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000
FXUS64 KLCH 241618
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18z taf issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Intermittent MVFR to VFR ceilings will be possible this afternoon,
with CU layers ranging between 1800-3500ft. SE winds ~12-15 kts
across SE TX/SW LA, 8-10 kts for C and SC LA terminals. SHRA/TSRA
chances less than 20% for terminals, too low to mention in terminals.
This evening and overnight will see more prevailing MVFR ceilings,
intermittently going to IFR between 10-14z WED. MVFR ceilings and
SE winds 6-10 kts will prevail after 15z WED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 926 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...The previous forecast remains on target this morning and
no changes are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Sctd low clouds along with some CI were indicated on regional stlt
images. Conditions were VFR at TAF sites with the exception of
some patchy MVFR vsby reductions at AEX due to fog which should lift
by 14Z. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day. Sely
winds will increase to around 10 kt this aftn with a few gusts to
near 20 kt at BPT/AEX. Winds should diminish after sunset with low
clouds developing, resulting in possible MVFR cigs at BPT.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface map shows a high pressure system over the southeast US,
and this high is ridging over the Gulf South and into the forecast
area. The result is southeast flow off the Gulf producing humid
conditions. At the upper levels, a trough is located along the
east coast, and another trough along the Pacific coast, with a
ridge from central Mexico across the western Gulf and into the
forecast area. Some high level cloudiness is noted coming over
the top of the ridge and into the forecast area. Where skies are clear
and winds are light, patchy fog is forming, and fog should stay
patchy in nature for the remainder of the night.

For the remainder of the week, the surface high will continue over
the southeast US and ridge into the forecast area, keeping low
level flow off the Gulf of Mexico, with warm and humid
conditions. Rain chances will be dictated by upper level
conditions.

The upper level ridge will build across the forecast area today
and hold through Wednesday. A short wave, helping to produce MCS
along the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma again, will try
to cut into the ridge later today. However, main energy should
stay north of the forecast area. Will have slight chance pops for
this afternoon northwest of a Leesville to Sabine Pass line, where
moisture will be at its best for daytime heating to work on, and
where any influence of the short wave will occur. Activity that
happens to form will decrease with the loss of daytime heating in
the evening hours. With upper level ridge in place for Wednesday,
again will have just minimal pops for daytime heating hit and
mainly miss...type convection in the afternoon.

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east during the
Thursday to Saturday period, as upper level flow becomes more
southwest aloft, cutting into the ridge, as upper level low out
west moves into the southwest US by Thursday, then into the plains
for Friday/Saturday.

With lack of ridging and capping for Friday into Saturday, and
plenty of Gulf moisture, scattered showers and storms will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

As the upper level system moves off to the northeast and weakens
on Sunday, upper level ridging will again build in, helping to
decrease pops back to minimal levels.

Rua

MARINE...
High pressure at the surface is located over the southeastern US
and ridging westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and into
the coastal waters. This high will remain over that region for the
remainder of the week, and will keep onshore winds for the coastal
waters. A series of low pressure systems will develop over the
plains through the end of the week. Each system will help tighten
the gradient and increase wind speeds to at-least moderate levels.
Wind speeds look to be at their peak during the Thursday into
Friday period, and small craft exercise caution criteria may be
met for portions of the coastal waters on those days.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  86  75  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  87  73  88  73 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  86  76  86  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08



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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241154
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 24/12z TAFs, a weakening convective complex is moving
eastward along the Red River between OK and TX east of I-35. Some
of these storms may affect terminals north of I-30 in
SE OK/NE TX/SW AR. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible during the afternoon hours mainly northwest of a line
from Lufkin, TX, to Prescott, AR. Any convection that does develop
should dissipate by early evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Low stratus and patchy fog are leading to MVFR and IFR conditions
across much of the area south of I-20. Conditions should graduallyimprove
back into the VFR range by 24/15z. Moist southerly flow will
remain in place, which should allow another round of low stratus
and MVFR/IFR flight conditions to develop late in the TAF period.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Synoptic pattern to remain fairly unchanged through much of the
forecast period. An upper-ridge currently across the region is
forecast to migrate east over the next couple of days. With that,
southwest flow aloft to bring increased moisture across the
region with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected through the
early part of next week.

Weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft to allow for a daily
chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening hours
and specifically across the western half of the county warning
area where thunderstorms developing along a dry-line across
central Texas migrate eastward.

An upper-low across Southern California to shift east bringing
increased chances of strong thunderstorms across portions of East
Texas, Southwest Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma, and portions of
Northwest Louisiana on Friday evening. Drier conditions expected
through the weekend as weak upper-level ridging rebuilds across
the region. However, will maintain slight chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast period.

Otherwise,surface high pressure across the east coast to maintain
southerly flow throughout the forecast period with temperatures
ranging from highs in the 80s to lows around 70. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  72  87  73 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  89  70  89  72 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  84  69  85  71 /  50  40  20  20
TXK  85  71  86  72 /  40  40  20  20
ELD  87  70  87  72 /  20  20  20  20
TYR  86  72  87  74 /  30  40  20  10
GGG  86  72  87  73 /  30  40  20  10
LFK  88  73  88  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 241139
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
639 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
24/12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Sctd low clouds along with some CI were indicated on regional stlt
images. Conditions were VFR at TAF sites with the exception of
some patchy MVFR vsby reductions at AEX due to fog which should lift
by 14Z. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the day. Sely
winds will increase to around 10 kt this aftn with a few gusts to
near 20 kt at BPT/AEX. Winds should diminish after sunset with low
clouds developing, resulting in possible MVFR cigs at BPT.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface map shows a high pressure system over the southeast US,
and this high is ridging over the Gulf South and into the forecast
area. The result is southeast flow off the Gulf producing humid
conditions. At the upper levels, a trough is located along the
east coast, and another trough along the Pacific coast, with a
ridge from central Mexico across the western Gulf and into the
forecast area. Some high level cloudiness is noted coming over
the top of the ridge and into the forecast area. Where skies are clear
and winds are light, patchy fog is forming, and fog should stay
patchy in nature for the remainder of the night.

For the remainder of the week, the surface high will continue over
the southeast US and ridge into the forecast area, keeping low
level flow off the Gulf of Mexico, with warm and humid
conditions. Rain chances will be dictated by upper level
conditions.

The upper level ridge will build across the forecast area today
and hold through Wednesday. A short wave, helping to produce MCS
along the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma again, will try
to cut into the ridge later today. However, main energy should
stay north of the forecast area. Will have slight chance pops for
this afternoon northwest of a Leesville to Sabine Pass line, where
moisture will be at its best for daytime heating to work on, and
where any influence of the short wave will occur. Activity that
happens to form will decrease with the loss of daytime heating in
the evening hours. With upper level ridge in place for Wednesday,
again will have just minimal pops for daytime heating hit and
mainly miss...type convection in the afternoon.

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east during the
Thursday to Saturday period, as upper level flow becomes more
southwest aloft, cutting into the ridge, as upper level low out
west moves into the southwest US by Thursday, then into the plains
for Friday/Saturday.

With lack of ridging and capping for Friday into Saturday, and
plenty of Gulf moisture, scattered showers and storms will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

As the upper level system moves off to the northeast and weakens
on Sunday, upper level ridging will again build in, helping to
decrease pops back to minimal levels.

Rua

MARINE...
High pressure at the surface is located over the southeastern US
and ridging westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and into
the coastal waters. This high will remain over that region for the
remainder of the week, and will keep onshore winds for the coastal
waters. A series of low pressure systems will develop over the
plains through the end of the week. Each system will help tighten
the gradient and increase wind speeds to at-least moderate levels.
Wind speeds look to be at their peak during the Thursday into
Friday period, and small craft exercise caution criteria may be
met for portions of the coastal waters on those days.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  86  75  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  87  73  88  73 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  86  76  86  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KLIX 240855
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...
The nice days will continue on the dry side but the heat will
begin to increase by the weekend into next week.

There will be an isodrosothermal gradient with increasing values
oriented ne to sw today. This will be the only thing that would be
capable of producing anything in the way of rainfall. The reason
for the low confidence in actually getting rainfall over the nw
portion of the area will be two fold. The first will be due to the
wind orientation being from the se which will be parallel to the
moisture gradient and therefore no isentropic lift. The other will
be the sfc to mid level ridging found along the gulf coast
originating from the 1018mb high over the Carolinas. The strongest
subsident drying profile will be found where the ridging is
located. For these two very strong reasons...we have kept only a
10% pop for the nw portion of the area.

.LONG TERM...
This same scenario looks to play out for the majority of the week.
By the end of the work week...the troughing over central Tx will
move east just enough to increase our rain chances. This will be
dependant on what happens to the east coast high. Model trends
show it getting shoved a bit to the west due to a diturbance
moving into the east coast. If this is the case...the high and
associated ridging would deepen over the gulf coast possibly
keeping most activity from getting too far east. Will not make
many changes to the extended fcast at this time for these reasons.

&&

.AVIATION...

Seeing some reduced visibilities at KHUM this morning, mainly MVFR,
but occasionally IFR. Conditions should improve quickly after
sunrise. For the most part, expect VFR conditions to prevail through
the TAF period. Can`t rule out a little fog at the normally more
prone spots at KMCB and KHUM early Wednesday morning, but threat
probably not high enough to carry that far out in the forecast at
this time. 35

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the Carolinas has allowed onshore flow to return.
Expect winds for most of the coastal waters to be in the 10 to 15
knot range for much of the week. Could get up above 15 knots, mainly
over the western waters, on Friday. May need some Exercise Caution
headlines by Thursday night or Friday. With the persistent southeast
winds, a bit of swell may build up toward the end of the week. This
may also enhance tides, which will need to be monitored the second
half of the week. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  65  87  67 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  88  69  89  71 /  10  10  20  10
ASD  85  68  86  70 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  86  71  87  72 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  83  69  85  72 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  83  64  85  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 240826
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
326 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface map shows a high pressure system over the southeast US,
and this high is ridging over the Gulf South and into the forecast
area. The result is southeast flow off the Gulf producing humid
conditions. At the upper levels, a trough is located along the
east coast, and another trough along the Pacific coast, with a
ridge from central Mexico across the western Gulf and into the
forecast area. Some high level cloudiness is noted coming over
the top of the ridge and into the forecast area. Where skies are clear
and winds are light, patchy fog is forming, and fog should stay
patchy in nature for the remainder of the night.

For the remainder of the week, the surface high will continue over
the southeast US and ridge into the forecast area, keeping low
level flow off the Gulf of Mexico, with warm and humid
conditions. Rain chances will be dictated by upper level
conditions.

The upper level ridge will build across the forecast area today
and hold through Wednesday. A short wave, helping to produce MCS
along the Red River Valley of Texas and Oklahoma again, will try
to cut into the ridge later today. However, main energy should
stay north of the forecast area. Will have slight chance pops for
this afternoon northwest of a Leesville to Sabine Pass line, where
moisture will be at its best for daytime heating to work on, and
where any influence of the short wave will occur. Activity that
happens to form will decrease with the loss of daytime heating in
the evening hours. With upper level ridge in place for Wednesday,
again will have just minimal pops for daytime heating hit and
mainly miss...type convection in the afternoon.

Rain chances will begin to increase from west to east during the
Thursday to Saturday period, as upper level flow becomes more
southwest aloft, cutting into the ridge, as upper level low out
west moves into the southwest US by Thursday, then into the plains
for Friday/Saturday.

With lack of ridging and capping for Friday into Saturday, and
plenty of Gulf moisture, scattered showers and storms will be
possible, especially during the afternoon hours.

As the upper level system moves off to the northeast and weakens
on Sunday, upper level ridging will again build in, helping to
decrease pops back to minimal levels.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure at the surface is located over the southeastern US
and ridging westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and into
the coastal waters. This high will remain over that region for the
remainder of the week, and will keep onshore winds for the coastal
waters. A series of low pressure systems will develop over the
plains through the end of the week. Each system will help tighten
the gradient and increase wind speeds to at-least moderate levels.
Wind speeds look to be at their peak during the Thursday into
Friday period, and small craft exercise caution criteria may be
met for portions of the coastal waters on those days.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  72  89  73 /  10  10  20  10
LCH  86  75  86  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  87  73  88  73 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  86  76  86  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240723
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
223 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic pattern to remain fairly unchanged through much of the
forecast period. An upper-ridge currently across the region is
forecast to migrate east over the next couple of days. With that,
southwest flow aloft to bring increased moisture across the
region with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected through the
early part of next week.

Weak disturbances in southwest flow aloft to allow for a daily
chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the evening hours
and specifically across the western half of the county warning
area where thunderstorms developing along a dry-line across
central Texas migrate eastward.

An upper-low across Southern California to shift east bringing
increased chances of strong thunderstorms across portions of East
Texas, Southwest Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma, and portions of
Northwest Louisiana on Friday evening. Drier conditions expected
through the weekend as weak upper-level ridging rebuilds across
the region. However, will maintain slight chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast period.

Otherwise,surface high pressure across the east coast to maintain
southerly flow throughout the forecast period with temperatures
ranging from highs in the 80s to lows around 70. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  72  87  73 /  20  20  20  10
MLU  89  70  89  72 /   0  10  10  10
DEQ  84  69  85  71 /  50  40  20  20
TXK  85  71  86  72 /  40  40  20  20
ELD  87  70  87  72 /  20  20  20  20
TYR  86  72  87  74 /  30  40  20  10
GGG  86  72  87  73 /  30  40  20  10
LFK  88  73  88  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 240057
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
757 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

A well-mixed boundary layer extends from the surface up to about
5000 feet /850mb/ where a temperature inversion is noted. A very
dry layer of air is found above this inversion extending up to
about 15000 feet. Precipitable water is down by about a half an
inch from last evening to 0.85 inches. Winds throughout much of
the atmosphere are from the northwest or west with a peak wind
speed of 72 knots at 50800 feet.

00z balloon info: No issues with this evening`s flight that lasted
101 minutes and reached a height of 20.6 miles above the ground
bursting over Lake Borgne 26 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday)...

Upper pattern noted above should remain in place through mid
week, so deeper moisture will remain displaced to the west
allowing area to remain mostly dry through wed. Have kept
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the northwest
portion of the forecast area from Baton Rouge area into southwest
MS on Wednesday and Thursday as eastern edge of deeper moisture
edges slightly eastward as west coast trough moves slowly east.
Any convection expected to be limited and short lived. Temperatures
will generally be seasonable with overnight lows increasing a few
degrees by mid week as surface moisture increases.

LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...

West coast trough begins to move eastward in the later part of the
week, and lower level flow becomes more southeast and south. This
overall trend should allow deeper moisture from the western Gulf
and Texas to spread eastward over region. With the erosion of
upper ridge and progression of the western trough, showers and
thunderstorm activity should slowly increase late week and into
the weekend. Saturday appears to have the have highest
probability of convection, when the ridge is most suppressed, with
scattered afternoon convection expected. Seasonable temperatures
expected during the period. 21

AVIATION...
Relatively dry air mass should allow VFR conditions to
prevail through Tuesday.

MARINE...
Light to moderate east to southeast wind flow of around 10 to 15
knots should be rule through mid week. A slight increase in wind
speeds may expected Thursday through Saturday, especially west of
the MS River as gradient tightens as southern plains trough shifts
eastward. Small craft exercise headlines may be needed during this
time period. 21

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  86  63  87 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  66  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
ASD  61  86  65  87 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  69  86  71  88 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  65  84  69  86 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  57  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 240037
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
737 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, looking for a quiet night with some MVFR before
daybreak. Lead short wave on approach over dryline with parent
trough on the S CA coast moving East. Tonight`s wave of TSTMS is
modeled to nudge a boundary into our CWA with a chance for
afternoon convection on Tues. Until then, S/SE sfc winds of 5-10
kts will continue with higher daytime gusts. Aloft our SE flow is
shallow and quickly comes around to W/NW by 10kft at 10-30kts.
Outlook is for additional convection with approaching system. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon a weak disturbance across Eastern Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas was the second disturbance moving over parts of
the area producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the
overnight hours have lowered the chance of convection and will
pick back the chances for mainly the afternoon Tuesday as the
next in a series of ripples move through the continuous/upcoming
Southwest flow pattern aloft. These features will be moving into
the weak ridging of high pressure from the Northern Gulf of Mexico
into the Lower and parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. The
pattern of a trough/closed low out to the West and across the
Eastern parts of the country with a ridge of high pressure over
the Central and Southeast States into the Upper Midwest.
on the surface high pressure to the East of the Four State Region
will be providing low level moisture into the central parts of
the country while the Southwest flow around the base of the
Western upper trough/closed low will be providing added pacific
moisture. The combination of disturbances moving across the area
with afternoon heating, and low level moisture will be providing
enough instability and lift to provide overnight and early morning
cloudiness and mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. During
the late part of this work week, one of the better chances for a
round of strong to possible severe showers and thunderstorms will
occur as one of the closing upper lows swings over Southern
Colorado and the Pan Handles of Oklahoma and Texas, and Western
Kansas, and then out into the Central Plains with a trailing lobe
of energy into Oklahoma and Texas. This system will shift the high
pressure ridge aloft to the east allowing for the features aloft
to remain dominated by ripples around returning troughs/closed
lows over the Southwest sections of the country. The late half of
the weekend will be the drier days of the forecast in the extended
with rain chances ramping back up slightly during the start to
next week. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
Shwrs/tstms that moved into the region earlier this morning have
diminished, leaving only a few patchy areas of light rain.
However, development w of the region may move ewd and affect a few
of our terminals. Due to low confidence and minimal coverage of
convection, have left mention out of most sites. Some MVFR
stratus/fog may be possible during the overnight/early morning
hours but should lift/mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, expect
sly winds generally 5-10 kts through the pd. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  71  87 /  20  30  30  10
MLU  67  89  69  89 /  10  20  20  10
DEQ  67  84  68  86 /  30  30  40  20
TXK  68  85  69  86 /  20  40  40  20
ELD  66  87  68  87 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  70  86  71  87 /  20  40  30   0
GGG  69  86  71  87 /  10  40  40  10
LFK  71  88  72  88 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231800
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
Shwrs/tstms that moved into the region earlier this morning have
diminished, leaving only a few patchy areas of light rain.
However, development w of the region may move ewd and affect a few
of our terminals. Due to low confidence and minimal coverage of
convection, have left mention out of most sites. Some MVFR
stratus/fog may be possible during the overnight/early morning
hours but should lift/mix out by mid morning. Otherwise, expect
sly winds generally 5-10 kts through the pd. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have made a few adjustments to the forecast with regard to the
location of the expected rain from the current activity and
movement of disturbances moving over the region in the flow aloft.
HRRR model indicated the higher rain chances to shift east across
North Louisiana and South Arkansas from East and Northeast Texas.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex across southern Oklahoma contributing to
high clouds across the region this morning. High clouds should
dissipate later this morning with temperatures forecast to climb
into the mid 80s areawide.

Southwest flow aloft will provide for increased moisture across
the region through the work week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies to
prevail with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today
mainly across East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of
Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northwest Louisiana as weak
impulses translate northeast along mean flow.

An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen
into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek. The low
will shift east across the Texas Panhandle on Thursday night
allowing for increased instability across the Arklatex on Friday.
With sufficient moisture in place, some storms could become severe
on Friday.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue on Saturday and
Sunday.

Otherwise...light south to southeast winds to prevail through the
forecast period with high temperatures ranging from highs in the
80s to lows around 70 each day. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  70  87  73 /  30  10  30  30
MLU  86  67  87  69 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  83  67  83  69 /  30  30  40  40
TXK  85  68  84  70 /  30  20  30  30
ELD  85  66  86  69 /  30  10  30  30
TYR  85  71  86  73 /  30  20  30  30
GGG  86  69  85  72 /  30  20  30  30
LFK  86  71  86  73 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231740
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1240 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
18 taf issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions with possible intermittent MVFR ceilings
this afternoon for BPT/LCH. SE winds 10-13 KTS GUSTING ~20 KTS.
POPS too low to mention in terminals this afternoon. MVFR/IFR
ceilings more likely between 10-14z TUE. SE winds and similar
conditions expected after 15z TUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 927 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...A few very light showers are streaming into the coast of
Vermilion Parish, otherwise the area remains quiet this morning. A
few showers or storms will be possible mainly this afternoon and
across West/SW LA and SE TX. The forecast reasoning remains
generally this same from earlier and only a slight change in the
pops was needed this morning to include coastal Vermilion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Abundant high clouds continue to spread over the area while
SCT/BKN lower clouds have developed with MVFR cigs at BPT. Some
patchy fog was also noted at LCH, but this should lift by 14Z.
VFR conditions to prevail today with sctd CU/SC and SCT/BKN CI
over the area. A few SHRA will be possible this aftn but covg
should remain fairly minimal so opted to leave out mention at this
time. Winds will be sely around 10 KT, diminishing after sunset.
MVFR cigs will redevelop late tonight, mainly at BPT/LCH.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Extensive high level cloudiness is moving across the forecast area
this early morning, as convective debris blow off from activity in
Oklahoma and north Texas moving around an upper level ridge. With
stable conditions in the low levels and light winds, some patchy
fog/low clouds forming in places that saw rain yesterday. Despite
some increase in cloudiness, the 23/00z upper air sounding from
KLCH showed a considerable decrease in moisture, with PWAT less
than 1.3 inches and mid level RH less than 40 percent. Latest
integrated PWAT from area GPS-MET data confirms the moisture
decrease, with values between 1.1 and 1.2 inches, and with that,
area radars are void of shower activity.

Through the upcoming week, in the low levels, high pressure will
become established over the southeast US and ridge into the
forecast area. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems will
form over the plains. Therefore, southerly winds off the Gulf with a
warm, humid air mass found across the forecast area.

Rain chances will be mainly a factor of upper level features and
conditions, as upper level trough over the east coast will begin
to open up and move off to the east, allowing upper level from
northern old Mexico to begin to expand northeast across the
forecast area through mid week. Late in the week, upper level
trough over the western US will open up and move eastward,
breaking down the ridge.

With upper level ridge beginning to expand eastward, and progs
show moisture profiles do not really recover today, especially
over eastern sections, will go with just a slight chance of
showers and storms for the western portions of the forecast area.
Mainly from daytime heating, as CAPE values projected to be over
3000 j/kg, and also, any outflows from convection over north Texas
that may reach the region before daytime heating ends. As is
typical for this situation, any isolated activity that can break
the cap during max daytime heating, may be on the strong side.

Short wave originating from west coast trough is expected to brush
by the ridge on Tuesday, which may help spark off a few showers
and thunderstorms, again the best chance will be during max
daytime heating, and also over northwest portions of the forecast
area, which will be more likely to be influenced from the short
wave.

Upper level ridging looks to be at its strongest on Wednesday,
with limited convection from daytime heating. Rain chances will
then begin to increase as the ridge breaks down starting late
Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

Rua

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail for most of the
upcoming week...as high pressure becomes established along the
east coast and ridges into the region. Winds may increase late in
the week, as low pressure forms over the plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  87  71  89 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  72  85  74  87 /  10  20  10  10
LFT  70  86  72  88 /  10  20  10  10
BPT  74  86  75  87 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have made a few adjustments to the forecast with regard to the
location of the expected rain from the current activity and
movement of disturbances moving over the region in the flow aloft.
HRRR model indicated the higher rain chances to shift east across
North Louisiana and South Arkansas from East and Northeast Texas.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

AVIATION...
Vfr conditions with mostly cirrus clouds will prevail for most of
the day across the region. Some low mvfr to ocnl ifr decks
sneaking into ne tx in deep sw flow, and dense fog developing
around the KLFK terminals...with vsbys falling below 1/4 sm.
Outflow boundaries from stg bowing convection movg eastward along
and just south of red river valley, may result in sct aftn
redevelopment of tstms possibly affecting mainly KTYR,KGGG, and
KTXK portions of area this aftn. S-SE winds around 10 kts expected
this aftn. Deepening southerly flow may bring low clouds across a
greater portion of CWA after 24/08z. /vii/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex across southern Oklahoma contributing to
high clouds across the region this morning. High clouds should
dissipate later this morning with temperatures forecast to climb
into the mid 80s areawide.

Southwest flow aloft will provide for increased moisture across
the region through the work week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies to
prevail with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today
mainly across East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of
Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northwest Louisiana as weak
impulses translate northeast along mean flow.

An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen
into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek. The low
will shift east across the Texas Panhandle on Thursday night
allowing for increased instability across the Arklatex on Friday.
With sufficient moisture in place, some storms could become severe
on Friday.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue on Saturday and
Sunday.

Otherwise...light south to southeast winds to prevail through the
forecast period with high temperatures ranging from highs in the
80s to lows around 70 each day. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  70  87  73 /  30  10  30  30
MLU  86  67  87  69 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  83  67  83  69 /  30  30  40  40
TXK  85  68  84  70 /  30  20  30  30
ELD  85  66  86  69 /  30  10  30  30
TYR  85  71  86  73 /  30  20  30  30
GGG  86  69  85  72 /  30  20  30  30
LFK  86  71  86  73 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07/05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231427
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
927 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...A few very light showers are streaming into the coast of
Vermilion Parish, otherwise the area remains quiet this morning. A
few showers or storms will be possible mainly this afternoon and
across West/SW LA and SE TX. The forecast reasoning remains
generally this same from earlier and only a slight change in the
pops was needed this morning to include coastal Vermilion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Abundant high clouds continue to spread over the area while
SCT/BKN lower clouds have developed with MVFR cigs at BPT. Some
patchy fog was also noted at LCH, but this should lift by 14Z.
VFR conditions to prevail today with sctd CU/SC and SCT/BKN CI
over the area. A few SHRA will be possible this aftn but covg
should remain fairly minimal so opted to leave out mention at this
time. Winds will be sely around 10 KT, diminishing after sunset.
MVFR cigs will redevelop late tonight, mainly at BPT/LCH.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Extensive high level cloudiness is moving across the forecast area
this early morning, as convective debris blow off from activity in
Oklahoma and north Texas moving around an upper level ridge. With
stable conditions in the low levels and light winds, some patchy
fog/low clouds forming in places that saw rain yesterday. Despite
some increase in cloudiness, the 23/00z upper air sounding from
KLCH showed a considerable decrease in moisture, with PWAT less
than 1.3 inches and mid level RH less than 40 percent. Latest
integrated PWAT from area GPS-MET data confirms the moisture
decrease, with values between 1.1 and 1.2 inches, and with that,
area radars are void of shower activity.

Through the upcoming week, in the low levels, high pressure will
become established over the southeast US and ridge into the
forecast area. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems will
form over the plains. Therefore, southerly winds off the Gulf with a
warm, humid air mass found across the forecast area.

Rain chances will be mainly a factor of upper level features and
conditions, as upper level trough over the east coast will begin
to open up and move off to the east, allowing upper level from
northern old Mexico to begin to expand northeast across the
forecast area through mid week. Late in the week, upper level
trough over the western US will open up and move eastward,
breaking down the ridge.

With upper level ridge beginning to expand eastward, and progs
show moisture profiles do not really recover today, especially
over eastern sections, will go with just a slight chance of
showers and storms for the western portions of the forecast area.
Mainly from daytime heating, as CAPE values projected to be over
3000 j/kg, and also, any outflows from convection over north Texas
that may reach the region before daytime heating ends. As is
typical for this situation, any isolated activity that can break
the cap during max daytime heating, may be on the strong side.

Short wave originating from west coast trough is expected to brush
by the ridge on Tuesday, which may help spark off a few showers
and thunderstorms, again the best chance will be during max
daytime heating, and also over northwest portions of the forecast
area, which will be more likely to be influenced from the short
wave.

Upper level ridging looks to be at its strongest on Wednesday,
with limited convection from daytime heating. Rain chances will
then begin to increase as the ridge breaks down starting late
Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

Rua

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail for most of the
upcoming week...as high pressure becomes established along the
east coast and ridges into the region. Winds may increase late in
the week, as low pressure forms over the plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  69  87  71 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  85  72  85  74 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05




000
FXUS64 KLCH 231140
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
640 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
23/12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Abundant high clouds continue to spread over the area while
SCT/BKN lower clouds have developed with MVFR cigs at BPT. Some
patchy fog was also noted at LCH, but this should lift by 14Z.
VFR conditions to prevail today with sctd CU/SC and SCT/BKN CI
over the area. A few SHRA will be possible this aftn but covg
should remain fairly minimal so opted to leave out mention at this
time. Winds will be sely around 10 KT, diminishing after sunset.
MVFR cigs will redevelop late tonight, mainly at BPT/LCH.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Extensive high level cloudiness is moving across the forecast area
this early morning, as convective debris blow off from activity in
Oklahoma and north Texas moving around an upper level ridge. With
stable conditions in the low levels and light winds, some patchy
fog/low clouds forming in places that saw rain yesterday. Despite
some increase in cloudiness, the 23/00z upper air sounding from
KLCH showed a considerable decrease in moisture, with PWAT less
than 1.3 inches and mid level RH less than 40 percent. Latest
integrated PWAT from area GPS-MET data confirms the moisture
decrease, with values between 1.1 and 1.2 inches, and with that,
area radars are void of shower activity.

Through the upcoming week, in the low levels, high pressure will
become established over the southeast US and ridge into the
forecast area. Meanwhile, a series of low pressure systems will
form over the plains. Therefore, southerly winds off the Gulf with a
warm, humid air mass found across the forecast area.

Rain chances will be mainly a factor of upper level features and
conditions, as upper level trough over the east coast will begin
to open up and move off to the east, allowing upper level from
northern old Mexico to begin to expand northeast across the
forecast area through mid week. Late in the week, upper level
trough over the western US will open up and move eastward,
breaking down the ridge.

With upper level ridge beginning to expand eastward, and progs
show moisture profiles do not really recover today, especially
over eastern sections, will go with just a slight chance of
showers and storms for the western portions of the forecast area.
Mainly from daytime heating, as CAPE values projected to be over
3000 j/kg, and also, any outflows from convection over north Texas
that may reach the region before daytime heating ends. As is
typical for this situation, any isolated activity that can break
the cap during max daytime heating, may be on the strong side.

Short wave originating from west coast trough is expected to brush
by the ridge on Tuesday, which may help spark off a few showers
and thunderstorms, again the best chance will be during max
daytime heating, and also over northwest portions of the forecast
area, which will be more likely to be influenced from the short
wave.

Upper level ridging looks to be at its strongest on Wednesday,
with limited convection from daytime heating. Rain chances will
then begin to increase as the ridge breaks down starting late
Thursday into Friday and Saturday.

Rua

MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail for most of the
upcoming week...as high pressure becomes established along the
east coast and ridges into the region. Winds may increase late in
the week, as low pressure forms over the plains.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  69  87  71 /  20  10  20  10
LCH  85  72  85  74 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  87  70  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  85  74  86  75 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...24




000
FXUS64 KSHV 231025
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
525 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.AVIATION...
Vfr conditions with mostly cirrus clouds will prevail for most of
the day across the region. Some low mvfr to ocnl ifr decks
sneaking into ne tx in deep sw flow, and dense fog developing
around the KLFK terminals...with vsbys falling below 1/4 sm.
Outflow boundaries from stg bowing convection movg eastward along
and just south of red river valley, may result in sct aftn
redevelopment of tstms possibly affecting mainly KTYR,KGGG, and
KTXK portions of area this aftn. S-SE winds around 10 kts expected
this aftn. Deepening southerly flow may bring low clouds across a
greater portion of CWA after 24/08z./vii/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex across southern Oklahoma contributing to
high clouds across the region this morning. High clouds should
dissipate later this morning with temperatures forecast to climb
into the mid 80s areawide.

Southwest flow aloft will provide for increased moisture across
the region through the work week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies to
prevail with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today
mainly across East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of
Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northwest Louisiana as weak
impulses translate northeast along mean flow.

An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen
into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek. The low
will shift east across the Texas Panhandle on Thursday night
allowing for increased instability across the Arklatex on Friday.
With sufficient moisture in place, some storms could become severe
on Friday.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue on Saturday and
Sunday.

Otherwise...light south to southeast winds to prevail through the
forecast period with high temperatures ranging from highs in the
80s to lows around 70 each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  70  87  73 /  20  10  30  30
MLU  86  67  87  69 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  83  67  83  69 /  20  30  40  40
TXK  85  68  84  70 /  20  20  30  30
ELD  85  66  86  69 /  20  10  30  30
TYR  86  71  86  73 /  30  20  30  30
GGG  85  69  85  72 /  30  20  30  30
LFK  86  71  86  73 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230737
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
237 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex across southern Oklahoma contributing to
high clouds across the region this morning. High clouds should
dissipate later this morning with temperatures forecast to climb
into the mid 80s areawide.

Southwest flow aloft will provide for increased moisture across
the region through the work week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies to
prevail with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms today
mainly across East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, portions of
Southwest Arkansas and portions of Northwest Louisiana as weak
impulses translate northeast along mean flow.

An upper-trough across the west coast will swing east and deepen
into a closed low across the desert southwest by midweek. The low
will shift east across the Texas Panhandle on Thursday night
allowing for increased instability across the Arklatex on Friday.
With sufficient moisture in place, some storms could become severe
on Friday.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms to continue on Saturday and
Sunday.

Otherwise...light south to southeast winds to prevail through the
forecast period with high temperatures ranging from highs in the
80s to lows around 70 each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  70  87  73 /  20  10  30  30
MLU  86  67  87  69 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  83  67  83  69 /  20  30  40  40
TXK  85  68  84  70 /  20  20  30  30
ELD  85  66  86  69 /  20  10  30  30
TYR  86  71  86  73 /  30  20  30  30
GGG  85  69  85  72 /  30  20  30  30
LFK  86  71  86  73 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230500
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1200 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, high pressure over AR is drying the air from NE
to SW. Overnight cirrus from TSTMS in W OK/TX will thicken
overhead. Toward daybreak some brief BR may crop up, but overall
another Chamber day to start the week. S/SE winds will lift in as
the high slowly exits stage right. Aloft, we still have 5-6kft
deep of light Ely winds 10-20kts and then back to NW/W 20-40kts on
up. This time tomorrow SE flow will deepen to 12kft under the NW
flow. Outlook is for increasing coverage of late day convection
each day into this new work week...some nocturnal too. /24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1014 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Decided to lower Dew points and Min temperatures across SW Arkansas,
North Louisiana, and Central Louisiana...as drier air and cooler
temperatures have moved into those areas. Other than that, the
rest of the forecast looks on track for the overnight period.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 60s tonight across
the region...with possible upper 50s across portions of SW
Arkansas and NE Louisiana. Cirrus from Tstms across western
Oklahoma/Texas will move into the western half of the region
during the overnight period, which will keep lows in the upper 60s
across portions of East Texas. Winds will remain out of the ESE
near 5 mph. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern expected late this week and through
much of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...

The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging
aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
This ridging should only support widely sct shower tstm development
through Wednesday.

by Thursday...a seasonably strong negative tilt shortwave will eject
from sw to ne from nm with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through Friday morning. Accordingly expect some storms to
become severe although the storm threat details are too far in the
future to forecast at this time.

Active weather remains in the forecast for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend of May with severe weather and heavy rainfall quite possible.
These threats will be better defined later this final week of May.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  70  87 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  61  85  67  88 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  62  82  67  83 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  63  83  68  85 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  58  84  66  86 /  10  20  20  30
TYR  68  85  71  85 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  67  84  69  86 /  10  30  20  30
LFK  68  85  70  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/20/08




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230314
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1014 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Decided to lower Dew points and Min temperatures across SW Arkansas,
North Louisiana, and Central Louisiana...as drier air and cooler
temperatures have moved into those areas. Other than that, the
rest of the forecast looks on track for the overnight period.
Overnight low temperatures will fall into the 60s tonight across
the region...with possible upper 50s across portions of SW
Arkansas and NE Louisiana. Cirrus from Tstms across western
Oklahoma/Texas will move into the western half of the region
during the overnight period, which will keep lows in the upper 60s
across portions of East Texas. Winds will remain out of the ESE
near 5 mph. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, high pressure over AR is drying the air from NE
to SW. SCT cumulus is moving Westward. Overnight SKC to start
will give way to cirrus from TSTMS now in W OK/TX. Toward
daybreak some brief BR may crop up, but overall another Chamber
day to start the week. S/SE winds will lift in as the high slowly
exits stage right. Aloft, we still have 5-6kft deep of light Ely
winds 10-20kts and then back to NW/W 20-40kts on up. This time
tomorrow SE flow will deepen to 12kft under the NW flow. Outlook
is for increasing coverage of late day convection all week. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

.An active weather pattern expected late this week and through
much of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...

The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging
aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
This ridging should only support widely sct shower tstm development
through Wednesday.

by Thursday...a seasonably strong negative tilt shortwave will eject
from sw to ne from nm with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through Friday morning. Accordingly expect some storms to
become severe although the storm threat details are too far in the
future to forecast at this time.

Active weather remains in the forecast for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend of May with severe weather and heavy rainfall quite possible.
These threats will be better defined later this final week of May.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  70  87 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  61  85  67  88 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  62  82  67  83 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  63  83  68  85 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  58  84  66  86 /  10  20  20  30
TYR  68  85  71  85 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  67  84  69  86 /  10  30  20  30
LFK  68  85  70  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KLCH 230224
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
924 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on target. No update planned this evening.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

AVIATION...Radar clear of any precip this evening and should
remain the case through the night. Satellite showing some
scattered to occasional broken cu that will gradually be
dissipating. VFR expected to continue. Could see a few afternoon
thunderstorms in the vicinity of BPT and LCH Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds today has help keep temperatures in check a bit as morning
storms push deeper into the gulf. East to northeast for most of
the day will taper off towards sunset. Surface high is continuing
to build down from the Appalachians and looks to remain anchor
over the southern Appalachians through midweek... the frontal
boundary that has brought us so much rain finally washout tomorrow.

This will put the region into the summertime pattern with a slight
chance of an afternoon storm or two and temperatures in the upper
80s with a few mid 80s around the region.

Storms look to return towards the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  86  68  87 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  69  84  71  85 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  69  86  70  86 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  71  85  73  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 230012
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
712 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, high pressure over AR is drying the air from NE
to SW. SCT cumulus is moving Westward. Overnight SKC to start
will give way to cirrus from TSTMS now in W OK/TX. Toward
daybreak some brief BR may crop up, but overall another Chamber
day to start the week. S/SE winds will lift in as the high slowly
exits stage right. Aloft, we still have 5-6kft deep of light Ely
winds 10-20kts and then back to NW/W 20-40kts on up. This time
tomorrow SE flow will deepen to 12kft under the NW flow. Outlook
is for increasing coverage of late day convection all week. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..An active weather pattern expected late this week and through
much of the Memorial Day Holiday weekend...

The forecast area remains under the influence of weak ridging
aloft between long wave troughs over both wrn and ern North America.
This ridging should only support widely sct shower tstm development
through Wednesday.

by Thursday...a seasonably strong negative tilt shortwave will eject
from sw to ne from nm with sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected through Friday morning. Accordingly expect some storms to
become severe although the storm threat details are too far in the
future to forecast at this time.

Active weather remains in the forecast for the Memorial Day holiday
weekend of May with severe weather and heavy rainfall quite possible.
These threats will be better defined later this final week of May.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  85  70  87 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  62  85  67  88 /  10  20  20  30
DEQ  62  82  67  83 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  63  83  68  85 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  60  84  66  86 /  10  20  20  30
TYR  68  85  71  85 /  20  30  20  30
GGG  67  84  69  86 /  10  30  20  30
LFK  68  85  70  86 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 222344
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
644 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...Radar clear of any precip this evening and should
remain the case through the night. Satellite showing some
scattered to occasional broken cu that will gradually be
dissipating. VFR expected to continue. Could see a few afternoon
thunderstorms in the vicinity of BPT and LCH Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds today has help keep temperatures in check a bit as morning
storms push deeper into the gulf. East to northeast for most of
the day will taper off towards sunset. Surface high is continuing
to build down from the Appalachians and looks to remain anchor
over the southern Appalachians through midweek... the frontal
boundary that has brought us so much rain finally washout tomorrow.

This will put the region into the summertime pattern with a slight
chance of an afternoon storm or two and temperatures in the upper
80s with a few mid 80s around the region.

Storms look to return towards the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  86  68  87 /  10  20  10  20
LCH  69  84  71  85 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  69  86  70  86 /  10  20  10  20
BPT  71  85  73  86 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23




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