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000
FXUS64 KLCH 231727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SFC LOW/FRONT OVER WRN OK/TX APPROACH
FROM THE NW. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING TAPPING INTO 30-40KT WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT
OF THE SFC. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EASIER AND MORE FREQUENT TRANSPORT OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SFC.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH WATER LEVELS NO
LONGER LOOKING TO APPROACH CRITERIA. THE MARINE HAZARDS WERE ALSO
MODIFIED A BIT BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-EAST
     CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
     ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231727
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOW CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE AN UPSTREAM SFC LOW/FRONT OVER WRN OK/TX APPROACH
FROM THE NW. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING TAPPING INTO 30-40KT WINDS WITHIN A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT
OF THE SFC. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WHERE BETTER ALIGNMENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EASIER AND MORE FREQUENT TRANSPORT OF
THESE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SFC.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH WATER LEVELS NO
LONGER LOOKING TO APPROACH CRITERIA. THE MARINE HAZARDS WERE ALSO
MODIFIED A BIT BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ACADIA-EAST
     CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
     ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 231648
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO EAST OF I-49 WITH POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES...NOT SEEN ON RADAR...IN CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS REMAINDER
OF AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO SHIFT RAIN EAST...AND CARRY SPRINKLES BUT
WITH NO POPS AND NO QPF ELSEWHERE. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ABOUT TO
ENTER NE TX AND BRINGING A DECREASE OF CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT...FROM
SW TO NE. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID/UPPER 70S OVER NE TX...BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTHCENTRAL LA AND SW/AR AND SE OK TO UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON...HOWEVER...
MAY CUT BACK ON THIS ADVISORY AT NEXT UPDATE THAT WILL BE ISSUED
JUST AFTER 12 NOON./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
MLU  71  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  39  60  31  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  70  43  59  34  59 /  70  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231648
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO EAST OF I-49 WITH POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES...NOT SEEN ON RADAR...IN CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS REMAINDER
OF AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO SHIFT RAIN EAST...AND CARRY SPRINKLES BUT
WITH NO POPS AND NO QPF ELSEWHERE. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ABOUT TO
ENTER NE TX AND BRINGING A DECREASE OF CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT...FROM
SW TO NE. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID/UPPER 70S OVER NE TX...BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTHCENTRAL LA AND SW/AR AND SE OK TO UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON...HOWEVER...
MAY CUT BACK ON THIS ADVISORY AT NEXT UPDATE THAT WILL BE ISSUED
JUST AFTER 12 NOON./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
MLU  71  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  39  60  31  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  70  43  59  34  59 /  70  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231648
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO EAST OF I-49 WITH POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES...NOT SEEN ON RADAR...IN CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS REMAINDER
OF AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO SHIFT RAIN EAST...AND CARRY SPRINKLES BUT
WITH NO POPS AND NO QPF ELSEWHERE. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ABOUT TO
ENTER NE TX AND BRINGING A DECREASE OF CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT...FROM
SW TO NE. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID/UPPER 70S OVER NE TX...BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTHCENTRAL LA AND SW/AR AND SE OK TO UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON...HOWEVER...
MAY CUT BACK ON THIS ADVISORY AT NEXT UPDATE THAT WILL BE ISSUED
JUST AFTER 12 NOON./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
MLU  71  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  39  60  31  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  70  43  59  34  59 /  70  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 231648
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO EAST OF I-49 WITH POSSIBLE VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES...NOT SEEN ON RADAR...IN CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS REMAINDER
OF AREA. HAVE UPDATED TO SHIFT RAIN EAST...AND CARRY SPRINKLES BUT
WITH NO POPS AND NO QPF ELSEWHERE. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ABOUT TO
ENTER NE TX AND BRINGING A DECREASE OF CLOUDS WITH DRY SLOT...FROM
SW TO NE. KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID/UPPER 70S OVER NE TX...BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS NORTHCENTRAL LA AND SW/AR AND SE OK TO UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. LAKE WIND ADVISORY BEGINS AT NOON...HOWEVER...
MAY CUT BACK ON THIS ADVISORY AT NEXT UPDATE THAT WILL BE ISSUED
JUST AFTER 12 NOON./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
MLU  71  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  70  39  60  31  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  70  43  59  34  59 /  70  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IBERIA-
     ST. MARY-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IBERIA-
     ST. MARY-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IBERIA-
     ST. MARY-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 231440
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
840 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE THROUGH CENTRAL LA. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37 /  80  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IBERIA-
     ST. MARY-VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 231208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  20   0  10  10  10
MLU  74  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  72  39  60  31  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  30   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  43  59  34  59 /  60  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  20   0  10  10  10
MLU  74  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  72  39  60  31  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  30   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  43  59  34  59 /  60  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  20   0  10  10  10
MLU  74  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  72  39  60  31  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  30   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  43  59  34  59 /  60  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 231208
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
608 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 23/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
CIGS WITH IFR TO MVFR VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID MORNING BECOMING
VFR. THE VFR FLIGHT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THROUGH 24/12Z. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHTER AIRCRAFT. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND TO INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...10 TO 15 KTS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 24/00Z WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY...REACHING 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AT SOME TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. AFTER 06Z...WIND WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  20   0  10  10  10
MLU  74  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  72  39  60  31  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  30   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  43  59  34  59 /  60  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 231142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXITING THE REGION THIS AM WITH CEILINGS AND VSBY IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. VFR OVER EAST TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. VFR WX EXPECTED
ALL LCTNS BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 231031
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
431 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCS. THIS IS ALREADY ENDING OVER SE TX...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER LA THIS MORNING. DUAL POL PRECIP ESTIMATES
A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4" OVER PORTION OF SE TX...AND MOST OF
CALCASIEU AND WESTERN CAMERON PARISH...WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW OVER E TX THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP
THIS MORNING. A MUCH LARGER SFC LOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
EAST AS WELL...KEEPING OUR FLOW MAINLY SW TODAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...WITH NW FLOW AND
CAA EXPECTED FOR MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING
WEEK. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL
COOL RE-ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE. THE
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SABINE PASS TO
CAMERON HAS PRODUCED A WAKE LOW WITH 30-40 KTS WEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...AND A TIDAL SURGE THAT WENT FROM 3.07 FEET MLLW AT 2:30 AM
TO 5.83 FEET MLLW BY 3:08 AM...AND BACK DOWN TO 1.32 FEET MLLW BY
3:48 AM. THIS WAS REAL...AS WE CALLED CAMERON SO TO CONFIRM POSSIBLE
FLOODING...WHICH THEY WERE RECEIVING REPORTS AS WE WERE TALKING.
WILL BE ISSUING LSR WITH THESE REPORTS AS WE GET A DETAILED LIST
FROM CAMERON SO. UPGRADED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR CAMERON PARISH THRU 6 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR FURTHER SURGE
UP CALCASIEU LAKE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

ELSEWHERE FOR VERMILION...IBERIA...AND ST. MARY...EXTENDED COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AS SECONDARY HIGH TIDE
WITH SW WINDS COULD LEAD TO TIDAL LEVELS BACK TO 3.5 FEET MLLW OR
HIGHER.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  50  65  42  62 /  40  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  49  64  42  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
KAEX  76  47  63  37  62 /  60  10  10  10  10
KLFT  75  52  65  41  60 / 100  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...WEST CAMERON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...VERMILION BAY...WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230950
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL EYES THIS MORNING WILL BE ON A STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRIGGERED AN
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE THIS MORNING
JUST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. IN FACT THERE MAY BE A WATCH POSTED AT SOME POINT
THIS MORNING HOWEVER THERE ARE A STILL A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY KEEP
THE THREAT AT BAY. A SOUNDING AT 6Z SHOWED A DEEP MARINE LAYER
OVER 3500 FEET IN DEPTH OVER THE AREA. THIS IS A STABLE COOL LAYER
IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND WOULD PROHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION.
THAT MEANS THAT THE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS THAT WOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND CAUSE
DAMAGE. ALSO THE INSTABILITY AND RICHER DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED OFF
THE COAST AND IS HAVING A VERY HARD TIME GETTING INLAND AND THIS
AGAIN WOULD KEEP THE STRONG CONVECTION JUST ALONG THE COAST AND
OUT OVER THE GULF.

OVERALL THE MAIN THREAT FROM A SEVERE WEATHER STANDPOINT SHOULD
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS MORNING...THIS
IS NOT TO SAY THAT ANY OTHER AREAS COULD NOT GET SEVERE WEATHER
BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW SMALL STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE AND THESE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS FAR AS THREATS GO...WE STILL ANTICIPATE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE AND STILL WITH STRONG
HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STILL EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. STAY WEATHER
AWARE THIS MORNING BY MONITORING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA PAGES AND OUR
WEB PAGE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT DOES NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z WITH A
POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 12Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS

&&

.MARINE...
A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LINE SWEEPS
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE STILL UP AND WILL BE UP
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE
BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             MONITORING RADAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  52  63  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  77  52  64  39 / 100  10  10  10
ASD  77  54  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  58  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  55  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230937
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
337 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH MUCH LESS
THUNDER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EMBEDDED VORT OVER CENTRAL TX
IS FCST TO DAMPEN AND LIFT ENEWD TODAY...WITH SHWRS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SWLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF E TX DURING THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ON THE HEELS OF THIS MORNING`S WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING VERY
GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS BOTH DURING THIS AFTN
AND LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY...WHILE OUR UPPER LEVELS REMAIN DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING. A SERIES OF VORTS WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF
THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL PROPEL THE TROF EWD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF-SHORE BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY UNDER WEAK
WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  44  62  37  62 /  20   0  10  10  10
MLU  74  45  62  36  60 /  70   0  10  10  10
DEQ  72  39  60  31  58 /  30  10   0   0   0
TXK  73  41  59  36  59 /  30   0  10  10   0
ELD  74  43  59  34  59 /  60  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  42  62  37  61 /  10   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  43  61  35  62 /  10   0   0  10   0
LFK  77  44  64  37  63 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230654
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1254 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT
ALSO A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO A DEEP MARINE LAYER RESIDING OVER
THE AREA. 0-3KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 381 M2/S2 AND A
DEVELOPING 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ARE NOTED. HOWEVER...THE MARINE
LAYER EXTENDS UP TO NEARLY 4000 FEET AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN
VERY WEAK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES ARE
POSITIVE. THERE WILL HAVE TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF MODIFICATION TO
THE AIRMASS IN ORDER FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT MOST...THIS SOUNDING IS CONDUCIVE TO SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  53  64  38 / 100  10  10  10
BTR  76  53  64  39 /  90  10  10  10
ASD  76  55  66  38 / 100  10  10  10
MSY  77  57  66  46 / 100  10  10  10
GPT  75  57  67  40 / 100  10  10  10
PQL  75  57  68  37 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND
KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR
KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY 14-20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND
KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR
KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY 14-20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND
KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR
KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY 14-20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230603
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

EXPECT TO SEE MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR MOST OF THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND
KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR
KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20
KNOTS...WITH WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLY 14-20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 / 100 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 / 100  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 / 100 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 / 100 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 / 100 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230525
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014


.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN SOME AREAS OF LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 / 100 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 / 100  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 / 100 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 / 100 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 / 100 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230523
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE REGION...WILL BE EXITING 12Z OR LATER. DURING THIS 6
HOUR WINDOW...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN/FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230523
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE REGION...WILL BE EXITING 12Z OR LATER. DURING THIS 6
HOUR WINDOW...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN/FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230523
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE REGION...WILL BE EXITING 12Z OR LATER. DURING THIS 6
HOUR WINDOW...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN/FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 230523
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1123 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ENTERING THE REGION...WILL BE EXITING 12Z OR LATER. DURING THIS 6
HOUR WINDOW...COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN/FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230355 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 230355 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
955 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. PRECIP EXTENDS SW INTO CNTRL TX AND SWD TOWARDS THE
S TX COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY
END SUNDAY FROM SW TO NE AS THE AREA BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.

ADJUSTED POP/QPF/WX GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HRS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT BY 2-3 DEGREES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  44  63  37 /  90  20   0  10  10
MLU  58  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  30  10  10   0
TXK  58  73  41  60  35 /  90  30   0  10   0
ELD  58  73  41  61  36 /  90  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  90  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  90  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  90  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KLCH 230249
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
849 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
OVER TX WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX AND LA TOWARD EARLY TO MID SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE, WITH
LESS OF A CHANCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. LEFT THE SVR WORDING
INTACT IN THE FORECAST. WITH DEWPTS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AND
WATER TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S SEA FOG IS DEVELOPING AND VIS
HAS BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
REFLECT THIS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 230123
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230123
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230123
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 230123
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THE REMAINING HOLD OUT ON THE CHANGE TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST TEXAS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AFTER
23/06-08Z. SHOULD SEE CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 23/10-12Z FOR KTYR AND KGGG...23/12-14Z FOR
KSHV...KLFK...AND KTXK...AND 23/14-16Z FOR KELD AND KMLU. THE LOWER
CEILINGS WILL START TO SCATTER OUT AND LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CATEGORIES RETURNING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS...BEFORE
WESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTLY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 230040
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STRONG 4 DEGREE CELSIUS
ELEVATED CAP AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS CAP STILL IN PLACE...THE RISK
OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS
BASICALLY NIL. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES WILL NEED TO IMPROVE
CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR CONVECTIVE RISK
TO INCREASE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH PW VALUES RISING NEARLY HALF AN INCH SINCE THE 12Z SOUNDING.
THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IN EXCESS OF 25
KNOTS.  A SPECIAL SOUNDING AT WILL BE DONE AT 06Z TO GET ANOTHER
ASSESSMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. 32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222356
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222356
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222356
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222356
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
556 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GOING IFR/MVFR THIS EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE RETURNING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65  41 /  90  20  10  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65  42 / 100  20  10  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64  37 /  90  30  10  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65  40 /  90  40  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...
     VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 222243
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65 /  90  20  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65 / 100  20  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64 /  90  30  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CALCASIEU-EAST
     CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 222243
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65 /  90  20  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65 / 100  20  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64 /  90  30  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CALCASIEU-EAST
     CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 222122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE NAILING DOWN TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AND GENERALLY ONLY SMALL
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

BASE OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS CLEARLY INDICATED
ON WV IMAGERY. SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER WEST
TEXAS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WITH A FEW WARNINGS ALREADY BEING ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. GFS AND EURO ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A JET
STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ON THE RISE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL INDICATE THAT PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. 00Z BALLOON DATA WILL GIVE A GOOD INDICATION IF THIS
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS BEST
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NAM AND EURO
INDICATE MAX ML CAPE OVER LAND AROUND 500 J/KG AND THAT WILL ONLY
BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD KEEP STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST
OFF SHORE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL CUT OFF INFLOW OVER LAND AREAS.

THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF PARAMETERS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED OVER LAND AREAS. SR HELICITY PEAKS IN THE 400 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON
LOCATION AND MODEL OF CHOICE...SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
AGAIN...WITH STRONG HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
LOCAL AREA BY ABOUT NOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. IN FACT...WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...AM CURRENTLY
NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER
SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22/TD
MARINE...CAB
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM





000
FXUS64 KLIX 222122
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE NAILING DOWN TIMING AND
EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
OVERALL FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED AND GENERALLY ONLY SMALL
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

BASE OF TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS CLEARLY INDICATED
ON WV IMAGERY. SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER WEST
TEXAS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST TEXAS WITH A FEW WARNINGS ALREADY BEING ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT. GFS AND EURO ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A JET
STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS
THE AREA. PW VALUES ARE ON THE RISE AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDING
STILL INDICATE THAT PW VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. 00Z BALLOON DATA WILL GIVE A GOOD INDICATION IF THIS
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY AS BEST
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING 500 TO 1000 J/KG ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. NAM AND EURO
INDICATE MAX ML CAPE OVER LAND AROUND 500 J/KG AND THAT WILL ONLY
BE NEAR THE COAST. THIS COULD KEEP STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS JUST
OFF SHORE. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION WILL BE WHETHER ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL CUT OFF INFLOW OVER LAND AREAS.

THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF PARAMETERS THAT WOULD
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED OVER LAND AREAS. SR HELICITY PEAKS IN THE 400 TO 600
M2/S2 RANGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DEPENDING ON
LOCATION AND MODEL OF CHOICE...SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SQUALL LINE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SQUALL LINE
AND WHILE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE MOST LIKELY.
AGAIN...WITH STRONG HELICITY...SOME EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT TIMING LOOKS TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
LOCAL AREA BY ABOUT NOON WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST TWO
FRONTS. IN FACT...WHILE TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...AM CURRENTLY
NOT FORECASTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA
MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN TENNESSEE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE
ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH ON MONDAY AND AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL GET ANOTHER
SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  74  53  64 /  80 100  10  10
BTR  62  76  53  64 /  90  90  10  10
ASD  62  76  55  66 /  80 100  10  10
MSY  64  77  57  66 /  80 100  10  10
GPT  63  75  57  67 /  70 100  10  10
PQL  62  75  57  68 /  70 100  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...22/TD
MARINE...CAB
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM






000
FXUS64 KSHV 222047
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER N LA/SW
AR AND EXTREME ERN TX...BUT AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BETWEEN 18-22Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREADS ENE. IN
FACT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER E TX/SE OK
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE
THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
07Z...CLEARING THE E TX TERMINALS BY 10Z...SHV AROUND 12Z...AND
MLU BY 15Z. SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS SW AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ONCE SW
WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTRAIN NEWD. SSE WINDS
10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 222047
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...WITH SFC LOW TRAILING UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NW...AS TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS BIG BEND AREA...WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND HILL COUNTRY BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY. UPPER
LVL DIRECTIONAL DIVERGENCE TO INTENSIFY AS TROUGH DIGS SLIGHTY
MORE THIS EVE...BEFORE PIVOTING AND MOVING ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED EVE POPS WITH...KEEPING CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL LA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY TSTM WINDS IN
FCST...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...AS LOW LVL SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND MID LVL INSTABILITY DECENT. HOWEVER...SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT SVR THREAT...KEEPING IT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
GFS MORE CONSISTENT WITH MORE MODERATE DIGGING OF UPPER
TROUGH...AND SUBSEQUENT QUICKER DRY SLOTTING INTO EAST TX THAN
NAM. THUS...SW-W WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 15 MPH IN DRIER AIR VIA
MIXING FROM 30 TO 40 KT FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS QUICK WARMING SUNDAY
AFTN ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS OK. UPPER TROUGH IN NW FLOW ON TUESDAY...DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH
AND DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY COLD CORE
CONVECTION SO REMOVED ISOLD TSTMS FROM FCST.
APPEARS THAT MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY NEXT
WKND...BUT HAVE NOT ADDDED TO FCST ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER N LA/SW
AR AND EXTREME ERN TX...BUT AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BETWEEN 18-22Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREADS ENE. IN
FACT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER E TX/SE OK
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE
THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
07Z...CLEARING THE E TX TERMINALS BY 10Z...SHV AROUND 12Z...AND
MLU BY 15Z. SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS SW AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ONCE SW
WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTRAIN NEWD. SSE WINDS
10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  76  44  63  37 /  80  20   0  10  10
MLU  60  78  45  62  36 /  90  40   0  10  10
DEQ  57  71  37  59  33 /  90  40  10  10   0
TXK  59  73  41  60  35 /  60  30   0  10   0
ELD  59  73  41  61  36 /  80  40  10  10  10
TYR  59  74  41  62  36 /  80  10   0  10  10
GGG  60  74  41  63  35 /  80  10   0  10  10
LFK  61  78  44  64  37 /  80  10   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221839
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1239 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE AIRPORTS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY AND ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z. STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO HAVE A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS 35 TO 40 KNOTS AS A SQUALL LINES MOVES
THROUGH...SO HAVE ADDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP WITH THESE GUSTS
ALONG WITH LOWER VSBYS AND CIGS DURING THE PERIOD OF TSRA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 221808 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1208 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER N LA/SW
AR AND EXTREME ERN TX...BUT AM EXPECTING MVFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA
TO DEVELOP/SPREAD NNE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX BETWEEN 18-22Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM W TO E AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY AS CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND SPREADS ENE. IN
FACT...IFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVER E TX/SE OK
THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE
THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER
07Z...CLEARING THE E TX TERMINALS BY 10Z...SHV AROUND 12Z...AND
MLU BY 15Z. SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS SW AR/NCNTRL LA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR CIGS SLOWLY SCATTERING
OUT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...ONCE SW
WINDS INCREASE ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ENTRAIN NEWD. SSE WINDS
10-15KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX SLOW TO WORK EASTWARD. A LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...WILL ENTER SE OK AND
THE TYLER AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS BY MIDDAY...SO KEEPING WESTERN
STRIP OF CWA FOR LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...LOWERING POPS
REMAINDER OF REGION FOR AFTN HOURS. THUS...HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTN...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AFTN HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  60  75  46  63 /  30  90  20   0  10
MLU  75  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  69  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  71  57  72  43  60 /  40  90  30   0  10
ELD  73  57  72  43  61 /  30  90  40  10  10
TYR  70  57  75  43  62 /  60  90  10   0  10
GGG  73  58  75  43  63 /  50  90  10   0  10
LFK  73  59  77  46  64 /  50  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 221800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...GUSTY SE WINDS INTO OUR WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE
BROUGHT 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND MVFR CIGS INTO THE LCH AREA.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ASSIST AEX INTO MVFR CIGS IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH BPT ALSO SEEING MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR BPT AND LCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER FOR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS WITH MVFR AT
DUSK LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG TSTMS SHOULD
AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THRU.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LARGELY ON TARGET...WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. INCOMING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AFFIRM THAT CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/LIMITED SEVERE RISK.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE INHERITED WINDS/SEAS WERE OVERDONE
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LATEST GUIDANCE...SO A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO BOTH. THIS RESULTED IN SCA CONDITIONS NOT
DEVELOPING OVER THE 20-60NM ZONES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...AND THE
HAZARD WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  40 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  60 100  20  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  30  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  30 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...GUSTY SE WINDS INTO OUR WESTERN TERMINALS HAVE
BROUGHT 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS AND MVFR CIGS INTO THE LCH AREA.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ASSIST AEX INTO MVFR CIGS IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH BPT ALSO SEEING MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR BPT AND LCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER FOR THE ACADIANA TERMINALS WITH MVFR AT
DUSK LOWERING TO IFR EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG TSTMS SHOULD
AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THRU.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LARGELY ON TARGET...WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. INCOMING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AFFIRM THAT CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/LIMITED SEVERE RISK.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE INHERITED WINDS/SEAS WERE OVERDONE
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LATEST GUIDANCE...SO A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO BOTH. THIS RESULTED IN SCA CONDITIONS NOT
DEVELOPING OVER THE 20-60NM ZONES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...AND THE
HAZARD WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  40 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  60 100  20  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  30  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  30 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX SLOW TO WORK EASTWARD. A LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...WILL ENTER SE OK AND
THE TYLER AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS BY MIDDAY...SO KEEPING WESTERN
STRIP OF CWA FOR LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...LOWERING POPS
REMAINDER OF REGION FOR AFTN HOURS. THUS...HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTN...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AFTN HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
ABOVE 5 MILES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. AFTER 23/00Z
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN SEVERE TURBULENCE. AFTER 06Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME IFR MOST AREAS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  60  75  46  63 /  30  90  20   0  10
MLU  75  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  69  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  71  57  72  43  60 /  40  90  30   0  10
ELD  73  57  72  43  61 /  30  90  40  10  10
TYR  70  57  75  43  62 /  60  90  10   0  10
GGG  73  58  75  43  63 /  50  90  10   0  10
LFK  73  59  77  46  64 /  50  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221702
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX SLOW TO WORK EASTWARD. A LEADING
BATCH OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS...WILL ENTER SE OK AND
THE TYLER AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS BY MIDDAY...SO KEEPING WESTERN
STRIP OF CWA FOR LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...LOWERING POPS
REMAINDER OF REGION FOR AFTN HOURS. THUS...HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTN...AS CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AFTN HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
ABOVE 5 MILES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. AFTER 23/00Z
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN SEVERE TURBULENCE. AFTER 06Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME IFR MOST AREAS. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  60  75  46  63 /  30  90  20   0  10
MLU  75  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  69  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  71  57  72  43  60 /  40  90  30   0  10
ELD  73  57  72  43  61 /  30  90  40  10  10
TYR  70  57  75  43  62 /  60  90  10   0  10
GGG  73  58  75  43  63 /  50  90  10   0  10
LFK  73  59  77  46  64 /  50  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LARGELY ON TARGET...WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. INCOMING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AFFIRM THAT CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/LIMITED SEVERE RISK.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE INHERITED WINDS/SEAS WERE OVERDONE
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LATEST GUIDANCE...SO A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO BOTH. THIS RESULTED IN SCA CONDITIONS NOT
DEVELOPING OVER THE 20-60NM ZONES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...AND THE
HAZARD WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52 /  40 100  20  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52 /  60 100  20  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48 /  30 100  30  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54 /  30 100  80  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 221651
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1051 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FCST LARGELY ON TARGET...WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO BRING THEM BETTER IN LINE WITH LATEST
OBS/TRENDS. INCOMING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AFFIRM THAT CONVECTION
TODAY SHOULD BE LIMITED...GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS. MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ATTENDANT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/LIMITED SEVERE RISK.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...THE INHERITED WINDS/SEAS WERE OVERDONE
COMPARED TO OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LATEST GUIDANCE...SO A DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO BOTH. THIS RESULTED IN SCA CONDITIONS NOT
DEVELOPING OVER THE 20-60NM ZONES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...AND THE
HAZARD WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52 /  40 100  20  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52 /  60 100  20  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48 /  30 100  30  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54 /  30 100  80  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CALCASIEU-EAST CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST
     CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLIX 221437
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY TO ELIMINATE THE HIGHER POPS
THAT BLED OVER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE EVENING
PERIOD. HAVE REDUCED POPS GENERALLY TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS...AND FRANKLY EVEN THAT
MIGHT BE GENEROUS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE LATEST OBSERVATION
TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO ADDITIONAL
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

MARINE...
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  20  90 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  30 100  90  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  30  90 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  30  90 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  20  80 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  20  70 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...95/DM
PREV DISCUSSION...MH/CAB





000
FXUS64 KSHV 221231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
ABOVE 5 MILES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. AFTER 23/00Z
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN SEVERE TURBULENCE. AFTER 06Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME IFR MOST AREAS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 221231
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
631 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
TO BEGIN THE 22/12Z TAF FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT MVFR TO LOW VFR
CIGS WITH AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN AND FOG. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY AND PREVAILING VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE
ABOVE 5 MILES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. AFTER 23/00Z
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...
RESULTING IN SEVERE TURBULENCE. AFTER 06Z CIGS AND VSBYS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME IFR MOST AREAS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221226
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  30  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 221226
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
626 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ATTM. RAINS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP AND
WINDS PICKING UP. RAINS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WX
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  20  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  30  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221100 CCA
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
458 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE WATERS. A DEEPENING SFC
LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS AND INTO WRN
TENNESSEE. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS STRONG THROUGH SUN WITH ONSHORE
FLOW. THE PERSISTENT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES BEGINNING LATER TODAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE MARINE ZONES LATE TODAY AND
THROUGH SUN MORNING UNTIL A SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH LATE MON BUT AS THIS HAPPENS WINDS WILL
GET ANOTHER SURGE BACK INTO SCY CRITERIA. MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
PLAYING /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...TAFS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 0Z. BY THAT TIME THOUGH CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE REGION AND TAFS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD
DOWNHILL THROUGH THE NIGHT. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
             COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
             ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 221028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
428 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST
IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND THE OUTLOOK BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER. THE STORM PREDICTION UPGRADED THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER OUR AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
THE SLOWING TREND IN THE FORECAST AND DOES NOT REALLY GET
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AT LEAST THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THE NEW TIMING AND THREAT TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

DIGGING INTO SOME OF THE PARAMETERS AND SOUNDINGS THERE ARE A FEW
ALARMING THINGS THAT SHOW UP IN THE DATA. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE A
PROBLEM AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE KINEMATICS AND LIFT WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS SHEAR AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FEW THINGS THAT ARE ALARMING COME TO
LIGHT AS YOU LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE GFS IS MORE OMINOUS
THAN THE NAM. THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES APPROACHING THE 400 M2/S2 BY 9Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH CAPE
VALUES OF 1600 J/KG AT KMSY. THE SAME VALUES ARE ALSO DEPICTED AT
KASD...AND ALSO FOR KGPT BY 12Z. IF THESE VALUES WERE TO VERIFY
THERE COULD BE SOME DANGEROUS STORMS ONGOING IN THE WEE HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWER AND NOT AS STRONG AND DOES NOT
PAINT THE SAME PICTURE. THE NAM PARAMETERS KEEP THE HIGHEST VALUES
OUT OVER THE GULF AND THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MIDDLE OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. OF COURSE WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT
HAPPENS TODAY AND SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH WILL GREATLY HAVE A INFLUENCE
ON THE SEVERITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST STORMS AND SQUALL
LINE. THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS THAT WERE DISCUSSED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXIST. THE MAIN ONE THAT I SEE THAT COULD
HAPPENING IS ANY CONVECTION OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS COULD
LIMIT THE INFLOW AND DAMPEN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE LAND. SO THIS
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.

WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE MAIN MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO COME IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA ANY STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRODUCING TORNADOES. THERE ALSO IS A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE ARE STILL THINKING THAT 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT AND WITH THE AREA
BEING FAIRLY DRY WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE E COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR POUNDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL DECISION WITH THAT.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS FROM BAY
SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AND NO CHANGES WERE REALLY MADE AFTER
MONDAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRY.

WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THE MAIN TAKE AWAY SHOULD BE PLEASE
STAY ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION FOR LATER ON THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CHECK OUR SOCIAL
MEDIA PAGES AND OUR MAIN WEBSITE FOR THE LATEST TODAY IN REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FCST. ONLY ISSUE AT THIS TIME WOULD BE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG AT THE NORMAL PROBLEM SITES...MCB/ASD/GPT/HDC. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
MULTIPLE IMPACTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATER LIKELY
THROUGH THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS A
VERY STRONG LATE FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A MULTITUDE OF ISSUES
TO THE REGION WITH SOME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TODAY. DEVELOPING SFC
LOW IN TX AND STRONG HIGH CNTRD OVER THE TOBACCO ROAD REGION WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH ERLY FLOW PICKING
UP TO AROUND AROUND 15-20 KTS BY MIDDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY ABV 20 KTS. WITH THAT WE WILL ISSUE A SCY
BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY AND HAVE IT RUN THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN.
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR AT LEAST REISSUED LATE
SUN/MON. THE SCY WILL EXPAND AT 12Z SAT TO INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES
AND SOUNDS. THE STRONG WIND AND PERSISTENT ERLY TO SERLY FLOW TODAY
THROUGH SUN MORNING WILL LEAD TO WATER PILING UP ON THE COAST. WITH
THAT A COASTAL FLOOD ADV HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO IT. LAST OF COURSE WILL BE CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION SAT AFTN WITH A SQUALL LINE ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT SAT AND EARLY SUN MORNING. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  60  77  53 /  50 100 100  10
BTR  73  63  78  55 /  60 100 100  10
ASD  72  63  78  58 /  50 100 100  10
MSY  73  65  78  60 /  60 100 100  10
GPT  69  64  76  60 /  50 100 100  10
PQL  69  63  76  60 /  50 100 100  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
     PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  10  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  20  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  10  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  20  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  10  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  20  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 221004
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
404 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST....WITH
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ELEVATED THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.

AS THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE TX...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
SPC HAS REGION IN MARGINAL RISK...INCREASING TO SLIGHT TOWARDS
ACADIANA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION EARLY SUN MORNING.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION...SW WINDS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE SUN...BUT PRECIP ENDING. THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE A BIT DELAYED...NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SUN
NIGHT/EARLY MON.

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. WITH
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SEVERAL COOL RE-
ENFORCING HIGHS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...KEEPING TEMPS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.

DML

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS...SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL ZONES...UPGRADING TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BY 18Z FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 12Z SUN. THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

DML

&&

.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE TIDAL LEVELS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF SE TX/LA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL LAKES AND
BAYS. WITH THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 2 FEET OVERNIGHT...TOTAL
TIDAL LEVELS COULD REACH 3.5 TO 4.0 FEET MLLW.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  62  76  52  66 /  50 100  20  10  10
KBPT  70  62  77  52  65 /  80 100  10  10  10
KAEX  71  60  77  48  65 /  30 100  20  10  10
KLFT  73  63  77  54  67 /  40 100  80  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220959
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220959
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220959
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220959
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO THIS MORNING MAKING
ITS WAY INTO TX PER WV IMAGERY. TSTMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF N TX/SRN OK AS A RESULT...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS THE
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND A DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROF.
DESPITE THE STRENGTH AND NEGATIVE TILT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX.

RAIN WILL END FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FOR PARTS OF SW
AR...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD END BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
IN THE BROAD-SCALE FLOW WILL PUSH EWD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION DURING SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PULL OUR
RECENT RUN OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVES/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
HOLD OUR TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PD. RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS WEEKEND ARE MISSING HOWEVER...AS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NONEXISTENT THIS WEEK. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  60  75  46  63 /  40  90  20   0  10
MLU  72  58  75  47  62 /  20  90  40   0  10
DEQ  66  55  72  39  59 /  60  90  40  10  10
TXK  68  57  72  43  60 /  50  90  30   0  10
ELD  70  57  72  43  61 /  20  90  40  10  10
TYR  67  57  75  43  62 /  70  90  10   0  10
GGG  70  58  75  43  63 /  60  90  10   0  10
LFK  70  59  77  46  64 /  60  90  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220601
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS. ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TERMINAL SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH WINDS OF 8-13 KNOTS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WHERE A MORE TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 8-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER TO THE WEST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KSHV 220601
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA ...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS. ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MVFR AND
IFR CATEGORIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE TERMINAL SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH WINDS OF 8-13 KNOTS FOR EAST AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
WHERE A MORE TIGHTLY PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOTED. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 8-14 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVER TO THE WEST. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 220531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 220531
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
WELL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST PERIOD. 11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 220527
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 220527
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220402 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHWRS HAVE BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MAINLY BEEN CONFINED S OF A LINE FROM KTYR TO KELD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
TRENDS. BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE...AND THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP...IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX. STEERING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE AREA ALONG AND N OF I-30 DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS. LATEST
MODELS HAVE ALSO COME IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER REGARDING THE MAIN ROUND
OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 23/00Z.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  40  40  90  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  50  30  90  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  40  60  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  40  50  90  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  50  40  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  30  70  90  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  40  60  90  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  50  60  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KLCH 220313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 220313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 220313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 220313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 220154
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR. MOSTLY VFR FOR FOR REMAINING
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH SOME MVFR CATEGORIES
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS LATER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE AREA OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CONVECTION COMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 8-14 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 220048
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
648 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH PW VALUES INCREASING BY .15 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY. BELOW
850MB...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS NOTED AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AROUND 850 TO 750MB...SOME WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW REMAINS.
THIS NORTHEAST FLOW HAS KEPT A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THIS
LAYER...AND HAS RESULTED IN A CONTINUED STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION
OF AROUND 3 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY
WAS CAPPED OFF AT AROUND 5000 FEET.  32


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  20  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 212336
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  20  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 212229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78 /  10  50  90  20
KBPT  59  72  63  77 /  10  60  90  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77 /  20  30  90  30
KLFT  54  73  63  79 /  10  30  90  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13





000
FXUS64 KLCH 212229
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78 /  10  50  90  20
KBPT  59  72  63  77 /  10  60  90  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77 /  20  30  90  30
KLFT  54  73  63  79 /  10  30  90  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13






000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KLIX 212159
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
359 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED...BUT TIMING HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WITH THE 12Z RUN. THIS
PUTS THE MAIN THREAT TIMING FOR THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT...
HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE LA COAST FOR AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY BASED ON THE
SLOWING TRENDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SPC STILL INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THEY TOO ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE RISK WILL
BLEED INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AFTER A FEW DAYS OF SOLID RETURN FLOW.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PW VALUES REACHING THE 1.75 TO 2
INCH RANGE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL ALSO BE EASY TO COME BY
WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL WITH ML CAPE VALUES
TOPPING OUT LESS THAN 500 J/KG FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
CLOSER TO THE COAST...ML CAPE IS FORECAST IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CAPE. THIS SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS...HOWEVER. FIRST
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING OVER
COASTAL AREAS DUE TO WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 60 DEGREES IN SOME
OF THE SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS FOLLOWING RECENT COLD SNAPS. IF
A MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN ELEVATED. OF
MORE CONCERN...HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TO LIMIT INFLOW
INTO ANY STORMS OVER LAND.

MAIN HAZARD CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...THOUGH PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
EMBEDDED ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP ROTATING UPDRAFTS GIVEN SRH VALUES RANGING
FROM AROUND 200 M2/S2 SOUTH TO NEARLY 600 M2/S2 NORTH. ANY
STRONGER ROTATING UPDRAFTS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGER HAIL...THOUGH THIS IS THE LEAST LIKELY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER MODES.

MOVING ON TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AREA AVERAGE QPF VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHOULDN/T BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH PW
VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND WE COULD SEE SOME NUISANCE
TYPE STREET FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. HPC IS INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS...WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS. IF QPF TOTALS
BEGIN TO SHOW AN UPWARD TREND OR IF THE FORECAST HEAVIER TOTALS
FROM OVER WATER SHIFT NORTHWARD...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A FLASH
FLOOD OR FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.

LAST HAZARD TO TALK ABOUT WITH THIS EVENT IS THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TIDAL RISES ON EAST FACING SHORES. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME MINOR/NUISANCE COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF LEVEE PROTECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON
SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY NOON. COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR WITH
IT. A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT IT
TO COME THROUGH DRYLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALL LOCATIONS
THOUGH SOME EARLY RETURN OF MARINE LAYER AIR MAY LOWER CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGH END MVFR AT KHUM BEFORE OR NEAR DAYBREAK. INFLUX OF MARINE
LAYER INLAND WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT LOW END VFR OR HIGH
END MVFR MUCH OF SATURDAY. HELD OFF ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL
PERHAPS AFTER 23/00Z WHEN BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE STEADILY INCREASING DUE TO EASTERLY GRADIENT AT
THIS TIME. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM
OVER TEXAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FUNNEL INTO EAST-FACING SHORES FOR ENHANCED TIDE LEVELS UNTIL AT
LEAST SQUALL LINE PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE OPEN WATERS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH RANDOM 10-11
FEET ON LONG PERIOD SWELL TRAIN BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL PASSSAGE MONDAY WILL THEN BRING NORTHERLY FLOW TO
DAMPEN SWELL COMPONENT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             ASSESSING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY
             MONITORING COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  70  60  77 /  10  20  90  60
BTR  49  73  63  78 /  10  30  90  50
ASD  49  72  62  78 /  10  30  90  70
MSY  57  73  65  78 /  10  40  90  60
GPT  51  69  64  76 /  10  30  90  80
PQL  46  69  62  76 /  10  30  80  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...ORLEANS...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.

MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND HANCOCK.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...LAKE
     BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS...AND
     MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/MARINE...24/RR
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM







000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 212111
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
311 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF SHOWERS...CENTERED ACROSS EAST TX LAKES AND NW LA...STILL
IN PLACE...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL RATES.
STRONGER CONVECTION OVER TX HILL COUNTRY MOVG NWD AND LIKELY TO
MOSTLY MISS AREA TO THE WEST TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NE TX. UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY
APPEARING TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN DAY AS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH...
ALLOWING SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS SFC LOW
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THE DAY SAT
WITH THIS SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF TROUGH AND DECENT CAPPING
BTWN 900-850 MB. NAM SHOWS A FURTHER SWD SHIFT THAN DOES GFS AND
ECMWF. STGR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS IN TSTMS FOR LOWER NE TX SATURDAY
EVENING...IN ADDITION TO MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVHD SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING RAIN WILL QUICKLY DRY
SLOT...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SW WINDS BRINGING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN.

COOL FRONT TO MOVE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING TEMPS BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY COLD CORE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTAIN MEAGER MOISTURE
IN LOW LVLS...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH STG UPDRAFTS...POTENTIAL HAILERS IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
FOR NOW...WILL JUST ADD ISOLD TSTMS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY. REMAINDER
OF EXTENDED PERIOD THRU THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY IS BACK IN ZONAL FLOW
WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED AND CONTINUED SEASONAL TEMPS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  69  56  75  47 /  60  40  60  20   0
MLU  50  72  55  77  49 /  40  30  80  30   0
DEQ  53  65  53  71  42 /  60  50  90  30  10
TXK  52  66  54  73  44 /  60  50  80  30   0
ELD  50  69  54  72  46 /  40  30  90  40  10
TYR  57  65  54  75  44 /  70  50  80  10   0
GGG  55  69  55  75  45 /  70  50  80  20   0
LFK  56  69  56  78  48 /  70  50  90  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KSHV 211753 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR...AS AREAS OF -RA
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM SE TX.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN NW VIA
A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE
OUT PATCHY MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SHV
TERMINAL GIVEN THE AREAS OF SHRA OVER E TX MOVING NE...WHICH MAY
RETARD THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THESE SCT SHRA MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT OVER E TX/SW AR/EXTREME NW LA...WITH ISOLATED -TSRA
POSSIBLE LATE. OTHERWISE...THESE SHRA MAY DIMINISH FROM S TO N BY
MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS TIME OVER E TX/NW LA/SW AR. SE WINDS 5-10KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15






000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 211742
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...A MOISTURE AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR
TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. VCSH AROUND BPT AND LCH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING FROM THE WEST. MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND BPT AND LCH WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO THE EAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND LOWERING CONDITIONS WILL BE
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD OF THIS TAF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
INHERITED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TWEAKS/ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA/TRENDS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS AMID
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WRN LA WITHIN REGION OF BROAD ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. FCST HIGHS WERE NUDGED DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL MAY PROVE
OPTIMISTIC OVER THE WRN THIRD OR SO OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER/PCPN IS THUS FAR IMPEDING MUCH OF A WARM UP DESPITE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL WAA.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA OVER SE TX/SW & C LA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING VCSH FOR BPT/LCH AEX DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THRU 16Z FOR BPT. SE
WINDS INCREASING 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS FOR BPT/LCH
AFTER 15Z...SOMEWHAT LESS FOR AEX/LFT/ARA. WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESE
WINDS WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...LIKELY STAYING NEAR 8-10 KTS.
MID LEVEL OVC CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION...BUT
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS AND SFC OBS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING
ACROSS THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND A PASSING WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AS ADDITIONAL WEAK
ENERGY ALOFT APPROACHES THE REGION AND DAYTIME HEATING ENHANCES
LOW-LEVEL LIFT. SPEAKING OF WHICH OUR WARMING TREND HAS GONE AS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...AND EXPECTING MAXES MAYBE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY GIVEN DECENT CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BACKTRACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A MORE SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...TAKING WEAK RIPPLES OF ENERGY FARTHER NWD.

STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS A STRONG SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
SIERRA NEVADA PUSHES FARTHER SEWD TOWARD THE WRN GULF REGION. A
SFC REFLECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. LATEST SUITE OF MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALONG AN AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING OVER CNTL TX. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WRN ZONES AROUND MID-EVENING...THE BORDER AREAS OF
W-CNTL/SWRN LA TOWARD MIDNIGHT...FINALLY DEPARTING THE ERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS LINE...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN GOOD
SHEAR AND CAPES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A FEW DISCRETE ROTATING
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. BIGGEST FLY IN
THE OINTMENT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE LACK OF
INSTABILITY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. STAY TUNED...

PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE ON SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA
BASIN...AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY EJECTS NEWD AND A DRIER NEAR
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
IS PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...SOME MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS ATTM. REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING.

MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED OUT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL POSSIBLY SEE SOME SCA
WINDS AT SOME POINT AS THE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS. A QUICK SHOT
OF INCREASED SWRLY FLOW IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BEHIND THE PASSING
LOW BEFORE IT PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  55  73  62  77 /  20  10  80  90  10
KBPT  73  60  74  63  78 /  40  20  80  90  10
KAEX  69  52  72  60  78 /  20  20  60  90  10
KLFT  72  55  72  63  80 /  10  10  70  90  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$







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