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000
FXUS64 KLIX 181307 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS LINGERED
AS NOTED BY THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR SEPTEMBER. WHILE WINDS ABOVE
600MB ARE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...WINDS BENEATH THIS LEVELS ARE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED 46220 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. MLCAPE VALUES WERE CALCULATED
AT 1350 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX WAS -5. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AS NOTED BELOW IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS MAY MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AS STORM
MOTIONS THIS MORNING WERE DETERMINED TO BE AROUND 1 KNOT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT WITH THE
BALLOON BURSTING 30.5 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLIX 181307 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
807 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS LINGERED
AS NOTED BY THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR SEPTEMBER. WHILE WINDS ABOVE
600MB ARE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...WINDS BENEATH THIS LEVELS ARE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED 46220 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. MLCAPE VALUES WERE CALCULATED
AT 1350 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX WAS -5. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AS NOTED BELOW IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS MAY MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AS STORM
MOTIONS THIS MORNING WERE DETERMINED TO BE AROUND 1 KNOT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT WITH THE
BALLOON BURSTING 30.5 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF
LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 181302
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS LINGERED
AS NOTED BY THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR SEPTEMBER. WHILE WINDS ABOVE
600MB ARE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...WINDS BENEATH THIS LEVELS ARE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED 46220 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. MLCAPE VALUES WERE CALCULATED
AT 1350 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX WAS -5. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AS NOTED BELOW IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS MAY MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AS STORM
MOTIONS THIS MORNING WERE DETERMINED TO BE AROUND 1 KNOT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT WITH THE
BALLOON BURSTING 19.7 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART
OF LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 181302
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
802 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR THAT FILTERED INTO THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS LINGERED
AS NOTED BY THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUE FOR SEPTEMBER. WHILE WINDS ABOVE
600MB ARE FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...WINDS BENEATH THIS LEVELS ARE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED 46220 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. MLCAPE VALUES WERE CALCULATED
AT 1350 J/KG AND THE LIFTED INDEX WAS -5. WHILE WE ARE EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS AS NOTED BELOW IN SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS MAY MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AS STORM
MOTIONS THIS MORNING WERE DETERMINED TO BE AROUND 1 KNOT.

12Z BALLOON INFO: NO ISSUES WITH THIS MORNING/S FLIGHT WITH THE
BALLOON BURSTING 19.7 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART
OF LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 19.7 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 181131
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES THROUGH DALLAS THROUGH LAFAYETTE THIS
MORNING...SLOPING TOWARD THE GULF AIR WITH HEIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SURFACE SEPARATES MOIST UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH AND WEST...FROM DRIER
STABLE AIR NORTH AND EAST.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE
...SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  50  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KLCH 181131
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES THROUGH DALLAS THROUGH LAFAYETTE THIS
MORNING...SLOPING TOWARD THE GULF AIR WITH HEIGHT. THE FRONTAL
SURFACE SEPARATES MOIST UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH AND WEST...FROM DRIER
STABLE AIR NORTH AND EAST.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE FRONTAL ZONE
...SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  50  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 181048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM WITH FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AT KLFK TERMINAL. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SUNK INTO NE TX...THE MAIN FOCUS OF SCT AFTN AND EVE TSTMS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY SWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NE OK AND NW AR ENTERING VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AT KELD AND
KMLU TERMINALS...ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE ISOLD. A WET
GROUND AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM THIS AFTN CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS REMAIN LGT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER RIDGING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY
19/00Z ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND 19/03Z ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 60S WHERE RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. THE NW
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ACTIVE AND REMAINS SO THIS MORNING WITH A NEW
CROP IN THE PLAINS MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA WITH HOPEFULLY A TIMELY
BOUNDARY IF NOTHING ELSE. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NB/KN AND CO
AND IS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BOTTLED UP FROM NM INTO TX
AND LA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OUR THINKING REMAINS WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY INTO THE COMING DAYS AS RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE SIMILAR WITH
MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED. THE COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK IS
ABOUT THE SAME ON TIMING WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  90  69  91  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEQ  89  67  89  67  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  88  67  89  69  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  89  68  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  86  70  90  70  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
GGG  88  68  90  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  85  69  90  70  92 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 181048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AM WITH FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AT KLFK TERMINAL. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HAS SUNK INTO NE TX...THE MAIN FOCUS OF SCT AFTN AND EVE TSTMS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY SWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NE OK AND NW AR ENTERING VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. FURTHER TO THE EAST...AT KELD AND
KMLU TERMINALS...ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE ISOLD. A WET
GROUND AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM THIS AFTN CONVECTION MAY ENHANCE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...AS WINDS REMAIN LGT ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...INCREASING UPPER RIDGING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BY
19/00Z ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND 19/03Z ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 60S WHERE RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. THE NW
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ACTIVE AND REMAINS SO THIS MORNING WITH A NEW
CROP IN THE PLAINS MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA WITH HOPEFULLY A TIMELY
BOUNDARY IF NOTHING ELSE. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NB/KN AND CO
AND IS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BOTTLED UP FROM NM INTO TX
AND LA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OUR THINKING REMAINS WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY INTO THE COMING DAYS AS RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE SIMILAR WITH
MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED. THE COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK IS
ABOUT THE SAME ON TIMING WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  90  69  91  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEQ  89  67  89  67  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  88  67  89  69  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  89  68  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  86  70  90  70  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
GGG  88  68  90  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  85  69  90  70  92 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 181000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR
MOST...THERE ARE A FEW UPPER 60S WHERE RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. THE NW
FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ACTIVE AND REMAINS SO THIS MORNING WITH A NEW
CROP IN THE PLAINS MOVING TOWARD OUR AREA WITH HOPEFULLY A TIMELY
BOUNDARY IF NOTHING ELSE. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NB/KN AND CO
AND IS KEEPING THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BOTTLED UP FROM NM INTO TX
AND LA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OUR THINKING REMAINS WITH LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY INTO THE COMING DAYS AS RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE ARE SIMILAR WITH
MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED. THE COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEK IS
ABOUT THE SAME ON TIMING WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PAST
EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  71  93 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  90  69  91  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEQ  89  67  89  67  90 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  88  67  89  69  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  89  68  88  68  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  86  70  90  70  91 /  40  10  10  10  20
GGG  88  68  90  68  92 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  85  69  90  70  92 /  60  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLCH 180849
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  50  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE






000
FXUS64 KLCH 180849
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
349 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE OVER EAST TEXAS JUST CLIPPING OUR WESTERN MOST COUNTIES.
STRATOFORM PRECIP EXTENTS EAST FROM MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG...AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS INCOMING EXPECT THAT TO REMAIN THE CASE.

TODAY...NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGGED
AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES AT BPT AT 18Z...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM
AT AEX COMING IN AT 1.8 INCHES. WITH THAT SAID...POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY FROM CATEGORICAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TO JUST A CHANCE ADVANCING
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. INCREASED ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HEAVIEST RAINS OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE
BEAUMONT AREA. QPF SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES.

WITH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF SHORTWAVE AND AMPLIFICATION OF MID-CONUS
TROF...THE AREA WILL COME UNDER A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
SHUNT THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE GULF WATERS RESULTING IN DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH EXTENT OF
DRIER AIR INCOMING...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE ANY RAIN CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.

THE NEW WEEK...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND SIMPLY CARRYING LOW END POPS
AT THIS TIME. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AFTER FROPA TO
MAINTAIN A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE LOOKING
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY. THIS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE...IN CONCERT WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCING THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IS DISPLACE SOUTHWARD
WITH PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-CONUS
RIDGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  83  72  86  71  89 /  80  30  30  10  10
KBPT  82  72  85  73  88 /  80  50  50  10  10
KAEX  85  69  87  69  91 /  40  20  20  10  10
KLFT  85  72  86  71  89 /  60  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLIX 180841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PREVALENT ABOVE
20KFT WITH A VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE NOTED IN WIND DATA AND EMULATED
IN BROADER RADAR PRESENTATION ACROSS TEXAS. THE COMPLEX CURRENTLY
OVER THE AUSTIN AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG MAX
THETA-E AXIS. GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
INDICATING A VORTICITY STRUCTURE AND STRONG OMEGA MOVING INTO THE
AREA BUT DO HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING. THE GFS IS EARLIEST
WITH A 17Z-18Z ONSET IN THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF ABOUT MID-
AFTERNOON PEAK ONSET AND NAM LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAN THE OTHER TWO. HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER
TO GFS TIMING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. DESPITE ALL THIS...POPS WILL
STILL BE INDICATED ON THE LOWER SIDE...20-30 PERCENT FOR EASTERN
2/3 OF CWA...TRENDING TO 50 PERCENT ADJACENT TO WFO LCH AREA WHERE
THE GREATER FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN. THIS IS A DECENT BLEND WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. DID INDICATE SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN TYPICAL
POPS FOR THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SITUATION SHOULD ALSO SERVE AS
A FRONTOGENETIC PROCESS THAT FLUSHES THE REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR FRIDAY...WHICH LOOKS NOW TO BE A DRY DAY OVER LAND AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE INDICATED TO BE DRIER THAN CLIMO WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT INDICATED FOR THE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE
CONSIDERATIONS. STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY WITH SOME ATTENDANT MOISTURE WORTHY OF 30 PERCENT POPS
PRE-FRONTAL. DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE AFFECTED TO
THE COOL SIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT GREATER INFLUENCES WILL
BE ON HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEK. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM AROUND 10Z THROUGH 13Z
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.  SOME INCREASED MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AT KMSY...KNEW...AND KGPT SHOULD KEEP REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
BAY AT THESE TERMINALS.  KHUM WILL SEE THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR RESTIRCTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ONCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION MIXES OUT AROUND 14Z...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD RANGING FROM 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED.  AN UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO
THE AREA.  THIS COULD SPARK OFF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND HAVE
INCLUDED SOME PROB 30 GROUPS WITH TS WORDING TO REFLECT THIS RISK.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  BY 02Z
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AND A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. 32

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE WATERS TODAY.  GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW WITH A PERIOD OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE GULF COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS INCREASED EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN
PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD FLORIDA. WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACE...SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY RISE TO AROUND 3
TO 5 FEET ON FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FOR
SATURDAY.  SOME HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.  TIDES WILL BE
MOST ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHTER EASTERLY FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MONDAY. SEAS
WILL ALSO FALL BACK TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY MONDAY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. 32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  66  89  67 /  30  30   0  10
BTR  86  68  89  70 /  40  30  10  10
ASD  87  74  87  76 /  30  30  20  10
MSY  86  73  86  76 /  30  30  20  10
GPT  87  75  86  76 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  88  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR
32







000
FXUS64 KSHV 180517
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SWD
INTO SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO
BACK-BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST SO BELIEVE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN W
OF KTXK. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN CYCLING BUT HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING SO CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL NOT PERSIST S OF
I-30 BUT CANNOT RULE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING KTYR/KGG LATER THIS
MORNING. FARTHER S...THE ERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MAY
AFFECT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/ASCENT FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL
WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION EVEN AFTER
SUNSET. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN OUR
VICINITY OF SE OK INTO SW AR WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME SOUTH AT LEAST INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST BEFORE IT MAKE IT TO TXK. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NE TX
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES EXIST MAINLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM TYR TO THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ATTM SHOWING NO TENDENCY TO WANT TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST SO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
SUFFICE.

DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES MAINLY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER 70S SHOULD
SUFFICE EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES WHERE
CONVECTION COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  92  70  91  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  66  88  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10  30
TXK  67  89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  67  89  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  68  89  70  90  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
GGG  67  90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  69  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 180517
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SWD
INTO SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO
BACK-BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST SO BELIEVE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN W
OF KTXK. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN CYCLING BUT HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING SO CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL NOT PERSIST S OF
I-30 BUT CANNOT RULE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING KTYR/KGG LATER THIS
MORNING. FARTHER S...THE ERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MAY
AFFECT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/ASCENT FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL
WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION EVEN AFTER
SUNSET. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN OUR
VICINITY OF SE OK INTO SW AR WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME SOUTH AT LEAST INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST BEFORE IT MAKE IT TO TXK. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NE TX
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES EXIST MAINLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM TYR TO THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ATTM SHOWING NO TENDENCY TO WANT TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST SO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
SUFFICE.

DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES MAINLY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER 70S SHOULD
SUFFICE EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES WHERE
CONVECTION COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  92  70  91  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  66  88  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10  30
TXK  67  89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  67  89  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  68  89  70  90  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
GGG  67  90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  69  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KLIX 180441
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE MORE FOG PRONE TAF SITES COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CEILINGS TOWARD SUNRISE. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  66  87 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  72  86  69  88 /  10  40  10  20
ASD  71  86  68  88 /  10  30  10  20
MSY  75  85  72  87 /  10  30  20  20
GPT  73  86  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  70  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180210
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
910 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. STILL PRETTY JUICY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH THE 18/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWING HIGH PWAT VALUES AT
2.16 INCHES. THEREFORE...NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...EXTREME LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND THE POP DISTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT
THIS. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT/NUM SHRA/ISO TSRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE TX/S LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...DIMINISHING
BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING. THUS...VCTS CONTINUES THRU 01Z FOR
TERMINALS...EXCLUDING AEX WHICH HAS REMAINED PRECIP FREE TODAY.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS TOWARDS THE 10-14Z TIME
FRAME...WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR AEX. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN A BIT
EARLIER ON THU FOR BPT/LCH AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. SHRA/TSRA INCREASES BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR AEX ONCE AGAIN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT INLAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CROWLEY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF I-10 OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE KICKER APPEARS TO BE A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF TONIGHT INLAND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REFORM OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THEN...RESTART THE PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT BROADER AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP AS SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD SOME AND THE EASTERN US TROF PUSHES EAST.
REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR GOOD DRYING.

THE NEXT COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY GIVING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE PREVAILS. A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO HIGHER EASTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10
KBPT  74  86  72  88  72 /  40  60  30  30  20
KAEX  72  88  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  73  86  71  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180210
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
910 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DISSIPATED...AND WILL ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING. STILL PRETTY JUICY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH THE 18/00Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH STILL SHOWING HIGH PWAT VALUES AT
2.16 INCHES. THEREFORE...NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL AREAS. WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL KEEP MOST NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER LOWER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...EXTREME LOWER SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND THE POP DISTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT WILL REFLECT
THIS. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

RUA

&&

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT/NUM SHRA/ISO TSRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE TX/S LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...DIMINISHING
BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING. THUS...VCTS CONTINUES THRU 01Z FOR
TERMINALS...EXCLUDING AEX WHICH HAS REMAINED PRECIP FREE TODAY.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS TOWARDS THE 10-14Z TIME
FRAME...WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR AEX. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN A BIT
EARLIER ON THU FOR BPT/LCH AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. SHRA/TSRA INCREASES BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR AEX ONCE AGAIN.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT INLAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CROWLEY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF I-10 OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE KICKER APPEARS TO BE A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF TONIGHT INLAND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REFORM OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THEN...RESTART THE PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT BROADER AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP AS SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD SOME AND THE EASTERN US TROF PUSHES EAST.
REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR GOOD DRYING.

THE NEXT COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY GIVING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE PREVAILS. A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO HIGHER EASTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10
KBPT  74  86  72  88  72 /  40  60  30  30  20
KAEX  72  88  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  73  86  71  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 180200
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
900 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL
WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION EVEN AFTER
SUNSET. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN OUR
VICINITY OF SE OK INTO SW AR WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME SOUTH AT LEAST INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST BEFORE IT MAKE IT TO TXK. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NE TX
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES EXIST MAINLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM TYR TO THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ATTM SHOWING NO TENDENCY TO WANT TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST SO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
SUFFICE.

DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES MAINLY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER 70S SHOULD
SUFFICE EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES WHERE
CONVECTION COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HRS. MOIST LVL AIRMASS AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
BEYOND 18/16Z WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND DAYTIME CU
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  40  30  10  10  10
TXK  72  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13







000
FXUS64 KSHV 172351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HRS. MOIST LVL AIRMASS AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
BEYOND 18/16Z WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND DAYTIME CU
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 172351
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
651 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAFS...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HRS. MOIST LVL AIRMASS AND A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HRS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
BEYOND 18/16Z WITH ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS AND DAYTIME CU
BETWEEN 3500 AND 5000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS/TSTMS IS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 172218
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/NUM SHRA/ISO TSRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE TX/S LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...DIMINISHING
BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING. THUS...VCTS CONTINUES THRU 01Z FOR
TERMINALS...EXCLUDING AEX WHICH HAS REMAINED PRECIP FREE TODAY.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS TOWARDS THE 10-14Z TIME
FRAME...WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR AEX. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN A BIT
EARLIER ON THU FOR BPT/LCH AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. SHRA/TSRA INCREASES BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR AEX ONCE AGAIN.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT INLAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CROWLEY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF I-10 OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE KICKER APPEARS TO BE A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF TONIGHT INLAND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REFORM OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THEN...RESTART THE PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT BROADER AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP AS SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD SOME AND THE EASTERN US TROF PUSHES EAST.
REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR GOOD DRYING.

THE NEXT COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY GIVING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE PREVAILS. A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO HIGHER EASTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10
KBPT  73  86  72  88  72 /  30  60  30  30  20
KAEX  71  88  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  73  86  71  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 172218
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
518 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT/NUM SHRA/ISO TSRA CONTINUES ACROSS SE TX/S LA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...DIMINISHING
BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING. THUS...VCTS CONTINUES THRU 01Z FOR
TERMINALS...EXCLUDING AEX WHICH HAS REMAINED PRECIP FREE TODAY.
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE MVFR VSBY/CEILINGS TOWARDS THE 10-14Z TIME
FRAME...WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR AEX. SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO BEGIN A BIT
EARLIER ON THU FOR BPT/LCH AS MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE/LIFT REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. SHRA/TSRA INCREASES BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR AEX ONCE AGAIN.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT INLAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CROWLEY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF I-10 OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE KICKER APPEARS TO BE A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF TONIGHT INLAND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REFORM OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THEN...RESTART THE PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT BROADER AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP AS SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD SOME AND THE EASTERN US TROF PUSHES EAST.
REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR GOOD DRYING.

THE NEXT COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY GIVING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE PREVAILS. A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO HIGHER EASTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  71  89  71 /  20  60  30  30  10
KBPT  73  86  72  88  72 /  30  60  30  30  20
KAEX  71  88  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  10
KLFT  73  86  71  89  71 /  20  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 172055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US HAS DUG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SERN US TODAY WHICH HAS PUSHED DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS JUST A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ABOUT THE SAME ON THE SEA BREEZE
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVERALL CHANGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOUR WITH INLAND CONVECTION DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE BUT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES. THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY GOING
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE
GULF...BACK INTO THE AREA. SO POPS WILL BE COMING BACK UP TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL AS
WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION OVER MARINE AREAS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS CURRENTLY
DETECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. AFTER
TOMORROW...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. LIKELY TO BE A BIT OF SWELL TO ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR
SO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAY RAISE TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST A
BIT. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE ON SUNDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM KHZR TO KASD AND
IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THERE ARE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR TO THE NORTH.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED...CURRENTLY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE IDEA OF
REMOVING MENTION OF VICINITY PRECIP IF NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  66  87 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  72  86  69  88 /  10  40  10  20
ASD  71  86  68  88 /  10  30  10  20
MSY  75  85  72  87 /  10  30  20  20
GPT  73  86  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  70  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 172055
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
355 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US HAS DUG
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SERN US TODAY WHICH HAS PUSHED DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. SUBSEQUENTLY...MUCH QUIETER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS JUST A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ABOUT THE SAME ON THE SEA BREEZE
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OVERALL CHANGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOUR WITH INLAND CONVECTION DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET. THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE BUT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND ADJACENT LA PARISHES. THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND
HIGHER COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT FURTHER AWAY GOING
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE THAT GOT PUSHED INTO THE
GULF...BACK INTO THE AREA. SO POPS WILL BE COMING BACK UP TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD AS SLIGHT
UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL
SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION AND HAVE LIMITED CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH
ONLY COASTAL AREAS SEEING ANY STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF STILL SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPS MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES AND DEWPOINTS WILL FALL AS
WELL.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
CONVECTION OVER MARINE AREAS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS TODAY
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS CURRENTLY
DETECTED. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. AFTER
TOMORROW...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. LIKELY TO BE A BIT OF SWELL TO ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT OR
SO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MAY RAISE TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST A
BIT. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE ON SUNDAY. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS FROM KHZR TO KASD AND
IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS. JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THERE ARE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR TO THE NORTH.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED...CURRENTLY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
NEW ORLEANS TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE IDEA OF
REMOVING MENTION OF VICINITY PRECIP IF NO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE RIDING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MID-MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  88  66  87 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  72  86  69  88 /  10  40  10  20
ASD  71  86  68  88 /  10  30  10  20
MSY  75  85  72  87 /  10  30  20  20
GPT  73  86  70  87 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  70  88  67  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 172044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT INLAND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXTENDING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO NEAR
CROWLEY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF I-10 OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF HOURS.

MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE KICKER APPEARS TO BE A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL PIECES OF ENERGY FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH AND THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OFF TONIGHT INLAND WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND REFORM OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
THEN...RESTART THE PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...HOWEVER...I DO EXPECT BROADER AREA OF RAIN TO
DEVELOP AS SIGNIFICANT PIECES OF ENERGY FLOW INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING OUT AS THE HIGH TO OUR
WEST BUILDS EASTWARD SOME AND THE EASTERN US TROF PUSHES EAST.
REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PUSHED OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR GOOD DRYING.

THE NEXT COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY GIVING US COOLER TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE OR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE PREVAILS. A LIGHT VARIABLE WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A SHIFT TO HIGHER EASTERLY
FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  71  89 /  20  60  30  30
KBPT  73  86  72  88 /  30  60  30  30
KAEX  71  88  69  91 /  20  30  20  20
KLFT  73  86  71  89 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 172022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172022
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
322 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE REGION REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ALOFT...WHILE
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS. MEAN RH WAS HIGHEST
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SO OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS...STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES EAST...AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AGAIN. THEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE
POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. ATTM...WILL KEEP
ONLY LOW POPS...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME
THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHES THE CWA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRY THE AREA OUT...
BRINGING LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MORE SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS. THIS
FALL LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST...OR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  68  92  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  92  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  69  88  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  89  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  87  68  89  70 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  72  88  67  90  69 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  86  69  91  70 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171813
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS...SCT TO BKN STRATOCU RESULTING IN LOW VFR
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD. CU FIELD WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY
REMAINS STALLED OVER FAR NRN LA AND TRAILING BACK NORTH TO NEAR
TXK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT AND VRBL FOR THE S AR/N LA SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE S/SE WINDS WILL BE COMMON AT THE E TX
LOCATIONS...WHERE ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BNDRY. WITH THE BNDRY EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY...DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BY
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON THURSDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
COMMON AT MOST SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR ONCE AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171803
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
17/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY EXTENDING NW INTO
SE TX TO NEAR AND WEST OF KBPT. ELSEWHERE...TAF SITES SO FAR REMAIN
CLEAR OF CONVECTON WITH SOME ISLTD SHRA ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
COASTAL PARISHES AS WELL AS ACRS INTERIOR SE TX. MAIN AXIS OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FM CNTL TX SE TOWARD THE NW
GULF...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS AS
SHORTWAVES ALOFT TVL SE. WITH THIS IN MIND...KEPT TEMPO GROUPS AT
KBPT AND ALSO KLCH ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION HERE IS A
LITTLE LOWER. LEFT VCTS AT KAEX/KLFT/KARA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR DURING PERIODS OF CONVECTION.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN. FN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  84  70 /  40  20  60  20
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 171614
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD BE
OBTAINABLE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME... ALLOWING
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN TO CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT...SO ANY CONVECTION WHICH
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 171525
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1025 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENT OF POPS TO SHOW HIGHEST PROBABLY OF RAIN IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF
AS YOU MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FORECAST
PACKAGE ON THE WHOLE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS FORESEEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70 /  50  20  60  30
KBPT  87  73  83  72 /  60  30  60  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69 /  20  20  30  20
KLFT  89  73  85  71 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 171326
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES AS IT HAS SINCE MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE STILL HAS INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT AS
GREAT AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIFTED INDEX AT -4.5 AND
MLCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND
3 KNOTS AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY ARE LIGHT.
WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING ARE
FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AND A PEAK WIND OF 63 KNOTS WAS FOUND
AT 43000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT THIS MORNING THAT TERMINATED
27.6 MILES DOWNRANGE OVER LAKE BORGNE AT A HEIGHT OF 21 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLCH 171137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM COLLEGE
STATION TO JUST OFFSHORE THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

NORTHWESTERLY SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRAVEL OVER THE TROUGH...
SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE BEAUMONT TO LAKE CHARLES AIR CORRIDOR.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KSHV 171048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 171048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT MAINLY KLFK...KTXK...AND KELD TERMINALS. THIS FOG MAY
PERSIST MORE SO AT KLFK...AS 2 TO NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED NEAR TERMINAL
YESTERDAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SW AR... WITH MOSTLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES EXISTING NORTH OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND. WINDS TO REMAIN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED AFTN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NE TX. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH INTO
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
EXPECT IFR VSBYS...AND POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...TO BE ON
INCREASE AFTER 18/08Z ACROSS MUCH OF AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WITH A MIX OF MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. THERE IS
SOME FOG AND VERY LOW CLOUDS OVER SOME OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. LIGHT
NE FLOW BISECTING THE CWA WITH A STALLED FRONT DRAPED FROM SE
OK...INTO NE LA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE CALM OR
LIGHT SE. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL
RIDGE SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF ODILE OVER THE SW U.S.
AND NW MEXICO WITH STILL 50 MPH WINDS AND MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH PER
THE LATEST ADVISORY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEED THE REMNANT NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD IN
THE COMING DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
AND THE LEFT OVER FRONT TO PEAK SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES INTO
TOMORROW. THEN...AFTER A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE FALL LIKE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST FULL
DAY OF FALL BY TUESDAY. THE EURO AND GFS ARE COMPARABLE WITH
EVOLUTION OF A WIND SHIFT BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...PRE DAWN. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURES UNTIL
THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. MAV/MEX BLENDED INTO THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT POPS AND WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  90  68  92 /  20  20  30  10  10
MLU  90  71  90  67  92 /  10  10  30  10  10
DEQ  88  69  88  66  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
TXK  89  71  88  67  89 /  10  20  30  10  10
ELD  89  70  88  67  89 /  10  10  30  10  10
TYR  90  72  88  68  89 /  30  30  40  20  10
GGG  91  72  89  67  90 /  30  30  30  20  10
LFK  91  73  87  69  91 /  40  30  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 170945
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOG BECOMING AN ISSUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
     ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 170904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR NOW ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP INLAND...WITH NO MORE
THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A GOOD BIT OF CIRRUS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA AND LOWER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INCOMING FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH NOW TROPICAL STORM
ODILE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...BEGINNING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG...GETTING
AN EXTRA BOOST FROM FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SHARP PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST WILL CONTINUE
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHERE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR
2.30 INCHES...THEN DOWN TO A MORE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES OVER
EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. POPS WILL BE ALIGNED ACCORDINGLY WITH
LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DOWN TO
JUST A CHANCE TO THE NORTHEAST.

MOISTURE LOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH POPS. THIS
AS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW EVOLVES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN
THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING EAST OF THE REGION...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-CONUS RIDGE. EXPECTING NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTING IN FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WINDS WILL TREND MORE EASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURNING AS SHARPLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  72  83  70  89 /  60  20  60  30  40
KBPT  87  73  83  72  88 /  60  30  60  40  40
KAEX  90  71  85  69  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
KLFT  89  73  85  71  89 /  50  20  50  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KLIX 170815
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS TRANSITIONED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
HEADLINER TODAY. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION BUT MAY BE DELAYED IN ONSET
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WITH VORTICITY COMPLEX INDICATED
IN GFS DROPPING INTO THE REGION FROM TEXAS AS AN APPARENT
PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE ODILE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE ECMWF
SHOWS SIMILAR VORTICITY STREAK BUT VOID OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOWER POPS BUT THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING BASED ON IN SITU CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL BUT HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO RAIN COOLING AND THICK ANVIL CLOUD COVER AFTER CONVECTION TAKES
HOLD TODAY AND THURSDAY. MORNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MAY NEED TO
ERODE BEFORE GETTING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS RE-ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DICTATE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCH A REGIME IN SUMMER CAN BE
BOTHERSOME IN THAT SUBTLE VORTICITY STRUCTURES OR MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES /MCV/ DROPPING DOWN THE FACE OF RIDGING CAN
SUSTAIN CONVECTION IN AN UNCONVENTIONAL OFF-CLIMES MANNER.
PRECIPITATION ONSET IS TYPICALLY DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 3 PM IN THESE
REGIMES AND CAN PERSIST UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATE THIS NOTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES OCCUR...THEN FRIDAY SHOULD SEE LESSER COVERAGE OVER
LAND AREAS BUT PRETTY ACTIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR FRONTOGENESIS AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE WITH A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY BEFORE SHUNTING EAST MONDAY. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH DENSITY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THAT WILL THEN BECOME SLUGGISH UNTIL THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE GETS INDUCED FARTHER SOUTH BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES MAY SUPPRESS GULF BREEZE CYCLE FOR A FEW
DAYS AND THE FRONTAL ZONE DISRUPTS THE STEADY STATENESS. DESPITE
THE NON-CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER REGIME...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SEASONABLY NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. 24/RR

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VSBY IN LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG AT A FEW
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID-
MORNING FOR GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE ONSET MAY BE
DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 19Z AT MOST LOCATIONS AND MAY CARRY OVER
03Z BEFORE ENDING WITH ANVIL DISSIPATION LIGHT RAINFALL AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL UNDERGO SOME
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BE A SOLID EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH GULF
MONDAY. THE INITIAL FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO REALIZE ANY
SENSIBLE AFFECTS IN THE MARINE AREAS UNTIL MORE CONTINENTAL AIR
FINALLY NUDGES OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  72  90  69 /  20  10  20  20
BTR  90  73  88  70 /  30  10  40  20
ASD  89  73  86  70 /  30  10  30  20
MSY  88  76  84  74 /  30  10  30  20
GPT  89  74  87  71 /  30  10  20  20
PQL  90  70  88  67 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

24/RR







000
FXUS64 KSHV 170514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AS SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MX IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH USUALLY
TEND TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW LVL AIRMASS IS QUITE
MOIST AND AREAS AROUND LUFKIN RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HRS. IF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DO MATERIALIZE...IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. MORE SCT CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY S OF I-20.
KLFK WOULD BE THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT A WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SCT CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 18/00Z. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  69  90  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
MLU  70  89  67  90  69 /  10  30  10  10  10
DEQ  69  87  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
ELD  70  87  66  89  67 /  10  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  88  70  89  71 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  71  89  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  88  72  90  71 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 170514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AND THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. THIS IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN AS SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MX IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WHICH USUALLY
TEND TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...LOW LVL AIRMASS IS QUITE
MOIST AND AREAS AROUND LUFKIN RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
LAST 24 HRS. IF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DO MATERIALIZE...IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. MORE SCT CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY S OF I-20.
KLFK WOULD BE THE TAF SITE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BUT A WEAK
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT COULD LEAD TO
SCT CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 18/00Z. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  69  90  70 /  20  30  10  10  10
MLU  70  89  67  90  69 /  10  30  10  10  10
DEQ  69  87  66  88  67 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  71  88  67  89  69 /  20  30  10  10  10
ELD  70  87  66  89  67 /  10  30  10  10  10
TYR  72  88  70  89  71 /  30  40  20  10  10
GGG  71  89  70  89  70 /  30  30  20  10  10
LFK  73  88  72  90  71 /  30  40  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 170456
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AROUND EACH TAF SITES. AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. DUE TO LESS
COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR MCB...HDC...GPT
ASD...PROB30 FOR BTR...NEW...MSY AND TEMPO FOR HUM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 170240
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 170240
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35





000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35





000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35





000
FXUS64 KSHV 170201
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATE NEEDED AT MANDATORY UPDATE TIME...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

35





000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 162350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HRS
BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING. KLFK MAY CONTINUE
TO BE PERIODICALLY AFFECTED AND LATER AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.
FARTHER N...SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT IN AR
AND THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD. DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO AFFECT KTXK OR KELD. MOST TERMINALS NOT BEING AFFECTED
BY SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW STRATUS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KLFK FOR A FEW HRS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE DAYTIME CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 162330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 162330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE AROUND 17/03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT KLCH/LFT/KARA TO ALL HAVE PREVAILING
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. AFTER 17/03Z...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 162105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 162105
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEEP E TX/WCNTRL
LA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND S OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
ONLY SLIPPED A LITTLE FARTHER S INTO E TX/NCNTRL LA. AS
EXPECTED...THE WEAK SEABREEZE STILL REMAINS TO OUR S OVER SE
TX/SCNTRL LA...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT FOR AREAS
S OF I-20...BUT HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW TOWERS BUILDING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE OK/WCNTRL AR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND HAVE ALSO INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION FOR
THESE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO
INDICATES A WEAK SFC FRONT OVER NE OK/CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ITS SLOW SSW PROGRESS WILL CEASE BY LATE
TONIGHT...JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. THIS BNDRY MAY BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK N WEDNESDAY...WITH BETTER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER E TX/WCNTRL LA AS SFC BNDRYS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION...AND INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM TS
ODILE SPREADS SE ACROSS TX.

ODILE ITSELF HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
WILL ENTER NW OLD MX LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING NE ACROSS SRN
AZ/NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF TX THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SE
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. ATTM...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO THE W OF THE REGION...BUT
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE OVER THE SW SECTIONS OF E TX
WHICH WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM ODILE.
IN ADDITION...THE WRF/ECMWF INDICATE THE WEAK SFC FRONT OVER AR
BACKDOORING SW AGAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY FOCUS SCT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AS THE BEST INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ENTRAIN S BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.

AFTERWARDS...THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E OVER THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION. STILL QUITE A FEW
OF DISCREPANCIES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WITH WHAT THEY DO WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HANGING THIS
DISTURBANCE UP OVER KS/OK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT KEEPS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FARTHER W ACROSS CNTRL OK/TX THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS DIGS SE BUT ALLOWS SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TO SPILL S INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  92  72  91  69 /  10  20  20  30  10
MLU  69  91  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  30  10
DEQ  66  89  69  87  66 /  10  10  20  30  10
TXK  68  90  71  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  10
ELD  66  90  70  87  66 /  10  10  10  30  10
TYR  71  90  72  88  70 /  10  30  30  40  20
GGG  71  91  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
LFK  72  90  73  88  72 /  20  40  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 162100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 162100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  85  73  82  70 /  30  40  20  60  20
KBPT  75  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  30  30  10  50  20
KLFT  74  85  72  84  71 /  30  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 162051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS TO BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS OF
I-10 AND I-12.  MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NW TO SE BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING CELLS HAVE COMPLICATED MOVEMENT AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY
FOR SUBTLE MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STILL IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD ALSO FAVOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADIENT FROM ISOLATED IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO 50 PCT
ALONG THE LA COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILITY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
HOWEVER BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT
DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A DECAY STAGE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DIMINISHED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH USUAL DIURNAL ONSHORE/OFFSHORE TRENDS.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS SOLUTION OF 20
KNOT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH A
NON GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KNOTS...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE TEMPERED WAVE HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWELL
MAY ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS AND TIDAL LEVELS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START WINDING DOWN
CLOSE TO SUNSET...WITH MOST OR ALL TERMINALS SHED OF THEIR
CONVECTION BY 01Z OR 02Z. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT KHUM...KNEW AND KMSY FOR
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  90  69  89 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  71  91  70  89 /  30  30  10  40
ASD  71  90  72  89 /  30  30  10  30
MSY  75  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  30
GPT  72  90  73  89 /  30  30  10  20
PQL  69  89  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 162051
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA
HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS TO BE
ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS OF
I-10 AND I-12.  MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY NW TO SE BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING CELLS HAVE COMPLICATED MOVEMENT AND
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING TROUGHING TO TAKE
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD COUPLED WITH AMPLIFICATION OF A
PROGRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS PLACES THE
FORECAST AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH OPENS A VULNERABILITY
FOR SUBTLE MESOSCALE VORTEX STRUCTURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION EACH
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STILL IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD ALSO FAVOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE NORTH. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP POPS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADIENT FROM ISOLATED IN NORTHEAST ZONES TO 50 PCT
ALONG THE LA COAST. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
VARIABLE BY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 90F BEFORE CLOUD COVER THICKENS.

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY EARLY ESTABLISHMENT OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A VULNERABILITY OF MCV FEATURES DROPPING FROM
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THERE WILL
HOWEVER BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST AND SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING THE NEXT SOMEWHAT
DECENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A DECAY STAGE.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
WATERSPOUTS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE DIMINISHED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH USUAL DIURNAL ONSHORE/OFFSHORE TRENDS.
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS SOLUTION OF 20
KNOT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. WILL GO WITH A
NON GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY...WHICH IS CLOSER TO 10-15 KNOTS...AND
NEAR 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. HAVE TEMPERED WAVE HEIGHTS
SLIGHTLY DURING THAT PERIOD AS WELL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SWELL
MAY ENHANCE WAVE HEIGHTS AND TIDAL LEVELS A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND. 35

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE RESULTED IN TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL
TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START WINDING DOWN
CLOSE TO SUNSET...WITH MOST OR ALL TERMINALS SHED OF THEIR
CONVECTION BY 01Z OR 02Z. AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. HAVE ONLY CARRIED VCTS AT KHUM...KNEW AND KMSY FOR
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT AND SUPPORTING USCG SSW OF PASCAGOULA.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  90  69  89 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  71  91  70  89 /  30  30  10  40
ASD  71  90  72  89 /  30  30  10  30
MSY  75  89  76  88 /  30  30  10  30
GPT  72  90  73  89 /  30  30  10  20
PQL  69  89  70  90 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 161809
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161809
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD DESPITE SEVERAL CLOUD LAYERS AFFECTING OUR TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION DUE TO WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. MEANWHILE...CU
FIELD IS QUICKLY EXPANDING NWRD FROM THE LA/TX COAST AS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS
AT ALL TERMINALS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT THE LFK TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT STILL FAVOR
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING
IS FOG DEVELOPING IN THIS VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND WINDS NEAR CALM.
VSBYS MAY DROP TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOR A FEW HOURS BY SUNRISE
BUT QUICKLY IMPROVE THEREAFTER. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 161805
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
105 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STARTING TO INCREASE INLAND...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. PRESERVED THE INHERITED TEMPO -TSRA AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...AND THE VCSH AT KAEX WITH CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BOTH LESS THAN FARTHER SOUTH. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73 /  60  30  40  20
KBPT  86  74  87  73 /  60  40  50  30
KAEX  87  71  90  71 /  60  20  30  20
KLFT  84  73  89  72 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 161633
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
ESE FROM THE LOWER TN VALLEY SW ACROSS NRN MS TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER
INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THE AC SHIELD BENEATH THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING /PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS STILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW UP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE BASE ACROSS SRN AR/SRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
OK. THESE SHOULD BE SPRINKLES AT MOST...AS CIGS REMAIN ABOVE 12KFT PER
THE 15-16Z OBS...WITH MORE OF A CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOON
WHERE BREAKS IN THE AC ARE NOTED AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE
MID 80S. THE 12Z PROGS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH AT ALL IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER SE TX/EXTREME SW LA HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF
MOVING VERY FAR INLAND THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE MORE ESE LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT...THIS CONVECTION MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SRN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LOW CHANCE OVER THE SRN ONE-THIRD OF THE
AREA...AND EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S ALONG AND N OF THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL
OVER E TX/N LA...WITH SOME LOCALES LIKELY REACHING 90 DEGREES GIVEN
THE BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  71  92  72  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  88  69  91  70  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
DEQ  87  66  89  69  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
TXK  88  68  90  71  88 /  20  10  30  20  30
ELD  87  66  90  68  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
TYR  89  71  91  72  88 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  90  71  91  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  93  72  91  72  89 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 161517
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1017 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...THE MORNING SOUNDING CHECKED IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.26
INCHES, TRENDING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS AND A STANDARD DEVIATION
OVER THE CLIMO OF 1.7 INCHES. MOISTURE CONTINUES A FEED INTO THE
REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE ENTERING SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE BOTH THE NEWER GUIDANCE GFS AND THE 08Z EURO ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON HIGHER POPS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ONGOING, RAISED POPS
TO 60 PERCENT AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS LOWER
THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR INCLUDING OUR
TERMINALS OF BPT...LCH...LFT AND ARA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
FURTHER NORTH. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP BY MID/LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE POPS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GOOD MOISTURE PROFILE IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY AS 00Z LCH SOUNDING
IS GENERALLY MOIST ADIABATIC. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THIS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROGGED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I10
CORRIDOR.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S WITH RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  WITH PWATS STILL PROGGED NEAR 2 INCHES AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
DAYTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL TAPER
BACK POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO WEDGE
OVER AREA. ALSO PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

MODELS ARE FORECASTING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  SINCE THIS IS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...WILL
ONLY SHOW A SMALL DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
IF COOLER GFS VERIFIES...MAY SEE LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

MARINE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY BENIGN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOME AS
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THAT
TIME...WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. GRADIENT WILL
RELAX EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  73  88  73  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
KBPT  86  74  87  73  85 /  60  40  50  30  50
KAEX  87  71  90  71  88 /  60  20  30  20  30
KLFT  84  73  89  72  86 /  60  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








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