PARISH. THE
STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU MIDNIGHT
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR TAF LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN EVANGELINE AND ST LANDRY PARISH. THE
STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALL TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THRU MIDNIGHT
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE FOR TAF LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  75  90  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KBPT  75  88  76  91  77 /  20  60  20  30  20
KAEX  70  90  73  94  74 /  30  40  20  30  10
KLFT  73  90  74  91  75 /  30  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 222350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SE LA/S MS IS HELPING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE MISS RIVER THIS EVENING. CHOSE NOT TO MENTION VCTS AT
THE MLU TERMINAL WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE ONE IT COMES INTO NE LA. OTHERWISE...JUST
DEALING WITH DEBRIS AT MLU THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...MADE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CU
FIELD WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 15-16Z ON WED ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. DID MAKE MENTION OF VCTS BEYOND 18Z AT MLU ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SE LA/S MS IS HELPING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE MISS RIVER THIS EVENING. CHOSE NOT TO MENTION VCTS AT
THE MLU TERMINAL WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE ONE IT COMES INTO NE LA. OTHERWISE...JUST
DEALING WITH DEBRIS AT MLU THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...MADE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CU
FIELD WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 15-16Z ON WED ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. DID MAKE MENTION OF VCTS BEYOND 18Z AT MLU ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SE LA/S MS IS HELPING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE MISS RIVER THIS EVENING. CHOSE NOT TO MENTION VCTS AT
THE MLU TERMINAL WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE ONE IT COMES INTO NE LA. OTHERWISE...JUST
DEALING WITH DEBRIS AT MLU THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...MADE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CU
FIELD WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 15-16Z ON WED ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. DID MAKE MENTION OF VCTS BEYOND 18Z AT MLU ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING. UPPER LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SE LA/S MS IS HELPING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
EAST OF THE MISS RIVER THIS EVENING. CHOSE NOT TO MENTION VCTS AT
THE MLU TERMINAL WITH THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO DISSIPATE ONE IT COMES INTO NE LA. OTHERWISE...JUST
DEALING WITH DEBRIS AT MLU THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...MADE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. CU
FIELD WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 15-16Z ON WED ACROSS ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. DID MAKE MENTION OF VCTS BEYOND 18Z AT MLU ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLIES. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222054
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY IS BECOMING HARDER TO FIND IN THE CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SFC THETA-E ANALYSIS DEPICTS IT HAVING
MIXED A TAF FARTHER WSW INTO NCNTRL TX...TO NEAR A LFK/JAS/LCH LINE AS
OF 20Z. IN FACT...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ABOUT 30NM S
OF LFK...BUT DRIFTING SW ACROSS SE TX. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR E HAS DRIFTED A TAF FARTHER W INTO
SRN MS...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING WIDELY SCT CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ON ITS W SIDE NEARING THE MS RIVER ATTM. THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FAR ERN ZONES OF NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SFC BNDRY BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHOULD SEE A MODERATION IN MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/SW AR.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT THOUGH COULD BE A SCT CU FIELD THAT MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NCNTRL LA...AS IT
DRIFTS W INTO SE LA.

WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER SE LA WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE SCT CONVECTION
FOCUS A LITTLE FARTHER W ACROSS THE ERN/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR S OVER CNTRL/SRN LA. THE SHORT TERM
PROGS ARE ALSO A BIT NOISY IN GENERATING CONVECTION TO OUR N OVER ERN
OK/NRN/WRN AR NEAR A WEAK SFC BNDRY THAT WILL SEEP S OVER THESE AREAS.
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BNDRY...AM NOT EXPECTING A PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT S ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE OUACHITAS. BUT DAYTIME
HEATING/AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PVA SINKING S AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS COULD INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREAS.

THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD SEEP S INTO SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD STILL FOCUS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN ZONES...WITH IT EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OVER
EXTREME NE TX/FAR SRN AR OR NRN LA. NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
ACTUALLY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...BUT THE
SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THAT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF THIS BNDRY MAY HELP YIELD LOCALLY STRONG POCKETS OF MLCAPES
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO N LA. THUS...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG AND OUTFLOW DOMINANT...HELPING TO ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE
BNDRY...WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR. THIS BNDRY MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL...WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AGAIN POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND FARTHER E TO THE MS RIVER AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND S OF THE BNDRY.

THE SE LA UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHEAR WWD THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER SE
TX/FAR SRN LA BENEATH THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE...THUS AM NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
NORM THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE FARTHER W
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS S ACROSS THE MS/OHIO/TN
VALLIES. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP NUDGE A WEAK COOL FRONT S INTO THE AREA
BY MONDAY...AND MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR SETUP TO OUR LAST MOST
RECENT FROPA WHICH BROUGHT HISTORICALLY COOL TEMPS TO THE REGION LATE
LAST WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  93  73  95  74 /   0  20  20  30  20
MLU  70  92  72  93  70 /  20  20  20  30  20
DEQ  67  93  72  93  69 /   0  20  30  30  20
TXK  69  93  73  94  71 /   0  20  30  30  20
ELD  67  93  71  93  68 /   0  20  30  30  10
TYR  72  94  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
GGG  70  93  73  96  75 /   0  20  20  30  20
LFK  73  94  73  96  75 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 222035
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE PREVIOUSLY DOMINANT
RIDGING PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RESTRICTED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK
DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST...A RESULTING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. FOR RIGHT NOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES SEASONAL AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL FURTHER AGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT IS REACHED.

DML/MMS

&&

.MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...WITH
A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  50  20  30  20
KBPT  76  90  76  91  77 /  20  50  20  30  20
KAEX  73  92  73  94  74 /  20  50  20  30  10
KLFT  74  90  74  91  75 /  20  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 222030
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
330 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...

DRIER AIR FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WORKING ITS WAY OUT
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED FIRST ON THE SOUTHSHORE EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA INCLUDING PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND
WASHINGTON PARISH AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO WANE AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND BEGINS TO
STRETCH OUT EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW AIDED BY THE
UPPER LOW BUT QUICKLY DROP BACK DOWN BELOW SUMMER NORMS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT WEEK MODELS STILL POINT TO AN ACTIVE JET PATTERN AND AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THAT FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER
MAKER IN OUR AREA IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MAY PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF EITHER FRONT HAS ANY
REAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF OUR NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AFTER 00Z SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN.  OVERALL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE AREA.  THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.  HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK FROM 16Z
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000-5000 FEET OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY.  OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...NO SIGNIFICANT
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  91  70  91 /  30  40  20  30
BTR  71  92  72  93 /  20  50  20  30
ASD  72  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
MSY  75  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
GPT  74  89  75  90 /  30  30  20  30
PQL  71  89  74  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/DSS...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...98/SO







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221731
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CEILING WILL
BE MAINLY JUST ABOVE 3K FEET AND VFR. STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CU AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 23/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  75  90  75  90 /  20  20  50  20  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  50  20  30
KAEX  93  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221731
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CEILING WILL
BE MAINLY JUST ABOVE 3K FEET AND VFR. STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CU AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 23/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  75  90  75  90 /  20  20  50  20  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  50  20  30
KAEX  93  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221731
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CEILING WILL
BE MAINLY JUST ABOVE 3K FEET AND VFR. STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CU AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 23/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  75  90  75  90 /  20  20  50  20  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  50  20  30
KAEX  93  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221731
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CEILING WILL
BE MAINLY JUST ABOVE 3K FEET AND VFR. STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. CU AND ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 23/04Z.
OVERNIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  75  90  75  90 /  20  20  50  20  30
KBPT  92  76  90  76  91 /  20  20  50  20  30
KAEX  93  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  50  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221721
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014


.AVIATION...
CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5000 FT..HAVE DEVELOPED AREAWIDE...SLIGHTLY
MORE PREVALENT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
SKC AFTER 23/00Z...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT
KMLU...KELD...AND KELD TERMINALS. MORE CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT LEAST AROUND KMLU AND KLFK
BEFORE 23/18Z. WIND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE
PERIOD./VII.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CU FIELD IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
LATE MORNING...JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY JUST W OF PRX...INTO ECNTRL TX NEAR A
JDD/GGG/LFK/JAS LINE INTO SCNTRL LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO NOT
MIX THIS BNDRY BACK NW AS IT DID MONDAY...BUT RATHER MAINTAIN SFC
RIDGING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRIFT W TOWARDS THE FAR SE BOOT OF LA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT
DID DROP POPS FARTHER W ACROSS WCNTRL LA/MUCH OF DEEP E TX...AS
DRIER AIR WILL MIX SW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
CONDITIONS TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE SCT CU
FIELD.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 15Z OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...WITH SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN WET GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  71  93  72  92 /   0  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  92  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  92  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  92  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  30  30
TYR  93  71  94  74  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  94  73  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221721
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014


.AVIATION...
CU FIELD WITH BASES 4-5000 FT..HAVE DEVELOPED AREAWIDE...SLIGHTLY
MORE PREVALENT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
SKC AFTER 23/00Z...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT
KMLU...KELD...AND KELD TERMINALS. MORE CU DEVELOPMENT
TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD CONVECTION AT LEAST AROUND KMLU AND KLFK
BEFORE 23/18Z. WIND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU THE
PERIOD./VII.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT CU FIELD IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
LATE MORNING...JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY JUST W OF PRX...INTO ECNTRL TX NEAR A
JDD/GGG/LFK/JAS LINE INTO SCNTRL LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO NOT
MIX THIS BNDRY BACK NW AS IT DID MONDAY...BUT RATHER MAINTAIN SFC
RIDGING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRIFT W TOWARDS THE FAR SE BOOT OF LA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT
DID DROP POPS FARTHER W ACROSS WCNTRL LA/MUCH OF DEEP E TX...AS
DRIER AIR WILL MIX SW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
CONDITIONS TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE SCT CU
FIELD.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 15Z OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...WITH SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN WET GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  71  93  72  92 /   0  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  92  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  92  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  92  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  30  30
TYR  93  71  94  74  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  94  73  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 221720
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KMSY...KHUM...AND KNEW
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS WORDING TO REFLECT
THIS RISK...AND WILL ISSUE ANY AMENDMENTS IF CONVECTION LOOKS TO
THREATEN A TERMINAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. AT WORST...THE
CONVECTION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO ANY
GIVEN TERMINAL. AT KGPT AND KASD...A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS CONVECTION COULD DRIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TOWARD THESE TERMINALS WHICH COULD IN TURN
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED VCTS WORDING
FOR THESE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE RISK...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH A GENERAL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 3000 TO 5000 FEET. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  91  70  91 /  20  40  20  40
BTR  72  94  72  94 /  20  40  20  40
ASD  72  91  72  90 /  20  40  20  40
MSY  74  91  76  90 /  20  40  30  30
GPT  75  89  76  90 /  20  40  20  40
PQL  72  91  71  90 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCT CU FIELD IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
LATE MORNING...JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY JUST W OF PRX...INTO ECNTRL TX NEAR A
JDD/GGG/LFK/JAS LINE INTO SCNTRL LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO NOT
MIX THIS BNDRY BACK NW AS IT DID MONDAY...BUT RATHER MAINTAIN SFC
RIDGING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRIFT W TOWARDS THE FAR SE BOOT OF LA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT
DID DROP POPS FARTHER W ACROSS WCNTRL LA/MUCH OF DEEP E TX...AS
DRIER AIR WILL MIX SW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
CONDITIONS TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE SCT CU
FIELD.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 15Z OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...WITH SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN WET GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  71  93  72  92 /   0  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  92  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  92  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  92  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  30  30
TYR  93  71  94  74  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  94  73  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCT CU FIELD IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS OF
LATE MORNING...JUST BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY JUST W OF PRX...INTO ECNTRL TX NEAR A
JDD/GGG/LFK/JAS LINE INTO SCNTRL LA. THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO NOT
MIX THIS BNDRY BACK NW AS IT DID MONDAY...BUT RATHER MAINTAIN SFC
RIDGING FROM THE MID-SOUTH REGION SW ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MOBILE BAY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DRIFT W TOWARDS THE FAR SE BOOT OF LA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR FAR ERN NCNTRL LA
PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT
DID DROP POPS FARTHER W ACROSS WCNTRL LA/MUCH OF DEEP E TX...AS
DRIER AIR WILL MIX SW ACROSS THESE AREAS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
CONDITIONS TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT GIVEN THE SCT CU
FIELD.

ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 15Z OBS ARE RUNNING IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S...AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TODAY...WITH SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN WET GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  71  93  72  92 /   0  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  92  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  92  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  92  69  93  71  93 /   0  10  20  30  30
TYR  93  71  94  74  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  94  73  94 /   0  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 22/12Z TAFS...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY BR/HZ CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS AT A FEW TERMINALS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCING THE REGION. A WWRD MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY
INDUCE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OUR FAR ERN/SERN SITES. FOG MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING VSBYS FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 22/12Z TAFS...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY BR/HZ CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS AT A FEW TERMINALS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCING THE REGION. A WWRD MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY
INDUCE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OUR FAR ERN/SERN SITES. FOG MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING VSBYS FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 221136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AFFECTING A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VCTS WAS LEFT IN THE TAFS. LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO NE AT 5 TO 7 KTS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  75  90  75  91 /  20  20  40  20  30
KBPT  93  76  90  75  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
KAEX  94  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  40  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AFFECTING A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VCTS WAS LEFT IN THE TAFS. LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO NE AT 5 TO 7 KTS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  75  90  75  91 /  20  20  40  20  30
KBPT  93  76  90  75  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
KAEX  94  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  40  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AFFECTING A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VCTS WAS LEFT IN THE TAFS. LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO NE AT 5 TO 7 KTS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  75  90  75  91 /  20  20  40  20  30
KBPT  93  76  90  75  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
KAEX  94  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  40  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221136
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS AFFECTING A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VCTS WAS LEFT IN THE TAFS. LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME NW TO NE AT 5 TO 7 KTS BY MID MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR VILLAGE
MILLS IN SE TX TO NEAR CAMERON LA AND THEN EAST ALONG THE LA
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...WHICH HAS HAD THE NET EFFECT OF TUGGING THE
BOUNDARY A BIT SOUTH TO ITS CURRENT POSITION.

THE HIRES NMM AND ARW BOTH DID A DECENT JOB OF CAPTURING THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SO POPS/WX GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE WEIGHTED
TO THEIR SOLUTIONS. CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD LARGELY BE TIED
TO THE FRONT AND OCCUR MOSTLY OFFSHORE...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EXPECTED INLAND WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THIS FEATURE IS CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON WED...THEN
TREK ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO SOUTH TX ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. MAINTAINED
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WED AND THU. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICTING A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE. THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DIGGING EAST COAST TROF SENDING ANOTHER FRONT TWD
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

MARINE...
THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
LITTLE...WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  92  75  90  75  91 /  20  20  40  20  30
KBPT  93  76  90  75  92 /  40  20  40  20  30
KAEX  94  73  92  73  94 /  20  20  40  20  30
KLFT  91  74  90  74  91 /  20  20  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities