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000
FXUS64 KSHV 300044 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF PART OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AR AND NE LA SHOULD
CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT THE SAME
FOR THE REMAINING CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THERE
ARE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF TSTMS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THE CHANCES JUST DO NOT WARRANT
A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 102  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 102  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 300044 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATED FOR THE EXPIRATION OF PART OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AR AND NE LA SHOULD
CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT THE SAME
FOR THE REMAINING CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THERE
ARE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF TSTMS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THE CHANCES JUST DO NOT WARRANT
A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 102  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 102  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$

09


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 292357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...VCTS ENDING SOON AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. VFR WITH AGAIN
VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 292357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...VCTS ENDING SOON AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. VFR WITH AGAIN
VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 292357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...VCTS ENDING SOON AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. VFR WITH AGAIN
VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 292357
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
657 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...VCTS ENDING SOON AT LCH, LFT, AND ARA. VFR WITH AGAIN
VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KSHV 292223
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
523 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC AR AND NE LA SHOULD
CONTINUE DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT THE SAME
FOR THE REMAINING CU FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WELL.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THERE
ARE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHEAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
OF TSTMS WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE AS THE CHANCES JUST DO NOT WARRANT
A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 102  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 102  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 101  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/13


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  77  94  78  90 /  40  50  40  50
MSY  79  91  81  90 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  78  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 292043
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
343 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
AND ARE TRACKING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVEMENT
AND GENERALLY SMALLER STORMS NOT GOING TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD
CONCERN. HOWEVER... STORMS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW TYPICALLY HAVE
BETTER CHANCE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWN BURSTS. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR THAT THREAT. SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF A
SLIDELL TO NEW ORLEANS LINE ALTHOUGH MAJORITY WILL BE OFFSHORE.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING WEST AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE 4-
CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS DIPPING OUT OF CANADA AND WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY AND HAVE THUS
INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES FROM MAKING IT TO HEAT ADVISORY VALUES. ENHANCEMENT OF
RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY BUT MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 12. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE TROUGH TO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WHICH WILL
LOWER CWA RAIN CHANCES.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A BROAD SURFACE LOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS INTO
IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE
ALSO INCREASED WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN DUE TO NOCTURNAL
JET BRINGING SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN AGAIN IS CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHRA AND
TSRA ARE DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION
SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT TOMORROW CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
GREATER COVERAGE AS A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO SLIP INTO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN  = NO WEATHER
IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE   = LONG FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH          VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
        ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY                  TROPICAL EVENTS;
HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE
RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10
BTR  76  95  76  94 /  20  40  30  40
ASD  77  94  78  90 /  40  50  40  50
MSY  79  91  81  90 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  78  89  79  87 /  50  50  50  50
PQL  77  91  77  87 /  60  60  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 292020
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
320 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D SHOWS A FEW
SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES ...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S ALONG AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW 100S SPRINKLED ACROSS C LA.
BUT WITH DEWPTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES 102-106. FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE SE MAY
KEEP ISO SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE
LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR
MOST AREAS N OF I-10. DEWPTS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER IN THE LOWER/MID 70S DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. THUS...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH
108-110 FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE AREAS IN THE 109-110 RANGE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MOST OF LOWER SE TX AND MOST OF C AND S LA.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE INITIATION OF SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE
EAST. TIMING ON THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST AFTER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER SC LA INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO MON...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. BY
TUE & WED...THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS BACK EASTWARD OVER TX/LA...WITH
THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS RESUMING.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING
ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  78  99  75  97 /  10  20  20  20
LCH  78  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  20
LFT  78  98  77  96 /  20  40  30  30
BPT  78  98  78  97 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291932
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUSIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 101  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291932
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUSIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 101  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291932
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUSIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 101  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291932
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. DEW POINT VALUES HAVE MIXED OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO KEEP AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MONROE HAS TOUCHED A 110
DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS SHOWING UP AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CU FIELD. MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER TO UPGRADE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA FOR THURSDAY. SITUATION
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR AS TODAY FOR THURSDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUSIANA
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
BEING THAT TODAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE STILL ON THE UPPER END OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ARE AFFECTING SUCH A SMALL AREA...WILL
HOLD WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AGAIN TOMORROW. LATER SHIFTS
CAN RE-EVALUATE TO DETERMINE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS
NECESSARY.

UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT WEST ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION
TO DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES TO RETURN DURING
THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76 101  76  98 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  77 101  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  73  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  76 100  75  96 /  20  30  10  10
ELD  75  98  72  94 /  20  30  10  10
TYR  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  76 100  76  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  74 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ072-073.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070-071.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER 29/20Z AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE
MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAEX TO COVER THIS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER 29/20Z AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE
MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAEX TO COVER THIS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER 29/20Z AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE
MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAEX TO COVER THIS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291747
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1247 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 29/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER 29/20Z AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MOVE INLAND AND WILL MAKE
MENTION OF VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KAEX TO COVER THIS.
ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXCEPT MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...I DID
MENTION SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT ELD AND LFK. WE COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY OVER/NEAR
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  76  98 /  10  20  20  10
MLU  78 100  75  97 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  74  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  77 100  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  76  98  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  76 100  76  99 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...I DID
MENTION SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT ELD AND LFK. WE COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY OVER/NEAR
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  76  98 /  10  20  20  10
MLU  78 100  75  97 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  74  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  77 100  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  76  98  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  76 100  76  99 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...I DID
MENTION SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT ELD AND LFK. WE COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY OVER/NEAR
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  76  98 /  10  20  20  10
MLU  78 100  75  97 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  74  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  77 100  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  76  98  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  76 100  76  99 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291746
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...I DID
MENTION SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT ELD AND LFK. WE COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM TODAY...MAINLY OVER/NEAR
NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /35/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  76  98 /  10  20  20  10
MLU  78 100  75  97 /  20  30  10  10
DEQ  74  98  74  95 /  10  30  20  10
TXK  77 100  75  96 /  10  20  10  10
ELD  76  98  72  95 /  10  20  10  10
TYR  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  20
GGG  77 101  77  99 /  10  20  20  10
LFK  76 100  76  99 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING HOT
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOOKING FOR HIGHT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING HOT
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOOKING FOR HIGHT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING HOT
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOOKING FOR HIGHT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1013 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINING HOT
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. LOOKING FOR HIGHT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO
APPROACH 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 105
TO 110 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 291252
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM AND MOIST
AIR THIS MORNING. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE IS AT 19.3C WITH THE
925MB TEMPERATURE AT 24.7C. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN
IS 1.97 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MEAN STORM MOTION FROM
72 AT ONLY 2 KNOTS AND HIGH PW VALUES...SHOULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. NOW...MUCH DRIER AIR EXISTS ABOVE 12000 FEET
AND THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE 1340 J/KG DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THAT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT IS
REALLY LIMITED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL QUITE HIGH NEAR 17500
FEET. WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 2800 FEET...THEN
ATTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AROUND 4200 FEET THROUGH THE
TROPOPAUSE. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 31 KNOTS WAS LOCATED AT 46200
FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON ATTAINED A HEIGHT OF 21.2 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND DURING ITS 103 MINUTE ASCENT BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 43
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291153
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291153
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
653 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR
KLFK AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AT KSHV AND KMLU. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WEST
CENTRAL LA/DEEP EAST TX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

20



000
FXUS64 KLCH 291127
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291127
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291127
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 291127
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY THIN FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SITES
REPORTING AROUND 5SM VIS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. BRIEF LOWER VIS AND CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND BECOME S TO SW IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 291025
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

PALMER/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291025
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

PALMER/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291025
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

PALMER/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 291025
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...PREDOMINATELY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING
TO FALL BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT THIS TIME...GIVEN DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT ANOTHER VERY HOT
DAY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING
TO 105 DEGREES AND ABOVE. IN FACT...850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY...BEFORE
CLIMBING ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT OUR
MINI HEATWAVE OF 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL AREAS. BELIEVE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
UPGRADING A FEW AREAS TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...AS SOME AREAS
MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THESE
DAYS...BUT IT REALLY LOOKS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT BEST.

A BRIEF BREAK...IF YOU CAN CALL IT THAT...FROM THIS HEAT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER NEW MEXICO. THAT BEING SAID...IT WILL STILL BE HOT THOSE
DAYS...BUT JUST NOT AS HOT...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND
20 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND BACK ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY AND THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  79 101  76 /  10  10  20  20
MLU 100  78 100  75 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  99  74  98  74 /  10  10  30  20
TXK 100  77 100  75 /  10  10  20  10
ELD  99  76  98  72 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  99  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
GGG 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  20  20
LFK  99  76 100  76 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

PALMER/13



000
FXUS64 KLCH 291007
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 291007
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED
TO SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID SOUTH...WITH TROFFING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WRN GULF...AND A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING
ENE THROUGH SRN MANITOBA.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES WWD ACROSS THE FL STRAITS...THEN
NW INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING THIS MORNING FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROF/UPPER LOW TRAVERSING SRN CANADA WILL IN EFFECT
YIELD A NET WWD SHIFT IN FEATURES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE MID SOUTH MIGRATING WWD TWD
WEST TX...AND THE TROF AXIS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SHIFTING WEST
INTO THE SE CONUS/NE GULF. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER HUDSON BAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS WILL BE SIMILARLY SLOW TO CHANGE...WITH WEAK RIDGING
PROGGED TO BUILD BACK IN TWD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
WEAK COOL FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU...HANGING UP NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MSTR FROM THE EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT...AND
SUBTLE IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WWD SHIFTING RIDGE...INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHEST INLAND PROBABILITIES APPEAR THU-THU
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE GULF WATERS FRI INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEGINS TO INTRUDE FROM THE
NORTH.

A COUPLE OF DEGREES MAY GET KNOCKED OFF HIGH TEMPS BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PCPN PARTICULARLY OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT
THE REAL DIFFERENCE WOULD BE FELT VIA THE DRIER AIR IN
OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. STILL SOME DISPARITY IN THE
MODELS/GUIDANCE ON THIS NOTE.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A MORE
PREVALENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT...COUPLED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  75 /  20  20  40  30
LCH  96  78  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
LFT  97  79  97  78 /  20  20  40  40
BPT  97  77  98  77 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290809
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
309 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SH/TS SHOULD FIRE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND
MOVE WSW. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE TS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS MAY BE AT A HIGH
FREQUENCY. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE THE CASE...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH...MOVE INDOORS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PLAY OUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS A WEAK SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS MAY BE THE CATALYST FOR AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SEVERE TS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THURSDAY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER FINE TUNE THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
THE FINALLY DEPARTING STACKED HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO SLOWLLY FILL BEHIND IT CAUSING THE
PATTERN OF SH/TS THAT WE WILL SEE TODAY TO OCCUR ON A DAILY BASIS
INTO NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT KGPT...KMSY...
KNEW...KASD AND KHUM. 11

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS VARYING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 FEET OR LESS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  75  94  75 /  30  30  50  30
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  30  40  50
ASD  96  77  95  78 /  40  30  40  50
MSY  94  79  92  81 /  40  30  40  50
GPT  95  78  90  79 /  40  40  50  50
PQL  95  77  92  77 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290444
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME LIGHT AND MOSTLY FROM A SSE DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK A LITTLE MORE ACROSS NE TX JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO A SSW AND SW DIRECTION
AFTER SUNRISE. BEYOND THE MID MORNING HOURS...WENT WITH VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM SE LA INTO WC LA/EC TX.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AROUND 30/00Z.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13



000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 290424
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1124 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 5KFT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 290415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILIES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS STARTING AT MAX HEATING TIME. OTHERWISE,
MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AND MVFR CIG EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT BPT
WITH MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AT LFT AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 290415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILIES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS STARTING AT MAX HEATING TIME. OTHERWISE,
MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AND MVFR CIG EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT BPT
WITH MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AT LFT AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 290415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILIES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS STARTING AT MAX HEATING TIME. OTHERWISE,
MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AND MVFR CIG EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT BPT
WITH MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AT LFT AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 290415
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE AND INSTABILIES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH FROM THE EAST. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS STARTING AT MAX HEATING TIME. OTHERWISE,
MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AND MVFR CIG EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AT BPT
WITH MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY AT LFT AS WELL.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290247 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 290247 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 290247 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 290247 AAB
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION HAS DISSPATED SO HAVE REDUCED POPS BACK BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS. OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING. MINOR UPDATES WERE
MADE TO SOME OF THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST IS STILL INTACT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 290245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 290245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 290245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 290245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END WITH SUNSET/LOSS
OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE NERN GULF MOVING WWD WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE AS
IS SO MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE...THUS NO UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290024 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 290024 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 290024 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 290024 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
724 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED A QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM
THE EXPIRED AREAS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KLCH 282346
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 282346
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 282346
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 282346
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
646 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG LATE TNITE AT BPT AND MVFR CIG
BRIEFLY AFTER DAYBREAK AT LFT AND BPT. VCTS BY MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE AGAIN.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 282315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059-070-
     071.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-
     018.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 282315
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S
WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 8KTS. SFC RIDGE EAST OF OUR REGION THIS
EVENING IS FCST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS DURING
THE DAY. ALSO EXPECTING CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059-070-
     071.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-
     018.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05/13




000
FXUS64 KLCH 282036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



000
FXUS64 KLCH 282036
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. LCH WSR88D
SHOWS ISO SHRA...OCCASIONAL TSRA...ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS
SE TX/S LA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE
STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 90S ALONG
AND N OF I-10...WITH A FEW UPPER 90S SPRINKLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS MATERIALIZED THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INLAND...KEEPIN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-104.

FOR THIS EVENING...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET ONCE
AGAIN. FOR WED...SIMILIAR CONDITONS EXPECTED LIKE TODAY...MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH ISO AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN A BIT OVER OUR REGION AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COOL FRONT (EMPHASIS ON WEAK & COOL) TO MOVE FROM THE NORTH. AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO BUMP UP TEMPS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 90S/POSSIBLY 100 FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY TO REACH 105-110 AGAIN.
ONCE THIS IS REACHED...THE BOUNDARY COUPLING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG THE N GULF...WILL LIKELY IGNITE SCT/NUM SHRA/TSRA BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF S LA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRI MORNING.

FOR FRI...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND
SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT
MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BY THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD AS THE LONG WAVE TROF BROADENS OVER THE C AND E U.S. OUR
TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF...WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST...KEEPING ELEVATED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  99  78  98 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  78  96  78  97 /  10  20  20  40
LFT  77  96  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
BPT  77  96  77  97 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08




000
FXUS64 KLIX 282026
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WILL BEGIN
RETROGRADING WEST BENINNING WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS
REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL GRADUALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE
WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND
STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO NEXT WEEK.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION... OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. ONLY ISSUE WOULD
BE IF CONVECTION IMPACTS ANY OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN
MAGNITUDE. SEAS WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD
SURFACE LOW DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL
DRAW WINDS INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.  THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET
OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER &&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  75  94 /  10  20  40  50
BTR  75  96  76  96 /  10  20  30  40
ASD  76  96  77  95 /  10  20  40  40
MSY  77  94  79  92 /  10  20  30  40
GPT  77  95  78  90 /  10  20  40  50
PQL  76  95  77  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059-070-
     071.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-
     018.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS AREAWIDE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CLOSING
IN ON 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

HEAT ADVISORY RE-ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

COULD SEE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH UPPER-RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HIGH TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78 100  78 100 /  10  10  10  30
MLU  77 100  77  99 /  20  20  20  30
DEQ  74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
TXK  77 100  77  99 /  10  10  10  30
ELD  76 100  76  97 /  10  10  20  30
TYR  76  99  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
GGG  76 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  30
LFK  75  98  76 100 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059-070-
     071.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ060-061-072-073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-
     018.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ004>006-013-014-
     019>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISO TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL BUT AEX
THROUGH 00Z...CONFIDENT THAT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP. ALTHOUGH ADDED VSCH FOR LCH AND BPT BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
AFTER 00Z...CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281732 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER N LA/SW AR/SE
OK/EXTREME ERN TX BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ATTM. ONCE THE CU FIELD
DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT S OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281732 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER N LA/SW AR/SE
OK/EXTREME ERN TX BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ATTM. ONCE THE CU FIELD
DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT S OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281732 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER N LA/SW AR/SE
OK/EXTREME ERN TX BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ATTM. ONCE THE CU FIELD
DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT S OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

15



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281732 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT
CU FIELD WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER N LA/SW AR/SE
OK/EXTREME ERN TX BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS ATTM. ONCE THE CU FIELD
DIMINISHES EARLY THIS EVENING...SKC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 4-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT S OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

15




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281553
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281553
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SFC ACROSS THE N
GULF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
LCH WSR88D SHOWS ISO SHRA ALONG THE COASTAL PARISHES AND NEAR
COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THESE WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY. TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS REACHING 90.

RAN THE UPDATED ALLBLEND GUIDANCE...AND STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S NORTH OF I-10...MID 90S ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR...TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST...NO CHANCE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR N OF I-10 WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 105-107 RANGE. FURTHER S...SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPTS BUT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WILL YIELD ABOUT THE
SAME RANGE...THUS NOT REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIOR AT THIS
TIME. MAY SEE BRIEF POCKETS ACROSS THE REGION THAT MAY SHOOT UP
BRIEFLY TO 108-110 FOR AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY RIGHT AFTER ANY
RAINFALL ONCE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT...WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED
LITERALLY ANY GIVEN DAY DURING THE SUMMER ALONG THE GULF COAST.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  95  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/12Z...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 28/14Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT KELD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KLFK. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...
5-10 KNOTS...AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
947 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER-RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO APPROACH AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO AVERAGE
BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES...PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK...NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/12Z...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 28/14Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT KELD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KLFK. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...
5-10 KNOTS...AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

05/05



000
FXUS64 KLIX 281253
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVERHEAD. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
COLUMN AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAS CLIMBED TO 1.66 INCHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL MOVE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 93 AT
5 KNOTS. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS ARE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND
NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS UNTIL NEARING THE TROPOPAUSE.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT LASTED 99
MINUTES. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 42 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 281253
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVERHEAD. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
COLUMN AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAS CLIMBED TO 1.66 INCHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL MOVE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 93 AT
5 KNOTS. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS ARE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND
NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS UNTIL NEARING THE TROPOPAUSE.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT LASTED 99
MINUTES. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 42 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 281253
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVERHEAD. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
COLUMN AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAS CLIMBED TO 1.66 INCHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL MOVE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 93 AT
5 KNOTS. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS ARE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND
NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS UNTIL NEARING THE TROPOPAUSE.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT LASTED 99
MINUTES. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 42 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 281253
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OVERHEAD. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE
COLUMN AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE HAS CLIMBED TO 1.66 INCHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL MOVE IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 93 AT
5 KNOTS. WINDS AT MOST LEVELS ARE FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND
NO GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS UNTIL NEARING THE TROPOPAUSE.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT LASTED 99
MINUTES. THE BALLOON ASCENDED TO A HEIGHT OF 20.2 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BEFORE BURSTING OVER LAKE MAUREPAS 42 MILES DOWNRANGE
FROM THE OFFICE.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11


DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/12Z...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 28/14Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT KELD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KLFK. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...
5-10 KNOTS...AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

20



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281221
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/12Z...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH 28/14Z ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AT KELD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KMLU AND KLFK. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...
5-10 KNOTS...AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 281125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 281125
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
625 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING...THOUGH KAEX AND KBPT ARE REPORTING
VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SCATTERED
CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS ON REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES INLAND ARE LOWER TODAY VS
YESTERDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AMID
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MID MORNING TO AFTERNOON CU
FIELD IS EXPECTED...WHICH MAY YIELD A BRIEF MVFR CIG UPON
DEVELOPING.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

24

MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 281021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 281021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. AS A RESULT THE REGION CAN EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES
WITH UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND WITH VALUES RANGING TO NEAR
110...EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE DAY TODAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE MIXING OUT OVER PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL NOT SEE THE HIGH READINGS ABOVE 105 THERE. TOWARD MID TO LATE
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO TEXAS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT BACK DOORING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND IN WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WITH THE HIGHER READINGS OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA. THE WEEKEND MAY SEE A LITTLE
RELIEF IN THE HEAT...BUT BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND RETURN THE UPPER 90/S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS AGAIN. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
MLU 100  77 100  76 /  20  20  20  20
DEQ  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
TXK 100  77 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
ELD 100  76 100  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
GGG 100  78 101  78 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  99  76  99  76 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     018>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-112-126-
     138.

&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 280947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 280947
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OVER THE SRN CONUS
PER THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND UA ANALYSIS. OUR AREA CONTINUES UNDER
AN ELY FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE HIGH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES ACRS THE REGION WAS PRODUCING LT OR
NR CALM WINDS THIS MORNING. YET ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY LATE JULY
NIGHT UNDERWAY UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACRS CNTL PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO THE
MIDDLE 80S AT THE COAST. MEANWHILE KLCH 88D SHOWS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH A LITTLE MORE SCTD
ACTIVITY FURTHER OFFSHORE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABV NORMAL. SOME ISLTD AFTN
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SRN ZONES AS THE
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER SPARSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MIDDLE 90S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE APPROACHING THE
CENTURY MARK ACRS INTERIOR SE TX INTO WRN/CNTL LA. SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SFC THIS
MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY
BENEATH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID...THERE ARE A FEW ISLTD
SPOTS WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED THE THRESHOLD OF 108 DEGREES
DURING THE AFTN BUT THESE LOCALIZED SPOTS APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH
URBAN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES TEND TO RUN A LITTLE WARMER AS A
RULE. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT LET
DAYSHIFT FURTHER ASSESS SHOULD CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FCST TO BEGIN
MIGRATING WWD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RELINQUISHING ITS HOLD OVER
THE REGION SLIGHTLY AS A TROF DEEPENS OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL HELP SEND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT
WILL BECOME STALLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. E-NE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...AND WITH THE FRONT
AS A FOCUS...MORE SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WON`T BRING MUCH RELIEF FM THE
ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES...IT COULD PROVIDE SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MAKE THINGS A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE
WITH RESPECT TO HUMIDITY.

RAIN CHCS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LVLS SPREADS INTO THE REGION...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABV
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES
IN THE MID LVLS REGAINS CONTROL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MOSTLY LT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISLTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WLY AND BRINGING A BETTER
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  98  77  98  77 /  10  10  20  20
LCH  95  78  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
LFT  96  77  96  77 /  20  10  20  20
BPT  96  77  96  76 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLIX 280859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 280859
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STACKED HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR VERY LITTLE TO NO RAIN LATELY
IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BUT WILL BEGIN ITS SLOW
MIGRATION WESTWARD BY THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY CAUSING SOMEWHAT LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT IS THE ACTUAL AMBIENT
TEMP MOVES HIGHER. SO BASICALLY...WARMER ACTUAL TEMPS WITH NO HEAT
ADVISORY. REGARDLESS...THIS HEAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR RIGHT
AT TWO WEEKS NOW AND CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
WITH ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...
AS THE PRESSURE COOKING RIDGE BACKS OFF OVER THE COMING DAYS...WE
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK TO THE CONSTANT HEAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM BUT WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SH/TS AROUND THE AREA COOLING
THINGS DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. AS THE RIDGE BACKS OFF TO THE
WEST...IT WILL ALLOW THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO EASE DOWN INTO THE
AREA BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF SH/TS BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK. AN 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF STATES BRINGING A MUCH STRONGER FOCUS FOR SH/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT EACH OF THE TERMINALS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO VARY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND BE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE. SEAS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  97  75 /  20  10  30  30
BTR  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  30
ASD  96  76  96  77 /  20  10  30  30
MSY  94  77  94  79 /  20  10  30  30
GPT  94  77  95  78 /  20  20  30  30
PQL  95  76  95  77 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280535
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1235 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 29/06Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR 28/12Z FOR
DEEP EAST TEXAS AT KLFK. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO BE TOO FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AFTER 28/14Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-
     021-022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

20



000
FXUS64 KLIX 280420
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. A
FEW COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROVIDE
CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S PERSISTING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES TO AROUND
105 DEGREES... +/- 3 DEGREES.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD RANGING FROM 4000
TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. SKIES SHOULD TURN
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BUT RISK IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF FOG FORMS...
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 3 MILES. OVERALL...A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 32

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS
INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  99  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  77  97  79  97 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  78  95  79  96 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  78  95  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  77  96  79  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 280420
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. A
FEW COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROVIDE
CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S PERSISTING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES TO AROUND
105 DEGREES... +/- 3 DEGREES.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD RANGING FROM 4000
TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. SKIES SHOULD TURN
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BUT RISK IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF FOG FORMS...
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 3 MILES. OVERALL...A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 32

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS
INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  99  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  77  97  79  97 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  78  95  79  96 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  78  95  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  77  96  79  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 280420
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1120 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CWA. A
FEW COULD INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS BUT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND BEGIN DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND PROVIDE
CONVECTIVE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S PERSISTING. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES TO AROUND
105 DEGREES... +/- 3 DEGREES.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION THRU THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL OPEN THE CWA BACK UP TO TYPICAL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE WED ONWARD. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF COVERAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO DRIFTS NORTH AND STRETCHES SW TO NE WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD RANGING FROM 4000
TO 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN HOURS. SKIES SHOULD TURN
CLEAR AFTER 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PATCHY FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...BUT RISK IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. IF FOG FORMS...
VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO AROUND 3 MILES. OVERALL...A BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 32

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS...AND RATHER VARIABLE IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. BY MID WEEK...A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL DRAW WINDS
INTO IT WHICH WILL RESULT IN NWRLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WEST FLOW WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH FEATURES WILL NOT MEET OR EXCEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  99  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
BTR  76  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  77  97  79  97 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  78  95  79  96 /  10  10  10  20
GPT  78  95  79  95 /  10  10  10  30
PQL  77  96  79  96 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 280247
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE END OF DAYTIME CONVECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO ON LOCAL 88DS...EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE FALLING INTO PLACE
WITH INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NO UPDATE
PLANNED ATTM.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWING FAIRLY STAGNATE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N GULF...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER E TX/LA/MS. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS HAS DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND S OF I-10. A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP FURTHER INLAND...THUS
20-25% SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 90S ONCE AGAIN...MAYBE
A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING
FROM ~104-109 SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING TO SEE MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS WHICH WILL PUSH THE ADVISORY
CRITERIOR...SO WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY RIDE THRU 7 PM.

FOR THE EVENING HOURS...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH OF I-10. FOR TUE & WED...MORE
OF THE SAME...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. DEWPTS MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER...BUT STILL EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES 103-106
RANGE. WITH THE RIDGE STILL OVERHEAD...20% OF SHRA/TSRA AT BEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THU AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK SFC TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT WILL YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY FOR SC LA AND COASTAL WATERS. THE WEAK COOL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE WASHING
OUT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS IN
THE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA WILL LESSEN THE HEAT INDEX
VALUES SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IF ANY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT.

DML

MARINE...
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY FROM LATE NIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING TUESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FOR WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL BY
LATE IN THE WEEK...ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  98  77  98 /  20  20  10  20
LCH  77  95  78  96 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  76  96  77  96 /  20  20  10  20
BPT  76  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 280238 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
938 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY TO
BETTER REFLECT LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH 29/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR
28/12Z FOR DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS THROUGH 28/14Z WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 28/14Z. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 100 TO 105 ACROSS
EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. RUSTON AND MONROE HAVE THE
HIGHEST READINGS AT 107 AND 108 DEGREES.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT.

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.

NOT MUCH VARIATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AGAIN CLIMB TO NEAR 100 LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79 101  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  77 100  77 100 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  75  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  78 100  77 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  78  99  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78 100  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-012>014-021-
     022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097.

&&

$$

09



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