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000
FXUS64 KSHV 240508
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1208 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 24/06Z TAFS...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST WITH STRONG MOISTURE SURGE IN FULL EFFECT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWRD BY MID MORNING AND
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT OUR E TX TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD EXIT THE REGION OVER OUR FAR ERN
AREAS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 12-18 KTS AFTER 24/15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES FOR PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER FOR
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
THE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON
THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  58  84  62 /  10  40  20  10  10
MLU  56  83  59  84  60 /  10  40  30  10  10
DEQ  58  77  45  81  54 /  10  40  10  10  10
TXK  62  79  52  82  59 /  10  40  10  10  10
ELD  56  83  52  82  56 /  10  40  30  10  10
TYR  64  80  56  84  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
GGG  63  81  54  85  62 /  10  30  10  10  10
LFK  63  84  62  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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000
FXUS64 KLCH 240506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF WHILE VEIL OF CIRRUS MOVES IN
FM THE WEST. OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW P6SM VISBYS. ADJUSTED
VISBY FCST FOR TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ACRS SE TX WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BPT AND LCH.
FURTHER EAST...FOG STILL COULD BE AN ISSUE DUE TO LIGHTER WIND
FIELD/LESS CLOUD COVER AND LATEST HRRR VISBY PROGS ALSO REFLECT
THIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BPT...PREVAILING
VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT LCH WITH PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT ERN SITES.
FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY 14Z-15Z...THEN BECOMING VFR
BY 18Z WITH SLY WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF WHILE VEIL OF CIRRUS MOVES IN
FM THE WEST. OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW P6SM VISBYS. ADJUSTED
VISBY FCST FOR TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ACRS SE TX WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BPT AND LCH.
FURTHER EAST...FOG STILL COULD BE AN ISSUE DUE TO LIGHTER WIND
FIELD/LESS CLOUD COVER AND LATEST HRRR VISBY PROGS ALSO REFLECT
THIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BPT...PREVAILING
VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT LCH WITH PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT ERN SITES.
FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY 14Z-15Z...THEN BECOMING VFR
BY 18Z WITH SLY WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF WHILE VEIL OF CIRRUS MOVES IN
FM THE WEST. OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW P6SM VISBYS. ADJUSTED
VISBY FCST FOR TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ACRS SE TX WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BPT AND LCH.
FURTHER EAST...FOG STILL COULD BE AN ISSUE DUE TO LIGHTER WIND
FIELD/LESS CLOUD COVER AND LATEST HRRR VISBY PROGS ALSO REFLECT
THIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BPT...PREVAILING
VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT LCH WITH PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT ERN SITES.
FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY 14Z-15Z...THEN BECOMING VFR
BY 18Z WITH SLY WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 240506
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
24/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE GULF WHILE VEIL OF CIRRUS MOVES IN
FM THE WEST. OBS SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW P6SM VISBYS. ADJUSTED
VISBY FCST FOR TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET AND INCREASING
CLOUDS ACRS SE TX WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BPT AND LCH.
FURTHER EAST...FOG STILL COULD BE AN ISSUE DUE TO LIGHTER WIND
FIELD/LESS CLOUD COVER AND LATEST HRRR VISBY PROGS ALSO REFLECT
THIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BPT...PREVAILING
VFR/TEMPO MVFR AT LCH WITH PREVAILING MVFR/TEMPO IFR AT ERN SITES.
FOG EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR CIGS BY 14Z-15Z...THEN BECOMING VFR
BY 18Z WITH SLY WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE
AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WITH LOW CIGS RETURNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.  23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 240421
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  81  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  82  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  78  65  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 240258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
958 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES FOR PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER FOR
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
THE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON
THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT LATER THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS FILL
IN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWRD BY MID
MORNING AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT OUR E TX TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO MOVE
IN SO MLU/ELD MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF REDUCED VSBYS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS AFTER 24/15Z
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RETURNING CU FIELD ON VIS SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS A SIGN THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL UNDERWAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE AWAIT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE THIS WAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY EVENING...WILL EVEN TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT INTO AR. WE SHOULD STAY CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT FRONTAL FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE CAP BEING BROKEN WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40KTS AND GIVEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8.0 DEG, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THE LATER HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA THU
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. WE`RE BACK IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH ITSELF AND
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NECESSITY OF
BUMPING POPS UPWARDS TO LIKELY CATEGORY SUNDAY IN OUR EXTREME NW
ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX/OK BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ONGOING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAYS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT KIND OF EASTWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN A MUCH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE COMPARED TO OUR RISK
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THUS...EXPECTING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  58  84  62 /  10  40  20  10  10
MLU  56  83  59  84  60 /  10  40  30  10  10
DEQ  58  77  45  81  54 /  10  40  10  10  10
TXK  62  79  52  82  59 /  10  40  10  10  10
ELD  56  83  52  82  56 /  10  40  30  10  10
TYR  64  80  56  84  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
GGG  63  81  54  85  62 /  10  30  10  10  10
LFK  63  84  62  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 240253
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
953 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY SAW TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE 80S UNDER SUNNY SKIES AFTER THE FOG BURNED OFF THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT THAT WAS TO OUR SOUTH HAS MOVED BACK NORTHWARD AND
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
THIS EVENING.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE FOG ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SOME AREAS
FALLING BELOW ONE MILE TOWARDS SUNRISE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANOTHER FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL
CHANCE AT PRECIP AND TEMPS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION...BUT
DRIER AIR WILL SET IN FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RETURN MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO
EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME-FRAME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT THIS TIME
STRONGER WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING SEEING TEMPS STARING OUT IN THE LOW
50S CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH MID 50S DOWN ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 240057
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
757 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE WAS NOTED BY THE 00Z SOUNDING. A
STRONG 3 DEGREE CAP CONTINUES TO RESIDE AROUND 800MB...MUCH AS
WAS NOTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDING. BENEATH THE CAP...A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IS NOTED...WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OCCURRING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CAP IN PLACE AROUND 7000 FEET...ONLY A
SCATTERED STRATO-CU FIELD WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ABOVE THE CAP...A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINED IN
PLACE...MUCH AS SEEN IN THE 12Z SOUNDING. WINDS HAVE BACKED
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST COMPONENT NOTED FROM
250MB TO THE SURFACE. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  81  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  82  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  78  65  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 240013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
713 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT LATER THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS FILL
IN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWRD BY MID
MORNING AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT OUR E TX TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO MOVE
IN SO MLU/ELD MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF REDUCED VSBYS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS AFTER 24/15Z
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RETURNING CU FIELD ON VIS SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS A SIGN THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL UNDERWAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE AWAIT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE THIS WAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY EVENING...WILL EVEN TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT INTO AR. WE SHOULD STAY CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT FRONTAL FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE CAP BEING BROKEN WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40KTS AND GIVEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8.0 DEG, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THE LATER HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA THU
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. WE`RE BACK IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH ITSELF AND
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NECESSITY OF
BUMPING POPS UPWARDS TO LIKELY CATEGORY SUNDAY IN OUR EXTREME NW
ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX/OK BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ONGOING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAYS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT KIND OF EASTWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN A MUCH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE COMPARED TO OUR RISK
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THUS...EXPECTING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  58  84  62 /  10  40  20  10  10
MLU  56  83  59  84  60 /  10  40  30  10  10
DEQ  58  77  45  81  54 /  10  40  10  10  10
TXK  62  79  52  82  59 /  10  40  10  10  10
ELD  56  83  52  82  56 /  10  40  30  10  10
TYR  63  80  56  84  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
GGG  62  81  54  85  62 /  10  30  10  10  10
LFK  63  84  62  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 232345
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
645 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTN CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. SLY WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN DURING THE EVENING WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. THE ONSET OF FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY AT THE ERN TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW LVL WINDS
STRENGTHENING TO THE WEST RESULTING IN MORE OF A LOW CIG AT KBPT
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST WITH FOG/CIGS LIFTING
THU MORNING AND SLY WINDS STRENGTHENING...BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTN AS THE NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  81  64  82 /   0  10  20  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81 /   0  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...23
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 232121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 232121
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE LOW 80S AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
ON THE LOW SIDE WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE
LOWER 60S. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CU NOTED FROM LOWER ACADIANA WEST
NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS MARKING THE
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORM AS A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE A DAILY CHANCE OF NIGHT-TIME
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY JUST BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG BUT TOO CLOSE OF A CALL AT
THIS TIME. CARRYING PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL
SWING AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW END POPS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FEATURES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MOISTURE/LIFT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO
LIMITED FOR MENTIONABLE POPS FURTHER SOUTH. PASSAGE WILL BRING
NORTHING MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS.

VIGOROUS SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT ADVANCING INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KBPT  64  80  65  81  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
KAEX  60  84  63  83  63 /   0  20  20  10  10
KLFT  64  81  65  82  66 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 232047
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS ARE FINALLY ESTABLISHING LAKE AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD COVER TAHT WILL
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TODAY. A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY AFTER
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON FRIDAY
AS THE LOWER END OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARY GENERATED SHOWERS DUE TO INTERATIONS WITH
LAKE AND SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE APRIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL THEN
SHIFT TO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
RATHER LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
WITH DEEP FETCHED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THES
SCENARIO SHOULD FEATURE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST AREAS...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
SQUALL LINE AND DISCRETE BOWING SEGMENTS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE WEATHER IS INDICATED TO DEPART TUESDAY MORNING BUT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE COLDEST ADVECTION DOES NOT FULLY SWING
THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF ECMWF
VERIFIES...NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL COLD IF THE GFS IS CORRECT.
IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RECORD FOR LOWEST MAX DAILY TEMPERATURE
IF ALL PANS OUT AND TEMPS ONLY REACH MID 60S. RECORD LOWS DURING
THAT PERIOD ARE AROUND 40 AT KBTR AND UPPER 40S IN NEW ORLEANS
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO 5-6SM BR BEFORE DAYBREAK
MAINLY DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND AND RADIATIONAL FOG BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE A TIGHTENING OF THE ONSHORE WIND GRADIENT SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE SEAS TO RESPOND IN KIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS RELAX A BIT ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTH GULF NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             ASSESSING SEVERE WX POTENTIAL FOR MON/TUE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
       VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
      AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
      SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  58  83  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  60  84  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  60  81  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  82  66  82 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  58  78  65  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  57  79  62  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR






000
FXUS64 KSHV 232020
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
320 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RETURNING CU FIELD ON VIS SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS A SIGN THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL UNDERWAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE AWAIT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE THIS WAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY EVENING...WILL EVEN TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT INTO AR. WE SHOULD STAY CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT FRONTAL FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE CAP BEING BROKEN WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40KTS AND GIVEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8.0 DEG, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THE LATER HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA THU
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. WE`RE BACK IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH ITSELF AND
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NECESSITY OF
BUMPING POPS UPWARDS TO LIKELY CATEGORY SUNDAY IN OUR EXTREME NW
ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX/OK BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ONGOING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAYS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT KIND OF EASTWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN A MUCH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE COMPARED TO OUR RISK
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THUS...EXPECTING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR E WITH LIGHT
E WINDS AT KELD/KMLU...BUT RETURN FLOW EVEN GUSTING TO 20KTS AT
KTYR. THESE S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS CYCLE. OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...UP TO FAIR WX CU BASES ATTM.
ALOFT...WE STILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW WELL ABOVE CU. SOME
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS E TX INTO KSHV/KTXK 10-15Z WITH MOISTURE FLUX
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTED SCT TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FROPA...MAINLY 25/00-06Z WITH IFR/MVFR IN THE WAKE.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  58  84  62 /  10  40  20  10  10
MLU  56  83  59  84  60 /  10  40  30  10  10
DEQ  58  77  45  81  54 /  10  40  10  10  10
TXK  62  79  52  82  59 /  10  40  10  10  10
ELD  56  83  52  82  56 /  10  40  30  10  10
TYR  63  80  56  84  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
GGG  62  81  54  85  62 /  10  30  10  10  10
LFK  63  84  62  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231919
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CU PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AMID GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LOOKING
AT LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS/GUIDANCE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO
THE EAST AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ...IT APPEARS
THE LOW CLOUD MODE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STRATUS VERSUS FOG. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME REDUCTION TO VSBYS...BUT THE DENSE AND
PERSISTENT FOG SEEN AT KBPT AND KLCH THIS MORNING IS UNLIKELY.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE BROUGHT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS TO MVFR BY LATE
EVENING...THEN IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR AT KAEX...WITH A TEMPO TO IFR. IMPROVED ALL SITES
A CAT BY MID MORNING...YIELDING MVFR AT THE COASTAL SITES AND VFR
AT KAEX.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64 /   0  20  20  20
KLFT  82  64  80  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231800
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
100 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR E WITH LIGHT
E WINDS AT KELD/KMLU...BUT RETURN FLOW EVEN GUSTING TO 20KTS AT
KTYR. THESE S/SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS CYCLE. OUR CLIMB WINDS
ARE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW...UP TO FAIR WX CU BASES ATTM.
ALOFT...WE STILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW WELL ABOVE CU. SOME
MVFR STRATUS ACROSS E TX INTO KSHV/KTXK 10-15Z WITH MOISTURE FLUX
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECTED SCT TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FROPA...MAINLY 25/00-06Z WITH IFR/MVFR IN THE WAKE. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
REGION BUT MOISTURE POOLING DOWN ACROSS SW LA/SE TX IS DESTINED TO
RETURN NORTH BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
AN EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE AXIS TO OUT EAST AND INCREASING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALBEIT WAY BELOW ANY KIND OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE UPDATE...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 2 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST SO MADE THIS CHANGE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE BALLPARK AS THE RATE OF CLIMB
WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTN. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  83  61  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
MLU  83  59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
DEQ  82  59  79  51  84 /   0  10  30  10  10
TXK  82  62  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  10  10
ELD  81  58  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  20  10
TYR  84  63  82  61  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
GGG  85  62  82  61  85 /   0  10  30  10  10
LFK  86  63  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 231535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231535
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  84  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231530
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1030 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
REGION BUT MOISTURE POOLING DOWN ACROSS SW LA/SE TX IS DESTINED TO
RETURN NORTH BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK
AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
AN EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE AXIS TO OUT EAST AND INCREASING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALBEIT WAY BELOW ANY KIND OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

FOR THE UPDATE...HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE SOME 2 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN FORECAST SO MADE THIS CHANGE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.
MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE BALLPARK AS THE RATE OF CLIMB
WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOW THIS AFTN. ALSO ADJUSTED
HOURLY DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS TO MIMIC CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. SITES AFFECTED BY FOG THIS MORNING WILL SEE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ESELY TO SELY WINDS 5-10 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...AS LL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  83  61  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
MLU  83  59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
DEQ  82  59  79  51  84 /   0  10  30  10  10
TXK  82  62  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  10  10
ELD  81  58  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  20  10
TYR  84  63  82  61  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
GGG  85  62  82  61  85 /   0  10  30  10  10
LFK  86  63  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KLIX 231336 AAA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMINDER THAT WEDNESDAY IS WEEKLY RADIO TEST DAY AROUND 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT HWO ISSUANCE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPC 4-7 DAY OUTLOOK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO ISSUES WITH FLIGHT THIS MORNING. AN OVERLY DRY SOUNDING ABOVE
810 MB WITH JUST SOME MODERATE SATURATION WITH 5C DEPRESSIONS FROM
SURFACE INVERSION TO BASE OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 810 MB. QUITE
STABLE WITH A SHOWALTER OF 6...LIFTED INDEX 0.6. PRECIPITABLE
WATER 0.79 INCHES IS ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS 12
HOURS. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT NE SURFACE TO 5KFT...NW 5-15 KT TO
17KFT...A LAYER OF SW 10 KT TO ABOUT 22KFT...THEN NW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 280/55KT AT 50.2KFT. DOUBLE TROPOPAUSE STRUCTURE
WITH A WARM -58.2C AT 200MB...THEN -71.9C AT 106MB. BALLOON BURST
28 MILES ESE AT AN ALTITUDE OF 32625 M/ 20.27 MILES UP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND ABOUT 6 MILES S OF BUCCANEER STATE PARK ON THE
HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER

MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 231211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
711 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TAF THINKING. DENSE FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY MID-MORNING. SRLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS AGAIN INDICATE A
SHALLOW MOIST LAYER UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 231200 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSHV 231045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
12Z TAF PD. SITES AFFECTED BY FOG THIS MORNING WILL SEE IMPROVED
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ESELY TO SELY WINDS 5-10 KTS
EXPECTED TODAY. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...AS LL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WAS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL WEATHER TO
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WAS REDUCING
VISIBILITIES IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD MIX AWAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TODAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT AND A STRONG
LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. ON THURSDAY... A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
MOISTURE... SO KEEPING THIS A LOW POP EVENT. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...BUT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO...OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE POST FRONTAL WEATHER ON
FRIDAY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS ONE MAY BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
LOOK LESS DUE TO DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  83  61  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
MLU  83  59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
DEQ  82  59  79  51  84 /   0  10  30  10  10
TXK  82  62  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  10  10
ELD  81  58  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  20  10
TYR  84  63  82  61  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
GGG  85  62  82  61  85 /   0  10  30  10  10
LFK  86  63  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230946
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
446 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEEP 994MB LOW OVER MAINE WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO GEORGIA TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
MISSISSIPPI DELTA MOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEWPOINT READINGS
WERE 65 TO 70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT 55 TO 65 NORTH OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
FRONT...HOUMA AIRPORT WAS QUARTER MILE...GALIANO AIRPORT WAS A
QUARTER...PATTERSON WAS HALF. HOWEVER...NET CAMS AROUND HOUMA
INDICATED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL HANDLE FOG WITH
SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED
DRYING IN MID AND UPPER ATM OVER THE GULF COAST DUE TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH AXIS FROM WASHINGTON TO ARIZONA. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THEIR PROGRESSION FROM
WEST TO EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST TO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW SURF WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SATURATION IS LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. WITH THIS
SAID...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY. 18

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL TRACK EAST. WITH THE
AXIS ALREADY NEGATIVELY TILTED AND NORTHERN TRACK EQUATE TO LOW TO
NIL CHANCES OF RAIN AS THE AXIS APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL TAKE A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK ACROSS ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE AXIS WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE AND
POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION. ALBEIT WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT TIMES OVER
THE WEEKEND...INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN PLACE ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT SWEEP THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH SHOW AN EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY THEN
THEY DIVERGE AFTER TUESDAY. GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
TRACK WILL BRING A CLOUDY SKY...BELOW NORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AND A CHANCE OF COLD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH ZONES THE CONUS. ECMWF
KEEPS A CLOSED LOW BUT FARTHER NORTH. WE LEAN TO GFS WITH TEMPS
BUT NOT AS COLD AND JUST CLOUDY AND NO RAIN FOR NOW AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 18

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
08-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ARE CURRENTLY THE LOWEST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NOW
THROUGH MID WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY AND BEYOND THE WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS COULD EXIST AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
STRONG THIS BOUNDARY IS.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  84  61  84  64 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  81  60  81  61 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  79  58  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  79  57  80  63 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230936
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING AS
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING ACROSS SETX AND SWLA. SEVERAL
SITES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE IN
VISIBILITY. EXPECT BY 9AM SUNRISE WILL CAUSE THE FOG TO DISSIPATE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE IN TODAY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT AROUND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE ONSHORE RETURN FLOW. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN
PLACE UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PLAINS TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STALL OUT TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR OUR TEMPS TO STAY
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STRONG AND WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ALONG WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM STILL REMAINS INEXACT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT IN MONDAY AND
PUSHES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEREAS THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
SLOWER AND DOESN`T CLEAR THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER MIN TEMPS TUESDAY
EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  64  82 /   0  20  20  20  10
KLFT  82  64  80  65  80 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

RDEAL






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230926
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
426 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WAS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND AND COOL WEATHER TO
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WAS REDUCING
VISIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD MIX AWAY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TODAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT AND A STRONG
LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST. ON THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND OZARKS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE...
SO KEEPING THIS A LOW POP EVENT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH...BUT WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. SO...OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS...NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THE POST FRONTAL WEATHER ON FRIDAY DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS ONE MAY WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. HOWEVER...
CHANCES LOOK LESS DUE TO DRIER AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM.
EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  83  61  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
MLU  83  59  84  62  85 /   0  10  30  20  10
DEQ  82  59  79  51  84 /   0  10  30  10  10
TXK  82  62  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  10  10
ELD  81  58  81  58  83 /   0  10  40  20  10
TYR  84  63  82  61  84 /   0  10  20  10  10
GGG  85  62  82  61  85 /   0  10  30  10  10
LFK  86  63  84  64  85 /   0  10  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230716
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST SENT OUT TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND SOME AREAS WILL SEE REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

RDEAL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  80  65  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  83  60  82  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10
KLFT  82  64  81  64  81 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230500
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1200 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT SEVERAL AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM
10-13Z. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KHUM WHERE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS HAVE ALREADY STARTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 821 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 750MB. ABOVE THE
INVERSION...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...ONLY A BROKEN
STRATOCU FIELD AND SOME LIGHT MARINE LAYER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
AROUND THE TIME OF OBSERVATION. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  77  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  59  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230459
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD MINUS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE E/SE
WITH TIME AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. SPOTTY CU WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP AS SFC HEATING INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
CIRRUS MOVING BACK IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES OR UPDATES.
DEW POINTS WILL APPROACH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND PARTS
OF EAST TEXAS. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  82  62  82  61 /   0   0  10  30  20
MLU  56  80  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  30  20
DEQ  50  79  59  79  51 /   0   0  10  30  10
TXK  55  80  61  80  58 /   0   0  10  30  10
ELD  51  79  57  81  57 /   0   0  10  30  20
TYR  59  83  63  81  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  58  83  62  81  60 /   0   0  10  30  10
LFK  61  84  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 230303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 230303
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230235
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES OR UPDATES.
DEW POINTS WILL APPROACH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND PARTS
OF EAST TEXAS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE/NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EWRD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEND SUPPORT TO SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SO MVFR
VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MOST TERMINAL SITES. OTHERWISE...NO
CONCERNS WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SPOTTY CU DEVELOPING AS SFC HEATING INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
/19/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING
AREAWIDE AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  82  62  82  61 /   0   0  10  30  20
MLU  56  80  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  30  20
DEQ  50  79  59  79  51 /   0   0  10  30  10
TXK  55  80  61  80  58 /   0   0  10  30  10
ELD  51  79  57  81  57 /   0   0  10  30  20
TYR  59  83  63  81  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  58  83  62  81  60 /   0   0  10  30  10
LFK  61  84  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230121
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
821 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN
PLACE BENEATH AN ELEVATED INVERSION AT 750MB. ABOVE THE
INVERSION...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN A
MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...ONLY A BROKEN
STRATOCU FIELD AND SOME LIGHT MARINE LAYER SHOWERS WERE NOTED
AROUND THE TIME OF OBSERVATION. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  57  81  59 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  79  61  83  61 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  77  59  81  60 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  77  64  77  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  75  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230004
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS TO BECOME VARIABLE/NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EWRD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEND SUPPORT TO SOME PATCHY FOG
FORMATION FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY...SO MVFR
VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT MOST TERMINAL SITES. OTHERWISE...NO
CONCERNS WITH WINDS BECOMING E/SE BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SPOTTY CU DEVELOPING AS SFC HEATING INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING
AREAWIDE AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  82  62  82  61 /   0   0  10  30  20
MLU  56  80  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  30  20
DEQ  50  79  59  79  51 /   0   0  10  30  10
TXK  55  80  61  80  58 /   0   0  10  30  10
ELD  51  79  57  81  57 /   0   0  10  30  20
TYR  59  83  63  81  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  58  83  62  81  60 /   0   0  10  30  10
LFK  61  84  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 222349
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24






000
FXUS64 KLIX 222033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY SPOTTY ALMOST STRATIFORM OR VERY LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE MARINE LAYER INSTABILITY BELOW WARM MID-LAYER. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL WINDOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING SHUTS OFF AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO
THE POINT WHERE RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 4 AM
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE INDICATED THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FEW MODELS DO GRAZE THE SOUTHWEST MS COUNTIES WITH LIGHT RAIN BUT
THIS WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL MORE RESOLUTION IN NEXT MODEL RUNS OR
TWO. TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE PERSISTENT NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STEADY STATE THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER
LARGE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND
DEVELOPS A STRONG SURFACE LOW TO BRING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR
MASS SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA AND MAY INVOLVE SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CAVOK CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z BEFORE RADIATIONAL FOG
INDUCES MVFR CIGS/VSBY BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RATHER QUICKLY TO VFR CAVOK FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS WINDS STEADILY WALK FROM WEAK OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EAST TOMORROW AND SOUTHEAST BY WEDNEDAY NIGHT THEN LIGHT STEADY
STATE ONSHORE FLOW THR0UGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DOES
NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  57  81  59  83 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  61  83  61  84 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  59  81  60  81 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  64  77  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  62  79  58  78 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  59  79  57  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222014
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  81  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81  64 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221907
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
207 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SKIES CLEARING
AREAWIDE AND TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNING AND TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CLIMBING THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  82  62  82  61 /   0   0  10  30  20
MLU  56  80  58  83  62 /   0   0  10  30  20
DEQ  50  79  59  79  51 /   0   0  10  30  10
TXK  55  80  61  80  58 /   0   0  10  30  10
ELD  51  79  57  81  57 /   0   0  10  30  20
TYR  59  83  63  81  58 /   0   0  10  20  10
GGG  58  83  62  81  60 /   0   0  10  30  10
LFK  61  84  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KSHV 221734
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1234 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A 1021 MB HIGH AT KMCI IS DRIVING NORTHERLY SFC WINDS NEAR 10 KTS
INTO THE ARKLATEX...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT TIMES. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS NOW MOVING E OF KJAN AND HAS NORTHERLY WINDS TO ABOUT 10KFT AT
15-30KTS...THEN BACKING TO NW GENERALLY LESS THAN 50KTS. EXPECT
SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN MVF/LOW VFR CIGS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON
BCMG SKC TOWARD SUNSET. OVERNIGHT...SFC WINDS DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM
WITH A FEW SITES PRONE TO BRIEF MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK. EXPECT
E/SE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH FEW TO SCT CU. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
EXPECT 1KFT AND HIGHER CLOUD DECK TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LOWER CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM GROUND FOG BELOW 500 FEET FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  79  55  79  59  83 /  10   0   0  10  10
DEQ  79  50  79  60  79 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  79  54  80  60  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  78  52  79  58  82 /  10   0   0  10  20
TYR  80  58  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  81  57  82  62  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  83  59  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 221719
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1219 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. COOL FRONT IS NOW
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE COAST. HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR ONGOING AT ALL
TERMINALS UNDER CU AND STRATOCU. CLOUDS WILL BE ERODING AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANTICIPATING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH THAT...COULD SEE SOME RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
ALL TERMINALS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY
EAST OF KAEX TO KACP TO JUST NORTH OF KBMT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY STALL BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING AT KLCH SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.50 INCHES. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER IS WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING. WILL
HOLD ON TO JUST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH COMBO FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221520
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1020 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING. NORTH WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
EXPECT 1KFT AND HIGHER CLOUD DECK TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...LOWER CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM GROUND FOG BELOW 500 FEET FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. FOR THIS UPDATE WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  79  55  79  59  83 /  10   0   0  10  10
DEQ  79  50  79  60  79 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  79  54  80  60  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  78  52  79  58  82 /  10   0   0  10  20
TYR  80  58  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  81  57  82  62  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  83  59  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY
EAST OF KAEX TO KACP TO JUST NORTH OF KBMT. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY STALL BETWEEN
THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING AT KLCH SHOWED DECENT MOISTURE IN
PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AROUND 1.50 INCHES. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE HOWEVER IS WEAK WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING. WILL
HOLD ON TO JUST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM SOUTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH COMBO FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
KBPT  81  64  81  65  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
KAEX  81  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  80  63  81  64  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221308
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
808 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES THIS MORNING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT NEARS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE PROFILE OF THE SOUNDING ONLY SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...WHERE ANY RAIN DOES OCCUR. WINDS ARE
UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING...OUT OF THE WEST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TEXAS HILLS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF TEXAS HILLS. NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THE 500MB
DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX OVER ARKANSAS.

SHORT TERM...
WRF3KM SHOWED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HOLDING
TOGETHER AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA
PARISHES THROUGH NOON...REMAINING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ZONES THROUGH AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
AT THE SAME TIME. SHV INDICATED PW VALUE OF 1.35 INCHES IN THE
AXIS WHILE GFS WAS A TENTH HIGHER. GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING EAST AND DECREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OR QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL...THEREFORE WILL INSERT 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...AREAS
CLOSES TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY DECREASE BY 5 DEGREES AT THE MOST
THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH HALF ZONES/COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CREATE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ERGO...SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
SATURDAY BUT MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER EAST CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST. IF THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS TRUE...VERY COLD CORE STORM WILL BRING STRONG
STORMS AND LOWER THICKNESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPS FOR THE END OF APRIL.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OTHER
THAN A THIN CIRRUS DECK PASSING OVER AND A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP. IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN.

MEFFER

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LENDING
TO LIGHT COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  57  81  57 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  61  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  79  59  81  58 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  77  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLCH 221213
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
713 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY NOON OR SO PER FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT
SECTIONS/SOUNDINGS...THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO GIVE ADDITIONAL THOUGHT TO FOG POTENTIAL LATER
TONIGHT AS GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND A
SHALLOW RIBBON OF SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PROGGED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221139
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
639 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT ANY
VSBY CONCERNS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT NLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS
TODAY...WITH LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION
REMAINED WELL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS NOTED AND A SMALL DROP IN DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING. DO NOT SEE THE THE REALLY
DENSE FOG BEING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT LATER TODAY...
AND THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND
CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED A MUCH STRONGER ONE...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT GFS BACKING OFF ON MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.

MOSTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER LATE IN THE PERIOD...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  79  55  79  59  83 /  10   0   0  10  10
DEQ  79  50  79  60  79 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  79  54  80  60  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  78  52  79  58  82 /  10   0   0  10  20
TYR  80  58  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  81  57  82  62  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  83  59  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 220940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

69




000
FXUS64 KLCH 220940
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND TEMPS ARE NOT
SHIFTING DRAMATICALLY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE. THE SETUP IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ISSUED. BEHIND
THE FRONT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BRINGING MORE DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL EXTEND TO THE FORECAST AREA SO IT WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THE
MODELS ARE PROJECTING A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFER BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
THE GFS. OPTED TO GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF A SINGLE MODEL RUN. EITHER WAY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS DROPPING OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  82  64  81  65  81 /  30  10  10  10  20
KAEX  80  59  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  20
KLFT  79  63  81  64  81 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

69





000
FXUS64 KLIX 220936
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
436 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TEXAS HILLS.
SURFACE DEWPOINT READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWED CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH ALABAMA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA TO JUST
EAST OF TEXAS HILLS. NAM AND GFS INITIALIZED THE 500MB
DISTURBANCE/VORT MAX OVER ARKANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WRF3KM SHOWED THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA HOLDING
TOGETHER AND TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FLORIDA
PARISHES THROUGH NOON...REMAINING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OVER ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST TO
GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH ZONES THROUGH AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST
AT THE SAME TIME. SHV INDICATED PW VALUE OF 1.35 INCHES IN THE
AXIS WHILE GFS WAS A TENTH HIGHER. GFS SHOW THE MOISTURE AXIS
MOVING EAST AND DECREASING TO 1.2 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. UNDOUBTEDLY SOME OR QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE
ANY RAINFALL...THEREFORE WILL INSERT 20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES AND MISSISSIPPI COAST...AREAS
CLOSES TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
SLIGHT AND SURFACE DEWPOINT MAY DECREASE BY 5 DEGREES AT THE MOST
THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH HALF ZONES/COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CREATE SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
ERGO...SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL NOT BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY
SATURDAY BUT MAINTAIN BROAD RIDGE OVER EAST CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM
AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST. IF THIS
SYSTEM HOLDS TRUE...VERY COLD CORE STORM WILL BRING STRONG
STORMS AND LOWER THICKNESS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH RECORD COLD
TEMPS FOR THE END OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLIER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OTHER
THAN A THIN CIRRUS DECK PASSING OVER AND A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP. IF MVFR CIGS DO DEVELOP...THEY ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATER MORNING TO POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS LIKE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND LENDING
TO LIGHT COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AROUND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             MONITORING RIVER FLOODING
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  79  57  81  57 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  81  61  83  62 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  79  59  81  58 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  79  64  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  77  62  79  58 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  77  59  79  57 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 220909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION
REMAINED WELL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS NOTED AND A SMALL DROP IN DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPS. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE GONE BY MID MORNING. DO NOT SEE THE THE REALLY
DENSE FOG BEING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND ALOFT LATER TODAY...
AND THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING COOL AND
CLEAR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED A MUCH STRONGER ONE...
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT GFS BACKING OFF ON MOISTURE AT THIS TIME.

MOSTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER LATE IN THE PERIOD...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOL WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  58  82  61  83 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  79  55  79  59  83 /  10   0   0  10  10
DEQ  79  50  79  60  79 /   0   0   0  10  30
TXK  79  54  80  60  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
ELD  78  52  79  58  82 /  10   0   0  10  20
TYR  80  58  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  81  57  82  62  82 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  83  59  84  63  83 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14






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