[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 241512
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1012 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STILL A MUGGY MORNING FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS NOTED TO OUR NORTH AND EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS BACKDOORING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWED UP WELL ON KSHV 88D THIS MORNING
AND APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF A GVT...ESF LINE BUT IS
SLOWING ITS SOUTHWEST PROGRESS SOMEWHAT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
NOTED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
BUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STARTING
TO POP ALONG AND WEST OF A TRL...PSN LINE WHERE MUCH BETTER PWATS
EXIST ALONG WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW CIN. FOR THE
UPDATE...HAVE CUT POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT KEPT THEM IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LEFT MAX TEMPS UNCHANGED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT DID BUMP UP WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND LOWERED POST FRONTAL DEWPOINTS TO MATCH
UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS EVEN THROUGH WE
ARE SEEING A LOT OF CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM THE MCS ONGOING ACROSS
DEEP S TX.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS IS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE E TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTTY LOW END VFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
N LA AS WELL. THESE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING AND
SCATTER OUT BY 16Z-17Z WITH HIGH THIN CIRRUS INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER SW INTO E TX WITH SFC WINDS FROM THE E/NE
BETWEEN 6-12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 15-18 KTS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME
ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER E TX AND MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST VCTS WORDING EARLY IN THIS TAF
PERIOD AND WILL HANDLE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH AMENDMENTS.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING EXCEPT OVER E TX WHERE THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
A FACTOR. IN ADDITION...EXPECT LOW CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO
RETURN ACROSS THE E TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS WELL THROUGH 25/15Z.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 65 87 68 86 / 10 10 20 20 20
MLU 84 58 86 63 87 / 10 0 10 10 20
DEQ 80 58 83 64 86 / 10 0 20 20 20
TXK 81 60 84 66 86 / 10 0 20 20 20
ELD 81 56 85 62 85 / 10 0 10 10 20
TYR 86 67 87 68 87 / 20 20 20 20 20
GGG 86 67 87 68 86 / 20 20 20 20 20
LFK 89 68 89 68 88 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/19
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 241450 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
950 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDING IS MODERATELY MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH PW OF 1.55
INCHES...SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2914 J/KG AND MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
1705 J/KG. MOISTURE PROFILE IN SOUNDING IS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED
IN LOW LEVELS UP TO 850 MB AND IN MID LEVELS FROM 600-500 MB.
MODIFIED SOUNDING AT KBTR AROUND 20Z YIELDS A HIGHER MIXED LAYER
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. WIND PROFILE IS LIGHT NORTHERLY /10 KNOTS OR
LESS/ UP TO 12KFT...THEN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT STRONGER SPEEDS
ABOVE 12KFT WITH A PEAK WIND AROUND 60 KT AT 44 KFT. WET MICROBURST
POTENTIAL IS MODERATE TODAY...SO IF MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLULAR
CONVECTION CAN FORM THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REQUIRING SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHT
IS AROUND 11 KFT...SO SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
HAVE ELEVATED HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DOMINATING
DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH
LITTLE FANFARE ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE DURING THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER... SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION AS THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSES. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH THE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT
IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...BUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN
THE WEEK. 11
AVIATION...
LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM
TEXAS CONVECTION...HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES AT MOST SITES...EXPECT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS NEAR THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR KMCB...WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND NOT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 35
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED OVER THE SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE RATHER QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED BY MID WEEK. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 56 85 56 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 89 64 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 88 60 85 59 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 88 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 88 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 241154
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS AT KLCH AND IFR VISBYS AND OCCASIONAL CIGS AT KBPT THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AT ERN SITES ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
LARGER TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCE IS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT THERE.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY MIDDAY WITH MOSTLY
LT VRBL WINDS EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT DRIFTING NE TO SW ACRS THE
AREA WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A TS AND INCLUDED VCSH MENTION AT ALL
SITES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
EVENING. LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES OVERNIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN TEXAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK...WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTS SO FAR REPORTING PATCHY FOG. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST WITH
DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REACH THE DEW POINT READING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4SM...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THEN BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ACTIVITY AGAIN WAITS
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...PROVIDING A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WITH THIS...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING BACK DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RUA
MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ON
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY EASTERLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CAMERON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST. THIS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 88 68 88 67 / 20 10 10 10
KBPT 88 71 87 70 / 20 10 20 10
KAEX 87 64 88 66 / 20 10 10 10
KLFT 90 69 88 67 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 241037
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
537 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO MOVE INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EARLIER. THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED BUT LATER DURING THE
DAY WITH HEATING...A LOW LEVEL SUPPLY OF MOISTURE...AND
DISTURBANCES RIDING AROUND A MID LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS. THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT OVER TEXAS INTO
THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A WEAK LOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL
SPREAD EAST BACK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY EACH DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE
GULF NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS
ALONG EACH COAST. WILL MAINTAIN VERY SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK
UNDER THE RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND FOUR STATE REGION. HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN GFS MOS THROUGH THE WEEK. TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND UPPER CLOSED
LOW FORMS AND DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...
AND HAVE RETURNED SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY BR WITH A FEW VFR CIGS AT AN INVERSION AT 4KFT. VFR RETURNS
BY 15Z...BUT HEATING ALONG WITH A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT EDGING
INTO THE ARKLATEX...MAY CROP UP SOME SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS. KMLU AND
KELD HAVE COME AROUND TO NE WITH SOME GUSTS NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG THE
MS RIVER. WE WILL AMEND REMAINING SITES IF NEEDED FOR WX. ALOFT...SW
15-25 KTS VEERS TO NW BY 12KFT WITH INCREASING SPEED. WE WILL HAVE
DECENT INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS BECMG ENE AT 5-15 KTS FROM NE TO SW.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 85 65 87 68 86 / 30 20 20 20 20
MLU 84 58 86 63 87 / 20 10 10 10 20
DEQ 80 58 83 64 86 / 20 10 20 20 20
TXK 81 60 84 66 86 / 30 10 20 20 20
ELD 81 56 85 62 85 / 20 10 10 10 20
TYR 86 67 87 68 87 / 30 30 20 20 20
GGG 86 67 87 68 86 / 30 30 20 20 20
LFK 89 68 89 68 88 / 30 30 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240857
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY IN TEXAS IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT KEEPING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK...WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTS SO FAR REPORTING PATCHY FOG. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST WITH
DRIER AIR NOTED BEHIND IT.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN AND
AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REACH THE DEW POINT READING. A FEW SPOTS
MAY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 1/4SM...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THEN BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT. STILL DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF ACTIVITY AGAIN WAITS
TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THAT A STORM MAY BECOME RATHER STRONG WITH HAIL AND
DOWN BURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...PROVIDING A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HUMID
CONDITIONS MAY HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
WITH THIS...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR
SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY...WITH WARM DAYS AND SEASONABLE NIGHTS.
A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK. A DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRINGING BACK DECENT GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM EACH AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND WASHING OUT ON
SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY EASTERLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CAMERON DUE TO THIS FEATURE.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE EAST. THIS BERMUDA RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 70 87 68 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
KBPT 88 71 87 70 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 87 64 88 66 89 / 20 10 10 10 10
KLFT 89 69 88 67 87 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 240841
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
DOMINATING DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH LITTLE FANFARE ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE THE MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL PREVAIL IN ITS WAKE DURING THE MEMORIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 80S WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH THE WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK...BUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
LACK OF ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT...COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM
TEXAS CONVECTION...HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG AT
LOCAL TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN 3 TO 4
DEGREES AT MOST SITES...EXPECT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS TO REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS NEAR THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR KMCB...WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED AND NOT
WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 35
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE OPEN
WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND MAY ALSO BE
NEEDED OVER THE SOUNDS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE RATHER QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES MAY AGAIN BE NEEDED BY MID WEEK. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 56 85 56 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 89 64 87 61 / 20 10 0 0
ASD 88 60 85 59 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 88 68 85 65 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 88 61 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 88 57 85 58 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240505
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHAT EFFECT THE APPROACHING CIRRUS
WILL HAVE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE CLOUD DECK ENCROACHING PORTIONS
OF THE AREA NOW LOOKS RATHER THIN AND SHOULD NOT RETARD FOG
DEVELOPMENT TOO MUCH...HOWEVER UPSTREAM CIRRUS IS MUCH THICKER PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THIS
CIRRUS IS MORE SWD WHICH SHOULD KEEP IT WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUS CONTINUED EARLIER TREND OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AFTER 09Z...WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF MUCH LOWER VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE. THEREAFTER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP POST-SUNRISE. MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT DURING THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LACKING
THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING POPS THROUGH 06Z AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. AFTER
THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 240254
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO DEWPOINTS AND RH THIS EVENING.
REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOK GOOD. CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
STILL UNCERTAIN FOR LATER TONIGHT. MODELS MIXED ON THIS OCCURRING
WITH NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...SIMILAR TO CURRENT POPS. A WEAK AND
DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA...
SO RELUCTANT TO ALTER THE CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
NO UPDATE TO FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS AREA...AND WEAK COLD FRONT
NEAR I-30...PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOCI FOR ISOLD CONVECTION TONGHT.
HOWEVER...MOSTLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMISH BY 03-04Z THIS
EVE. SKIES MOSTLY VFR SKC OVERNIGHT...YET PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE WITH GROUND STILL MOIST FROM STORMS TUE EVE...AND A FEW
LOW VFR CIGS MAY SET UP UNDER INVERSION. DECENT INSTABILITY BUT
MARGINAL MOISTURE AFTER 24/18Z SUGGEST VERY ISOLD
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS NE TX...POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS BECMG
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS AFTER 24/15Z./VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 85 63 87 66 / 40 40 20 20 20
MLU 66 82 57 85 63 / 30 30 10 10 10
DEQ 64 80 56 83 63 / 30 20 20 20 20
TXK 66 80 60 84 64 / 40 30 20 20 20
ELD 64 79 55 84 63 / 30 30 10 10 10
TYR 71 87 67 86 68 / 40 40 20 20 20
GGG 70 86 66 87 67 / 40 40 20 20 20
LFK 70 90 66 89 67 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/07
000
FXUS64 KLCH 240117
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
817 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING POPS THROUGH 06Z AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. AFTER
THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 30 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 240115
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
815 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING. RATHER TYPICAL DRY ADIABATIC
SOUNDING FOR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME CURRENTLY IN PLACE. SOMEWHAT
DRY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST LAYERS AS THE WETTEST
LEVEL IS A 4 DEGREE SPREAD AT 916 MB / 2800 FT BUT DEPARTS QUICKLY
ABOVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.26 INCHES BUT SURFACE BASED POSITIVE
AREA IS 3561 J/KG WITH LOW HELICITY OF ONLY 21 M2/S2. STORM MOTION
353/8 KT LOOKS WELL ALIGNED WITH RADAR TRENDS. WINDS WERE SW 5 KTS
SURFACE TO ABOUT 1800 FT...VEERING NW-N 5-15 KT TO 15KFT...THEN
BACKING TO NW 20-70 KT THROUGH TROPOPAUSE AND LOWER STRATOSPHERE.
PEAK WIND 285/70 KT AT 41.3KFT. BALLOON OVER-ACHIEVED BY REACHING
A RARE 6.4 MB...34.112 KM / 111916 FT / 21.2 MI AND BURST 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAUNCH OVER UPPER LAKE BORGNE ABOUT 1 MILE WEST OF
THE UPPER TIP OF BILOXI MARSH...BUT NOT BEFORE REACHING WAVELAND
MS PRIOR TO WESTWARD DRIFT ON EASTERLY WINDS IN UPPER
STRATOSPHERE. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR WEDGE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTH SHORE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.
7/ARM
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PRODUCE A STEADY
NORTHEAST BREEZE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HIGHER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS
END DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 86 56 85 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 69 89 64 87 / 20 20 10 0
ASD 68 88 60 84 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 71 88 68 85 / 20 20 10 0
GPT 69 89 61 83 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 67 88 57 84 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 232336
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 232018
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
318 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WE REACH PEAK HEATING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR WEDGE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTH SHORE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN.
A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. SOME OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN THEN...COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.
7/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
&&
.MARINE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL PRODUCE A STEADY
NORTHEAST BREEZE...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUNDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST IN TIME FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HIGHER SWELLS ARE EXPECTED BY WEEKS
END DUE TO THE LONG FETCH.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 86 56 85 / 20 10 0 0
BTR 69 89 64 87 / 20 20 10 0
ASD 68 88 60 84 / 20 10 0 0
MSY 71 88 68 85 / 20 20 10 0
GPT 69 89 61 83 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 67 88 57 84 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 232017
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.
STACKHOUSE
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 89 69 87 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
KBPT 73 89 70 86 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
KAEX 70 87 62 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 90 68 88 66 / 10 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 231942
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
242 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SCENARIO PLAYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. REMNANT ELEVATED CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO REGENERATE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
PNC...MLC LINE. A PIECE OF THIS ENERGY DROPPED SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...
THERE IS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG
AND NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT WE HAVE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LI`S
NEAR -10 AND SBCAPE VALUES AOA 4000J/KG. STEERING FLOW IS VERY
WEAK BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUT VERY LITTLE CIN REMAINS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED POPS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING GOING A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES WHERE THESE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO ACT UPON
THE INSTABILITY. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM S AR INTO NE TX AND THIS BOUNDARY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY ATTM.
DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...VERY DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION. CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER INTO OKLAHOMA
MATCHED UP WELL WITH A 700MB THETAE RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SAME SETUP WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
TONIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. MOST OF THE HIGH
RES SOLUTIONS ARE HINTING AT LATE NIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE 700MB THETAE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD EXTEND NEAR
THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/NE TX...INTO N LA. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE BEEFED UP POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH ANY CONVECTION LIKELY LOOSING ITS
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8-8.5 DEG WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT ANY ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION COULD CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. SPC
IS HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
THEIR EASTWARD EXPANSION OF A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE WORDED THE UPDATED HWO AS SUCH.
WEAK COLD FRONT BACKDOORS ITSELF INTO OUR SW ZONES ON FRIDAY
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SW ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY EVEN TRY TO BACKUP TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ENCOMPASS MORE OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FLATTENS OUT NEXT WEEK BUT THE FLOW
REMAINS DIRTY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DESCENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST ABOUT
ANY DAY NEXT WEEK BUT THE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LIMITED AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM SRN OK HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. OTHER ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE TRIED TO DEVELOP
AS A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES SW ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED FROM BOTH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NORTH OF I-20.
OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS WEAK WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE AFFECTED THIS EVENING.
ALSO...SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN OK COULD BRUSH SW AR THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL END TO ANY CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF ELEVATED THETAE RIDGING
WHICH PARALLELS THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF MVFR CIGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING THROUGH 23/18Z. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 85 63 87 66 / 40 40 20 20 20
MLU 66 82 57 85 63 / 30 30 10 10 10
DEQ 64 80 56 83 63 / 30 20 20 20 20
TXK 66 80 60 84 64 / 40 30 20 20 20
ELD 64 79 55 84 63 / 30 30 10 10 10
TYR 71 87 67 86 68 / 40 40 20 20 20
GGG 70 86 66 87 67 / 40 40 20 20 20
LFK 70 90 66 89 67 / 20 30 20 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/09
000
FXUS64 KLIX 231816
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST AIRPORTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR LATER INCLUSION IN TAFS...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS KMCB AREA LATE
TONIGHT...AND AREAS ALONG I-12/10 AROUND MIDDAY TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG AND LOW CIGS IN
STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY AT SOME AIRPORTS. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED OFF...SO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD START TO FALL IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. 12Z LIX SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HOWEVER THE RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS /STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ TODAY IS LOW. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 10 20 10 0
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 10 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 10 20 10 0
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 10 20 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 10 20 10 0
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231707
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1207 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...REACHING A SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LINE BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
SINKING AIR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL TRAPPED MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE..BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 231617
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. STILL IT IS IN
CLOSE ENOUGH VICINITY THAT WE NEEDED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY FOR OUR EXTREME NW ZONES TODAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK CAPPING NOTED
ACROSS AREAS TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST RAP13 INFO HAS COME IN AND IT
IS PAINTING ISOLATED RANDOM CONVECTION ACROSS JUST ABOUT OUR
ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND FOR THIS
REASON...DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS ATTM. UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ANY REMAINING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. TSTMS THAT
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS OK ABOUT NEARING THE RED RIVER. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM THE RED RIVER BETWEEN OK/TX EWD ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ASCENT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO SUSTAIN
THESE STORMS. EVEN IF THESE TSTMS DISSIPATE...REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
INCLUSION OF TSTM REMARKS WILL LIKELY BE LAST SECOND DECISION IN THE
TAFS...BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY TO KTYR. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 69 85 64 87 / 20 20 20 10 10
MLU 91 66 82 58 85 / 20 20 10 0 10
DEQ 87 64 80 59 83 / 20 20 20 10 20
TXK 88 66 80 61 84 / 20 20 20 10 10
ELD 89 64 79 57 84 / 20 20 10 0 10
TYR 90 71 87 68 86 / 20 20 20 10 20
GGG 91 70 86 67 87 / 20 20 20 10 10
LFK 91 70 90 67 89 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/09
000
FXUS64 KLIX 231600 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS BURNED OFF...SO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD START TO FALL IN LINE WITH EARLIER
FORECASTS. 12Z LIX SOUNDING IS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HOWEVER THE RISK OF
WET MICROBURSTS /STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS/ TODAY IS LOW. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 10 20 10 10
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 10 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 10 20 10 10
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 10 10 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 10 20 10 10
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231427
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
927 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING AND
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231142
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
642 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBYS IN AREAS OF FOG AT ALL SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING EXCEPT KLCH WHERE LIFR VISBYS OF 1/4-1/2 SM HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW HOURS. CIGS/FOG WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT. WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOPING AT SRN SITES BY MIDNIGHT. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 70 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 / 20 10 20 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 / 20 10 20 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 231001
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK/INVERTED SFC TROUGH
JUST S OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS N TX INTO EXTREME NE TX...EXTENDING
FROM THE PARENT SFC LOW OVER NE NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION...A
WEAK STATIONARY BNDRY THAT BARELY SHOWS UP IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS BUT
MORESO IN THE THETA-E ANALYSIS PERSISTS FROM SCNTRL AR NE ALONG THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE LATTER BNDRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WASH OUT
OVER OUR AREA TODAY...WITH THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR NW COMING INTO PLAY
TODAY AS IT MAY DRIFT A BIT FARTHER N AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
DRIFTS S INTO THE LOWER TX PANHANDLE. SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING DEPICTS ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING OVER CNTRL/SE OK N OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHERE ELEVATED RETURN
MOISTURE HAS INTERACTED WITH WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT CONTINUES
TO SPILL SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z PROGS FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
HAVE DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH THIS THAN THIS MORNING/S RUNS...BUT
AM EXPECTING THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AS IT ENTERS EXTREME
SE OK/NE TX THIS MORNING AS THE 850MB FLOW BACKS MORE WRLY BY LATE
MORNING THUS WEAKENING ANY RESIDUAL ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. BUT
HAVING THIS SFC BNDRY FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER TO ALONG THE AR/LA LINE
DURING PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ALONG/N OF THIS BNDRY NEAR THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO NEAR 90 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE COULD SEE SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING NEAR THIS SFC TROUGH...AND SFC RIDGING THAT WILL
EXPAND SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS SFC RIDGING WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO BACKDOOR SW THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT...REACHING PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX INTO THE SRN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA LATE. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING AN MCS THIS EVENING OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NW TX...WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION SPILLING SE INTO THE
REGION ATOP THE BACKDOOR FRONT AFTER 06Z. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS
TO THE NW SECTIONS OF NE TX AFTER 06Z TO ACCOMMODATE ANY ROGUE
CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC TROUGH WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER NEAR THE SRLY 20-25KT LLJ. THIS WEAK
FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER ALL BUT OUR
EXTREME ERN ZONES FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR DEEPENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WRN PLAINS UPPER RIDGING THIS MORNING SHOULD DRIFT E INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE DIMINISHING THE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT STALLS
FROM CNTRL OK INTO ECNTRL TX SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROGS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS FROM CONVECTION
OVER NW TX LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHIFTS THIS FEATURE E INTO CNTRL
OK/WCNTRL TX SATURDAY MORNING...AND INTO ERN OK/N TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FROM THE WRN SECTIONS
OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE THE SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO WASH OUT WHERE A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS FOR MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO RETURN BACK NWD. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT FARTHER E
INTO SW AR SUNDAY AS THIS SHEAR AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR E OF THE RESIDUAL SFC FRONT.
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD PERSISTS AND EVEN AMPLIFY FROM THE
GULF COAST N INTO THE MIDWEST /PER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BLEND/.
INCREASINGLY SRLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS WELL.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
MORE CLOUDS NOW...BUT FEW CIGS. WE ARE SEEING REDUCTIONS IN VSBY DUE
TO DAMP SOIL AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME BRIEF ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH IFR/MVFR FOR VSBY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR BY
13-15Z. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT TURNS AROUND
AND LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN NEARBY THUNDER
THIS MORNING IN OK WITH MORE COMING AND SCAT TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT/S PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH. EXPECT ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY WITH
SW FLOW AROUND 25 KTS FROM NEAR SFC TO 10KFT...THEN LIGHT NW FLOW.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 69 85 64 87 / 10 20 20 5 10
MLU 91 66 82 58 85 / 10 20 10 0 5
DEQ 87 64 80 59 83 / 20 20 20 5 20
TXK 88 66 80 61 84 / 20 20 20 5 10
ELD 89 64 79 57 84 / 20 20 10 0 5
TYR 90 71 87 68 86 / 10 20 20 10 20
GGG 91 70 86 67 87 / 10 20 20 10 10
LFK 91 70 90 67 89 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230855
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY HAS
BECOME MAINLY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH...LEAVING
BEHIND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS
THE FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY BOUNCING
AROUND BETWEEN 1/2SM AND 3SM...AND THEREFORE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME...AND NOT ANTICIPATED EITHER AS ANY
DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH DECENT MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RIDGE DOWN TOWARD THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL STALL AND WASH-OUT ON SATURDAY FROM ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST BACK INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND
RATHER WARM MEMORIAL DAY.
RUA
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN WASH OUT
ON SATURDAY. BRIEF EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MIDWEST BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME
BY SUNDAY...AND INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH AGAIN
RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 71 89 69 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KBPT 88 71 88 70 86 / 20 10 20 10 10
KAEX 91 69 88 63 87 / 20 10 20 10 10
KLFT 89 71 89 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230850
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND BE REINFORCED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A DELIGHTFUL LATE MAY WEEKEND
FEATURING COOLER NIGHTS AND VERY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST TODAY ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN A FEW AREAS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE BEST AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY RESIDE. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE IN THE OFFING TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS AND DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN BY MID WEEK COULD YIELD VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. 11
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY...ALL FORECAST TERMINALS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHUM
WHICH IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUD CURVES ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO A LIGHT WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
24-36 HOURS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS WILL BRING OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. WILL PROBABLY NEED HEADLINES IN THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
TO NECESSITATE HEADLINES AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN WATERS. 35
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 89 65 87 58 / 20 20 10 10
BTR 90 69 89 63 / 20 20 20 10
ASD 89 68 89 61 / 20 20 10 10
MSY 88 72 89 67 / 20 10 20 10
GPT 87 69 89 60 / 20 20 10 10
PQL 89 66 88 58 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230439
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1139 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH
LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM RAINS ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...RETURNING TO
VFR.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. ADJUSTED HOURLY DEWPOINTS UP
A BIT TO BETTER AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND ALSO NUDGED FCST
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS...AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. PATCHY FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 72 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 68 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 69 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230315
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY ON TARGET. ADJUSTED HOURLY DEWPOINTS UP
A BIT TO BETTER AGREE WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND ALSO NUDGED FCST
LOWS UP A DEGREE OR SO. LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHTS...AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. PATCHY FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 20
KBPT 72 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
KAEX 68 91 69 88 / 10 20 10 20
KLFT 69 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 230254
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
954 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING SO NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S COLD FRONT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MOIST
SOILS...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PATCHY BR WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY...LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KLFK BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF
PD BY AROUND 23/16Z. /12/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 91 69 85 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
MLU 66 90 67 82 59 / 10 10 20 20 10
DEQ 57 85 63 79 59 / 10 20 20 20 10
TXK 61 86 65 80 61 / 10 20 20 20 10
ELD 60 88 63 80 57 / 10 20 20 20 10
TYR 66 90 70 88 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
GGG 65 90 69 86 66 / 10 10 20 20 10
LFK 69 91 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/12
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230123
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
823 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH FLIGHT THIS EVENING. DESPITE AIR MASS BEING
WORKED OVER BY QLCS THIS MORNING...MOISTURE RECOVERED WITH 5
DEGREE OR LESS SPREAD FROM SURFACE TO 630 MB...RESIDUAL
ALTOCUMULUS DECK AT 11 KFT WITH SATURATED LAYER INDICATED UNDER
ELEVATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 630 MB TO 560 MB...THEN A DRY
COLUMN ALOFT. WINDS CALM AT SURFACE QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWEST 15-20KT
TO 10KFT...VEERING TO NORTHWEST INTO LOWER STRATOSPHERE 20-60KT.
PEAK WIND 265/56KT AT 43.3KFT. BALLOON TERMINATED AT 33239M/109051
FT OR 20.6 MILES OVER WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY NEAR BAYOU LACROIX.
THE FLIGHT DID REACH AS FAR EAST AS HOLLYWOOD CASINO AREA 26 MILES
DOWNRANGE BEFORE EASTERLY WINDS IN UPPER STRATOSPHERE BROUGHT THE
BALLOON WITHIN 12 MILES OF LAUNCH SITE. 24/RR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TERREBONNE AND
POSSIBLY LAFOURCHE PARISHES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A TROF WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEDGE OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE QUITE POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE AFTERNOON
SUMMER LIKE STORM BY MID WEEK.
7/ARM
AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 90 65 / 70 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 91 69 / 80 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 68 / 100 10 20 20
MSY 85 70 88 71 / 100 10 20 10
GPT 83 68 87 69 / 100 10 20 20
PQL 85 67 87 66 / 90 10 20 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 222352
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR DEPICTING JUST
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ACADIANA. THESE WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE THROUGH
THE COOLING EVENING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME FOG
AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS A
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTH LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED FROM
RAINS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MVFR/IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE
THURSDAY...RETURNING TO VFR.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 71 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 66 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 222024
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING TROUGH DRIFTED INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DURING THIS MORNING, HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND DRIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE IS ALSO TRAVERSING THE REGION WITH THE
BEST DIVERGENCE PUSHING EAST INTO SE LA AND MS. WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DEPARTING, THE MID TO UPPER LVLS DRYING, AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND INTO THURSDAY THAT A FEW ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE
REGION PUSHING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL AREA. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES, HOWEVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PORTIONS OF THE COMING WEEK SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 71 89 71 89 69 / 10 20 10 20 10
KBPT 71 88 71 88 70 / 10 20 10 20 10
KAEX 66 91 69 88 63 / 10 20 10 20 10
KLFT 70 89 71 89 67 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 222017
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
COVERAGE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN. THROUGH THE REMAINING
AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT TERREBONNE AND
POSSIBLY LAFOURCHE PARISHES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.
A TROF WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEDGE OR OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHSHORE.
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH
ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE
WEEK AND TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE QUITE POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL. MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE AFTERNOON
SUMMER LIKE STORM BY MID WEEK.
7/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OFFSHORE FLOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 90 65 87 / 10 20 20 10
BTR 68 91 69 89 / 10 20 10 20
ASD 68 89 68 88 / 20 20 20 10
MSY 70 88 71 88 / 10 20 10 20
GPT 68 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 10
PQL 67 87 66 89 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 222004
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
304 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 60S TONIGHT...NEAR 70 IN LUFKIN.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BY DAYBREAK...HOWEVER WITH INTRUSION OF
LOW CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK...FOG FORMATION MAY BE LIMITED. FOR THIS
REASON...HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG IN THE FORECAST.
ON THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS TO ALLOW FOR HOT CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY MORNING FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WET SOILS FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE
ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN BY 23/16Z. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 66 91 69 85 64 / 10 10 20 20 10
MLU 66 90 67 82 59 / 10 10 20 20 10
DEQ 57 85 63 79 59 / 10 20 20 20 10
TXK 61 86 65 80 61 / 10 20 20 20 10
ELD 60 88 63 80 57 / 10 20 20 20 10
TYR 66 90 70 88 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
GGG 65 90 69 86 66 / 10 10 20 20 10
LFK 69 91 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/09/
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221747
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW LINGERING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER S-CNTL
LA...THUS INCLUDED THUNDER AT KLFT/KARA THROUGH 20Z TO ACCOUNT.
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY PUSH EWD AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THE REGION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TAKES
HOLD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG/LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AT
THE SRN SITES...OTHERWISE VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 942 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS MORNING WITH SCT STORMS. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND RETURN NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, AND WITH
THE BOUNDARY AROUND MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...
DID A QUICK CLEAN UP TO THE POP AND WX GRIDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS MORNING IS NOW CONFINED TO MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL WATERS...AS PREFRONTAL TROF AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE THE SOUTH. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HELD ON
TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...AS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG
AROUND THE AREA...AND MAY HELP FOCUS DAYTIME HEATING ACTIVITY.
RUA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.
RUA
MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 71 87 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
KBPT 87 72 87 71 88 / 50 10 20 10 20
KAEX 87 68 90 70 88 / 30 10 20 10 20
KLFT 87 71 89 71 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221716
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1216 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT SE LA AND S MS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...LOW CIGS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS AT NEARLY ALL TAF SITES FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. PW MEASURED AT 1.66
INCHES WITH MOISTURE MEASURED FROM THE SFC THROUGH 35K FT. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC THROUGH 10K FEET THEN SW TO W UPWARD.
NOT A SEVERE SOUNDING BUT THERE IS SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE
RADAR. FREEZING LEVEL MEASURED AT 12753 KFT. OVERALL SOUNDING IS
WARMER THEN 24 HOURS AGO.
SHORT TERM...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH AMOUNT AND TIMING OF THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION. UPDATED POPS AND QPF AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES EAST. RAINFALL RATES BEING REPRESENTED VERY
WELL ON THE WSR88D DUAL POL WITH OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES ARE HIGH WITH AN INCH REPORTED AT KBTR
IN 7 MINUTES.
DECISION SUPPORT...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS WAS A HI-RES WRF RUN FROM YESTERDAY...AS
MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAST ENOUGH. THIS CONVECTION IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE WAKE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER
AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ACCELERATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TYPICAL IN THIS VERY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PERSIST STRONGLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES. THE BIG QUESTION AND FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS WHETHER THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO BUILD BACK NORTH AGAINST THE MOMENTUM OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND IF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. IT APPEARS IT IS MORE LIKELY A BOUNDARY
WILL STALL RATHER THAN MOVE BACK NORTH AT THIS POINT.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS HAVE ALREADY STARTED IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF BATON ROUGE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THESE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
MOST LIKELY DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS...THEN THE
HEAVIER RAIN AREAS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOW TODAY...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOP MINI-BOW STRUCTURES COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON THURSDAY...A
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD REGION AS
A MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. IN
BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THERE
WILL BE A WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH OR
TEMPORARILY STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MUCH LESS MOISTURE CONTENT TO
WORK WITH WHICH MEANS A LACK OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH. SINCE THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CAUSE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE BOUNDARY MAY BE HUNG UP JUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AND LESS HUMID. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO MORE
COMFORTABLE AND BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS OVER BOTH
THE WEST AND EAST COASTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST WHILE A
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON
THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS MEANS THERE SHOULD BE NO THREAT OF
RAIN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LOWER HUMIDITY...AND HAVE LOWERED THE FORECAST LOWS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS TRENDS FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE NEXT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ABOUT NEXT
WEDNESDAY AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 22/TD
MARINE...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF...A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN WATERS...OF A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. 35
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
MONITORING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 86 65 91 63 / 70 10 20 20
BTR 86 68 92 68 / 80 10 20 10
ASD 85 68 89 66 / 100 10 20 10
MSY 85 71 89 70 / 100 10 20 10
GPT 83 69 87 67 / 100 20 20 10
PQL 85 67 89 65 / 90 20 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...95/DM
SOUNDING...KEG
PREV DISCUSSION...22/35
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