[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191731
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER 20/00Z. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR TYPE PATCHY FOG MAY
OCCUR AT TAF SITES THAT RECEIVE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
STATIONALRY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NE TX THRU N LA. SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES ACROSS C AND S LA ALONG THE U.S. 190 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
..ROUGHLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS.
THE NEXT PERTUBATION WITHIN THE TROF (SHOWS UP NICELY VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) IS MOVING SE ACROSS E TX AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LIFT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS C AND S LA MAINLY N
OF I-10...MAINLY SCT ELSEWHERE. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER...LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS C LA TO THE MID 80S...AND KEPT UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWER ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS HOURLY TEMPS
AS WELL. OTHER FORECAST PARAMTERS ON TRACK.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH PERIODIC LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS LIKELY. KAEX WILL
EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CEILINGS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO START THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SE BY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW. WITHIN THE MEAN
ERN CONUS TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...WITH ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE OVER WESTERN KS/OK.
AT THE SFC...WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST TO WEST ALONG I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA...THEN BENDS SW TWD
AUSTIN TX. TO THE SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS FL
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
RADAR HAD BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. BOTH INTENSITY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT COVERAGE HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THEN...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WOODVILLE TO BUNKIE LINE. A SECONDARY AREA IS
NOTED OVER COASTAL SW LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC ON WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR GIVEN MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DRIVERS...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE AT SOMETHING OF
A MAXIMUM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AS THE INITIAL AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL IS ALSO SHUNTED EAST. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND ALBEIT WEAKER
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AND THE DIFFERENCE IN POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON IS A RELATIVELY MINOR 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
90...BUT COULD SWAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW PENDING RAINFALL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TX FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL GET CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS/TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND CLIMO POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE...AND
THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS GENERALLY WELL COVERED...SO FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE.
13
MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 30 10 30
KBPT 87 76 91 75 92 / 40 20 20 10 30
KAEX 85 71 91 72 91 / 60 20 30 10 30
KLFT 87 74 90 74 91 / 50 30 30 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 191532
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1032 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS REALLY HARD TO PICK
OUT ON A SURFACE MAP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND ACTIVITY ON
RADAR IMAGERY DO GIVE HINTS TO THE GENERAL LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY POP UP IN THE I20 CORRIDOR.
CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN DECENT SHAPE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT I DID LOWER DEEP EAST TEXAS A CATEGORY. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE DEEP EAST TEXAS OR CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...BUT TO BE HONEST MY CONFIDENCE IS REALLY LACKING ON
STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES
COMING TO THE 1100 AM UPDATE...AS I WILL REMOVE MORNING FOG AND
BECOMING WORDING.
ELEVEN
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
SCATTERED TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING...AIDED BY A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST COVERAGE FOR THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF A KMLU TO KJSO LINE. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED CU BETWEEN 4 AND 5
KFT...DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET. SURFACE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. /14/
&&
.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 72 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
MLU 89 69 92 71 94 / 30 10 20 10 10
DEQ 90 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 20 10 20
TXK 89 69 92 72 93 / 10 10 20 10 10
ELD 90 67 92 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
TYR 90 73 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
GGG 90 71 94 73 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
LFK 87 72 94 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191507
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1007 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STATIONALRY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS NE TX THRU N LA. SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES ACROSS C AND S LA ALONG THE U.S. 190 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING
...ROUGHLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST EVENINGS MCS.
THE NEXT PERTUBATION WITHIN THE TROF (SHOWS UP NICELY VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) IS MOVING SE ACROSS E TX AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE LIFT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUS...THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS C AND S LA MAINLY N
OF I-10...MAINLY SCT ELSEWHERE. WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER...LOWERED
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS C LA TO THE MID 80S...AND KEPT UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWER ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS MORNINGS HOURLY TEMPS
AS WELL. OTHER FORECAST PARAMTERS ON TRACK.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH PERIODIC LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS LIKELY. KAEX WILL
EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CEILINGS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO START THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SE BY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW. WITHIN THE MEAN
ERN CONUS TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...WITH ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE OVER WESTERN KS/OK.
AT THE SFC...WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST TO WEST ALONG I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA...THEN BENDS SW TWD
AUSTIN TX. TO THE SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS FL
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
RADAR HAD BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. BOTH INTENSITY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT COVERAGE HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THEN...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WOODVILLE TO BUNKIE LINE. A SECONDARY AREA IS
NOTED OVER COASTAL SW LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC ON WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR GIVEN MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DRIVERS...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE AT SOMETHING OF
A MAXIMUM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AS THE INITIAL AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL IS ALSO SHUNTED EAST. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND ALBEIT WEAKER
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AND THE DIFFERENCE IN POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON IS A RELATIVELY MINOR 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
90...BUT COULD SWAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW PENDING RAINFALL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TX FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL GET CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS/TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND CLIMO POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE...AND
THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS GENERALLY WELL COVERED...SO FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE.
13
MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 87 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 30 10 30
KBPT 87 76 91 75 92 / 40 20 20 10 30
KAEX 85 71 91 72 91 / 60 20 30 10 30
KLFT 87 74 90 74 91 / 50 30 30 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191127
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH PERIODIC LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS LIKELY. KAEX WILL
EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CEILINGS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB TO START THEN
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SE BY TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW. WITHIN THE MEAN
ERN CONUS TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...WITH ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE OVER WESTERN KS/OK.
AT THE SFC...WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST TO WEST ALONG I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA...THEN BENDS SW TWD
AUSTIN TX. TO THE SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS FL
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
RADAR HAD BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. BOTH INTENSITY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT COVERAGE HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THEN...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WOODVILLE TO BUNKIE LINE. A SECONDARY AREA IS
NOTED OVER COASTAL SW LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC ON WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR GIVEN MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DRIVERS...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE AT SOMETHING OF
A MAXIMUM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AS THE INITIAL AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL IS ALSO SHUNTED EAST. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND ALBEIT WEAKER
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AND THE DIFFERENCE IN POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON IS A RELATIVELY MINOR 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
90...BUT COULD SWAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW PENDING RAINFALL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TX FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL GET CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS/TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND CLIMO POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE...AND
THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS GENERALLY WELL COVERED...SO FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE.
13
MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 30 10 30
KBPT 90 75 91 75 92 / 40 20 20 10 30
KAEX 87 71 91 72 91 / 60 20 30 10 30
KLFT 89 74 90 74 91 / 50 30 30 10 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 191050
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
550 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW. WITHIN THE MEAN
ERN CONUS TROF...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS...WITH ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE OVER WESTERN KS/OK.
AT THE SFC...WEAK AND QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
EAST TO WEST ALONG I-20 OVER NORTHERN LA...THEN BENDS SW TWD
AUSTIN TX. TO THE SOUTH...THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGES WWD ACROSS FL
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
RADAR HAD BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS. BOTH INTENSITY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT COVERAGE HAVE
INCREASED SINCE THEN...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
ALONG/SOUTH OF A WOODVILLE TO BUNKIE LINE. A SECONDARY AREA IS
NOTED OVER COASTAL SW LA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD RETREATING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET REAL SPECIFIC ON WHEN AND WHERE RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR GIVEN MULTIPLE MESOSCALE DRIVERS...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE AT SOMETHING OF
A MAXIMUM FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY...AS THE INITIAL AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST AND THE
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL IS ALSO SHUNTED EAST. AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AND THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND ALBEIT WEAKER
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...AND THE DIFFERENCE IN POPS FROM MORNING TO
AFTERNOON IS A RELATIVELY MINOR 10 TO 20 PERCENT DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND
90...BUT COULD SWAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW PENDING RAINFALL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING AS THE SECONDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND
POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TX FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL GET CAUGHT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS/TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND CLIMO POPS APPEAR APPROPRIATE...AND
THE PREVIOUS FCST HAD THIS GENERALLY WELL COVERED...SO FEW CHANGES
WERE MADE.
13
&&
.MARINE...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE THE BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 75 91 75 / 50 20 30 10
KBPT 90 75 91 75 / 40 20 20 10
KAEX 87 71 91 72 / 60 20 30 10
KLFT 89 74 90 74 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 190900
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL LIKELY TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL ACT
UPON THE AMPLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL OCCUR BY
FRIDAY...AND THAT IN COMBINATION WITH AN EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SERVE TO MINIMIZE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS BY THE DEPARTED MID WEEK EASTERN CONUS BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WEAKNESS AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN ACTIVITY COULD
EXTEND AS LATE AS 06Z BEFORE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. AM
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND UNTIL THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS WEAK BUT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. AM
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 68 91 68 / 50 30 20 10
BTR 90 71 92 71 / 50 30 20 10
ASD 90 71 91 70 / 50 30 30 10
MSY 90 74 91 74 / 50 30 30 10
GPT 89 72 90 72 / 50 30 30 10
PQL 89 70 91 70 / 50 30 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190836
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LUFKIN TO NATCHITOCHES AND
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WINNFIELD AND CLARKS BEGINNING TO SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS POTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. EXPECTING
THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SLIDES EAST. COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
AREAWIDE...WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA WHERE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ABUNDANT.
DENSE FOG EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COLD FRONT. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE
ARKLATEX WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH
AN UPPER-TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION EACH DAY. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
INTENSE RAINFALL WITH TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTN...SHIFTED SOUTH OF AREA AND DIMINISHED DURG THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A VERY SATURATED GROUND REMAINS ACROSS MOST OF
CWA...COUPLED WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. DENSE FOG SETTING UP ACROSS
MUCH OF AREA...AND HAS BEEN NOTED AT KSHV AND KMLU TERMINALS...AND
A FEW OTHER AREA AIRPORT SITES. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FOG THUS FAR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR KTXK AND
KELD...WHERE SKIES ARE SKC VFR WITH ONLY SMALL AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
VCNTY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR MOST OF REGION BY 14-16Z.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...ONLY WILL
CARRY TSTM VCNTY FOR KLFK TERMINAL THIS AFTN. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
AFTER 20/06Z AGAIN TONIGHT./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 72 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
MLU 89 69 92 71 94 / 30 10 20 10 10
DEQ 90 67 92 70 93 / 10 10 20 10 20
TXK 89 69 92 72 93 / 10 10 20 10 10
ELD 90 67 92 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
TYR 90 73 93 74 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
GGG 90 71 94 73 94 / 20 10 20 10 10
LFK 91 72 94 73 94 / 40 10 20 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ061-070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
05/07/07
000
FXUS64 KLCH 190443
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
HELP WASH OUT AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE I WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A BETTER CHANCE WOULD
BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN
TERMINALS SO WILL MENTION VCSH FOR ALL BUT THE ACADIANA TERMINALS
AT THAT TIME. CONTINUED VFR.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER THANKS TO THIS
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION BUT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS LINGERING AND
THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ONLY LOWERED
POPS A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUTTING OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO BE AN HOUR OUT OF LCH. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NW WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS PRODUCING MVFR VIS AT
LCH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR VIS IN WEAKENING TSTMS AROUND AEX
BUT POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS AN HOUR OUT MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH IFR VIS. BPT COULD SEE WEAK MVFR TSTMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE BAND HANGS UP JUST TO THE NORTH WITH POSSIBLE NEW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS LOOK
TO BE SUITABLE ALTERNATES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH GREENWOOD MS THROUGH TYLER THIS
EVENING...WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONE
WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...
A LIFTING MECHANISM IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR ASCENDS UPON APPROACHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT (TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE).
FURTHER UP...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A VIGOROUS WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IS IN PLACE TONIGHT.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE UPSLIDING
CARIBBEAN AIR WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM THE TRAVELING
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MID-JUNE BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE (MICROBURSTS). HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 30 10
KBPT 75 90 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 20 10
KAEX 71 88 71 91 72 / 60 50 10 30 10
KLFT 74 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 190433
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1133 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE
WAKE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IMPACTED CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THIS OUTFLOW WILL
PUSH THROUGH KMSY...KNEW...AND KHUM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO
AROUND 12-15 KNOTS WITH THIS PASSING BOUNDARY. BY 08Z...ALL AREAS
SHOULD SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER KMCB SHOULD DISSIPATE. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS FROM 08Z THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
15Z...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS WORDING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z...WITH PEAK CONVECTION
EXPECTED FROM 18-22Z. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z...EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO DIMINISH. A LINGERING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 70 89 69 / 60 40 40 30
BTR 91 73 90 71 / 50 50 50 30
ASD 91 73 90 71 / 40 50 50 30
MSY 91 75 90 74 / 40 50 50 30
GPT 90 75 89 72 / 40 50 50 30
PQL 90 73 90 70 / 40 50 50 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 190300
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT AND AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS STEADILY
DISSIPATING AS IT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AIRMASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER THANKS TO THIS
LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION BUT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS LINGERING AND
THE SHORTWAVE SLOWLY CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ONLY LOWERED
POPS A LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY OVER THE WRN 1/2
OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO INHERITED
GRIDS/FORECASTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUTTING OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO BE AN HOUR OUT OF LCH. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NW WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS PRODUCING MVFR VIS AT
LCH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR VIS IN WEAKENING TSTMS AROUND AEX
BUT POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS AN HOUR OUT MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH IFR VIS. BPT COULD SEE WEAK MVFR TSTMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE BAND HANGS UP JUST TO THE NORTH WITH POSSIBLE NEW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS LOOK
TO BE SUITABLE ALTERNATES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH GREENWOOD MS THROUGH TYLER THIS
EVENING...WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONE
WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...
A LIFTING MECHANISM IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR ASCENDS UPON APPROACHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT (TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE).
FURTHER UP...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A VIGOROUS WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IS IN PLACE TONIGHT.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE UPSLIDING
CARIBBEAN AIR WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM THE TRAVELING
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MID-JUNE BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE (MICROBURSTS). HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 74 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 30 10
KBPT 75 90 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 20 10
KAEX 71 88 71 91 72 / 60 50 10 30 10
KLFT 74 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190231
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
931 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH LOTS OF
INGREDIENTS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SE ZONES ATTM. THIS AREA
HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF NE TX INTO SW AR AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO RESIDE
ALONG THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN
THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS. WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS TO THE SW OF LUFKIN ATTM.
MODELS ARE TOO FAST IN ACCELERATING MCV ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BASED UPON ITS LAST LOCATION WITNESSED ON VIS
SATELLITE THIS EVENING. ITS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AND HISTORY SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL FEATURE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY BASICALLY EXTENDS
FROM NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN
NE TX. THIS COULD VERY WELL SERVE AS A FOCUS OVERNIGHT AS WELL
ALONG WITH THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT LIKELY RESIDE
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
LOOKING ALOFT...THETAE SURFACES AT THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVEL SHOW
WEAK THETAE RIDGES ACROSS NE TX AND N LA BASICALLY JUST SOUTH OF
THE WEST TO EAST SFC BOUNDARY AND THESE COULD PROVE TO BE FOCUS
MECHANISMS AS WELL.
GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT CONTENT AS OBSERVED ON OUR SOUNDING THIS
EVENING...WILL LEAVE POP FORECAST AS IS FOR THE NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE RESIDES.
CONCERNING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...02Z TEMPS ARE RUNNING QUITE A
BIT COOLER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND THIS IS DUE IN PART TO
ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL TODAY. FCST MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT SEEM TO
HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WHILE CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEAR FCST LOWS
ATTM ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS...DO NOT THINK THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE TOO MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT.
WHAT CHANGES WERE MADE WERE FAIRLY COSMETIC WITH SKY...DEWPOINT
AND WIND GRIDS AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.
UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN BAND OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA PRIOR TO THE START OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KOSA
TO KELD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. WHERE
THE PRECIP IS NOT OCCURRING...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREVIOUS DAY MAY EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG AND
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. SLOW...BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE VFR IS
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT AND AS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
SOUTH OF I-20. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE ON A
DIMINISHING TREND BY 20/02Z.
/09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 90 73 93 74 / 30 30 10 20 10
MLU 70 89 70 92 72 / 30 30 10 20 10
DEQ 64 90 68 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 10
TXK 68 90 70 91 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
ELD 67 90 69 92 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
TYR 69 91 74 93 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
GGG 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 30 10 20 10
LFK 71 92 73 94 74 / 30 30 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/09
000
FXUS64 KLIX 190138 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE
TO 830 MB/5.9KFT...PSEUDO TO TROPOPAUSE AT 150 MB/46.6KFT. MOIST
SOUNDING WITH LESS THAN 6 DEGREE SPREAD SURFACE TO 667 MB/11.3KFT.
WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL OR SLOW VEERING SW-W 5-20 KT SURFACE TO
28.3KFT THEN BACKING TO SW 10-20KT TO 43.9KFT...THEN NW 30 KT AT
TROPOPAUSE. PEAK WIND 289/28KT AT 46.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.69
INCHES WITH LIFTED INDEX ONLY -3.7. CAPE 1871 J/KG IS WEAK SUPPORT
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEEP CONVECTION AND CAPE DIMINISHES GREATLY AS
LOWER COLUMN COOLS INTO THE MID 70S.
CHAP OUTPUT USING 344K LIFT FROM 941MB YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF
ONLY 63...WITH A GUST POTENTIAL OF 17 KT...NO HAIL OR TORNADO
THREAT. RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS RESPECTABLE WITH 3-5 INCHES
ACCUMULATED POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING ECHOES. THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND NO UPDATES REQUIRED AT
THIS TIME.
FINALLY...BALLOON TERMINATED AT 9.5 MB /31731 M/104104 FT/19.7
MILES UP OVER THE VILLAGE OF ST. TAMMANY NEAR HORSESHOE ISLAND
ROAD AND HIGHWAY 434 ONLY 5.4 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE LAUNCH PAD.
24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EXTENDING FROM
EAST TN THROUGH NORTHERN AL...MS AND LA AND INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.
LOCAL TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR JUST OVER 70 DEGREES. SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR.
SHORT TERM... BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 36 TO
48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS STILL OFF TO THE NORTH...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO DRY
AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL ONLY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A SHORT PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. LARGER
CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF A BTR TO ASD LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH CLOSES IN ON THE AREA.
MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND UNTIL THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS WEAK BUT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 92 / 40 40 30 20
BTR 73 90 71 92 / 50 50 30 20
ASD 73 90 71 91 / 50 50 30 20
MSY 75 90 74 91 / 50 50 30 20
GPT 75 89 72 89 / 50 50 30 20
PQL 73 90 70 91 / 50 50 30 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 182342
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUTTING OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT LOOKS TO BE AN HOUR OUT OF LCH. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR NW WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH POSSIBLE TSTMS PRODUCING MVFR VIS AT
LCH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR VIS IN WEAKENING TSTMS AROUND AEX
BUT POSSIBLE STRONGER STORMS AN HOUR OUT MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH IFR VIS. BPT COULD SEE WEAK MVFR TSTMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS THE BAND HANGS UP JUST TO THE NORTH WITH POSSIBLE NEW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ACADIANA AIRPORTS LOOK
TO BE SUITABLE ALTERNATES WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH GREENWOOD MS THROUGH TYLER THIS
EVENING...WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONE
WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO ILLINOIS.
DISCUSSION...
A LIFTING MECHANISM IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR ASCENDS UPON APPROACHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT (TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE).
FURTHER UP...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A VIGOROUS WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IS IN PLACE TONIGHT.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE UPSLIDING
CARIBBEAN AIR WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM THE TRAVELING
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MID-JUNE BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE (MICROBURSTS). HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 30 10
KBPT 73 90 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 20 10
KAEX 71 88 71 91 72 / 60 50 10 30 10
KLFT 75 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 182040
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EXTENDING FROM
EAST TN THROUGH NORTHERN AL...MS AND LA AND INTO EAST CENTRAL TX.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT.
LOCAL TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR JUST OVER 70 DEGREES. SCT CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM... BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE IN THE FIRST 36 TO
48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN ISOLATED...BUT STILL EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS STILL OFF TO THE NORTH...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE FRONT PROVIDING A FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES DROPPING AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO DRY
AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RIDGING WILL ONLY REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR A SHORT PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING ALOFT AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. LARGER
CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM THINKING
THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP NORTH OF A BTR TO ASD LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH CLOSES IN ON THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND UNTIL THE BERMUDA RIDGE TAKES OVER.
SUBSEQUENTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY THIS WEAK BUT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
VARIATIONS FROM 5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 92 / 40 40 30 20
BTR 73 90 71 92 / 50 50 30 20
ASD 73 90 71 91 / 50 50 30 20
MSY 75 90 74 91 / 50 50 30 20
GPT 75 89 72 89 / 50 50 30 20
PQL 73 90 70 91 / 50 50 30 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...MEFFER
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
000
FXUS64 KSHV 182029
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
BUSY AFTERNOON...AS AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NW LA...AND HAS NOW
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ESE INTO NCNTRL LA ALONG THE RESIDUAL NCNTRL
LA OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NEARBY
850MB TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS W-E FROM E TX INTO N LA. THIS
COMPLEX IS ALSO FEEDING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AS 20Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES 2000-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NCNTRL LA AS CIGS HAVE BROKEN OUT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE DEEP WARM LYR AND HIGH PW NOTED ON THE
12Z KSHV RAOB...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...EVEN AS DEEP LYR FORCING INCREASES WITH THE MCV NOW
ENTERING ECNTRL TX. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS EVENING FOR NCNTRL LA...WITH THE ANY ISOLATED SVR
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE COMPLEX EXITS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE MCV SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ESE INTO CNTRL LA
AS THE NRN MX/SRN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY LATER THIS EVENING FROM NCNTRL LA INTO E TX...AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING BACK N
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY BUT SEEMS
TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THIS FRONT...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY AMONGST THE NAM/ECMWF IN SLOWLY LIFTING THE FRONT N
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING IT OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
PREFER THE SLIGHTLY WETTER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT CONVECTION IN VC OF THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA ALONG AND S
OF I-20...AND EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A TAD FARTHER N TO THE
RED RIVER INTO EXTREME SRN AR SHOULD THE SFC FRONT DRIFT BACK N.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DIMINISHES SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO EXPAND NE TOWARDS
THE MID MS VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD WASH OUT COMPLETELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL ROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DURING PEAK HEATING TO WARRANT THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NCNTRL LA/PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX BY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE MID 90S BY
THIS TIME AS WELL. SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK...WITH RIDGING ALOFT STRONGEST FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WHICH COULD RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER N LA/DEEP E TX.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
SCATTERED TSTMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A KELD TO KTYR LINE WILL BE THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN MORE NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE
NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREAS...BUT NEAR STORMS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY....MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO FOG. SURFACE WIND WILL BE DETERMINED BY FRONTAL LOCATION...
BUT GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 90 73 93 74 / 30 30 10 20 10
MLU 70 89 70 92 72 / 40 30 10 20 10
DEQ 64 90 68 92 72 / 10 10 10 20 10
TXK 68 90 70 91 73 / 20 20 10 20 10
ELD 67 90 69 92 71 / 20 20 10 10 10
TYR 69 91 74 93 74 / 20 30 10 20 10
GGG 69 90 73 93 73 / 20 30 10 20 10
LFK 71 92 73 94 74 / 40 30 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181943
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH GREENWOOD MS THROUGH TYLER THIS
EVENING...WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SEMI-PERMANENT ANTICYCLONE
WILL TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT ON SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH WEST TEXAS TO ILLINOIS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A LIFTING MECHANISM IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES. THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STEERING CARIBBEAN AIR THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. THE TRAVELING CARIBBEAN AIR ASCENDS UPON APPROACHING THE
STATIONARY FRONT (TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE).
FURTHER UP...THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS A VIGOROUS WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
TRAVELING INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IS IN PLACE TONIGHT.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE UPSLIDING
CARIBBEAN AIR WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM THE TRAVELING
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MID-JUNE BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE (MICROBURSTS). HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 30 10
KBPT 73 90 75 91 75 / 60 50 10 20 10
KAEX 71 88 71 91 72 / 60 50 10 30 10
KLFT 75 89 75 91 75 / 60 50 30 30 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
21
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 181758
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1258 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN PLACE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN RESTRICTED TO SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
LARGER CLUSTER IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ATTM
THINKING THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...DISSIPATE QUITE A BIT AROUND SUNSET. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY REDEVELOP NORTH OF A BTR TO ASD LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH CLOSES IN ON THE
AREA.
MEFFER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE P/CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND SETTLES TOWARD GULF COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE
CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING IN THE 1.75 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2
INCH RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE MID AND THEN EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
BY THE DEPARTED EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. 11
AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A MORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS
WILL RANGE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK...INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AM
MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
TAFS REFLECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PERSISTENT RAIN. RAIN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER 00Z. AM
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 89 69 92 / 30 40 20 20
BTR 73 90 71 92 / 30 50 20 20
ASD 73 90 71 91 / 30 50 30 20
MSY 75 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 20
GPT 75 89 72 89 / 30 50 30 20
PQL 73 90 70 91 / 30 50 20 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181642
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS C LA THRU SE TX/SW LA THIS
MORNING...ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/MVC OVER N TX. WITH
THE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WILL KEEP VCTS AND TEMPO
GROUPS FOR SHRA/TSRA & MVFR VSBY/CEILING THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS
IN ALL TERMINALS. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY VRB WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TX
TRANSLATES EAST. ISOLATED LIGHT STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES/PARISHES...WHILE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX/N LA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. KEPT THE GENERAL THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
VICINITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND TEMPO/PROB AT KAEX...BUT
DID INSERT THUNDER RATHER THAN JUST SHOWERS....AND EXTENDED IT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N AND
W OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FM CNTL MS WEST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DALLAS-FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING SOUTH
ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CNTL TX. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT EXTENDS FM NR MEMPHIS SW TO WACO AND
AUGMENTED BY ENERGY PROVIDED BY A VORT MAX TRAVELING THROUGH
WESTERLIES ALOFT. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NRN EDGE OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ORIENTED FM THE ERN PAC EAST ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER SE...MOISTURE FM TD2 IS SPREADING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SRN GULF. THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACRS NRN GUATEMALA...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
STALLING ACRS CNTL LA INTO E TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES CLIMBING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS CNTL LA. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHC AGAIN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POPS TAPER BACK TO A DIURNAL SLT CHC AS
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EAST ACRS TX INTO WRN LA WITH
AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. GLOBAL
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS OR INVERTED
TROF RETROGRADING WEST ACRS THE GULF BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 90 75 92 76 / 20 30 10 20 10
KBPT 76 91 76 92 76 / 20 30 10 20 10
KAEX 72 91 73 94 74 / 30 40 10 20 10
KLFT 75 90 75 93 75 / 30 30 20 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 181633
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NCNTRL LA...IN
VC OF A WEAK SFC FRONT WHICH WAS EVIDENT A BIT EARLIER IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS JUST ENTERING UNION AND CLAIBORNE PARISHES
AND EXTENDING W ALONG THE AR/LA LINE TO NEAR JXI...TO JUST S OF
JDD...AND FARTHER W INTO NCNTRL TX. THE VIS LOOP ALSO INDICATES AN
ELEVATED BNDRY AHEAD OF THE CNTRL TX CONVECTION EARLIER WHICH HAS
SHIFTED E INTO NE...CNTRL AND SW LA INTO SE TX. WEAK PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS AR HAS ALLOWED THE FRONT TO SAG A LITTLE FARTHER S
INTO EXTREME NRN LA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MSAS SFC THETA-E PLOTS
INDICATING RAINCOOLED AIR ALONG AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION BISECTING NCNTRL LA FROM NEAR SHV...SE TO IER AND ESF.
WRLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM HAS YIELDED ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SFC AND ATTENDANT 850MB TROUGH...AND NCNTRL LA OUTFLOW BNDRY
FOR A PERSISTENT REGENERATION OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING WITH AID
OF WEAK PVA ALOFT...BUT BELIEVE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THIS PVA GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
FARTHER W...THE 16Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM
THE EARLY MORNING CNTRL TX CONVECTION WHICH HAS SLOWED AS IT
ENTERED SE TX...AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM A CLL...TO JUST E OF A
CRS LINE. VIS IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS ALSO REVEAL AN MCV
SPINNING JUST SW OF DFW...WHICH REMAINS PROGGED TO SHIFT ESE INTO
E TX THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS
REMAINS RELATIVELY UNTOUCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX LATE
THIS MORNING...WITH SBCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALREADY AS OF 16Z.
THUS...SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP EXPAND ENE ACROSS E TX WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
OVER DEEP E TX GIVEN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND INCREASE IN
0-6KM SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES 20-30KTS NEAR THE MCV. THE AIR MASS
THAT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FARTHER N AND E MAY STRUGGLE WITH MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IN A LESS WEAKLY SHEARED AIR MASS...BUT
GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED NATURE OF THE AIR MASS /THE KSHV 12Z RAOB
REVEALED A PW OF 2.17 INCHES...AND A WARM LAYER OF 3.7KM DEEP/...IT
SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO YIELD ADDITIONAL CONVECTION GIVEN THE
MYRIAD OF SFC BNDRYS IN PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS AS THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH AN ISOLATED FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORMS TRAIN. COCORAHS REPORTS FROM NEAR MINDEN LA HAVE
REPORTED 5.5-6.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HRS...WITH 4.5-5+
INCHES OF THIS FALLING EARLY THIS MORNING. AND HOURLY RAIN RATES
AS CONVECTION MOVED OVER KSHV WAS NEAR 2.50 IN/HR.
HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY ALONG/S OF I-20
ACROSS E TX/N LA TODAY...S OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MCV. HAVE TAPERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER N ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW AR...AND HAVE DROPPED POPS TODAY
FOR SE OK AND THE FAR NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING...THUS HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AREAWIDE.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 18/18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE FLIGHT HAZARDS FROM
SCATTERED TSTMS WHICH WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR A KELD TO KJDD LINE WILL
BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MORE NUMEROUS STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTH. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE AREAS...BUT NEAR STORMS EXPECT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER AFTER 08Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z WEDNESDAY....MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND
SOME MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG. SURFACE WIND WILL BE DETERMINED BY
FRONTAL LOCATION...BUT GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 87 72 92 73 94 / 50 20 20 10 10
MLU 87 70 92 71 94 / 60 20 20 10 10
DEQ 87 66 91 69 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
TXK 86 69 91 71 92 / 20 20 10 10 10
ELD 86 67 92 69 93 / 40 20 10 10 10
TYR 86 72 91 74 93 / 50 20 20 10 10
GGG 87 71 92 73 94 / 50 20 20 10 10
LFK 89 73 93 73 94 / 50 30 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181525
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TX
TRANSLATES EAST. ISOLATED LIGHT STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES/PARISHES...WHILE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX/N LA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. KEPT THE GENERAL THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
VICINITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND TEMPO/PROB AT KAEX...BUT
DID INSERT THUNDER RATHER THAN JUST SHOWERS....AND EXTENDED IT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N AND
W OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FM CNTL MS WEST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DALLAS-FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING SOUTH
ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CNTL TX. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT EXTENDS FM NR MEMPHIS SW TO WACO AND
AUGMENTED BY ENERGY PROVIDED BY A VORT MAX TRAVELING THROUGH
WESTERLIES ALOFT. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NRN EDGE OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ORIENTED FM THE ERN PAC EAST ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER SE...MOISTURE FM TD2 IS SPREADING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SRN GULF. THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACRS NRN GUATEMALA...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
STALLING ACRS CNTL LA INTO E TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES CLIMBING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS CNTL LA. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHC AGAIN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POPS TAPER BACK TO A DIURNAL SLT CHC AS
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EAST ACRS TX INTO WRN LA WITH
AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. GLOBAL
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS OR INVERTED
TROF RETROGRADING WEST ACRS THE GULF BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 77 90 75 92 / 30 20 30 10 20
KBPT 92 76 91 76 92 / 30 20 30 10 20
KAEX 89 72 91 73 94 / 60 30 40 10 20
KLFT 91 75 90 75 93 / 30 30 30 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181108
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
608 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS
MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL TO SAG
SOUTHWARD...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TX
TRANSLATES EAST. ISOLATED LIGHT STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES/PARISHES...WHILE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX/N LA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. KEPT THE GENERAL THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
VICINITY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND TEMPO/PROB AT KAEX...BUT
DID INSERT THUNDER RATHER THAN JUST SHOWERS....AND EXTENDED IT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N AND
W OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FM CNTL MS WEST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DALLAS-FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING SOUTH
ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CNTL TX. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT EXTENDS FM NR MEMPHIS SW TO WACO AND
AUGMENTED BY ENERGY PROVIDED BY A VORT MAX TRAVELING THROUGH
WESTERLIES ALOFT. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NRN EDGE OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ORIENTED FM THE ERN PAC EAST ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER SE...MOISTURE FM TD2 IS SPREADING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SRN GULF. THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACRS NRN GUATEMALA...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
STALLING ACRS CNTL LA INTO E TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES CLIMBING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS CNTL LA. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHC AGAIN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POPS TAPER BACK TO A DIURNAL SLT CHC AS
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EAST ACRS TX INTO WRN LA WITH
AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. GLOBAL
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS OR INVERTED
TROF RETROGRADING WEST ACRS THE GULF BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 91 77 90 75 / 40 20 30 10
KBPT 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 10
KAEX 89 72 91 73 / 50 30 40 10
KLFT 91 75 90 75 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13
000
FXUS64 KLCH 181000
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N AND
W OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FM CNTL MS WEST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DALLAS-FORT WORTH WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY EXTENDING SOUTH
ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY OF CNTL TX. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT EXTENDS FM NR MEMPHIS SW TO WACO AND
AUGMENTED BY ENERGY PROVIDED BY A VORT MAX TRAVELING THROUGH
WESTERLIES ALOFT. LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NRN EDGE OF A HIGH PRES RIDGE
ORIENTED FM THE ERN PAC EAST ACRS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. FURTHER SE...MOISTURE FM TD2 IS SPREADING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SRN GULF. THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
RECENTLY MOVED INLAND ACRS NRN GUATEMALA...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE SFC FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY
STALLING ACRS CNTL LA INTO E TX BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PW VALUES CLIMBING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SFC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES EXPECTED ACRS CNTL LA. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL
WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT AT LEAST A SLT CHC OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING TO CHC AGAIN DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA. MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCT SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN AFTN HIGHS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POPS TAPER BACK TO A DIURNAL SLT CHC AS
RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD BACK EAST ACRS TX INTO WRN LA WITH
AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. GLOBAL
MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS OR INVERTED
TROF RETROGRADING WEST ACRS THE GULF BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN MOSTLY
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 75 91 74 / 40 30 30 10
KBPT 92 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 10
KAEX 89 72 91 73 / 50 30 40 10
KLFT 91 75 90 75 / 40 30 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 180846
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
346 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 CONTINUING TO DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.
FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFTING
EAST TOWARD DEEP EAST TEXAS. AS UPPER-TROUGH INTERSECTS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LATER THIS MORNING...COULD SEE
INCREASED COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TOLEDO
BEND RESERVOIR AND POINTS EAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. NOT
EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HOWEVER SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AREAWIDE TODAY. NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRONT TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TO FACTORS TO ALLOW FOR DECREASED CONVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASED
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY
FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO MIGRATE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALLOWING FOR INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
BAND OF STG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WITH STORMS MOVG INTO KMLU...AND CONTINUE IN VCNTY OF
KSHV. MORE ISOLD CONVECTION NEAR THE KTYR AND KGGG TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF KTXK AND KELD
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK AT THESE SITES...
WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED...HOWEVER...HEAVY CIRRUS FROM CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS WILL LIMIT STRONG RADIATION COOLING FOR REMAINDER OF
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ALONG STNRY FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH EARLIER
TONIGHT TO CURRENT POSITION. EXPECT AFTN RE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
TO BE ENHANCED BY SFC HEATING....AND AFFECT KLFK AS WELL THIS
AFTN./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 72 92 73 94 / 30 20 20 10 10
MLU 88 70 92 71 94 / 50 20 20 10 10
DEQ 88 66 91 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 10
TXK 89 69 91 71 92 / 20 20 10 10 10
ELD 88 67 92 69 93 / 40 20 10 10 10
TYR 90 72 91 74 93 / 30 20 20 10 10
GGG 90 71 92 73 94 / 30 20 20 10 10
LFK 91 73 93 73 94 / 40 30 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/07/
000
FXUS64 KLIX 180829
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID WEEK. ONE
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE P/CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND SETTLES TOWARD GULF COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE
CONVECTION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING IN THE 1.75 TO SLIGHTLY OVER 2
INCH RANGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
REBUILD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE MID AND THEN EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. A WEAKNESS ALOFT LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
BY THE DEPARTED EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN DURING THAT PERIOD. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE GULF WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A MORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SEAS
WILL RANGE AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MID WEEK...INCREASE TO
AROUND 3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. AM
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY. AS
A RESULT...EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
TAFS REFLECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PERSISTENT RAIN. RAIN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLOWLY AFTER 00Z. AM
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 90 70 89 69 / 60 30 40 20
BTR 91 73 90 70 / 50 30 50 20
ASD 91 72 90 70 / 40 30 50 30
MSY 91 76 90 74 / 40 30 50 30
GPT 90 74 90 73 / 40 30 50 30
PQL 90 72 90 70 / 40 30 50 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180457
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1157 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE INSERTION OF HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. 00Z MODELS INDICATE BETTER
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING ASSOCIATED ADVANCING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
AND BACKDOOR SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO APPEAR OVER THE ERN SITES...PRIMARILY KAEX
WHERE TEMPO SHRA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS PICKING UP AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT MIXING DOWN.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS.
NOW HOWEVER BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
THROUGH SE ARKANSAS AND NE TEXAS. EXPECTING TO SEE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUING...COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. THUS HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE REMOVING ANY MENTION OF EVENING PRCIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ABUNDANT. WILL BE EVALUATING
POPS FOR POST-MIDNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSTREAM MCS
TYPE DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ADVANCE TO THE AREA.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
NOW THAT ALL THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED PER REGIONAL
88DS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAFS EVEN
THOUGH ENOUGH WEAK BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER FOR
MAYBE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.
DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 77 91 75 / 10 30 20 40 10
KBPT 75 92 76 91 75 / 10 20 20 30 10
KAEX 73 90 71 91 72 / 30 50 20 40 20
KLFT 76 91 75 91 76 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180421
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1121 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS.
NOW HOWEVER BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
THROUGH SE ARKANSAS AND NE TEXAS. EXPECTING TO SEE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CONTINUING...COMBINED WITH DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. THUS HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE REMOVING ANY MENTION OF EVENING PRCIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ABUNDANT. WILL BE EVALUATING
POPS FOR POST-MIDNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSTREAM MCS
TYPE DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ADVANCE TO THE AREA.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
NOW THAT ALL THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED PER REGIONAL
88DS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAFS EVEN
THOUGH ENOUGH WEAK BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER FOR
MAYBE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.
DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 77 91 75 / 10 30 20 40 10
KBPT 75 92 76 91 75 / 10 20 20 30 10
KAEX 73 90 71 91 72 / 30 50 20 40 20
KLFT 76 91 75 91 76 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 180321
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE ZONE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING THAT DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR A NEARLY STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS NEAR A LIT TO TXK AND TYR LINE. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES SHIFT SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY. MADE
MINOR CHANCES TO THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...EXPECT SCT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE.
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SW AR...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
KSHV/KMLU...AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SWD ACROSS AR. BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS EXIST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. IF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER W TX PERSISTS...IT SHOULD BEGIN
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF E TX BY 18/12Z...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
WEAKENING. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY NOON AREAWIDE ALONG BOTH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE TIMING OF DAYTIME
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...SO TIMING IN THESE TAFS IS UNCERTAIN.
SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 19/00Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
SFC FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
STALLING. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE FRONT PASSES. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 90 72 91 73 / 30 30 20 40 20
MLU 72 88 70 91 71 / 40 40 20 30 20
DEQ 69 87 68 89 70 / 30 20 20 30 10
TXK 71 88 70 90 71 / 30 20 20 30 20
ELD 71 88 69 90 71 / 40 40 20 30 20
TYR 73 90 73 89 74 / 30 30 20 40 10
GGG 73 90 73 89 73 / 30 30 20 40 10
LFK 75 92 74 92 73 / 30 40 30 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/09
000
FXUS64 KLIX 180128
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
828 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
WILL BE LOWERING POPS TO 10 PERCENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS
HAVE DROPPED A BIT...DOWN TO 1.72 INCHES AND ABOUT 0.25 INCH LOWER
THAN THIS TIME 24 HOURS AGO. ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SURFACE TO
827 MB/5800 FT...PSEUDO LAYER TO BASE OF A VERY SUBTLE INVERSION
AT 691 MB/11.0KFT...THEN PSEUDO THROUGH A LOW AND SUBTLE TROP
INVERSION AT 343 MB/28.6KFT...THEN A TROPICAL TROPOPAUSE AT
119MB/51.1KFT. MOISTURE PROFILE IS 5-8 DEGREES DEPARTURE SURFACE
TO BASE OF INVERSION THEN HIGHLY VARIABLE LAYERING OF DRY AND
MOIST THROUGH 300 MB. WINDS WERE UNIDIRECTIONAL SW SURFACE 5KT TO
20KT AT 14.2KFT...THEN W 20-30 KT TO 30KFT...THEN NW 15-30KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 289/32KT AT 22.6KFT. FLIGHT TERMINATED ABOUT 6.2
MILES SOUTHWEST OF OFFICE NEAR HIGHWAY 434 IN LACOMBE AT AN
ALTITUDE OF 32609 M...106985 FT...20.3 MILES UP.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY BETWEEN 18/17Z AND 18/21Z AND HANDLED WITH TEMPO GROUPS.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF
ALONG WITH OUR INFAMOUS SUMMER HEAT WILL PROVIDE THE OPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE ALL COME TO KNOW SO WELL HERE IN THE GULF
SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPPED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
WEAKEN AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS TUE. AS THE NEW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN...THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD OUT OVER THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY WED. THE FRONT
WILL USE THIS MOISTURE AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR TS ACTIVITY AND
THEIR OUTFLOWS STARTING NEW TS THROUGH FRI.
LONG TERM...
A TRANSFORMATION TO A DEEPER MORE TROPICAL AIR FLOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING TEMPS TO COOL JUST A BIT.
A FEW TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL NEXT WEEK...OR AT
LEAST WE WILL NOTICE THEM SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF
SOMEWHAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY HIGHER THAN IT HAS RECENTLY
BEEN...EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND TROPICAL
WAVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO ALL TERMINALS BASED ON THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THOUGH NOT ALL WILL BE IMPACTED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL CAUSE ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT TYPICAL WEAKENING DISSIPATION AS THE SUN SETS. -BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE.
MEFFER
MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS FROM
5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS.
MEFFER
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 50
BTR 74 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 50
ASD 72 91 72 91 / 20 30 20 50
MSY 76 91 76 91 / 20 30 20 40
GPT 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 20 50
PQL 72 90 72 90 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180028
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
728 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...SENT OUT AN UPDATE REMOVING ANY MENTION OF EVENING PRCIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED SOME
LOW END POPS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MORE ABUNDANT. WILL BE EVALUATING
POPS FOR POST-MIDNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSTREAM MCS
TYPE DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ADVANCE TO THE AREA.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
NOW THAT ALL THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED PER REGIONAL
88DS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAFS EVEN
THOUGH ENOUGH WEAK BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER FOR
MAYBE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
.EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.
DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 77 91 75 / 10 30 20 40 10
KBPT 75 92 76 91 75 / 10 20 20 30 10
KAEX 73 90 71 91 72 / 20 50 20 40 20
KLFT 76 91 75 91 76 / 10 30 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 180001
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
701 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOW THAT ALL THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED PER REGIONAL
88DS...HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE TAFS EVEN
THOUGH ENOUGH WEAK BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGER FOR
MAYBE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
..EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.
DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 77 91 75 / 20 30 20 40 10
KBPT 75 92 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 30 10
KAEX 73 90 71 91 72 / 20 50 20 40 20
KLFT 76 91 75 91 76 / 20 30 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 172043
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE
ERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS TO
THE W AFFECTED WITH RAINFALL AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL STILL
TRYING TO RECOVER ITS UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOW DURING PEAK HEATING.
AS EXPECTED...TSRA ALONG THE LINE HAVE BEEN TAME IN THIS WEAKLY
SHEARED FLOW...AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE MCV DRIFTING SLOWLY E
ACROSS EXTREME NE OK/SW MO/NW AR. HOWEVER...AREAS JUST S OF THE
RED RIVER OF N TX HAVE RECOVERED ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON SUCH THAT
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SFC
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS TROUGH MAY HELP FOCUS MORE SCT
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK...AND TONIGHT OVER
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR AS THIS MCV DROPS SE ACROSS AR. STILL NOT
QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE ABLE
TO RECOVER BEFORE WE LOSE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE SFC TROUGH. HAVE TONED DOWN POPS
TONIGHT BACK TO CHANCE...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS GENERALLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING W-E 850MB TROUGH FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL
AR. CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD SLIDE SE INTO
PORTIONS OF N LA AS THE MCV OPENS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SE INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY ONCE THE RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD N FROM
NRN MX INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS INDICATE THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT WILL DRIFT S
TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING STATIONARY. HOWEVER...THE PROGS HAVE ALSO TRENDED MUCH
FARTHER W WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE/MCV FROM CONVECTION
THAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER W TX...WHICH WILL
MIGRATE SE INTO CNTRL TX TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO SE TX/SRN LA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED MCS LATE TONIGHT AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS
MORNING...REMNANTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BNDRY AND 850MB TROUGH AND RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY WHILE SPREADING ESE. HAVE GONE WITH MID CHANCE POPS
FOR THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF
THE FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT FARTHER N TUESDAY
ACROSS SE OK/NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY...BUT ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT CAN/T BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE SFC FRONT...EVEN AS IT SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN N
ACROSS E TX EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE SFC BNDRY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT THE MODELS ARE
ALL A BIT DIFFERENT IN THE EXTENT OF VORTICITY ADVECTION OR
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE AS THE ROCKIES UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND NE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC FRONT LIFTS N AND WASHES OUT
OVERNIGHT...AND RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDS NE INTO THE AREA.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY NE INTO THE MS VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO
WEAKNESSES ALOFT ON THE SSE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THUS...SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THESE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED EVEN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE MID
90S AS WELL...WITH UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE THIS
WEEKEND/WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER E TX.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.
HOWEVER SCATTERED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALL AREAS...WITH AREA
COVERAGE HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...EXPECT SOME
MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. /14/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 90 72 91 73 / 40 30 20 40 20
MLU 73 88 71 91 71 / 50 40 20 30 20
DEQ 68 87 68 89 70 / 40 20 20 30 10
TXK 71 88 70 90 71 / 50 20 20 30 20
ELD 71 87 68 90 71 / 50 40 20 30 20
TYR 74 90 73 89 74 / 40 30 20 40 10
GGG 74 90 73 89 73 / 40 30 20 40 10
LFK 75 92 74 92 73 / 30 40 30 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/14
000
FXUS64 KLIX 172026
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF
ALONG WITH OUR INFAMOUS SUMMER HEAT WILL PROVIDE THE OPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE ALL COME TO KNOW SO WELL HERE IN THE GULF
SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPPED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
WEAKEN AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS TUE. AS THE NEW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN...THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND SPREAD OUT OVER THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY WED. THE FRONT
WILL USE THIS MOISTURE AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR TS ACTIVITY AND
THEIR OUTFLOWS STARTING NEW TS THROUGH FRI.
.LONG TERM...
A TRANSFORMATION TO A DEEPER MORE TROPICAL AIR FLOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING TEMPS TO COOL JUST A BIT.
A FEW TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AS WELL NEXT WEEK...OR AT
LEAST WE WILL NOTICE THEM SINCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BACK OFF
SOMEWHAT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY HIGHER THAN IT HAS RECENTLY
BEEN...EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE AND TROPICAL
WAVE ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO ALL TERMINALS BASED ON THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY THOUGH NOT ALL WILL BE IMPACTED.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL CAUSE ABRUPT WIND
SHIFTS THOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
EXPECT TYPICAL WEAKENING DISSIPATION AS THE SUN SETS. -BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SUBSEQUENTLY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS FROM
5-10 KNOTS TO 10-15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 2 FEET OR
LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS.
MEFFER
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 90 71 91 / 20 40 20 50
BTR 74 92 74 92 / 20 40 20 50
ASD 72 91 72 91 / 20 30 20 50
MSY 76 91 76 91 / 20 30 20 40
GPT 75 90 75 90 / 20 30 20 50
PQL 72 90 72 90 / 20 30 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 171952
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ERODING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AS NEWLY FORMED (AND LARGE) TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HEADS
TOWARD GUATEMALA..
FURTHER UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS DESERT OLD
MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH MARKS THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME
...EXTENDING THROUGH THE COASTAL TEXAS PLAINS TO SHREVEPORT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY WAVEGUIDE IS IN PLACE, STRETCHING ALONG A NEW MEXICO TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TRACK. SHORTWAVES--EMANATING OUT OF THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE--WILL ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ADEQUATE. THE LIFT ATTENDING THE TRAVELING
SHORTWAVES WILL GIVE AN ADDED BOOST TO THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE PLUMES.
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
NEAR 2 INCHES (ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MID-JUNE
BENCHMARK NORMALS).
INSTABILITY WILL BE ADEQUATE AS WELL. THE K-INDEX WILL BE RUNNING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30`S (CELSIUS DEGREES). THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY BE RUNNING AROUND 3000 J PER KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL BE RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 76 91 77 91 75 / 20 30 20 40 10
KBPT 75 92 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 30 10
KAEX 73 90 71 91 72 / 20 50 20 40 20
KLFT 76 91 75 91 76 / 20 30 20 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
JT
$$
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