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000
FXUS64 KLCH 061235
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT/SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING SERN TX ATTM.
EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE DEPARTING TWO OR SO HOURS LATER. THUNDER HAS
BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC WITH THIS ACTIVITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT NOT LOOKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
ATTM. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REMAINING SITES
BY NOON-TIME. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE/BOUNDARY
AND SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.

WITH A COOL START...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A GOOD BIT FOR MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME FLAGS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

AFTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  32  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  55  35  59  42 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  57  35  60  41 /  30  10   0   0
BPT  58  36  61  41 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 061235
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT/SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING SERN TX ATTM.
EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE DEPARTING TWO OR SO HOURS LATER. THUNDER HAS
BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC WITH THIS ACTIVITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT NOT LOOKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
ATTM. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REMAINING SITES
BY NOON-TIME. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE/BOUNDARY
AND SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.

WITH A COOL START...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A GOOD BIT FOR MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME FLAGS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

AFTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  32  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  55  35  59  42 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  57  35  60  41 /  30  10   0   0
BPT  58  36  61  41 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 061235
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
635 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ALOFT/SFC BOUNDARY CROSSING SERN TX ATTM.
EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE SWRN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO BEFORE DEPARTING TWO OR SO HOURS LATER. THUNDER HAS
BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC WITH THIS ACTIVITY...CERTAINLY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BUT NOT LOOKING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION
ATTM. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...
WITH JUST SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REMAINING SITES
BY NOON-TIME. THEREAFTER DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA IN WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE/BOUNDARY
AND SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.

WITH A COOL START...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A GOOD BIT FOR MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME FLAGS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

AFTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  32  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  55  35  59  42 /  60  10   0   0
LFT  57  35  60  41 /  30  10   0   0
BPT  58  36  61  41 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 061215
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LGT TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN...PUSHING
EAST ACROSS NE TX. THIS PRECIP SENDING CIGS INTO LOW MVFR TO
OCNL HIGH MVFR CAT. THIS AREA INCLUDES KTYR...KGGG...KLFK...WITH
LOWER CIGS AND RAIN APPROACHING KSHV. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
EXPECT ONLY MID LVL CLOUD DKECKS. THIS RAIN AREA IS INDUCING
VRBL WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER 06/18Z...EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO
DIMINISH...AND MOSTLY VFR SKC THRU 07/12Z FCST CYCLE EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER CIRRUS. WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LGT AS WELL
AREAWIDE AFTER 06/18Z. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WHERE GROUND IS WET...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS VSBY NOT
EXPECTED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS MOVING EAST INTO TYLER AND
JACKSONVILLE. DEBATABLE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT CORSICANA OB REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWS IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS REACH THE LOWER
60S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AREA ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  33  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  54  33  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  53  34  59  36 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  54  32  59  37 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  53  34  62  37 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  52  32  61  36 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  54  32  62  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 061215
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LGT TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN...PUSHING
EAST ACROSS NE TX. THIS PRECIP SENDING CIGS INTO LOW MVFR TO
OCNL HIGH MVFR CAT. THIS AREA INCLUDES KTYR...KGGG...KLFK...WITH
LOWER CIGS AND RAIN APPROACHING KSHV. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
EXPECT ONLY MID LVL CLOUD DKECKS. THIS RAIN AREA IS INDUCING
VRBL WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER 06/18Z...EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO
DIMINISH...AND MOSTLY VFR SKC THRU 07/12Z FCST CYCLE EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER CIRRUS. WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LGT AS WELL
AREAWIDE AFTER 06/18Z. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WHERE GROUND IS WET...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS VSBY NOT
EXPECTED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS MOVING EAST INTO TYLER AND
JACKSONVILLE. DEBATABLE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT CORSICANA OB REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWS IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS REACH THE LOWER
60S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AREA ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  33  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  54  33  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  53  34  59  36 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  54  32  59  37 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  53  34  62  37 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  52  32  61  36 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  54  32  62  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 061215
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LGT TO OCNL MODERATE RAIN...PUSHING
EAST ACROSS NE TX. THIS PRECIP SENDING CIGS INTO LOW MVFR TO
OCNL HIGH MVFR CAT. THIS AREA INCLUDES KTYR...KGGG...KLFK...WITH
LOWER CIGS AND RAIN APPROACHING KSHV. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
EXPECT ONLY MID LVL CLOUD DKECKS. THIS RAIN AREA IS INDUCING
VRBL WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. AFTER 06/18Z...EXPECT AREA OF RAIN TO
DIMINISH...AND MOSTLY VFR SKC THRU 07/12Z FCST CYCLE EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER CIRRUS. WINDS TO BE MOSTLY LGT AS WELL
AREAWIDE AFTER 06/18Z. SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WHERE GROUND IS WET...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS VSBY NOT
EXPECTED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS MOVING EAST INTO TYLER AND
JACKSONVILLE. DEBATABLE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT CORSICANA OB REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWS IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS REACH THE LOWER
60S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AREA ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  33  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  54  33  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  53  34  59  36 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  54  32  59  37 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  53  34  62  37 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  52  32  61  36 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  54  32  62  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 060931
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST TX IS ON ITS WAY. THIS
WILL SIMPLY BE A REINFORCEMENT TO THE DRY COOL AIR THAT IS ALREADY
IN PLACE. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLYL MOVE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY THING THAT WILL BE SEEN FROM THIS MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS FOR
THOSE EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA. CLOUD DECK MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO
GET A FEW SHOWERS OUT OF THE FRONT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ATCHAFALAYA. DEEP DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE STUBBORN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN MISS AND SE LA. SO ANY CLOUDS THAT MANAGE TO GET TO THE
MISS RIVER WILL NOT MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER EAST. WE WILL TRANSITION
RAPIDLY TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A
LITTLE MORE OF A POLAR FEEL TO IT. IT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY ON MONDAY AND SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY NOON
MONDAY. AGAIN THE ONLY THINGS THAT WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE FROM
THIS WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS...DP DROP FROM 40S TO 20S...AND NW WINDS
WILL RISE QUITE A BIT MOSTLY OVER MARINE AREAS. THIS FRONT WILL
BE BRIDGED BY A FAST MOVING RIDGE DROPPING FROM THE NORTH CAUSING
ANY CLOUDINESS TO DECAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
BUT SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE MOST PART MONDAY
EVENING. COOL DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WITH US THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARD US BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AFTER THIS ONE. BY THAT TIME WE MAY BE LOOKING FOR A BIT OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A GOOD PART OF MONDAY...TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH WE
COULD SEE SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE
WARNINGS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT ALL WITH WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS AND ABOVE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&
98

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  54  31  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  34  59  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  56  35  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  56  40  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  37  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  55  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060925
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH.

WITH A COOL START...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL
RE-ENFORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE A GOOD BIT FOR MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SOME FLAGS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY A WIND ADVISORY FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS.

AFTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  32  60  38 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  55  35  59  42 /  50  10   0   0
LFT  57  35  60  41 /  20  10   0   0
BPT  58  36  61  41 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060817
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
217 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS MOVING EAST INTO TYLER AND
JACKSONVILLE. DEBATABLE WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND ACROSS ALL AREAS...BUT CORSICANA OB REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO LOWS IN
THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS REACH THE LOWER
60S ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT TO BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AREA ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  33  61  38 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  54  33  60  38 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  53  34  59  36 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  54  32  59  37 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  53  34  62  37 /  50  10   0   0
GGG  52  32  61  36 /  60  10   0   0
LFK  54  32  62  38 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060556
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF CLOUDS E W/ INCREASING LOW AND
MID DECKS FROM THE W AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER S OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KSHV AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH.
IFR/CIG TEMPOED FOR KTYR WITH MVFR KGGG/KLFK. OUR SFC WIND IS
CALM WITH SE FLOW EXTENDING UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RRESUME LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN W/ SKC.
/24/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  10  30  10   0
MLU  34  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  28  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  35  52  32  59 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  29  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060556
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF CLOUDS E W/ INCREASING LOW AND
MID DECKS FROM THE W AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER S OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KSHV AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH.
IFR/CIG TEMPOED FOR KTYR WITH MVFR KGGG/KLFK. OUR SFC WIND IS
CALM WITH SE FLOW EXTENDING UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RRESUME LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN W/ SKC.
/24/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  10  30  10   0
MLU  34  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  28  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  35  52  32  59 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  29  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99



000
FXUS64 KSHV 060556
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF CLOUDS E W/ INCREASING LOW AND
MID DECKS FROM THE W AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER S OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS
FOR KSHV AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH.
IFR/CIG TEMPOED FOR KTYR WITH MVFR KGGG/KLFK. OUR SFC WIND IS
CALM WITH SE FLOW EXTENDING UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL RRESUME LATE SAT AND CONTINUE INTO SUN W/ SKC.
/24/



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  10  30  10   0
MLU  34  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  28  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  35  52  32  59 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  29  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC CURRENTLY...BUT MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FM
W-E OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO PREV TAF
PKG WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PD. A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED TO REACH BPT BY 12Z...WITH PREVAILING -RA FM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHRA TO LCH WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED FURTHER
EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FM W-E SAT EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S DEPENDING
ON LCTN. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOWARDS SUNRISE
WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHWR OR TWO ON SATURDAY. THINGS CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY WITH TEMPS HOLDING PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKC CURRENTLY...BUT MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FM
W-E OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO PREV TAF
PKG WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PD. A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED TO REACH BPT BY 12Z...WITH PREVAILING -RA FM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES EAST...POSSIBLY
BRINGING A FEW SHRA TO LCH WITH LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED FURTHER
EAST. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FM W-E SAT EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S DEPENDING
ON LCTN. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOWARDS SUNRISE
WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHWR OR TWO ON SATURDAY. THINGS CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY WITH TEMPS HOLDING PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

K. KUYPER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 060522
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1122 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 060433
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
THIS EVE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S DEPENDING
ON LCTN. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO MOVE IN TOWARDS SUNRISE
WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHWR OR TWO ON SATURDAY. THINGS CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY WITH TEMPS HOLDING PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

K. KUYPER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060323
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
923 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY. IN FACT...WE ARE ALREADY AT FCST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 03Z THIS
EVENING.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING ELEVATED RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT...THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL HAVE TO
SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AND OUR 00Z SOUNDING THIS EVENING
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. LATEST OOZ RUNS OF THE
NAM AND LATEST HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP WILL BEGIN MOVING
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MORE SO IN THE 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME BUT SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ITS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS FRAME.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPS THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THESE SAME
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH 12Z SAT.
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE 12Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
BUT DO NOT FEEL LIKE THIS WILL BE A BIG EVENT...OR EVEN MARGINAL
FOR THAT MATTER BEFORE TEMPS WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING.

ALL OTHER GRIDS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...UPDATED FORECAST OUT
SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KSHV
AND VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  10  30  10   0
MLU  34  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  28  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  35  52  32  59 /  10  20  10   0
ELD  29  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINTY SHOWERS FOR KSHV AND
VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 060033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINTY SHOWERS FOR KSHV AND
VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 060033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...EXITING AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SKC
THIS EVENING. THEN INCREASING MID DECKS FROM THE WEST AND VFR LOW
CLOUD FM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM OVER SW OK
ATTM. OVERCAST DECKS BY DAYBREAK WITH VICINTY SHOWERS FOR KSHV AND
VFR -RA FOR TX TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK TOWARD LUNCH. OUR SFC
WINDS ARE SE 5-10KTS AND EXTEND UP FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET BEFORE
VEERING AROUND TO S/SW/W INTO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH SKC. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
549 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS/STLT IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITH HIGH CLOUDS NW OF THE AREA STREAMING EAST AND MID LVL
CLOUDS OVER S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST SPREADING NE. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-6 KFT RANGE. A FEW SHRA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...MAINLY NEAR THE BPT/LCH TERMINALS WHILE
DRIER AIR FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LT/VRBL TONIGHT....GRADUALLY BCMG MORE NELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24



000
FXUS64 KSHV 052208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08




000
FXUS64 KSHV 052208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 052208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING AROUND THE BACK
WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME WARMING TO THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
SHIFTED TO SOUTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE FOUR
STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. A
SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS
ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM ALONG
WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING BRIEFLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND MAY PROVIDE
A PERIOD OF A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. BRIEF RIDGING ON THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE START
OF THE WORKWEEK...A LARGE AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR IN STORE FOR THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK. FOR LAST WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /06/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  53  33  61 /  20  30  10   0
MLU  32  52  32  60 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  30  53  29  59 /  10  20   0   0
TXK  34  52  32  59 /  20  20  10   0
ELD  33  52  31  59 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  36  53  34  63 /  40  40  10   0
GGG  35  53  32  62 /  30  40  10   0
LFK  35  56  32  63 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08




000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35



000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35




000
FXUS64 KLIX 052133
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION TONIGHT AFTER WINDS ABATE WITH
SUNSET. SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE A LIGHT FREEZE MOST LOCATIONS
AWAY FROM TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN THE
MORE INTERIOR LOCALES. A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A RAPIDLY MOVING
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS THAT
SKIRTS THE COAST TOWARDS THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO WARRANT 10-20 PERCENT MENTION...BUT REST OF AREA TO REMAIN DRY.
A SIMILAR LIGHT FREEZE NIGHT AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF CANADIAN COLD AIR EXPECTING TO
BUILD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES TO MAINTAIN VERY DRY CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
MASS TO IMPART AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GUSTINESS ON MARDI GRAS DAY
THAT COULD MAKE THINGS FIT A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE FROM A WIND CHILL
STANDPOINT...BUT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP EASE THE BITE. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MODERATES OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
YET ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. IT MAY BE
WORTH NOTING THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY OVERACHIEVE ON THE
LOW END DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
HAVE SOME RAMIFICATIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING DUE TO VERY LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINING WITH HIGH WINDS AND GENERAL GUSTINESS. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SETTLING FROM HIGHER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE STATE SATURDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SURGE INTO THE NORTH
GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SECOND SURGE TAKES PLACE MONDAY
TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLANES STATES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  29  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  30  55  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  31  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  38  55  39  59 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  32  55  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  29  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
35




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 052108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT DAY ONGOING UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE REGION YIELDING LIGHTER WINDS THAN
YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 DEGREES...GIVING US RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. MAINTAINING POPS WITHIN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY AND GENERALLY EXPECTING UNDER 1/4 INCH WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY...SUNNY AND PLEASANT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES TEMPORARILY REESTABLISHED. WILL START OUT
SOMEWHAT CHILLY...BUT WARM UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AREA-WIDE.

SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR INCOMING MONDAY AS A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN UPPER LOW ADVANCING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST. FEATURE EVOLVES INTO A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...WHILE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW THE NORM FOR THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF THE WORK-WEEK. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THEN REMAINS DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY. A BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. A SECOND AND MUCH
STRONGER DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  33  52  32  60 /  10  30  10   0
LCH  35  53  35  61 /  10  40  10   0
LFT  35  54  35  60 /  10  30  10   0
BPT  39  55  37  62 /  10  40  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051738
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1138 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. SHORTWAVE TROF
DIGGING WEST OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES PROGGED TO PIVOT EASTWARD AND
TRANSLATE THROUGH TX TONIGHT. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND
AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT BY EARLY MORNING...SO
INSERTED A LOWERING VFR CIG AT KBPT WITH PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN
FOR THE LAST 6 HRS OF THIS FCST PERIOD. EFFECT ON TERMINALS
FARTHER EAST A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN...SO LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...IN THE PROCESS OF A NICE WARMUP AFTER A RATHER
CHILLY AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARMUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVERHEAD. DID A MINOR TWEAK TO
HOURLY TEMP/DP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...OTHERWISE ALL LOOKS
GOOD AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN THANKS TO PASSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AT KLCH/KBPT TODAY
WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO POOL LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...HOWEVER FOR NOW CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN
VFR.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  30  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051730
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THIS WILL
NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON TERMINAL OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051655
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WAS NOTED OVER PARTS
OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS IN
THE GRIDDED DATA. ALSO BUMPED UP THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND HAVE ADDED SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT ZONE MAY NOT SHOW A CHANGE IN THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAILED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AND THE POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  54  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  53  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  53  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  52  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  56  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  55  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  56  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051655
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WAS NOTED OVER PARTS
OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS IN
THE GRIDDED DATA. ALSO BUMPED UP THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND HAVE ADDED SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT ZONE MAY NOT SHOW A CHANGE IN THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAILED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AND THE POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  54  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  53  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  53  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  52  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  56  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  55  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  56  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051655
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WAS NOTED OVER PARTS
OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS IN
THE GRIDDED DATA. ALSO BUMPED UP THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND HAVE ADDED SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT ZONE MAY NOT SHOW A CHANGE IN THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAILED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AND THE POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  54  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  53  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  53  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  52  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  56  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  55  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  56  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051655
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WAS NOTED OVER PARTS
OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS IN
THE GRIDDED DATA. ALSO BUMPED UP THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND HAVE ADDED SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT ZONE MAY NOT SHOW A CHANGE IN THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAILED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AND THE POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  54  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  53  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  53  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  52  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  56  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  55  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  56  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051655
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1055 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA LATE THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF
WEST TEXAS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WAS NOTED OVER PARTS
OF TEXAS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA BUT EXPECTING THEM TO
LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS IN
THE GRIDDED DATA. ALSO BUMPED UP THE EXPECTED HIGHS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE. SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
AHEAD OF THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND HAVE ADDED SOME
CLOUD COVER BUT ZONE MAY NOT SHOW A CHANGE IN THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAILED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE PAN HANDLES
OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY AND THE POSSIBLE MIX OF FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  54  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  53  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  53  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  52  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  56  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  55  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  56  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/08/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER KS TO CONTINUE MOVING E THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND NE LA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO SCT AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WELL AS SOME WIDELY SCT AREAS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY DURING SATURDAY MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

BY LATE SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E AND
NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION CLEARS OUR SKIES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.
/VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE PROCESS OF A NICE WARMUP AFTER A RATHER
CHILLY AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES
TO WARMUP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVERHEAD. DID A MINOR TWEAK TO
HOURLY TEMP/DP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...OTHERWISE ALL LOOKS
GOOD AND NOT ANTICIPATING ANY UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN THANKS TO PASSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AT KLCH/KBPT TODAY
WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO POOL LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...HOWEVER FOR NOW CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN
VFR.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  30  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 051335
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
735 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING BALLOON OBSERVATION REVEALED WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW...BONE DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.09 INCH IS WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS
PRESENT FROM SURF TO 6KFT THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW FROM 6KFT TO
50KFT. STEEP INVERSIONS ARE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE TO 1500 FEET
AND ANOTHER 7500 FEET TO 9600 FEET. ALL IN ALL...DRY VERY STABLE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051216
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
616 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN THANKS TO PASSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS AT KLCH/KBPT TODAY
WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH. MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO POOL LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT...HOWEVER FOR NOW CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN
VFR.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  20  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 051118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 051118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016


.AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TO CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR 06/06Z...WHEN
MID LVL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. VFR CIGS
STREAMING EASTWARD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES BEFORE
06/12Z ACROSS NE TX WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE. NEAR CALM WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S-SE AROUND 5 KTS BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE NIGHT./VII/. BRIEF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AM AT
KMLU./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  53  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  52  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  52  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  51  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  55  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  54  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  55  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 051024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  20  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 051024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  20  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 051024
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES, NEAR CALM WINDS, AND A DRY AIRMASS HAS
LEAD TEMPS TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER ACADIANA. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN PUTTING TEMPS IN THE MID 20S IN
PORTIONS OF CENLA AND INTERIOR SETX.

CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE EAST AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY WINDS WILL
BECOME EAST THEN SE THROUGH THE DAY SOMEWHAT INCREASING MOISTURE
DURING THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ALSO
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION PAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. A DECENT AMOUNT OF LIFT
IS NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND HALF AN INCH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
LIMITED AS WELL. THIS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM EARLY SAT MORNING TO AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH
THE COOL AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAY
MIX IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP FROM THE EAST TX LAKES TO CEN LA,
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A NOVELTY AT BEST IF ANY DO OCCUR.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT IT WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP WITH TEMPS
FALLING FROM THE HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 50S
IN THE EVENING TO THE 40S BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP SET UP A LARGER EAST COAST TROF KEEPING OUR
REGION IN A DEEP NORTH TO NW FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SET UP ANOTHER FREEZE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE PASSES THE AREA. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20   0
LCH  58  35  56  34 /   0  10  20  10
LFT  55  36  57  35 /   0   0  20  10
BPT  58  38  59  37 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050915
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE AGAIN CHANGED WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. BASICALLY THEY
HAVE SLOWED THINGS DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS AND NOW HAVE THE FIRST COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AROUND NOON SATURDAY AND
EXITING JUST AFTER DARK. THE SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH JUST
BEFORE DAYLIGHT MONDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MARINE ISSUES THERE
SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH EITHER FRONT. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTICED AS THEY ROLL THROUGH THE AREA ALONG EACH FRONT. THE FIRST
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE A FEW RAIN DROPS WITH IT BUT ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO FALL SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE MISS RIVER.

.LONG TERM...
A DEEP MID AND UPPER THERMAL TROUGH MOST NOTEABLE AT ABOUT 500MB
WILL DIG SOUTHWARD MONDAY. A STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WILL DENOTE THE
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS MOSTLY ALONG AND COLDER THAN
THE -25C @500. THE FCASTED POSITION OF THIS TROUGH HAS SLIPPED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS. DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST IMPORTANT IN PRODUCING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POST-FRONTAL TROUGHING. THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR ANY PRECIP
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MISS TO CENTRAL ALA FOR MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
ANOTHER DEEP DRY AIR COLUMN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA THOUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AFTER TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS WELL OUTSIDE THE TEMPORAL DOMAIN OF THIS
FCAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 35

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BEGINNING TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
CURRENT PLAN IS TO ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND
REPLACE IT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR REACHES
THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT ONE WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH...COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS...MOST LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  30  53  31 /   0   0  10   0
BTR  55  32  55  33 /   0   0  20   0
ASD  54  35  55  35 /   0   0  10   0
MSY  52  39  56  39 /   0   0  10   0
GPT  53  36  55  37 /   0   0  10   0
PQL  54  34  55  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050815
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  55  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  55  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  54  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  54  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  57  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  56  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  58  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050815
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  55  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  55  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  54  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  54  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  57  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  56  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  58  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050815
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  55  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  55  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  54  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  54  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  57  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  56  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  58  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050815
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S AREAWIDE.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER-TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIRMASS
TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AT 900 MB ABOVE
FREEZING.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING EAST...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  35  54  33 /   0  10  30  10
MLU  55  32  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  55  30  54  29 /   0  10  20   0
TXK  54  35  53  32 /   0  10  20  10
ELD  54  33  53  31 /   0  10  10  10
TYR  57  37  54  34 /   0  30  30  10
GGG  56  35  54  32 /   0  30  40  10
LFK  58  36  57  32 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050557
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW HAS DECOUPLED TO VRB03KT OR
CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT. OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS CONTINUE
NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL200 WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE ASIDE FROM S/SW
WIND...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THAT AFTERNOON. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING IS SET UP FOR NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING...WITH
LOWS ALREADY HEADING INTO WELL INTO THE 30S. SHOULD SEE OTHER 10
DEGREE FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
NO CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050557
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW HAS DECOUPLED TO VRB03KT OR
CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT. OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS CONTINUE
NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL200 WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE ASIDE FROM S/SW
WIND...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THAT AFTERNOON. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING IS SET UP FOR NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING...WITH
LOWS ALREADY HEADING INTO WELL INTO THE 30S. SHOULD SEE OTHER 10
DEGREE FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
NO CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050557
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW HAS DECOUPLED TO VRB03KT OR
CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT. OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS CONTINUE
NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL200 WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE ASIDE FROM S/SW
WIND...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A
FEW SHOWERS DURING THAT AFTERNOON. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING IS SET UP FOR NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING...WITH
LOWS ALREADY HEADING INTO WELL INTO THE 30S. SHOULD SEE OTHER 10
DEGREE FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
NO CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

UPDATE...
CLR SKIES... DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE NO ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050536
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LT
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

UPDATE...
CLR SKIES... DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE NO ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 050530
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS AT KNEW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  53  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  31  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  34  54  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  39  52  39  56 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  35  53  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  35  54  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
958 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
CLR SKIES... DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE NO ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455-470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ472.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050344
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
944 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016


.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING IS SET UP FOR NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING...WITH
LOWS ALREADY HEADING INTO WELL INTO THE 30S. SHOULD SEE OTHER 10
DEGREE FALL IN OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO MAINLY THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
NO CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  27  57  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  26  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  49  22  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  48  25  54  35 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  48  23  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  28  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  51  26  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  53  27  59  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050328
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
928 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
BRINGS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. A
REPEAT FOR FRIDAY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE GULF STATES SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PRESENT COLD WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN LATER TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE LIKELY TO FLIRT WITH
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH NIGHT BUT MODIFIED
BY TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES FARTHER SOUTH. A DRY PATTERN TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE HEART OF THE BUSY MARDI GRAS
WEEKEND AND ASH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTLING TO LOWER LEVELS FRIDAY. POLAR SURGE OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THAT MAY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY BEFORE LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  53  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  31  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  34  54  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  39  52  39  56 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  35  53  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  35  54  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 050328
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
928 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
BRINGS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. A
REPEAT FOR FRIDAY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM...
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE GULF STATES SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PRESENT COLD WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN LATER TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE LIKELY TO FLIRT WITH
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH NIGHT BUT MODIFIED
BY TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES FARTHER SOUTH. A DRY PATTERN TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE HEART OF THE BUSY MARDI GRAS
WEEKEND AND ASH WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTLING TO LOWER LEVELS FRIDAY. POLAR SURGE OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THAT MAY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY BEFORE LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  53  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  31  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  34  54  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  39  52  39  56 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  35  53  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  35  54  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-
     534.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ532-534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 050024
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050024
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050024
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050024
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 050024
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE ARKLATEX...SKC AND NW FLOW 5-10KT ON THE SFC WILL
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TO VRB03KT OR CALM WITH A SFC HIGH NEAR KATT.
OUR LOW LEVEL CLIMB WINDS WILL CONTINUE NW 10-30KTS...INCREASING
TO BETTER THAN 100KTS BY FL240 WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS RIGHT
OVERHEAD. LITTLE CHANGE INTO TOMORROW...BUT INTO THE WEEKEND WE/LL
SEE SOME QUICKLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS WINDS ALOFT SLACK AND BACK
TO SW DURING THAT TIME WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 050001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 050001
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF THRU THE EVE HRS. VFR FLIGHT
RULES THRU SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$


AVIATION...19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042225
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
/11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11



000
FXUS64 KSHV 042225
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
/11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 042225
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
425 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AXIS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RESIDED ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. IN ITS WAKE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REACHED FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXPANDED
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. VERY FEW CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER
TEXAS AND AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IN WAKE OF THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...MAINLY
HIGH AND POSSIBLY SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE
OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP PROVIDE MOISTURE AND
HELP PROVIDE LIFT AND AID WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EXCEPT FOR PARTS ALONG THE RED
RIVER OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MIXED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO MID MORNING SATURDAY. AMOUNTS OF ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT
AND NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DUE TO GROUND WARMTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
UP TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID DURING THE REMAINDER OF
SATURDAY UNTIL THE RAINS COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT RETURN OVER THE REGION KEEPING A
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH NO RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR
EARLY WEEK. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. THESE WINDS ALONG WITH THE
DRY DEW POINTS WILL KEEP VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR THE DRY FUELS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER THAN
NORMAL READINGS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE
AND THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST DOMINATING OVER THE AREA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
/11/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  27  57  35  55 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  26  55  31  52 /   0   0  10  20
DEQ  22  55  30  54 /   0   0  20  20
TXK  25  54  35  53 /   0   0  20  20
ELD  23  54  32  52 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  28  57  36  55 /   0   0  20  20
GGG  26  56  35  55 /   0   0  20  20
LFK  27  59  35  59 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/11




000
FXUS64 KLIX 042137
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
BRINGS OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT. A
REPEAT FOR FRIDAY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
ON TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.

.LONG TERM...
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BRING POLAR
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE GULF STATES SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PRESENT COLD WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY BEFORE
SETTLING DOWN LATER TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS ARE LIKELY TO FLIRT WITH
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE MORE INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH NIGHT BUT MODIFIED
BY TIDAL LAKE INFLUENCES FARTHER SOUTH. A DRY PATTERN TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE HEART OF THE BUSY MARDI GRAS
WEEKEND AND ASH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVU CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE MAINTAINED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SETTLING TO LOWER LEVELS FRIDAY. POLAR SURGE OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THAT MAY
LINGER THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY BEFORE LOWERING SIGNIFICANTLY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH GULF MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING ON MISSISSIPPI/PEARL RIVERS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  53  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  31  55  32  55 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  34  54  34  55 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  39  52  39  56 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  35  53  36  55 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  35  54  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KLCH 042026
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
226 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SUNNY SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. DAYTIME HEATING IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR
SOME MIXING TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AND BECOME VERY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL BRING ABOUT
VERY GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THUS COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS...SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND LIKELY PATCHY
FROST. TEMPERATURES IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE LOCAL CRITERIA FOR HARD FREEZE. WITH
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS FOR
PLANTS...PEOPLE...AND PETS.

NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO DROP DOWN FROM THE PLAINS
AND HELP BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAINLY LACKING...AND MOISTURE STILL NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. MEAN RH VALUES ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES ARE FROM ABOVE 85H TO 50H OR
ROUGHLY FROM 6K TO 15K FEET. PWAT VALUES JUST REACH ABOVE 0.50
INCHES AND WITH DRY LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAY BE DIFFICULT TO
GET ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES EVENTUALLY HELP CARVE OUT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PLACE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DEEP AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.

IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE RATHER COOL
DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS DURING THE MARDI GRAS HOLIDAY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MIXING AND RATHER BREEZY AFTERNOONS.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND TO THE EAST...ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR PARTS OF THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF CAMERON THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

LIGHT EAST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THAT
WILL AGAIN BRING MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY MONDAY TO REINFORCE THE MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  28  56  32  57 /   0   0  10  20
LCH  30  57  35  59 /   0   0  10  20
LFT  31  56  35  58 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  31  59  38  61 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR GMZ472.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING WITH STRONG AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. VFR AHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN...THUS VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED NRLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO A LINGERING GRADIENT AND CAA.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER
CLEAR STAR FILLED SKIES. HOWEVER EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIR MASS, TEMPS
WILL TUMBLE TO FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO HARD FREEZE CRITERIA AT
SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS FROM THE EAST TX LAKES THROUGH CEN LA.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR DAY FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
SET UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO MID DAY.

A SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY, BUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK.

MARINE...THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER GULF WATERS AND TO ABOUT 20 KTS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A EAST TO SE FLOW LASTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NE WINDS WILL REBUILD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUT
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING AGAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  28  56  32 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  55  31  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  33  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  57  32  59  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
     CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ450.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVEN

&&

.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  27  57  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  53  26  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  51  22  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  50  25  54  35 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  50  23  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  54  28  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  53  26  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  55  27  59  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVEN

&&

.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  27  57  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  53  26  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  51  22  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  50  25  54  35 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  50  23  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  54  28  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  53  26  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  55  27  59  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11



000
FXUS64 KSHV 041745
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1145 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
BE THE COMMON CLOUD CONDITION THEME TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AT ARKLATEX
TERMINALS...BUT WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

ELEVEN

&&

.PREVIOUS POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  27  57  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  53  26  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  51  22  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  50  25  54  35 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  50  23  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  54  28  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  53  26  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  55  27  59  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 041611
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1011 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION TODAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. THIS
COVERED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE 05/12Z TIME FRAME WITH VERY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW MID LVL CLOUDS POSSIBLE DURG THE
DAYTIME...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM NORTH TX. LGT NW WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS BTWN 16-18Z...BUT WILL
BECOME LGT BY 05/00Z. LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND DRY GROUND WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION...DESPITE EXCELLENT RADIATION COOLING THU
NIGHT./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING ANCHORED OVER WCNTRL
TX THIS MORNING...WITH NW WINDS AHEAD OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE DRY ADVECTION SPILLING SE INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...LONGWAVE TROUGHING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING...WITH BANDS OF AC NOTED OVER NW TX BENEATH THE APEX OF
THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...THIS
AC SHOULD CONTINUE E AS WELL...BUT THIN AS IT DOES SO. THE SFC
RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT ESE ACROSS TX TODAY...AND INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THE COLDEST TEMPS THIS WEEK AS WINDS
BEGIN TO DECOUPLE LATER TODAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THIS AFTERNOON THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY...WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMMENCES WITH THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE
TRENDED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT BELOW MOS GIVEN THE ABNORMALLY LOW
DEWPOINTS/LIGHT WINDS...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RECOVER BACK TO
NEAR CLIMO FRIDAY AS LIGHT SSE WINDS RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SFC RIDGE.

WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW E OF THE CASCADES AND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO THE ROCKIES
TIDAY...BEFORE AMPLIFYING LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY AS IT DROPS SE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING THE
TEMP FALL BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND NOW THE 06Z
GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ELEVATED AREAS OF -RA DEVELOPING
JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING
RESULTING IN THE COLUMN HAVING TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER E TX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAVE ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EXTREME SE OK/ADJACENT SW
AR PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THESE AREAS MAY FALL TO OR SLIGHT
BELOW FREEZING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH...AND CAN/T RULE OUT A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX GIVEN THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AS QPF/S REMAIN MINIMAL. WITH THE TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE AREA SATURDAY...HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE AS THE LIGHT QPF SPREADS ESE WITH THE TROUGH. ANY
-RA THAT DOES FALL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE SKY QUICKLY CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING AS SFC
RIDGING AGAIN BUILDS OVERHEAD.

A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMMENCES ATOP THE SFC RIDGE AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE NRN
GULF...AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NW IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT E OF THE
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING W COAST RIDGE. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE S ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SUBFREEZING H850 TEMPS SPILLING S INTO THE
REGION BY TUESDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE ABSENCE OF A SRLY RETURN FLOW
AND A DRY NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS BELOW MOS FOR THE MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...BEFORE HEIGHT RISES TRANSLATE EWD BY LATE
WEEK RESULTING IN A RAPID RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED. /15

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  27  57  35 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  53  26  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  51  22  55  30 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  50  25  54  35 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  50  23  54  32 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  54  28  57  36 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  53  26  56  35 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  55  27  59  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07/15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 041605
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1005 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN...THUS VFR WILL REMAIN THE RULE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED NRLY
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO A LINGERING GRADIENT AND CAA.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S UNDER
CLEAR STAR FILLED SKIES. HOWEVER EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE
AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TEMPS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY AIR MASS, TEMPS
WILL TUMBLE TO FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO HARD FREEZE CRITERIA AT
SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS FROM THE EAST TX LAKES THROUGH CEN LA.

THE RIDGE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR DAY FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
SET UP A BRIEF PERIOD OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL LAST
INTO SATURDAY MORNING TO MID DAY.

A SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY, BUT BY
SATURDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.

ANOTHER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED THAN THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK.

MARINE...THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY TIGHT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER GULF WATERS AND TO ABOUT 20 KTS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT. THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A EAST TO SE FLOW LASTING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG NE WINDS WILL REBUILD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BUT
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING AGAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  54  28  56  32 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  55  31  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  33  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  57  32  59  38 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ452-455.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ450.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




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