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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020512 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT...AS SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR AND E OF A
WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A LFK...TO SHV...ELD LINE
AS OF 05Z. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GR...WITH GUSTY WINDS/EXTREME TURBULENCE POSSIBLE
IN/NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH TEMPO MENTION OF TSRA...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MAINLY SE OF A TYR TO TXK LINE.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE W /OVER
ECNTRL OK/N TX/...WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
FROM THE W. THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE REINFORCED SE LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY EVEN AFTER ITS DEPARTURE BY MIDDAY. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER 18Z AS WELL...WITH CIGS SCATTERING
OUT/BECOMING VFR LATE IN THE DAY. SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB OR LIGHT NNW
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION..INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
FROM KLFK...TO KMNE...TO KCDH. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE QUITE
ROBUST EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
IN UNION COUNTY ARKANSAS. 00Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG WHICH HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT INSTABILITY IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WANING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

POPS/QPF/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS
LEFT INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  50  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  20  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  40  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  60  60  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  50  40  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  60  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15



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000
FXUS64 KLIX 020428
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1128 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
ANOTHER COMPLEX SCENARIO IN A PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE
NORTH GULF BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL
JET ENHANCES. MULTIPLE OUTFLOWS AND COLLAPSING MESO-HIGH WILL
PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC WIND AND STORM MOTIONS IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG THE COAST THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ONSHORE
ORIENTED IN RESPONSE TO FRONTAL ZONE INFLOW AND SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW FOR EARLY ONSET ONCE AGAIN WITH WESTERN TERMINALS POSSIBLY
EXPERIENCING THUNDER BY DAYBREAK AND SPREADING TO EASTERN
TERMINALS BEFORE 18Z. MCS CANOPY TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN SOME
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON MONDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING TOWARDS END OF VALID TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER BOUT OF WAKE
DEPRESSION PROCESSES MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NON-CONVECTIVE
ENHANCED WINDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET
MONDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHERE GREATER CORE OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM WOULD OCCUR AT
THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO
650 MB...AND THEN A SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM 650
MB...WHICH IS NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...UP TO NEARLY 200 MB. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.39 INCHES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
OBSERVED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB...THEN GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING ABOVE THAT LEVEL. WEST WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
WERE NOTED NEAR 175 AND 150 MB. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY TODAYS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WAS HEAVIEST IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT AS AN ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID
THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE ALL OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD START TO ABATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS LAND THUNDESTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE HOUMAM...BOOTHVILLE LINE. EXPECT
CEILINGS BLOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES MAINLY NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INLAND TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET AND CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 6 MILES.

MARINE...
AWAY FROM AREAS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1
TO 2 FEET IN PROTECTED WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. RADAR SUPPORT.
MONITORING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  76  62  75 /  70  70  40  40
BTR  70  78  64  77 /  80  70  50  40
ASD  71  79  67  78 /  30  60  60  40
MSY  73  80  68  78 /  30  70  50  50
GPT  73  78  68  78 /  20  40  60  50
PQL  70  78  68  78 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KLCH 020330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
RETROGRADED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. WILL PLACE FEATURE FROM JUST
EAST OF SHREVEPORT TO THE LUFKIN AREA THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG
BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IS NOW WELL INTO THE GULF WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN AT A HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.87 INCHES. WITH HEFTY TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE AND EXTENT OF RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER...LEAVING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING WAS A FAIRLY SIMPLE CALL. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
CONFIDENCE OF HOW AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AFOREMENTIONED
RETROGRADING OF INLAND BOUNDARY WILL CEASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY THEN BEGINNING ITS SOUTHEAST TREK INTO AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ROUGH DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. A
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY AND DROPPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WERE MUTED BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEREFORE...UNDER
THE RAINSHIELD TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 70 I-10 AND SOUTH...WHILE
UP TO THE NORTH WHERE RAIN WAS ABSENT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION..A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. THE AREA COULD STILL RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AVOID DRIVING IN THE AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINS ARE CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING PROBLEMS. TURN AROUND DON`T
DROWN IF YOU COME UPON AN AREA OF WATER ON THE ROAD OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TO END THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED RAINS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  59  75 /  60  70  30  10
LCH  69  80  62  77 /  70  70  40  20
LFT  71  81  65  78 /  60  70  50  30
BPT  69  80  61  78 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020321 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION..INCLUDING ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
FROM KLFK...TO KMNE...TO KCDH. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE QUITE
ROBUST EARLIER THIS EVENING WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL
IN UNION COUNTY ARKANSAS. 00Z KSHV SOUNDING SHOWED CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG WHICH HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT INSTABILITY IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY ALREADY APPEARS TO BE WANING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

POPS/QPF/WX GRIDS WERE TWEAKED A BIT BASED ON CURRENT ACTIVITY AND
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS
LEFT INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT STG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY IN DAY ON SATURDAY...HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH LA/SE
TX. SFC LOW DEVELOPED OVER EAST TX LAKES...WITH INVERTED TROUGH
PIVOTING NWD AROUND LOW. A CONCENTRATED ARFEA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHCENTRAL LA...JUST SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THIS
TROUGH. HAVE TAILORED POPS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BASED ON
NAM MODEL DEPICTION OF FOCUSING TROUGH MOVING TO NEAR I-30
CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN SHIFTING BACK SWD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH....WILL SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND BRING
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY COVERAGE...INTIL NW FLOW KICKS BOTH
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF AREA BY MONDAY EVE.
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP AND PROVIDE A NEEDED PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THRU THE WEEK. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  50  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  20  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  40  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  60  60  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  50  40  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  60  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLIX 020139
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO
650 MB...AND THEN A SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM 650
MB...WHICH IS NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...UP TO NEARLY 200 MB. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.39 INCHES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
OBSERVED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB...THEN GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING ABOVE THAT LEVEL. WEST WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
WERE NOTED NEAR 175 AND 150 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY TODAYS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WAS HEAVIEST IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT AS AN ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID
THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE ALL OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD START TO ABATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS LAND THUNDESTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE HOUMAM...BOOTHVILLE LINE. EXPECT
CEILINGS BLOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES MAINLY NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INLAND TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET AND CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 6 MILES.

MARINE...
AWAY FROM AREAS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1
TO 2 FEET IN PROTECTED WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. RADAR SUPPORT.
MONITORING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  76  62  75 /  60  70  40  40
BTR  70  78  64  77 /  60  70  50  40
ASD  71  79  67  78 /  60  70  50  40
MSY  73  80  68  78 /  60  70  50  50
GPT  73  78  68  78 /  60  70  60  50
PQL  70  78  68  78 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 012108
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ROUGH DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. A
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY AND DROPPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WERE MUTED BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEREFORE...UNDER
THE RAINSHIELD TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 70 I-10 AND SOUTH...WHILE
UP TO THE NORTH WHERE RAIN WAS ABSENT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION..A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. THE AREA COULD STILL RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AVOID DRIVING IN THE AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINS ARE CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING PROBLEMS. TURN AROUND DON`T
DROWN IF YOU COME UPON AN AREA OF WATER ON THE ROAD OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TO END THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED RAINS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  59  75 /  60  70  30  10
LCH  69  80  62  77 /  70  70  40  20
LFT  71  81  65  78 /  60  70  50  30
BPT  69  80  61  78 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012046
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY TODAYS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WAS HEAVIEST IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT AS AN ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID
THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE ALL OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.LONG TERM...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD START TO ABATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS LAND THUNDESTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE HOUMAM...BOOTHVILLE LINE. EXPECT
CEILINGS BLOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES MAINLY NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INLAND TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET AND CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 6 MILES.

&&

.MARINE...
AWAY FROM AREAS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1
TO 2 FEET IN PROTECTED WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. RADAR SUPPORT.
MONITORING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  76  62  75 /  60  70  40  40
BTR  70  78  64  77 /  60  70  50  40
ASD  71  79  67  78 /  60  70  50  40
MSY  73  80  68  78 /  60  70  50  50
GPT  73  78  68  78 /  60  70  60  50
PQL  70  78  68  78 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.
GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
 &&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO MVFR CLOUDS AND
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE CONVECTION. EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT...THEN FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY AND WIND SHIFT NUDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAYBREAK. MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO VFR IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS WITH THE
TROUGH AND NORTHEAST TO NORTH AROUND THE BACK OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MANY OF THE SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS SITES AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH THEN RETURN TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THE REMAINING TERMINAL SITE OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  74  54 /  20  40  50  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  30  60  70  40
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  50  30  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  50  30  10
ELD  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  20  40  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  30  60  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM DEEP EAST TEXAS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO MVFR CLOUDS AND
CEILINGS IN AND NEAR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE CONVECTION. EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH TO SHIFT NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT...THEN FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY AND WIND SHIFT NUDGING
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAYBREAK. MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING...THEN RETURNING TO VFR IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND
EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 7 KNOTS WITH THE
TROUGH AND NORTHEAST TO NORTH AROUND THE BACK OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR MANY OF THE SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS SITES AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH THEN RETURN TO THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THE REMAINING TERMINAL SITE OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  74  54 /  20  40  50  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  30  60  70  40
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  50  30  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  50  30  10
ELD  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  20  40  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  20  40  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  30  60  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT STG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY IN DAY ON SATURDAY...HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH LA/SE
TX. SFC LOW DEVELOPED OVER EAST TX LAKES...WITH INVERTED TROUGH
PIVOTING NWD AROUND LOW. A CONCENTRATED ARFEA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHCENTRAL LA...JUST SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THIS
TROUGH. HAVE TAILORED POPS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BASED ON
NAM MODEL DEPICTION OF FOCUSING TROUGH MOVING TO NEAR I-30
CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN SHIFTING BACK SWD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH....WILL SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND BRING
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY COVERAGE...INTIL NW FLOW KICKS BOTH
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF AREA BY MONDAY EVE.
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP AND PROVIDE A NEEDED PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THRU THE WEEK. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  40  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  30  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  40  50  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  70  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
235 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT STG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY IN DAY ON SATURDAY...HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTH LA/SE
TX. SFC LOW DEVELOPED OVER EAST TX LAKES...WITH INVERTED TROUGH
PIVOTING NWD AROUND LOW. A CONCENTRATED ARFEA OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED OVER NORTHCENTRAL LA...JUST SOUTH OF I-20...ALONG THIS
TROUGH. HAVE TAILORED POPS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW BASED ON
NAM MODEL DEPICTION OF FOCUSING TROUGH MOVING TO NEAR I-30
CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN SHIFTING BACK SWD OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE...LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH....WILL SNEAK INTO SOUTHERN CWA AND BRING
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY COVERAGE...INTIL NW FLOW KICKS BOTH
BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF AREA BY MONDAY EVE.
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP AND PROVIDE A NEEDED PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRYNESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THRU THE WEEK. INTRODUCED LOW POPS FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  54  72 /  40  50  20  10
MLU  65  74  56  74 /  60  70  40  10
DEQ  55  70  48  72 /  50  30  10  10
TXK  59  71  51  72 /  50  30  10  10
ELD  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
TYR  59  71  51  72 /  40  50  10  10
GGG  61  72  53  72 /  40  50  20  10
LFK  65  75  56  75 /  60  70  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011837
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SHIFT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AFTERNOON HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. UPDATED THE ZONE AND COASTAL FORECAST PRODUCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR SHIFT OF HIGHER POPS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER. PRECIPITATION HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY
CURRENTLY ONGOING FLOODING RAINS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRAINING ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
WAS LOCATED NOW ALONG THE COAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE IS RIDING UP
OVER THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL. ONE
CAVEAT...SOME OF THE INTENSE HEAVY RAIN MAY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY IN
THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO EARLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
COULD CONCENTRATE THE INTENSE RAINS FURTHER SOUTH AT LEAST FOR
NOW. THIS AFTERNOON THAT BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT AND
THEREFORE WILL SEE MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP INLAND.

I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
HEAVY CLOUD COVER. UPDATE TO ZONE AND COASTAL FORECASTS COMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE LCH/BPT/LFT/ARA TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NORTH TOWARD AEX AS WELL. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCTD TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF FRQT TO CONS LTG...WIND GUSTS TO 40
KT...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/OCCASIONALLY VFR. THE MOIST
AND UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LAYER SHEAR. SO FAR WE HAVE
RECEIVED ONE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
SCOTT LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

UNTIL THEN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 150
PERCENT TO TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM SEEN FROM EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT A
HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LENGTHY
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING...THEN MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS OVER AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
RE-DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

BY MIDWEEK...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FORM. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR AWHILE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEXT
WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LENGTH AND FETCH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVELS.
THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR...ENDING
RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  78  60 /  30  60  70  30
LCH  80  72  80  64 / 100  60  70  40
LFT  78  73  82  65 / 100  60  70  40
BPT  80  72  80  63 / 100  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011837
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
137 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SHIFT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO THE NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AFTERNOON HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. UPDATED THE ZONE AND COASTAL FORECAST PRODUCTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR SHIFT OF HIGHER POPS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER. PRECIPITATION HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY
CURRENTLY ONGOING FLOODING RAINS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRAINING ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
WAS LOCATED NOW ALONG THE COAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE IS RIDING UP
OVER THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL. ONE
CAVEAT...SOME OF THE INTENSE HEAVY RAIN MAY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY IN
THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO EARLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
COULD CONCENTRATE THE INTENSE RAINS FURTHER SOUTH AT LEAST FOR
NOW. THIS AFTERNOON THAT BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT AND
THEREFORE WILL SEE MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP INLAND.

I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
HEAVY CLOUD COVER. UPDATE TO ZONE AND COASTAL FORECASTS COMING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE LCH/BPT/LFT/ARA TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NORTH TOWARD AEX AS WELL. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCTD TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF FRQT TO CONS LTG...WIND GUSTS TO 40
KT...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/OCCASIONALLY VFR. THE MOIST
AND UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LAYER SHEAR. SO FAR WE HAVE
RECEIVED ONE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
SCOTT LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

UNTIL THEN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 150
PERCENT TO TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM SEEN FROM EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT A
HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LENGTHY
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING...THEN MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS OVER AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
RE-DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

BY MIDWEEK...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FORM. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR AWHILE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEXT
WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LENGTH AND FETCH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVELS.
THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR...ENDING
RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  78  60 /  30  60  70  30
LCH  80  72  80  64 / 100  60  70  40
LFT  78  73  82  65 / 100  60  70  40
BPT  80  72  80  63 / 100  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE LOWERED AFTN POPS AS CONVECTION SKIRTING THE SE CWA...HAS
SHIFTED FURTHER AWAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THIS
RETURNING BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED...AND WITH AFTN
HEATING...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN FILLING IN OVER
MAINLY NORTH LA PORTIONS OF AREA. ALSO...12Z SOUNDING AT KSHV VERY
MARGINAL FOR CONVECTION...AS BOTH SURFACE BASED INVERSION NEEDS TO
ERODE...IN ADDITION TO COMPLETE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB.
THUS...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT NW TO 40 PERCENT OVER SE
CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 11Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR A PBF...ELD...JAS LINE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
INCREASED ALL NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCING THE MLU
TERMINAL SHORTLY. EAST OF THE MLU TERMINALS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE THE AIRPORT IS RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF IFR CEILINGS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS. A LOOP OF IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR HGX ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE
BRIEF TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE
LFK/GGG/SHV TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.

AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT BACK NORTH...SO WILL THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THAT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...LOOK FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE NORTH.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  20  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  30  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  20  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  20  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  20  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  30  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011606
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON POPS AND WEATHER. PRECIPITATION HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY
CURRENTLY ONGOING FLOODING RAINS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
THE COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRAINING ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH
WAS LOCATED NOW ALONG THE COAST. RICH GULF MOISTURE IS RIDING UP
OVER THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL. ONE
CAVEAT...SOME OF THE INTENSE HEAVY RAIN MAY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY IN
THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO EARLY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
COULD CONCENTRATE THE INTENSE RAINS FURTHER SOUTH AT LEAST FOR
NOW. THIS AFTERNOON THAT BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY WASH OUT AND
THEREFORE WILL SEE MORE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP INLAND.

I HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
HEAVY CLOUD COVER. UPDATE TO ZONE AND COASTAL FORECASTS COMING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE LCH/BPT/LFT/ARA TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NORTH TOWARD AEX AS WELL. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCTD TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF FRQT TO CONS LTG...WIND GUSTS TO 40
KT...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/OCCASIONALLY VFR. THE MOIST
AND UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LAYER SHEAR. SO FAR WE HAVE
RECEIVED ONE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
SCOTT LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

UNTIL THEN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 150
PERCENT TO TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM SEEN FROM EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT A
HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LENGTHY
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING...THEN MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS OVER AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
RE-DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

BY MIDWEEK...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FORM. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR AWHILE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEXT
WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LENGTH AND FETCH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVELS.
THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR...ENDING
RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  78  60 /  50  60  70  30
LCH  80  72  80  64 /  90  60  70  40
LFT  78  73  82  65 / 100  60  70  40
BPT  80  72  80  63 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011402
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
902 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
GULF MOISTURE REALLY REBOUNDED OVERNIGHT IN THE SFC TO 925 MB
LAYER. THE SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER FOR STORMS AGAIN TODAY. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2100 J/KG AND
PW AT 1.69 INCHES IS NEAR THE MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
SPC CLIMATOLOGY. THESE FACTORS AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ARE
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IS A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN TODAY FROM INTENSE RAINFALL AREAS AND
ESPECIALLY ANY TRAINING STORMS. SHEAR IS LESS FAVORABLE TODAY SO
OVERALL SEVERE WIND THREAT IS RELATIVELY LOW. MODEST LAPSE RATES
FROM 600 TO 350 MB... ABOUT 7 C/KM PROVIDE SOME HAIL THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS. ALOFT A 115 KT JET STREAK NEAR 200 MB OVER SOUTH
LOUISIANA WILL HELP SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...

A LULL IN THE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LOOKING AT OUR SUNDAY...ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY COOLED INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL SETTING UP IN A WEST TO EAST LINE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHSHORE AREAS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AS CAPE VALUES
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUING IN THE AREA.

LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY INCREASED MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. FINALLY...LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS A WAVE
DIVING SOUTH PUSHES IT THROUGH THE AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.

AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT WHICH IS
AT THE LOW END OF MVFR CEILINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT KGPT FALLING INTO
THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN FL050-080 MAY HINDER
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THREATENING ANY OF THE TERMINALS...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
THE WEST OF KLFT. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
KBTR AND KMCB AROUND 12Z-13Z. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR ANY
NEEDED CHANGES FROM CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. ANY TERMINALS DIRECTLY
AFFECTED WILL EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OUT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LIKELY TO SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS BEYOND 06Z MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

MARINE...

WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN...AND CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REACHES THE
WATERS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. RADAR SUPPORT.
MONITORING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  79  62 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  82  69  81  65 /  70  50  60  50
ASD  81  70  82  66 /  60  40  50  50
MSY  81  72  83  69 /  70  40  50  50
GPT  81  71  81  67 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  81  69  81  68 /  50  30  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
01/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE LCH/BPT/LFT/ARA TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NORTH TOWARD AEX AS WELL. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A
CONTINUATION OF SCTD TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF FRQT TO CONS LTG...WIND GUSTS TO 40
KT...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/OCCASIONALLY VFR. THE MOIST
AND UNSETTLED REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING...LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LAYER SHEAR. SO FAR WE HAVE
RECEIVED ONE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
SCOTT LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

UNTIL THEN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 150
PERCENT TO TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM SEEN FROM EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT A
HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LENGTHY
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING...THEN MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS OVER AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
RE-DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

BY MIDWEEK...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FORM. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR AWHILE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEXT
WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LENGTH AND FETCH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVELS.
THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR...ENDING
RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  78  60 /  70  60  70  30
LCH  82  72  80  64 /  70  60  70  40
LFT  83  73  82  65 /  70  60  70  40
BPT  82  72  80  63 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 11Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR A PBF...ELD...JAS LINE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
INCREASED ALL NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCING THE MLU
TERMINAL SHORTLY. EAST OF THE MLU TERMINALS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE THE AIRPORT IS RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF IFR CEILINGS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS. A LOOP OF IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR HGX ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE
BRIEF TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE
LFK/GGG/SHV TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.

AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT BACK NORTH...SO WILL THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THAT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...LOOK FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE NORTH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  50  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  30  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 11Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR A PBF...ELD...JAS LINE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
INCREASED ALL NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCING THE MLU
TERMINAL SHORTLY. EAST OF THE MLU TERMINALS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE THE AIRPORT IS RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF IFR CEILINGS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS. A LOOP OF IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR HGX ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE
BRIEF TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE
LFK/GGG/SHV TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.

AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT BACK NORTH...SO WILL THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THAT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...LOOK FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE NORTH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  50  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  30  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010953
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
453 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SPIN UP CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW LAYER SHEAR. SO FAR WE HAVE
RECEIVED ONE REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN
SCOTT LOUISIANA.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN DRIER AIR.

UNTIL THEN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL VARY BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WHICH IS 150
PERCENT TO TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALSO...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AS
FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUB TROPICAL
JET STREAM SEEN FROM EAST PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AND ANY ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BRING ABOUT A
HIGH AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RATES IN THE SAME AREA FOR A LENGTHY
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HIGH INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR WILL
BRING ABOUT A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LARGE HAIL THIS MORNING...THEN MORE OF AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE FROM WET MICROBURSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REDEVELOPMENT FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ATMOSPHERE TURNS OVER AND ACTIVITY WEAKENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
RE-DEVELOPS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

BY MIDWEEK...LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FORM. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR AWHILE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY NEXT
WEEKEND.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE LENGTH AND FETCH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...ELEVATED
TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES
RUNNING 1.5 TO 2 FEET MLLW ABOVE THE PREDICTED LEVELS.
THEREFORE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER AIR...ENDING
RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  70  78  60 /  70  60  70  30
LCH  82  72  80  64 /  70  60  70  40
LFT  83  73  82  65 /  70  60  70  40
BPT  82  72  80  63 /  70  70  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010908
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  40  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  20  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010908
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  40  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  20  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A LULL IN THE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LOOKING AT OUR SUNDAY...ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY COOLED INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL SETTING UP IN A WEST TO EAST LINE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHSHORE AREAS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AS CAPE VALUES
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUING IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY INCREASED MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. FINALLY...LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS A WAVE
DIVING SOUTH PUSHES IT THROUGH THE AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT WHICH IS
AT THE LOW END OF MVFR CEILINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT KGPT FALLING INTO
THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN FL050-080 MAY HINDER
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THREATENING ANY OF THE TERMINALS...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
THE WEST OF KLFT. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
KBTR AND KMCB AROUND 12Z-13Z. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR ANY
NEEDED CHANGES FROM CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. ANY TERMINALS DIRECTLY
AFFECTED WILL EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OUT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LIKELY TO SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS BEYOND 06Z MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN...AND CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REACHES THE
WATERS.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  78  62 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  82  69  81  65 /  70  50  60  50
ASD  82  70  83  66 /  60  40  50  50
MSY  81  72  83  69 /  70  40  50  50
GPT  82  71  82  67 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  81  69  81  68 /  50  30  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A LULL IN THE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
LAST LONG. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LOOKING AT OUR SUNDAY...ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY COOLED INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS RAINFALL SETTING UP IN A WEST TO EAST LINE
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHSHORE AREAS WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE
MAIN THREATS TODAY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AS CAPE VALUES
REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE CONTINUING IN THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY INCREASED MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. FINALLY...LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE A DECREASE IN MOISTURE AS A WAVE
DIVING SOUTH PUSHES IT THROUGH THE AREA. FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS CURRENTLY VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGPT WHICH IS
AT THE LOW END OF MVFR CEILINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT KGPT FALLING INTO
THE IFR RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHER TERMINALS COULD ALSO SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS...BUT A CLOUD DECK BETWEEN FL050-080 MAY HINDER
LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THREATENING ANY OF THE TERMINALS...THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO
THE WEST OF KLFT. MESOSCALE MODELING SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS THUNDERSTORM THAT COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
KBTR AND KMCB AROUND 12Z-13Z. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR ANY
NEEDED CHANGES FROM CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. ANY TERMINALS DIRECTLY
AFFECTED WILL EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS. MOST CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OUT NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. LIKELY TO SEE A
REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS BEYOND 06Z MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CARRY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA...PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN...AND CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY TO MEET HEADLINE CRITERIA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR REACHES THE
WATERS.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  80  67  78  62 /  70  60  60  50
BTR  82  69  81  65 /  70  50  60  50
ASD  82  70  83  66 /  60  40  50  50
MSY  81  72  83  69 /  70  40  50  50
GPT  82  71  82  67 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  81  69  81  68 /  50  30  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ESE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR A MWT...TO TXK...TO JUST E OF
ASL...TO LFK AND CXO LINE AS OF 0230Z. DID SEE A FEW TOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF SHV SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BNDRY IN SE CASS COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS OVER
TXK. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS BNDRY EASING A
BIT FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA
BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY LATE...WITH ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY
WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. CAN/T
RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...BUT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD FORM LATE...AS WELL AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST
ATTM.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  69  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  56  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  62  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  63  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  62  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  69  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAFS...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KMNE...TO BETWEEN KLFK AND KJAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST
AND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS SRN AR BUT HAS STRUGGLED FARTHER SOUTH.
ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS THE WEAK FRONT ADVANCES SEWD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. LOW CIGS AND
FOG...INCLUDING SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY 01/18Z. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ESE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR A MWT...TO TXK...TO JUST E OF
ASL...TO LFK AND CXO LINE AS OF 0230Z. DID SEE A FEW TOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF SHV SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BNDRY IN SE CASS COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS OVER
TXK. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS BNDRY EASING A
BIT FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA
BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY LATE...WITH ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY
WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. CAN/T
RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...BUT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD FORM LATE...AS WELL AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST
ATTM.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

15

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  69  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  56  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  62  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  63  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  62  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  69  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010303
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1003 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE AND SOME RECENT TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED
TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF THE PARISHES SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND ALSO RUN IT THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS WILL BE A COMPLICATED SET OF TAF ISSUANCES IN THAT TIMING THE
ONSET OF CONVECTION WILL BE DIFFICULT. CURRENT THINKING IS HAVING
SOME INDICATIONS FOR KBTR AND KMCB BY AS EARLY AS 14Z THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE REST OF TAF LOCATIONS BY 18Z.
CIGS WILL ALSO VARY TO UPPER END IFR WITH MARINE LAYER ADVANCEMENT
OVERNIGHT THEN MVFR BASES WITH RAINFALL...IMPROVING TO VFR
GENERALLY AFTER 02/00Z. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER IN THE SHORT-TERM TO HANDLE
CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1001MB LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO WEST
TENNESSEE WITH 1.50 TO 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS...FIRST OVER
NEBRASKA AND SECOND OVER WEST ARIZONA...CREATING A WEST FLOW OVER
ARKLATEX REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT
250MB SHOWED A NEARLY PARALLEL JETS...FIRST SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE SECOND TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA.
18

CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE WILL DICTATE THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY...THE PROGRESSION EAST OF STORMS HAS
BEEN FAST. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES ARE HEAVY AT TIMES. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECASTER AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING....LINGER OVERNIGHT
AND REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS DRIFT BACK
NORTH. THEREFORE...EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SECOND ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE RETREATING
MOISTURE AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND WEST
GULF...CREATING A DISTANT COUPLET. WITH WEST FLOW DECREASING...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 150M/S WITH BEST VALUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DIFFUSE AND SAG SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. 18

LONG TERM...

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST THE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS A SECOND WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT RAINFALL EXPECTED. 18

AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING MANY TERMINALS WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IS YIELDING TEMPO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR TERMINALS AS THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS OF THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
NOW THROUGH 22Z. KASD...KMSY...KNEW AND KGPT WILL SEE THE WORST OF
THEIR CONDITIONS NOW THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLOWLY AFTER 0Z AND WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. 13/MH

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  80  67  78 /  60  70  30  60
BTR  70  82  69  81 /  60  70  30  60
ASD  70  82  70  83 /  50  60  30  50
MSY  72  81  72  83 /  50  50  30  50
GPT  72  82  71  82 /  70  50  30  50
PQL  70  81  69  81 /  90  50  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>065-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010249
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEAK SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ESE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR A MWT...TO TXK...TO JUST E OF
ASL...TO LFK AND CXO LINE AS OF 0230Z. DID SEE A FEW TOWERS
DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH JUST W OF SHV SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNSET...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHRA HAVING RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BNDRY IN SE CASS COUNTY TX...AS WELL AS OVER
TXK. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS BNDRY EASING A
BIT FARTHER SE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA
BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY LATE...WITH ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE BNDRY
WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT MIN TEMP FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. CAN/T
RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING LATE ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...BUT WITH THE CURRENT CU FIELD AND
EVENTUALLY THE LOW STRATUS THAT SHOULD FORM LATE...AS WELL AS ANY
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE FORECAST
ATTM.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 01/18Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE
TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 02/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  69  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  56  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  62  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  63  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  62  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  69  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010244
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  50  60  50  80
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  50  80
LFT  71  83  71  83 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  82  71  81 /  40  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010030 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
730 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH/PSEUDO-FRONT
EXTENDING IN A N-S LINE FROM EXTREME WRN AR S TO NEAR DEQ...TO
JUST E OF GGG...TO NEAR A LFK AND CXO LINE. SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A WALK OUTSIDE IN THE PARKING LOT REVEALS A FLAT CU
FIELD IN PLACE...DESPITE THE STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE
AFTER TEMPS RECOVERED WELL INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WITHIN THE HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A BROAD SLUG OF
DRY AIR WRAPPING N AND E ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW OVER SW NE/NW KS...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LYR
FORCING THIS FAR S OF THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST E OF THE SFC TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS
ESE INTO THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA LATE BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS AND THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
NEAR/E OF THE TROUGH...THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TONIGHT FOR
THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA...AS THE FLOOD THREAT
HAS ENDED.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK N ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA SUCH THAT FLOODING
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE FACT THAT
THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N
ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/SE OK. DID TONE DOWN POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THE FAR SRN ZONES...WITH THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE REGION OVER SE
TX/CNTRL/SRN LA.

DID NOT ADJUST THE MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL RE-
EVALUATE DURING THE MID-EVENING DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE/WATCH CANCELLATION ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE
AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 01/18Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE
TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 02/00Z. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  20  20  70  70
MLU  68  84  66  74 /  30  30  70  80
DEQ  55  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  60  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  62  81  61  72 /  20  20  70  70
TYR  61  81  60  72 /  10  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  10  20  70  60
LFK  67  82  66  77 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302358
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER IN THE SHORT-TERM TO HANDLE
CURRENT TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1001MB LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO WEST
TENNESSEE WITH 1.50 TO 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS...FIRST OVER
NEBRASKA AND SECOND OVER WEST ARIZONA...CREATING A WEST FLOW OVER
ARKLATEX REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT
250MB SHOWED A NEARLY PARALLEL JETS...FIRST SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE SECOND TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA.
18

CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE WILL DICTATE THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY...THE PROGRESSION EAST OF STORMS HAS
BEEN FAST. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES ARE HEAVY AT TIMES. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECASTER AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING....LINGER OVERNIGHT
AND REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS DRIFT BACK
NORTH. THEREFORE...EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SECOND ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE RETREATING
MOISTURE AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND WEST
GULF...CREATING A DISTANT COUPLET. WITH WEST FLOW DECREASING...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 150M/S WITH BEST VALUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DIFFUSE AND SAG SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. 18

LONG TERM...

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST THE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS A SECOND WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT RAINFALL EXPECTED. 18

AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING MANY TERMINALS WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IS YIELDING TEMPO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR TERMINALS AS THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS OF THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
NOW THROUGH 22Z. KASD...KMSY...KNEW AND KGPT WILL SEE THE WORST OF
THEIR CONDITIONS NOW THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLOWLY AFTER 0Z AND WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. 13/MH

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  80  67  78 /  60  70  30  60
BTR  70  82  69  81 /  60  70  30  60
ASD  70  82  70  83 /  50  60  30  50
MSY  72  81  72  83 /  50  50  30  50
GPT  72  82  71  82 /  70  50  30  50
PQL  70  81  69  81 /  90  50  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR




000
FXUS64 KSHV 302358
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
658 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
AFTER THE FROPA AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT MOST TAF SITES
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY
BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SOILS MAY ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. ANY
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES BY 01/18Z. SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE
TAF SITES WILL BE AFTER 02/00Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...MUCH NEEDED DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC
ALSO HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME. IT WILL
REALLY DEPEND ON HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUNSET. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD SO MUCH RAIN FALL IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...HAVE ALSO LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE...BECAUSE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME...EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE BACKING OF THE
PRECIPITATION JUST A BIT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDWEEK...AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

AVIATION... /ISSUED 1110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  64  75 /  30  20  70  70
MLU  68  84  66  74 /  50  30  70  80
DEQ  55  79  56  71 /  20  10  70  50
TXK  60  80  59  71 /  20  10  70  60
ELD  62  81  61  72 /  40  20  70  70
TYR  61  81  60  72 /  20  20  60  60
GGG  63  81  61  73 /  20  20  70  60
LFK  67  82  66  77 /  30  50  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 302130
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  50  60  50  80
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  50  80
LFT  72  83  71  83 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  71  82  71  81 /  40  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 302129
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...MUCH NEEDED DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO REDEVELOP...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC
ALSO HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AT THIS TIME. IT WILL
REALLY DEPEND ON HOW WELL WE DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SUNSET. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD SO MUCH RAIN FALL IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS...HAVE ALSO LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE...BECAUSE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME...EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE BACKING OF THE
PRECIPITATION JUST A BIT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
MIDWEEK...AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 1110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  66  82  64 /  40  30  20  70
MLU  80  68  84  66 / 100  50  30  70
DEQ  79  55  79  56 /  20  20  10  70
TXK  81  60  80  59 /  30  20  10  70
ELD  80  62  81  61 /  40  40  20  70
TYR  82  61  81  60 /  20  20  20  60
GGG  82  63  81  61 /  30  20  20  70
LFK  85  67  82  66 /  40  30  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

28/7




000
FXUS64 KLIX 302124
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
424 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 1001MB LOW OVER MISSOURI WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS PRESENT OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PLOTS SHOWED MOISTURE AXIS FROM UPPER TEXAS COAST TO WEST
TENNESSEE WITH 1.50 TO 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED TWO CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS...FIRST OVER
NEBRASKA AND SECOND OVER WEST ARIZONA...CREATING A WEST FLOW OVER
ARKLATEX REGION...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOTACH ANALYSIS AT
250MB SHOWED A NEARLY PARALLEL JETS...FIRST SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE SECOND TEXAS BIG BEND TO WEST LOUISIANA.
18

&&

CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE WILL DICTATE THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO RACE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY...THE PROGRESSION EAST OF STORMS HAS
BEEN FAST. HOWEVER...RAINFALL RATES ARE HEAVY AT TIMES. MOISTURE
AXIS WILL BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FORECASTER AREA. THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING....LINGER OVERNIGHT
AND REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MOISTURE AXIS DRIFT BACK
NORTH. THEREFORE...EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SECOND ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE RETREATING
MOISTURE AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1000 TO 2500 J/KG THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND WEST
GULF...CREATING A DISTANT COUPLET. WITH WEST FLOW DECREASING...LL
HELICITY VALUES REMAIN BELOW 150M/S WITH BEST VALUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. THIS AXIS
WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY DIFFUSE AND SAG SOUTH MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH OF THE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST THE PUSH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GFS SHOWS A SECOND WAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT RAINFALL EXPECTED. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING MANY TERMINALS WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS IS YIELDING TEMPO IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
FOR TERMINALS AS THE HEAVIEST PORTIONS OF THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS EXPECT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
KBTR...KHDC AND KHUM SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
NOW THROUGH 22Z. KASD...KMSY...KNEW AND KGPT WILL SEE THE WORST OF
THEIR CONDITIONS NOW THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLOWLY AFTER 0Z AND WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  80  67  78 /  60  70  30  60
BTR  70  82  69  81 /  60  70  30  60
ASD  70  82  70  83 /  60  60  30  50
MSY  72  81  72  83 /  50  50  30  50
GPT  72  82  71  82 /  50  50  30  50
PQL  70  81  69  81 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-
     050-058-060>064-066>070-072.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301810
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301810
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301740
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1240 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTH LOUISIANA. THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER HOUR FOR
LOWER ACADIANA WHILE SAINT LANDRY AND LAFAYETTE HAVE BEEN SHAVED
OFF.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  83  68  78 /  60  50  40  70
LCH  71  82  71  80 /  50  60  40  60
LFT  72  83  71  83 /  60  70  30  60
BPT  71  82  71  81 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301730
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.AVIATION... /PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 808 AM CDT/
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT THE REGION
BY 30/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT LFK/MLU...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

28/20




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301544
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1044 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...THE SVR WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME TO
INCLUDE LOWER ACADIANA. PORTIONS OF THE WATCH TO THE WEST HAVE
BEEN SHAVED OFF AS THE THREAT SHIFT EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 / 100  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 / 100  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 / 100  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
949 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE SVR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT, HOWEVER THE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN THROUGH MID DAY AND THE FORECAST WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LA IN THE UPDATE SHORTLY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 301331
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
831 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATES A VERY WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT BELOW AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 900 MB. ONSHORE FLOW
OFF THE GULF IS 20 TO 35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE SFC THROUGH THIS
LAYER. THE LCL IS LOW AT 400 FEET. DRIER AIR IS PRESENT ABOVE TO
ABOUT 550 MB. OVERALL PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.43 INCHES. ANOTHER
ELEVATED INVERSION IS NEAR 630 MB... WHERE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN
MORE WESTERLY. CAPE IS RELATIVELY LONG AND SKINNY THROUGH THE
PROFILE WITH MOST UNSTABLE AT 2000 J/KG. WARM CLOUD LAYER IN A
STORM WOULD BE 14000 FT SO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY. SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR IS 35 KTS...
THAT IS ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WIND TO AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
AS WELL. WE EXPECT THIS ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW THE MCS CURRENTLY AT
THE LA/MS BORDER TO CONTINUE EAST. THE SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES
THIS MORNING WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE LCH PROFILE HAS A BIT
MORE SHEAR AND ALSO SUPPORTS MCS MAINTENANCE. ONE LAST CONCERN FOR
TODAY WOULD BE THE LINE OF STORMS SLOWING IN SOUTHEAST LA AND
TRAINING ALONG A COASTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON... WHERE THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE POOLED AT 925 MB ALONG THE NORTHSHORE AND
THE MS GULF COAST.

KRAUTMANN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.

OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

LONG TERM...

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  68  81  67 /  90  70  70  30
BTR  82  70  84  68 /  90  50  70  30
ASD  84  68  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  72  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
PQL  84  69  83  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 301308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/12Z TAFS...A LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...LEAVING US WITH A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT THE REGION BY
30/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT LFK/MLU...WHERE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 301037
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
537 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 129 ISSUED BY SPC UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED BOW ECHO FEATURES IN THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS/WET MICROBURSTS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 300947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EARLY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING
DIFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AS NORTHERN JET STREAM ROUNDS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SUB TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ENTERING THE UPPER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. AS THIS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND
OTHER ACTIVITY FILLS IN AHEAD OF IT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SUB TROPICAL JET ALSO ADDING
TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PAC. THEREFORE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 1.5 INCHES TODAY...AND NEARING 2 INCHES
IN SOME SPOTS (TWICE THE STANDARD DEVIATION) ALONG WITH MEAN RH
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS. ALSO...WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
RUNNING PARALLEL TO THETA-E RIDGING...THESE STORMS WITH HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR EXTENDING PERIODS
OF TIME. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WPC HAS
ALSO OUTLINED THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

SPEED MAX RUNNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO PRODUCE BULK
SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS...WITH FAVORABLE 85H-50H
LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...SOME STRONG
GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE DAY ONE PERIOD.

HI-RES MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE POTENTIAL WEST OF AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THEN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACCELERATING
EASTWARD FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
POINTS TO THE EAST.

IF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DOES VERIFY...FORECAST AREA MAY SEE A
BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY REACHES THE COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT...AND SUB TROPICAL JET REMAINS ACTIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES.

LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN
DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER THE WEEK.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING ELEVATED SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR 7 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT NEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS...HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  69  83  68 / 100  60  50  40
LCH  81  71  82  71 /  90  50  60  40
LFT  83  72  83  71 /  70  60  70  30
BPT  82  71  82  71 /  90  40  50  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ028-029-031>033-
     042>045-052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027-030-041.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ215-
     216.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GMZ470-472-
     475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ430-432-435.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 300905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

13




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300900
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER POINTE COUPEE AND WEST
FELICIANA PARISHES THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING NORTH AND EAST.
CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND STRETCHING TO
LUFKIN AND THEN NORTH OF HOUSTON IN EASTERN TEXAS.

OVERALL...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
UPDATE SENT OUT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THERE ARE A FEW ADDITIONS. THE
MAIN ONE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE BEGINNING AT 12Z AND
RUNNING TO 00Z ON SUNDAY. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF THE PROBABILITY
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS HIGHER GENERALLY WEST OF I-55 AND NORTH OF
I-10 AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED. OTHER
THAN THAT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY A BIT MORE IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW A SQUALL LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LAST
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS ANY CHANGES AS NEEDED
AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF WHAT ULTIMATELY MOVES INTO THE AREA
IS PROVING DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.

.LONG TERM...

NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING
AND DRYING OUT OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER END OF THE IFR
CATEGORY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY ISSUES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. MESOSCALE MODELING HAS SLOWED DOWN TIMING FROM WHAT
THE EVENING SHIFT WAS LOOKING AT. WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS ON
TIMING WITH 12Z TAF PACKAGE BASED ON LATEST MESOSCALE MODELING
SOLUTIONS. WILL TRY TO USE ABOUT A 2 HOUR WINDOW WHERE TSRA WILL BE
PREDOMINANT. BASED ON LATEST HRRR SOLUTION...CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
MOST OR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z SUNDAY. LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE SOME WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFTER TODAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRONT NOT LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  68  81  67 /  90  70  70  30
BTR  82  70  84  68 /  90  50  70  30
ASD  84  68  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
MSY  83  73  82  71 /  60  50  60  30
GPT  83  72  84  67 /  60  40  60  30
PQL  84  69  83  67 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>058-071-072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG...98/SO
REST OF DISCUSSION...35




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