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000
FXUS64 KLCH 212345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC THRU THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A LIGHT AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE TERMINALS. CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 212342
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD DIMINISHING QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINAL
AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THIS
AREAS WEATHER ATTM. THETAE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM NE OK ITO CENTRAL AR AND WEST CENTRAL MS AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR ITSELF INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A CU FIELD IN THE 4-5KFT LAYER DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING
THE TXK/SHV/TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CEILINGS
AT THESE HEIGHTS WED MORNING BUT FOR NOW...LEFT CEILINGS OUT OF
THE TERMINALS. WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF LOWER VSBYS AT THE
MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z BUT DRIER AIR MAY NOT ALLOW THIS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AND NE WINDS
PREVAILING NEAR 5-8KTS BEYOND 14Z WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 212058
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A DRY TONGUE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WORK EWRD FROM THE PLAINS AND WILL HOLD
SERVE OVER OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE CURRENT AIR
MASS AND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT MORE THIS EVENING
WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS EAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROF SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
STILL LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR NWRN CWA SO HAVE HELD WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S OVER OUR SRN TIER CWA THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOUTH WINDS FINALLY RETURNING. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE DAY NEXT TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
DECENT MOISTURE SUPPLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  80  51  76  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
MLU  52  79  47  75  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
DEQ  50  77  47  73  47 /   0   0  10  20  10
TXK  54  78  49  74  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  50  77  46  72  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
TYR  56  80  52  76  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  54  79  49  76  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  55  83  52  79  52 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 212040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS TO SLOW AS THIS OCCURS AND THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA AS WELL AS
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE AT A MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST
AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 80S AND HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST FOR THIS.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE
INVESTIGATING AT THIS TIME. NO IMMEDIATE IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S TRACK INCREASES
QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SPLITTING IN HALF
WITH ONE PORTION BEING PICKED UP WITH THE WEEKEND TROUGH AND ANOTHER
BEING LEFT BEHIND. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN WITH WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
LEFTOVER ENERGY. AT THE LEAST IT WOULD BE STUCK IN A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN REGIME IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. MAY NEED TO MONITOR
THIS NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND BODIES OF
WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL MOVE THROUGH
KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW.

KEG
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
THUS... MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  56  79  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  52  77  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  62  78  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  55  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  50  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211903
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXARKANA...WILL REBUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WHERE ITS TEMPORARILY STALLS.

THE DOME WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING ITS
TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...KEEPING THE
NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE
RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A TRAVELING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSPORT PATCHY CIRRUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SEMI-TRANSPARENT CLOUDS MAY PARTIALLY
OBSCURE THE SOLAR ECLIPSE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
AN IMPRESSIVE SUNSET IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE
TABLE VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

A GREAT PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  81  56  74  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  61  81  57  76  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  56  80  50  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  54  74  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

JT
$$











000
FXUS64 KSHV 211715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1215 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014


.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU BETWEEN
22/08Z-22/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 211708
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1208 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
580 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OK TODAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. THIS COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PATCHY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z MAINLY NEAR INLAND
BODIES OF WATER. IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NONE. A SEABREEZE WILL
MOVE THROUGH KGPT BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z AND WILL BRING TEMPORARY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

$$

KEG






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211623
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK SHIFTING SWRD THIS MORNING FROM S AR/SE OK HAS
GRADUALLY BEGUN TO ERODE AND SHOULD FURTHER DIMINISH INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/N LA. THE CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED TEMPERATURE
RISE OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
DEW POINTS AND SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA.
/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  80  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  78  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211608
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH NE WINDS 6-10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  59  82  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
KBPT  60  82  58  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
KAEX  54  80  50  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  58  81  55  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  59  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 211124
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 21/12Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CIGS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...MAINLY OVER N LA...S AR...AND NE TX WHICH WILL BECOME
SCATTERED MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. SOME PATCHY VSBYS BETWEEN 3 AND
5 MI IN FOG/HAZE TIL 14Z THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 22/09Z.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 210900
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND QUIET NIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES SITTING OVER THE
REGION. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACRS THE AREA ON WLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE WINDS IN THE LOWER LVLS WERE NELY. LATEST UA/WV
ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND THIS
WAS PUSHING A SWATH OF DRIER AIR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A GENERALLY DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. A NARROW AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE E
COAST. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING BOOST OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CNTL CONUS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AND THUS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTN
WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT...BUT OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACRS TX AND LA WHILE THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. AT THIS
TIME...RAIN CHCS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES
RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS...IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOWER PRES NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH WHILE THE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NE AWAY FM
THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  57  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  83  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  82  54  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  83  58  81  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLIX 210729
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
229 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS WILL BE PRETTY SHORT AND SWEET SINCE THERE/S NOT A WHOLE LOT
TO DISCUSS. ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE
FORECAST AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST
THINKING HASN/T CHANGED.

A PERSISTENT LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL REINFORCE COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PLEASANT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND THE LOWS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID/UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME VERY GRADUAL MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE
ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BEYOND ABOUT
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION TODAY.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE GRADIENT FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING
THE NORTHEAST FLOW TO DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
ALSO FALL BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.  THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF SOUTH INTERACTS WITH A REGION OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  53  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  82  56  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  52  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  79  62  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  79  55  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  80  50  77  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...32
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS AREA THRU MID WEEK. TEMPS WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE FAIRLY
CLOSELY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER MID LVL INVERSION
AS SEEN ON NAM. SOME SLIGHLY DRIER AIR MAY GET PULLED INTO SW
AR...OUT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY WED
NIGHT ACROSS SW AR. MID LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ALONG BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
VERY MARGINAL...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING TO SET UP OVER
CENTRAL TO EAST TX DURG THE WEEKEND...AND WITH INCREASING SOUTH
FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE...WILL SEE TEMPS BECMG UNSEASONALLY
WARM THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO APPROACH CLOSE
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK TO PLACE 20 POPS NORTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  58  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  81  54  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  79  54  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10  20
TXK  80  56  77  51  75 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  79  52  76  49  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  82  59  80  54  79 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  82  58  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  84  58  83  54  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 210505
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS A DRY AND
STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  82  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  62  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210505
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS A DRY AND
STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  53  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  83  56  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  82  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  82  62  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  81  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  52  78  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210457
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS DID EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
AFTER 21/14Z WHEN WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST 4-7 KNOTS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 22/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 210449
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED TAFS AND THINKING AS
WE REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT OF A BROKEN RECORD PATTERN. FORECAST TIME-
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY CIRRUS AFFECTING THE
REGION...THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. COULD SEE A LITTLE
MORE WIND IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SRN
SITES...AS THE HIGH PUSHES EWD AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT
DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 210252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...NEAR CLIMO AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210233 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210233 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING WHICH IS LEADING TO LITTLE IF ANY DRY AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS KEPT DEWPOINT VALUES SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED.
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE MIN TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AREAWIDE FOR
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  52  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  52  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  54  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  56  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  52  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 202117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SHORT VERSION IS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LONG
VERSION WONT BE THAT TERRIBLY LONG. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS NEAR THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTLINES AND RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES
OF A LOW CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE
CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
STILL NO RAIN WITH LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S
TRACK INCREASES QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. IT COULD GET PICKED UP BY
THE LATE WEEK TROUGH AND HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IF THAT DOESNT
HAPPEN...IT COULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BE STUCK IN A LOW STEERING
CURRENT REGIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THUS...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ALSO FORECAST THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  82  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 202117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SHORT VERSION IS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LONG
VERSION WONT BE THAT TERRIBLY LONG. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS NEAR THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTLINES AND RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES
OF A LOW CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE
CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
STILL NO RAIN WITH LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S
TRACK INCREASES QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. IT COULD GET PICKED UP BY
THE LATE WEEK TROUGH AND HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IF THAT DOESNT
HAPPEN...IT COULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BE STUCK IN A LOW STEERING
CURRENT REGIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THUS...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ALSO FORECAST THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  82  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 202101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19







000
FXUS64 KSHV 202101
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 201921
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

JT

$$













000
FXUS64 KLCH 201921
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ...VICINITY DENISON TX...WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DOME WILL RE-FORM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING EASTWARD
ACROSS LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

FURTHER UP...A COOL DEPRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER
DESERT OLD MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS GENERATING CIRRUS
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE
TRANSPORTING THE CIRRUS NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT...EXITING THE COASTAL
WATERS BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.

WEAK ADVECTIVE COOLING WILL BEGIN IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE WEAKER...DUE TO ADVECTING
PACIFIC CIRRUS AND POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

FOR TUESDAY...THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT
NORMAL...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...

THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE
VALUES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE NEW BEAVER MOON WILL OCCUR THIS THURSDAY...BRINGING ABOUT
LARGE CHANGES-IN-WATER ELEVATION AT THE COAST. ABOUT 2 FEET WILL
SEPARATE THE LOWER LOW TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MID MORNING) FROM
THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE (OCCURRING EARLY TO MIDAFTERNOON).

&&

.OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  82  60  80  55 /  10  10   0   0   0
KBPT  58  81  61  80  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
KAEX  54  81  55  79  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  80  54 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

JT

$$












000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 201723
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MLU FROM 21/10Z-21/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS ON TUESDAY.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  82  54  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
MLU  51  82  50  76  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  51  79  51  76  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  54  80  52  76  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  80  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  55  81  59  80  54 /  10   0   0   0   0
GGG  52  82  55  79  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
LFK  54  83  57  81  53 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 201720
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1220 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION INDICATED ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. THE RESULT IS
VFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF
ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

$$
KEG




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201613
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE FEATURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY SWRD IN ERN OK/NRN AR
WITH A FEW ISOLD SHWRS DEVELOPING. SOME OF THE SHWRS MAY AFFECT
OUR FAR NRN TIER COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SW AR. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...TWEAKED
DEW POINTS JUST A BIT TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 201551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND 6-8 KTS TODAY AND
TUE AFTERNOONS...LIKELY BECOMING L&V AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

24

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  56  83  59  82  54 /  10  10  10   0   0
KBPT  58  83  61  81  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
KAEX  53  82  55  79  49 /  10  10   0  10   0
KLFT  57  83  58  82  53 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 201312
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
812 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

...12Z SOUNDING...

A SHALLOW...BUT STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION WAS NOTED IN THE
SOUNDING THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE FULLY DECOUPLED FROM THE
REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS TURNED CALM AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...THERE WAS A NEARLY
15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE TOP OF THE INVERSION 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND TO THE SURFACE. ABOVE THIS INVERSION
LAYER...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN
FACT...ANOTHER ELEVATED INVERSION WAS NOTED FROM 950 TO 925MB DUE
TO AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THIS CONTINUED DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS ALSO DROPPED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN FROM
0.72 INCHES LAST EVENING TO 0.64 INCHES THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

24

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  83  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  58 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 201153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT NE WIND.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

24

MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  83  59 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  58 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VRBL. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200916
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  56  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  59 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200916
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  56  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  59 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200916
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  56  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  59 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200916
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA/WV ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER LVLS...AND THIS IS INDICATED ON IR IMAGERY
AS WELL WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST ACRS THE REGION. AT
THE SFC...THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY IS NOW STALLED
ACRS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME ISLTD
SHOWERS MARKING THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY ON RADAR/SATELLITE.
HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WAS BRINGING LT NELY WINDS AND
COOL QUIET CONDITIONS TO SW LA AND SE TX. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE RUNNING FM AROUND 50 ACRS CNTL LA TO THE LOWER 60S
ACRS LOWER SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THIS WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL BE REINFORCED FROM
THE N AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES S THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
NELY FLOW IN THE LOWER LVLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING NR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE PULLED NE ACRS FLA AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACRS THE CNTL CONUS.
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT
MOVES INTO NRN TX...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ENOUGH DRY
AIR OVER THE REGION TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
ALOFT. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (IN THE 50S).

&&

.MARINE...
LT TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRES RIDGES S AND W ACRS LA AND E TX. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY REQUIRING EXERCISE CAUTION
FLAGS...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
TOWARD FLA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  56  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
KBPT  81  58  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  79  53  82  55 /  10  10  10   0
KLFT  81  57  83  59 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200847
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200847
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
347 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNINGS WEATHER MAP SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED IN THE
UPPER LEVELS BY A SHORT WAVE TROF...POSSIBLY INITIATING A FEW
SHWRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREAS OF THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL
FOLLOW BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS A STRONG
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NEXT TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE ECM CONTINUES BE THE OUTLIER
WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM...BUT HAS BACKED OFF ON THE MOISTURE LEVELS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WILL STICK WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN BACK TO A
DRY FORECAST ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS EAST ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS TRENDING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80  54  82  54  78 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  79  51  82  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  76  51  79  51  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
TXK  76  54  80  52  76 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  76  51  80  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
TYR  80  55  81  59  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  79  52  82  55  79 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  82  54  83  57  81 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200805
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
305 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
CHANGED.

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR OUTER GULF WATERS WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SIDE EFFECT OF THE FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THAT THE DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOME SLOW
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 60S DEPENDING ON THE DAY AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG AT THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS FORECAST AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR SOUTH GULF
BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  78  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  80  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  80  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  80  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  58  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  79  54  81  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...11
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR KTXK AND
KELD...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25 KFT. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR KTXK AND
KELD...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25 KFT. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THAT OF LAST
NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SFC/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
LIGHT NERLY FLOW.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  81  58  84  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
KBPT  59  81  60  82  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
KAEX  50  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THAT OF LAST
NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SFC/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
LIGHT NERLY FLOW.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  81  58  84  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
KBPT  59  81  60  82  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
KAEX  50  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200251
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THAT OF LAST
NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SFC/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
LIGHT NERLY FLOW.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  81  58  84  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
KBPT  59  81  60  82  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
KAEX  50  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200251
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW THAT OF LAST
NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO EVENING
UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SFC/NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
LIGHT NERLY FLOW.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  81  58  84  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
KBPT  59  81  60  82  61 /   0  10   0   0   0
KAEX  50  80  54  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  56  82  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200234 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING AT
21/00Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL
PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25
KFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06





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