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000
FXUS64 KSHV 191007
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NEWD FROM CNTRL TX AND INTO THE CWA. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER S
TX WILL TRACK GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GULF COAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20 WHILE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN MORE SCT FARTHER N. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LVLS SHOULD ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
END RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT REMAINING OFF THE COAST AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM DEEP E TX EWD INTO CNTRL LA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AND LIGHT
NELY WINDS PROVIDE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NIGHTTIME. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AND THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE KEPT POPS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY FRONT. POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE MOST. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK IN SE OK/SW AR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
COLD AIR WILL GO AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  40  52  39  55 /  90  30  10  10  10
MLU  47  39  50  39  54 /  90  60  10  10  10
DEQ  48  36  49  35  51 /  40  10  10  10  10
TXK  45  37  50  36  53 /  60  20  10  10  10
ELD  45  36  50  36  53 /  70  30  10  10  10
TYR  51  40  52  40  54 /  80  10  10  10  10
GGG  50  40  52  39  54 /  80  20  10  10  10
LFK  53  42  52  42  56 / 100  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 191007
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
407 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
NEWD FROM CNTRL TX AND INTO THE CWA. SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT OVER S
TX WILL TRACK GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GULF COAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER W TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE PLAINS. BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND S OF I-20 WHILE PRECIP
WILL REMAIN MORE SCT FARTHER N. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LVLS SHOULD ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
END RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E DURING THE EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN
SHOULD OUT OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT REMAINING OFF THE COAST AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEING A LITTLE BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE CWA AND HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM DEEP E TX EWD INTO CNTRL LA.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST AND LIGHT
NELY WINDS PROVIDE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE NIGHTTIME. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD RETURN LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE AND THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. HAVE KEPT POPS SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW.
TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE CLIMO AHEAD OF THE
TUESDAY FRONT. POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING
BLOW OF COLD AIR AT THE MOST. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK IN SE OK/SW AR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
COLD AIR WILL GO AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
ARCTIC INTRUSION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  40  52  39  55 /  90  30  10  10  10
MLU  47  39  50  39  54 /  90  60  10  10  10
DEQ  48  36  49  35  51 /  40  10  10  10  10
TXK  45  37  50  36  53 /  60  20  10  10  10
ELD  45  36  50  36  53 /  70  30  10  10  10
TYR  51  40  52  40  54 /  80  10  10  10  10
GGG  50  40  52  39  54 /  80  20  10  10  10
LFK  53  42  52  42  56 / 100  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





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000
FXUS64 KLIX 191004
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUND ONE IS A SHORT WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OR OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM TX TO THE LA COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ROUND TWO WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT MUCH MORE SYNOPTICALLY VIGOROUS ROUND 3 SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. KEG


.SHORT TERM...
ROUND ONE RAIN IS KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR THIS MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A
WARM FRONT. PW UP TO 1.38 ON 00Z SOUNDING. SATL ESTIMATES PW
VALUES UP TO 1.6 INCHES NOW. DID AN OLD FASHIONED HAND ANALYSIS
THIS MORNING WITH PAPER AND A REAL PENCIL... CYCLOGENISIS UNDERWAY
WITH A LOW CURRENTLY OVER KCRP. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IN TEXAS AND SW LA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP THIS MORNING. SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTS IN TEXAS WHERE LAPSE
RATES WERE MORE SUPPORTIVE. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN AS THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WELL IN THE GULF. 600-800 J/KG CAPE
IN THE GULF AT 18Z WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OUT PACING THE RAIN
TODAY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WITH ADDED
ISCENTROPIC LIFT SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. HPC
ANALYSIS LOOKS GOOD WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH QPF SWATH WELL NORTH OF THE
LOW WHERE RAIN WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE
RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE SOIL IS DRY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME THREAT OF A HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED
MESOS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY NOON SATURDAY. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND TWO IS ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN THE MID WEST
FORCES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT MAINLY IMPACTING THE COAST...SE LA AND MS GULF COAST.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE ECONUS COMES NEXT CREATING OUR ROUND 3
EVENT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. A DEEPENING LOW BOTTOMS
OUT AROUND CRESCO IOWA AT 06Z TUE PER THE GFS. THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND CENTERS OVER NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN BY 18Z TUE AND STRENGTHENS A BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS BUT
BOTH AGREE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OFFSHORE. 600 J/KG CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY
FORCED ALONG THE FRONT BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE HIGH MOVES
QUICKLY EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...NIGHTS COOL...
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. COULD SEE LOWER 70S IN SOME
AREAS BY THE 26TH. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND...AT TIMES...IFR VSBY IN HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH GULF LOW
TRANSITING THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER AT WESTERN
TERMINALS INITIALLY THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTER 20/15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EACH MODEL RUN HAS MOVED THE TRACK OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND IF WEAK ENOUGH WILL JUST BE AN OPEN
WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY KEEPING AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY CLEARING OUT THE AREA. HOWEVER... THIS
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A FRICTIONLESS WATER SURFACE.
THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUE AND WED. MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             CITY OF NEW ORLEANS DSS SUPPORT
             MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  43  56  45 / 100  70  20  10
BTR  59  45  59  46 / 100  60  20  10
ASD  59  47  62  49 /  90  70  20  10
MSY  64  52  61  52 /  90  60  20  10
GPT  55  48  60  51 /  80  70  30  10
PQL  59  43  63  45 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 191004
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUND ONE IS A SHORT WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OR OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM TX TO THE LA COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ROUND TWO WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT MUCH MORE SYNOPTICALLY VIGOROUS ROUND 3 SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. KEG


.SHORT TERM...
ROUND ONE RAIN IS KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR THIS MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A
WARM FRONT. PW UP TO 1.38 ON 00Z SOUNDING. SATL ESTIMATES PW
VALUES UP TO 1.6 INCHES NOW. DID AN OLD FASHIONED HAND ANALYSIS
THIS MORNING WITH PAPER AND A REAL PENCIL... CYCLOGENISIS UNDERWAY
WITH A LOW CURRENTLY OVER KCRP. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IN TEXAS AND SW LA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP THIS MORNING. SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTS IN TEXAS WHERE LAPSE
RATES WERE MORE SUPPORTIVE. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN AS THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WELL IN THE GULF. 600-800 J/KG CAPE
IN THE GULF AT 18Z WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OUT PACING THE RAIN
TODAY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WITH ADDED
ISCENTROPIC LIFT SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. HPC
ANALYSIS LOOKS GOOD WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH QPF SWATH WELL NORTH OF THE
LOW WHERE RAIN WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE
RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE SOIL IS DRY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME THREAT OF A HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED
MESOS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY NOON SATURDAY. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND TWO IS ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN THE MID WEST
FORCES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT MAINLY IMPACTING THE COAST...SE LA AND MS GULF COAST.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE ECONUS COMES NEXT CREATING OUR ROUND 3
EVENT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. A DEEPENING LOW BOTTOMS
OUT AROUND CRESCO IOWA AT 06Z TUE PER THE GFS. THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND CENTERS OVER NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN BY 18Z TUE AND STRENGTHENS A BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS BUT
BOTH AGREE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OFFSHORE. 600 J/KG CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY
FORCED ALONG THE FRONT BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE HIGH MOVES
QUICKLY EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...NIGHTS COOL...
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. COULD SEE LOWER 70S IN SOME
AREAS BY THE 26TH. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND...AT TIMES...IFR VSBY IN HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH GULF LOW
TRANSITING THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER AT WESTERN
TERMINALS INITIALLY THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTER 20/15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EACH MODEL RUN HAS MOVED THE TRACK OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND IF WEAK ENOUGH WILL JUST BE AN OPEN
WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY KEEPING AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY CLEARING OUT THE AREA. HOWEVER... THIS
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A FRICTIONLESS WATER SURFACE.
THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUE AND WED. MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             CITY OF NEW ORLEANS DSS SUPPORT
             MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  43  56  45 / 100  70  20  10
BTR  59  45  59  46 / 100  60  20  10
ASD  59  47  62  49 /  90  70  20  10
MSY  64  52  61  52 /  90  60  20  10
GPT  55  48  60  51 /  80  70  30  10
PQL  59  43  63  45 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 191004
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUND ONE IS A SHORT WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OR OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM TX TO THE LA COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ROUND TWO WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT MUCH MORE SYNOPTICALLY VIGOROUS ROUND 3 SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. KEG


.SHORT TERM...
ROUND ONE RAIN IS KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR THIS MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A
WARM FRONT. PW UP TO 1.38 ON 00Z SOUNDING. SATL ESTIMATES PW
VALUES UP TO 1.6 INCHES NOW. DID AN OLD FASHIONED HAND ANALYSIS
THIS MORNING WITH PAPER AND A REAL PENCIL... CYCLOGENISIS UNDERWAY
WITH A LOW CURRENTLY OVER KCRP. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IN TEXAS AND SW LA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP THIS MORNING. SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTS IN TEXAS WHERE LAPSE
RATES WERE MORE SUPPORTIVE. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN AS THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WELL IN THE GULF. 600-800 J/KG CAPE
IN THE GULF AT 18Z WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OUT PACING THE RAIN
TODAY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WITH ADDED
ISCENTROPIC LIFT SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. HPC
ANALYSIS LOOKS GOOD WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH QPF SWATH WELL NORTH OF THE
LOW WHERE RAIN WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE
RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE SOIL IS DRY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME THREAT OF A HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED
MESOS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY NOON SATURDAY. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND TWO IS ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN THE MID WEST
FORCES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT MAINLY IMPACTING THE COAST...SE LA AND MS GULF COAST.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE ECONUS COMES NEXT CREATING OUR ROUND 3
EVENT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. A DEEPENING LOW BOTTOMS
OUT AROUND CRESCO IOWA AT 06Z TUE PER THE GFS. THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND CENTERS OVER NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN BY 18Z TUE AND STRENGTHENS A BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS BUT
BOTH AGREE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OFFSHORE. 600 J/KG CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY
FORCED ALONG THE FRONT BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE HIGH MOVES
QUICKLY EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...NIGHTS COOL...
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. COULD SEE LOWER 70S IN SOME
AREAS BY THE 26TH. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND...AT TIMES...IFR VSBY IN HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH GULF LOW
TRANSITING THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER AT WESTERN
TERMINALS INITIALLY THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTER 20/15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EACH MODEL RUN HAS MOVED THE TRACK OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND IF WEAK ENOUGH WILL JUST BE AN OPEN
WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY KEEPING AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY CLEARING OUT THE AREA. HOWEVER... THIS
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A FRICTIONLESS WATER SURFACE.
THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUE AND WED. MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             CITY OF NEW ORLEANS DSS SUPPORT
             MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  43  56  45 / 100  70  20  10
BTR  59  45  59  46 / 100  60  20  10
ASD  59  47  62  49 /  90  70  20  10
MSY  64  52  61  52 /  90  60  20  10
GPT  55  48  60  51 /  80  70  30  10
PQL  59  43  63  45 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 191004
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THREE SYSTEMS TO WATCH AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ROUND ONE IS A SHORT WAVE AND LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OR OPEN WAVE MOVING FROM TX TO THE LA COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ROUND TWO WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT MUCH MORE SYNOPTICALLY VIGOROUS ROUND 3 SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. KEG


.SHORT TERM...
ROUND ONE RAIN IS KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR THIS MORNING AS A SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON A
WARM FRONT. PW UP TO 1.38 ON 00Z SOUNDING. SATL ESTIMATES PW
VALUES UP TO 1.6 INCHES NOW. DID AN OLD FASHIONED HAND ANALYSIS
THIS MORNING WITH PAPER AND A REAL PENCIL... CYCLOGENISIS UNDERWAY
WITH A LOW CURRENTLY OVER KCRP. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IN TEXAS AND SW LA OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOWING
UP THIS MORNING. SOME SMALL HAIL REPORTS IN TEXAS WHERE LAPSE
RATES WERE MORE SUPPORTIVE. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FIRST SYSTEM
WILL BE RAIN AS THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW STAYS ALONG THE COAST
KEEPING THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WELL IN THE GULF. 600-800 J/KG CAPE
IN THE GULF AT 18Z WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OUT PACING THE RAIN
TODAY. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WITH ADDED
ISCENTROPIC LIFT SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED. HPC
ANALYSIS LOOKS GOOD WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH QPF SWATH WELL NORTH OF THE
LOW WHERE RAIN WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. IMPACT SHOULD BE LOW AS THE
RIVERS ARE LOW AND THE SOIL IS DRY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH SOME THREAT OF A HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED
MESOS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OUT BY NOON SATURDAY. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND TWO IS ON SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE IN THE MID WEST
FORCES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT MAINLY IMPACTING THE COAST...SE LA AND MS GULF COAST.
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSHORE AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM LIMITING CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE ECONUS COMES NEXT CREATING OUR ROUND 3
EVENT WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. A DEEPENING LOW BOTTOMS
OUT AROUND CRESCO IOWA AT 06Z TUE PER THE GFS. THE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND CENTERS OVER NEW RICHMOND
WISCONSIN BY 18Z TUE AND STRENGTHENS A BAROCLINIC ZONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUE AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS BUT
BOTH AGREE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE OFFSHORE. 600 J/KG CAPE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY
FORCED ALONG THE FRONT BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE HIGH MOVES
QUICKLY EAST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE 24TH AND 25TH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...NIGHTS COOL...
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. COULD SEE LOWER 70S IN SOME
AREAS BY THE 26TH. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW END MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND...AT TIMES...IFR VSBY IN HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH GULF LOW
TRANSITING THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE LOWER AT WESTERN
TERMINALS INITIALLY THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER THIS
TAF VALID PERIOD...GENERALLY AFTER 20/15Z. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
A SHORT WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EACH MODEL RUN HAS MOVED THE TRACK OF
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND IF WEAK ENOUGH WILL JUST BE AN OPEN
WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE LOW TRACKS
EAST...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT SATURDAY KEEPING AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH FORCING THE WARM FRONT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY CLEARING OUT THE AREA. HOWEVER... THIS
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A FRICTIONLESS WATER SURFACE.
THE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TUE AND WED. MARINERS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             CITY OF NEW ORLEANS DSS SUPPORT
             MONITORING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND ISOLATED TSTORMS.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  52  43  56  45 / 100  70  20  10
BTR  59  45  59  46 / 100  60  20  10
ASD  59  47  62  49 /  90  70  20  10
MSY  64  52  61  52 /  90  60  20  10
GPT  55  48  60  51 /  80  70  30  10
PQL  59  43  63  45 /  70  70  30  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 190552
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 2.5KF AGL WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY CEILING AROUND
2KFT FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AND CEILING SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS
IN RAIN AND FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
18 &&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190552
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 2.5KF AGL WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY CEILING AROUND
2KFT FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AND CEILING SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS
IN RAIN AND FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
18 &&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190552
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 2.5KF AGL WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY CEILING AROUND
2KFT FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AND CEILING SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS
IN RAIN AND FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
18 &&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 190552
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1152 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 2.5KF AGL WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STEADY CEILING AROUND
2KFT FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
AND CEILING SHOULD REMAIN SHROUDED OVER ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS
IN RAIN AND FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS
AFTER 12Z. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL GO WITH PREVAILING VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 15Z TODAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
18 &&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KSHV 190546 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHY -DZ OVER MUCH OF E TX/SW AR/CNTRL
LA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N LA AS AREAS OF -SHRA OVER
SE TX BEGINS TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CAN/T RULE OUT EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LFK
TERMINAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION ELSEWHERE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SHRA BEGINS TO
DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER SE OK/WRN AR AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NE TX...BUT
GENERALLY...IFR CIGS AND 4-6+SM VSBYS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 190546 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHY -DZ OVER MUCH OF E TX/SW AR/CNTRL
LA WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH VARIOUS MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N LA AS AREAS OF -SHRA OVER
SE TX BEGINS TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CAN/T RULE OUT EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE LFK
TERMINAL...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION ELSEWHERE.
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SHRA BEGINS TO
DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS...COULD SEE
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS TO LOW MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING OVER SE OK/WRN AR AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NE TX...BUT
GENERALLY...IFR CIGS AND 4-6+SM VSBYS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 190531
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1131 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH A WARM
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST. PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL INCREASE THE LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND PICK UP THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST ALONG THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL
TROUGH...STAYING JUST OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT IFR LEVELS WILL PREVAIL...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
20/00Z. HOWEVER...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 / 100 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 / 100 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  90 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 / 100 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 190531
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1131 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH A WARM
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST. PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL INCREASE THE LIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY AND PICK UP THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST ALONG THE WARM FRONT/COASTAL
TROUGH...STAYING JUST OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT IFR LEVELS WILL PREVAIL...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
20/00Z. HOWEVER...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 / 100 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 / 100 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  90 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 / 100 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 190321
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
921 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BUILDING UP FROM THE COAST...WITH 0Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
MUCH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEED AT KSHV ABOVE 900 MB FOR ANYMORE
THAN DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS WARM FRONT MAY SURGE
SLIGHTLY NWD...SO MAINTAINING A STRONG GRADIENT FOR POPS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT...CATEGORICAL IN EAST TX LAKES AND TOLEDO BEND...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLD THUNDER...ALL THE WAY TO NO POPS UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF SW AR. LIGHT NE WINDS BRINGING IN LOWERING
DEWPOINTS UNDERNEATH MOISTURE INFLUX...SO A PRE WARM FRONT
OVERRUNNING SET UP. TEMPS WILL FALL TO NEAR DEWPOINTS BY
DAYBREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY RISE SOUTH
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 190144
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  60 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 190144
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  60 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 190144
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
744 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AS MOST PRECIP REMAINS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE GULF, HOWEVER RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FARTHER INLAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OUTSIDE OF THIS MINOR
ADJUSTMENT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  60 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 190119
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH OF GRAND BAY
ALABAMA...JUST EAST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE. FLIGHT
TERMINATED AT AN ALTITUDE OF 108.3K FEET OR 20.5 MILES.

MOISTURE HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED THIS EVENING WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE OF 1.38 INCHES...WHICH IS 161 PERCENT OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. BASE OF INVERSIONS AT 960 MB AND 720 MB. CLOUD
DECK RAPIDLY DESCENDED FROM FL080 TO FL025 IN THE HOUR BEFORE THE
LAUNCH...AND THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE SOUNDING WHICH WAS PRETTY
MUCH SATURATED BETWEEN THE INVERSIONS. MARINE LAYER APPEARS TO BE
ABOUT 2000 FEET DEEP. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWER 2000 FEET
RAPIDLY BECOME WEST ABOVE THAT...AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 100
MB. PEAK WIND OF 124 KNOTS AT 42.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 182348 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 182348 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OVER E
TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA...WITH MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS OVER NCNTRL LA
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER/BECOME IFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS AREAS OF SHRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX BETWEEN 03-06Z AND SPREAD NNE
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT EMBEDDED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA /POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL AROUND DAYBREAK/...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW IN MENTIONING IN THE OTHER TERMINALS ATTM. THE
AREAS OF SHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
18Z...BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE N LA/SW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...LIFR/IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS 4-8KTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  80 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 182334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 19/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER LOWER TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF KGLS THEN INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST.
FORECAST AREA WILL EXPERIENCE PRE-WARM FRONTAL TYPE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND SOME MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS AND PICK UP
THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ROUGHLY JUST
ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A
RESULT TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ALSO...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND BECOME MORE INTENSE...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58  44 /  80 100  30  10  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60  44 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54  41 /  80 100  50  10  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59  45 /  80 100  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLIX 182153
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





000
FXUS64 KLIX 182153
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
353 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES IMPACTING THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS IMPACTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. MAIN
CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST IS AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...AM CARRYING 100 PERCENT POPS FOR
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...WE ARE FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
FOR MANY PLACES.

HPC IS HIGHLIGHTING AT LEAST SOME RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
I.E. RAINFALL THAT EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL COME DOWN TO A LACK OF
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. RIVERS AND OTHER
RESERVOIRS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING OR FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...IF A
SPECIFIC LOCATION DOES HAPPEN TO EXPERIENCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN...WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS...LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BECAUSE THE
THREAT DOES APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME...WILL FORGO ANY
KIND OF WATCH PRODUCT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

ONTO THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEAR THE
COAST. A TRACK THIS FAR SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OVER
THE GULF WITH ONLY VERY MARGINAL AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE OVER LAND AREAS. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND SPC/S LATEST OUTLOOK AGREES WITH THIS
LINE OF THINKING AS THEY CONTINUE TO WHITTLE AWAY NORTHERN PARTS
OF THEIR MARGINAL RISK AREA. SINCE THERE IS AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS...WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
AND WINDS BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.

THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS IT
PASSES BY...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT...AND EVEN GETTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE A STRETCH. AS THIS LOW PASSES THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

A THIRD UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY FORCE A CLEARING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT WELL INTO THE GULF...WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM TX COAST THRU SOUTH LA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR SPREADS NORTHWARD IN THE BOUNDARY LAYERS.
SOME IFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR CIGS AND VIS IN RAIN AND FOG WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS LIKELY MOST TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED TSRA
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AFTER 09Z THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND
APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AHEAD OF THE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY...AND ONE OR TWO COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. THE LOW WILL ELONGATE AND
WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. GOING INTO TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  47  52  44  58 /  50 100  70  20
BTR  51  60  46  61 /  60 100  60  20
ASD  49  58  47  61 /  40  90  70  20
MSY  55  63  52  61 /  40  90  60  20
GPT  48  57  49  61 /  30  80  70  30
PQL  43  58  44  63 /  30  70  70  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...21
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182032
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58 /  80 100  30  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60 /  80 100  20  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54 /  80 100  50  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59 /  80 100  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182032
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58 /  80 100  30  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60 /  80 100  20  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54 /  80 100  50  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59 /  80 100  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182032
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58 /  80 100  30  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60 /  80 100  20  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54 /  80 100  50  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59 /  80 100  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 182032
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM MOIST AIR SITTING PATIENTLY OFF THE COAST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OFFSHORE IN THE WARMER AIR AND MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO VERMILION BAY AND SOUTHERN VERMILION AND LOWER ST
MARTIN PARISHES. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...SCATTERED PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN INLAND. LESS THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT INDEED
THE RAIN IS GOING TO COME. TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY REACHED THE HIGH
POINTS ALREADY AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPS
THE TEMPERATURES REIGNED IN.

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...ALOFT WE HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WORKING OUT OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA
AT THE MOMENT. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER TEXAS FRIDAY
MORNING...AND WITH IT BRING A SERIES OF ENERGY PULSES MOVING
ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. THIS IS AN ACTIVE SYSTEM...WITH THAT SAID...THE
WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO STAY RIGHT NEAR THE COAST LINE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...JUST EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THE
MOMENT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STEADILY MOVING EAST ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL JUST BEGIN TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED INLAND AND THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVERRUNNING RAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GREAT...HOWEVER...CLOUDS
MAY LINGER SOME AND COULD STILL SEE A SPRINKLE HERE AND THEREFORE MOSTLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AND IN THE DEEPER GULF WATERS
ON SUNDAY. IN ORDER TO CLEAR THINGS OUT...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO RIDE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO TRANSITION INTO RETURNING FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING IN
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE MOST PART...YOU ARE GOING TO NEED AN UMBRELLA VENTURING
OUT TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE STAY
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF WATERS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORING TURNING
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  60  46  58 /  80 100  30  10
KBPT  56  61  47  60 /  80 100  20  10
KAEX  50  50  43  54 /  80 100  50  10
KLFT  56  62  48  59 /  80 100  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CARRIED THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BIT OF A TROF EXTENDING SW-NE KINDA BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE DEMARCATION LINE
BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS (<1K FEET) AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IFR OR WORSE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT. LOCAL 88DS SHOW RAINS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY CNTL LA BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY
PASSED KAEX. AS FAR AS THE SRN SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
WATCH AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE SERN
SITES ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE JUST RETAINED A VCSH MENTION THERE AS
TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO CARRY THIS PRECIP S OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PREVAILING RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINS PUSHING NWD...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALSO WORKS INTO THE MIX.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46  57 /  60  60  90  30  10
KBPT  69  57  66  47  58 /  50  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  50  70  90  50  10
KLFT  66  56  65  48  58 /  50  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CARRIED THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BIT OF A TROF EXTENDING SW-NE KINDA BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE DEMARCATION LINE
BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS (<1K FEET) AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IFR OR WORSE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT. LOCAL 88DS SHOW RAINS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY CNTL LA BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY
PASSED KAEX. AS FAR AS THE SRN SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
WATCH AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE SERN
SITES ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE JUST RETAINED A VCSH MENTION THERE AS
TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO CARRY THIS PRECIP S OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PREVAILING RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINS PUSHING NWD...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALSO WORKS INTO THE MIX.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46  57 /  60  60  90  30  10
KBPT  69  57  66  47  58 /  50  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  50  70  90  50  10
KLFT  66  56  65  48  58 /  50  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CARRIED THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BIT OF A TROF EXTENDING SW-NE KINDA BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE DEMARCATION LINE
BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS (<1K FEET) AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IFR OR WORSE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT. LOCAL 88DS SHOW RAINS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY CNTL LA BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY
PASSED KAEX. AS FAR AS THE SRN SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
WATCH AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE SERN
SITES ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE JUST RETAINED A VCSH MENTION THERE AS
TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO CARRY THIS PRECIP S OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PREVAILING RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINS PUSHING NWD...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALSO WORKS INTO THE MIX.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46  57 /  60  60  90  30  10
KBPT  69  57  66  47  58 /  50  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  50  70  90  50  10
KLFT  66  56  65  48  58 /  50  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181801
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1201 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CARRIED THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUR
EXPECTED RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MSAS SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BIT OF A TROF EXTENDING SW-NE KINDA BISECTING THE FORECAST
AREA...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE THE DEMARCATION LINE
BETWEEN LOW CEILINGS (<1K FEET) AND VFR CIGS. EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING IFR OR WORSE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TONIGHT. LOCAL 88DS SHOW RAINS
LINGERING OVER MAINLY CNTL LA BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY
PASSED KAEX. AS FAR AS THE SRN SITES...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO
WATCH AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE GULF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE SERN
SITES ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE JUST RETAINED A VCSH MENTION THERE AS
TRAJECTORIES APPEAR TO CARRY THIS PRECIP S OF THE AREA. EXPECT
PREVAILING RAINS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINS PUSHING NWD...AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM
A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ALSO WORKS INTO THE MIX.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46  57 /  60  60  90  30  10
KBPT  69  57  66  47  58 /  50  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  50  70  90  50  10
KLFT  66  56  65  48  58 /  50  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 181739
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 19/18Z...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR
FLIGHT WEATHER DUE TO CIGS...RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
WINDOWS OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH RAIN BEGINNING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AFTER 06Z. ALL AREAS
CAN EXPECT RAIN BY 15Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJSO TO KAEX LINE.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 KFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
AND SOUTHERN AR TO AROUND 10 KFT DEEP EAST TEXAS. SURFACE WIND
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHWRS IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR SERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA IN GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWRD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXCEPT FOR
THOSE FAR SE PARISHES. OTHER CHANGES TO NOTE INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  50  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  48  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  48  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  54  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  58  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 181739
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 19/18Z...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR
FLIGHT WEATHER DUE TO CIGS...RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE SOME
WINDOWS OF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
AFTER 03Z...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
WITH RAIN BEGINNING ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AFTER 06Z. ALL AREAS
CAN EXPECT RAIN BY 15Z FRIDAY. ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJSO TO KAEX LINE.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8 KFT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK
AND SOUTHERN AR TO AROUND 10 KFT DEEP EAST TEXAS. SURFACE WIND
MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHWRS IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR SERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA IN GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWRD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXCEPT FOR
THOSE FAR SE PARISHES. OTHER CHANGES TO NOTE INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  50  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  48  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  48  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  54  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  58  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 181734
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS AND ADJUST WEATHER FOR THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BASED
ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  30  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  30  50  80  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  20  40  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  20  40  80  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  30  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /  10  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 181722
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1122 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHWRS IS NOW CONFINED TO THE FAR SERN
FRINGES OF OUR CWA IN GRANT AND LA SALLE PARISHES. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EWRD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION. THEREFORE...
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF TODAY EXCEPT FOR
THOSE FAR SE PARISHES. OTHER CHANGES TO NOTE INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
WHICH HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER SO HAVE LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AT MOST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  48  49  41  53 /  10  60  70  40  10
MLU  50  47  47  40  52 /  10  60  80  60  10
DEQ  48  43  48  36  52 /  10  30  60  40  10
TXK  48  45  47  37  51 /  10  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  10  40  70  60  10
TYR  54  48  49  41  54 /  10  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  10  70  70  30  10
LFK  58  49  52  44  55 /  10  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181557
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
957 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITTING OFF THE COAST MAKING FOR A MESSY
WEATHER PICTURE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT RADAR...
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND FILL IN SOUTHWARD CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT.
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES REST OF THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR WHICH ARE BOTH SIGNALING RAIN COVERAGE INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...ONLY ADJUSTED DOWN
ONE TINY NOTCH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY AS WELL...IT IS GOING
TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  55  64  46 /  60  60  90  30
KBPT  69  57  66  47 /  50  70  90  20
KAEX  56  50  53  42 /  50  70  90  50
KLFT  66  56  65  48 /  50  40  90  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 181254
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS INCREASING AS MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE FROM THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST 2000
FEET. AT 37500 FEET THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 116 KNOTS WAS FOUND.
THIS MORNING/S SURFACE INVERSION IS AROUND 3300 FEET THICK. TWO
SMALLER INVERSIONS EXIST AROUND 10000 AND 25000 FEET. TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY LOWER FROM 5000 FEET UP AND HIGHER BELOW 5000 FEET
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE
THE GROUND BURSTING 88 MILES DOWNRANGE NORTH OF GRAND BAY MS.
FLIGHT TIME THIS MORNING WAS 97 MINUTES.

ANSORGE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CEILINGS NOW
OVER OUR TERMINALS OF AEX AND BPT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THIS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT NOW
OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THAT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT INTO THE
INLAND AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON TAP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. CARRYING VCSH AND TEMPO GROUPS AT VARIOUS
TIMES AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING...RAMPING UP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF ADVANCING EAST ACROSS TEXAS.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 181101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER





000
FXUS64 KLCH 181101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 181101
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
501 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE NATION RANGED FROM SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER 70S AT BROWNSVILLE IN DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.

THE WEATHER TODAY LOOKS TO BE A MESS AS WE BEGIN ANOTHER TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN A
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING WITH IT A WARM FRONT. RAINS TODAY ARE
GOING TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN
BEAUMONT TO 60 FOR THE LAKES REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
INLAND TO EAST ALONG THE COAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COOL AS THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT WILL LAY ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS REMAIN STATIONARY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE WILL
BE IS A CHANCE THAT SEVERAL STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH WINDS
THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LAKES
REGION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ON FRIDAY
THIS WILL DRAG COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN INTO TEXAS WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE IN THE DAY. THIS LATEST
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FRIDAY EVENING
WITH RAINS ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
COOLER AND DRIER ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  66  55  64  46  57 /  40  60  90  30  10
KBPT  70  57  66  47  58 /  60  70  90  20  10
KAEX  56  50  53  42  54 /  60  70  90  50  10
KLFT  67  56  65  48  58 /  30  40  90  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13






000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 181057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
457 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND OUT
OF LIGHT RAIN AREAS. RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING MOST OF THE RAIN
PULLING OUT OF THE NE TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK TERMINAL BUT
THE QUESTION IS WILL -DZ DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN. WILL
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAK...IT IS THERE SO CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TODAY...IF AT ALL...SO DECIDED TO BE OPTIMISTIC AND BRING CEILINGS
UP TO NEAR 1KFT BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY IF LIGHT
DRIZZLE SETS IN...THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY E/ENE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 3-6KTS OVERNIGHT AND BACKING SLIGHTLY TO MORE OF A NE
DIRECTION ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SE TX
AND WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LIKELY SWALLOWING THE LFK TERMINAL AND EVENTUALLY CLOSER TO THE
I-20 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/13





000
FXUS64 KSHV 180958
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD TOWARDS
THE MIDWEST. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST. BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDS FROM THE SE TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TODAY AND MOST OF
THE RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HRS SHOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KTYR
TO PRESCOTT AR. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENT OVER THE DESERT
SW...WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING INTO SW TX AND EVENTUALLY
MOVE NEWD OVER THE CWA BY LATE FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTMS ISOLATED. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES. SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

RAIN SHOULD END BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE. YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. A FEW SHWRS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LOW AS LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING. A
MUCH STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AFFECT MUCH OF THE COUNTRY AND
SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
LATEST ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER COMPARED TO THE GFS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CLIMO BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMS NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND MOST OF THE COOL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES AND RAIN. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  48  49  41  53 /  40  60  70  40  10
MLU  52  47  47  40  52 /  40  60  80  60  10
DEQ  47  43  48  36  52 /  20  30  60  40  10
TXK  47  45  47  37  51 /  30  40  60  40  10
ELD  49  46  46  38  51 /  40  40  70  60  10
TYR  56  48  49  41  54 /  30  70  70  30  10
GGG  53  48  49  41  53 /  30  70  70  30  10
LFK  62  49  52  44  55 /  60  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLIX 180956
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
356 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. EACH
MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING MOISTURE RECOVERY AS PW VALUES RISE IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. ROUND ONE WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT-WAVE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN HIGHER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL BE ROUND TWO AS IT DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENISIS EVIDENT AS ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN KBRO AND KCRP OVER
THE KING RANCH. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOUISIANA COAST AND ACROSS SE LA/S MS ON
FRIDAY. EACH MODEL RUN IS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WHICH ALTERS THE
IMPACT TO OUR FORECAST EACH RUN. THE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. WIND PROGS INDICATE A
50KT JET IN THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING ENDING FROM THE
WEST BY NOON. EXAMINING THE IMPACTS TO THE AREA... THE FURTHER
THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH THE LOWER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
SELA...SMS...AND THE MS GULF COAST. GFS QPF PROGS OVER 2 INCHES
IN AN ELONGATED BLOB FROM KLFT TO KMOB NORTH OF THE LOW. SO SEVERE
OR NOT...SOME AREAS WILL GET MUCH NEEDED RAIN...THUS FORECAST
FAIRLY HIGH POPS FROM THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT SOME SCIENCE FOR
SEVERE CHANCES...HIGHEST CAPE PROGGED TO PASS ALONG THE COASTAL
WATERS PEAKING AROUND 800 J/KG. NOTICED THE BEST OMEGA LIFT WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT ALL NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WHERE THE BEST
POPS AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL TAKE PLACE. NOT IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT HAIL THREAT...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DECENT
SHEAR. SHEAR VALUES PROGGED TO BE FROM 400 TO 580 M2/S2 IN THE 0 TO
3 KM RANGE PEAKING AT 00Z SAT. DEDUCING THE SEVERE CHANCE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE LOW TRACK POINTS TO A
TYPICAL LOW INSTABILITY...HIGH SHEAR... ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
THREAT. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ALONG THE
COAST TO OFFSHORE HOWEVER... THERE WOULD REMAIN A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... AND WITH THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST. KEG

.LONG TERM...
ROUND THREE COMES TUESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. A LARGE ECONUS TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY WITH
CYCLOGENISIS OVER MT RUSHMORE PER THE GFS AND OVER THE HAWKEYE
STATE PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW CARVES AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUE ENDING IN THE EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM A 150KT H3 JET AND SOME
INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT 18Z TUE CONVECTIVE DATA SHOWS THE MAIN
INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME STRONGER LIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE ENSUING BAROCLINIC ZONE. S MS CAPE
VALUES PROGGED AT 200 J/KG WITH 1200 J/KG IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
THE BEST LIFT IS PROGGED IN CNTRL MS. SO...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE LOOKS MARGINAL ONCE
AGAIN.... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS SYSTEM IS LOW CONCERNING THE
AREAL IMPACTS. ONE THING FOR CERTAIN IS A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
KHUM PEAKING AT 1019 MB. LOOKS TO BE A VERY PLEASANT DECEMBER 25TH
WITH CLEAR SKIES...HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S. WE WILL KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OR CAA WEDNESDAY.
SWAN/WWA AND SYNOPTIC MODELS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT RISE IN SEAS
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS. POSSIBLE GALES IN THE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WATERS AND WITH AROUND 30MPH OVER LAND. KEG

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING A SLOW LOWERING OF CEILINGS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR
BKN020-025 AT KBTR AND KMCB BEFORE 19/00Z...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD
TO OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY END OF TAF VALID PERIOD. SOME IFR
CIGS AROUND BKN-OVC007 MAY DEVELOP AT KBTR BY 19/12Z. WILL HANDLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME FOR KMCB AND
KBTR FOR AFTER 19/06Z WITH -SHRA THOUGH ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BY END OF TAF PERIOD. THIS MAY BE BETTER HANDLED WITH
TEMPO GROUP IN SUBSEQUENT TAF PACKAGE ISSUANCE. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. WE WILL
LIKELY RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH THIS LOW. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... SOME STRONG
ONES AS THE LOW PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS THE MARINE AREA. ANOTHER LOW AND A
FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THERE IS AN INDICATION IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES GALES
COULD BE REACHED. SEAS WILL BE 6 TO 10 FEET LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY CREATING A VERY HAZARDOUS ENVIRONMENT FOR
MARINERS. KEG

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  47  53  44 /  20  40  90  60
BTR  66  50  60  46 /  20  40  90  50
ASD  67  48  61  48 /  10  20  80  70
MSY  68  55  64  53 /  10  20  70  60
GPT  63  47  58  50 /  10  20  70  70
PQL  66  42  60  45 /   0  30  70  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 180551 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF -SHRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENE ACROSS NW LA/SW AR/EXTREME
ERN TX...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SCT -SHRA FARTHER W OVER SE OK/N TX
EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO NE TX OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...CIGS HAVE
BECOME MVFR...WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NE
TX/SE OK...AND SHOULD SPREAD E INTO EXTREME SW AR/NW LA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...VFR CIGS OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH
MVFR/SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY 12Z. THE SCT -SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z...BUT STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY
ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA. EVEN WHILE THE -SHRA
DIMINISHES...PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN -DZ SHOULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH CIGS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MUCH /IF AT ALL/ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...IFR
CIGS SHOULD EXPAND AREAWIDE...WITH PERIODS OF -DZ POSSIBLE AS WELL
UNTIL SCT -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOP OVER SE TX/SRN LA AND
EXPAND N ACROSS E TX/N LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. ENE WINDS 4-7KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 180544
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3KFT AT MCB AND BTR THURSDAY
EVENING.18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180519
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES UP NEAR THE
COAST AND STALLS. AS THE WARM FRONT NEARS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND
KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY
MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER
THIS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KBPT/KLCH AFTER 19/00Z WITH PREDOMINATE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 180142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.





&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 180142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
742 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING
REGARDING TEMP AND POPS. MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION,
HOWEVER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH CHANCE SLOWLY INCREASING TOWARD SUNRISE. POPS WERE
TRIMMED BACK A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT FALL MUCH
MORE WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING AND CLOUDS THICKENING... OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.





&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APPROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  30  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  20  50  70  90  50
KLFT  48  67  59  70  48 /  10  40  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 180054
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
654 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

FLIGHT A LITTLE SHORTER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT. LOST WIND DATA AT
ABOUT 80K FEET...AND FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER JACKSON COUNTY
MISSISSIPPI IN THE SANDHILL CRANE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AT A
HEIGHT OF 88.1K FEET OR 16.7 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH
A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.59 INCHES...WHICH IS 68 PERCENT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. SOUNDING SHOWED A 5 DEGREE C INVERSION
BETWEEN 950 AND 920 MB. A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 825 AND
725 MB...BUT THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE JUST ABOVE 400 MB WHICH IS PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM ABOUT 2500 FEET TO
10000 FEET WITH GENERALLY WEST WINDS ABOVE THAT. MAX WIND WESTERLY
AT 107 KNOTS AT 44.5K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 13K FEET...AND
-20C LEVEL AT 23.3K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172357 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 172334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 172334
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
534 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST PAC MOVES OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PUSH A WARM FRONT UP
NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK AT KBPT...THEN BY
MID-MORNING AT KLCH/KAEX...AND KLFT/KARA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND WILL MENTION VCSH BY MORNING AND PROB30 GROUPS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO COVER THIS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32






000
FXUS64 KLIX 172216
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TO THE
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST...AN ELONGATED AND HIGHLY SHEARED REGION OF
ENHANCED VORTICITY TRAILING OFF FROM THE PARENT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER
THE AREA...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL
OMEGA AND SOME DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA BEGINNING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTO TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL ROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND CREATE A REGION OF ENHANCED LIFT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGHER BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO BE OVER THIS
REGION...AND SURFACE BASED CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WARM FRONTAL
PROCESSES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN LOUISIANA
AND MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING OMEGA ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT TO
SEE SKIES TURN OVERCAST AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. A STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE
LOW...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK OF AROUND 50 KNOTS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...0-3 KM SPEED SHEAR
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND 0-3KM SPEED
SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH HELICITY
VALUES RANGING FROM 250 TO 450 M2/S2 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE
SHEAR VALUES...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GENERALLY...ANY CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 200 J/KG OR
LESS...AND THIS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LOUISIANA COAST. CLOSER TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY
SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE FOUND...WITH ANY INSTABILITY CONFINED
TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A HOUMA TO NEW ORLEANS TO GULFPORT LINE. TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE...THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAR TOO STABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
FAIRLY WEAK...SO HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY RACE TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRIER
AIR AND INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...BUT A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK TRAPPED BENEATH AN
ELEVATED INVERSION PRODUCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING WEAKENS THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES COLDER ON
SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. OVERALL...READINGS WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME
THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF SOUTH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS
WILL GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR
TUESDAY.

INITIALLY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE ZONAL FLOW
WILL KICK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
DUE TO A CONTINUED DRY LAYER RESIDING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
THIS RAINFALL MAKE A PUSH INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD.

UNFORTUNATELY...A MUCH STRONGER PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE DIVES TO THE
SOUTH...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RACE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO BEGIN TO FORM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG 150 KNOT JET STREAK
MOVING OVER THE REGION...ANOTHER 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR SOME WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND INCLUDED A
MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS
IS LOW FOR NOW.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL QUICKLY PULL TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN. FORTUNATELY...THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN AFTER THE
MOISTURE PULLS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY STRONG WINDS...AS 50 KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 850
MB. EVEN WITH INCREASED FRICTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE AND WINDS OVER LAND COULD EXCEED 30 MPH
AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS
AS  FAR EAST AS KHDC AND KMCB BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATER AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH. EXPECT TO SEE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET DEVELOP IN THE GULF WATERS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WANES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE GALE
FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FEET FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  32

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  40  63  50  60 /   0  20  40  90
BTR  43  67  53  66 /   0  20  40  90
ASD  40  65  50  65 /   0  10  20  80
MSY  46  67  54  68 /   0  10  20  70
GPT  42  66  49  66 /   0  10  20  70
PQL  37  65  47  66 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32





000
FXUS64 KLCH 172143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 172143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES OUT OF SOUTH TEXAS. RAINFALL WILL BECOME
EXTENSIVE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONTAL LOW MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SHOWERS WILL END IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM BY THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER TROF PASSES BY MONDAY WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW...DISRUPTED BY A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT DRIVEN BY ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROF. CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE
COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED AS THE FRONTAL
WAVE DEVELOPS AND HEADS INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST
TO KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIP WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES WILL BE OVER ONE STANDARD DEVIATION
HIGHER THAN CLIMO SO LOOKING FOR A GOOD SOAKING...POSSIBLE
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...BLENDED IN COOLER EURO TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE AS 1000HPA-500HPA
THICKNESSES APROACH 540DM. FORTUNATELY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  70  59  69  46 /  20  50  40  90  30
KBPT  54  71  63  70  47 /  20  60  60  90  20
KAEX  46  60  49  61  43 /  40  50  70  90  50
KLFT  45  67  59  70  48 /  20  30  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 172115
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  60  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  70  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  70  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  70  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  70  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  60  40  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171757
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1157 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PD...AS SHWRS
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BRING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY OUT OF THE E
AT 4-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SHROUDED IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC/LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SERLY...ADVECTING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ERN TX IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SMALL POPS ARE
INSERTED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PUSHING FARTHER
EWD AS WELL AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS LATE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171755
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE THE ENTIRE AREA IS CURRENTLY
SHROUDED IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE DESERT SW. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AS
SFC/LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SERLY...ADVECTING IN MORE GULF
MOISTURE. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER ERN TX IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SMALL POPS ARE
INSERTED LATE IN THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PUSHING FARTHER
EWD AS WELL AS A SFC WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS LATE.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 171755
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE FROM AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE 18Z
TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED AND VSBYS REMAINING ABOVE 6 NM. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR COOL MORNING WITH UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE LOWERED THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW HIGHER READINGS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. KNEW STILL WITH A
15MPH WIND AS NORTHERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS THURSDAY WITH E TO SE FLOW SETTING UP AND DEW
POINTS RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CYCLOGENISIS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE LOW. THOSE MINOR DIFFERENCES THOUGH WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. THE LOW
LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TX COAST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. SO THE BIG QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. GFS
LI PROGS KEEP THE NEGATIVE VALUES IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BEST
CAPE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ARE PREDICTED TO BE AROUND 800 J/KG AND
IT APPEARS THE BEST LIFT OMEGA VALUES RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. 60
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT SO FAR THE
SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LOW AND CONFINED TO THE COAST. WITH
THAT SAID...ANY CHANGE IN THE LOW COULD BRING THE WARMFRONT
FURTHER NORTH AND THE CONVECTIVE CHANCE ALONG WITH IT. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING OUT FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL. KEG

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOLD OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
THE NEXT TROUGH IN THE SERIES COMING TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IF QUITE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 996MB LOW OVER CNTRL MISSISSIPPI
TUESDAY EVENING (WED 00Z). ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA...IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES.
A LITTLE WAYS OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE 25TH OF DECEMBER LOOKS TO BE
CLEAR AND COOL. KEG

AVIATION...NO ISSUES FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FCST WITH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS SLOWLY
RETURNING TONIGHT. /CAB/

MARINE...THE NEXT 36-48 HRS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW SETTING BACK UP THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE. FRI AND SAT A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE TX COAST/NWRN GULF
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES
AND DEEPEN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING
THE DAY FRI LEADING TO LIKELY SCY CONDITIONS. IN FACT WINDS ACTUALLY
LOOK TO BE STRONGER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM (FRI AND FRI NIGHT) THAN
BEHIND LIKE NORMAL (SAT AND SAT NIGHT). THE REASON FOR THIS IS CAA
IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. WINDS WILL RELAX SUN. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  43  63  48 /   0  10  20  30
BTR  62  45  67  53 /   0  10  10  20
ASD  61  42  68  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  61  49  69  56 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  59  43  64  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  61  38  66  44 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





000
FXUS64 KSHV 171719
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1119 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW ALONG A RICH TONGUE OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED. OVERCAST
SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE LAYERED AS LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD EAST FROM CNTRL AND S TX.
SHWRS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL SO NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19






000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171551
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
951 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A COLD BIAS MODELS HAVE HAD ON MAX TEMPS
AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED AS AN H7 RIDGE AXIS PASSES, DESPITE SOME
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP AFTERNOON TEMPS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  65  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  68  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  62  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  65  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 171219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 171219
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
619 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OF THE MID AND HIGH VARIETY TODAY COMING IN ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. VFR CONTINUES.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL YIELD A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING....TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS THE
HIGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 171121
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING AC DECK ACROSS MOST OF NE TX
NOW...QUICKLY MOVING INTO SW AR AND NW LA. INITIAL CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 10-8KFT WITH CEILINGS QUICKLY LOWERING TO NEAR 4-5KFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS
ALSO DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OK. THIS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A
STRONGLY VEERED LOWER 5KFT WIND PROFILE ALSO HELPING FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE ABOVE REGION AS
WELL.

FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING...HAVE CEILINGS
STEADILY LOWERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VCSH MENTION AT THE TYR/TXK
TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 18Z...WITH A PREVAILING LIGHT AFTERNOON -RA.
GRADUALLY BRING THESE CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINING
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AS WE SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.
CEILINGS COULD BEGIN BECOMING MVFR AS EARLY AS 00Z ACROSS SOME OF
OUR NE TX TERMINALS DEPENDING UPON JUST HOW FAST THIS SATURATION
PROCESS OCCURS. OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY WITH -SHRA WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION
BEING THE MLU TERMINAL WHICH MAY NOT GET IN ON THE PRECIP UNTIL
JUST BEYOND THE 18/12Z TIMEFRAME.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO MORE OF A E OR ESE DIRECTION
TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/13







000
FXUS64 KLCH 171111
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
511 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS MORNING WITH A QUIET
OVERNIGHT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO 30S ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOWER 40S DOWN ALONG THE COAST. LATEST
STLT IMAGES ARE INDICATING CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE PACFIC
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. NORTHEAST WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH LIFTS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
60S MOST LOCATIONS UPPER 50S FOR CNTRL LOUISIANA AND AROUND THE
LAKES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS SHOWERS RETURN
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING THE OLD FRONT IN THE GULF NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AN INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA OPENING UP THE
REGION TO GULF MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A
STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE ON FRIDAY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM WINDS. RAINS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER WITH DRIER AIR
SPILLING BACK INTO THE REGION ON THE DAY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A
COOL AND DRY WEEKEND ON TAP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  62  51  67  58  69 /  10  20  40  40  80
KBPT  64  55  70  61  69 /  10  20  40  70  80
KAEX  59  46  59  52  60 /  10  40  40  70  80
KLFT  64  50  68  58  69 /  10  10  40  40  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$


K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 171010
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
410 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EWD
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ EMERGES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLUME OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC WILL ALSO STREAM OVERHEAD. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL
LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SHWRS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS CNTRL TX AND
SPREAD ENEWD INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. MID AND LOW
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE QUITE DRY AND SATURATION WILL LIKELY
TAKE PLACE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT AND KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW ONE INCH THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NRN CA/SRN OR
COAST...WILL DIVE SEWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TX BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN TX ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND THEN LIFT NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST OF THE CWA FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD BE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM BUT THE SFC LOW AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST AND THE
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE ABUNDANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NWLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE PARADE
OF UPPER TROUGHS GOING AS WELL AS PERIODIC COLD FRONT PASSAGES
ALONG WITH THEM. LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS FOR NEXT
TUES/WED AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
NO MAJOR COLD AIR MASSES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND THE
FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PERHAPS A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  44  54  48  51 /  10  60  40  60  80
MLU  52  42  52  46  52 /  10  50  40  70  80
DEQ  47  39  50  43  46 /  40  80  20  40  80
TXK  48  40  52  44  47 /  20  70  30  40  80
ELD  48  40  51  44  48 /  10  70  40  50  80
TYR  50  44  58  48  51 /  40  70  30  70  70
GGG  53  44  56  48  52 /  30  70  30  60  70
LFK  56  49  61  53  58 /  20  60  40  80  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09





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