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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210935
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
435 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER NCNTRL LA...WHICH IS ALONG A ELEVATED WEAK SHEAR AXIS NOTED ON
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP EXTENDING FROM SE TX ACROSS NCNTRL LA INTO CNTRL
MS/NRN AL. THIS FEATURE HAS MAINTAINED AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY THIS
MORNING OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...WHICH ARE THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF
THE ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK UPPER LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP
NOW AFFECTING THE ERN MX COAST S OF BRO HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW WHICH HAS LED TO INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A W TO E SFC TROUGH WHICH LIES NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING/STREAMING N ACROSS SW
LA...BUT HAVE WEAKENED WHERE SFC CONVERGENCE IS LOST FARTHER N OF THE
SFC TROUGH. THE PROGS DO WEAKEN THE VORT MAX LATER TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NNW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WHERE SEABREEZE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE SRN ZONES MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE SSW
850-700MB FLOW...THE SEABREEZE SHOULD NOT PUSH AS FAR N ACROSS E TX/NW
LA AS IT HAS IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THE HRRR AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION COULD PUSH FARTHER NNE ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER N INTO
LINCOLN/UNION/OUACHITA PARISHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT A
STABILIZING BNDRY LYR FROM THE LOSS OF HEATING RESULTS IN THE QUICK
DISSIPATION OF THE CONVECTION. DID ALSO INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...WHERE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BNDRYS THAT WILL
FOCUS MORE SCT DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WHEN PEAK HEATING IS REACHED.
WITH THE AC SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON...AND THE MORNING
LOW STRATUS QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MORNING...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED WEDNESDAY.

THE HEAT IS ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE RESIDES IN VC OF OUR REGION OVER LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE 700MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN AR
SUNDAY...AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE OVER ERN LA/SE AR SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK...BUT RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HEAT
INDICES SUCH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NCNTRL
LA/S AR THIS WEEKEND. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAVMOS THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS WARM BIAS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE PROGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER FARTHER NE INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE EXTREME HEAT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ITS GRIP ON OUR
AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE GRADUAL...UNTIL WEAKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE
CENTER ARE ABLE TO MIGRATE W ACROSS MS/SE LA MONDAY...WHICH MAY TOUCH
OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX. WITH THESE
WEAKNESSES NUDGING CLOSER TO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY...MORE IN THE WAY
OF SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE FARTHER W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING AN UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY SHIFTING
E ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF REMAINS STOUT WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER ACTUALLY RETROGRADING W BACK ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE /IF ANY AT ALL/ BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE KEEPING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  97  74  98 /   5   5   0   0   0
MLU  94  73  96  73  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
DEQ  94  72  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  95  74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  97  75  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  74  97 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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000
FXUS64 KLIX 210833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EVNG WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPS COOLED
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY 7Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S.

FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG MID
LVL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO ISLTD AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AFTN HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND WE
COULD SEE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN SWRN MS. H925 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 28 AND POSSIBLY
29C BY SUN AND THIS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC COULD PUSH TEMPS TWRDS
THE CENTURY MARK IN ISLTD LOCATIONS. AS FOR HEAT ISSUES...THE HEAT
INDEX DOESNT GET OUT OF HAND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTN HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
106 DEGREES. COMBINE THAT WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER
70S SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAT.
AGAIN THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE N.O. METRO WHERE LOWS COULD HOVER
AROUND 80 SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
LVL PATTERN TO START THE WEEK BUT BY TUE NIGHT/WED THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION MON AND INTO TUE BUT WITH THE CNTR OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ON MON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD GET INTO THE ERLYS WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATE MON. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADING IT
BACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE GFS ON THE HAND IS
DRIVING A STRONG S/W INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN
PROTAGONIST IS STRONG PAC NW ENERGY DIVING SSE MON. THE ECMWF DRIVES
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BY TUE MORNING CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS
DOESNT DIVE THE ENERGY AS FAR SOUTH AND INSTEAD BRINGS A STRONG
S/W INTO PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING PINCHED OVER
THE APPLACHIANS WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. THE
ECMWF SOLN WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND RATHER LOW END
POPS...15-20%. THE GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
CLOSER TO 30-40%. WITH THE MDLS REALLY STRUGGLING WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS FOR WED AND THU BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS ALONG COASTLINE SHOULD BE STRONGER
MEANWHILE...WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. BY
EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WAVES
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  94  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EVNG WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPS COOLED
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY 7Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S.

FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG MID
LVL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO ISLTD AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AFTN HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND WE
COULD SEE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN SWRN MS. H925 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 28 AND POSSIBLY
29C BY SUN AND THIS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC COULD PUSH TEMPS TWRDS
THE CENTURY MARK IN ISLTD LOCATIONS. AS FOR HEAT ISSUES...THE HEAT
INDEX DOESNT GET OUT OF HAND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTN HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
106 DEGREES. COMBINE THAT WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER
70S SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAT.
AGAIN THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE N.O. METRO WHERE LOWS COULD HOVER
AROUND 80 SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
LVL PATTERN TO START THE WEEK BUT BY TUE NIGHT/WED THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION MON AND INTO TUE BUT WITH THE CNTR OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ON MON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD GET INTO THE ERLYS WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATE MON. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADING IT
BACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE GFS ON THE HAND IS
DRIVING A STRONG S/W INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN
PROTAGONIST IS STRONG PAC NW ENERGY DIVING SSE MON. THE ECMWF DRIVES
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BY TUE MORNING CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS
DOESNT DIVE THE ENERGY AS FAR SOUTH AND INSTEAD BRINGS A STRONG
S/W INTO PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING PINCHED OVER
THE APPLACHIANS WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. THE
ECMWF SOLN WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND RATHER LOW END
POPS...15-20%. THE GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
CLOSER TO 30-40%. WITH THE MDLS REALLY STRUGGLING WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS FOR WED AND THU BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS ALONG COASTLINE SHOULD BE STRONGER
MEANWHILE...WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. BY
EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WAVES
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  94  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EVNG WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPS COOLED
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY 7Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S.

FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG MID
LVL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO ISLTD AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AFTN HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND WE
COULD SEE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN SWRN MS. H925 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 28 AND POSSIBLY
29C BY SUN AND THIS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC COULD PUSH TEMPS TWRDS
THE CENTURY MARK IN ISLTD LOCATIONS. AS FOR HEAT ISSUES...THE HEAT
INDEX DOESNT GET OUT OF HAND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTN HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
106 DEGREES. COMBINE THAT WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER
70S SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAT.
AGAIN THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE N.O. METRO WHERE LOWS COULD HOVER
AROUND 80 SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
LVL PATTERN TO START THE WEEK BUT BY TUE NIGHT/WED THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION MON AND INTO TUE BUT WITH THE CNTR OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ON MON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD GET INTO THE ERLYS WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATE MON. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADING IT
BACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE GFS ON THE HAND IS
DRIVING A STRONG S/W INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN
PROTAGONIST IS STRONG PAC NW ENERGY DIVING SSE MON. THE ECMWF DRIVES
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BY TUE MORNING CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS
DOESNT DIVE THE ENERGY AS FAR SOUTH AND INSTEAD BRINGS A STRONG
S/W INTO PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING PINCHED OVER
THE APPLACHIANS WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. THE
ECMWF SOLN WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND RATHER LOW END
POPS...15-20%. THE GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
CLOSER TO 30-40%. WITH THE MDLS REALLY STRUGGLING WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS FOR WED AND THU BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS ALONG COASTLINE SHOULD BE STRONGER
MEANWHILE...WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. BY
EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WAVES
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  94  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210833
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATED IN THE EVNG WITH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT TEMPS COOLED
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY 7Z WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S.

FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND
WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. STRONG MID
LVL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING
CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA BUT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS SEABREEZE
INTERACTIONS WILL MOST LIKELY LEAD TO ISLTD AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES AFTN HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY WARM UP A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND WE
COULD SEE NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
100 DEGREES IN SWRN MS. H925 TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 28 AND POSSIBLY
29C BY SUN AND THIS MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC COULD PUSH TEMPS TWRDS
THE CENTURY MARK IN ISLTD LOCATIONS. AS FOR HEAT ISSUES...THE HEAT
INDEX DOESNT GET OUT OF HAND AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. AFTN HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT AROUND
106 DEGREES. COMBINE THAT WITH MORNING LOWS LIKELY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10 AND IN THE UPPER
70S SOUTH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THE HEAT.
AGAIN THE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE N.O. METRO WHERE LOWS COULD HOVER
AROUND 80 SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MID
LVL PATTERN TO START THE WEEK BUT BY TUE NIGHT/WED THEY DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATTERN. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION MON AND INTO TUE BUT WITH THE CNTR OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ON MON THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD GET INTO THE ERLYS WITH A WEAK WAVE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
LATE MON. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MON NIGHT.

TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE MDLS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE AND RETROGRADING IT
BACK TO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE GFS ON THE HAND IS
DRIVING A STRONG S/W INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN
PROTAGONIST IS STRONG PAC NW ENERGY DIVING SSE MON. THE ECMWF DRIVES
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND BY TUE MORNING CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER NRN
CALIFORNIA WITH THE RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE GFS
DOESNT DIVE THE ENERGY AS FAR SOUTH AND INSTEAD BRINGS A STRONG
S/W INTO PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING PINCHED OVER
THE APPLACHIANS WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE CWA. THE
ECMWF SOLN WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM TEMPS AND RATHER LOW END
POPS...15-20%. THE GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
CLOSER TO 30-40%. WITH THE MDLS REALLY STRUGGLING WE WILL CONTINUE
TO USE A BLEND OF THE MDLS FOR WED AND THU BUT SHOW A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR YOUR TROPICAL UPDATE...THE MDLS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
THE WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE 7Z TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC IS STILL CALLING FOR A 70% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT IT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND THE MDLS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT WHAT...IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS MAY STAY WELL EAST OF
THE AREA AND IN THE ATLANTIC. WITH NO SYSTEM HAVING EVEN DEVELOPED
YET THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ACCURATELY TELL WHERE
AN EVENUTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD GO...LETS AT LEAST SEE IF IT
DEVELOPS FIRST. AS ALWAYS ITS APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE
SEASON AN WITH OUR AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST WE SHOULD ALWAYS
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST IN THE TROPICS. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. NOCTURNAL WINDS ALONG COASTLINE SHOULD BE STRONGER
MEANWHILE...WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. BY
EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND WILL INCREASE TO THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE EASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD NEXT WEEK WAVES
SHOULD CLIMB TO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  93  74 /  20  10  20  10
BTR  95  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
ASD  94  76  94  76 /  10  10  20  10
MSY  93  78  94  78 /  20  10  20  10
GPT  94  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  94  75  95  74 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 210800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING NOCTURNAL SHRA
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS S LA TOWARDS THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

SEEM TO BE STUCK IN A PATTERN WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA...DESPITE BEING
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. THUS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM...WHICH SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THIS REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET.

STILL EXPECTING PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES. THUS...DIDN`T MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IF ANY TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. THUS...MINIMAL PRECI CHANCES FRI-SUN...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH
MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF I-10.

INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GULF WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE
AGAIN MON-WED...THUS DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
GOING 20% MON & 30% TUE-WED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. ISO SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH DIMINISHED CHANCES
FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INHIBITS MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  78  94  76  94 /  30  10  20  10  10
KBPT  93  78  94  77  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
KAEX  96  75  97  74  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
KLFT  94  76  95  76  95 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWARD... ALSO SEVERAL SITES
NOTING CLOUDS AROUND 025 OTHERWISE VFR WX TO HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  77  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  93  77  94  77  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KAEX  95  75  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  93  76  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 210541
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1241 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE GULF MOVING NORTHWARD... ALSO SEVERAL SITES
NOTING CLOUDS AROUND 025 OTHERWISE VFR WX TO HOLD THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMET WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  94  77  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KBPT  93  77  94  77  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
KAEX  95  75  96  74  96 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  93  76  94  76  94 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 210446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  76  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 210446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX TOWARD SUNRISE AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID DAY. THIS MAY LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS NEAR
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND AT SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  76  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210443
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1143 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE
PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHT`S MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KLIX 210426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  77  94  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  77  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 210426
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  77  94  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  77  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210252
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHTS MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 210252
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO REMOVE THE
MENTION OF RAIN WHICH WAS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE CONVECTION DID LOWER TEMPS IN SOME AREAS TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA INTO ADJACENT DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY NUMBERS FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND LOWERED
TONIGHTS MINS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE NATCHITOCHES AREA.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  76  96  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 210104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 210104
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
804 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...WITH SOME
TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/BR POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLD TO SCT SEA BREEZE TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLFK LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY...BUT WILL NOT MAKE MENTION IN
THE TAFS THIS PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLY WINDS 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THE PD. /12/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 202347
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014



.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER
THESE WILL BE DECAYING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. KEPT VCTS
THROUGH 2Z. PATCHY AND MOSTLY THIN FOG CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR KAEX
TOWARD MORNING, HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  94  77  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  10  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  10  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 202036
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SEABREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BATON ROUGE
METRO AND RIVER PARISHES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WANES THE CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...A STRONG 595 H5 RIDGE
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S. FORTUNATELY...THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP HEAT INDICES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED GIVEN THE COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
ALSO KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOWN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. ALONG AND BELOW THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THE PROSPECT
OF SEABREEZE INDUCED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. HAVE KEPT IN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FROM A 594 H5 RIDGE ON
SATURDAY TO A 590 H5 RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT WILL
TAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EVERY DAY. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND
OVERALL HUMIDITY THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
MOST LIKELY PLACES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A WEAK MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL BE
CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE
SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. HEADING INTO EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND INCREASED IN SPEED...WAVES WILL RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  77  94  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  77  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLIX 202036
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SEABREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BATON ROUGE
METRO AND RIVER PARISHES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
DAYTIME HEATING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY WANES THE CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR.

HEADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...A STRONG 595 H5 RIDGE
WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND BRING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S. FORTUNATELY...THERE WILL
BE SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP HEAT INDICES SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. HEAT INDEX READINGS SHOULD
RISE TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH DAY...BUT HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED GIVEN THE COOLING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
ALSO KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES DOWN NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. ALONG AND BELOW THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THE PROSPECT
OF SEABREEZE INDUCED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. HAVE KEPT IN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THESE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FROM A 594 H5 RIDGE ON
SATURDAY TO A 590 H5 RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE GULF SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT WILL
TAKE VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION EVERY DAY. HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS IN
THE LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND
OVERALL HUMIDITY THE HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 100S EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT A FEW
OF THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY OR TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
MOST LIKELY PLACES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS
SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE INTERACTIONS DOMINATE THE NEARSHORE
WATERS. WINDS WILL TEND TO MAXIMIZE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A WEAK MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS WILL BE
CONSISTENT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHERE THE
SEABREEZE IS LESS DOMINANT. HEADING INTO EARLY WEEK...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AS THE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
AND INCREASED IN SPEED...WAVES WILL RISE TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  76  96  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  77  94  76  96 /  10  10  10  20
MSY  77  94  77  94 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  77  95  77  96 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  95  75  96 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLCH 202013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  94  77  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 202013
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
313 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING. INITIAL NORTHERN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABEEZE...
NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
BELIEVE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS
MORE A RESULT OF NORTHWEST GULF SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHWARD.
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THIS
FEATURE IN PLAY.

FOR THURSDAY...ANTICYCLONE AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WESTWARD. DOES APPEAR THAT ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLAY TO HOLD ONTO SOME POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LOW.

ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO PLUMMETT WELL BELOW 1.5
INCHES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WITH SHARPLY DRIER AIR RETURNING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. HENCE RAIN CHANCES NEAR NIL. WILL
HOWEVER MAINTAIN OUR LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY
ON THE HIGH SIDE...WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES REACHING FROM 100 TO
105.

BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
WITH APPROACH OF IMPULSES FROM THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  94  77  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10
KBPT  78  93  77  94  77 /  30  30  10  10  10
KAEX  75  95  75  96  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
KLFT  77  93  76  94  76 /  30  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201949
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA TO BRING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE MID 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
BE LOWER THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

UPPER-RIDGE TO BRING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST TRENDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS INDICATE THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
REMAINED BELOW CRITERIA DUE TO SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND HELD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY BASED ON TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT VALUES NOT VARYING
SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS TO GENERATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES THAT WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S AREAWIDE. COULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  74  95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  93  71  95  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  95  73  96  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  76  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  75  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  77  96  76  97  74 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201748
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 20/18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NWD INTO DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
AFFECTING KLFK. SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD TOWARDS
I-20 BUT COVERAGE FARTHER N IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW MAY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AFTER 21/08Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
I-20. CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY 21/15Z AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES AND
SWLY SFC WINDS RESUME BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 201620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 201620
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1005 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. DEEP EAST TEXAS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA MAY EXPERIENCE SEA-BREEZE
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HEAT INDEX VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOW-LEVEL MIXING BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 201131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH A FEW
TERMINALS WITH IN AND OUT MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BRISK
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW 15-30KTS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SE 5KTS OR LESS NOW AND LESS THAN
10KTS DURING HEATING. ALOFT...N WINDS WILL KEEP ANVILS BACK OVER
RAIN AREAS...SO A GOOD SEA BREEZE LIKELY TODAY...PUSHING TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO I-20 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF
KGLS WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OFF SHORE ALREADY SET TO MOVE INLAND EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KSHV 201131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A QUIET START TO THE DAY WITH A FEW
TERMINALS WITH IN AND OUT MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A BRISK
LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SW 15-30KTS IN THE FIRST FEW THOUSAND
FEET. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SE 5KTS OR LESS NOW AND LESS THAN
10KTS DURING HEATING. ALOFT...N WINDS WILL KEEP ANVILS BACK OVER
RAIN AREAS...SO A GOOD SEA BREEZE LIKELY TODAY...PUSHING TSTM
ACTIVITY INTO I-20 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW S OF
KGLS WITH NUMEROUS STORMS OFF SHORE ALREADY SET TO MOVE INLAND EARLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 200909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 200904
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  40  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT WAS ANOTHER QUIET YET
WARM ONE. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON THE SCOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT WAS TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS MAY BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT TEMPS DID DROP MUCH FASTER
DURING THE EVNG HRS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE MID 70S BY 7Z.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED AND BY FRI
A 594DM RIDGE WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LAST FEW FCST THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS AND WARMER
TEMPS...AND MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON. FIRST FOR TSRA CHANCES...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
WHILE WARMING LOW AND MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO A CAP. ALL OF THIS WILL
HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CONVECTION. THAT SAID CANT RULE OUT ISLTD
TO WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SELA COAST WHERE
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINE WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN
THAT RESPECT AND IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI.
H925 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 28-29C AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO UPPER 90S ON
THOSE DAYS. AS FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF A HEAT ADV IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD COOL OFF IN
MOST PLACES TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE
CITY WHERE LOWS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 70S. AFTN
HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S. SO WITH THAT SAID IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM AND OPPRESSIVE IN THE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE MDLS DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FALLS OUT OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE
THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK ERLYS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY
TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY IF THERE
IS ANY CHANGE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD BUT RATHER DO
AN UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  94  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  93  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200820
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IT WAS ANOTHER QUIET YET
WARM ONE. NO CONVECTION WAS NOTED ON THE SCOPE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TONIGHT FROM LAST NIGHT WAS TEMPS.
MORNING LOWS MAY BE QUITE SIMILAR BUT TEMPS DID DROP MUCH FASTER
DURING THE EVNG HRS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE MID 70S BY 7Z.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE COAST WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK THE MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE MID LVL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED AND BY FRI
A 594DM RIDGE WILL BE CNTRD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LAST FEW FCST THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS AND WARMER
TEMPS...AND MOST LIKELY THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SEASON. FIRST FOR TSRA CHANCES...THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
WHILE WARMING LOW AND MID LVLS WILL LEAD TO A CAP. ALL OF THIS WILL
HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CONVECTION. THAT SAID CANT RULE OUT ISLTD
TO WIDELY SCT SHRA AND TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SELA COAST WHERE
SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS COMBINE WITH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTN
POSSIBLY LEADING TO CONVECTION. AS FOR TEMPS NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN
THAT RESPECT AND IT STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT ESPECIALLY THU AND FRI.
H925 TEMPS COULD APPROACH 28-29C AND THIS WOULD LEAD TO UPPER 90S ON
THOSE DAYS. AS FOR ANY POSSIBILITIES OF A HEAT ADV IT LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER CRITERIA. MORNING LOWS SHOULD COOL OFF IN
MOST PLACES TO ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE
CITY WHERE LOWS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 70S. AFTN
HEAT INDICIES WILL APPROACH THE MID 100S. SO WITH THAT SAID IT WILL
STILL BE QUITE WARM AND OPPRESSIVE IN THE AFTN. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE MDLS DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS FALLS OUT OF THE FCST PERIOD.
TROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MON NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE WILL STILL DOMINATE
THE REGION LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO MON NIGHT AND TUE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FAR ENOUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK ERLYS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES.

AS FOR THE TROPICS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. MDLS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WITH NOTHING EVEN DEVELOPED YET IT IS FUTILE TO TRY
TO FCST WHERE THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL GO. AS ALWAYS IN MID
AUG...ITS HURRICANE SEASON AND NO MATTER WHAT YOU SHOULD PAY
ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS. UPDATES WILL BE MADE AS NECESSARY IF THERE
IS ANY CHANGE. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. NOT INCLUDING IN TAFS THIS FCST PERIOD BUT RATHER DO
AN UPDATE AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE... EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CLOUD
BASES AROUND 4KFT DURING THE DAY.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  96  76  96  76 /  30  20  20  10
ASD  94  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  94  78  94  78 /  40  20  20  10
GPT  93  78  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  93  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 200442
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 06Z TAF PD. MOSTLY TEMPO MVFR STRATUS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE AT A FEW SITES...BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT BY MID
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WEDNESDAY...BUT COVERAGE TOO ISOLD TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT S TO SWLY WINDS 5-10 KTS
THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHT`S POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200417
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1117 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KHUM PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 200246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT TRAINED ACRS THE
LAKE CHARLES AREA. THESE STORMS DROPPED A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIP CURRENTLY NOTED ON KLCH 88D. THE SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING
IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS AND LIKEWISE TWEAK LOWS SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH AFTER AFTN CONVECTION DISSIPATED. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX...AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING POP WORDING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

23/MS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  78  92  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
KLFT  74  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 200246
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
946 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FAIRLY DECENT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACRS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...INCLUDING SOME STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT TRAINED ACRS THE
LAKE CHARLES AREA. THESE STORMS DROPPED A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AND PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED WITH LITTLE...IF
ANY...PRECIP CURRENTLY NOTED ON KLCH 88D. THE SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTN...WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

ONLY ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING
IN LINE WITH RECENT OBS AND LIKEWISE TWEAK LOWS SLIGHTLY AS TEMPS
DID NOT RECOVER MUCH AFTER AFTN CONVECTION DISSIPATED. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX...AND UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE
EVENING POP WORDING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

23/MS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
KBPT  78  92  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
KAEX  74  95  75  95 /  10  20  10  20
KLFT  74  93  77  93 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200214
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHTS POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200214
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR THE EVENING AND HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
GRIDS. THE RAIN AND OUTFLOWS HAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH WARMEST READINGS IN NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY. SOME CURRENT READINGS ARE NEAR FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...BUT EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

OTHER THAN TONIGHTS POPS...HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 200111
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING/S BALLOON ONCE AGAIN SAMPLED A FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
LITTLE MORE MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE MIDLEVELS...ESPECIALLY
NOTED BETWEEN 525 AND 400MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TONIGHT/S PW MEASURED
AT 1.97 INCHES. WINDS WERE PRIMIARILY FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 300MB. THEN THE WINDS WERE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL TO 100MB. OVERALL...THE TEMPERATURE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT ANY GIVEN LEVEL COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

00Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUNTINE FLIGHT THIS EVENING WITH NO ISSUES.
THE BALLOON TRAVELED 25 MILES DOWNRANGE BEFORE BURSTING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AT A HEIGHT OF 21.7 MILES
ABOVE THE GROUND.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 200033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 200033
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ATTM...ALTHOUGH A STRONG NWD-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF A FEW MORE SHWRS/TSTMS BEFORE
SUNSET. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z TAF PD...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE AND S-SWLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLCH 192348
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
648 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DIVERGENCE ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES...AS A COL IN THE WIND FIELD ALOFT SEPARATES AN INVERTED
TROUGH (MOBILE-TO-TAMPICO AXIS) FROM A STALLED WESTERLY SHORTWAVE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

JT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KSHV 192102
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 192102
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 192102
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 192102
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE AREA ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR A WEAK
SEA BREEZE. OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST NEAR AN OLD SHEAR AXIS AND
NEAR THE COLD POOL LEFT OVER BY LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WITH ONLY VERY SLIM RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO NEXT WEEK
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES. WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL
EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90/S AND APPROACH
THE CENTURY MARK. WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN PLACE THE AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 100 TO 105 DEGREES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  76  98  75 /  20   0   0   0  10
MLU  73  97  74  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  71  97  71  97  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  97  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
TYR  75  95  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  96  75  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  75  96  76  98  76 /  30  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 192035
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

STACKHOUSE/MARCOTTE





000
FXUS64 KLCH 192035
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

NOT MANY ALTERATIONS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO LOW
90S DURING THE DAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WHICH...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SETTLED
OVER OUR REGION AS RIDGING CONTINUES IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPRESS MOST LIFTING
MECHANISMS...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 90S INLAND WITH DEW POINTS
FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND THE RETURN OF
SOME LIFTING MECHANISMS TO THE AREA WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10
KBPT  78  92  78  93  77 /  10  20  10  20  10
KAEX  75  95  75  95  74 /  20  20  10  20  10
KLFT  77  93  77  93  77 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

STACKHOUSE/MARCOTTE






000
FXUS64 KLIX 192027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THIS STRENGTHENING RIDGE IN
PLACE...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING ALOFT WILL HELP LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT IN A TOKEN 20 PERCENT POP
FOR THE AREA...WITH THE POP HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION DOES FORM
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COULD ASSIST IN OVERCOMING THE CAP
ALOFT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE FOUND ALONG ANY
LAKEBREEZE AND SEABREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS PUSHING TO AROUND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE PROJECTED TO COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR RECOVERY FROM THE
HEAT...SO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
RUNS...HAVE WENT THIS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONG 595 RIDGE SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...PLACING THE GULF SOUTH IN A MORE EAST AND
NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN. A WEAK VORT MAX ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY TO REFLECT THIS RISK. HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY THE POPS WERE
LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD STILL BE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM...BUT SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE
AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WINDS WILL TURN MORE VARIABLE. A NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EACH NIGHT AS
A MESOHIGH OVER LAND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS TO THE SOUNDS AND NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE RIVER EACH
NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED
WHERE THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
BTR  76  95  76  95 /  10  20  10  20
ASD  77  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  78  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  77  92  76  94 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KSHV 191806
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND MID LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL
TX. HAVE VCTS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK...DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL OR TEMPO PRECIP
SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH CIGS LIFTING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 191806
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND MID LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL
TX. HAVE VCTS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK...DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL OR TEMPO PRECIP
SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH CIGS LIFTING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 191806
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND MID LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL
TX. HAVE VCTS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK...DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL OR TEMPO PRECIP
SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH CIGS LIFTING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 191806
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAFS...SCATTERED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS AND MID LVL TROUGH OVER CNTRL
TX. HAVE VCTS AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED AND SPOTTY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK...DIRECT
IMPACTS ON THE TAF SITES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL OR TEMPO PRECIP
SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOIST SLY
FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH CIGS LIFTING
LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 191728
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING
WITH THE GULF MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS/AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM ADVANCES OVER A
TAF SITES. STORM MOTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER 20/00Z. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AND AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KLCH OVERNIGHT AND
AROUND DAYBREAK...AS SMOKE FROM MARSH FIRE IN CAMERON PARISH
SETTLES AND MIXES INTO THE FOG/HAZE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGINNING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 191714
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION
MIGHT BE IN VICINITY OF VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY NECESSARY
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. 95/DM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...QUIET NIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TWO ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO DROP WITH MUCH
OF THE AREA STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AFTER 7Z.

LESS CONVECTION AND WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER TX AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
SHEARING OUT TODAY WITH A STRONG MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN AND
DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS IS
GOING TO LEAD TO SOME DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE POPS ON
THE LOW END. SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AND PEAK AFTN HEATING MAY STILL
SPARK A FEW SHRA AND TSRA BUT OVERALL LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO
BE MUCH LOWER. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO HEAT UP PROVIDING
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS SUMMER. H925 TEMPS WILL APPROACH
26/27C TODAY AND WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT BY THU
AND FRI H925 TEMPS COULD HIT 28C LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
COMBINE THOSE TEMPS WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND AFTN
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABV 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. /CAB/

LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE HOLDING ON STRONG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ALLOW FOR THE ERLYS TO
RETURN. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FCST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH LOW POPS AND CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS. AS THE RIDGE HEADS TO
THE NORTH WE MAY START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN HIGHS BUT STILL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. /CAB/

MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS IN A STEADY SW DIRECTION. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO RELAX AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THIS WIND REDUCTION AND FALL TO 2
FEET OR LESS AREAWIDE.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
BTR  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  10
ASD  92  75  93  75 /  20  10  20  10
MSY  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  30  10
GPT  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
PQL  91  76  91  74 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 191609
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A LOT OF DEBRIS CIRRUS KEEPING STATION
AND MITIGATING MVFR BOTH CIGS/FG. CONVECTION TODAY MAY OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSH AND OVER OUR
NORTH ALONG A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FROM
KTXK...TO KMLU AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KELD AND KSHV THIS
MID AFTERNOON BASED ON THE HIGH RES MODEL. VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BE AMENDED WITH DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE S/SW WINDS ON
THE SFC ARE GENERALLY SW- NW ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SPEED ANYWHERE.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 191609
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGGINING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 191609
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE BUMPED UP THE DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA
TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND SHOWS WARMING ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
FASTER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEW POINTS AND
WINDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...A LOT OF DEBRIS CIRRUS KEEPING STATION
AND MITIGATING MVFR BOTH CIGS/FG. CONVECTION TODAY MAY OCCUR OVER
THE SOUTH WITH RESPECT TO A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSH AND OVER OUR
NORTH ALONG A WEAK SHEAR AXIS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FROM
KTXK...TO KMLU AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KELD AND KSHV THIS
MID AFTERNOON BASED ON THE HIGH RES MODEL. VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BE AMENDED WITH DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE S/SW WINDS ON
THE SFC ARE GENERALLY SW- NW ALOFT WITH NOT MUCH SPEED ANYWHERE.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
THAT PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION JUST 24 HRS AGO OVER SW
AR/EXTREME NRN LA HAS SHIFTED E INTO NRN GA...WITH THE 00Z RAOB
500MB PLOT STILL REVEALING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDS FARTHER
W ACROSS NRN MS/N LA AND INTO NE TX. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MCV SPINNING E OF
SJT...WHICH THE 00Z PROGS HAVE INITILIZED WELL ON AS CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO REGENERATE NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OVER CNTRL TX.
THIS CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED A THICK AC CANOPY OVER NE TX/EXTREME
NW LA...ALTHOUGH IR IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING
A WEAKENING TREND IS ONGOING ATTM. THIS MCV CENTER IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NNE ACROSS NCNTRL TX TODAY...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY THINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TODAY
ESPECIALLY IF THIS DEBRIS FIELD HANGS TOUGH TODAY...BUT HAVE
PLAYED THE PESSIMIST WITH IT THINNING LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
09Z TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. WHILE THE SHORT TERM PROGS
DO SUGGEST A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RESIDUAL SHEAR AXIS...WHICH IS STILL WEAKLY REFLECTED IN THE OTHER
SHORT RANGE PROGS. IN ADDITION...THE 09Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
DISTINCT W-E GRADIENT IN SFC THETA-E FROM NEAR OSA TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAK COLD POOL FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THESE WEAK
SFC AND UPPER AIR FORCING MECHINISMS...AND THE FACT THAT THE CNTRL
TX MCV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NNE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DID CARRY THEM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY LYR.

THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE MCV
OPENING UP LATE...AS THE WRN ATLANTIC/CNTRL GULF OF MX UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BRIDGE NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. STILL
SHOULD SEE A WEAK SEABREEZE AFFECTING THE SRN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS/EARLY EVENINGS...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFY THE RIDGE FARTHER N ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/MS VALLEY FRIDAY...AND KEEPS IT PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE...WITH EVEN SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS DO BEGIN TO SLOWLY NUDGE THE RIDGE E
INTO THE SE STATES BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKNESSES RIDING W
BENEATH THE RIDGE ACROSS S LA/SRN MS AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
THUS...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NCNTRL LA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING FARTHER WNW TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  95  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  94  71  94  71  95 /  20  20   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /  20  20   0   0   0
ELD  95  72  96  74  97 /  20  20   0   0   0
TYR  95  75  96  76  97 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  95  74  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  96  75  96  76  97 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLCH 191609
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1109 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED. BEGGINING TO SEE
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE/ZONE OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH
UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AGAIN A MUGGY START TO THE DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DEW-POINT READINGS. SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE POPS. MOST GUIDANCE GIVES THE
AREA SOME SCATTERED POPS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM. WITH
THE RECENT UPGRADE TO THE NAM...DO NOT YET HAVE A FEEL ON THE
PERFORMANCE OVER THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEA-BREEZE BECOMES ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST LA
AND SOUTHEAST TX. THEN AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COMPLICATE CONVECTIVE MODEL TRENDS. SO GIVEN THE TRENDS THE PAST
FEW DAYS PW`S ABOUT 110% OF NORMAL AND LEANING HEAVY ON CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE DID INCREASE THE POPS TODAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND WEST LOUISIANA WITH LESS CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. SOME INDICATIONS THAT POPS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
BUILDING RIDGE IS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP ACTIVITY IN THE
WARM HUMID AFTERNOONS.

BY FRIDAY RIDGE BECOMES FULLY DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CONTINUE WITH LESS THAN
20 POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WARMEST
PERIOD SO FAR THIS YEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. WITH THE WARMING CONDITIONS OVER LAND...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE DIFFERENTIAL IN HEAT OVER LAND VERSUS WATER WILL PRODUCE
A STOUT SEA-BREEZE THAT WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND.

WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HIGH DEW-POINTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS
TIME MOST LIKELY DAY THAT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS THURSDAY. THEN DEW-POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BACK OFF AS
THE COLUMN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DRY UNDERNEATH RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT DURING THE DAYTIME
AND INCREASE SOME AT NIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH THE NOCTURNAL
JET. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL BE THE RESULT.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS...AND THIS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  30  10  20
KBPT  93  78  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  77  94 /  20  10  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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