Home > Products > State Listing > Louisiana Data
Latest:
 AFDSHV |  AFDLCH |  AFDLIX |
  [top]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 271508
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  50  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  50  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  50  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  50  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  50  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  50  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  50  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271508
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  50  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  50  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  50  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  50  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  50  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  50  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  50  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271310
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
810 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS REGION...LEAVING
BEHIND SEVERAL CATEGORIES OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES.
THE CURRENT BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TX/LA
BORDER. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS AT KMLU/KELD...WILL DIMINISH TO
MVFR/IFR AS SHWRS/TSTMS MOVE IN OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE CONVECTION...AS
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT AFTER EXITING KELD/KMLU LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING
FOR MOST SITES NEAR 28/00Z AND LATER. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
E/NELY TODAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271233
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLCH 271200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FCSTS IRON THAT OUT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 271200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FCSTS IRON THAT OUT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 271200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FCSTS IRON THAT OUT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 271200
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
700 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN WAS TIMING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY ROLLING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET SUBSEQUENT FCSTS IRON THAT OUT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 271044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KLCH 270949
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
449 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SWEEPING EASTWARD
THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ALSO RECENTLY BEGUN TO SPROUT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QLCS WITHIN
REGION OF BROAD WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

QLCS IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...WITH TSTMS POSING A RISK OF
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES
GIVEN MODEL FCST PWATS OF 2+ INCHES. WITH THE ENTIRE FCST AREA
LOOKING TO BE INVOLVED IN AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND OF
TSTMS...EXPANDED THE INHERITED FFA ACCORDINGLY. PENDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...A SECOND ROUND
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OPTED
TO HOLD OF EXTENDING THE WATCH IN TIME AND ALLOW THE DAY CREW TO
FURTHER EVALUATE.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD...ACCELERATING TWD THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
TUE AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MSTR
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST...BUT ALL RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY WED AS MUCH DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO THE
REGION.

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU...WITH A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

13

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND SOME OF THE STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER TEXAS AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN
CHANCES...AND RESULT IN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  60  66  50 /  80  90  30  10
LCH  80  66  72  53 /  80  60  20  10
LFT  80  67  73  53 /  80  70  20  10
BPT  80  66  72  52 /  90  50  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 270848
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH A SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FOR THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND GULF STATES
REGION. SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATED VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MODELS FORECAST THAT
THIS MID/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST
TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY MODEST CAPE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR ARE INDICATED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HELICITY VALUES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
WILL EXIST. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY. 11

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN AFTER TUESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
LAST PART OF THE WEEK WILL FLATTEN AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY COOLER
CONDITIONS LOCALLY DURING THE MID AND LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD WILL
MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DEPART THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 200 TO 500 FEET REMAIN
OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND
14Z. SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS TO 1/4SM MAY OCCUR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE INVERSION RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AFTER 12Z. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z AS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CEILINGS OF 500 TO 1000
FEET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN OVERNIGHT. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THIS LINE AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO NW. WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST SLOWLY...NW WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  62  72  52 /  70  80  60  30
BTR  78  65  75  53 /  70  80  50  20
ASD  78  66  79  57 /  70  80  50  30
MSY  79  69  80  59 /  70  80  50  20
GPT  77  67  77  59 /  60  80  60  30
PQL  78  66  78  59 /  60  70  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270848
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
348 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH A SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FOR THE AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND GULF STATES
REGION. SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATED VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. MODELS FORECAST THAT
THIS MID/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY. A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST
TODAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAINLY MODEST CAPE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR ARE INDICATED IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HELICITY VALUES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO BE QUITE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE AREA AND AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
EXTREME COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
WILL EXIST. RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID DAY
TUESDAY. 11

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN AFTER TUESDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
LAST PART OF THE WEEK WILL FLATTEN AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. RELATIVELY COOLER
CONDITIONS LOCALLY DURING THE MID AND LATE WORK WEEK PERIOD WILL
MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DEPART THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 200 TO 500 FEET REMAIN
OVER MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THIS DECK SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND
14Z. SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS TO 1/4SM MAY OCCUR AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE INVERSION RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AFTER 12Z. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z AS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CEILINGS OF 500 TO 1000
FEET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN OVERNIGHT. 17

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THIS LINE AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT WINDS FROM AN EASTERLY AND
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO NW. WITH THE LOW MOVING EAST SLOWLY...NW WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW ON
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK. 17

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...ORANGE
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  76  62  72  52 /  70  80  60  30
BTR  78  65  75  53 /  70  80  50  20
ASD  78  66  79  57 /  70  80  50  30
MSY  79  69  80  59 /  70  80  50  20
GPT  77  67  77  59 /  60  80  60  30
PQL  78  66  78  59 /  60  70  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270715
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015


.AVIATION...OCCLUDED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL
AREA. WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBAND. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH BEGINNING MID-MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST HRRR
IMAGERY. EXPECTING LIFR WITH THE DISRUPTIVE TSTMS...GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 270435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015


.AVIATION...OCCLUDED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL
AREA. WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBAND. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH BEGINNING MID-MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST HRRR
IMAGERY. EXPECTING LIFR WITH THE DISRUPTIVE TSTMS...GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015


.AVIATION...OCCLUDED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL
AREA. WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBAND. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH BEGINNING MID-MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST HRRR
IMAGERY. EXPECTING LIFR WITH THE DISRUPTIVE TSTMS...GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270435
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015


.AVIATION...OCCLUDED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AEX TERMINAL
AREA. WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBAND. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH HAIL EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH BEGINNING MID-MONDAY MORNING PER LATEST HRRR
IMAGERY. EXPECTING LIFR WITH THE DISRUPTIVE TSTMS...GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 270311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 270311
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP TONIGHT. REGIONAL 88DS SHOW A
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER N-CNTL/NERN
TX IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT. MEANWHILE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER CNTL TX ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER DRYLINE CONVECTION OVER WRN TX. SHORT RANGE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS ALL THIS MESS CONGEALING INTO A SINGLE
CONVECTIVE FEATURE PUSHING SEWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT...LIKELY AFTER 09Z...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES INTO
AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THUS
POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE WRN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WORDING ADDED WEST OF THE SABINE.

ELSEWHERE TWEAKS WERE MINOR...MAINLY SKY COVER INCREASED QUITE A
BIT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT AS WELL AS BASED ON LATEST OBS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  73  80  65  71 /  30  80  60  20
LFT  72  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  74  81  65  72 /  50  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270310 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270310 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09



000
FXUS64 KLIX 270210
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
910 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI PLACING FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WHICH IS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED. 00Z SLIDELL
SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WITH SO MUCH INSTABLITY AND SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLITY OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISSUE WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING WAS LIGHT WINDS FIRST 5
MINUTES WITH BALLOON HOVERING OVERHEAD BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
REACHED AROUND 4KFT. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND SUPPORTIVE OF OBSERVED ACCAS AND
ALTOCUMULUS FIELD AT LAUNCH...AND DETECTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KMSY DURING
FLIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDING WITH DRY LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600MB THEN SATURATED AT 555MB OR 16.2KFT.
WINDS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WERE NEAR CALM AT THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF NE 2-5 KT TO JUST BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW TO NW
10-45KT TO 16KFT...THEN SW JET WINDS 60-126KT ABOVE...PEAK WIND
255/126KT AT 42.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.95 INCHES...LIFTED
INDEX -8 WITH A MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 2931 J/KG...NOT TOO SHABBY
GIVEN VERY LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO SURFACE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AT
THIS TIME.

RAN CHAP OUTPUT ON SOUNDING CONDITIONED ON ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADEQUATE TO PROVIDE A THETA-E AROUND 353K AT OR NEAR 850
MB. THIS YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF 181 WITH A 71% CHANCE OF SEVERE
TSTMS. GUST POTENTIAL 74KT/85 MPH..HAIL 2.35" /HEN EGG/ WITH A VIL
OF ONLY 58. TORNADO POTENTIAL OF EF-4 POSSIBLE. BE MINDFUL THAT
THIS IS A CONDITIONAL CASE...NOT ACTUAL...BUT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND SOUNDING TO SUPPORT SUCH IS USUALLY A
12 HOUR PRECURSOR OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NAM ROS MODEL
OUTPUT OF CHAP INDICATING RI 162-164 WITH EF2 POTENTIAL MONDAY.

FINALLY...BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES
ABOUT 87 MILES DOWNRANGE NEAR EASLEY ROAD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 28 IN
WESTERN ALABAMA. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  75  63  72 /  30  50  70  60
BTR  68  77  65  76 /  30  70  80  50
ASD  69  76  65  80 /  30  60  80  60
MSY  72  77  68  80 /  30  70  80  50
GPT  70  74  67  76 /  30  50  70  60
PQL  68  77  65  78 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 270210
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
910 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO 250 MB JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI PLACING FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WHICH IS
WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED. 00Z SLIDELL
SOUNDING SHOWED PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALSO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WITH SO MUCH INSTABLITY AND SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON
MONDAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBLITY OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEED
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISSUE WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING WAS LIGHT WINDS FIRST 5
MINUTES WITH BALLOON HOVERING OVERHEAD BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
REACHED AROUND 4KFT. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND SUPPORTIVE OF OBSERVED ACCAS AND
ALTOCUMULUS FIELD AT LAUNCH...AND DETECTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KMSY DURING
FLIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDING WITH DRY LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600MB THEN SATURATED AT 555MB OR 16.2KFT.
WINDS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WERE NEAR CALM AT THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF NE 2-5 KT TO JUST BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW TO NW
10-45KT TO 16KFT...THEN SW JET WINDS 60-126KT ABOVE...PEAK WIND
255/126KT AT 42.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.95 INCHES...LIFTED
INDEX -8 WITH A MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 2931 J/KG...NOT TOO SHABBY
GIVEN VERY LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO SURFACE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AT
THIS TIME.

RAN CHAP OUTPUT ON SOUNDING CONDITIONED ON ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADEQUATE TO PROVIDE A THETA-E AROUND 353K AT OR NEAR 850
MB. THIS YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF 181 WITH A 71% CHANCE OF SEVERE
TSTMS. GUST POTENTIAL 74KT/85 MPH..HAIL 2.35" /HEN EGG/ WITH A VIL
OF ONLY 58. TORNADO POTENTIAL OF EF-4 POSSIBLE. BE MINDFUL THAT
THIS IS A CONDITIONAL CASE...NOT ACTUAL...BUT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND SOUNDING TO SUPPORT SUCH IS USUALLY A
12 HOUR PRECURSOR OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NAM ROS MODEL
OUTPUT OF CHAP INDICATING RI 162-164 WITH EF2 POTENTIAL MONDAY.

FINALLY...BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES
ABOUT 87 MILES DOWNRANGE NEAR EASLEY ROAD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 28 IN
WESTERN ALABAMA. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  75  63  72 /  30  50  70  60
BTR  68  77  65  76 /  30  70  80  50
ASD  69  76  65  80 /  30  60  80  60
MSY  72  77  68  80 /  30  70  80  50
GPT  70  74  67  76 /  30  50  70  60
PQL  68  77  65  78 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270146
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
846 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISSUE WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING WAS LIGHT WINDS FIRST 5
MINUTES WITH BALLOON HOVERING OVERHEAD BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
REACHED AROUND 4KFT. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND SUPPORTIVE OF OBSERVED ACCAS AND
ALTOCUMULUS FIELD AT LAUNCH...AND DETECTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KMSY DURING
FLIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDING WITH DRY LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600MB THEN SATURATED AT 555MB OR 16.2KFT.
WINDS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WERE NEAR CALM AT THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF NE 2-5 KT TO JUST BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW TO NW
10-45KT TO 16KFT...THEN SW JET WINDS 60-126KT ABOVE...PEAK WIND
255/126KT AT 42.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.95 INCHES...LIFTED
INDEX -8 WITH A MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 2931 J/KG...NOT TOO SHABBY
GIVEN VERY LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO SURFACE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AT
THIS TIME.

RAN CHAP OUTPUT ON SOUNDING CONDITIONED ON ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADEQUATE TO PROVIDE A THETA-E AROUND 353K AT OR NEAR 850
MB. THIS YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF 181 WITH A 71% CHANCE OF SEVERE
TSTMS. GUST POTENTIAL 74KT/85 MPH..HAIL 2.35" /HEN EGG/ WITH A VIL
OF ONLY 58. TORNADO POTENTIAL OF EF-4 POSSIBLE. BE MINDFUL THAT
THIS IS A CONDITIONAL CASE...NOT ACTUAL...BUT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND SOUNDING TO SUPPORT SUCH IS USUALLY A
12 HOUR PRECURSOR OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NAM ROS MODEL
OUTPUT OF CHAP INDICATING RI 162-164 WITH EF2 POTENTIAL MONDAY.

FINALLY...BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES
ABOUT 87 MILES DOWNRANGE NEAR EASLEY ROAD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 28 IN
WESTERN ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  75  63  72 /  20  50  70  60
BTR  68  77  65  76 /  20  70  80  50
ASD  69  76  65  80 /  20  60  80  60
MSY  72  77  68  80 /  20  70  80  50
GPT  70  74  67  76 /  30  50  70  60
PQL  68  77  65  78 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 270146
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
846 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISSUE WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING WAS LIGHT WINDS FIRST 5
MINUTES WITH BALLOON HOVERING OVERHEAD BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
REACHED AROUND 4KFT. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS AND SUPPORTIVE OF OBSERVED ACCAS AND
ALTOCUMULUS FIELD AT LAUNCH...AND DETECTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF KMSY DURING
FLIGHT. A RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDING WITH DRY LAYER ABOVE SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 600MB THEN SATURATED AT 555MB OR 16.2KFT.
WINDS...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WERE NEAR CALM AT THE
SURFACE...A LAYER OF NE 2-5 KT TO JUST BELOW 4KFT...THEN SW TO NW
10-45KT TO 16KFT...THEN SW JET WINDS 60-126KT ABOVE...PEAK WIND
255/126KT AT 42.7KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 0.95 INCHES...LIFTED
INDEX -8 WITH A MOST UNSTABLE CAPE 2931 J/KG...NOT TOO SHABBY
GIVEN VERY LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO SURFACE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES AT
THIS TIME.

RAN CHAP OUTPUT ON SOUNDING CONDITIONED ON ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADEQUATE TO PROVIDE A THETA-E AROUND 353K AT OR NEAR 850
MB. THIS YIELDS A RICKS INDEX OF 181 WITH A 71% CHANCE OF SEVERE
TSTMS. GUST POTENTIAL 74KT/85 MPH..HAIL 2.35" /HEN EGG/ WITH A VIL
OF ONLY 58. TORNADO POTENTIAL OF EF-4 POSSIBLE. BE MINDFUL THAT
THIS IS A CONDITIONAL CASE...NOT ACTUAL...BUT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PRESENCE OF ACCAS AND SOUNDING TO SUPPORT SUCH IS USUALLY A
12 HOUR PRECURSOR OF SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NAM ROS MODEL
OUTPUT OF CHAP INDICATING RI 162-164 WITH EF2 POTENTIAL MONDAY.

FINALLY...BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB AT AN ALTITUDE OF 21.5 MILES
ABOUT 87 MILES DOWNRANGE NEAR EASLEY ROAD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 28 IN
WESTERN ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  75  63  72 /  20  50  70  60
BTR  68  77  65  76 /  20  70  80  50
ASD  69  76  65  80 /  20  60  80  60
MSY  72  77  68  80 /  20  70  80  50
GPT  70  74  67  76 /  30  50  70  60
PQL  68  77  65  78 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 270041
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD AS
MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD CONVECTION
NEAR TXK HAS DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AREA WIDE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF
THE CONVECTION WITH IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION
SHOULD REACH E TX VERY NEAR 12Z...THEN CLOSER TO 15Z AT TXK/SHV
FOLLOWED BY ELD/MLU. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 262358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  66  74  59 /  10  40  70  70
LCH  85  71  80  65 /  10  20  80  60
LFT  87  70  79  67 /  10  20  70  60
BPT  85  72  81  65 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 262358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  66  74  59 /  10  40  70  70
LCH  85  71  80  65 /  10  20  80  60
LFT  87  70  79  67 /  10  20  70  60
BPT  85  72  81  65 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  66  74  59 /  10  40  70  70
LCH  85  71  80  65 /  10  20  80  60
LFT  87  70  79  67 /  10  20  70  60
BPT  85  72  81  65 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...A STORM SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A WARM OCCLUSION,
DRY LINE, AN EXTENSIVE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF AN ENCROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL WITH HIGH CAPES
WILL BE CAUSING DISRUPTIVE SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS FROM
MID- MORNING MONDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS BEGIN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO THE AEX AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR AND
THEN LIFR FOR THE BPT AND LCH TERMINALS.

POSSIBLE HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN BY MID-
MORNING MONDAY WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF WHILE A STRONG
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW HANGS BACK AROUND THE PANHANDLE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO IFR TO MVFR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHILE THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE COAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  89  66  74  59 /  10  40  70  70
LCH  85  71  80  65 /  10  20  80  60
LFT  87  70  79  67 /  10  20  70  60
BPT  85  72  81  65 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27



000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 262052
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON ANALYSIS INDICATES SHARP TROUGH OUT WEST IN THE
PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN RESPONSE
ACROSS TEXAS AS WELL. STRONG JET SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF HAS KEPT CLOUDS A LITTLE MORE THICK THAN
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES INLAND AND
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. THIS IN TURN HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM ACHIEVING PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS.

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE STABLE SURFACE
LAYER. SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD ALSO INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE STORM AS WELL. AT THE SAME TIME...ACTIVITY OVER TEXAS IS
FORECAST TO CONGEAL INTO A ROBUST CLUSTER OF STORMS AND MARCH
EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS GREAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THE COMPLEX. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATICS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN ON MONDAY...NOT REAL SURE HOW FAR
NORTH TO TAKE THE HEAVY RAIN WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES ON HOW IT
WILL EVOLVE. STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY. AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE AN FFA FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHERE WE ARE FORECASTING 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
6. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE
AREA...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED AS WE SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS AS WELL. THEN QUESTION
BECOMES WILL DRY SLOT ON TUESDAY SHUT THINGS DOWN EARLY OR WILL
THERE BE DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS
MIXED...BUT DEFINITELY THINK THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER.

AFTER TUESDAY NICE COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  66  74  59  65 /  40  70  70  40
LCH  71  80  65  71 /  20  80  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  73 /  20  70  60  40
BPT  72  81  65  72 /  30  80  50  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     LAZ030>033-041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     TXZ215-216-261-262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLIX 262019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

&&

.MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&



000
FXUS64 KLIX 262019
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED A LULL IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY. MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVING EASTARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COASTAL STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...AND ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIP WATER IN THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH
RANGE BY LATE MONDAY...SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING ISSUES
ARE RESOVED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL AREA SUGGEST A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION OF INSTBILITY AND SHEAR. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NEAR THE COAST MAY ENHANCE THE DIRECTION SHEAR
COMPONENET AND THUS THE SEVERE THREAT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE LOW...LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS GENERALLY
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION WED THROUGH THU
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING TO SEASONAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND. 21

&&

.MARINE...
REALTIVELY LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES..TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS..POTENTIALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE IN ADVANCE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO
20-30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT. 21

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND
INCREASES...ANOTHER INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT
TO SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE
TERMINALS BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE
INVERSION AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A
TEMPO GROUP IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY
CLEAR AFTER 12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TURNS MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING OCCURS.  AFTER 18Z...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS
CEILINGS FALL BACK INTO IFR RANGE AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. VCTS WORDING WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. 32

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261856
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261856
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261856
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261856
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261856
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48HRS OR SO BEFORE MUCH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FILLING IN COVERAGE WISE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX ATTM.
NONE OF THE SHORTTERM SOLUTIONS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY QUITE THIS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE ONSET
OF DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATERVAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH AS
OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WEST TO EAST FROM
THE TX/OK BORDER TO NEAR THE AR/LA BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO N LA...MORE SO THAN NE TX. THE WARM SECTOR
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TX BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT...STRONG OVERRUNNING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES COULD EVEN RESULT IN A FEW HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NORTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK...EXTREME
SW AR AND NW LA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT DISCRETE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING COULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE...THUS THE
THREAT OVERNIGHT.

KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST THIS EVENING WITH A SEVERE HIGHLIGHT
IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH HIGHER POPS WARRANTED LATE TONIGHT.
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1/5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THUS...OUR HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD STAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES FOR THIS EVENT MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE BEGIN
TO SEE DRY SLOTTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR
REGION. ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
DELEGATED TO THOSE SAME SOUTHERN ZONES AS MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
WILL BE OF AN OVERRUNNING NATURE.

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO WARM
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. OUR COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BEFORE WE BEGIN TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURE WISE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A DRYING TREND WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE LATE WEEK
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  54  60 /  40  70  70  60
MLU  61  66  56  63 /  30  50  70  70
DEQ  59  63  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
TXK  58  65  48  59 /  60  70  70  60
ELD  58  65  50  55 /  30  50  70  70
TYR  64  67  54  59 /  60  70  70  50
GGG  63  67  53  60 /  60  70  70  50
LFK  70  73  57  65 /  60  70  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261831
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE STRATUS BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY...TSTMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS
OUR REGION FROM THE W DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING...LIKELY
AFFECTING E TX TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
E THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT...SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO PREVAIL
THUNDER FOR N LA/S AR TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL
BECOME NELY/ELY AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  66  54 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  61  66  56 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  59  63  48 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  58  65  48 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  58  65  50 /  20  30  50  70
TYR  89  64  67  54 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  63  67  53 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  70  73  57 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KLIX 261729
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THAT WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS HAS
CLEARED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY
WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND INCREASES...ANOTHER
INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW
STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE TERMINALS
BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION
AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A TEMPO GROUP IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER
12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER TURNS
MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  78  60  70 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  68  79  65  74 /  20  60  70  60
ASD  69  79  67  76 /  20  50  70  70
MSY  72  79  69  78 /  20  60  70  60
GPT  70  78  67  74 /  20  50  70  70
PQL  68  79  66  75 /  20  50  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32



000
FXUS64 KLIX 261729
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THAT WERE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS HAS
CLEARED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO
MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT TO SEE A STRONGER EASTERLY
WIND AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. BEFORE THIS WIND INCREASES...ANOTHER
INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...AND EXPECT TO SEE A LOW
STRATUS DECK RANGING FROM 300 TO 800 FEET FORM OVER THE TERMINALS
BY 09Z. THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION
AT KMCB...KHUM...AND KHDC...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS BELOW ONE HALF MILE AND 200 FEET RESPECTIVELY BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z AND THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AS A TEMPO GROUP IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE THE INVERSION QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER
12Z...AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER TURNS
MORE TURBULENT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
14-15Z TOMORROW AS THIS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  78  60  70 /  20  50  60  70
BTR  68  79  65  74 /  20  60  70  60
ASD  69  79  67  76 /  20  50  70  70
MSY  72  79  69  78 /  20  60  70  60
GPT  70  78  67  74 /  20  50  70  70
PQL  68  79  66  75 /  20  50  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261643
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION OFFSHORE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS SHOULDN`T BE A CONCERN TO TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY 06Z...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE/LIFT AGAIN WITH VCSH AND INTERMITTENT
SHRA THRU 12Z. THEN THE MOISTURE/LIFT REALLY RAMPS UP AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH AN EXPECTED MCS, SQUALL LINE, OR GROUP OF SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION. PLACED HEAVILY WORDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR +TSRA/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS AND VRB25G40KTS POSSIBLE
FROM 14-18Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR CNTL LA PARISHES AS
OBS NR FT POLK NOW HAVE SHOWN VSBYS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
DURING THE PAST HOUR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 9 AM. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  75  59  67 /  20  60  70  40
LCH  71  79  64  74 /  20  70  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  74 /  20  70  70  40
BPT  73  80  64  74 /  20  70  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261643
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS BPT/LCH/LFT/ARA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION OFFSHORE THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS SHOULDN`T BE A CONCERN TO TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BY 06Z...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO INCREASE MOISTURE/LIFT AGAIN WITH VCSH AND INTERMITTENT
SHRA THRU 12Z. THEN THE MOISTURE/LIFT REALLY RAMPS UP AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH AN EXPECTED MCS, SQUALL LINE, OR GROUP OF SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION. PLACED HEAVILY WORDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR +TSRA/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS AND VRB25G40KTS POSSIBLE
FROM 14-18Z.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR CNTL LA PARISHES AS
OBS NR FT POLK NOW HAVE SHOWN VSBYS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
DURING THE PAST HOUR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 9 AM. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  75  59  67 /  20  60  70  40
LCH  71  79  64  74 /  20  70  60  20
LFT  70  79  67  74 /  20  70  70  40
BPT  73  80  64  74 /  20  70  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...08



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261452
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261452
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261452
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
952 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FINALLY
GETTING RID OF THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 14Z
ANALYSIS SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PULLED UP NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER TO NEAR THE OK/TX BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TX IN AN AREA OF PVA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO CUT ITSELF OFF
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHORT TERM PROGS ALL HANDLING THIS
MOISTURE A BIT DIFFERENTLY TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE TODAY. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PERHAPS OUR WESTERN ZONES SEEING SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TODAY COMPARED TO OUR NE ZONES
BUT WEAK FRONTAL FORCING COULD PERHAPS HELP TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION THERE AS WELL.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL AMBIENT NUMBERS
THROUGH 14Z THUS...FCST HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. DID MAKE
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO MIMIC
CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
THIS FCST PACKAGE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/13



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VLIFR-VFR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20. IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD QUICKLY 13-15Z FOR MOST SITES. L/V WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SE 5-10KTS AND THEN BACK TO ENE OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR
FROPA OCCURS. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS LATE IN THE CYCLE WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY WHICH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER AR BY 29/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
722 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR CNTL LA PARISHES AS
OBS NR FT POLK NOW HAVE SHOWN VSBYS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
DURING THE PAST HOUR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 9 AM. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
722 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR CNTL LA PARISHES AS
OBS NR FT POLK NOW HAVE SHOWN VSBYS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
DURING THE PAST HOUR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 9 AM. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261222
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
722 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE OUR CNTL LA PARISHES AS
OBS NR FT POLK NOW HAVE SHOWN VSBYS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
DURING THE PAST HOUR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 9 AM. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
YIELDING LIFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW HRS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH ALL SITES EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WITH LOW CIGS AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO RETURN. WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO BE
A BIT MORE ROBUST...WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS FCST
PERIOD.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

24

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 261117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



000
FXUS64 KSHV 261117
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ON THE WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND TOWARD THE FOUR STATE AREA. TO THE WEST A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DOTTED THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY LINE
TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS...WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. ALOFT A
MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPED INTO ARIZONA AND MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
REACHING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA WHERE THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED.
THE DRY LINE WILL BRANCH TO THE SOUTH FROM A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
BE OVER THE LOWER PAN HANDLE REGION OF TEXAS. ADD TO THIS
RETURNING AND INCREASING GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL FOR TODAY...BUT
BY TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MID WEST AND
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL NUDGE THE FRONT
INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER TEXAS AND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH OKLAHOMA AND EAST
INTO ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX LATE IN THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGION WILL BE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD ARKANSAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THEN
EAST ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REACH
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH THE NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REACHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN
INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REACH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEAR WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. OUR
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND THE SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS SHIFT EAST. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM BY
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE AREA WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. /06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  61  68  55 /  20  40  70  70
MLU  86  59  71  54 /  20  30  70  70
DEQ  82  56  65  51 /  20  60  70  70
TXK  85  57  67  52 /  20  60  70  70
ELD  84  57  67  51 /  20  30  70  70
TYR  89  63  70  55 /  20  60  70  70
GGG  89  62  69  55 /  20  60  70  70
LFK  90  68  75  59 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24




000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261051
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
551 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL
CALLS FROM VARIOUS INDIVIDUALS REGARDING THE FOG DURING THE PAST
HOUR AND OBS SEEM TO INDICATE VSBYS OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. VSBYS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE HIGHER ACRS W
CNTL AND CNTL LA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  20  50  70  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  20  60  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  20  60  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  20  70  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ030>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-
     215-216-259>262.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLCH 261019
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
519 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UA PATTERN THIS MORNING MARKED BY SOMEWHAT DRY W/SW FLOW BETWEEN THE
IMPULSE THAT BROUGHT THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING AND
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER UPSTREAM: A DIGGING TROF W OF THE ROCKIES.
SFC HIGH PRES EAST OF THE REGION IS KEEPING A MOIST SLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE A COOL FRONT IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACRS CNTL OK
INTO CNTL ARK. REGIONAL RADARS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING.
HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE ATTM AS VSBYS HAVE BEEN NOT ONLY VRBL ACRS
THE AREA BUT HAVE ALSO BEEN FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN. A RECENT
CHECK OF AREA TRAFFIC CAMERAS ALSO INDICATES THE PATCHY NATURE OF
THE FOG. EITHER WAY...FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A RELATIVELY DRY DAY EXPECTED. WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW...A FEW ISLTD SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY ACRS SE TX AS MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE POTENT UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO
TX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THE
AREA IS STILL PROGGED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ZONE WITH MID/UPR JET
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE AS THE MID AND UPR LOW MOVE
ACRS NRN TX. AT THE SFC...LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SE TX ALONG A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE REGION. THIS COMBINATION
OF FACTORS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SVR...ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SVR STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE LIKELIEST
THREATS AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN DECENT LOW LVL SHEAR IN
PLACE. ON TOP OF THIS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN ACRS AN AREA.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE SVR
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC LOW TREKS EAST ACRS THE
COASTAL ZONES...AND NLY LOW LVL FLOW BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE
AIRMASS. RAIN CHCS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CROSSES THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND A DRY
NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THIS DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROF ON THURSDAY...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO GENERATE ANY RAIN.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY....AFTN HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 70S OR POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO
NR 80. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 60S ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES TO
LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
MDT SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES EAST OF
THE REGION. A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. SOME STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME STRONG MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SFC
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER TX MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
TROF ALOFT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH
MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  65  75  59 /  10  20  60  70
LCH  85  71  79  64 /  10  20  70  60
LFT  88  70  79  67 /  10  20  70  70
BPT  86  73  80  64 /  10  20  70  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...24



000
FXUS64 KLIX 260837
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH MORE QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS. ANY CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG...MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT
WILL BE RATHER WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME
STATIONARY.

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE
ROCKIES CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCH RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN
COME INTO PLAY AND PROVIDE LIFT TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS
NEAR THE COAST OR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY TREND WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES ARE BOUNCING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...MOSTLY FOR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CEILINGS
SHOULD NOT GET LOWER THAN 300FT FOR ANY ONE LOCATION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SITES DROPPING TO 1/4SM VIS. WILL ONLY TEMPO THE
1/4 MILES VIS GROUPS SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BE FLEETING
AND ONLY FOR THOSE SITE OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AND THEREFORE WILL NOT
CARRY IN ANY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL EASE THROUGH TODAY FROM AROUND 15KTS TO 5-10KTS LATER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE SEVERE MAINLY FOR WATER EAST OF THE MISS RIVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 15-20KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE TO THE EAST JUST OFF
THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY...NW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS
UNTIL THU NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  65  78  60 /  10  20  50  60
BTR  90  68  79  65 /  10  20  60  70
ASD  88  69  79  67 /  10  20  50  70
MSY  88  72  79  69 /  10  20  60  70
GPT  86  70  78  67 /  10  20  50  70
PQL  88  68  79  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECTING NWRD TOWARD
DAYBREAK OVER E TX. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS AT THE S
AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR WRN SITES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  75  58  64 /  30  50  60  70
MLU  61  75  58  65 /  20  50  60  70
DEQ  58  68  52  62 /  40  50  60  70
TXK  62  74  55  63 /  30  50  60  70
ELD  60  69  53  64 /  20  50  60  70
TYR  64  76  55  65 /  30  50  60  60
GGG  62  75  57  65 /  30  50  60  60
LFK  69  78  62  69 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 260505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECTING NWRD TOWARD
DAYBREAK OVER E TX. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS AT THE S
AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR WRN SITES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  75  58  64 /  30  50  60  70
MLU  61  75  58  65 /  20  50  60  70
DEQ  58  68  52  62 /  40  50  60  70
TXK  62  74  55  63 /  30  50  60  70
ELD  60  69  53  64 /  20  50  60  70
TYR  64  76  55  65 /  30  50  60  60
GGG  62  75  57  65 /  30  50  60  60
LFK  69  78  62  69 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 260505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECTING NWRD TOWARD
DAYBREAK OVER E TX. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS AT THE S
AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR WRN SITES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  75  58  64 /  30  50  60  70
MLU  61  75  58  65 /  20  50  60  70
DEQ  58  68  52  62 /  40  50  60  70
TXK  62  74  55  63 /  30  50  60  70
ELD  60  69  53  64 /  20  50  60  70
TYR  64  76  55  65 /  30  50  60  60
GGG  62  75  57  65 /  30  50  60  60
LFK  69  78  62  69 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KSHV 260505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ADVECTING NWRD TOWARD
DAYBREAK OVER E TX. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS AT THE S
AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON OUR WRN SITES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  75  58  64 /  30  50  60  70
MLU  61  75  58  65 /  20  50  60  70
DEQ  58  68  52  62 /  40  50  60  70
TXK  62  74  55  63 /  30  50  60  70
ELD  60  69  53  64 /  20  50  60  70
TYR  64  76  55  65 /  30  50  60  60
GGG  62  75  57  65 /  30  50  60  60
LFK  69  78  62  69 /  30  50  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLCH 260452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT LCH AND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE AREA. LFT MAY PROVE TO BE THE BEST ALTERNATE
WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS. OTHERWISE VLIFR APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT LCH AND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE AREA. LFT MAY PROVE TO BE THE BEST ALTERNATE
WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS. OTHERWISE VLIFR APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT LCH AND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE AREA. LFT MAY PROVE TO BE THE BEST ALTERNATE
WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS. OTHERWISE VLIFR APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT LCH AND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE AREA. LFT MAY PROVE TO BE THE BEST ALTERNATE
WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS. OTHERWISE VLIFR APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260302
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 260302
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 260302
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...04




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 260246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

05



000
FXUS64 KSHV 260246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

05




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260246
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
946 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH BY DAYBREAK. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOME AREAS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05

05




000
FXUS64 KLIX 260052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING AS ALL CONVECTION WAS WELL
DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. SOUNDING HAS STABILIZED TO A SURFACE
BASED LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -4...UP FROM -10 EARLIER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.37 INCHES WITH A DRY LAYER NOTED BETWEEN
600 AND 500 MB. WINDS WERE SW ENTIRE COLUMN FROM 10KT AT THE
SURFACE TO A PEAK OF 118KT AT 41.9KFT. BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB OR
21.5 MILES UP AND 86 MILES DOWNRANGE ENE...ALONG HIGHWAY 16 WEST
OF GRAND BAY ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 260052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING AS ALL CONVECTION WAS WELL
DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. SOUNDING HAS STABILIZED TO A SURFACE
BASED LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -4...UP FROM -10 EARLIER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.37 INCHES WITH A DRY LAYER NOTED BETWEEN
600 AND 500 MB. WINDS WERE SW ENTIRE COLUMN FROM 10KT AT THE
SURFACE TO A PEAK OF 118KT AT 41.9KFT. BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB OR
21.5 MILES UP AND 86 MILES DOWNRANGE ENE...ALONG HIGHWAY 16 WEST
OF GRAND BAY ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 260052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING AS ALL CONVECTION WAS WELL
DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. SOUNDING HAS STABILIZED TO A SURFACE
BASED LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -4...UP FROM -10 EARLIER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.37 INCHES WITH A DRY LAYER NOTED BETWEEN
600 AND 500 MB. WINDS WERE SW ENTIRE COLUMN FROM 10KT AT THE
SURFACE TO A PEAK OF 118KT AT 41.9KFT. BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB OR
21.5 MILES UP AND 86 MILES DOWNRANGE ENE...ALONG HIGHWAY 16 WEST
OF GRAND BAY ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 260052
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH LAUNCH THIS EVENING AS ALL CONVECTION WAS WELL
DOWNRANGE OF THE STATION. SOUNDING HAS STABILIZED TO A SURFACE
BASED LIFTED INDEX OF ONLY -4...UP FROM -10 EARLIER. PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS AROUND 1.37 INCHES WITH A DRY LAYER NOTED BETWEEN
600 AND 500 MB. WINDS WERE SW ENTIRE COLUMN FROM 10KT AT THE
SURFACE TO A PEAK OF 118KT AT 41.9KFT. BALLOON BURST AT 5.8 MB OR
21.5 MILES UP AND 86 MILES DOWNRANGE ENE...ALONG HIGHWAY 16 WEST
OF GRAND BAY ALABAMA. 24/RR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLCH 260005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11



000
FXUS64 KLCH 260005
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




000
FXUS64 KSHV 260000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
700 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD
ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND JUST BRIEFLY
DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH MID MORNING. SCT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/15Z
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LGT/VRBL WINDS
AT THE S AR SITES WHILE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
/19/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



000
FXUS64 KLIX 252130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 252130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLIX 252130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS64 KLIX 252130
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...QUIET THE ACTIVE DAY TODAY. STRONG JET STREAK CAME
ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG
WITH WITH MULTIPLE BNDRYS AND PRODUCED A STOUT LINE OF TSRA THAT
BROUGHT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS AREAS EAST OF I-55. BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
SHRA AND EVEN AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR TWO BACK WEST THAT WILL IMPACT
SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVN.

COMPLICATED FCST IN STORE THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AND STALL OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME S/W RIDGING WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH A STOUTER CAP IN
PLACE. ONE LAST THING MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN
PREV DAYS AND ALL OF THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. THAT
SAID WE WILL BE MUCH WARMER TOMORROW AND ANOTHER JET STREAK COULD
COME ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE VERY LEAST WE COULD BE UNDER THE
RRQ OF A 140KT JET CORE. THIS COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET JUST
ONE OR TWO STORMS GOING AND THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THAT SAID TOMORROW SHOULD BE FAR
QUIETER THAN TODAY BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE FOR THE WORSE MON
AND MON NIGHT.

HEADING INTO MONDAY OUR FRONT WILL STILL STALLED OVER THE REGION
COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA. CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS SUN WILL TRACK EAST TWRDS THE SRN PLAINS MON AND
MON NIGHT. THIS WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL
PUTTING THE REGION UNDER MORE FAVORABLE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE
SAME TIME THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING
TWRDS THE NCTRL GULF. MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LIFT OVER THE REGION
AND FORCING/FOCUS AT THE SFC WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE PROBLEM DEVELOPING BY AFTN. AS FOR STRONG TO SVR...THE WAY
THINGS HAVE GONE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE
RATHER SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL TO OUR WEST BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF
THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE MON.

RAIN COULD LINGER WELL INTO TUE AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY WORKS
EAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AND PUSH EAST PUTTING
THE REGION UNDER MUCH DRIER NW FLOW LEADING TO A MUCH QUIETER
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ONE CAVEAT...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO BREAK OFF A PIECE OF THE OLD CUT OFF LOW AND CLOSING IT
OFF OVER THE GULF SOUTH LEADING TO A COOL WET FCST. LIKE PREV FCST
HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AND KEPT THE COOLER AND DRIER FCST
BUT WILL SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AND IF ANY OTHER MDLS GRAB
ONTO IT. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...MONITORING CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAS
HAD GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT SEVERAL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE THREAT OF
THUNDER WILL HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER CONVECTION DEPARTS...AND THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT MOST TERMINALS AFTER 06Z...BUT WINDS MAY STAY JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG. LITTLE...IF
ANY...CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL NOT CARRY A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST TX COAST AND MOVE NEAR OUR COAST. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 15-20KTS. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT
AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS UNTIL THU NIGHT.


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY
             NIGHT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  67  88  66  79 /  10  10  20  50
BTR  69  90  69  81 /  10  10  20  60
ASD  70  88  70  80 /  10  10  20  50
MSY  72  88  72  81 /  10  10  20  60
GPT  72  86  70  79 /  10  10  20  40
PQL  71  86  69  80 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLCH 252044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 252044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 252044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KLCH 252044
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...27




000
FXUS64 KSHV 252000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 18Z TAF
PD. SOME STRATUS/BR IS EXPECTED FOR KLFK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
S OF I-20. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL AND WILL
REMAIN SO AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  61  88  61 /  10   0  10  30
MLU  87  62  86  61 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  87  52  85  58 /  10   0  20  40
TXK  88  57  86  62 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  87  58  86  60 /  10   0  10  20
TYR  90  64  89  64 /  10   0  20  30
GGG  89  63  89  62 /  10   0  20  30
LFK  89  67  90  69 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



000
FXUS64 KSHV 252000
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 18Z TAF
PD. SOME STRATUS/BR IS EXPECTED FOR KLFK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY
S OF I-20. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRBL AND WILL
REMAIN SO AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  61  88  61 /  10   0  10  30
MLU  87  62  86  61 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  87  52  85  58 /  10   0  20  40
TXK  88  57  86  62 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  87  58  86  60 /  10   0  10  20
TYR  90  64  89  64 /  10   0  20  30
GGG  89  63  89  62 /  10   0  20  30
LFK  89  67  90  69 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251958
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
MIXED BAG AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF SQ. WE HAVE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR
KLFK. TERMINALS OF I-20 IN LA MAY SEE A BRIEF VCTS
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED FORCING...BUT THINK THE RAIN COOLED AIR
WILL HOLD FAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG AT KTXK AND KELD.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CLIMB WINDS ALREADY THERE WITH
W/SW FLOW 30-50KTS FROM 1 TO 8KFT. SW AT 100KTS BY FL300.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/99



000
FXUS64 KSHV 251958
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
MIXED BAG AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF SQ. WE HAVE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR
KLFK. TERMINALS OF I-20 IN LA MAY SEE A BRIEF VCTS
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED FORCING...BUT THINK THE RAIN COOLED AIR
WILL HOLD FAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG AT KTXK AND KELD.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CLIMB WINDS ALREADY THERE WITH
W/SW FLOW 30-50KTS FROM 1 TO 8KFT. SW AT 100KTS BY FL300.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/99




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251958
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FILLING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WHICH IS
AIDING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EXTREME SE TX COAST INT SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST LA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FILLING TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH MIXING HELPING TO DRY OUT SFC DEWPOINTS. WE WERE
NOT ABLE TO MIX THE STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC
TODAY SO FOR THAT REASON...WILL CANCEL THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM PROGS SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT FROM SE TX AND S LA WITH THIS MOISTURE MAKING IT NEARLY
TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AR AND EAST CENTRAL OK...MAKING IT
INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND PUSHING SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SFC HEATING...RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED OUR NW ZONES IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY BUT FEEL LIKELY OUT BEST CHANCES
OF SEEING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT COVERAGE
WILL KEEP ME FROM MAKING ANY MENTION OF THIS IN THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

A VERY WET PERIOD WILL BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST IS SLOW TO EJECT
OUT. VIGOROUS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING UP PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STORMS TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THAT MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS SAW BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE CONVECTION LAST NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMOUNT THE MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
AR. BY TUE NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE BE IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE RAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEAN
THIS DRIER PATTERN CHANGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
MIXED BAG AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF SQ. WE HAVE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR
KLFK. TERMINALS OF I-20 IN LA MAY SEE A BRIEF VCTS
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED FORCING...BUT THINK THE RAIN COOLED AIR
WILL HOLD FAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG AT KTXK AND KELD.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CLIMB WINDS ALREADY THERE WITH
W/SW FLOW 30-50KTS FROM 1 TO 8KFT. SW AT 100KTS BY FL300.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  88  61  75 /   0  10  30  50
MLU  62  86  61  75 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  52  85  58  68 /   0  20  40  50
TXK  57  86  62  74 /   0  10  30  50
ELD  58  86  60  69 /   0  10  20  50
TYR  64  89  64  76 /   0  20  30  50
GGG  63  89  62  75 /   0  20  30  50
LFK  67  90  69  78 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13/99




000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04




000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KLCH 251720
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MID TEXAS COAST.  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THIS WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
LATEST HRRR KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH MOST OF AFTERNOON WITH LESS COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. FOR
ARA...WILL HAVE TEMPO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE VCTS FOR THE REMAINING SITES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IS CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP MOST CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECASTED BY MID MORNING.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR LOW OVER
KS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SOUTH ACRS OK AND TX. AMPLE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION ON SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS TWO MAIN CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS UPSTREAM ACRS THE HILL COUNTRY IN TX.
THIS IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND WILL BEAR
WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN.

DISCUSSION...
LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACRS TX MOVING INTO
OUR AREA LIKELY AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO BE CONCENTRATED ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS FCST TO
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE OUR S CNTL LA ZONES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH PW VALUES RUNNING CLOSE TO 1.8
INCHES...AND LIFT WILL BE HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION BENEATH THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT...SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AMIDST MODT LOW LVL SHEAR.

RAIN CHCS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE MAIN
ENERGY WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK
FROM THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM WILL BEGIN TAKING SHAPE AS AN UPR LOW DIVES
SE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL EJECT INTO
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH A MOIST AND DIVERGENT SWLY FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER TX ON MONDAY...WITH A MIDLVL JET TRANSLATING EAST
TOWARD ERN TX. EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER TX SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACRS THE AREA MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH WIND PROFILES SHOWING STRONG VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE
REGION HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLT RISK FOR SVR STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIKELY POPS REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE EAST NR THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SFC
LOW...WITH DRIER NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL FINALLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN...WITH DRIER...COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 50S...COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPING.

24

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  89  66  79 /  10  20  20  60
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60
LFT  69  88  69  82 /  10  20  20  60
BPT  69  85  70  81 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04



000
FXUS64 KSHV 251630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
MIXED BAG AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF SQ. WE HAVE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR
KLFK. TERMINALS OF I-20 IN LA MAY SEE A BRIEF VCTS
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED FORCING...BUT THINK THE RAIN COOLED AIR
WILL HOLD FAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG AT KTXK AND KELD.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CLIMB WINDS ALREADY THERE WITH
W/SW FLOW 30-50KTS FROM 1 TO 8KFT. SW AT 100KTS BY FL300.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  64  89  62 /  10   0  10  30
MLU  86  66  87  61 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  86  55  85  57 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  87  59  86  58 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  86  60  85  57 /  10   0  10  20
TYR  89  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  30
GGG  88  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  30
LFK  88  67  89  67 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/13




000
FXUS64 KSHV 251630
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OUR SE PARISHES ATTM. UPDATE WILL
INCLUDE LOWERING POPS ACROSS THIS AREA AND REMOVING THEM
COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. ALSO CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO ERODE FROM THE WEST SO DELAYED THIS A BIT. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AS THESE WILL BE THE
LAST AREAS TO SEE SUN...THUS A LITTLE COOLER THAN OUT WEST.
STRONGER WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO MIX DOWN BUT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY...FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD COME
CLOSE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DID NOT CHANGE THE
ADVISORY AREA.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
MIXED BAG AT OUR TERMINALS IN THE WAKE OF SQ. WE HAVE A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COASTAL BEND LIFTING NE THAT HAS ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS FOR
KLFK. TERMINALS OF I-20 IN LA MAY SEE A BRIEF VCTS
CONDITIONS FROM ELEVATED FORCING...BUT THINK THE RAIN COOLED AIR
WILL HOLD FAST AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOG AT KTXK AND KELD.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY NEXT CYCLE WITH GUSTY SW SFC WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CLIMB WINDS ALREADY THERE WITH
W/SW FLOW 30-50KTS FROM 1 TO 8KFT. SW AT 100KTS BY FL300.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  64  89  62 /  10   0  10  30
MLU  86  66  87  61 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  86  55  85  57 /  10   0  10  40
TXK  87  59  86  58 /  10   0  10  30
ELD  86  60  85  57 /  10   0  10  20
TYR  89  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  30
GGG  88  63  88  63 /  10   0  10  30
LFK  88  67  89  67 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

24/13



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities