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000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030325
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS OUR REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...HAVE REMOVED A LOT OF THIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE 06Z TAF
PACKAGE. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY AT THE LFK/TYR/GGG TERMINALS. ALSO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AT THE
LFK/ELD TERMINALS.

OTHERWISE...DESCENT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF
HEATING ON THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LOOK FOR LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE NEAR 4-8KTS AREAWIDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 030219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
919 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS JUST ABOUT DIED OFF THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SO WILL ADJUST THE POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STILL HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...WITH LATEST
PWAT FROM THE 03/00Z KLCH SOUNDING AT 2.14 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL
RH OVER 75 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME DECENT RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
MOVING ONSHORE BEFORE DAY BREAK UP TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY LOOK GOOD...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP JUST PAST THE I-10
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  74  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 030213
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
913 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ONGOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL UNDER
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 022231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION COVERAGE ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND FOR THAT REASON...THINK WE CAN FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z
TERMINAL TAF PACKAGE. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HOWEVER...AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BUT FEEL
LIKE THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD SEE DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK TERMINAL
BUT IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCOLATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS ARE NOT
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV MEX
WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER BLEND ON
OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION COVERAGE ABOUT HALF OF WHAT IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND FOR THAT REASON...THINK WE CAN FORGO ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z
TERMINAL TAF PACKAGE. STILL DEALING WITH PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HOWEVER...AFFECTING THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS BUT FEEL
LIKE THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD SEE DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

STRONGER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AT THE LFK TERMINAL
BUT IF THIS CLOUD COVER DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MIX
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCOLATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS ARE NOT
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON UNTIL
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV MEX
WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER BLEND ON
OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KLCH 022210
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 022210
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
510 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCT SHRA/FEW TSRA ACROSS SE TX/C LA...MAINLY AWAY FROM TERMINALS
AT THE MOMENT. OVERALL...CONVECTION DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LEFT VCSH
THRU 01Z. OVERNIGHT...INTERMITTENT MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARDS
09-13Z AGAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DAMP GROUND AND NEARLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYER OF THE ATMS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...AND
SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND S OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR THU. THUS...BEGAN VCTS ~14Z...WITH A PROB30 GROUP
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR TSRA/MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS FROM 18-24Z FOR
BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 022103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 022103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26




000
FXUS64 KLCH 022103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 022103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
H5 UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SWATH OF PWAT AOA 2.0 INCHES NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN H5 HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY RESULTING IN LOWER POPS. AFTER SUNDAY...A SECOND H5 CUTOFF
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE REGION RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...POPS AND TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  95  72  94 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  74  92  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
BPT  73  90  74  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 022044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
GENERAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CHANGED MUCH. BUT
ALL IT TOOK WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE IN FROM
THE GULF. THE RESULTS FROM THIS CHANGE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON RADAR.
A WIDE BLANKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 12. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE INLAND VS ALONG THE COAST WHERE
MOST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL TODAY AND IT SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND SOON AND MOST OF THE INLAND SHOWERS DISSIPATED
BY 00Z-02Z. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE LA COAST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND THEN A SIMILAR REPEAT FOR THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE
COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DAILY POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
REBUILD ITSELF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
BEING EAST OF THIS AREA IN LA/MS...LIKELY TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH QUITE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
FROM THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TERMINALS IS DOING SO AT THIS TIME. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z-02Z BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  73  94 /  10  30  10  30
BTR  72  92  74  92 /  10  30  10  30
ASD  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30
MSY  77  88  77  89 /  20  50  20  40
GPT  77  89  78  90 /  20  50  20  30
PQL  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 022044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
GENERAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CHANGED MUCH. BUT
ALL IT TOOK WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE IN FROM
THE GULF. THE RESULTS FROM THIS CHANGE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON RADAR.
A WIDE BLANKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 12. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE INLAND VS ALONG THE COAST WHERE
MOST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL TODAY AND IT SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND SOON AND MOST OF THE INLAND SHOWERS DISSIPATED
BY 00Z-02Z. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE LA COAST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND THEN A SIMILAR REPEAT FOR THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE
COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DAILY POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
REBUILD ITSELF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
BEING EAST OF THIS AREA IN LA/MS...LIKELY TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH QUITE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
FROM THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TERMINALS IS DOING SO AT THIS TIME. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z-02Z BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  73  94 /  10  30  10  30
BTR  72  92  74  92 /  10  30  10  30
ASD  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30
MSY  77  88  77  89 /  20  50  20  40
GPT  77  89  78  90 /  20  50  20  30
PQL  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 022044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM... NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
GENERAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CHANGED MUCH. BUT
ALL IT TOOK WAS AN INVERTED TROUGH CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE IN FROM
THE GULF. THE RESULTS FROM THIS CHANGE CAN CLEARLY BE SEEN ON RADAR.
A WIDE BLANKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDS FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF LOUISIANA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 12. THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE INLAND VS ALONG THE COAST WHERE
MOST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT DONE. THE HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING WELL TODAY AND IT SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND SOON AND MOST OF THE INLAND SHOWERS DISSIPATED
BY 00Z-02Z. AFTER THAT...FAIRLY QUIET DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE ALONG THE LA COAST EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND THEN A SIMILAR REPEAT FOR THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE
COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CWA WILL REMAIN
SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKNESS ALOFT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DAILY POPS IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO
REBUILD ITSELF TO THE WEST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL
BEING EAST OF THIS AREA IN LA/MS...LIKELY TO HAVE CONTINUED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH QUITE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE
FROM THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TERMINALS IS DOING SO AT THIS TIME. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00Z-02Z BEFORE RETURNING TOMORROW.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  94  73  94 /  10  30  10  30
BTR  72  92  74  92 /  10  30  10  30
ASD  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30
MSY  77  88  77  89 /  20  50  20  40
GPT  77  89  78  90 /  20  50  20  30
PQL  76  90  76  90 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021848
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
148 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
BUMP HIGHS ANOTHER CATEGORY AND SHAVE DEEP E TX POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE TAKEN A BIG JUMP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WITH THE THICK MID DECK ALREADY NORTH OF SHREVEPORT THE
LOWER 90S WOULD NOT LIKELY HOLD. ALSO...WE HAVE TWEAKED POPS A
TAD WHERE CU FIELD HAS BEEN SLUGISH TO DEVELOP ANY TOWERS. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  96  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  94  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  94  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  93  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/07/19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE SRN SITES...BUT WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER NOTED
IN 12Z KLCH SOUNDING (AS WELL AS A HIGHER BUT DEEPER ONE ON THE
KLIX RAOB) WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN EACH
SITE GETS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ELECTED TO GO PREVAILING
RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER FOR KLFT/KARA...AND TEMPO SHOWERS AT
KLCH/KBPT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END WITH
SUNSET ALTHOUGH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MUCH/WHERE HAVE LED TO NO INCLUSION
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE SRN SITES...BUT WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER NOTED
IN 12Z KLCH SOUNDING (AS WELL AS A HIGHER BUT DEEPER ONE ON THE
KLIX RAOB) WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN EACH
SITE GETS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ELECTED TO GO PREVAILING
RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER FOR KLFT/KARA...AND TEMPO SHOWERS AT
KLCH/KBPT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END WITH
SUNSET ALTHOUGH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MUCH/WHERE HAVE LED TO NO INCLUSION
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE SRN SITES...BUT WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER NOTED
IN 12Z KLCH SOUNDING (AS WELL AS A HIGHER BUT DEEPER ONE ON THE
KLIX RAOB) WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN EACH
SITE GETS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ELECTED TO GO PREVAILING
RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER FOR KLFT/KARA...AND TEMPO SHOWERS AT
KLCH/KBPT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END WITH
SUNSET ALTHOUGH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MUCH/WHERE HAVE LED TO NO INCLUSION
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021808
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
108 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE
ADJACENT GULF WATERS ADVANCING SLOWLY NWD. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE SRN SITES...BUT WITH A GOOD DRY LAYER NOTED
IN 12Z KLCH SOUNDING (AS WELL AS A HIGHER BUT DEEPER ONE ON THE
KLIX RAOB) WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN EACH
SITE GETS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ELECTED TO GO PREVAILING
RAIN/VICINITY THUNDER FOR KLFT/KARA...AND TEMPO SHOWERS AT
KLCH/KBPT. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO COME TO AN END WITH
SUNSET ALTHOUGH LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS SOME CONVECTION COULD
PERSIST...UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MUCH/WHERE HAVE LED TO NO INCLUSION
WITH THIS PACKAGE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 021733
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. QUITE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KMCB AND
KHDC. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AND AMEND IF A TERMINAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 021733
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. QUITE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KMCB AND
KHDC. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AND AMEND IF A TERMINAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 021733
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. QUITE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KMCB AND
KHDC. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AND AMEND IF A TERMINAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 021733
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. QUITE
EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED ONSHORE FROM THE GULF DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH MOST
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS OF KMCB AND
KHDC. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS AND AMEND IF A TERMINAL IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  30  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021658
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA INHIBITING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
IN MOISTER AIR UNDERNEATH. CONVECTION THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
JUST OFFSHORE IN GULF AND NE MOVMT OF CELLS COULD POSSIBLY TRAJECT
TOWARDS KMLU LATER THIS AFTN...SO PLACED TSTM VCNTY AT THAT
TERMINAL BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT LIMITED IN
LACK OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OR RECENT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREA...BUT
IF SO...KLFK WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE ANY TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LGT VRBL WINDS ACROSS AREA TO REMAIN UNTIL
AT LEAST 03/15Z WITH ONLY SE WINDS AROUND 5 KTS AFTER THAT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  95  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  95  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  72  94  73  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO AFTERNOON POPS/SKY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADD 10 AT 10 CST RULE WITH OBS RANGING ALL THROUGH THE 80S. A
DENSE MID DECK IS WORKING OVER THE HEART OF THE ARKLATEX WITH LOW
80S AND LIGHT OR CALM SFC WINDS. RUSTON AND MONROE ARE IN THE
UPPER 80S WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. OUR RADAR
HAS A CLEAN SWEEP AND WITH LIMITED HEATING AND THAT MAY BE
THROUGH THE LUNCH HOUR.

OUR SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...BUT VERY DRY
ABOVE AN INVERSION AT 18KFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE NE FLOW ABOVE
THE INVERSION HAS WORKED DOWN A BIT LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOW TOPPED AND PERHAPS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. MIDDECK SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY UNTIL WE SEE BETTER
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAPOR SHOWS THE DRY AIR SPREADING SE
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS SLOWED ITS MOTION. THERE IS A
LITTLE VORT WORKING UP ACROSS W LA IN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY.
THIS MAY HELP WITH SOME CHANCE POPS FOR I-20 CORRIDOR LATER WITH
MORE HEATING AS THE MID DECK MOVES FARTHER NW.

THE HRRR SHOWS DECENT COVERAGE AND IS WHY WE LEFT CHANCE POPS.
SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE A MORE LIKELY EVENT IF THAT LITTLE VORT FAILS
TO SPREAD DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT DRIER AIR. THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO DECLINE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MAIN GULF LOW MOVES EASTWARD...TAKING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION
OUT OF REACH. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  94  72  96  73 /  30  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  92  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  92  73  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  92  72  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  94  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/09/19




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021546
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021546
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021546
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021546
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1046 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. 12Z UA SOUNDING INDICATES SLIGHTLY
LESS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...ADJUSTED POP AND QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. AREAS
FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON TSTORMS.
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS OVER SETX DUE TO
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  89  73  88  75 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  89  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  87  73  87  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...26



000
FXUS64 KLIX 021442
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 021442
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
942 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
TRENDS OVER LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN TOP
DOWN MOISTENING WITH A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM ABOUT 650 MB/12.5
KFT UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE. A MOSTLY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY
HAS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY UP TO JUST BELOW 950 MB/1900
FEET...THEN THERE IS A PERSISTENT DRY LAYER THAT WOULD INHIBIT
DEEP CONVECTION FROM 950 MB TO 650 MB. THIS DRY LAYER WILL BE
SHRINKING HOWEVER AS CUMULUS BASES/CONVECTIVE CLOUD HEIGHTS RISE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED FROM JUST
BELOW 1.25 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING TO NEAR 1.7 INCHES THIS
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH MU PARCEL CAPE
AT 2945 J/KG. THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS 90 DEGREES. DEEP
LAYER WIND PROFILE IS ALSO MORE SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING DEEPER
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY UP TO THE TROPOPAUSE.

THE GFS APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...SO THE STANDING FORECAST THAT FAVORS HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD WORK OUT AT LEAST SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HOWEVER RESIDUAL DRIER AIR OVER EASTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY KEEP COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MORE
ISOLATED. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  30  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  30  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  30  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 021154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...PATCHY -DZ/-RA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL LA EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAINLY S OF I-20 AND E OF I-49.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AROUND
MIDDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR GALVESTON BAY.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE BY 03/01Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY FOG AT
KELD...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 02/15Z...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY AFFECT KLFK NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021112
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021112
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021112
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021112
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
612 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...TROFFING EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND...BUT THE BULK OF TODAYS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RADAR
CURRENTLY SHOWING JUST SOME PATCHY STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
IMMEDIATE AREA...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR GALVESTON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WEAKENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 021039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DROPPED
INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... LAST NIGHT SOUNDING "LCH" INDICATED
PRECIP AROUND 2.08 INCHES.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE
GETTING ABSORBED IN THE FLOW BUT ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE REGION AND THE CHANCES OF RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO MODERATE THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WHICH
IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST
MONTH. IN ADDITION THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT WILL ALSO START TO SHOW
ITSELF IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD. ANYWAY WE HAVE MOVED BACK INTO A
WET PERIOD THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR THOSE LOOKING
FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT... THAT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
LCH  88  73  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
LFT  90  74  91  75 /  40  20  40  20
BPT  85  73  87  75 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 020912
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NWRD
ACROSS DEEP E TX...N LA...AND SE AR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO BLANKET THESE AREAS WHILE POINTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR ARE SKC. AS MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT OVER THE SE
HALF OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING. USING PERSISTENCE AS A GUIDE...DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEEK AND
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL IN
OUR WEATHER PATTERN...SENDING TEMPERATURES HIGHER INTO THE MID 90S
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 90S FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT IT
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY
OUR SRN ZONES.

RELIEF FROM THE LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE AT SEEING WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  95  74 /  30  20  20  10
MLU  93  72  96  73 /  40  20  20  10
DEQ  93  69  94  70 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
ELD  92  70  95  72 /  30  20  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
GGG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
LFK  91  71  93  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KLIX 020902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  20  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 020902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ON THE SCOPE THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BATON
ROUGE METRO AREA THIS MORNING AS AN FEATURE ALONG THE TX/LA COAST
SPREADS SOME RAINFALL ACROSS SE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA. THIS
FEATURE IS VERY APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER FOR TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE
TRIGGER FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
COVERAGE THIS MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP SOME. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 90S IF FULL SUNSHINE IS
REALIZED. WILL HAVE TO POSSIBLY MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING AS GENERALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STICKS AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT NIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LOW 70S. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-
FL040. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB
AND KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT TODAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. MAY
SEE A FEW TS NEAR THE COAST BUT AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL WILL BE
LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  72  94  71 /  20  10  30  10
BTR  93  73  93  73 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  20
MSY  91  77  91  76 /  30  20  40  20
GPT  90  76  90  74 /  20  20  30  20
PQL  91  74  90  73 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 020442
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
WITH VCSH AT KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT KLFT AND KARA AFTER 02/08Z
WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG MIXING IN WITH THE
LIGHT RAIN. ALSO...SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AT KAEX DUE TO PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANYTIME DURING THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  94 /  40  50  20  30
LCH  72  88  74  88 /  30  60  20  40
LFT  74  90  73  92 /  20  50  20  30
BPT  73  86  76  88 /  40  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020441
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. ALL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG AT THE ELD/LFK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SW AR AND NW LA
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA.

EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5-10KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  10  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  10  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  10  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  10  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/13



000
FXUS64 KLIX 020249
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
949 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS. IR SAT IMAGERY DISPLAYED CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPS WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. HRRR
SHOWED QPF VALUES OF TRACE TO 0.01 SPREADING NORTH OVER
ATCHAFALAYA BASIN THROUGH 12Z. 00Z NAM REVEALED MODEL SOUNDING
JUST SOUTH OF BTR WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT COLUMN WITH
MOIST LAYER ABV 15KFT AROUND 06Z...THEN LOWERING TO 3KFT BY 12Z.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY WORK INLAND...SO PUSHED ISOLATED COVERAGE TO
BTR AND WEST BACK OF MS RIVER THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35


MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  72  91  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  74  92  72 /  20  10  20  20
ASD  93  72  91  73 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  92  77  91  76 /  10  10  30  20
GPT  92  75  90  75 /  10  10  20  20
PQL  93  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 020237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
937 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
REGION. SKIES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT DUE TO PLACEMENT OF UPPER-LOW ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 012301
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
601 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS S AR/NW LA AND NE TX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS AS WELL
AS THE MLU TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO HIT THESE WITH
VCTS AND A SMALL TEMPO GROUP BUT SHOULD SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. WHAT IS
LEFT OVER IS PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND THE LFK
TERMINAL...EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WE WILL BE
DEALING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING AT THE LFK TERMINAL WITH RANDOM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH CLOSER TO MID
DAY INTO THE AFTN ON WED.

&&

13

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

VII/13




000
FXUS64 KLCH 012049
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

.LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11



000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 012031
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015


.SHORT TERM... UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. UNDER
THAT REGION EXISTS AN AREA OF WEAKNESS THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE THAT AREA ANOTHER PLUME OF
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN GULF THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE WESTERN FRIDGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN TODAY. NOT MUCH OF
THIS IS BEING REALIZED BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE SO HAVE KEPT
MINIMAL POPS FROM MORNING FCST UPDATE. IF ANY CONVECTION DOES OCCUR
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. DID ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES
FOR ALONG I-12 AND NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MODELS MISSED
IT FOR THIS MORNING AND SIMILAR LOWER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT FOG.

.LONG TERM... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST LOOKS TO PINCH OFF ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OVER TEXAS AND MOVE EAST THRU FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
TO THE EAST WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT
CONDITIONS WHICH WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SO HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS FCST 20 TO TO 40 PERCENT POPS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THIS SLIGHTLY WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF HIGH PRESSURE
SUBSIDENCE. COULD EVEN SEE COVERAGE UP TO 50 PERCENT BY SUNDAY.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. ONLY
TERMINAL WHERE THREAT MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS FAR OUT
IN FORECAST WOULD BE KHUM. 35

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF FORECAST AFTER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVES OUT OF
THE GULF. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  72  93 /  10  20  10  30
BTR  74  92  72  93 /  10  20  20  30
ASD  72  91  73  91 /  10  20  20  30
MSY  77  91  76  90 /  10  30  20  40
GPT  75  90  75  90 /  10  20  20  30
PQL  73  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEEPENED SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
HAS PIVOTED INTO SE TX...TAPPING INTO RICHER GULF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED RW/ISOLD TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE NORTH OF THE EAST TX
LAKES AND WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF REGION SOUTH OF I-30
THRU THE EARLY EVE HOURS. THIS SIMILAR PATTERN MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THIS NEAR STNRY UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED INDICATIONS OF LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GULF BY WEEKEND MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH WITH
590 UPPER RIDGING OVER AREA. AFTN TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S...COULD THEREFORE CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S UNDER THIS
SCENARIO./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  74  95 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  74  94  73  96 /  20  30  30  20
DEQ  69  93  70  96 /  10  20  20  10
TXK  71  94  73  97 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  72  94  73  95 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  73  91  73  96 /  20  30  30  10
GGG  72  91  73  94 /  20  30  30  20
LFK  71  90  72  94 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011800 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF E TX S OF I-20...NEAR A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS CENTERED JUST SW OF LFK. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD
NNW ACROSS E TX S OF I-30...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/LFK
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INCLUDED TEMPO MENTION FOR THESE AREAS...WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/SVR TURBULENCE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS
BEFORE THEY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCT
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER E BENEATH THE DENSER AC SHIELD OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFFECTING THE
SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS...THUS HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER ATTM
ALTHOUGH AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY PENDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE...THE SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH
AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT THAT WILL
LINGER OVER E TX/SW AR. PATCHY FG AGAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT LFK
BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE AC SHIELD IN
PLACE. IN FACT...THESE AC CIGS MAY LOWER AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY OVER
DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS ADDITIONAL SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THESE
AREAS. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE LFK TERMINAL ONLY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. VRB WINDS 6KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LT/VRB OR LIGHT SSE AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE ERN TX
CUTOFF LOW...APPROACHING THE SWRN TERMINALS WHILE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE NOTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BASED ON
THESE RETURNS HAVE BROUGHT IN PREVAILING RAIN/TEMPO THUNDER TO
KBPT/KLCH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY MOVES
NNEWD. ELSEWHERE HAVE ONLY GONE VICINITY...CERTAINLY THE REMAINING
SITES HAVE A DECENT SHOT AT EXPERIENCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
BUT COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO
MENTION ATTM (CAN AMEND IF NEEDED). CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
WITH SUNSET...THEREAFTER EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE LOW PROGGED TO STILL BE HANGING AROUND SERN TX INTO TOMORROW...
COMBO OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE/HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS
BY MID-MORNING SO VCSH HAS BEEN INSERTED FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT
THE SWRN SITES.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 011711
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH BASES FL035-FL040.
ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION
LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED AND ONLY AFFECT KHUM OR KBTR. THREAT IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE FOR A FEW HOURS AT KHUM...KMCB AND
KHDC. ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE AFTER 18Z. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 011545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO RAMP
UP BEYOND 2 INCHES IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SE TX AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LA
AND INCREASED POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  72  94  71 /  40  30  20  20
LCH  84  74  90  73 /  60  30  50  30
LFT  88  74  92  73 /  40  20  30  30
BPT  84  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011529
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1029 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OFF SE TX COAST BEGINNING TO SURGE ONSHORE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SW LA AS LCH
SOUNDING MOISTURE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...WITH PCPN WATER OVER 2
INCHES. WILL LET FCST OF CHANCE COVERAGE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND
ISOLD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONTINUE AS IS. ALTHOUGH THIS
CONVECTION MAY NOT PROPAGATE MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE SEEN VERY ISOLD AND SMALL...BUT SOMEWHAT
INTENSE CELLS MAINLY JUST NORTH OF CWA BOUNDARIES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS...AND CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...WILL LEAVE AROUND 90 EAST TX
LAKES TO MID 90S NORTH OF I-20 FCST AS IS ALSO. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 011310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
810 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CREATED PATCHES OF FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA TO NO LESS THAN 3 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ABOVE
THIS SURFACE MOISTURE...DRIER AIR EXISTS UNTIL 27000 FEET WHERE
SOME MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED DUE TO CLOUDS BLOWING OFF FROM
THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TODAY REACH THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDDAY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH A PEAK WIND SPEED
OF 52 KNOTS AT 45000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A SUCCESSFUL FLIGHT LASTING 106 MINUTES
REACHING A HEIGHT OF 20.4 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND. THE BALLOON
BURST NEAR FOLSOM 27 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 011151
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
AREAWIDE BY 01/15Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HRS AS AN UPPER TROUGH BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER SE TX. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE I-20 TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. CONVECTION MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HRS BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED AFTER 02/00Z DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISON FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 011126
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN TODAY WILL LIMIT VSBY AND LOWER CEILINGS CONDITIONS
AT TIMES... CHANCES FOR RAINS WILL BE GREATEST IN SE TX AND SW
LA. OTHERWISE PRECIP POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  94  71  94 /  30  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  73  90 /  30  50  30  30
LFT  74  92  73  92 /  20  30  30  30
BPT  73  89  73  90 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING NWRD
THIS MORNING ACROSS SE TX...INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH AMPLE HEATING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN PLAY...EXPECT A BIT MORE CONVECTION TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...CLOSER TO LOW ITSELF AND THUS THE ADDED LIFT
TO HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOW TO MID CHANCE POPS WILL
COVER OUR SRN ZONES WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG I-20 AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE UPPER 80S.

THIS GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
THE UPPER LOW LINGERING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP AT MINIMUM SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLAY ALMOST AREA WIDE...KEEPING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER OUR SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DESPITE THE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY HELP NUDGE OUR
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT HIGHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MID
90S AREA WIDE AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 90 READINGS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW ASIDE FROM ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE BETTER CONFINED TO OUR ERN AND SRN SECTIONS WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER BY
COMPARISION FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  95  73 /  20  20  20  20
MLU  96  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20  20  10  10
TXK  93  70  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  94  71  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  92  71  93  72 /  20  20  20  20
LFK  90  70  93  71 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010853
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYED OVER LCH
COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT ANOTHER DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S
TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THE AREA IS IN SORT OF A
LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MOISTURE CONTENT STARTS COME
UP FROM TODAY FORWARD. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK
WHERE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL. AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK EXPECT A CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 13/MH


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INSISTS ON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. AGAIN AS STATED BEFORE THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MOISTURE AND WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AND WENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 90S
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PACK. SCT040 DURING THE
MORNING AT A FEW COASTAL SITES AND SCT060 BY AFTERNOON. VIS
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR AROUND 5 TO 6SM DURING AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SH/TS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE MISS
RIVER THU INTO EARLY FRI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS OR BETTER AT TIMES AS IT MOVE OUT OF THE GULF. AS THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND...CONDITIONS WILL NORMALIZE WITH RESPECT TO
AN AUGUST PATTERN OF WEAK WIND FIELDS AND NOCTURNAL TS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  71  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
BTR  93  72  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  93  72  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  92  76  92  76 /  10  10  20  10
GPT  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
PQL  93  72  92  74 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 010839
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  71 /  30  30  20  20
LCH  87  74  90  73 /  70  30  50  30
LFT  91  74  92  73 /  30  20  30  30
BPT  86  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 010839
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAFAYETTE. RADAR SHOWED
RAIN DEVELOPING NEAT THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD. LAKE CHARLES
APPEARED TO BE NEAR THE APEX OF THE MAXIMUM FEED AND THEREFORE
RAIN WAS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
CITY.

ONCE AGAIN TODAYS FOCUS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS OUR
REGION. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.85. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS GENERALLY MEANS IS
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO INITIATE CONVECTION THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
JUICED UP. THERE IS SOME WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST WHICH
COULD ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
FIXED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LOOKS LIKE RAIN INITIATE TOWARDS
MORNING AND THEN RAMPS UP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEN WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AREAS OF CONVECTION DISSIPATE...ONLY TO
REDEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A WEAK TROUGH BY THURSDAY SO
COULD SEE A BRIEF LOWERING OF POP THURSDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. THEREFORE...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND THE DAILY TRIGGER...DAYTIME
HEATING.

LOOKS LIKE OVERALL THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WOULD EXPECT BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POPS AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  93  72  94  71 /  30  30  20  20
LCH  87  74  90  73 /  70  30  50  30
LFT  91  74  92  73 /  30  20  30  30
BPT  86  73  89  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 010530
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1230 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 02/06Z. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FOG NEAR DAYBREAK AT KLFK AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
ALSO AROUND 2 KFT. OTHERWISE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS/CIRRUS AROUND 25
KFT OVERNIGHT AND MIDDLE CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH
BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA NEAR AND
INLAND OF THE GULF COAST. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE NEAR AND AFTER MID DAY TUESDAY SPREADING IN
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. KLFK WILL HAVE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH OTHER LOCATIONS 20 PERCENT OR LESS. WILL
MENTION VCTS IN SOME OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THIS CYCLE.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST 4-8 KNOTS TUESDAY...AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 6 KNOTS FOR
PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO GRADUALY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT SKIES TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY PARTLY CLOUDY
AREAWIDE. OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME EXCEPT TO
REFRESH WORDING TO ELIMINATE EARLIER CONVECTION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
MLU  72  96  73  95 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  69  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  94  71  93 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  72  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  20
TYR  72  92  72  94 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  72  92  71  93 /  10  20  20  20
LFK  74  90  71  93 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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