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000
FXUS64 KSHV 010013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS AREA...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AT KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TO A LOW VFR...WITH
TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME VERY LGT RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE MVFR
DECKS...WITH RAINFALL BECMG HEAVIER AS CIGS BECOMING LOW MVFR TO
IFR BY 01/06Z ACROSS NE TX AND AREAWIDE AFTER 01/12Z. WITH WARM
NOSE ABOVE SFC...NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ALOFT. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING FROM THE S-SW WITH HEIGHT. RAINFALL MAY SUBSIDE ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA AFTER 01/18Z FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT STEEP LOW LVL
INVERSION WILL KEEP CIGS MOSTLY IN IFR THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER IN NIGHT AFTER THE COMPLETION OF
THIS FCST CYCLE. /VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS...NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MC CURTAIN COUNTY...WHERE READINGS ARE AROUND 32. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SO LIGHT THAT ICING SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO CLIMB ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE NIGHTFALL...AND
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE OVER A RETREATING AREA OF
COOL SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER CONVECTION AHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A COLD RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  55  46  53  53 /  30  70  60  60  40
MLU  42  57  46  51  51 /  20  70  60  60  30
DEQ  35  47  40  44  44 /  50  30  60  50  50
TXK  34  48  40  46  46 /  50  70  60  60  50
ELD  37  50  41  47  47 /  30  70  60  60  40
TYR  36  51  45  53  53 /  50  40  60  60  40
GGG  38  55  45  54  54 /  50  60  60  60  40
LFK  47  62  54  62  62 /  30  70  60  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 010013
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
613 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS AREA...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO LOWER AT KTYR...KGGG...AND KTXK TO A LOW VFR...WITH
TEMPO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. SOME VERY LGT RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE MVFR
DECKS...WITH RAINFALL BECMG HEAVIER AS CIGS BECOMING LOW MVFR TO
IFR BY 01/06Z ACROSS NE TX AND AREAWIDE AFTER 01/12Z. WITH WARM
NOSE ABOVE SFC...NO SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ALOFT. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING FROM THE S-SW WITH HEIGHT. RAINFALL MAY SUBSIDE ACROSS MUCH
OF AREA AFTER 01/18Z FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT STEEP LOW LVL
INVERSION WILL KEEP CIGS MOSTLY IN IFR THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER IN NIGHT AFTER THE COMPLETION OF
THIS FCST CYCLE. /VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS...NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MC CURTAIN COUNTY...WHERE READINGS ARE AROUND 32. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SO LIGHT THAT ICING SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO CLIMB ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE NIGHTFALL...AND
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE OVER A RETREATING AREA OF
COOL SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER CONVECTION AHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A COLD RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  55  46  53  53 /  30  70  60  60  40
MLU  42  57  46  51  51 /  20  70  60  60  30
DEQ  35  47  40  44  44 /  50  30  60  50  50
TXK  34  48  40  46  46 /  50  70  60  60  50
ELD  37  50  41  47  47 /  30  70  60  60  40
TYR  36  51  45  53  53 /  50  40  60  60  40
GGG  38  55  45  54  54 /  50  60  60  60  40
LFK  47  62  54  62  62 /  30  70  60  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 282313
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO MVFR...THEN IFR...WITH LIFR
VSBY/CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUN.
ALOFT...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHRA BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PLACING EMPHASIS ON SUN AFTERNOON WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR
+SHRA.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 282133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 282133
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PROVIDING A MORE ERLY TO ESERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED NICELY TO THIS SHIFT IN
WINDS WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S OVER ACADIANA...
WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO THE UPPER 30S/40S AREA-WIDE. WITH THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS COME A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY
OVER THE WRN 1/2 OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER.

WITH THIS SLIGHT UPTICK IN PRECIP TODAY HAVE BUMPED FIRST PERIOD
POPS UP SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE AS INCREASING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
WEAK ENERGY FROM PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WSWRLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
COASTAL TROF NOTED IN SFC ANALYSIS WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE UP THE
COAST INTO TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE POPS. FINALLY
CANNOT RULE OUT FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN THE
BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING. POPS IN THE EARLY PERIODS PEAK
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION...
PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER THIS BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO WASH OUT/LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SMALL POPS PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION.

STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD/ALONG IT. BIG QUESTION ATTM
REMAINS RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE BEHIND IT AS GOOD
OVERRUNNING AND CAA IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY
FREEZING/FROZEN WEATHER OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZONES AS WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT DAY 4/5...HOWEVER THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE LOOKED AT MUCH MORE
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN CURRENT POPS/TEMPS. SMALL
POPS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN DIFFERING LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HOW QUICKLY POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE REGION. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS
OF THIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE INHERITED SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UP TO 7 FEET OUT NEAR THE 60 NM MARK. OTHERWISE ERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE SERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WHILE DIMINISHING
GRADUALLY. NEXT ROUND OF SCA WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE NWRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  70  61  70  62 /  30  40  40  40  20
KBPT  54  71  61  70  63 /  30  40  40  50  30
KAEX  46  67  55  62  57 /  20  50  60  60  30
KLFT  53  71  62  70  63 /  20  40  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSHV 282129
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED ABOVE ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF RED RIVER COUNTY TEXAS...NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MC CURTAIN COUNTY...WHERE READINGS ARE AROUND 32. RAINFALL HAS
BEEN SO LIGHT THAT ICING SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM. LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO CLIMB ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES BEFORE NIGHTFALL...AND
HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MOISTURE OVER A RETREATING AREA OF
COOL SURFACE AIR. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER CONVECTION AHEAD
TUESDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING A COLD RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. WEATHER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  55  46  53  53 /  30  70  60  60  40
MLU  42  57  46  51  51 /  20  70  60  60  30
DEQ  35  47  40  44  44 /  50  30  60  50  50
TXK  34  48  40  46  46 /  50  70  60  60  50
ELD  37  50  41  47  47 /  30  70  60  60  40
TYR  36  51  45  53  53 /  50  40  60  60  40
GGG  38  55  45  54  54 /  50  60  60  60  40
LFK  47  62  54  62  62 /  30  70  60  60  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 282120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 282120
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER RIDE WILL CONTINUE THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY TO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTS BACKS INTO THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN STEAM WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL EXIST EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING.

THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THREAT
FOR WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT LOUISIANA PARISHES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...AS COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA BEFORE ALL THE
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SLEET WOULD BE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IF ANY WINTER
PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW TO
SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THESE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE EASING SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE LOCATIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADVERTISED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS MINUS THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK AND BE MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. 11

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  40  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  20  30  30
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  20  30
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
102 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ONLY FEW
TO SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  45  66  55  67 /  10  30  30  50
BTR  48  69  58  70 /  10  30  30  50
ASD  49  66  55  69 /  10  30  30  40
MSY  52  67  57  71 /  10  30  30  40
GPT  49  65  55  68 /  10  20  30  30
PQL  47  66  53  68 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUDS STREAMING NE ACRS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE HIGH
SC/LOW AC RANGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHCS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ OR VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT REACHES THE
GROUND HERE AND THERE. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SELY AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO LOW MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z. THESE
LOWER CIGS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG AS WELL. IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER CHCS
INCREASING AT BPT/LCH/AEX AS A TROF OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SE
TX. MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER
MORE SELY SUNDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON TEMP GRIDS TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS/NEIGHBORS GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS FALLING
OUT OF THEM...SO FAR NO OBS WEST OF THE SABINE HAVE REPORTED RAIN
EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  50  69  60 /  10  20  40  40
KBPT  57  54  70  62 /  10  20  40  40
KAEX  57  46  68  56 /  10  20  50  60
KLFT  60  51  71  61 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUDS STREAMING NE ACRS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE HIGH
SC/LOW AC RANGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHCS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ OR VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT REACHES THE
GROUND HERE AND THERE. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SELY AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO LOW MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z. THESE
LOWER CIGS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG AS WELL. IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER CHCS
INCREASING AT BPT/LCH/AEX AS A TROF OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SE
TX. MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER
MORE SELY SUNDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON TEMP GRIDS TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS/NEIGHBORS GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS FALLING
OUT OF THEM...SO FAR NO OBS WEST OF THE SABINE HAVE REPORTED RAIN
EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  50  69  60 /  10  20  40  40
KBPT  57  54  70  62 /  10  20  40  40
KAEX  57  46  68  56 /  10  20  50  60
KLFT  60  51  71  61 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 281800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUDS STREAMING NE ACRS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE HIGH
SC/LOW AC RANGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHCS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ OR VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT REACHES THE
GROUND HERE AND THERE. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SELY AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO LOW MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z. THESE
LOWER CIGS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG AS WELL. IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER CHCS
INCREASING AT BPT/LCH/AEX AS A TROF OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SE
TX. MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER
MORE SELY SUNDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON TEMP GRIDS TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS/NEIGHBORS GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS FALLING
OUT OF THEM...SO FAR NO OBS WEST OF THE SABINE HAVE REPORTED RAIN
EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  50  69  60 /  10  20  40  40
KBPT  57  54  70  62 /  10  20  40  40
KAEX  57  46  68  56 /  10  20  50  60
KLFT  60  51  71  61 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281800
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
28/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUDS STREAMING NE ACRS THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE HIGH
SC/LOW AC RANGE. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHCS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE
TODAY...THERE COULD BE SOME -DZ OR VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT REACHES THE
GROUND HERE AND THERE. OVERALL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS LOW LVL WINDS BECOME MORE SELY AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE SFC. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO LOW MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 08-12Z. THESE
LOWER CIGS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG AS WELL. IFR CIGS AND
MVFR/IFR FOG WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER CHCS
INCREASING AT BPT/LCH/AEX AS A TROF OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER SE
TX. MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...THEN VEER
MORE SELY SUNDAY MORNING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON TEMP GRIDS TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS/NEIGHBORS GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS FALLING
OUT OF THEM...SO FAR NO OBS WEST OF THE SABINE HAVE REPORTED RAIN
EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  57  50  69  60 /  10  20  40  40
KBPT  57  54  70  62 /  10  20  40  40
KAEX  57  46  68  56 /  10  20  50  60
KLFT  60  51  71  61 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281744
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR OVC CIGS ACROSS CWA STILL HOLDING...ALTHOUGH CIGS
BEGINNING TO LOWER TO LOW VFR FROM THE WEST AT KTYR AND KLFK.
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT VIRGA NEAR KTXK FROM MID LVL DECKS...WITH
THIS LGT PRECIP ALOFT LIKELY CLOSE TO EITHER SIDE OF FRZG LINE.
CIGS TO QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND
01/00Z...AND LIKELY CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER NE TX TO IFR BY AROUND
01/06Z AS RAIN BEGINS TO INCREASE. ENTIRE CWA CLOUD BASES WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT...BECMG IFR WITH RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
BTWN 01/12-18Z. E-NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG LIGHTER OVERNIGHT./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281706
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1106 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON TEMP GRIDS TO FALL BETTER IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS/NEIGHBORS GRIDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SEE IF ANYTHING STARTS FALLING
OUT OF THEM...SO FAR NO OBS WEST OF THE SABINE HAVE REPORTED RAIN
EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  58  52  70  61  72 /  10  20  40  40  40
KBPT  57  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  57  46  68  56  63 /  10  20  50  60  60
KLFT  60  51  70  61  73 /  10  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ATTM. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A EL DORADO ARKANSAS TO QUITMAN TEXAS LINE. THUS PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO REMAINING BEFORE EXPIRATION...WILL JUST LET
IT EXPIRE. BY THEN...MOST OF THE NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HAVE WATCH MCCURTAIN AND SEVIER COUNTY
TEMPS...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TRAP THE COLD AIR INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
CURRENT RAIN IN THE AREA MAY HAVE A SLIGHT WET BULB EFFECT.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS OK. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IN LOUISIANA
ZONES SHOULD ONLY BRING TRACE AMOUNTS...SO WILL LEAVE POPS AT 10
PERCENT IN THIS AREA. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY BEFORE
NOON...PRIOR TO THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281307
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
707 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. A 12 F TEMPERATURE
INVERSION IS PRESENT FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND THERE IS AN
ELEVATED INVERSION AT 625 MB. WINDS ARE EASTERLY IN THE INVERSION
LAYER NEAR THE SFC AND BECOME WESTERLY ABOVE. THE PROFILE IS
SATURATED ONLY IN A BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER AT 120 FT. PEAK
WIND IS 105 KTS AT 175 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09





000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 281157
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 28/12Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED AREAS
OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. LOWEST LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
ARE QUITE DRY AND MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THE FEW REPORTS WHICH HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SUGGEST SNOW IS
FALLING NORTH OF I-30 BUT A MIX OF FZDZ AND SLEET IS FALLING
FARTHER SOUTH. PRECIP WILL BECOME ALL LIQUID RAIN BY MID MORNING
AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER 01/00Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS SECOND ROUND
ARRIVES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KTYR WHICH COULD SEE SOME
PRECIP BEFORE NOON. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AFFECTING THE TAF SITES
BEFORE 01/00Z WAS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO PREVAIL UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD DETERIORATE INTO AT LEAST THE
MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05/05/09






000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 281153
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
553 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
WITHIN VFR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RISES UP AND OVER COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
INTO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS
IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER LAYERS
LIFTED SQUEEZING ANY MOISTURE OUT. AS AIR REPLACES THE JET AIR
FROM BENEATH...SOME MODERATE UPSLOPE OF THETA BOUDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE GULF
INTO TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD SNEAK ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE LA.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS
IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER LAYERS
LIFTED SQUEEZING ANY MOISTURE OUT. AS AIR REPLACES THE JET AIR
FROM BENEATH...SOME MODERATE UPSLOPE OF THETA BOUDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE GULF
INTO TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD SNEAK ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE LA.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 281033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS
IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER LAYERS
LIFTED SQUEEZING ANY MOISTURE OUT. AS AIR REPLACES THE JET AIR
FROM BENEATH...SOME MODERATE UPSLOPE OF THETA BOUDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE GULF
INTO TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD SNEAK ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE LA.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 281033
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BRINGING RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF STARTING TUESDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WINDS
IN THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP LOWER LAYERS
LIFTED SQUEEZING ANY MOISTURE OUT. AS AIR REPLACES THE JET AIR
FROM BENEATH...SOME MODERATE UPSLOPE OF THETA BOUDARIES WILL
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY OVER THE GULF
INTO TEXAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD SNEAK ONSHORE OF EXTREME SE LA.

.LONG TERM...
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TUESDAY AND WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT POLAR
COLD FRONT. A QUICK WARM UP FOR AN INTENSE COOLING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TEMP ROLLER COASTER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. TIMING
WILL BE THE QUESTION WITH THIS FRONT AS THE MAIN FORCING MOVES
RAPIDLY NE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE
FRONT TO BECOME SHALLOW AND BUCKLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS SLOWING IT
SOMEWHAT. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. IF SLOWING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PUT THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT
4 TO 6 HOURS LATER. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SYSTEMS FUTURE
RESOLUTION. THE UPPER JET STAYS OVER THE GULF SOUTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT CAUSING LIFTING OF SUBSEQUENT LOWER LAYERS AS
THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES A LOT OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE JET.
THIS WOULD NOT LEAD TO A GOOD DAY FOR THE GULF SOUTH. WHETHER THAT
TAKES PLACE HERE OR FARTHER NORTH OR AT ALL REMAINS TO BE
RESOLVED. THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FEATURE IS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE SHOULD SEE THIS JET MOVE OVER ALASKA
LATER TODAY AND MAYBE THE 00Z RAOB DATA WILL CATCH A PORTION OF IT
TO GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER IDEA OF WHAT AND WHERE THINGS WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO OVC060 TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE EAST AT
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NE AND STRONG ENOUGH FOR CAUTION STATEMENTS OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...MAINLY SOUND AREAS. ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME EASING
OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW WILL START TUE AS ANOTHER IN
A LINE OF CANADIAN COLD FRONTS MAKES ITS WAY TO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
MID WEEK.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  45  66  54 /   0  10  30  30
BTR  61  48  69  56 /   0  10  30  30
ASD  59  50  65  54 /   0  10  30  30
MSY  58  52  67  57 /   0  10  30  30
GPT  58  50  64  53 /   0  10  20  30
PQL  60  48  65  52 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280933
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280933
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280933
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280933
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAK CAA IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE IN THE LOW 30S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
BACK IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. RADAR AND FEW OBS
DO SHOW SOME SPRINKLES THAT ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL ADDRESS THE SPRINKLES THIS MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MEASURABLE TODAY. IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT...THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AREA
WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THE LAKES REGION OF TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THIS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE THE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY ALONG HIGHWAY 190. BEFORE WASHING OUT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS KICK IN AREA WIDE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SOME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT STILL
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN WITH A CHANCE POP.

THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC ALL BRING A STRONG FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS USED AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

GREATEST QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST IS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WITH
THE GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH COLDER WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY
AT THE MOST EXTREME. THE 00Z GFS ALSO PRODUCES A REAL GOOD
FREEZING RAIN SIGNAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON
THURSDAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN A LESS EXTREME
DEVIATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS ON THE CUSP OF HAVING TO INTRODUCE SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME AFTER COORDINATION
DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND HOLD OFF FOR
ANOTHER FEW MODEL RUNS AS IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. STAY TUNED
FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

AFTER THURSDAY PRECIPITATION MOVES OFF WITH A POTENTIAL HARD
FREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS PUTTING
THE CHANCE OF A HARD FREEZE AT 20-40 PERCENT NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO LAFAYETTE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT AS CAA
CONTINUES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEING
TO RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  60  52  70  61  72 /   0  20  40  40  40
KBPT  59  54  70  62  74 /  10  20  40  40  50
KAEX  58  46  68  56  63 /   0  20  50  60  60
KLFT  62  51  70  61  73 /   0  20  40  40  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

27

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280925
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
325 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...CASS...MARION...GREGG...AND HARRISON
COUNTIES. ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 REMAINS SNOW WITH AREAS SOUTH EXPERIENCING A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

ALL PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFTS EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S BY MONDAY MORNING.

A WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE
ALOFT OVERRUNS AN A RETREATING AREA OF COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS RESULTING FROM UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE IN THE WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  43  57  47  54 /  20  40  60  60  60
MLU  52  43  59  47  53 /  10  30  60  60  60
DEQ  38  34  49  39  46 /  40  60  60  60  50
TXK  40  36  50  40  47 /  30  60  60  60  60
ELD  45  38  52  42  49 /  20  40  60  60  60
TYR  42  40  53  46  53 /  50  60  60  60  60
GGG  46  42  57  46  54 /  30  60  60  60  60
LFK  53  48  64  56  63 /  10  40  60  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 280559
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AROUND
15 KNOTS AT KNEW THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WILL KEEP SATURATION A TAD OUT OF REACH. THEREFORE...FOG
OR MIST IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY 06Z. SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE AND
THE THREAT OF MIST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS KMCB...KBTR...KHDC AND KASD.
18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280559
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1159 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AROUND
15 KNOTS AT KNEW THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY MORNING. DECENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION WILL KEEP SATURATION A TAD OUT OF REACH. THEREFORE...FOG
OR MIST IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY 06Z. SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE AND
THE THREAT OF MIST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS KMCB...KBTR...KHDC AND KASD.
18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 280503
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1103 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015


.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...WITH LOWER CLOUD CIGS JUST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF AREA STILL POSSIBLY ALLOWING CLOUD BASES TO FALL AT
KTXK...KTYR...AND POSSIBLY KGGG. LGT SNOW OR POSSIBLE FRZG DRIZZLE
AT THESE SITES OUT OF LOW VFR TO OCNL MVFR DECKS. HOWEVER...CLOUD
TOPS TOO LOW FOR MUCH IN WAY OF SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING BELOW FRZG THRU AT LEAST
28/15Z...PRECIP MAY NOT MELT ON SURFACES THRU MID TO LATE MORNING.
SOME BINOVC POSSIBLE WITH DRY SLOTTING ALOFT SAT AFTN.
HOWEVER...RAPID RETURN OF MOISTURE FROM WEST AS SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO AREA...WITH LGT RAIN POSSIBLE OVER NE TX AFTER 01/00Z. SFC
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NE-E AT 5 TO 10 KTS THRU PERIOD./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 280423
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1023 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREAS OF -SN WHICH AFFECTED THE NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED AS OF MID EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER/HOWARD COUNTIES IN SW
AR...WHERE SFC OBS INDICATE -SN CONTINUING TO FALL...RESULTING IN
REDUCED VSBYS. HAVE ALSO RECEIVED VARIOUS REPORTS OF FLURRIES
ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA...WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL
BENEATH THE RADAR BEAM. HOWEVER...MOST CONCERNED ABOUT PORTIONS OF
E TX TONIGHT...WHERE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE
AREAS OF -FZRA/IP DEVELOPING BETWEEN ACT AND PSN/ATHENS...SHIFTING
NE. THIS IS ALONG A BUILDING 850MB THETA-E RIDGE NICELY DEPICTED
BY THE 00Z WRF...WHICH EXPANDS NE INTO NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT WARMER AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND N OVERNIGHT...WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A -FZRA/IP MIX AS FAR N AS I-30 IN
NE TX THROUGH 12Z...WITH -SN STILL POSSIBLY FARTHER N ACROSS SE
OK/SW AR. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE EXTENT OF THE DRIER AIR
FARTHER E...WHICH HAS REALLY DONE A NUMBER ON THE -SHSN THAT
DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY AND LIMITED GROUND ACCUMULATIONS. STILL
THOUGH...AT LEAST MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND SEVIER COUNTY AR HAVE
REPORTED SLUSHY ROADS...WITH THIS ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL SFC TEMPS ARE
ABLE TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING.

FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE SMITH/WOOD/UPSHUR AND THE 4 SMALL I-30 COUNTIES FOR
-FZRA/IP...AND EXPANDED THE COMPLETE ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. AREAS AROUND/E OF ACT HAVE REPORTED ICY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS A RESULT OF THE -FZRA...WITH UP TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
THE -FZRA EXPANDS NE. THE TRANSITION FOR -SN TO -FZRA/IP SHOULD
BEGIN AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE NRN ZONES...WITH THE ICING THREAT
ENDING BY 18Z.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING
OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE AREA.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST MIN TEMPS HERE PER THE
CURRENT OBS.

ZONE UPDATE/ADVISORY ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  31  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  30  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  20  30  10  50  50
TYR  29  45  42  59  48 /  40  40  30  50  50
GGG  30  48  43  61  49 /  30  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136.

&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLIX 280321
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
921 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED MARINE HEADLINES TO BETTER FIT WIND FORECAST DESCRIBED IN
GRIDS. THIS WILL ADD INNER OPEN WATERS EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ADVISORY...AND WILL CARRY EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS REMAINING MARINE ZONES.

WILL ALSO MASSAGE HOURLY TEMP/DEW POINT GRIDS TO FIT EXISTING
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 280301
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BASICALLY TO PUT THEM IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THESE
CHANGES DO NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. JUST SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...COLD
WITH NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ON-GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  37  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  41  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  32  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 280301
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BASICALLY TO PUT THEM IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THESE
CHANGES DO NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. JUST SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...COLD
WITH NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ON-GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  37  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  41  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  32  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 280301
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BASICALLY TO PUT THEM IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THESE
CHANGES DO NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. JUST SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...COLD
WITH NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ON-GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  37  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  41  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  32  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 280301
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS...BASICALLY TO PUT THEM IN
LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THESE
CHANGES DO NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST THINKING. JUST SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...COLD
WITH NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS. OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND NO CHANGES TO THE
ON-GOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  37  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  41  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  32  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 280123
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
723 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED A FEW MILES FROM LAST NIGHTS TERMINATION
POINT...ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA
CAMPUS IN MOBILE. FLIGHT REACHED A HEIGHT OF 110.5K FEET OR CLOSE
TO 21 MILES IN ALTITUDE AFTER 105 MINUTES OF FLIGHT.

SOUNDING REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF
0.49 INCHES. THERE WAS ABOUT A 4C INVERSION JUST BELOW 900
MB...AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 780 AND 680 MB. FREEZING
LEVEL WAS AT 11K FEET...AND -20C WAS AT 21.6 FEET.

WINDS WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET...BECAME
WESTERLY AROUND 7000 FEET AND REMAINED GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH
100 MB. MAX WIND OF 120 KNOTS AT 36.8K FEET.  35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 272357
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
557 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUD DECKS AREAWIDE...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH OF I-30
ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. SOME LGT SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS...AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO NEAR THE KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG TERMINALS BTWN 28/03-06Z. THIS AREA OF LOWER
CIGS...AND POSSIBLE LGT WINTER PRECIP...WILL SHIFT LITTLE THRU
AROUND 28/12Z...HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF A WARM TONGUE
ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN 850 AND 925 MB...AND A LOWERING OF THE
CLOUD TOPS...MAY RESULT IN A CHANGOVER TO A LGT FRZG
DRIZZLE. MOISTURE NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FRZG RAIN AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TOO COLD TO SUPPORT REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY...HOWEVER...EXPOSED SFCS MAY STILL ICE OVER IN FRZG DRIZZLE.
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AFTER 28/15Z...WITH PRECIP EITHER ENDING
DUE TO LIFTING OF MOISTURE AND/OR BECMG LGT RAIN AS SFC TEMPS RISE
TO ABOVE FRZG. MEANWHILE...NE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS BECMG 5 TO 10 KTS
AFTER 28/03Z...AND BECMG MORE EASTERLY BY MORNING./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 272315
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 272315
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 272315
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 272315
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
VFR EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS
8-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING A BIT AFTER 14Z SAT.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14






000
FXUS64 KSHV 272140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THE COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNTS AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR
EARLY TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT...THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO WARM BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
A CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN. SOME SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE
TRANSITION...BUT EXPECT MOSTLY FZRN. THEN WITH CONTINUED WARMING
SOUTHERN AREAS...SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER INTO NORTHERN WOOD
COUNTY TEXAS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ON THE GOOD
SIDE...AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF A TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES...
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
GOING AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH 06Z. LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL
ADVISORY...WITH AROUND ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AFTER
00Z. OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
LESS THAN AN INCH SNOW AND HOPEFULLY ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY...WITH PLENTY PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH GULF MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND STALL. THIS
SHOULD BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SOME HEAVIER PCPN AND SCATTERED
TSTMS. A STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING MORE TSTMS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THIS
REGION WEDNESDAY...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN ALL AREAS
BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  32  49  44  61  50 /  10  20  10  50  50
MLU  28  51  44  61  50 /  10  10  10  50  50
DEQ  25  40  36  51  38 /  50  40  30  50  50
TXK  27  42  38  53  41 /  20  50  30  50  50
ELD  27  46  39  57  44 /  10  30  10  50  50
TYR  30  45  42  59  48 /  20  40  30  50  50
GGG  32  48  43  61  49 /  20  30  20  50  50
LFK  34  55  49  67  59 /  10  10  20  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

14





000
FXUS64 KLCH 272055
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 272055
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25




000
FXUS64 KLCH 272055
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
255 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDWEST RIDGING SSWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE DRY LOW-LEVEL
NERLY FLOW IS HELPING KEEP CLOUD COVER AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS HELPING SPREAD MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. LOCAL 88DS REMAIN QUIET ATTM.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS ITS GRIP ON THE RIDGING WHILE SLIDING EWD. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH MINS TONIGHT DROPPING TO THE
FREEZING MARK OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NRN ZONES. WITH THE HIGH TAKING
UP A MORE EWD POSITION TOMORROW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE ERLY
WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE WRN GULF
REGION. IN TURN A WEAK SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A LOW OVER THE WRN GULF OFF THE SRN TX COAST...AND A
DEVELOPING SFC TROF/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST INTO SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES PEAK SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROF MOVES NWD ACROSS
THE AREA IN UNISON WITH THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IN ADDITION
TO RISING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A WARMING
TREND AS WELL WITH THE ONSET OF THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL HELP LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIKE SOME THUNDER AS
WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT CROSSING THE WRN
CONUS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...
THEN SWD THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN
PLACE PRIOR TO FROPA...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OVERRUNNING-TYPE
RAINS LOOK PROBABLE BEHIND IT AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING IN.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END PERIODS OF THIS
FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND A NWRLY FLOW ALOFT BUILD OVER THE
REGION. POSSIBLE FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR NEXT FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE
NWRN GULF. ONSHORE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE SRN TX/WRN GULF LOW DEEPENS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWING WINDS AROUND TO A NRLY DIRECTION BY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  35  61  53  70  61 /  10  10  30  50  30
KBPT  38  60  55  71  62 /  10  10  30  50  30
KAEX  31  58  47  69  58 /  10  10  20  50  50
KLFT  36  61  54  71  62 /  10  10  20  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

25





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06





000
FXUS64 KSHV 272052
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

MOST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES HAVE BEEN PREVAILING WITH VFR
EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30. THIS AREA WILL HAVE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES. ALSO OVER THE DELTA REGION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
WHERE COLD AIR POOLING AND RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING
CEILINGS TO LOWER ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ALONG AND
INTERSTATE 20 AND INTERSTATE 30 DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR
RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THESE SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND RAIN WILL
EXPAND EAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
DURING THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY...WITH SNOW CHANGING OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

06






000
FXUS64 KLIX 272050
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 272050
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 272050
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 272050
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
250 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO
REACH THE LOWER 50S AND A FEW LOCATIONS HAVEN/T EVEN DONE THAT AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS IN THE SURGE OF COLD AIR. SIMILAR TREND
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB 40 DEGREE LOWS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS COULD
BE EVEN COLDER THAN THAT BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
CLOUDS AT AROUND 10K FEET. THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. FOR CLIMATOLOGY REFERENCE...THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT TOMORROW EXCEPT FOR TEMPS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER MOISTURE ON THE RISE AS WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE CARRIBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING NORTH
INTO GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPS TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S SUNDAY PER GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCE IS SLIGHTLY MORE UNCERTAIN ON
SUNDAY AS GFS HAS BACKED OFF BY 20 TO 30 PERCENT. DID LOWER POPS
SOME BUT NOT TO THAT DEGREE AS ECMWF STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY BUT
STALLING TO THE NORTH DUE TO LOSS OF ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH.
RAIN CHANCES DO REMAIN ELEVATE WITH NORTHERN ZONES SEEING HIGHER
POPS THAN COASTAL AREAS. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THAT OR TEMPS. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WILL THEN BE IN A LULL FOR RAIN TUESDAY...
THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT COMES
ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS BE MUCH
BROADER AND WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. COULD SEE
A GOOD 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. LATEST MODEL
SOUNDING INDICATE THAT SUB FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR COULD PUSH IN OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIGHT BEFORE THE RAIN FINISHES. IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET COULD
OCCUR. TOO MANY IF`S AT THIS TIME TO BE OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THAT
OUTCOME AT THIS TIME. JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH.

MEFFER
&&

AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DIDN/T REALLY
RELAX...SO HAD TO EXTEND THE SCA TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
MORNING/S ISSUANCE. NOW...WITH NOCTURNAL WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS...DOESN/T MAKE SENSE TO CANCEL THE SCA FOR A
SHORT PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS PICK BACK UP TO ABOVE
20 KNOTS. KIND OF IN THE SAME BOAT TOMORROW AS WINDS MAY SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TO JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND THEN COME BACK UP
IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...SLIDES EAST. FORECASTED MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK. STRONG COLD
FRONT TO BRING THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS LATER ON WEDNESDAY.

MEFFER
&&

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  32  61  47  66 /  10  10  10  40
BTR  34  61  50  70 /  10  10  20  40
ASD  36  60  50  67 /  10  10  20  40
MSY  41  58  54  70 /  10  10  20  50
GPT  38  59  51  65 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  36  61  47  66 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
     FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT
     FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLCH 271750
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
27/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATOCU CONTINUES TO BREAK UP PER LATEST STLT IMAGES. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH JUST FEW/SCT CLOUDS AROUND
2000-2500 FT AND BREEZY NELY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5-8 KT THIS EVENING...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASING FM THE WEST.
LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT WILL FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP. 19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  48  34  57  52 /  10  10  20  40
KBPT  51  36  57  55 /  10  10  20  40
KAEX  43  30  55  47 /  10  10  10  40
KLFT  50  35  59  54 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLIX 271739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 271739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 271739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 271739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 271739
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1139 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 016-022 SHOULD DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
THE START OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SHOULD SUBSIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEWPOINTS TO PRODUCE
FOG OR MIST...SO VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

22/TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 271701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271701
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1101 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MORNING STRATOCU GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...ONLY TO BE
REPLACED BY INCOMING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SHORT-RANGE MODELS PROG ALL THE
LIFT TO STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO NO POP MENTION IS FINE
FOR NOW. JUST MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO REMAINING GRIDS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
     TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271646
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...EVEN WITH THE SNOW
APPROACHING THE AREA. WILL UP THE POPS A LITTLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA
TO GO ALONG THE CERTAINTY AN ADVISORY INDICATES. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  30  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 271310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 271310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 271310
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
710 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING IS DRY AND STABLE. PW IS LOW AT .36
INCHES. A 5 F TEMPERATURE INVERSION EXISTS FROM THE SFC TO 060
FT. WINDS IN THAT LAYER ARE NORTHEASTERLY THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY
ABOVE. THE JET MAX IS 130 KTS AT 225 MB.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 271211
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
611 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WILL BE STARTING
THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME INTERMITTENT COLD AIR STRATOCU AT AROUND
2K FT ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL ALTOCU AT AROUND 12K FT
WILL BE INCOMING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 271202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  49  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
MLU  28  51  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
DEQ  24  40  36  51  40 /  30  20  40  60  60
TXK  25  42  38  53  43 /  20  20  40  60  60
ELD  25  46  39  57  46 /  10  10  40  60  60
TYR  29  45  43  59  50 /  20  20  40  60  60
GGG  29  48  43  61  51 /  20  20  40  60  60
LFK  31  55  49  67  61 /  10  10  40  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09






000
FXUS64 KSHV 271202
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INITIALLY AT MOST TAF
SITES BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL PERSISTING ACROSS E TX WHILE
ANOTHER BAND OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING SWD ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
ARE AFFECTING KMLU. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A MID LVL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME CLOUDS
AROUND 3 KFT ARE EXPECTED BUT FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE VFR AT MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THIS EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...CIGS
SHOULD BECOME MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF
IT ENDING BY 28/06Z. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE SNOW SHOULD BE
NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE TX.
THEREFORE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED SNOW IN THE TAFS. TAF SITES THAT
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED ARE KTXK AND KTYR. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  49  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
MLU  28  51  44  61  52 /  10  10  40  60  60
DEQ  24  40  36  51  40 /  30  20  40  60  60
TXK  25  42  38  53  43 /  20  20  40  60  60
ELD  25  46  39  57  46 /  10  10  40  60  60
TYR  29  45  43  59  50 /  20  20  40  60  60
GGG  29  48  43  61  51 /  20  20  40  60  60
LFK  31  55  49  67  61 /  10  10  40  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09





000
FXUS64 KLCH 271039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER







000
FXUS64 KLCH 271039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLCH 271039
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
439 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS
MORNING... AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN BITTERLY COLD OVER
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS. SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS THE WARM SPOT AT
70 DEGREES. AS FOR US...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IS
INDICATING A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AND THIS
HAS HELP TO KEEP US A BIT WARMER THAN WE WOULD HAVE BEEN
OTHERWISE. BUT THIS WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO WARMUP
THAT MUCH TODAY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS.

THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH IS WE ARE FINALLY GOING TO START A WARMING
TREND ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY
WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS
MONTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE
LAST TIME WE SAW MID 70S WAS ON THE FIRST OF FEBRUARY.

TWO EVENTS WILL HELP TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING DOWN
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL AGAIN PULL
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND ABOVE THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING. AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES THIS IS EXPECTED TO WASHOUT
THE FRONT WITH THE REGION WARMING. THE CHANCE FOR RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK AND WILL END ON THURSDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE
ARE STARTING THE CHANGE FROM WINTER TO SPRING BUT MORE COLD FRONTS
ARE STILL ON TAP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  50  35  58  53  68 /   0  10  20  40  60
KBPT  51  36  57  55  69 /   0  10  20  40  60
KAEX  43  30  55  47  66 /   0  10  10  40  60
KLFT  50  35  59  54  69 /   0  10  10  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$

K. KUYPER






000
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR
13/MH





000
FXUS64 KLIX 270957
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE TROUGH FLOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WAS ALREADY GENERATING WINTER
WEATHER IN WEST TEXAS. THAT PARTICULAR FEATURE SHOULD SHEAR OUT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. SURFACE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST AND MODERATES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
LOCAL WINDS VEERING TO EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNDAY TO BEGIN BAROCLINIC RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
LESS POTENT CONTINENTAL COLD AIR MASS MOVES SOUTHWARD SUNDAY TO
PLACE A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY BECOMES STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY UNDERGOES
FRONTOLYSIS AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE START OF A SERIES OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER STATES TO BRING A THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT BUT STRONG JET DYNAMICS MAY POSE A HAIL
THREAT IN THE GULF STATES WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS IN
THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AND BREAK UP REVEALING THE SUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14 TO 15Z THIS MORNING. 13/MH

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND HAS LED TO SOME ELEVATED WINDS TODAY. THE
HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLDOWN WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THROUGH NOON TODAY. WINDS WILL RELAX SOME AND THEN ELEVATE AGAIN
TONIGHT. HAVE NOT ISSUED THE NEXT SMALL CRAFT WARNING WILL ALLOW DAY
SHIFT TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN ORDER NOT TO CAUSE CONFUSION. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 13/MH

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  49  32  61  47 /   0  10  10  20
BTR  52  34  61  50 /   0  10  10  30
ASD  52  36  60  50 /   0  10  10  20
MSY  50  41  58  54 /   0  10  10  20
GPT  51  38  59  50 /   0  10  10  20
PQL  51  36  61  46 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

24/RR
13/MH






000
FXUS64 KSHV 270858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  20  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

05





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270858
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OF AIRMASS ALONG WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LINGERING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN.

UPPER-TROUGH TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR UPPER-FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TO
BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. UPPER-TROUGH TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE CONUS
BRINGING BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. /05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  29  49  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
MLU  38  28  51  44  61 /  10  10  10  40  60
DEQ  31  24  40  36  51 /  50  30  20  40  60
TXK  32  25  42  38  53 /  20  20  20  40  60
ELD  34  25  46  39  57 /  10  10  10  40  60
TYR  36  29  45  43  59 /  20  20  20  40  60
GGG  37  29  48  43  61 /  20  20  20  40  60
LFK  46  31  55  49  67 /  10  10  10  40  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.

LA...NONE.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KLIX 270546
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A SWATH OF COLD AIR STRCU ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CAUSE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL AFTER 12Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH
12Z AND FINALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 14Z. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 270546
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A SWATH OF COLD AIR STRCU ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CAUSE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL AFTER 12Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH
12Z AND FINALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 14Z. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 270546
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A SWATH OF COLD AIR STRCU ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CAUSE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL AFTER 12Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH
12Z AND FINALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 14Z. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 270546
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1146 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...06Z TAF ISSUANCE...
A SWATH OF COLD AIR STRCU ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TO
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND CAUSE
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL AFTER 12Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT KNEW AND KMSY THROUGH
12Z AND FINALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 14Z. 18

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLCH 270529
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATO-CU BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT MVFR CONDITIONS. GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TARGET THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER THE TEMP AND WIND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THE SCA EXPANDED IN THE AM.
ALSO CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ACADIANA AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO SKY
COVER WAS INC.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1041HPA CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING A LIGHT
FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO A HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED. A ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MAINTAINING A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...SOME JET CIRRUS AND MODERATE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TNITE WHERE I
SHADED TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
DIGGING WESTERN UPPER TROF COMBINES WITH THE DEPARTING POLAR HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AS
WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY THURSDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS
FASTER ON THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AND IS THEREFORE MUCH WARMER,
BRINGING THE FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TIGHT GRADIENT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  34  50  34  59  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KBPT  36  50  35  58  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KAEX  31  41  29  55  48 /   0   0  10  10  40
KLFT  33  49  35  60  50 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KSHV 270525
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
AS MVFR STRATOCU POST FRONTAL CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR FROM
THE NORTH...MID LVL DECKS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LVLS MARGINAL FOR INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NE AROUND 10 KTS BTWN
27/15-18Z...WITH MID LVL DECKS THICKENING AND LOWERING. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...ALTHOUGH A VERY
LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE OUT OF LOW VFR DECKS AT KTXK...KTYR...AND
POSSIBLY KGGG IN AFTN. STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY OTHER WINTER PRECIP TYPE. NE WINDS BECMG 5 KTS AFTER 28/00Z
WITH MID LVL DECKS POSSIBLY DECREASING TO SCT VRBL BKN
OVERNIGHT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KSHV 270400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATOCU FIELD CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD
PROGRESS SWD ACROSS THE SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP E TX AS WELL
AS NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE 18 AND 00Z WRF SUGGEST THAT WINDS AT
THIS LEVEL WILL VEER MORE NERLY AFTER 06Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT
LEAST THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA MAY ACTUALLY FILL BACK IN WITH
THE STRATOCU NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER S OF MEM. ELSEWHERE...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD THAT CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE ESE INTO SW AR/MUCH OF E TX/EXTREME NW LA...WHICH THE
PROGS HINT AT ADVANCING A LITTLE FARTHER E ACROSS THE NCNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT. THIS CERTAINLY THROWS A FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH THE
FORECAST...AS THE PROGS DEPICT INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH OUR
NEXT REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN TEMP TRENDS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS...BELIEVE THAT THE BEST COLD ADVECTION WILL BE
LIMITED TO EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY
SLOWING THE EXTENT OF ADVECTION FARTHER S.

GIVEN THIS...AND THE FACT THAT 03Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN MOS ATTM...HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPS A
TAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. UPPER TEENS IN SE
OK/ADJACENT SW AR WILL BE TOUGH TO GET TO GIVEN THE AC SHIELD
DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. HAVE ALSO BEEFED
UP SKY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING N OF I-30
FRIDAY...AND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N
LA...ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER THICKENS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
ADVANCE E ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH ACROSS AREA...WITH LOW LVL INVERSION TO
CREATE MOSTLY MVFR DECKS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED AT KTXK
AND KELD...WITH LOW CIGS MORE INTERMITTENT AT THESE SITES. NORTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KTS...BECMG NE AROUND 10 KTS AS
MID LVL DECKS INCREASE ABOVE LOW CIGS GRADUALLY BECMG LOW MVFR
BY AROUND 27/15Z. THESE WIND AND CLOUD CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY
PREVAIL ACROSS AREA THRU 28/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  28  39  29  47  43 /  10  10  10  20  40
MLU  27  39  27  51  45 /   0  10  10  10  40
DEQ  22  31  23  39  38 /   0  20  20  30  40
TXK  24  34  26  41  39 /  10  10  10  20  40
ELD  24  35  25  44  41 /   0  10  10  10  40
TYR  28  37  31  45  41 /  10  20  20  30  40
GGG  28  38  30  47  43 /  10  20  20  20  40
LFK  31  46  33  52  48 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





000
FXUS64 KLCH 270254
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TARGET THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER THE TEMP AND WIND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THE SCA EXPANDED IN THE AM.
ALSO CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ACADIANA AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO SKY
COVER WAS INC.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN FORM...WITH
BASES AT MVFR LEVELS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET.
WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1041HPA CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING A LIGHT
FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO A HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED. A ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MAINTAINING A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...SOME JET CIRRUS AND MODERATE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TNITE WHERE I
SHADED TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
DIGGING WESTERN UPPER TROF COMBINES WITH THE DEPARTING POLAR HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AS
WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY THURSDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS
FASTER ON THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AND IS THEREFORE MUCH WARMER,
BRINGING THE FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TIGHT GRADIENT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  34  50  34  59  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KBPT  36  50  35  58  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KAEX  31  41  29  55  48 /   0   0  10  10  40
KLFT  33  49  35  60  50 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLCH 270254
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
854 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TARGET THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER THE TEMP AND WIND GRIDS WERE MODIFIED WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THE SCA EXPANDED IN THE AM.
ALSO CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ACADIANA AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SO SKY
COVER WAS INC.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS WILL AGAIN FORM...WITH
BASES AT MVFR LEVELS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET.
WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
1041HPA CANADIAN HIGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING A LIGHT
FREEZE TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190 TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO A HARD FREEZE WILL BE AVOIDED. A ZONAL FLOW WILL
DRIVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MAINTAINING A
TIGHT GRADIENT AND A COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...SOME JET CIRRUS AND MODERATE WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TNITE WHERE I
SHADED TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS A
DIGGING WESTERN UPPER TROF COMBINES WITH THE DEPARTING POLAR HIGH
OFF THE EAST COAST TO PROVIDE A GOOD SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AS
WELL AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

BY THURSDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS
FASTER ON THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THE EUROPEAN
SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE FAVORED AND IS THEREFORE MUCH WARMER,
BRINGING THE FRONT THRU ON THURSDAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE REINFORCING SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR.
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND REMAIN MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TIGHT GRADIENT.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  34  50  34  59  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KBPT  36  50  35  58  52 /   0   0  10  20  40
KAEX  31  41  29  55  48 /   0   0  10  10  40
KLFT  33  49  35  60  50 /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLIX 270058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AT NEARLY 106K
FEET...OR ABOUT 20 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.34
INCHES. JUST A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION NEAR FL250. THE CIRRUS
DECK AT SUNSET PROVIDED SOME RATHER PICTURESQUE VISTAS. WINDS WERE
OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO FL060...THEN BECAME WESTERLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH 100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 133
KNOTS AT 38.3K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 9.1K FEET AND -20C
LEVEL WAS AT 20.6K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...STARTING TONIGHT AS A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...AND BASED ON LAST NIGHTS TRENDS...SOME OF THE STATIONS
EXPERIENCING THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. AM STILL INDICATING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FINALLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY...AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARDS
BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ERODE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH NEAR OUR COAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW SUNDAY TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO STRONG
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
22/TD

AVIATION...

VRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE SPEEDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR
AND BRETON SOUNDS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR LIGHTER WINDS
AND GOOD CONDITIONS FOR BOATING AND FISHING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  49  31  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  32  52  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  32  53  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  37  51  41  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  33  54  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  31  54  35  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 270058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AT NEARLY 106K
FEET...OR ABOUT 20 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.34
INCHES. JUST A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION NEAR FL250. THE CIRRUS
DECK AT SUNSET PROVIDED SOME RATHER PICTURESQUE VISTAS. WINDS WERE
OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO FL060...THEN BECAME WESTERLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH 100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 133
KNOTS AT 38.3K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 9.1K FEET AND -20C
LEVEL WAS AT 20.6K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...STARTING TONIGHT AS A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...AND BASED ON LAST NIGHTS TRENDS...SOME OF THE STATIONS
EXPERIENCING THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. AM STILL INDICATING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FINALLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY...AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARDS
BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ERODE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH NEAR OUR COAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW SUNDAY TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO STRONG
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
22/TD

AVIATION...

VRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE SPEEDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR
AND BRETON SOUNDS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR LIGHTER WINDS
AND GOOD CONDITIONS FOR BOATING AND FISHING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  49  31  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  32  52  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  32  53  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  37  51  41  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  33  54  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  31  54  35  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 270058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AT NEARLY 106K
FEET...OR ABOUT 20 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.34
INCHES. JUST A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION NEAR FL250. THE CIRRUS
DECK AT SUNSET PROVIDED SOME RATHER PICTURESQUE VISTAS. WINDS WERE
OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO FL060...THEN BECAME WESTERLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH 100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 133
KNOTS AT 38.3K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 9.1K FEET AND -20C
LEVEL WAS AT 20.6K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...STARTING TONIGHT AS A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...AND BASED ON LAST NIGHTS TRENDS...SOME OF THE STATIONS
EXPERIENCING THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. AM STILL INDICATING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FINALLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY...AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARDS
BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ERODE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH NEAR OUR COAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW SUNDAY TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO STRONG
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
22/TD

AVIATION...

VRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE SPEEDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR
AND BRETON SOUNDS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR LIGHTER WINDS
AND GOOD CONDITIONS FOR BOATING AND FISHING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  49  31  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  32  52  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  32  53  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  37  51  41  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  33  54  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  31  54  35  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLIX 270058
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
658 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED OVER MOBILE ALABAMA AT NEARLY 106K
FEET...OR ABOUT 20 MILES IN ALTITUDE.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.34
INCHES. JUST A SMALL AREA OF SATURATION NEAR FL250. THE CIRRUS
DECK AT SUNSET PROVIDED SOME RATHER PICTURESQUE VISTAS. WINDS WERE
OUT OF THE NORTH FROM THE SURFACE TO FL060...THEN BECAME WESTERLY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FLIGHT THROUGH 100 MB. PEAK WIND WAS 133
KNOTS AT 38.3K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL WAS AT 9.1K FEET AND -20C
LEVEL WAS AT 20.6K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THE LARGE POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
REINFORCE THE COLD AIR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PERIODS
OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...STARTING TONIGHT AS A DECK OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER THE SNOWPACK TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE
FORECASTING...AND BASED ON LAST NIGHTS TRENDS...SOME OF THE STATIONS
EXPERIENCING THE LONGER PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. AM STILL INDICATING A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR THE COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL FINALLY MODIFY ON SATURDAY...AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE HIGHS TO WARM TO NEAR
60 DEGREES. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT CREEPS NORTH.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DIGGING TROUGH DIVES SOUTH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST TOWARDS
BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
ERODE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH NEAR OUR COAST. MINOR
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
MODELS SHOW SUNDAY TO BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCE DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE NO STRONG
SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
22/TD

AVIATION...

VRR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP AREAWIDE WITH MVFR/IFR BACK IN PLACE. MORE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW.

MEFFER

MARINE...

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NEAR THOSE SPEEDS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG WITH CHANDELEUR
AND BRETON SOUNDS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THESE ADVISORIES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA...AS ALL MODELS INDICATED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST. FOR THOSE WAITING FOR LIGHTER WINDS
AND GOOD CONDITIONS FOR BOATING AND FISHING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD FINALLY BE THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THESE LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG/SEA FOG AS THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS. 22/TD

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
             SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  30  49  31  59 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  32  52  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  32  53  34  60 /   0   0  10  10
MSY  37  51  41  59 /   0   0  10  10
GPT  33  54  36  60 /   0   0  10  10
PQL  31  54  35  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
     THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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