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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
THERE MIGHT BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE
4 AM ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BY THAT TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 02/14Z. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS AFTER 02/14Z WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TXK/TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV TERMINAL SITES AFTER 02/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  10  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  10  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  10  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  10  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  10  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  10  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  10  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  10  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 020246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST TONIGHT.
THERE MIGHT BE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING...BUT THE
4 AM ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BY THAT TIME. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 02/14Z. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS AFTER 02/14Z WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TXK/TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV TERMINAL SITES AFTER 02/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  10  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  10  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  10  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  10  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  10  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  10  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  10  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  10  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 020222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ATTM... MORNING LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION IN SE
TX... MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS AND ALONG THE COAST
THRU THE OVRNGHT HRS W/ A BIT OF FOG XPCD TWRDS SR ELSEWHERE.

TMRW WILL SEE THE CHANGES TOWARDS FALL... AND A END TO THE INDIAN
SUMMER BY FRIDAY... OH WELL THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.
TMRW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE SPILLING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
CNTRL TX BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. CHCS WILL INCR INTO THE AFTN
AND FINALLY INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THEREFORE RAINFALL TOTALS SHLD RMN UNDER
TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH A FEW LCTNS MAY GET A BIT MORE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR ANY ONE STORM TO BECOME SEVERE EARLY
FRIDAY MRNG AHEAD OF THE FROPA. BEST SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN
AND AROUND ARKANSAS/ MISSOURI AND EASTWARD.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE REGION... THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP GREAT...
CLR SKIES... LOW RH... NORTH WINDS... AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE 80 BY THE AFTN HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 020222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ATTM... MORNING LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION IN SE
TX... MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS AND ALONG THE COAST
THRU THE OVRNGHT HRS W/ A BIT OF FOG XPCD TWRDS SR ELSEWHERE.

TMRW WILL SEE THE CHANGES TOWARDS FALL... AND A END TO THE INDIAN
SUMMER BY FRIDAY... OH WELL THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.
TMRW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE SPILLING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
CNTRL TX BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. CHCS WILL INCR INTO THE AFTN
AND FINALLY INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THEREFORE RAINFALL TOTALS SHLD RMN UNDER
TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH A FEW LCTNS MAY GET A BIT MORE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR ANY ONE STORM TO BECOME SEVERE EARLY
FRIDAY MRNG AHEAD OF THE FROPA. BEST SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN
AND AROUND ARKANSAS/ MISSOURI AND EASTWARD.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE REGION... THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP GREAT...
CLR SKIES... LOW RH... NORTH WINDS... AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE 80 BY THE AFTN HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 020222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ATTM... MORNING LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION IN SE
TX... MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS AND ALONG THE COAST
THRU THE OVRNGHT HRS W/ A BIT OF FOG XPCD TWRDS SR ELSEWHERE.

TMRW WILL SEE THE CHANGES TOWARDS FALL... AND A END TO THE INDIAN
SUMMER BY FRIDAY... OH WELL THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.
TMRW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE SPILLING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
CNTRL TX BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. CHCS WILL INCR INTO THE AFTN
AND FINALLY INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THEREFORE RAINFALL TOTALS SHLD RMN UNDER
TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH A FEW LCTNS MAY GET A BIT MORE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR ANY ONE STORM TO BECOME SEVERE EARLY
FRIDAY MRNG AHEAD OF THE FROPA. BEST SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN
AND AROUND ARKANSAS/ MISSOURI AND EASTWARD.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE REGION... THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP GREAT...
CLR SKIES... LOW RH... NORTH WINDS... AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE 80 BY THE AFTN HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 020222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
922 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NIGHT OF WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ATTM... MORNING LOWS LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S ACRS CNTRL LA AND THE LAKES REGION IN SE
TX... MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE
COAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS AND ALONG THE COAST
THRU THE OVRNGHT HRS W/ A BIT OF FOG XPCD TWRDS SR ELSEWHERE.

TMRW WILL SEE THE CHANGES TOWARDS FALL... AND A END TO THE INDIAN
SUMMER BY FRIDAY... OH WELL THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.
TMRW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE SPILLING
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
CNTRL TX BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE THE NOON HOUR. CHCS WILL INCR INTO THE AFTN
AND FINALLY INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THEREFORE RAINFALL TOTALS SHLD RMN UNDER
TWO INCHES ALTHOUGH A FEW LCTNS MAY GET A BIT MORE. THERE LOOKS TO
BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR ANY ONE STORM TO BECOME SEVERE EARLY
FRIDAY MRNG AHEAD OF THE FROPA. BEST SVR POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE IN
AND AROUND ARKANSAS/ MISSOURI AND EASTWARD.

THE GOOD NEWS FOR THE REGION... THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP GREAT...
CLR SKIES... LOW RH... NORTH WINDS... AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO
MAKE 80 BY THE AFTN HRS BOTH SAT AND SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 012341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  87  73  85 /  20  50  70  30
KBPT  78  88  74  85 /  20  40  70  40
KAEX  73  88  71  84 /  20  40  70  20
KLFT  76  87  74  86 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 012341
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
641 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU AND CONVECTION COMING TO AN END...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LT SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS EXPECTED. CIGS WILL LIFT
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW -SHRA DEVELOPING. SHRA/TSRA TO
BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCT BY AFTN AND CARRIED VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 17Z. SLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10 KT THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  87  73  85 /  20  50  70  30
KBPT  78  88  74  85 /  20  40  70  40
KAEX  73  88  71  84 /  20  40  70  20
KLFT  76  87  74  86 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 012321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 02/14Z. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS AFTER 02/14Z WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TXK/TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV TERMINAL SITES AFTER 02/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  20  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  20  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  20  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  20  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  20  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  20  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  20  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  20  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 012321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS TO ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...RETURNING TO VFR
AFTER 02/14Z. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS AFTER 02/14Z WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
TXK/TYR/GGG/LFK/SHV TERMINAL SITES AFTER 02/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  20  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  20  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  20  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  20  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  20  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  20  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  20  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  20  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 012055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOST PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED
ONSHORE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONSHORE FLOW IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RETURNED TO NEAR 2 INCHES. MESOSCALE MODELING STILL SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS WILL
BE UNCAPPED...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE AREA JUST BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND CONVECTION
WILL BE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO SEVERE STORM RISK
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS LINE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

FRONTAL TIMING IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM IS SLOWER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND DISCOUNTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THREAT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TOO WARM
FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF THOSE VALUES
SEVERAL DEGREES. BEHIND THE FRONT...HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MAV
NUMBERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING QUICKER THAN THE NAM/MET
SOLUTION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS IS OVERALL A DRY PATTERN FOR THE AREA IN OCTOBER.
HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE
SPRINGTIME. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA USUALLY SUBJECT TO
DRAINAGE FLOW COULD FALL INTO THE 40S SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
GONE QUITE AS COOL AS THE MEX DATA...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE IT OUT EITHER. A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA AND A REPEAT OF THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A FEW TAF
SITES. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  88  72  83 /  30  50  60  50
BTR  73  89  74  85 /  30  60  60  50
ASD  73  88  75  85 /  30  60  50  50
MSY  76  88  77  85 /  30  60  40  50
GPT  74  86  75  84 /  20  50  50  60
PQL  70  87  75  84 /  10  50  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 012055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOST PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED
ONSHORE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED...TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. DEW POINTS ARE BETWEEN 70 AND 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONSHORE FLOW IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE
RETURNED TO NEAR 2 INCHES. MESOSCALE MODELING STILL SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS WILL
BE UNCAPPED...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH
THE AREA. MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER THE CONVECTION
REACHES THE AREA JUST BEFORE OR JUST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. WILL CARRY
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPTIMAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND CONVECTION
WILL BE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...SO SEVERE STORM RISK
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. AS LINE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
NOT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.

FRONTAL TIMING IS BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM IS SLOWER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND DISCOUNTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THREAT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT TOO WARM
FOR TOMORROW AND FRIDAY...AND HAVE BACKED OFF OF THOSE VALUES
SEVERAL DEGREES. BEHIND THE FRONT...HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MAV
NUMBERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING QUICKER THAN THE NAM/MET
SOLUTION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THIS IS OVERALL A DRY PATTERN FOR THE AREA IN OCTOBER.
HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE
SPRINGTIME. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA USUALLY SUBJECT TO
DRAINAGE FLOW COULD FALL INTO THE 40S SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
GONE QUITE AS COOL AS THE MEX DATA...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...CANNOT RULE IT OUT EITHER. A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONDAY/TUESDAY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA AND A REPEAT OF THE
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ONGOING AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. EXPECT MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IN EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A FEW TAF
SITES. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW HAS TURNED ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  88  72  83 /  30  50  60  50
BTR  73  89  74  85 /  30  60  60  50
ASD  73  88  75  85 /  30  60  50  50
MSY  76  88  77  85 /  30  60  40  50
GPT  74  86  75  84 /  20  50  50  60
PQL  70  87  75  84 /  10  50  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 012034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 012034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 012034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 012034
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE IS PROVIDING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE REGION
IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR
MASS...A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
THEN DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. FRONTAL LIFT...AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITH THE STORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT DURING
FRIDAY WITH DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL END SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD AND SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND...AND SHOULD BRING ABOUT A COUPLE OF VERY NICE
FALL DAYS...WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS.

RETURN FLOW AND A SLOW WARM-UP WILL THEN START EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. MODERATE TO BRIEFLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  87  74  85  57 /  20  50  70  40  10
KBPT  78  88  74  85  58 /  20  40  70  40  10
KAEX  73  88  71  84  52 /  20  40  70  20   0
KLFT  75  87  75  86  55 /  30  50  60  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 012005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE CONTINUES TO BE SET FOR OUR FIRST POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT OF THE FALL SEASON. POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED
IN WV IMAGERY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF OVER SRN
CA/AZ WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SFC FRONTOGENESIS WILL UNFOLD RATHER QUICKLY DURING THURSDAY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TO THE NE. THE FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING AT OUR
BACK DOOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ANY
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT THIS. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SFC
FORCING AND DECENT WIND SHEAR...A SOLID SQUALL LINE IS FCST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY. STORMS SHOULD BE E OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...AS A 1027 SFC HIGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MAX TEMPS
TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY FALL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A REINFORCING BACK-DOOR FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS NW FLOW CONTINUES OVHD. GFS/EURO/CANADIAN
TRADING SHOTS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT.
TODAY...THE EURO/CANADIAN ARE WET AND THE GFS IS DRY WITH THIS
FROPA. SINCE THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE OCCURRING IN THE DAY 6-7
TIMEFRAME...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS CAN SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO MOSTLY HIGH MVFR
CAT..AND WILL LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL SCT DECKS THIS
AFTN. NUMEROUS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING
ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA...NO THUNDER AS OF YET...AS LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEP...YET MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  20  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  20  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  20  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  20  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  20  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  20  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  20  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  20  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 012005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE STAGE CONTINUES TO BE SET FOR OUR FIRST POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT OF THE FALL SEASON. POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED
IN WV IMAGERY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF OVER SRN
CA/AZ WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SFC FRONTOGENESIS WILL UNFOLD RATHER QUICKLY DURING THURSDAY...AS
THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TO THE NE. THE FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING AT OUR
BACK DOOR BY THURSDAY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP TO
GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ANY
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT THIS. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SFC
FORCING AND DECENT WIND SHEAR...A SOLID SQUALL LINE IS FCST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY. STORMS SHOULD BE E OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY...AS A 1027 SFC HIGH SHIFTS SEWD INTO OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CHILLY
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MAX TEMPS
TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY FALL NORMALS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

A REINFORCING BACK-DOOR FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS NW FLOW CONTINUES OVHD. GFS/EURO/CANADIAN
TRADING SHOTS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP SOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT.
TODAY...THE EURO/CANADIAN ARE WET AND THE GFS IS DRY WITH THIS
FROPA. SINCE THESE UNCERTAINTIES ARE OCCURRING IN THE DAY 6-7
TIMEFRAME...WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS CAN SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO MOSTLY HIGH MVFR
CAT..AND WILL LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL SCT DECKS THIS
AFTN. NUMEROUS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING
ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA...NO THUNDER AS OF YET...AS LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEP...YET MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT./VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  67  80  48 /  20  30  70  10   0
MLU  72  90  70  83  49 /  20  30  60  20   0
DEQ  72  88  56  75  41 /  20  60  70  10   0
TXK  73  88  62  75  48 /  20  40  70  10   0
ELD  71  88  64  78  44 /  20  30  70  10   0
TYR  76  93  62  81  50 /  20  40  70  10   0
GGG  74  93  63  81  47 /  20  30  70  10   0
LFK  76  93  70  83  52 /  20  30  60  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12







000
FXUS64 KLCH 011744
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS WILL COME A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND CARRYING VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. EXPECTING TO SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AS
WELL AS SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE A RETURN
TO THE AREA POST-SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALSO
IN PLAY WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 01/12Z SHOWING A PWAT
VALUE OVER 2.25 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
IS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE. SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  86  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  86  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  85  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011744
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IS RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS WILL COME A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND CARRYING VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS. EXPECTING TO SEE A REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT WITH A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AS
WELL AS SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. SHOWERS SHOULD MAKE A RETURN
TO THE AREA POST-SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALSO
IN PLAY WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 01/12Z SHOWING A PWAT
VALUE OVER 2.25 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
IS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE. SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  86  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  86  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  85  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 011714
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO MOSTLY HIGH MVFR
CAT..AND WILL LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL SCT DECKS THIS
AFTN. NUMEROUS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING
ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA...NO THUNDER AS OF YET...AS LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEP...YET MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AS EVIDENCED BY THIS MORNING`S FOG AND
STRATUS AND THE DEW POINTS...WHICH HAVE SOARED BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. EXPECTING A GOOD WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE-
ENHANCED SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE DAY
RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INCREASING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING
AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  30  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  30  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 011714
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS AREA HAVE GRADUALLY LIFTED TO MOSTLY HIGH MVFR
CAT..AND WILL LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR CIGS AND OCNL SCT DECKS THIS
AFTN. NUMEROUS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS INCREASING
ACROSS NE TX AND NW LA...NO THUNDER AS OF YET...AS LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEP...YET MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS BY AROUND 02/15Z. MVFR AND POSSIBLE
IFR CIGS ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 02/06Z...WITH LIMITED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AS EVIDENCED BY THIS MORNING`S FOG AND
STRATUS AND THE DEW POINTS...WHICH HAVE SOARED BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. EXPECTING A GOOD WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE-
ENHANCED SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE DAY
RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INCREASING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING
AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  30  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  30  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 011618
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROF AS EVIDENCED BY THIS MORNING`S FOG AND
STRATUS AND THE DEW POINTS...WHICH HAVE SOARED BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S AREAWIDE. EXPECTING A GOOD WARM UP TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WITH SOME SEA BREEZE-
ENHANCED SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO COVER CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE DAY
RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INCREASING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING
AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  30  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  30  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KLCH 011522
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1022 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALSO
IN PLAY WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 01/12Z SHOWING A PWAT
VALUE OVER 2.25 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
IS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE. SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  86  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  86  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  85  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 011522
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1022 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALSO
IN PLAY WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 01/12Z SHOWING A PWAT
VALUE OVER 2.25 INCHES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
IS DEVELOPING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
TAP INTO THE MOISTURE. SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  86  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  86  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  85  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 011430
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IS
MUCH MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED A FURTHER UPDATE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  60  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  70  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  60  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  70  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011430
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IS
MUCH MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED A FURTHER UPDATE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  60  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  70  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  60  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  70  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011430
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IS
MUCH MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED A FURTHER UPDATE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  60  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  70  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  60  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  70  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 011430
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
WARM FRONT MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IS
MUCH MORE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. MAY NEED A FURTHER UPDATE
TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TRANSLATES TO THE NORTHEAST. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  60  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  70  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  60  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  70  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  50  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  40  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 011254
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE
DAY RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
INCREASING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO
10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  20  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 011254
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIFTING DURING THE
DAY RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE AND UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
INCREASING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
IN A WIDE BAND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 7-12 KNOTS TODAY...LOWERING TO 4-8 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AGAIN AROUND MID MORNING THURSDAY TO
10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMER LIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SE FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY E WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  20  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 011212
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  88  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  87  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  86  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 011212
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
712 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE AREA...
AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE IN THE INITIAL HOURS OF THE TAFS.
THEREAFTER CONTINUED INCREASED GULF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
KEEP POPPING UP ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE BEGINS DEPARTING THE REGION.
THEREAFTER THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUE LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.

MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  88  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  87  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  86  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMERLIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SEWRD FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EWRD WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  20  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS VERY TELLING THIS MORNING AS MAJOR CHANGES
IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ARE ONGOING WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
NOW EAST OF THE REGION AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF DIGGING
INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE ERN SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. MAJOR WEATHER
CHANGES FOR US ARE STILL ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS AWAY WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS OF SUMMERLIKE HEAT TO BEGIN OCTOBER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT...WHICH LOOKS TO BE OUR FIRST OF THE
FALL SEASON TO BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION.

THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH JUST SOME SUBTLE
INCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR SHORT WAVE IN CONCERT WITH THE
FRONT AS IT ENTERS OUR REGION MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL HELP TO INCREASE LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT SEWRD FROM
THE I-30 CORRIDOR LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBILITIES AS WELL. TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AS THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT QUICKLY EWRD WITH THE ADVANCING SHORT WAVE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF NICELY
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO EARLIER
IN THE WEEK. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SE OK AND MUCH OF SW AR WHILE READINGS FARTHER SOUTH WILL
RUN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN E TX AND N LA. GRADUAL MODERATION TO
OCCUR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY FALL.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  73  92  66  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
MLU  89  71  91  70  82 /  30  20  30  60  20
DEQ  88  71  88  58  78 /  20  10  60  70  10
TXK  90  71  90  63  78 /  20  10  40  70  10
ELD  89  70  90  65  79 /  30  10  30  70  10
TYR  91  74  91  62  81 /  20  10  40  60  10
GGG  91  72  92  63  81 /  20  10  30  70  10
LFK  91  74  93  67  83 /  20  20  30  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 010937
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.


&&

.MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  88  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  87  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  86  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010937
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
437 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING CREATING A SOUTH FLOW THAT IS DRAWING IN HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION. WHILE THIS OCCURS A SHORT WAVE OVER TX IS DRAWING
CLOSER WITH SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN TOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL TSRA ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. WITH THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE AND LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR TODAY AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FARTHER INLAND
AND BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE SHIFT EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS, HOWEVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCE WILL MOVE IN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND TRAVERSES THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY FROM CENLA THROUGH THE EAST TX LAKES AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ECMWF LOWERING TEMPS TO AROUND 50 TO THE 40S NORTH OF I-10
SUNDAY MORNING, SO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED ADJUSTING
DOWNWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MOISTEN WITH A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY TUE.


&&

.MARINE...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS A LIGHT TO MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THU, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A
STRONG NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  75  87  73  85 /  50  20  50  70  30
KBPT  88  77  88  73  85 /  50  20  40  70  30
KAEX  87  72  88  70  84 /  50  20  40  70  20
KLFT  86  75  87  73  86 /  50  30  50  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 010854
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  40  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  50  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  30  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  50  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  20  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18




000
FXUS64 KLIX 010854
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
354 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY QUIET DAY YESTERDAY A FEW SHRA BROKE
OUT BUT OVERALL IT WAS DRY. THINGS HAVE REMAINED QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY 7Z.

RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN TODAY AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE
MAY BE SOME DECENT RAIN IN SPOTS TODAY...MOSTLY WEST OF THE 55
CORRIDOR. MOISTURE IS ALREADY SLOWLY INCREASING AND THERE WILL BE A
BELT OF LL MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA
TODAY. THIS BELT WILL PROVIDE SOME LL CONVERGENCE AND IS ALREADY
EVIDENT TO OUR SW AS SHRA ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE GULF JUST
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. AS THIS AREA MOVES OVER OUR CWA A WEAK
IMPULSE WILL ALSO APPROACH THE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BIG BEND REGION OF TX. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE BTR METRO.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING FOR THU AND FRI. THE L/W TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST. SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE
LIFT IN PLACE ON THU. COMBINE THAT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND BROAD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WE WILL LIKELY SEE SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA
AND TSRA THU. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF SOME THU EVNG BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THINGS WILL BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP AS OUR COLD FRONT
FRONT APPROACHES.

OUR L/W TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THU DRIVING OUR
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AMPLE FORCING AND COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE
DEVELOPING AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BE ON ITS HEELS. STILL NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED
WITH THE STRONG/SVR POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH AND THE MID LVL FLOW IS A TAD BETTER WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 40
KTS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY APPROACHES 20KTS.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS ALSO LACKING WITH WINDS TRYING TO GO
UNIDIRECTIONAL BEFORE 18Z. MID LVL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
SHALLOW AT OR BELOW 6 C/KM AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. AGAIN
CANT RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT
IMPRESSED WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOCATIONS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY STRONG STORMS IS ALONG AND NW
OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO FRANKLINTON. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY PLEASANT
AUTUMN WEEKEND IN STORE. MDLS CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH
THE ECMWF STILL THE COLDEST. AGAIN WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT
WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI AND THE MDLS HAVE
COME IN A LITTLE STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS. THIS CAA WILL
OVERCOME ANY MIXING FROM WINDS AND SHOULD COOL THINGS OFF
IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER
THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN
MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE MID MAY. AS FOR HIGHS ON
SAT...H925 TEMPS OF 15C WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 70S!!! COMBINE THAT WITH RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY AND RATHER DECENT MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

NOW LOOKING AT SAT NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR 4
DAYS NOW. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THIS AND HAVE DROPPED LOWS
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES IN THE FCST. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH
AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S IN SWRN MS AND SOME LOCATIONS OF SELA
ALONG THE 10/12 CORRIDOR (45 TO BE EXACT IN MCB AND ASD). STILL NOT
GOING TO GO THAT LOW BUT WILL SHOW UPPER 40S AND RIGHT AT 50 FOR
SOME AREAS. ECMWF GUI ACTUALLY SHOWS THE COLDEST READING OF 42 AT
PQL AND THIS WOULD BE THANKS TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE IN THE PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASIN.

TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE SUN BUT WE WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
FOR HIGHS SUN AND LOWS MON MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK REINFORCING FRONT
LOOKS TO TRY TO APPROACH THE REGION MID WEEK. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH 13-14Z AT ALL TAF SITES...A FEW
POINTS...MCB...ASD...BXA AND HDC MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
VSBY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 12Z. MOISTURE SURGE TODAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 STATEMENT
FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONVERT TO TEMPO BTR...MCB AND BTR. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. 1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYERS WILL HOVER AROUND
3045M BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW LAYERS TO DROP TO 2990M BY SATURDAY 12Z AND NOW
GFS HOLDS THE THIS LAYER THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
EURO. GFS HAS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE EURO HAS THE HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS OF 23 TO 25 KNOTS WILL MIXED DOWN 100 PERCENT TO SEA SURFACE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  72  85  71 /  40  40  60  60
BTR  87  72  86  73 /  50  40  60  60
ASD  86  73  86  73 /  30  30  60  50
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  50  40  60  50
GPT  85  74  84  74 /  20  30  50  50
PQL  86  70  85  73 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18





000
FXUS64 KLIX 010503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 13-14Z. MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO HAVE LOWERED VSBYS IS KHUM...HOWEVER A COUPLE OTHER
TAF AIRPORTS COULD LOWER TO MVFR. MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
HAVE ADDED PROB30 STATEMENT FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT DESCENDING FROM 525MB
THIS MORNING DOWN TO 600 MB THIS EVENING. THERE IS A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE AT 600MB AS THE AIR WARMS WHERE DRYER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
THIS DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 800MB. BELOW 800MB...A SHALLOW REGION OF EASTERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 600MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED...BUT COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 010503
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1203 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH 13-14Z. MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO HAVE LOWERED VSBYS IS KHUM...HOWEVER A COUPLE OTHER
TAF AIRPORTS COULD LOWER TO MVFR. MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.
HAVE ADDED PROB30 STATEMENT FOR TSRA DURING THE LATER MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT DESCENDING FROM 525MB
THIS MORNING DOWN TO 600 MB THIS EVENING. THERE IS A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE AT 600MB AS THE AIR WARMS WHERE DRYER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
THIS DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 800MB. BELOW 800MB...A SHALLOW REGION OF EASTERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 600MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED...BUT COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES 01/18Z-02/00Z. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS AFTER 02/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KSHV 010458
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES 01/18Z-02/00Z. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY...
DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS AFTER 02/00Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED...BUT
CONTINUE TO POP UP HERE AND THERE...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.
NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 010246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED...BUT
CONTINUE TO POP UP HERE AND THERE...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE GOING.
NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.  /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 010129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TNITE AS A SHORT WAVE
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY HEADS EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AROUND GALVESTON BAY IN RESPONSE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A TAD DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TNITE AS A SHORT WAVE
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY HEADS EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AROUND GALVESTON BAY IN RESPONSE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A TAD DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TNITE AS A SHORT WAVE
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY HEADS EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AROUND GALVESTON BAY IN RESPONSE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A TAD DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010129
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TNITE AS A SHORT WAVE
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY HEADS EAST. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AROUND GALVESTON BAY IN RESPONSE. TWEAKED TEMPS UP A TAD DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 010117
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
817 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT RULES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BIT OF BR TWRDS
SUNRISE BUT SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 010117
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
817 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT RULES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BIT OF BR TWRDS
SUNRISE BUT SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  85  75  87  73 /  30  40  20  40  60
KBPT  75  86  76  85  72 /  30  30  20  40  60
KAEX  71  87  72  87  70 /  20  50  20  40  60
KLFT  76  85  74  86  73 /  30  50  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT DESCENDING FROM 525MB
THIS MORNING DOWN TO 600 MB THIS EVENING. THERE IS A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE AT 600MB AS THE AIR WARMS WHERE DRYER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
THIS DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 800MB. BELOW 800MB...A SHALLOW REGION OF EASTERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 600MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED...BUT COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 010053
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
753 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE DRY LAYER ALOFT DESCENDING FROM 525MB
THIS MORNING DOWN TO 600 MB THIS EVENING. THERE IS A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE AT 600MB AS THE AIR WARMS WHERE DRYER AIR HAS ADVECTED IN.
THIS DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN ON THE BACK OF DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE 800MB. BELOW 800MB...A SHALLOW REGION OF EASTERLY FLOW
IS IN PLACE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 600MB HAS ALLOWED FOR A CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED...BUT COVERAGE WAS VERY LIMITED DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35

AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 302327
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FROM 01/10Z-01/14Z...IMPROVING TO VFR. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS
ACROSS MLU/ELD TERMINAL SITES AFTER 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/05/05







000
FXUS64 KLIX 302131
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 302131
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
431 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A COLD FRONT INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR
FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER PLAQUEMINES PARISH AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S AT MID AFTERNOON WITH
DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S AT BOOTHVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION TO DIE OFF BEFORE SUNSET AND WILL
NOT CARRY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS
TOMORROW...ONSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. THIS
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FORECAST TRENDING AWAY FROM
SLOWER NAM SOLUTION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE SOME LIKELY POPS ARE
INDICATED. ANTICIPATE THAT AS TIMING DIFFERENCES DIMINISH...POPS
WILL PROBABLY GET RAISED IN ONE OF THOSE TWO PERIODS IN LATER
FORECASTS.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY
AS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE FROM THE USUAL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HAVE TRENDED A BIT COOLER THAN MAV HIGHS...CLOSER TO
ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY...AND CONSIDERABLY
LESS HUMID ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES WELL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS FRONT...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

DEFINITE COOLING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THICKNESSES AND H925
TEMPERATURES DICTATING ABOUT A 10 DEGREE COOLOFF ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AND POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 15-20 DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO SUNDAY AT SOME NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS
NORMALLY SUBJECT TO DRAINAGE LIKE SLIDELL AND PASCAGOULA. A BRIEF
MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE AIRMASS MONDAY BEFORE THE REINFORCING
FRONT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. 35


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. HAVE
ADDED FOG IN TO SOME OF THE TAFS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
13/MH

&&

.MARINE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST. THINGS STILL LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY CALM. EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  60
BTR  70  88  72  89 /  10  40  30  50
ASD  69  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  60
MSY  73  87  74  88 /  10  30  30  50
GPT  70  86  73  85 /  10  20  20  50
PQL  68  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 302017
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROF OVER THE NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CONUS CLEARLY
NOTED IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS AFTN. UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS TREK EWD...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE INTO
THURSDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT ALREADY SETTING UP OVER OUR REGION...AND
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
EVEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR/SFC FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGE HAIL.
GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS DO SHOW SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL RESULT IS THE SAME. MOST AREAS SHOULD
RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING EXCESSIVE.

RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT SLING-
SHOTS EWD AND A 1025 SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE REGION IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED COOL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
WEEKEND AFTER AN EXTENDED RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS.

NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROF. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHWRS...BUT TOO
UNCERTAIN TO MENTION POPS ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  89  73  89  66 /  20  20  10  30  70
MLU  70  89  71  88  68 /  20  30  20  30  50
DEQ  66  85  69  84  60 /  20  20  10  60  60
TXK  69  87  71  85  63 /  20  20  10  40  70
ELD  68  86  69  86  63 /  20  30  10  30  70
TYR  71  90  74  87  63 /  20  20  10  40  50
GGG  70  88  72  89  64 /  20  20  10  30  60
LFK  72  90  75  91  69 /  20  20  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KLCH 302008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  86  75  87  73 /  20  30  20  40  60
KBPT  74  84  76  85  72 /  20  30  20  40  60
KAEX  70  87  72  87  70 /  10  30  20  40  60
KLFT  72  86  74  86  73 /  20  40  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 302008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  86  75  87  73 /  20  30  20  40  60
KBPT  74  84  76  85  72 /  20  30  20  40  60
KAEX  70  87  72  87  70 /  10  30  20  40  60
KLFT  72  86  74  86  73 /  20  40  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 302008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  86  75  87  73 /  20  30  20  40  60
KBPT  74  84  76  85  72 /  20  30  20  40  60
KAEX  70  87  72  87  70 /  10  30  20  40  60
KLFT  72  86  74  86  73 /  20  40  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 302008
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
308 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ISO SHRA DIMINISHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH A FEW SHRA BEGINNING TO POP UP
OVER SE TX. FOR NOW...20% STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
A TASTE OF LATE SUMMER HAS RETURNED...WITH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S. MORNING
LOWS WED EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BECOME MORE SW...INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THU. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS SE TX/C AND S LA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WED...AND AGAIN THU. TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD.

BY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI MORNING...CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OVER-
RUNNING MOISTURE POST FROPA LINGERING INTO FRI AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NW TO SE AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWING A DEEP LAYER
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST
TEMPS SO FAR THIS EARLY FALL SEASON. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR SAT & SUN MORNINGS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

BY MON & TUE...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN WITH A PREDOMINATELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
SE TO S WINDS 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THRU EARLY THU WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THU 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU FRI
MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR 20 KTS EXPECTED BY FRI NIGHT/SAT
MORNING.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  86  75  87  73 /  20  30  20  40  60
KBPT  74  84  76  85  72 /  20  30  20  40  60
KAEX  70  87  72  87  70 /  10  30  20  40  60
KLFT  72  86  74  86  73 /  20  40  20  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS OVER SOUTHERN LA
INDICATES SOME DECENT FAIR WX CU FIELDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
THESE CLD DECKS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL THEN DISSIPATE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER TONIGHT FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS TO FORM AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. HOWEVER THE LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS. ANY OF THESE THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED.
THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS OVER SOUTHERN LA
INDICATES SOME DECENT FAIR WX CU FIELDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
THESE CLD DECKS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL THEN DISSIPATE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER TONIGHT FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS TO FORM AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. HOWEVER THE LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS. ANY OF THESE THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED.
THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS OVER SOUTHERN LA
INDICATES SOME DECENT FAIR WX CU FIELDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
THESE CLD DECKS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL THEN DISSIPATE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER TONIGHT FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS TO FORM AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. HOWEVER THE LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS. ANY OF THESE THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED.
THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KLIX 301759 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...VSBL SATL IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS OVER SOUTHERN LA
INDICATES SOME DECENT FAIR WX CU FIELDS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION.
THESE CLD DECKS WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL THEN DISSIPATE SLOWLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
LATER TONIGHT FAIRLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S TO ALLOW SOME AREAS OF FOG/LOW CEILINGS TO FORM AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CURRENT TAF SET. HOWEVER THE LATE NIGHT FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR
LEVELS. ANY OF THESE THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED.
THE CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BEGINNING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU FIELD TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS NOTED ON EARLIER UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF
PREVAILING GROUPS. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK E
TO SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO SHRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ISO SHRA AND PERHEAPS A TSRA EXPECTED
INLAND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SE. INHERITED
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH 20% CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  20  40
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  20  20  40  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301732
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BEGINNING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL ALLOW BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU FIELD TO FORM...ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR LEVELS. SOME DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS NOTED ON EARLIER UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CHECK AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT BEST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF
PREVAILING GROUPS. WITH STABLE CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK E
TO SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO SHRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ISO SHRA AND PERHEAPS A TSRA EXPECTED
INLAND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SE. INHERITED
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH 20% CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  20  40
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  20  20  40  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 301638
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTOCUMULUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...
BEING REPLACED QUICKLY BY LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH
HEIGHTS VARYING BETWEEN 25HDFT-5KFT. REALLY STARTING TO SEE
THIS CLOUD COVER GROW OUT WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS
ON THE HEELS OF RETURNING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODIC CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT BUT
WILL PREVAIL SCT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT...MODEL CROSS SECTION SUPPORT A RETURN OF AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS
AT LEAST AT THE LFK TERMINAL IN THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR LOWER VSBYS AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY AT THE LFK TERMINAL
WHERE VSBY COULD FALL BELOW ONE MILE. 3-5SM VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z WED.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WED MORNING SHOULD RISE OR GIVE WAY TO SCT SKY
CONDITIONS IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 301638
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTOCUMULUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...
BEING REPLACED QUICKLY BY LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH
HEIGHTS VARYING BETWEEN 25HDFT-5KFT. REALLY STARTING TO SEE
THIS CLOUD COVER GROW OUT WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS
ON THE HEELS OF RETURNING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODIC CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT BUT
WILL PREVAIL SCT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT...MODEL CROSS SECTION SUPPORT A RETURN OF AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS
AT LEAST AT THE LFK TERMINAL IN THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR LOWER VSBYS AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY AT THE LFK TERMINAL
WHERE VSBY COULD FALL BELOW ONE MILE. 3-5SM VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z WED.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WED MORNING SHOULD RISE OR GIVE WAY TO SCT SKY
CONDITIONS IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301546
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301546
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301546
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 301546
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 301545
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING WEAK E
TO SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO SHRA OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. ISO SHRA AND PERHEAPS A TSRA EXPECTED
INLAND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING UP IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SE. INHERITED
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THIS...WITH 20% CHANCE OF PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  40
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  20  40
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  20  20  40  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 301244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 301244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 301134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  30
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  20
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  10  30
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 301134
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
634 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE CAUSING MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER AS THE SUN
RISES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND KLFT AND KARA AND THIN PATCHY
FOG MAY BE A CONCERN AGAIN WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
BECOME SE DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74  86 /  20  20  30  20  30
KBPT  87  75  86  76  86 /  20  20  30  20  20
KAEX  88  70  88  72  86 /  20  10  30  10  30
KLFT  88  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  30  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 301017
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY AND
SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT FOG NOTED ON AREA OBS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS/TRENDS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...WHICH WAS ISOLATED AT BEST YESTERDAY...SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS TODAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER TX GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE RESULTANT RETURNING
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROF WILL YIELD BETTER CHANCES WED AND THU. THIS
ACTIVITY...PERHAPS INITIALLY AS NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS...WILL OTHERWISE BE
PRIMARILY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE DRIVEN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

CDFNT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...WHICH REPRESENTS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OF THE FCST. RISK OF
SEVERE PER DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS MINIMAL...WITH BETTER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH TWD THE ARKLATEX AND PTS NORTH. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH SAT/SAT NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE COOLEST
PERIOD...AS HIGHS LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AND LOWS SAT NIGHT
FALL INTO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
GFS POINTING TOWARD RETURNING RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
US DRY. CONTINUED TO LEAN TWD THE LATTER FOR THIS FCST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  87  74  86  74 /  20  20  30  20
KBPT  87  75  86  76 /  20  20  30  20
KAEX  88  70  88  72 /  20  10  30  10
KLFT  88  73  86  74 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 300948
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLIX 300903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18




000
FXUS64 KLIX 300903
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...MDLS REALLY STRUGGLED WITH THE DEPTH AND SURGE OF DRY
AIR THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. 3-4 DAYS AGO THEY SUGGESTED WE WOULD
DRY OUT FOR MON AND TUE BUT THEN SAT NIGHT THEY BEGAN TO SUGGEST THE
BNDRY WOULD HOLD FURTHER NORTH AND MOISTURE WOULD NOT LEAVE THE
REGION ALONG WITH SCT SHRA MON AND TODAY. THIS WAS EVEN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE A S/W RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE AND A BIG NEGATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES. WELL WE SHOULD HAVE
STUCK WITH OUR GUNS YESTERDAY AND KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WILL DO SO
TODAY.

S/W RIDGING IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE L/W TROUGH SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. LAST NIGHT PWS JUST
OFF TO THE NORTH WERE NEAR 1.5 WHILE OUR BNDRY DRIFTED WELL INTO THE
GULF. COMBINE ALL THAT WITH WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND IT HELPED KEEP
THINGS QUIET YESTERDAY. AS FOR TODAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF SELA AND SRN MS ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER AND ACTUALLY FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY. ENJOY IT AS THIS VERY
WELL COULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.

AS WE MOVE INTO TUE NIGHT AND MORE SO WED AND THU...MOISTURE WILL BE
BACK ON THE RISE AND OUR S/W RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. BY WED PWS SHOULD BE BACK AROUND 2 INCH WITH DEVELOPING WSW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND A WEAK IMPULSE INTO THE REGION.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT CONVECTION WED.

THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SHARPEN AND CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
WITH GREATER BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE. BROAD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE IN PLACE AND THIS ALONG WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
LEAD TO SCT TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THU WITH CONVECTION
POSSIBLY INCREASING LATE THU/THU NIGHT AS OUR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...NOTHING HAS REALLY CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FCST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF OUR FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT. ONLY VERY MINOR
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT. THEY ALL
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COOLER WITH THE ECMWF THE COLDEST. AGAIN
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS BUT WILL GIVE A LITTLE MORE WEIGHT TO
THE ECMWF GIVEN THE TRENDS.

FRI WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION IN THE FCST. A
STRONG MID LVL JET DROPPING OUT OF WRN CANADA WILL SHARPEN THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND CAUSE IT TO DIG AS IT MOVES INTO THE
ERN CONUS FRI NIGHT WITH A CLOSED LOW LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER THE GRT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRI
AND WITH THE STRONG PUSH THIS FRONT COULD REACH THE COAST BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN FRI. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD AND WITH
THE FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHRA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT DRY COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN FRI AFTN. AS FOR STRONG
SVR POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT MID
LVL FLOW WILL NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION MID LVL LAPSE
RATES ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND VT WILL ONLY BE AROUND 24-25C. CANT
RULE OUT A ROGUE STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO BUT OVERALL NOT IMPRESSED
WITH THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND LOOK FOR OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF AUTUMN. STRONG COLD AIR ADV OVERNIGHT FRI WILL OVERCOME ANY
MIXING FROM WINDS AND WILL COOL THINGS OFF IMPRESSIVELY WITH LOWS
SAT MORNING LIKELY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SWRN MS TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. IF THE FRONT IS ANY FASTER THEN LOWS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER. THAT SAID LOOK FOR SUN MORNING TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING SINCE MID MAY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
40S IF NOT THE 30S ACROSS THE REGION AND SAT NIGHT OPTIMAL RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS COULD SET UP. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
B/T THE MDLS WITH RESPECT TO THE SFC HIGH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SIT RIGHT OVER THE REGION THAT NIGHT PROVIDING RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR AND LL TEMPS WILL NOT BE WARMING YET AND ALL
OF THIS WOULD BE GREAT FOR RAD COOLING POTENTIAL. IF THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST A TAD FASTER THAN WE MAY START TO SEE RETURN FLOW IN THE
LL WHICH COULD HURT LOWS BUT THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE
GROUND MOISTURE. IF WE OVERACHIEVE WITH THE RAINFALL ON FRI THEN
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HURT THE COOLING POTENTIAL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE TREND FROM ALL OF THE MLDS HAS BEEN TO GO A
LITTLE COOLER WITH EACH MDL RUN AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THIS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND ACTUALLY SHOWS MID 40S
IN SWRN MS. NOT GOING TO BITE ON THAT QUITE YET BUT WILL SHOW 50 FOR
MCB AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...

MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT A
HUM...MCB...BTR...ASD AND HDC...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF OR
TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HUM AND MCB. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS THAN MONDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z THIS
MORNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT HUM...NEW...MSY AND BTR...VERY ISOLATED SO WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. 18

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL...OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000 TO 700MB THICKNESS LAYER DECREASE ABOUT 60M TO 70M BEHIND THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO GFS AND EURO. GFS SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY AND SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE AREA. EURO HOLD COLD AIR ADVECTION LONGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATER PACKAGES WILL EXAMINE THE DURATION OF OFF SHORE WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  30  30
BTR  88  71  87  73 /  10  10  40  30
ASD  86  69  86  72 /  10  10  20  20
MSY  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  40  30
GPT  85  70  85  73 /  10  20  20  20
PQL  85  66  85  70 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 18





000
FXUS64 KLIX 300454
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY...MOSTLY LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT A FEW TAF AIRPORTS...MAINLY BETWEEN 09-13Z. BRIEF
OR TEMPO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE FOG PRONE
AIRPORTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
FROM 14Z TUESDAY TO 06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY
WOULD ONLY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS ON ANY TAF AIRPORT...SO HAVE NOT
ADDED MENTION AT THIS TIME. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS CONTINUED DRYING OF THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE
AS COMPARED TO THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES HAVE DECREASED BY NEAR 0.20 INCHES TODAY AND DEEP LAYER
NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A REGION
OF MUCH DRIER AIR FROM AROUND 450MB AND UP...WITH CAPPING ALOFT
NOTED WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. BELOW THIS
CAP...A REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE TODAY. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS NOTED AT 1600 J/KG...THE OVERALL LAPSE
RATES WERE VERY WEAK AND CAPE WAS ACTUALLY QUITE SKINNY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. 32

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 100MB KEPT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ALL MORNING AND HAS REALLY ONLY STARTED BREAKING UP SINCE
18Z. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED...ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED...AND ARE MOVING WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST. MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BASED ON
CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...MET GUIDANCE POPS ARE
OVERDONE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW SHOW THE AIRMASS IS GOING TO
BE A BIT DRIER THAN TODAY. COMBINED WITH NO ORGANIZED
FORCING...MET GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE. WILL
NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE MAV GUIDANCE...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL USE
MAV POPS AS A BASELINE. STRONG TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF IT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...BUT STAY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES. 35

LONG TERM...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOLUTIONS WOULD INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP FROM ABOUT 1.8
INCHES AT 18Z FRIDAY TO ABOUT 0.5 INCHES 12 HOURS LATER. EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY...BUT BEHIND THE
FRONT...MEX DATA APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
H925 TEMPERATURES DROP BY 6-8C BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH PAST 80 FOR THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH NORTHSHORE LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO THE
50S...WITH SOME MODERATION BEYOND THAT. 35

AVIATION...

BKN MVFR CEILINGS AT EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT NEAR AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW OVERALL LOWERING OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN
LOWER PART OF ATMOSPHERE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND MOS GUIDANCE
FOLLOWS TREND WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE. 18Z TAFS REFLECT VFR
GUIDANCE TRENDS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 21

MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST...BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE...
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN A DEPARTING
HIGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PLAINS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY REQUIRE AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  88  70  88 /  20  10  20  30
BTR  70  89  71  90 /  20  20  20  30
ASD  69  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  20
MSY  74  87  74  87 /  20  20  20  30
GPT  70  86  71  85 /  30  20  20  20
PQL  67  87  68  85 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 300448
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 30/06Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 KFT. EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OR HAZE AROUND SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BKN CU FIELD AFTER 15Z...
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RESENT ZONES TO REMOVE ISOLD EARLY EVE SHOWERS FOR EAST TX LAKES./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LEFT IN ISOLD POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EAST TX LAKES UNTIL
10 PM...GIVEN WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR. ALSO UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST TX LAKES
AND NORTHCENTRAL LA...WHERE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.
EXPECT MOST LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT PER CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT TO REISSUE ZONES TO REMOVE
PRECIP AT 10 PM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROF SPINNING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX AND N LA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. FARTHER NORTH...CLOUD COVER IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU AS DEW POINTS ARE SOME 10 DEGREES
LOWER COMPARED TO POINTS SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF NICELY INTO
60S FOR MOST AREAS.

A FEW MORE DAYS OF WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NEWRD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT.
IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OUR REGION BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BNDRY. IT WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  91  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
MLU  70  91  69  90  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEQ  62  87  65  87  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
TXK  66  87  67  88  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  63  88  66  89  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
TYR  68  89  71  90  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
GGG  67  90  70  91  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
LFK  72  92  71  91  74 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 300448
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 30/06Z TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PATCHY CIGS BETWEEN 7 AND 9 KFT. EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG OR HAZE AROUND SUNRISE.
FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT A SCATTERED TO BKN CU FIELD AFTER 15Z...
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RESENT ZONES TO REMOVE ISOLD EARLY EVE SHOWERS FOR EAST TX LAKES./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LEFT IN ISOLD POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EAST TX LAKES UNTIL
10 PM...GIVEN WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR. ALSO UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST
A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST TX LAKES
AND NORTHCENTRAL LA...WHERE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.
EXPECT MOST LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT PER CURRENT TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT TO REISSUE ZONES TO REMOVE
PRECIP AT 10 PM./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WITH A DEEP TROF SPINNING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX AND N LA...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. FARTHER NORTH...CLOUD COVER IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU AS DEW POINTS ARE SOME 10 DEGREES
LOWER COMPARED TO POINTS SOUTH. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF NICELY INTO
60S FOR MOST AREAS.

A FEW MORE DAYS OF WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK BUT CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WEST WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NEWRD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT.
IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OUR REGION BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BNDRY. IT WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  91  71  91  72 /  10  10  10  20  10
MLU  70  91  69  90  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEQ  62  87  65  87  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
TXK  66  87  67  88  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  63  88  66  89  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
TYR  68  89  71  90  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
GGG  67  90  70  91  73 /  10  20  10  20  10
LFK  72  92  71  91  74 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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