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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161307 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
807 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND HAVE ALSO REMOVED FROST FROM THE
WX GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE 12Z TERMINAL
PACKAGE...HAVE WENT WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV TERMINALS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING QUICKLY
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST. THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING
WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND MAINLY BELOW 10KTS. /13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST ISSUANCE. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAY CANCEL AFTER SUNRISE IF
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED IN THE WARNING AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT WIND SPEEDS
HAVE NOT DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
ALSO LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN
HRS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY
FCST WITH THE GFS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
QPF SIGNALS ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE MODELS LIKELY DUE TO
VERY WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCT SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY DRY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY AS SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP W OF THE REGION AND MOVE INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS SFC BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE NW AND BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO BE N OF THE AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MONDAY IN LATER FCSTS AS THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A RATHER ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
MLU  64  42  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEQ  64  41  67  50  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
TXK  65  42  68  51  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
ELD  63  40  69  50  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
TYR  67  49  71  55  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
GGG  66  45  71  54  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
LFK  70  49  72  55  76 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13





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000
FXUS64 KLCH 161251
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
751 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM UP THIS MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING FOR CNTL LA.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 161251
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
751 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM UP THIS MORNING SO WENT AHEAD AND
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING FOR CNTL LA.  24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 161152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  51  72  56 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  48  71  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 161152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN LATER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW LA/SE TX. FOR THIS FCST...WILL
CARRY SCT025...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT A TRUE MVFR CIG COULD
RESULT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  51  72  56 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  48  71  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014


.AVIATION...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE 12Z TERMINAL
PACKAGE...HAVE WENT WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV TERMINALS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING QUICKLY
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST. THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING
WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND MAINLY BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST ISSUANCE. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAY CANCEL AFTER SUNRISE IF
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED IN THE WARNING AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT WIND SPEEDS
HAVE NOT DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
ALSO LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN
HRS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY
FCST WITH THE GFS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
QPF SIGNALS ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE MODELS LIKELY DUE TO
VERY WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCT SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY DRY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY AS SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP W OF THE REGION AND MOVE INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS SFC BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE NW AND BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO BE N OF THE AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MONDAY IN LATER FCSTS AS THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A RATHER ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
MLU  64  42  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEQ  64  41  67  50  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
TXK  65  42  68  51  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
ELD  63  40  69  50  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
TYR  67  49  71  55  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
GGG  66  45  71  54  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
LFK  70  49  72  55  76 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 161001 CCA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24







000
FXUS64 KLCH 161001 CCA
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
458 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 160955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 160955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 160955
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNUSUALLY CHILLY MORNING UNDERWAY WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WERE NR CALM ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES AND COUNTIES...WERE
STILL EXPERIENCING WINDS 5-10 MPH. THE NEARLY FULL MOON IS
BRIGHTLY VISIBLE THIS MORNING THANKS TO CLR SKIES. THE COMBINATION
OF CLR SKIES AND LT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ACRS CNTL
LA...DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S AND TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
FALL QUITE AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING FOR THIS AREA WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL BRIEFLY
SEE FREEZING TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER THIS MORNINGS COLD TEMPERATURES...A WARMING TREND WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST
WITH SELY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
60S TODAY AND THEN TO THE LOWER 70S BY THURS WITH LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FM THE MIDDLE 40S ACRS CNTL LA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACRS
LOWER SE TX.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE SWLY THROUGH THURS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND WEAK LIFT GENERATED IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS BY
THURS AFTN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLTD TO WIDELY
SCT COVG AS THE IMPULSE CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURS INTO FRI. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...CROSSING THE AREA
THURS NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN A
SHIFT TO NELY WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NR NORMAL.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI INTO SAT WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT PRIOR TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN BY EASTER SUNDAY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A SLT
TO LOW END CHC IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE FCST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACRS
THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUES NIGHT INTO WED AS WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NR 80.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE TO E WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SELY BY THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURS NIGHT...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPING BY FRI MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THURS AND
THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  67  50  71  57 /   0  10  20  20
KBPT  69  56  73  58 /   0  10  20  10
KAEX  66  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  20
KLFT  67  49  72  57 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AVOYELLES-RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-EVANGELINE-
     ST. LANDRY-VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 160918
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST ISSUANCE. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAY CANCEL AFTER SUNRISE IF
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED IN THE WARNING AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT WIND SPEEDS
HAVE NOT DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
ALSO LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN
HRS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY
FCST WITH THE GFS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
QPF SIGNALS ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE MODELS LIKELY DUE TO
VERY WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCT SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY DRY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY AS SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP W OF THE REGION AND MOVE INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS SFC BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE NW AND BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO BE N OF THE AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MONDAY IN LATER FCSTS AS THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A RATHER ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
MLU  64  42  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEQ  64  41  67  50  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
TXK  65  42  68  51  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
ELD  63  40  69  50  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
TYR  67  49  71  55  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
GGG  66  45  71  54  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
LFK  70  49  72  55  76 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 160813
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
313 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING
WITH THE AXIS OF THE HIGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS
GULF COAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS
HAVE NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLED IN MOST AREAS...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
MOST TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 40S AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTIES WITH
TIMING ON SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS SEVERAL DAYS OUT THIS
MONTH...AND THAT TREND CONTINUES. GFS HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT OF AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ITS QUICKER MOVEMENT AND LESS DEVELOPED
SYSTEM. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HIGH ON RAIN CHANCES. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR OUR
AREA AND MAINLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.

ONLY SEE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS WEST OF US. MODERATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

TIMING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE 00Z RUNS ARE NOT AS GREAT AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA. WILL CARRY SMALL RAIN CHANCES WHERE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS...AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT THE TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE TOWARD THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE
TAF SITES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND
BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
6AM. THEREAFTER...THOSE AREAS WILL JOIN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS
WITH SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES THROUGH 10 AM.
GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  44  69  54 /   0  10  10  30
BTR  66  48  72  58 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  64  48  70  56 /   0  10  10  40
MSY  64  53  70  61 /   0  10  20  40
GPT  65  53  70  59 /   0  10  10  40
PQL  64  48  70  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 160459 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE W AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS SE OK/E TX...BEFORE
RAPIDLY SPREADING E AND AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE THIS EVENING
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LT/VRB WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASIDE
FROM LT SE WINDS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF E TX. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE TYR TERMINAL. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...BUT THIN CIRRUS SKIRTING NORTHERN TIER.
SOME OF THIS COULD DISAPPEAR WITH OUR PWAT AT TWO TENTHS. MANY
LOCALES NORTH AND EAST HAVE BEEN CALM SINCE SUNSET AND DEW POINTS
HAVE TAKEN A HIT IN THE WRONG DIRECTION FROM FRESH VAPOR OUT OF
THE SOIL. WE STILL SEE SCATTERED LOW 30S AND WITH TEMPS FALLING
THE RESIDUAL HEAT FROM THE DAY IS GOING TO RUN OUT AS THE TOP SOIL
CONTINUES TO COOL. 18Z MODEL DEW POINTS ARE ALMOST UNREASONABLE
COMPARED THESE MID EVENING READINGS...BUT THINKING IS THAT
OVERNIGHT WE WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE DEW POINT. TOUGH
CALL...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE IN THAT EVENT.
THE SECOND NIGHT IS TYPICALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR OUR EAST AND
WE WILL GO WITH THAT FOR PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE HIGHEST PRESSURE
AROUND IS JUST TO OUR EAST AT GREENVILLE MS AND TALLULAH LA AT
1025 MB. SO THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT NE WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA
FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE MIXING...BUT COLD AIR MASS MAY HAVE MODIFIED
JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH TODAY...THAT COUPLE WITH THE EARLY CALM
THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO WEATHER GRIDS IS PUSH BACK PATCHY
FROST FROM MIDNIGHT TO MATCH FREEZE WARNING IN THE WEE HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. AT ANY RATE...BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY WITH THE LAST
GASP OF WINTER IS THE FOUR STATE AREA. PLANTS SHOULD BE SAFE FROM
HERE OUT UNTIL NEXT FALL. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 160434
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 160434
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1134 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 160349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN RAPIDLY ON THE WAY TO RECORD
OR NEAR-RECORD BREAKING LOWS. COLD SURFACE HIGH RIDGING RIGHT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WHILE CLEAR SKIES
ARE OVERHEAD. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING. FORECAST
LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 160314
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1014 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA STILL BEING MET IN THE OPEN COASTAL
WATERS BUT WILL DIMINISHING STEADILY OVERNIGHT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ABATES. WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY RATHER QUICKLY AND
ESTABLISH SOME BAROCLINIC TIGHTENING FOR MODERATE WIND LEVELS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO FLIGHT THIS EVENING BUT THE REPLACEMENT PART DID ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...HAS BEEN INSTALLED AND TESTED OUT OKAY. SOUNDINGS WILL
RESUME AT 12Z.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS DOWN IN TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY FROM FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. THE LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD HELP KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON BOTH
THE DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 07/AM

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH
THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
WENT WITH MORE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

EXPECT TO SEE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO TRANSIT
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG OMEGA IN RELATION TO THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700
AND 850MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A LACK
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD
OF THE GULF SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING WILL BE PLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32/PG

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 07/AM

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS DROP BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DURING THE
DAY...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. 32/PG

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  64  44  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  37  65  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  37  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  44  62  53  70 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  40  64  53  69 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  36  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KSHV 160257
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
957 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...BUT THIN CIRRUS SKIRTING NORHTERN TIER.
SOME OF THIS COULD DISAPPEAR WITH OUR PWAT AT TWO TENTHS. MANY
LOCALES NORTH AND EAST HAVE BEEN CALM SINCE SUNSET AND DEW POINTS
HAVE TAKEN A HIT IN THE WRONG DIRECTION FROM FRESH VAPOR OUT OF
THE SOIL. WE STILL SEE SCATTERED LOW 30S AND WITH TEMPS FALLING
THE RESIDUAL HEAT FROM THE DAY IS GOING TO RUN OUT AS THE TOP SOIL
CONTINUES TO COOL. 18Z MODEL DEW POINTS ARE ALMOST UNREASONABLE
COMPARED THESE MID EVENING READINGS...BUT THINKING IS THAT
OVERNIGHT WE WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE DEW POINT. TOUGH
CALL...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE IN THAT EVENT.
THE SECOND NIGHT IS TYPICALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR OUR EAST AND
WE WILL GO WITH THAT FOR PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE HIGHEST PRESSURE
AROUND IS JUST TO OUR EAST AT GREENVILLE MS AND TALLULAH LA AT
1025 MB. SO THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT NE WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA
FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE MIXING...BUT COLD AIR MASS MAY HAVE MODIFIED
JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH TODAY...THAT COUPLE WITH THE EARLY CALM
THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO WEATHER GRIDS IS PUSH BACK PATCHY
FROST FROM MIDNIGHT TO MATCH FREEZE WARNING IN THE WEE HOURS
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AT ANY RATE...BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY WITH THE
LAST GASP OF WINTER IS THE FOUR STATE AREA. PLANTS SHOULD BE SAFE
FROM HERE OUT UNTIL NEXT FALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...WITH SKC
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SHOULD START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM THE W BY MIDMORNING OVER E TX/SE
OK...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY SW INTO ECNTRL TX SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT...BUT PERSISTING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE EASING UP. THUS...LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT /EXCEPT FOR LT SE
WINDS RETURNING TO E TX AFTER 06Z/ WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
FOUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES...MAINLY IN THEIR EASTERN MOST
SECTIONS ALONG RIVER AND BAYOU VALLEYS. THE LATE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS AT ALEXANDRIA AND VARIOUS RAWS STATIONS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE DROP
TO RIGHT AT FREEZING READINGS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE STILL
DAMP GROUND WILL RADIATE MOISTURE IN THE EXTREME LOWER ATMOSPHERE
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST EVEN WHERE NOT EXACTLY
FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURE SENSORS ARE NOT ON THE GROUND..BUT
MEASURE SOME 6 FEET UP. A FACT...WHICH OF COURSE WILL NOT LIMIT
THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS OF FROST FORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 152353
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 152353
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 152353
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 152353
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
653 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR
PREVAILING THROUGH THE COLUMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THESE
TAFS ARE BASICALLY NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD
BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE ATTM BUT HAVE RETAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF
10 KNOTS THROUGH 01Z JUST IN CASE...THEREAFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING EWD
PAST THE AREA. AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS A MORE SERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A FEW LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  69  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 152315 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...WITH SKC
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SHOULD START TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS FROM THE W BY MIDMORNING OVER E TX/SE
OK...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY SW INTO ECNTRL TX SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT...BUT PERSISTING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE EASING UP. THUS...LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT /EXCEPT FOR LT SE
WINDS RETURNING TO E TX AFTER 06Z/ WILL BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
FOUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES...MAINLY IN THEIR EASTERN MOST
SECTIONS ALONG RIVER AND BAYOU VALLEYS. THE LATE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS AT ALEXANDRIA AND VARIOUS RAWS STATIONS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE DROP
TO RIGHT AT FREEZING READINGS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE STILL
DAMP GROUND WILL RADIATE MOISTURE IN THE EXTREME LOWER ATMOSPHERE
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST EVEN WHERE NOT EXACTLY
FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURE SENSORS ARE NOT ON THE GROUND..BUT
MEASURE SOME 6 FEET UP. A FACT...WHICH OF COURSE WILL NOT LIMIT
THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS OF FROST FORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 152219
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
519 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
FOUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES...MAINLY IN THEIR EASTERN MOST
SECTIONS ALONG RIVER AND BAYOU VALLEYS. THE LATE AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS AT ALEXANDRIA AND VARIOUS RAWS STATIONS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE DROP
TO RIGHT AT FREEZING READINGS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE STILL
DAMP GROUND WILL RADIATE MOISTURE IN THE EXTREME LOWER ATMOSPHERE
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST EVEN WHERE NOT EXACTLY
FREEZING. AIR TEMPERATURE SENSORS ARE NOT ON THE GROUND..BUT
MEASURE SOME 6 FEET UP. A FACT...WHICH OF COURSE WILL NOT LIMIT
THE MICRO METEOROLOGICAL PROCESS OF FROST FORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND NORTH BREEZES BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY INTO MID TO UPPER 20S...REMAINING STEADY
OR POSSIBLY DROPPING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES...HAVE ISSUED FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA/SW AR/SE OK TONIGHT.
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MID 30S FOR MOST OF REST OF AREA...BUT
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN CWA...WHERE A
VERY LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE COULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVG THROUGH
VERY BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING THURSDAY AFTN...COULD BRING ISOLD
CONVECTION TO MAINLY SE OK/SW AR...AS MID LVL CAPPING AND DRY AIR
SEEM JUST A BIT MUCH FOR DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHLY DEEPER BUT STILL BROAD TROUGH SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...
AND CLEARING OUT EARLY MONDAY./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 152103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  70  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 152103
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
403 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
PASS NORMAL EARLY TO MID JANUARY HIGHS. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH
VALUES APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS
AROUND AND NORTH OF MARKSVILLE TO WOODWORTH TO FLATWOODS. FARTHER
SOUTH... FROM OPELOUSAS TO OAKDALE TO ANACOCO TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER AREAS OF FROST CAN
BE EXPECTED AND EVEN A FEW COLDER LOCATIONS IN SHELTERED AREAS,
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 32. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 10, BUT MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU TRAVEL.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY AND
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COLD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING WED
WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO LATE THU OR
FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.

SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AS A LOW EJECTS NE ACROSS THE PLAINS DRAWING
NORTH MOISTURE AND WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WED SHIFTING THE WINDS TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH WED MORNING IN THE GULF WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  51  71  58 /   0  10  10  20  20
KBPT  43  70  56  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  44  71  55 /   0  10  10  10  20
KLFT  38  66  49  70  59 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 152044
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL DESCEND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND 40S. COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPS DOWN IN TO THE MID
30S OVER THE NORTH SHORE WITH SOME LOCATIONS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO
SHY FROM FREEZING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM. THE LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD HELP KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING.

CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON BOTH
THE DAYTIME AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS. 07/AM

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...WITH
THE GFS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
WENT WITH MORE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

EXPECT TO SEE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIG INTO THE PLAINS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO TRANSIT
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG OMEGA IN RELATION TO THESE
SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER POPS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
TAKE PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 700
AND 850MB...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS DUE TO A LACK
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE UPPER LEVELS.

INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. STRONG RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD
OF THE GULF SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE FORCING WILL BE PLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT WILL
PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
LOW.

CONDITIONS WILL TURN A BIT MORE UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A WEAK SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING DOWN FROM THE PLAINS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE RISK OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 32/PG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING. 07/AM

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TOMORROW...OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN. EXPECT TO
SEE WINDS DROP BACK INTO EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE DURING THE
DAY...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.
UNFORTUNATELY...WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGE OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. EASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL
FALL TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. 32/PG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  34  64  44  69 /   0   0  10  20
BTR  37  65  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
ASD  37  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
MSY  44  62  53  70 /   0   0  10  20
GPT  40  64  53  69 /   0   0  10  20
PQL  36  63  48  69 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 151957
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR PERFECT RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND NORTH BREEZES BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY INTO MID TO UPPER 20S...REMAINING STEADY
OR POSSIBLY DROPPING A COUPLE MORE DEGREES...HAVE ISSUED FREEZE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHCENTRAL LA/SW AR/SE OK TONIGHT.
KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MID 30S FOR MOST OF REST OF AREA...BUT
INCLUDED PATCHY FROST FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN CWA...WHERE A
VERY LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE COULD BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
A WARMING TREND UNDERWAY BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. A SHORT WAVE MOVG THROUGH
VERY BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING THURSDAY AFTN...COULD BRING ISOLD
CONVECTION TO MAINLY SE OK/SW AR...AS MID LVL CAPPING AND DRY AIR
SEEM JUST A BIT MUCH FOR DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHLY DEEPER BUT STILL BROAD TROUGH SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND...BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...
AND CLEARING OUT EARLY MONDAY./VII/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-014-021.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 151727
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1227 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. SURFACE
WIND NORTHERLY 8 TO 12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING MARK
AREAWIDE SO REISSUED ZONES TO REMOVE THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF
FCST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTN. NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED./VII/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY
LIGHT NWLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW OK. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF NIGHTTIME COOLING AHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
OR COME VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
AREA AS WELL. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED E AND N OF A LINE FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO
LA SALLE PARISH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS BULK OF THE COLD
AIR SHOULD BE WELL NE OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL BE MORE ELY/SELY
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THE CHILLY
NIGHTS...DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FROPA TIMING AND QPF LIKELY BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SWLY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A TSTM COMPLEX OUT OF
W TX AND EWD ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT FCST BY THE ECMWF BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS SELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD USUALLY LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEHIND ANY OF THESE COLD FRONTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  66  46  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
MLU  33  63  43  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  30
DEQ  32  66  38  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  30
TXK  36  65  43  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  30
ELD  32  62  41  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  30
TYR  36  66  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  20  30
GGG  34  65  46  71  53 /   0  10  10  20  30
LFK  34  69  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY ISSUE IS WINDS WHICH ARE REMAINING OUT OF THE N TO NNE.
SPEEDS ARE REMAINING STEADY AROUND 16 TO 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL LIFT OFF SURFACE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OPTED TO ADDED FROST MENTION TO AREAS WERE WED MORNING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 35 OR LESS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
REMAIN UNCHANGED. ALSO, WILL WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE A CALL
ON THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NE SECTIONS AFTER LOOKING OVER THE
12Z MODELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE RIGHT AT OR BELOW 34
KNOTS. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  52  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  30
KBPT  43  68  57  73  62 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  46  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  38  67  50  73  61 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 151719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY ISSUE IS WINDS WHICH ARE REMAINING OUT OF THE N TO NNE.
SPEEDS ARE REMAINING STEADY AROUND 16 TO 21 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL LIFT OFF SURFACE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OPTED TO ADDED FROST MENTION TO AREAS WERE WED MORNING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 35 OR LESS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
REMAIN UNCHANGED. ALSO, WILL WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE A CALL
ON THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NE SECTIONS AFTER LOOKING OVER THE
12Z MODELS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE RIGHT AT OR BELOW 34
KNOTS. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  38  67  52  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  30
KBPT  43  68  57  73  62 /   0  10  10  20  20
KAEX  33  66  46  71  59 /   0  10  10  20  30
KLFT  38  67  50  73  61 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALLEN...EVANGELINE...ST. LANDRY...VERNON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151425
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
925 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER OPTED TO ADDED FROST MENTION TO AREAS WERE WED MORNING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 35 OR LESS. ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS
REMAIN UNCHANGED. ALSO, WILL WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE A CALL
ON THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE NE SECTIONS AFTER LOOKING OVER THE
12Z MODELS.





&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

UPDATE...
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE RIGHT AT OR BELOW 34
KNOTS. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  67  52  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  63  42  68  57  73 /   0   0  10  10  20
KAEX  60  33  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  36  67  50  73 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 151405
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
905 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZE WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHERN CWA WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE FREEZING MARK
AREAWIDE SO REISSUED ZONES TO REMOVE THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF
FCST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTN. NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
REAR FLANK OF EASTWARD MOVING SC DECK JUST NOW MOVING THE MLU
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT
60-70% MOISTURE DECK AT 850MB LEVEL SO MADE MENTION OF A
SCATTERED CU FIELD AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS NEAR OR AROUND THE
18Z HOUR BUT ANY CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE BY 00Z WED.

PRESSURE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT ACROSS N LA/S AR AND AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 18-20KTS AT THE SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. WENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT OR CALM WINDS WITH A SE COMPONENT NEAR 3-5KTS AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS NEAR OR AFTER 06Z WED.

/13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY
LIGHT NWLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW OK. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF NIGHTTIME COOLING AHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
OR COME VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
AREA AS WELL. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED E AND N OF A LINE FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO
LA SALLE PARISH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS BULK OF THE COLD
AIR SHOULD BE WELL NE OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL BE MORE ELY/SELY
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THE CHILLY
NIGHTS...DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FROPA TIMING AND QPF LIKELY BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SWLY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A TSTM COMPLEX OUT OF
W TX AND EWD ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT FCST BY THE ECMWF BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS SELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD USUALLY LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEHIND ANY OF THESE COLD FRONTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  36  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
MLU  60  33  63  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  61  32  66  38  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
TXK  59  36  65  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ELD  58  32  62  41  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  62  36  66  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
GGG  61  34  65  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
LFK  62  34  69  49  72 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE RIGHT AT OR BELOW 34
KNOTS. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

.RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  67  52  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  63  42  68  57  73 /   0   0  10  10  20
KAEX  60  33  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  36  67  50  73 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 151211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED. LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF THE GUSTS BEING REPORTED ARE RIGHT AT OR BELOW 34
KNOTS. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE GALE WARNING EXPIRE AND KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

.RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  67  52  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  63  42  68  57  73 /   0   0  10  10  20
KAEX  60  33  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  36  67  50  73 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 151149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  63  42  68  57 /   0   0  10  10
KAEX  60  33  66  46 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  60  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERMILION
     BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 151149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  63  42  68  57 /   0   0  10  10
KAEX  60  33  66  46 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  60  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERMILION
     BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 151149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  63  42  68  57 /   0   0  10  10
KAEX  60  33  66  46 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  60  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERMILION
     BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 151149
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
15/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
UPPER TROF. CLEARING LINE NOW APPROACHING THE LFT/ARA
TERMINALS...WITH SKC AT OTHER AIRPORTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH STRONG GUSTY NLY WINDS THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 360-020 WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30 KT AT TIMES TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING
THE AFTN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
FALLING BELOW 10 KT BY 00Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NE
THEN E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

..RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10
KBPT  63  42  68  57 /   0   0  10  10
KAEX  60  33  66  46 /   0   0  10  10
KLFT  60  36  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-
     JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CAMERON-
     IBERIA-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CALCASIEU
     LAKE-SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERMILION
     BAY.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLIX 151138
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
638 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THERE WILL BE NO UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM LIX AGAIN THIS MORNING AS
THERE IS A SERIOUS EQUIPMENT PROBLEM WHICH IS NOT ALLOWING THE
RADIOSONDE TO SPEAK TO THE DATA COLLECTION SYSTEM. WE ARE
AGGRESSIVELY WORKING THE PROBLEM AND HOPE TO HAVE UPPER AIR DATA
FOR THE 00Z LAUNCH THIS EVENING.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL LAND AREAS AS OF 3 AM...WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GULFPORT TO GRAND ISLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE
WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT.

SHORT TERM...

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH
ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS COME UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
CARRYING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES. WILL MENTION COLD
TEMPERATURES IN HWO AND PROBABLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING COLD TEMPERATURES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
MONDAY...AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN THEN...BUT EVEN THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
DETAILS IN EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CARRY
THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ECMWF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CUTS OFF A LOW IN THE SAME
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH STALLS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY. THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...LENDING SOMEWHAT MORE
CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION. A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS PICK UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.

WILL CARRY SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND THEN DRY UNTIL THE MONDAY
SHORTWAVE...WHERE SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 11 AM TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY STRONG
MAGNITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 11

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  34  64  44 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  61  35  67  48 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  62  34  65  48 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  62  44  65  54 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  63  38  65  52 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  62  35  65  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 151015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

&&

.CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  67  52  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  63  42  68  57  73 /   0   0  10  10  20
KAEX  60  33  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  36  67  50  73 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 151015
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EARLY MORNING
TAKING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT. ALSO...AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH HELPING TO FINALLY BREAK-UP STRATO-CU
WHICH...FOR THE MOST PART...KEPT SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM SEEING ANY OF THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TODAY WITH A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS. WINDS WILL STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...SO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR
THAT AREA.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MASS...TO ALLOW
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE. BOTH EURO AND GFS GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURE MEANS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH MOST
SITES SEEING RECORD LOWS. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SUCH
AS KESF AND KACP FOR EXAMPLE. WITH SOME SPRING PLANTING ALREADY
TAKING PLACE...PRECAUTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZE WARNING BEING ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IN TEMPERATURES...WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO COME INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND TO WHEN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MAY
INFLUENCE POPS. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DRY PERIOD...WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK IN
FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
COASTAL WATER TODAY. THE COLD AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM GULF WATERS...WILL HELP PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE STILL BEING REPORTED...SO WILL KEEP
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TIDE GAUGES SHOW THAT TIDE
LEVELS HAVE RECOVERED AND ARE ABOVE (-1) MLLW...WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING TIDE READING SHOULD STAY ABOVE THIS NUMBER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THEREFORE...THE LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DROPPED.

WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN...THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

RUA

&&

.CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TODAY 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........63........64 IN 1974
AEX.........60........57 IN 1933
LFT.........60........61 IN 1928
ARA.........60........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........33........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  37  67  52  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
KBPT  63  42  68  57  73 /   0   0  10  10  20
KAEX  60  33  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
KLFT  60  36  67  50  73 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST.
     MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 151003
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
503 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
REAR FLANK OF EASTWARD MOVING SC DECK JUST NOW MOVING THE MLU
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT
60-70% MOISTURE DECK AT 850MB LEVEL SO MADE MENTION OF A
SCATTERED CU FIELD AT THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS NEAR OR AROUND THE
18Z HOUR BUT ANY CU FIELD SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE BY 00Z WED.

PRESSURE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT ACROSS N LA/S AR AND AS A RESULT...COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 18-20KTS AT THE SHV/MLU/ELD TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. WENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT OR CALM WINDS WITH A SE COMPONENT NEAR 3-5KTS AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS NEAR OR AFTER 06Z WED.

/13/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY
LIGHT NWLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW OK. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF NIGHTTIME COOLING AHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
OR COME VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
AREA AS WELL. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED E AND N OF A LINE FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO
LA SALLE PARISH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS BULK OF THE COLD
AIR SHOULD BE WELL NE OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL BE MORE ELY/SELY
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THE CHILLY
NIGHTS...DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FROPA TIMING AND QPF LIKELY BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SWLY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A TSTM COMPLEX OUT OF
W TX AND EWD ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT FCST BY THE ECMWF BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS SELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD USUALLY LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEHIND ANY OF THESE COLD FRONTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  36  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
MLU  60  33  63  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  61  32  66  38  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
TXK  59  36  65  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ELD  58  32  62  41  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  62  36  66  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
GGG  61  34  65  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
LFK  62  34  69  49  72 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 150935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES AND ADVECTION OF COLD AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY
LIGHT NWLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP OFF NICELY THIS MORNING.
TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FREEZING IN THE TERRAIN OF SE OK/SW OK. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF NIGHTTIME COOLING AHEAD...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
OR COME VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
AREA AS WELL. LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED E AND N OF A LINE FROM MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO
LA SALLE PARISH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS BULK OF THE COLD
AIR SHOULD BE WELL NE OF THE CWA AND WINDS WILL BE MORE ELY/SELY
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE COOLING SOMEWHAT. DESPITE THE CHILLY
NIGHTS...DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK
INTO THE 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF FROPA TIMING AND QPF LIKELY BECAUSE THIS
SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP SATURDAY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SWLY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND SHOULD BRING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. GFS IS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A TSTM COMPLEX OUT OF
W TX AND EWD ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY NEAR I-20 BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SFC BOUNDARY IS NOT FCST BY THE ECMWF BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS SELY SFC WINDS COMBINED WITH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD USUALLY LEADS TO AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
REGION BEHIND ANY OF THESE COLD FRONTS. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  36  66  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
MLU  60  33  63  43  70 /   0   0  10  10  10
DEQ  61  32  66  38  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
TXK  59  36  65  43  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
ELD  58  32  62  41  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
TYR  62  36  66  49  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
GGG  61  34  65  46  71 /   0   0  10  10  20
LFK  62  34  69  49  72 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

09/13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 150833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL LAND AREAS AS OF 3 AM...WITH BACK EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM GULFPORT TO GRAND ISLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE
OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY IN THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...WHERE
WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING...TAKING THE
RAIN WITH IT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH
ALL AREAS SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
HAS COME UP A BIT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
CARRYING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE AT MOST SITES. WILL MENTION COLD
TEMPERATURES IN HWO AND PROBABLY ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HIGHLIGHTING COLD TEMPERATURES.

DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN
MONDAY...AND ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER ON WEDNESDAY. SOME
MODERATION WILL BEGIN THEN...BUT EVEN THURSDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
DETAILS IN EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CARRY
THURSDAYS SHORTWAVE OFF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT ECMWF UNCHARACTERISTICALLY CUTS OFF A LOW IN THE SAME
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH STALLS THE PATTERN BRIEFLY. THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED BY WPC...LENDING SOMEWHAT MORE
CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION. A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS PICK UP ON THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT ECMWF SOLUTION DOES NOT BRING PRECIPITATION INTO
THE AREA.

WILL CARRY SMALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY
WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND THEN DRY UNTIL THE MONDAY
SHORTWAVE...WHERE SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED AGAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS BY THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT
THE TAF SITES TODAY...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT
KNEW AND KMSY. 11

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUATION OF THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 11 AM TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY STRONG
MAGNITUDES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             GALE WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
             WIND ADVISORY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ORLEANS PARISH

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  34  64  44 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  61  35  67  48 /  10   0  10  10
ASD  62  34  65  48 /  10   0  10  10
MSY  62  44  65  54 /  10   0  10  10
GPT  63  38  65  52 /  10   0  10  10
PQL  62  35  65  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 150513
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1213 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO REMOVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH STILL SOME GUSTS TO TEENS
AND LOW 20S EAST...BUT EVEN CALM NOW AT DE QUEEN. A FEW TWEAKS TO
SKY AS WELL UPDATES ON THE WAY POST EDITING. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ACROSS MLU/ELD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15/09Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON TUESDAY WITH 10 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS AFTER 16/00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  68  47  71  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
MLU  33  67  46  72  57 /   0   0  10  20  30
DEQ  32  66  44  67  49 /   0   0  10  20  40
TXK  36  66  45  67  53 /   0   0  10  20  30
ELD  32  66  44  71  54 /   0   0  10  20  40
TYR  36  68  50  70  54 /   0   0  10  30  20
GGG  34  68  49  70  55 /   0   0  10  30  30
LFK  34  69  50  72  59 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 150447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED SE OF THE TERMINALS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT TO
CROSS KLFT/KARA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KBPT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NOW
PREVAILING...WITH THE SABINE RIVER THE BASIC CURRENT BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL TROF PUSHES
EWD AND SCOURS OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREAFTER THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRONG NRLY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PRESENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS SHOULD
RELAX TOWARD SUNSET TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED SE OF THE TERMINALS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT TO
CROSS KLFT/KARA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KBPT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NOW
PREVAILING...WITH THE SABINE RIVER THE BASIC CURRENT BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL TROF PUSHES
EWD AND SCOURS OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREAFTER THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRONG NRLY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PRESENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS SHOULD
RELAX TOWARD SUNSET TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED SE OF THE TERMINALS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT TO
CROSS KLFT/KARA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KBPT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NOW
PREVAILING...WITH THE SABINE RIVER THE BASIC CURRENT BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL TROF PUSHES
EWD AND SCOURS OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREAFTER THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRONG NRLY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PRESENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS SHOULD
RELAX TOWARD SUNSET TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1147 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH HAS BEEN
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HAS MOVED SE OF THE TERMINALS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS LEFT TO
CROSS KLFT/KARA. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE WRAP
AROUND LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KBPT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NOW
PREVAILING...WITH THE SABINE RIVER THE BASIC CURRENT BACK EDGE OF
THE CLOUD SHIELD. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRYING ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL TROF PUSHES
EWD AND SCOURS OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. THEREAFTER THE MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE THE STRONG NRLY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
THANKS TO A PRESENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS SHOULD
RELAX TOWARD SUNSET TUESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 150438
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014


.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ACROSS MLU/ELD TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15/09Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK ON TUESDAY WITH 10 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS AFTER 16/00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  60  36  68  47 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  36  60  33  67  46 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  30  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  60  36  66  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  33  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  61  36  68  50 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  34  61  34  68  49 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  36  63  34  69  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ071>073.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096.

&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 150421 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVING CONVECTIVE HEADLINES FROM PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. ALL
WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AT 11 PM. THE COASTAL AND WIND BASED WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. ALSO...ADJUSTED POPS IN THE
SHORT-TERM TO HANDLE CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CAVOK BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY...PARTICULARLY AT KNEW WITH WARM WATER/COLD AIR
INTERACTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINTAINING GALE WARNINGS WHICH HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BACK END
A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AS WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DROP DURING SHARP
COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO SOUNDING THIS EVENING DUE TO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ATTEMPTING TO
LOCK ON TO INSTRUMENT DURING BASELINE WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE LAUNCH WINDOW. WE HAVE A 1 HOUR WINDOW TO LAUNCH BETWEEN
00Z-01Z TO MAKE CUT-OFF FOR DATA INGEST INTO MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...TENTATIVE SURVEY TEAM TO JACKSON CO MS TUE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR NW ZONES) UNTIL 04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
SE LA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.

14/MM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  90  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  20   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  20   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  20   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR
     SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLCH 150259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 150259
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NOW PRIMARILY OVER ACADIANA...
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. BULK OF
PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED AND ALLOWED PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE.
CLEARING LINE HAS REACHED THE SABINE RIVER. CLEAR SKIES PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST AT NEAR 25 MPH. SHOULD TREND CONTINUE...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE
TONIGHTS...BLOOD MOON.


&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  41  64  38  67  53 /  20  10   0  10  10
KBPT  41  64  40  69  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  10  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  50  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
     ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 150259
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
959 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS NOW DRAPED FROM TOLEDO BEND UP INTO
SOUTH ARKANSAS. MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING FOR A
GOOD WHILE WITH MOSTLY LOW TO MID 40S EVERYWHERE AT THIS TIME
CLEAR OR CLOUDY. WE HAD SPLIT THE EVENING WEATHER GRID FOR RAIN UNTIL
03Z AND MONROE IS MAKING GOOD ON IT...BUT FOR THIS UPDATE WE HAVE
REMOVED WORDING FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. SFC GUSTS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BUT SHREVEPORT AND NATCHITOCHES STILL GUSTING TO LAKE
CRITERIA...SO WE HAD TO KEEP A THIRD OR SO FOR S AR AND THE
PARISHES. OTHERWISE...DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING
NORTH AND UPPER 20S ARE LURKING JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO THE FREEZE WARNING COUNTIES. IT WILL BE A LIGHT
FREEZE UP NORTH...BUT ANYWHERE SHELTERED FROM THE WIND WILL HAVE
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT FROST WITH MID 30S IN THE FORECAST. OF
COURSE THAT IS A GOOD BIT OFF THE GROUND AND THE MICRO PROCESS OF
RADIATION OBVIOUSLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE MERCURY TO DROP ON THE
GROUND RIGHT AS THE DEW FORMS AROUND DAYBREAK. KEEP THE PLANTS
SAFE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL WITH AN EVEN LARGER AREA LIKELY TO
SEE A SPRING FROST WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN PLACE BY THEN. WE WILL
UPDATE AGAIN AT MIDNIGHT HOPEFULLY TO EXPIRE REMAINING LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES TO BECOME VFR THROUGH
15/06Z. EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING 5 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  60  36  68  47 /  10   0   0   0  10
MLU  36  60  33  67  46 /  10   0   0   0  10
DEQ  30  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  60  36  66  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  33  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  61  36  68  50 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  34  61  34  68  49 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  36  63  34  69  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ071>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLIX 150153 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
853 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA (EXCEPT THE FAR NW ZONES) UNTIL 04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH A
LINGERING THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT
SE LA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THE MS COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
08Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.

14/MM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  90  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  90  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER
     ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON
     SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE
     LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 142343
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...BECOMING 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT. CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL SITES TO BECOME VFR THROUGH
15/06Z. EXPECT SKC CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY WITH NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING 5 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  60  36  68  47 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  36  60  33  67  46 /  40   0   0   0  10
DEQ  30  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  60  36  66  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  33  60  32  66  44 /  30   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  61  36  68  50 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  34  61  34  68  49 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  36  63  34  69  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 142319 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
619 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
TO ADD WATCH HEADLINES FOR EXTENSION OF WS 81...NOW TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL 9 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  70  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSHV 142210
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
510 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EXPIRED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 80 FROM OUR
TEXT PRODUCTS. ALSO MADE FEW EDITS TO WEATHER AND POPS INTO MID
EVENING AND WE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT THE
MID EVENING UPDATE WITH ALREADY SOME OF THE STRONGER GUSTS
SLACKING A BIT. AS SKIES CLEAR THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY STG COLD FRONT CREATING RAPIDLY FALLING AFTN TEMPS WITH FROPA
ACROSS AREA. THIS FRONT HAS WRAPPED WELL AROUND THRU SE TX...BUT
IS STILL JUST EXITING SE CWA. SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 5 PM FOR MAINLY
HAIL IN POST FRONTAL CONVECTION...SO ADDED REMAINDER OF AFTN
PERIOD TO FCST. HOWEVER..THIS STRONGER CONVECTION MAY SOON EXIT
THE ENTIRE CWA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...AND
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY STILL
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THESE FACTORS COULD PLACE THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NW CWA IN QUESTION...HOWEVER...THESE
FACTORS MAY BE OFFSET BY COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING WARM AIR A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING INTO AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING AGAIN FOR AN EVEN
LARGER AREA OF NORTHERN CWA POSSIBLY NEEDED BY THEN. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...INCLUDING EASTER
WEEKEND...BUT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES TOO MUCH TO PUT MORE THAN
20 AND 30 POPS ANYWHERE ATTM./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  60  36  68  47 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  36  60  33  67  46 /  40   0   0   0  10
DEQ  30  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  60  36  66  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  33  60  32  66  44 /  30   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  61  36  68  50 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  34  61  34  68  49 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  36  63  34  69  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 142128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

&&

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  38  67  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
KBPT  44  64  40  69  58 /  30  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  30  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  60  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

TINGLER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 142128
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
428 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLICE THROUGH THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S
FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING TUE MORNING. CONVECTION IS STILL ON-GOING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAINING STEEP. A LONE
SVR TSRA IS NOTED SW OF HOUSTON. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 81
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE AFTERNOON AND A
WIND ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM I-10 SOUTH.

NOW WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER AND THE ECLIPSE TONIGHT... IT WILL
BE A CLOSE CALL. TOTALITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z (2-3 AM
LOCAL TIME) WHICH MAY ONLY ALLOW FOR SE TX AND FAR WESTERN LA TO
VIEW THE ECLIPSE. THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO THE LESSER THE CHANCE TO
VIEW IT.

COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR TUES AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING
FROM THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENLA BY WED MORNING. TEMPERATURES
AROUND RECORD LOW VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED AREA WIDE WITH THE 30S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING
WED STARTING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND BY AFTERNOON.

LATE IN THE WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE PLAINS AND DRAWS NORTH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY.


&&

.MARINE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY TUE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SEAS AT 10 FEET OR
POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE OUTER GULF ZONES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WATER LEVELS BELOW NORMAL AT THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING TUE AND
TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE.

&&

FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD...

CLIMATE...

COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  44  64  38  67  53 /  30  10   0  10  10
KBPT  44  64  40  69  58 /  30  10   0  10  10
KAEX  40  61  33  66  46 /  30  10   0  10  10
KLFT  45  60  37  66  51 /  60  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...LAFAYETTE...UPPER ST. MARTIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

TINGLER





000
FXUS64 KLIX 142126
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
426 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. INITIALLY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED OVERALL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BANDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
KEPT IN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A TREND
TOWARD DECREASING COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO
COMBINATION OF HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AND PW VALUES RUNNING
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE WIND FIELD WILL TURN MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN FACT...MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POST-FRONTAL AND AS A RESULT ELEVATED. OVERALL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS IN
THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARMER WATERS
OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THESE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD OVER METRO NEW
ORLEANS TONIGHT. AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW...WINDS WILL FALL BACK BELOW 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHSHORE.
ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE LARGE BATTERING
WAVES IMPACTING THE ORLEANS PARISH SHORELINE ALONG LAKESHORE
DRIVE. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE LEVEE PROTECTION ALONG THE LAKEFRONT IN NEW ORLEANS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AS A DEEP COLD POOL
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S TONIGHT...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING...BUT AT THIS TIME A FREEZE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...FROST COULD BE A CONCERN. THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL
WILL BEGIN TO PULL TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN A GOOD
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTER REVIEWING THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...HAVE DECIDED TO TOSS
OUT THE GFS MODEL RUN AND WENT EXCLUSIVELY WITH THE EURO. WITH
THAT IN MIND...EXPECT A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO SPARK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...

IN GENERAL...MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 1500-2500 FEET AND VISIBILITIES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM 3 TO 5
MILES. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL BRING
REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES TO THE TERMINALS...RESULTING
IN IFR RESTRICTIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING FROM 06Z TO 14Z TONIGHT
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN AT THE SURFACE FORMS AN ELEVATED
INVERSION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW...AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG WINDS IMPACTING KNEW
AND KMSY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KNEW.

&&

.MARINE...

GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MARINE ZONE
WATERS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 7
TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND ROUGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET
IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE EAST AND THE OVERALL PRESSURE
GRADIENT EASES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
MONITORING RIVER FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN
THREATS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  44  61  33  64 /  70  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  34  66 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  49  62  33  65 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  50  61  43  65 /  90  10   0   0
GPT  52  63  37  65 /  90  10   0   0
PQL  52  62  34  65 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KSHV 142023
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY STG COLD FRONT CREATING RAPIDLY FALLING AFTN TEMPS WITH FROPA
ACROSS AREA. THIS FRONT HAS WRAPPED WELL AROUND THRU SE TX...BUT
IS STILL JUST EXITING SE CWA. SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 5 PM FOR MAINLY
HAIL IN POST FRONTAL CONVECTION...SO ADDED REMAINDER OF AFTN
PERIOD TO FCST. HOWEVER..THIS STRONGER CONVECTION MAY SOON EXIT
THE ENTIRE CWA. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT...AND
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY STILL
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THESE FACTORS COULD PLACE THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR FAR NW CWA IN QUESTION...HOWEVER...THESE
FACTORS MAY BE OFFSET BY COLD AIR UNDERCUTTING WARM AIR A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING INTO AREA FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING AGAIN FOR AN EVEN
LARGER AREA OF NORTHERN CWA POSSIBLY NEEDED BY THEN. UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...INCLUDING EASTER
WEEKEND...BUT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES TOO MUCH TO PUT MORE THAN
20 AND 30 POPS ANYWHERE ATTM./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  60  36  68  47 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  36  60  33  67  46 /  40   0   0   0  10
DEQ  30  60  32  66  44 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  34  60  36  66  45 /  10   0   0   0  10
ELD  33  60  32  66  44 /  30   0   0   0  10
TYR  34  61  36  68  50 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  34  61  34  68  49 /  10   0   0   0  10
LFK  36  63  34  69  50 /  20   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 141827
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
127 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON THEN WIDESPREAD FROM 21Z MONDAY TO 04Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS
WILL BOUNCE FROM 500 TO 2500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. STRONG TSRA ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS
PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS 21Z MONDAY TO 04Z
TUESDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MOST SITES 02 TO 04Z WITH
STRONG NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CEILING WILL SLOWLY
ASCEND BUT IFR CONDITION MAY EXIST THROUGH 12Z THEN THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 18

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 141824
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES TO DISMISS OUTDATED HIGH TEMPS TODAY...AS THESE
TEMPS BEHIND THE STG COLD FRONT HAVE BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATING TO INCLUDE REMAINING PORTIONS OF AREA IN LAKE WIND ADVISORY...
AS COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NW WINDS HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AND MOVING ACROSS NW LA./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR FLIGHT WEATHER TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 5 HUNDRED AND 1 KFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS...HAIL AND SEVERE TURBULENCE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER 21Z. AFTER 00Z...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WIND FOLLOWING FROPA
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO 30 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 15/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORM INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...PROMPTING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH THRU 5
PM...FOR HAIL. NO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.

NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  36  60  36  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
MLU  68  36  60  33  67 /  40  40   0   0   0
DEQ  46  30  60  32  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  46  34  60  36  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
ELD  53  33  60  32  66 /  40  30   0   0   0
TYR  45  34  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  47  34  61  34  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  56  36  63  34  69 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 141720
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1220 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATING TO INCLUDE REMAINING PORTIONS OF AREA IN LAKE WIND ADVISORY...
AS COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NW WINDS HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AND MOVING ACROSS NW LA./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR FLIGHT WEATHER TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 5 HUNDRED AND 1 KFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS...HAIL AND SEVERE TURBULENCE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER 21Z. AFTER 00Z...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WIND FOLLOWING FROPA
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO 30 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 15/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORM INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...PROMPTING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH THRU 5
PM...FOR HAIL. NO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.

NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  36  60  36  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
MLU  70  36  60  33  67 /  40  40   0   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  58  34  60  36  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  33  60  32  66 /  40  30   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  34  61  34  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  70  36  63  34  69 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 141714
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR FLIGHT WEATHER TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 5 HUNDRED AND 1 KFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 2 AND 5 MILES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS...HAIL AND SEVERE TURBULENCE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA AFTER 21Z. AFTER 00Z...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH MOST LOCATIONS VFR AFTER 06Z. SURFACE WIND FOLLOWING FROPA
NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO 30 KTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
10 KTS AFTER 15/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORM INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...PROMPTING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH THRU 5
PM...FOR HAIL. NO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.

NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  36  60  36  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
MLU  70  36  60  33  67 /  40  40   0   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  58  34  60  36  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  33  60  32  66 /  40  30   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  34  61  34  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  70  36  63  34  69 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 141629
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
GFS AND MET GUIDANCE ARE BOTH MAINTAINING NORTH WINDS AT ABOVE 30
KNOTS AT LAKEFRONT FROM 06Z TO 12Z. IN ADDITION...ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AT NEW CANAL AND OTHER POINTS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THIS DURATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PUSH
WATER ON ROADS OUTSIDE THE PROTECTION LEVEE AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE
HUGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS PW VALUES ARE UP TO
1.63 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE SHOWN.
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 13K FEET BUT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AROUND 11K. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES REACH TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES. THE SOUNDING HODOGRAPH
ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED SHAPE WITH HELICITY VALUES
BETWEEN 350-400 M2/S2 AT THE PRESENT TIME...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS NUMBER DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY BEFORE THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ALL OF THAT SAID...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BEGINNING LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS TODAY.

98/SO

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

.STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ST. LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SAGGED
SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 20. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT HAS BECOME DRIVEN BY A COLD
POOL ON THE NORTH END AND HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST BARELY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-MISS AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND MERGED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CROSSING OVER INTO THE ADJACENT UPPER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL PERIOD AS FAR AS SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BE FROM NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...MEAN LAYER
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF  -4 TO -8 FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
TORNADOES...BUT STILL ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MOSTLY LINEAR. EVEN AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LINEAR...THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE BEST INITIALIZED ECMWF AND
THE SUITE OF MESOSCALE BASED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL DURING PEAK HEATING AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST BASED OFF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ECMWF
QPF...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES. A MAJOR
CONCERN OF PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD BE EXACTLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN
STEERING CURRENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN BACK-BUILDING OR
REGENERATIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
OF THE WRF MODELS THAT INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE MAV MOS FOR KNEW/LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT HAVE INDICATED AROUND 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DURING THE PERIOD
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST 35 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN GUSTS. AM ANTICIPATING NORTH WINDS WILL EASILY
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVER MOST AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
THAT THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT OF THE SOUTHSHORE COULD BE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OR WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE
ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WIND ADVISORY ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUCH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEE SYSTEM...LIKE ON THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF LAKESHORE DRIVE IN
NEW ORLEANS. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED IN THE WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT.

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

22/TD

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTENDED
SCENARIO...BUT HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION NOW AT LEAST HAS A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIES EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NOW CLOSER TO
WHAT GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. WILL HOLD MINIMAL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RECOGNITION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY SITES. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
COULD HAVE AN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER BIG
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG TSRA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS
ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MANY OF THE TSRA
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. WINDS THEN SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...BUT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY AT THAT POINT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  43  58  33  69 /  80  10   0   0
BTR  46  61  36  70 /  70  10   0   0
ASD  48  62  35  69 /  90  10   0   0
MSY  49  61  43  68 /  80  10   0   0
GPT  51  63  38  68 /  90  20   0   0
PQL  51  62  34  68 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND ORLEANS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 141550
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORM INTENSITIES ARE INCREASING...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM...PROMPTING A SEVERE TSTM WATCH THRU 5
PM...FOR HAIL. NO DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TYR...TXK
TERMINALS AND ALMOST ON TOP OF THE GGG TERMINAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM NEAR LFK TO MLU AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. CEILINGS DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT GO TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN BECOME MVFR
WHILE CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY MVFR.

FOR THE TERMINAL PACKAGE TODAY...PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VCSH AND/OR VCTS MENTION. LATEST HRRR DATA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO MADE MENTION OF
THIS AS WELL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THUS...EXPECT SUSTAINED POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

/13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.

NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  36  60  36  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
MLU  70  36  60  33  67 /  40  40   0   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  58  34  60  36  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  33  60  32  66 /  40  30   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  34  61  34  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  70  36  63  34  69 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$

VII






000
FXUS64 KSHV 141449
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
949 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
AREA...WITH STG COLD FRONT BISECTING THE REGION. EXPECT INCREASING
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG COLD FRONT TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA BY MIDDAY. SMALL SHOWERS
ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...SO
RAISED POPS BACK UP INTO CHANCE CATEGORY./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TYR...TXK
TERMINALS AND ALMOST ON TOP OF THE GGG TERMINAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM NEAR LFK TO MLU AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL. NEW STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS ATTM. CEILINGS DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT GO TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT THEN BECOME MVFR
WHILE CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE MOSTLY MVFR.

FOR THE TERMINAL PACKAGE TODAY...PREVAILED MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VCSH AND/OR VCTS MENTION. LATEST HRRR DATA
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS TO MADE MENTION OF
THIS AS WELL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THUS...EXPECT SUSTAINED POST FRONTAL WINDS OF 14-18KTS
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

/13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A BUSY MORNING TO SAY THE LEAST WITH VARIOUS ELEMENTS TO CONTEND
WITH AS IT RELATES TO WWA CRITERIA SO APOLOGIZE FOR THE BELATED
DISCUSSION. FIRST THINGS FIRST...ALL CONVECTIVE WATCHES HAVE
EITHER EXPIRED OR BEEN DROPPED FOR OUR REGION AS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE
PRIMARILY TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BUT ALSO SIGNIFICANT DRY
SLOTTING WHICH WAS NOT EXACTLY FORESEEN. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT DID NOT MATERIALIZE...A FEW
ISOLD SEVERE STORMS DID PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER
EXTREME SW ARKANSAS AND ONE POSSIBLE TORNADO OVER NE TX LATE
SUNDAY.

NOW SHIFTING GEARS TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS...THE FRONT ITSELF WAS LOCATED ALONG A PBF...TXK...CRS
LINE AS OF 10Z THIS MORNING GENERALLY SPLITTING OUR CWA IN HALF.
CONVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHWRS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL AR
BACK OVER MUCH OF N LA AND LOWER E TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NW
WINDS AND SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND OVER SE OK AND
EXTREME NE TX. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PROMPTED A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE FOR TODAY...ALBEIT STARTING A BIT
LATER ACROSS OUR SERN HALF AS CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET OVER
THESE AREAS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT DILEMMA IS DETERMINING HOW FAR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND IF WE SEE NEAR FREEZING OR
EVEN SUB-FREEZING READINGS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THEY MAKE IT. THE
BEST HACK FOR NOW IS SE OK...ALL OF OUR NRN TIER AR COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY RED RIVER COUNTY IN NE TX. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THESE AREAS TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DURATION SEEMS A BIT
LONGER THAN WHAT MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR...WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE ARE
COVERED ON EITHER SIDE IN CASE THE AIR MASS IS EVEN COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. A FEW OTHER NOTES WORTH MENTIONING INCLUDE
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING EVEN
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAYBE A FEW LOCATIONS FARTHER
SOUTH IN SRN AR/NRN LA SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZE
WARNINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND GENERALLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS MIXED WITH A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURNING BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW TX. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  36  60  36  68 /  40  20   0   0   0
MLU  70  36  60  33  67 /  60  40   0   0   0
DEQ  55  30  60  32  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  58  34  60  36  66 /  30  10   0   0   0
ELD  65  33  60  32  66 /  40  30   0   0   0
TYR  58  34  61  36  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  62  34  61  34  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
LFK  70  36  63  34  69 /  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ060-061-071>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-070.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ152-153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 141447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX WHILE THIS OCCURS. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RETURNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE REGION.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
REGARDING THE POPS AND TEMPS. ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND LIFTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
UPGRADED THE COASTAL WATER HAZARDS TO A GALE WARNING BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM NR MONROE TO NACOGDOCHES SW TO
NEAR AUSTIN...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING A BPT-AEX LINE BY 15Z-18Z...LCH
BY 18Z-19Z AND LFT/ARA BY 21Z-22Z. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ALSO PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 1.75 INCHES AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY SMALL CAP THAT
REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE RESULT BEING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH MID LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS...AND BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0
AND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SHARPLY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL END SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE
"BLOOD" MOON TONIGHT THAT BEGINS AROUND 1 AM CDT AND ENDS AROUND
4:30 AM CDT...WITH THE TOTALITY OCCURRING AROUND 2:45 AM CDT.
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS. AREAS FROM THE SABINE
TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AROUND THE START OF THE ECLIPSE...SO WILL HAVE ABOUT A 50/50
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS FEATURE. THOSE TO THE EAST OVER ACADIANA MAY
BE A LITTLE BIT MORE UNFORTUNATE AT CLEARING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER THE ECLIPSE HAS OCCURRED.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND RECORD LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RECORDS ARE NOTED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE
LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK...AND THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR
SPRING PLANTING WILL WANT TO TAKE SPECIAL NOTE OF THIS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND.

FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EASTER WEEKEND IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AT THIS
TIME WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...AS
SOUTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE WITH A SERIES OF
PACIFIC FRONTS.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A
LITTLE THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT DECREASES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH AN UNUSUALLY
COLD AIR MASS MOVING DOWN OVER WARMER GULF WATERS...THE WINDS WILL
BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS (GALE FORCE) ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEFINITELY OVERTAKE THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...HAVE
OPTED FOR A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATER DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH WATER AWAY FROM
THE COAST...PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

CLIMATE...
COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  43  62  37  68 /  70  30  10   0  10
KBPT  79  43  64  42  70 /  60  30  10   0  10
KAEX  78  39  58  34  69 /  60  30  10   0  10
KLFT  80  44  59  36  67 /  70  50  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 141447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX WHILE THIS OCCURS. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RETURNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE REGION.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
REGARDING THE POPS AND TEMPS. ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND LIFTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
UPGRADED THE COASTAL WATER HAZARDS TO A GALE WARNING BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM NR MONROE TO NACOGDOCHES SW TO
NEAR AUSTIN...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING A BPT-AEX LINE BY 15Z-18Z...LCH
BY 18Z-19Z AND LFT/ARA BY 21Z-22Z. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ALSO PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 1.75 INCHES AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY SMALL CAP THAT
REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE RESULT BEING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH MID LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS...AND BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0
AND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SHARPLY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL END SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE
"BLOOD" MOON TONIGHT THAT BEGINS AROUND 1 AM CDT AND ENDS AROUND
4:30 AM CDT...WITH THE TOTALITY OCCURRING AROUND 2:45 AM CDT.
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS. AREAS FROM THE SABINE
TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AROUND THE START OF THE ECLIPSE...SO WILL HAVE ABOUT A 50/50
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS FEATURE. THOSE TO THE EAST OVER ACADIANA MAY
BE A LITTLE BIT MORE UNFORTUNATE AT CLEARING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER THE ECLIPSE HAS OCCURRED.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND RECORD LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RECORDS ARE NOTED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE
LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK...AND THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR
SPRING PLANTING WILL WANT TO TAKE SPECIAL NOTE OF THIS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND.

FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EASTER WEEKEND IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AT THIS
TIME WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...AS
SOUTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE WITH A SERIES OF
PACIFIC FRONTS.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A
LITTLE THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT DECREASES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH AN UNUSUALLY
COLD AIR MASS MOVING DOWN OVER WARMER GULF WATERS...THE WINDS WILL
BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS (GALE FORCE) ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEFINITELY OVERTAKE THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...HAVE
OPTED FOR A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATER DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH WATER AWAY FROM
THE COAST...PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

CLIMATE...
COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  43  62  37  68 /  70  30  10   0  10
KBPT  79  43  64  42  70 /  60  30  10   0  10
KAEX  78  39  58  34  69 /  60  30  10   0  10
KLFT  80  44  59  36  67 /  70  50  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 141447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX WHILE THIS OCCURS. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RETURNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE REGION.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
REGARDING THE POPS AND TEMPS. ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND LIFTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
UPGRADED THE COASTAL WATER HAZARDS TO A GALE WARNING BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM NR MONROE TO NACOGDOCHES SW TO
NEAR AUSTIN...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING A BPT-AEX LINE BY 15Z-18Z...LCH
BY 18Z-19Z AND LFT/ARA BY 21Z-22Z. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ALSO PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 1.75 INCHES AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY SMALL CAP THAT
REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE RESULT BEING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH MID LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS...AND BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0
AND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SHARPLY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL END SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE
"BLOOD" MOON TONIGHT THAT BEGINS AROUND 1 AM CDT AND ENDS AROUND
4:30 AM CDT...WITH THE TOTALITY OCCURRING AROUND 2:45 AM CDT.
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS. AREAS FROM THE SABINE
TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AROUND THE START OF THE ECLIPSE...SO WILL HAVE ABOUT A 50/50
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS FEATURE. THOSE TO THE EAST OVER ACADIANA MAY
BE A LITTLE BIT MORE UNFORTUNATE AT CLEARING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER THE ECLIPSE HAS OCCURRED.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND RECORD LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RECORDS ARE NOTED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE
LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK...AND THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR
SPRING PLANTING WILL WANT TO TAKE SPECIAL NOTE OF THIS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND.

FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EASTER WEEKEND IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AT THIS
TIME WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...AS
SOUTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE WITH A SERIES OF
PACIFIC FRONTS.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A
LITTLE THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT DECREASES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH AN UNUSUALLY
COLD AIR MASS MOVING DOWN OVER WARMER GULF WATERS...THE WINDS WILL
BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS (GALE FORCE) ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEFINITELY OVERTAKE THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...HAVE
OPTED FOR A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATER DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH WATER AWAY FROM
THE COAST...PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

CLIMATE...
COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  43  62  37  68 /  70  30  10   0  10
KBPT  79  43  64  42  70 /  60  30  10   0  10
KAEX  78  39  58  34  69 /  60  30  10   0  10
KLFT  80  44  59  36  67 /  70  50  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 141447
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
947 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM SHREVEPORT TO
HUNTSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER AS
THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WX WHILE THIS OCCURS. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY RETURNING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE REGION.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING
REGARDING THE POPS AND TEMPS. ADJUSTED THE POPS DOWN FOR THE REST
OF THE MORNING AND LIFTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
UPGRADED THE COASTAL WATER HAZARDS TO A GALE WARNING BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDS AND TO MATCH UP WITH SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
14/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM NR MONROE TO NACOGDOCHES SW TO
NEAR AUSTIN...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN
THE MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...REACHING A BPT-AEX LINE BY 15Z-18Z...LCH
BY 18Z-19Z AND LFT/ARA BY 21Z-22Z. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ALSO PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LAST EVENING. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ANOTHER PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ENTER THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 1.75 INCHES AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70F. SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD INCREASE AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY SMALL CAP THAT
REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE RESULT BEING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. STORMS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST...AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH MID LEVEL JET AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS...AND BULK SHEAR
AROUND 50 KNOTS...WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6.0
AND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRONG AND GUSTY
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE STORMS. SPC DOES HAVE THE AREA
OUTLINED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL SHARPLY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE GRID ACCORDINGLY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS WILL END SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND REDUCE CLOUD COVER. THERE IS THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE OF THE
"BLOOD" MOON TONIGHT THAT BEGINS AROUND 1 AM CDT AND ENDS AROUND
4:30 AM CDT...WITH THE TOTALITY OCCURRING AROUND 2:45 AM CDT.
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS. AREAS FROM THE SABINE
TO ROUGHLY AN ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE CHARLES LINE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
AROUND THE START OF THE ECLIPSE...SO WILL HAVE ABOUT A 50/50
CHANCE OF SEEING THIS FEATURE. THOSE TO THE EAST OVER ACADIANA MAY
BE A LITTLE BIT MORE UNFORTUNATE AT CLEARING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE
UNTIL AFTER THE ECLIPSE HAS OCCURRED.

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE AIR MASS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD
WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLEST HIGHS ON TUESDAY...AND RECORD LOWS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE RECORDS ARE NOTED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE
LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA MAY EVEN FLIRT
WITH THE FREEZING MARK...AND THOSE WHO HAVE ALREADY STARTED THEIR
SPRING PLANTING WILL WANT TO TAKE SPECIAL NOTE OF THIS.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL
BEGIN A WARMING TREND.

FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EASTER WEEKEND IS A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. AT THIS
TIME WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...AS
SOUTHERN JET LOOKS TO BE ON THE ACTIVE SIDE WITH A SERIES OF
PACIFIC FRONTS.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A
LITTLE THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT DECREASES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL KICK OFF SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH AN UNUSUALLY
COLD AIR MASS MOVING DOWN OVER WARMER GULF WATERS...THE WINDS WILL
BE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30
KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS (GALE FORCE) ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
DEFINITELY OVERTAKE THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE...HAVE
OPTED FOR A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTER WATER DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH WATER AWAY FROM
THE COAST...PRODUCING LOW WATER CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING LOW TIDE TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

RUA

CLIMATE...
COOLEST MAX FOR TUE 4/15
SITE......FORECAST...COOLEST MAX
LCH.........62........63 IN 1928
BPT.........64........64 IN 1974
AEX.........58........57 IN 1933
LFT.........59........61 IN 1928
ARA.........61........60 IN 1997

RECORD LOW FOR WED 4/16
SITE......FORECAST...RECORD LOW
LCH.........37........38 IN 1913
BPT.........42........37 IN 1961
AEX.........34........38 IN 1961
LFT.........36........38 IN 1928
ARA.........37........38 IN 1983

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  43  62  37  68 /  70  30  10   0  10
KBPT  79  43  64  42  70 /  60  30  10   0  10
KAEX  78  39  58  34  69 /  60  30  10   0  10
KLFT  80  44  59  36  67 /  70  50  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 141353
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
853 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE
HUGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS PW VALUES ARE UP TO
1.63 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. IN ADDITION...0-3KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS ARE SHOWN.
FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 13K FEET BUT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE LOWER AROUND 11K. AS THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PROGRESS...DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES REACH TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MLCAPE WITH MODERATE LAPSE RATES. THE SOUNDING HODOGRAPH
ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CURVED SHAPE WITH HELICITY VALUES
BETWEEN 350-400 M2/S2 AT THE PRESENT TIME...ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS NUMBER DROPPING OFF CONSIDERABLY BEFORE THE
STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

ALL OF THAT SAID...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...BEGINNING LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND DAMAGING HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS. SEE BELOW DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS TODAY.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

..STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM ST. LOUIS TO TEXARKANA TO THE
BIG BEND OF TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SAGGED
SOUTH TO INTERSTATE 20. ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT HAS BECOME DRIVEN BY A COLD
POOL ON THE NORTH END AND HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ALL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS JUST BARELY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
LOWER 70S THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHING INTO MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-MISS AREA THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL AND MERGED BOUNDARIES
OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY CROSSING OVER INTO THE ADJACENT UPPER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES DURING THE MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
A LULL PERIOD AS FAR AS SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AND ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. A
STRONGER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWS OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHICH WILL BE FROM NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS TO THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...MEAN LAYER
CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LIS OF  -4 TO -8 FROM AROUND MIDDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT IDEAL FOR
TORNADOES...BUT STILL ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MOSTLY LINEAR. EVEN AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LINEAR...THERE COULD STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL LINE TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE A
BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FOR STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY SLOW MOVING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES...ST. TAMMANY PARISH...AND THE MISSISSIPPI
GULF COAST WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE BEST INITIALIZED ECMWF AND
THE SUITE OF MESOSCALE BASED MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL DURING PEAK HEATING AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST BASED OFF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ECMWF
QPF...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES. A MAJOR
CONCERN OF PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD BE EXACTLY OPPOSED TO THE MEAN
STEERING CURRENTS WHICH COULD RESULT IN BACK-BUILDING OR
REGENERATIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SUPPORTS SOME
OF THE WRF MODELS THAT INDICATE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER SOME AREAS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO NEAR OR JUST
OFFSHORE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST.

OTHER BIG CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE MAV MOS FOR KNEW/LAKEFRONT
AIRPORT HAVE INDICATED AROUND 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DURING THE PERIOD
FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE AT LEAST 35 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO BRING THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT LEAST IN GUSTS. AM ANTICIPATING NORTH WINDS WILL EASILY
BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE OVER MOST AREAS JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE TIDAL LAKES...AND NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE AS INDICATED IN THE MOS GUIDANCE
THAT THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT OF THE SOUTHSHORE COULD BE IN HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA OF 40 TO 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OR WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT HAVE
ISSUED A STRONGLY WORDED WIND ADVISORY ADDRESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN SUCH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...LARGE
BATTERING WAVES ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION
LEVEE SYSTEM...LIKE ON THE LOW LYING SECTIONS OF LAKESHORE DRIVE IN
NEW ORLEANS. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED IN THE WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT.

AFTER A WARMER THAN NORMAL SPELL...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZE COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS.

22/TD

LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EXTENDED
SCENARIO...BUT HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. ECMWF SOLUTION NOW AT LEAST HAS A SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DRIES EVERYTHING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NOW CLOSER TO
WHAT GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING. WILL HOLD MINIMAL MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND IN RECOGNITION OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO WASH OUT ALONG THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT UNSEASONABLY COLD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE IN
RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY SITES. WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD AS SOME
OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
COULD HAVE AN AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 35

AVIATION...

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OTHER BIG
ISSUE WILL BE STRONG TSRA. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NUMEROUS
ENOUGH FOR MENTION AS PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN MOST OF THE TAFS AT
SOME POINT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MANY OF THE TSRA
WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBYS BELOW 2 MILES. CONVECTIVE GUSTS
OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 22/TD

MARINE...

WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY BY LATE EVENING AS
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF A GALE WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS NOTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. WINDS THEN SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT...BUT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL BE NECESSARY AT THAT POINT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING.
             MONITORING CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN TRENDS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  43  58  33 /  90  80  10   0
BTR  81  46  61  36 /  80  70  10   0
ASD  80  48  62  35 /  90  90  10   0
MSY  81  49  61  43 /  90  80  10   0
GPT  78  51  63  38 /  90  90  20   0
PQL  78  51  62  34 /  90  90  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ASSUMPTION...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
     LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
     TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN
     THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
     PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MONDAY TO 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

GM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
     LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









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